Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its configuration value and positive fundamental factors accumulating [5][37]. Core Insights - The banking sector outperformed the market, with the banking index declining only 0.84% compared to a 1.75% drop in the CSI 300 index. Notably, state-owned banks showed a positive performance with a 0.80% increase [5][17]. - The recent Politburo meeting emphasized the continuation of proactive fiscal and monetary policies, which are expected to support bank credit and enhance the operating environment for banks [7][8]. - The restoration of VAT on newly issued government bonds is anticipated to increase banks' holding costs and affect their asset allocation strategies, leading to a decline in the actual comprehensive yield of various bonds [10][11]. - The implementation of interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans is expected to benefit retail banking, stimulating credit demand and enhancing market vitality [16][37]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The Politburo meeting on July 30 focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations, with a commitment to implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [7][8]. - The meeting also highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and developing new productive forces, which will benefit retail and technology finance businesses [9]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector's performance was relatively stable, with state-owned banks showing resilience. The overall banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio was 0.73, and the dividend yield was 4.09% as of August 1, 2025 [5][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the banking sector's basic positive factors are continuously accumulating, and an inflection point in performance is expected. It recommends focusing on the effectiveness of a package of policies and the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session [5][37]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), Agricultural Bank of China (601288), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Hangzhou Bank (600926) [5][37].

会上，9位委员企业家代表结合实际，从加快科技创新成果转化、加大科技创新领域金融支持、鼓 励民间资本参与创投、加快人工智能赋能千行百业、夯实数字底座、打造韧性智慧城市、加强人才引 育、文化创意产业发展、现代农业产业发展、促进共同富裕等方面提出意见建议。市发改委相关负责人 作回应发言。 马卫光不时与企业家互动交流。他说，大家的发言立足实际、直面问题、恳切务实、建议中肯，为 相关部门科学编制"十五五"规划拓展了思路、提供了参考。他指出，"十五五"时期是杭州抢抓战略机 遇、塑造发展新动能新优势的关键五年，高质量编制"十五五"规划是今年全市上下一件大事。市政协认 真贯彻省市委部署要求，将围绕做好"十五五"规划编制开展协商议政作为重点履职任务，组织开展多个 层面调研，扎实推进协商准备工作。企业家处于经济活动一线，对市场趋势的感受更敏锐，对产业发展 和科技创新的把握更直接。希望大家结合企业发展积极建言献策，为编制"十五五"规划提出更多有价值 的"金点子"。要进一步弘扬企业家精神，紧跟国家重大发展战略步伐，切实发挥企业创新主体作用，在 各行各业持续引领创新、推动发展，把高质量规划绘就的蓝图转化为高质量发展的实景。市相关部门要 ...

AA股股回回调调是是不不是是上上车车机机会会？？ 22002255年年77月月2288日日--22002255年年88月月11日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 本周A股、港股承压，债市震荡，黄金和美股小幅收跌。具体来看，本周市场有以下几个重要 方面 ： 本周A股、港股普遍承压，港股波动高于A股。虽然市场承压，但从成交量看，活跃度仍在高 位，本周内沪深两市日均成交额达到1.78万亿元，相比上周下降330亿元，变化幅度并不明 显。申万一级行业上，医药生物、通信、传媒行业领涨，领涨行业主要集中于景气成长方 向，煤炭、有色金属、房地产行业领跌，领跌行业主要集中于经济周期敏感度高的方向。 02 债市方面，本周资金面整体均衡，债市分化，利率债上涨，信用债小幅下跌，预计纯债基金 收益小幅收正。政策面上，本周召开政治局会议，对于经济定调偏乐观，短期工作重点 在"制定十五五"规划。资金面上，本周资金面整体均衡，对债市影响偏中性。基本面上，本 周公布制造业PMI数据仍位于荣枯线以下，对债市偏利好。 03 商品方面，COMEX黄金本周周度震荡走平，周三受美联储议息会议即将到来的影响，市场 避险情绪抬升，COMEX黄金高开，后结果符合市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of U.S. foreign policy and trade dynamics, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations, highlighting potential economic bifurcation and investment opportunities in technology sectors due to shifting geopolitical landscapes [2][5][11]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - The trade relationship between the U.S. and China is experiencing a shift, with China taking a more dominant role in negotiations compared to previous years [2][5]. - The potential for a "tariff spiral" is noted, drawing parallels to historical events in the 1930s, which could impact global trade and economic conditions [1][5]. - The U.S. currently accounts for 27% of global consumption, with strong performance in the Nasdaq indicating robust corporate earnings [6][20]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The demand for AI technologies is experiencing exponential growth, benefiting U.S. tech giants and potentially impacting A-shares in sectors like optical modules [2][20]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" in China emphasizes investment in technology, with high demand for computing power, servers, and semiconductors expected to persist throughout the year [2][18]. - The article suggests a focus on defensive asset classes such as bonds and utility stocks, as well as sectors related to security and technology, in light of geopolitical tensions [8][11]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The article indicates that corporate profitability may face deflationary pressures due to increased costs from tariffs and trade restrictions [8][11]. - The overall economic environment is characterized by high volatility and structural rotation, suggesting a need for strategic investment approaches [8][11]. - The anticipated return of capital to the U.S. markets is expected to favor domestic technology and debt markets, aligning with the "15th Five-Year Plan" objectives [18][20].

Macro Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of breaking through key bottlenecks to achieve high-quality development, focusing on technological breakthroughs and economic structure adjustments to stimulate domestic demand and improve income distribution [1][14] - Key industries to watch over the next five years include technology (new productivity), finance, agriculture, and energy, with specific attention to sectors such as robotics, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy [1][14] Fixed Income - The report discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy and the commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, which has influenced the market dynamics between commodities and bonds [2][15] - The issuance of secondary capital bonds totaled 109.9 billion yuan during the week of July 21-25, 2025, with a total trading volume of approximately 288.1 billion yuan, indicating increased market activity [4][20] - Green bond issuance reached approximately 35.99 billion yuan during the same period, reflecting a growing interest in sustainable finance [4][21] Industry Insights - The solid-state battery equipment sector is highlighted, with significant advancements in isostatic pressing technology, which is crucial for addressing solid-solid interface issues in solid-state batteries [6][7] - The report recommends focusing on leading suppliers of solid-state battery equipment, laser welding equipment, and formation capacity equipment, indicating a strong growth potential in these areas [7][8] - The waste-to-energy sector is projected to see substantial growth, with companies like Huanlan Environment expected to achieve a 15% annual growth rate over the next three years due to mergers and acquisitions [8]

Macro Overview - July PMI index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.3%, below expectations, indicating increased supply-demand contradictions[2] - The market experienced a volume decline with an average transaction amount of 1.8096 trillion yuan, down 39.1 billion yuan week-on-week[8] - The political bureau meeting in July did not exceed expectations, maintaining a steady growth tone and limited incremental policy information[2] Economic Indicators - GDP growth for Q3 is projected at 5.3% based on the first half of the year performance[10] - The unemployment rate in July rose slightly to 4.2%, with non-farm employment increasing by only 73,000, the lowest in nine months[2] - The M2 money supply growth rate is expected to remain stable, supporting liquidity in the market[2] Market Reactions - The bond market showed wide fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 17 basis points to 4.22%[8] - The U.S. stock market saw declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.92% and the S&P 500 down 2.36%[8] - Commodity prices, particularly crude oil and gold, increased by 3.22% and 2.41% respectively, reflecting market risk aversion[8] Policy Insights - The political bureau emphasized the need for stable and flexible fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on supporting consumption and small enterprises[10] - There is a call for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of domestic capital markets to stabilize market expectations[12] - The meeting highlighted the importance of addressing local government debt risks and promoting orderly competition among enterprises[10]

Group 1 - The market is expected to show a "first suppression and then rise" pattern in August, with a consolidation phase in early to mid-August and a potential recovery towards the end of the month [1][2] - Economic recovery is weak but supported by continuous policy stability and liquidity easing, with incremental funds flowing into the market [1][2] - Focus on "dumbbell strategy" for investment, balancing between high-quality growth stocks and sectors like AI, military trade, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][2][3] Group 2 - The market is likely to experience increased volatility in August, with a preference for mainstream styles and small-cap stocks due to liquidity-driven market characteristics [3] - Key sectors to watch include non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, power equipment, machinery, defense, and computers, with a focus on high-growth areas like AI applications and hardware [3][5] - The upcoming earnings season is crucial, with expectations for improved performance in high-demand sectors [4][5] Group 3 - Liquidity is expected to remain ample in August, with continued net inflows from financing, private equity, and industry ETFs, despite potential tightening pressures from government bond supply [4] - The market's risk appetite is improving, with significant net inflows into A-shares, indicating a positive trend for the second half of the year [4][5] - The focus on sectors with high profitability and competitive advantages, such as TMT and essential consumer goods, is recommended for investment [5][6] Group 4 - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference showcased significant advancements in AI commercialization, with over 800 companies participating and a record exhibition area [6] - The conference highlighted the growing importance of AI technologies and their applications across various industries, indicating a strong investment trend in this sector [6] Group 5 - The political landscape and economic policies are expected to support a stable recovery, with a focus on enhancing the attractiveness of the capital market and fostering long-term growth [24][25] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session is anticipated to set the stage for the "15th Five-Year Plan," which will focus on new productive forces and technological innovation [26][27]

展情况。 泉青城山生产基地。 省人大常委会组成人员参观的农夫山 现场教学环节，走进产业园了解区域产业发 □四川日报全媒体记者 刘佳 文/图7月23日—25日，2025年省人大常委会组成人员学习会在成都举 行，这是四川省人大常委会已坚持30年的一项重要制度性安排。开班动员会上，省委书记、省人 大常委会主任王晓晖要求，要在理论学习和参观考察中结合人大职能职责认真研究思考，不断提 高运用理论认识问题、分析问题、解决问题的能力。重点是要深入思考"十五五"人大工作怎么 干、人大如何在发展全过程人民民主中发挥职能作用、如何更好以科技赋能人大工作、人大如何 更好助力我省对外开放合作等一系列重大问题，从而更加自觉把自身工作摆到全省中心大局中来 谋划，确保全省人大工作顺应时代要求、适应四川发展需要、更加富有成效。带着问题去学习， 大家收获了什么？又有什么新的思考和打算？深学细悟筑牢履职尽责的思想根基"学习会犹如一 场'及时雨'，既为我们盘点过往、校准方向提供了思想坐标，也为锚定新目标、开启新征程注入 了强劲动能。"眉山市人大常委会主任刘先伟说，"王晓晖书记在开班式上发出的'四问'，帮助我 们进一步深化了对人大工作更好服务中心大 ...

Economic Outlook - The meeting emphasized the need to maintain strategic determination and focus on domestic issues amidst increasing international uncertainties[13] - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a resilient economic performance despite structural challenges[15] - The overall goal for the next five years is to achieve qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth, promoting comprehensive development and common prosperity[14] Policy Implementation - The focus for the second half of 2025 will be on "four stabilizations": stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[17] - Policies will prioritize the effective implementation of existing measures rather than introducing new incremental policies[17] - Emphasis on enhancing the flexibility and predictability of macroeconomic policies while maintaining continuity and stability[18] Consumer and Investment Strategies - The government plans to boost consumer demand through direct subsidies and expanding basic public services, particularly in education and childcare[20] - Fixed asset investment is projected to grow at a cumulative year-on-year rate of 2.8% in Q2 2025, reflecting ongoing investment challenges[19] Capital Market Focus - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market to sustain its recovery[25] - The capital market has shown resilience, rebounding since September 2024, and is expected to continue improving with supportive policies[26]

Core Insights - The market experienced its smoothest main upward phase since the beginning of the year in July, with a 3.74% increase and a maximum drawdown of 1.18% [3][6] - The "anti-involution" policies and the emphasis on stabilizing growth in key industries contributed to market acceleration and improved profit-making effects [3][6] - Small-cap, growth, and loss-making stocks outperformed in July, with sectors like steel, pharmaceuticals, building materials, and communications leading the gains [3][10] Market Performance Summary - In July, the market saw a significant increase, with the main index rising 3.74% and achieving the highest monthly Sharpe and Calmar ratios of the year [6][8] - The average number of stocks hitting the daily limit dropped from over 70 to around 50 by the end of July, indicating a slight easing in profit-making effects [3][43] - The small-cap index outperformed the large-cap index, with small-cap stocks rising 5.54% compared to 3.48% for large-cap stocks [10] Industry Analysis - The report highlights the importance of identifying companies that only incur losses in profits but maintain positive cash flow, particularly in the cement and chemical sectors [3][98] - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to drive excess returns, with a projected initial pulse of around 20 percentage points, particularly benefiting small-cap stocks [3][91] - Industries experiencing supply contraction and rising demand include upstream coking coal, midstream engineering machinery, and downstream white goods and pharmaceuticals [3][115] Thematic Investment Focus - The report emphasizes the significance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the industries benefiting from childbirth subsidies, including maternal and infant products, children's healthcare, and early education services [3][118] - Key areas of focus include digital transformation in industries and consumption services, particularly in regions like the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and the Yangtze River Delta [3][120]