每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 宏观】货币宽松"再发力"——5月7日央行一揽子货币政策点评 降准降息落地，在关键时点释放出"适度宽松"来"稳增长、稳市场"的明确信号，体现了央行前瞻部署、主 动作为。 一揽子三大类 10 项货币政策组合，体现了货币政策总量与结构协同发力，对实体和资本市场的 全面支持。在外部关税冲击、内需还待提振的背景下，央行宽松周期预计将延续，接下来如果经济压力进 一步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 财政或继续加快债券发行节奏，尤其是增加对消费领域支持力度，如有必要，下半年或继续增加全年财政 额度；房地产政策也有望进一步放松。另外 ，出口方面的针对性支持政策也在加码。 短期来看，关税摩擦对市场预期的影响相比于前期可能已在减弱，预期冲击最大的时候可能已经过去。 不 过从对经济的影响来看，实际冲击可能从 4 月数据开始逐步显现，再加上当前内需还要进一步巩固的背景 下，更需关注接下来国内经济基本面变化：一是 4 月出口可能还有前期抢出口的支撑，但 5 、 6 月份数 据可能会明显体现关税的冲击；二是地产的止跌企稳可能还需要更多政策支持，三是居民部门资产负债表 压力或未明显缓解。 ...

·概 要 · 5月7日国新办召开新闻发布会，央行行长宣布三大类一共10项金融支持政策，货币宽松明显 发力支持"稳增长、稳预期"，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 降准降息落地，在关键时点释放出"适度宽松"来"稳增长、稳市场"的明确信号，体现了央行前 瞻部署、主动作为。一揽子三大类10项货币政策组合，体现了货币政策总量与结构协同发 力，对实体和资本市场的全面支持。在外部关税冲击、内需还待提振的背景下，央行宽松周期 预计将延续，接下来如果经济压力进一步增加，降息降准等仍有空间。 财政或继续加快债券发行节奏，尤其是增加对消费领域支持力度，如有必要，下半年或继续增 加全年财政额度；房地产政策也有望进一步放松。另外，出口方面的针对性支持政策也在加 码。 短期来看，关税摩擦对市场预期的影响相比于前期可能已在减弱，预期冲击最大的时候可能已 经过去。不过从对经济的影响来看，实际冲击可能从4月数据开始逐步显现，再加上当前内需 还要进一步巩固的背景下，更需关注接下来国内经济基本面变化：一是4月出口可能还有前期 抢出口的支撑，但5、6月份数据可能会明显体现关税的冲击；二是地产的止跌企稳可能还需 要更多政策支持，三 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that a series of financial policies are expected to support market stability and economic growth, with a focus on monetary easing and technological innovation [1][2] - The People's Bank of China has introduced 10 policy measures aimed at increasing long-term liquidity, lowering financing costs, and stabilizing the real estate market, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, which is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan [1] - The report highlights that the financial regulatory authority will implement 8 policies to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, including accelerating the introduction of financing systems compatible with new real estate development models [1][2] Group 2 - Short-term trends indicate that A-shares may experience a strong oscillation, supported by policies that could enhance economic growth and corporate profit expectations, such as lower interest rates and support for real estate financing [2][3] - The report suggests that the policies will lead to a significant short-term increase in liquidity, which may attract capital inflows into the stock market, thereby enhancing market risk appetite [2] - The mid-term outlook indicates a solidification of a slow bull market logic for A-shares, as the policies are expected to improve credit conditions and corporate profitability [2] Group 3 - The report identifies that the policy package may create short-term investment opportunities in technology, core assets, and large financial sectors, driven by a focus on technological innovation and liquidity support [3][5] - It notes that the policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market could also benefit core assets in finance, consumption, and healthcare sectors [5]

美国国债在美联储利率决议前下跌，因面对显示经济韧性的数据，投资者押注货币宽松步伐将放缓。 对投资者来说，问题是如何权衡近期一些调查中看到的经济悲观情绪与就业等顶级指标所显示的韧性。虽然4月份美国消费者信心跌至近五年低点，但非农 就业人数超过了彭博社编制的所有预测。 未平仓合约数据显示，在周五就业数据公布后，曲线前端出现去杠杆化和头寸平仓，与多头头寸的清算一致。周二的摩根大通美债客户调查显示，中性头寸 仍处于高位，接近年度高点。"在我看来，目前要对美债做出特别高确信度的判断仍然很难，"Pepperstone策略师迈克尔.布朗表示。"就关税对宏观的影响而 言，债券市场参与者最终会站在哪一边仍有待观察，增长下行和通胀上行风险几乎同样普遍。" 预计美联储周三将维持基准利率在4.25%-4.50%不变，交易员将密切关注美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔的言论，以了解官员们对近期数据的解读，以及总统唐纳 德.特朗普的经济政策是否促使他们对何时放松政策的看法发生任何变化。 这是因为对进口商品征收关税削弱了消费者信心，同时也可能加剧价格压力。"这次会议对预期的影响可能比往常更大，因为这是互征关税声明后的首次利 率决议，"德国商业银行利 ...

Market Overview - On May 7, A-shares saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.64% to 3337.23 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.19% to 10101.18 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.40% to 1994.38 points [1] - The total market saw 3481 stocks rise and 1712 stocks fall, with 99 stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] - The total trading volume for the two markets reached 965.8 billion [1] Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion in long-term liquidity to the market [2] - A policy interest rate cut of 0.1 percentage points was also announced, lowering the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] Real Estate Sector - Following the policy announcements, the real estate sector showed initial strength, with stocks like Sanxiang Impression and Tianbao Infrastructure hitting the daily limit up [3] - A report from Huatai Securities indicated that the real estate industry is entering a phase of incremental policy support, with a focus on core cities, particularly first-tier cities, for recovery [3] Military and Transportation Sectors - The military sector experienced significant gains, with stocks such as Tongyi Aerospace and Chenxi Aviation hitting the daily limit up [3] - The intelligent transportation and ride-hailing sectors also performed actively, with stocks like Dazhong Transportation and Jinjiang Online reaching the daily limit up [4] Underperforming Sectors - The film and cinema sector lagged, with Shanghai Film dropping over 5%, and other stocks like Happiness Blue Sea and Ao Fei Entertainment also declining [5] - AI applications and semiconductor stocks saw declines, with companies like Runze Technology and Data Port experiencing varying degrees of downturn [5] Market Sentiment - Analysts noted that the market's reaction to the central bank's policies was largely in line with expectations, indicating that the anticipated monetary easing had already been priced in [5] - The continuation and strengthening of policies are expected to alleviate concerns regarding economic weakness and stabilize the capital market [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that certain incremental policies will be introduced by the end of June, with the timing dependent on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1] - The current interest rate differential between China and the US is significant, and if the Federal Reserve does not lower rates, China may have to maintain its current stance to prevent capital outflow [1] - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve may lower rates in May, which would likely prompt the Chinese central bank to take action around mid-May [1] Group 2 - Short-term pressure exists on bank stocks due to disappointing earnings, but long-term investment interest remains focused on dividend yields [3] - A decline in bank stocks often leads to a shift in market dynamics, with growth stocks performing better when bank stocks fall [3] - The performance of bank stocks has been lackluster, with growth rates declining from around 5% to stagnation or even decreases [4] Group 3 - The first quarter reports from the six major banks have been collectively disclosed [5] - The market may be entering a phase characterized by a focus on individual stocks rather than overall index performance, with large-cap stocks like banks dragging down indices while small-cap stocks thrive [7] - After a month of volatility, market sentiment is improving, and if no significant negative news arises during the upcoming holiday, positive sentiment may continue [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Standing at the end of April and looking forward to May, investors' preference for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds has increased, while their attention to credit products has decreased month - on - month, but there may be a characteristic of "being bullish but not taking action" [1][10]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of April, six mainstream expectations of investors for the May bond market are summarized: preference for long - term and ultra - long - term bonds has increased significantly; Trump's tariff policy may promote the early implementation of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cut policies, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue; the current expectation of monetary easing is still strong, with most investors expecting an RRR cut in May - June and an interest rate cut more likely in the third quarter; most investors believe that the bond market will strengthen overall in May, and the probability of a bull - flattening curve is high; most investors' judgments on the operating ranges of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields are narrow, and the market is expected to be mainly volatile; in terms of operations, most investors are neutral in practice and prefer to keep their positions basically stable, possibly showing "being bullish but not taking action" [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Survey Background - A bond market questionnaire "What to expect from the May bond market?" was released on April 25, 2025, targeting the main concerns of the May 2025 bond market. As of 24:00 on April 27, a total of 331 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional investors such as bank self - operation, securities firm self - operation, public funds/special accounts, and individual investors [8]. 3.2 Expectations for Treasury Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: 48% of investors think the lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond rate is below 1.60%, and 45% think it is between 1.60% - 1.70% (inclusive). 76% of investors believe the upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond rate may be within 1.80%, and 11% think it may be between 1.80% - 1.85% (inclusive). Most investors expect the bond market in May to trade around the tariff policy, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate is unlikely to return to the previous high in April [11]. - **30 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: 41% of investors think the lower limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond operating range in May will be less than 1.8%, and 43% think it is between 1.80% - 1.85% (inclusive). 53% of investors believe the upper limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond operating range in May is between 1.90% - 2.00% (inclusive), and 31% think it is within 1.90%. The overall bond market in May may be volatile and slightly stronger [14]. 3.3 Expectations for the Second - Quarter Economic Trend - 62% of investors think the economic trend in the second quarter will be "both year - on - year and month - on - month weakening", a significant increase compared with the April questionnaire results. 22% of investors think it will show the characteristic of "year - on - year recovery but month - on - month weaker than the seasonal level". 10% of investors think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month in line with the seasonal level", and 5% think it will be "year - on - year recovery and month - on - month exceeding the seasonal level", a significant decrease compared with the April questionnaire results. The deviation between the economic fundamental expectation and the reality needs a certain verification period [19]. 3.4 Expectations for RRR and Interest Rate Cuts - **RRR Cut**: 66% of investors think an RRR cut will occur in May - June, and 17% think it will be in the third quarter. Investors have a high expectation for an RRR cut and expect it to happen earlier [21]. - **Interest Rate Cut**: 49% of investors think an interest rate cut will occur in the third quarter, 31% think it will be in May - June. 12% of investors think there will be no interest rate cut in 2025. Investors' expectation for an interest rate cut has further strengthened, and the proportion of those who think there will be no interest rate cut in 2025 has decreased significantly [21]. 3.5 Impact of Trump's Tariff Policy on the Bond Market - 46% of investors think it may promote the early implementation of RRR and interest rate cut policies, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue. 27% think the subsequent focus will be on the expectation of tariff policy cooling, and the positive impact on the bond market has ended. 15% think it may trigger non - US countries to impose tariffs on China, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue. 12% think it may strengthen the policy - makers' determination to stabilize the capital market, and the positive impact on the bond market has ended. Overall, investors generally think the subsequent impact of Trump's tariff policy on the bond market is still positive [23]. 3.6 Expectations for the May Bond Market行情 - 27% of investors think the interest rate curve will strengthen overall and show a bull - flattening trend in May. 26% think it will strengthen overall and show a bull - steepening trend. 16% think it is difficult to judge the trend of the interest rate curve in May. 10% think the short - end of the interest rate curve will be strong and the long - end will be weak, and 10% think the short - end will be weak and the long - end will be strong. Overall, more investors are optimistic about the May bond market, but there is some divergence between the expectations of a bull - flattening and a bull - steepening curve [25]. 3.7 Bond Market Operation Suggestions - 49% of investors think they should keep their positions basically stable. 23% think they should hold cash and wait, and then add positions after the market回调 to the expected level. 13% think they can start adding positions. 11% think they should take appropriate profits and reduce positions. 4% think they should reduce the duration to control risks. Most investors are neutral in practice, and keeping positions stable is the mainstream view [29]. 3.8 Preferred Bond Varieties in May - 18% and 17% of investors think the opportunities for long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds are relatively certain. 15%, 10%, and 10% of investors are more optimistic about medium - short - term interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and local government bonds respectively. About 9% of investors prefer medium - low - grade urban investment bonds. Investors have a higher preference for interest - rate products such as interest - rate bonds, certificates of deposit, and government bonds, and their preference for credit products has decreased month - on - month. The preferred varieties have shifted from the short - end to the long - end and ultra - long - end [32]. 3.9 Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in May - 31% of investors think the central bank's monetary policy attitude and the trend of the capital market are still the main pricing logics for the May bond market. 16% and 15% of investors think fiscal stimulus, government bond issuance, and fundamental data such as real estate and PMI are the main pricing logics. 13% of investors think the implementation of the US tariff policy is the main pricing logic. The central bank's monetary policy attitude and the trend of the capital market are still the most concerned factors for investors [34].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - More incremental hedging policies are expected to be introduced around the conclusion of the China - US tariff negotiations, on top of the existing policies. The current focus is on accelerating the implementation of existing policies and optimizing the economic structure [5]. - The window for monetary easing is approaching, and it may be more targeted at directly reaching the real economy. The timing of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate cuts will depend on subsequent economic and financing data, as well as the outcome of tariff negotiations [6]. - In the real estate sector, the focus is on risk prevention and optimization of the policy for purchasing existing commercial housing. The stabilization of housing prices after a series of real - estate optimization policies is an important indicator for the medium - term inflection point of interest rates [7]. - In the short term, the impact of the actual fundamentals depends on the outcome of trade negotiations and the effectiveness of policy hedging. In the medium term, bond yields are expected to decline in a volatile manner [8]. 3) Summary by Related Content Policy Outlook - The Politburo meeting on April 25th analyzed the current economic situation. More incremental hedging policies will be introduced around the conclusion of the China - US tariff negotiations. The existing policies focus on optimizing the economic structure, with production - side emphasis on new - quality productivity and helping struggling enterprises, and demand - side emphasis on increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups and promoting service consumption [4][5]. - The "timely RRR cuts and interest rate cuts" mentioned in the meeting may indicate that the window for monetary easing is approaching. The specific timing will depend on economic and financing data and tariff outcomes. The focus is on preventing capital idling and directing funds to areas such as technological innovation, consumption expansion, and foreign - trade stability [6]. - In real estate, the meeting emphasized urban renewal, shantytown and dilapidated building renovation, and optimizing the policy for purchasing existing commercial housing. The stabilization of housing prices is crucial for the medium - term inflection point of interest rates [7]. Investment Strategy - Since April 2nd, the core logic of bond - market trading has shifted. The short - term impact of fundamentals depends on trade negotiations and policy hedging. The current bond yields already imply some expectations of interest rate cuts, and an interest rate cut may lead to a rate correction [7][8]. - In the medium term, bond yields are expected to decline in a volatile manner due to structural problems, the central bank's supportive attitude, and improved institutional behavior. It is recommended to conduct band trading of 10Y Treasury bonds in the 1.60% - 1.75% range and choose 10Y active bonds with high liquidity [8].

金十数据4月25日讯，东京4月份的通胀增长速度较上月加快，达到两年来的最高水平，为日本央行的加 息立场提供了支持。美国关税措施带来的不确定性，使日本央行的加息立场变得更加复杂。日本内务部 周五发布的一份报告显示，4月份不包括新鲜食品在内的东京核心CPI较上年同期上涨3.4%，原因是去 年学费下调以及食品和能源价格上涨加速了通胀，这一结果高于经济学家3.2%的预测中值。东京的整 体通胀年率从3月份的2.9%上升至3.5%。东京的通胀是衡量日本全国物价涨幅的领先指标。在日本公布 最新通胀数据之际，围绕美国总统特朗普关税行动的不确定性，给日本央行逐步加息、进一步缩减货币 宽松规模的计划带来了压力。 东京物价涨幅创两年来最大，支撑日本央行加息路径 ...

中金公司研报认为，特朗普扬言解雇鲍威尔，使美国货币政策站上了市场风口。该机构认为，美联储的 政策路径将取决于关税对通胀与需求的相对影响，而这又取决于关税的替代效应和收入效应哪个更强。 考虑两种情形，一种是美国与贸易伙伴的谈判缺乏实质性进展，90天后美国有效关税率仍然很高，此时 收入效应主导，经济需求走弱或促使美联储从7月份开始降息，全年累计降息幅度或达100个基点。另一 种情形是谈判取得成果，关税降低，替代效应主导下需求冲击相对温和，但通胀压力更具持续性，美联 储或延迟宽松步伐，全年仅在12月小幅降息一次。对市场而言，尽管第一种情形下货币宽松来得更早， 但这种"衰退式"降息反映的是经济基本面恶化，反而会对风险资产形成压制。 ...