Market Overview - The equity market has shown a strong upward trend, achieving a weekly three consecutive gains[1] - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index successfully surpassing 3500 points, boosting investor confidence[2] - The bond market experienced a downward trend, pressured by the strong performance of the equity market[3] Equity Market Insights - Financial sectors, including banks, securities, and real estate, have taken the lead in driving market growth, especially as the technology sector faced short-term setbacks[2] - The current market environment is characterized by uncertainty due to global trade tensions, particularly with the U.S. threatening to impose tariffs[2] - Short-term strategies suggest maintaining a balanced approach, holding both technology and financial sectors while considering service-oriented consumption[14] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market has shown a flat performance with an overall decline, influenced by the strong equity market which has limited upward potential for bonds[3] - Despite the short-term fluctuations, the overall liquidity remains loose, benefiting short-term bonds[5] Commodity Market Overview - Major commodities like oil and gold have shown lackluster performance, with the market remaining in a low-level oscillation phase[6] - The geopolitical situation and abundant oil supply continue to impact the global oil market negatively, while gold remains stable due to a weakening dollar[6] Investment Recommendations - For the equity market, it is recommended to focus on the financial sector for short-term gains while keeping an eye on the dual innovation sectors for long-term growth[14] - In the commodity market, maintaining a position in gold is advised for the short term, with a watchful eye on market developments for the long term[40]

上周，债券市场经历了一系列的调整波动。尽管股市的人气效应对债市资金产生了一定的吸引力，但业内人士普遍持有短期震荡的观点，依然看好债市的投 资前景。 近期，债券基金领域出现了一些引人注目的现象：不少债基出现大额赎回的情况。而改善目前债券资产供应的难点依然存在，存量债券价格不断被炒高，性 价比偏低。 市场风险偏好抬升，债市短期承压 上周（7月7日~7月13日），债市再次出现调整，体现在债券的价格下降，利率整体上行。十年国债利率从周初1.6425%抬升至1.666%，一年期国股大行存单 发行利率从1.59%升至1.62%。 上周纯债基金收益欠佳，多只产品被大额赎回 从基金的表现来看，上周中长期纯债基金、短债基金表现并不太理想，平均收益率均呈现负数。虽然有前述债市调整的缘故，但投资者情绪的确不高。 Wind统计显示，上周表现最好的纯债基金为淳厚稳荣一年定开，单周收益率达到0.40%，也是纯债基金当中业绩最好的一只。博时裕昂纯债A、创金合信创 和一个月A、圆信永丰兴瑞6个月等基金产品上周业绩排名也靠前。 其实，债市的调整既来自收益率的变化，也来自债券价格的变化。从收益率的角度来说，收益率下降意味着资金配置债券的需求增加 ...

新华财经北京7月14日电（王菁）债市周一（7月14日）延续弱势整理，国债期货主力全线收跌，银行间 现券收益率仍小幅回升；公开市场单日净投放1197亿元，短端资金品种显著上行。 机构认为，上周受"股债跷跷板"行情影响债市情绪有所受挫，但波动幅度尚在可控范围内，跨季后债券 配置需求依然偏强。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.18%报120.290，10年期主力合约跌0.08%报108.730，5年 期主力合约跌0.05%报105.920，2年期主力合约跌0.03%报102.380。 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍小幅上行，截至发稿，10年期国开债"25国开10"收益率上行0.75BP至 1.75%，10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率上行0.5BP至1.671%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率 上行0.75BP至1.8835%。 中证转债指数收盘跌0.42%，15只可转债跌幅超2%，惠城转债、汇通转债、志特转债、天源转债、金诚 转债跌幅居前，分别跌8.14%、4.26%、3.35%、3.02%、2.85%。涨幅方面，22只可转债涨幅超2%，锡 振转债、博汇转债、金铜转债、欧通转 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【 短 评 - 螺 纹 钢 】 Mysteel 调 研 247 家 钢 厂 高 炉 开 工 率 83.15%，环比上周减少0.31个百分点；高炉炼铁产能利用率 89.9%，环比上周减少0.39个百分点；钢厂盈利率59.74%，环比 上周增加0.43个百分点；日均铁水产量239.81万吨，环比上周 减少1.04万吨。评：反内卷情绪继续发酵，发改委提到加快新 型城镇化，市场对于棚改重启的预期升温，市场情绪表现积 极。淡季深入，降雨高温天气影响不断，螺纹需求回落，库存 延续去化。淡季基本面矛盾并不明显，"反内卷"政策叠加山 西限产消息形成的供给侧收缩预期，以及"城市更新"等需求 侧改善预期共同推动，宏观情绪升温，预计短期盘面表现震荡 偏强运行。 【短评-原油】IEA在月报：今年全球石油供应量较之前的 预测增加30万桶/日至210万桶/日。但近期石油需求显著放缓， 将2025年平均石油需求增长预期下调至70.4万桶/日，将2026年 平均石油需求增长预期下调至72.2万桶/日；贝克休斯公布的数 据显示，截止7月11日的一周，美国在线钻探油井数量424座， 比前周减少1座，为2021年9月份 ...

Group 1 - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2 - The core view of the report is that the suppression of the stock market's strength on the bond market is not severe, and the bond market's reaction to the stock market will gradually become dull. However, the bond market currently faces certain disturbances, and further opportunities to go long may require weaker economic high - frequency data, policy implementation, and the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle [4][26][27]. Group 3 1. How does the stock - bond seesaw play out? - The report calculated the dynamic correlation coefficient between the daily changes of the Shanghai Composite Index and the daily changes of the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate since 2015. It found that the stock - bond seesaw effect holds in most periods, with stock and bond markets generally moving in opposite directions. The weakening of the negative correlation mainly occurs during periods of obvious liquidity tightening or loosening, such as from 2016.07 - 2017.05 (liquidity tightening) and 2020.02 - 2022.10 (liquidity loosening). In the current bond market adjustment, the correlation between stocks and bonds has not significantly increased, and the stock market's impact on the bond market will decrease [4][11][13]. 2. How to view the subsequent bond market? - **Fundamental data disturbances**: In June, high - frequency port data showed that export performance remained resilient, and the spread between the six - month national and joint - stock bank bill rediscount rate and the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate indicated possible improvement in credit conditions, which may affect bond market interest rates [15][18]. - **Accelerated issuance of special bonds**: The issuance of local special bonds may accelerate significantly in July, increasing the supply pressure on the bond market. It may also disrupt the capital market and restrict the decline of bond market interest rates as it can boost local investment [20]. - **Rising policy expectations**: Policy expectations related to the real estate industry are fermenting. Although the real estate market has been weak, new policies are expected to boost its performance, which may disrupt bond market sentiment [24]. 3. Summary - The stock market's strength has a limited impact on the bond market, and the bond market's reaction to the stock market will gradually become dull. However, the bond market currently faces disturbances from fundamental data, special bond issuance, and policy expectations. Further opportunities to go long may require weaker economic high - frequency data, policy implementation, and the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle [26][27][29].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The high - point of liquidity in this round was basically confirmed in early July. Attention should be paid to when the stock - bond cost - effectiveness returns to favoring bonds. The latest convertible bond portfolio has a 0 position in equity - like convertible bonds and a 70% total position in value - style double - low and low - price convertible bonds (bond - like assets). The convertible bond broad - based portfolio outperformed the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 0.29pct last week and has cumulatively outperformed it by 15.99pct since its establishment in July 2024 [3] - When the convertible bond price and valuation are at historical highs, one can focus on sectors where performance and valuation resonate, industries with large bond - selection spaces, convertible bonds with a short - term non - call notice, and convertible bonds that can replace bank convertible bond funds [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Stock - Bond and Convertible Bond Market Review - Last week, the equity market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching or breaking through 3500 points. Bank stocks were the market's main line, and sectors such as computing hardware, new energy, and photovoltaic were active. Some sectors like PCB, consumer electronics, and gaming adjusted. In the bond market, yields generally rose due to the stock - bond seesaw effect, but Treasury bond futures recovered on Friday [1] - Convertible bonds followed the positive performance of underlying stocks, with high trading volume. The valuation adjusted, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index hit a record high. Currently, the cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds is limited, and the bond - selection space is narrowing [2] Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - From the perspective of asset allocation, the latest convertible bond portfolio has a 0 position in equity - like convertible bonds and a 70% total position in value - style double - low and low - price convertible bonds. Value - style low - price convertible bonds have a long remaining time and a downward - adjustment expectation, and value - style double - low convertible bonds have advantages in both underlying stocks and convertible bonds [3] - From a bottom - up perspective, when the convertible bond price and valuation are at historical highs, one can focus on sectors where performance and valuation resonate, industries with large bond - selection spaces, convertible bonds with a short - term non - call notice, and convertible bonds that can replace bank convertible bond funds [4] Chart Analysis - Chart 2 shows the specific targets of the convertible bond broad - based portfolio, including information such as underlying stock names, convertible bond names, positions, and various indicators [7] - Chart 4 shows the performance of the convertible bond market last week by industry, including convertible bond yield, corresponding underlying stock yield, change in conversion premium rate, etc. [11] - Chart 5 shows the performance of the convertible bond market last week by bond attributes (low - price, inert, double - low, equity - like, double - high), including convertible bond yield, corresponding underlying stock yield, change in conversion premium rate, etc. [12] - Chart 6 shows the performance of the convertible bond market last week by rating, including convertible bond yield, corresponding underlying stock yield, change in conversion premium rate, etc. [13] - Chart 7 shows the performance of the convertible bond market last week by underlying stock market value, including convertible bond yield, corresponding underlying stock yield, change in conversion premium rate, etc. [14] - Chart 8 shows the performance of the convertible bond market last week by convertible bond balance, including convertible bond yield, corresponding underlying stock yield, change in conversion premium rate, etc. [15] - Chart 9 shows the performance of the convertible bond market last week by the time since listing, including convertible bond yield, corresponding underlying stock yield, change in conversion premium rate, etc. [16] - Chart 10 shows the equity and bond characteristics of convertible bonds in each industry, including the proportion of different types of convertible bonds and relevant indicators [17] - Chart 11 shows the rating, scale, and conversion value of convertible bonds in each industry [19]

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the financial markets, highlighting the impact of government policies, trade tensions, and market performance across different sectors. Group 1: Important Events Review - On July 11, the Ministry of Finance issued a notice to guide insurance funds towards long-term stable investments, enhancing the performance evaluation system for state-owned commercial insurance companies, with a focus on long-term investment stability and sustainability [1]. - Trump announced tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on several countries, including Brazil, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, effective August 1, which raises concerns about trade relations [1]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year in June, while the PPI fell by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating a weak inflation environment [1]. Group 2: Market Performance - The A-share market continued to rise, driven by expectations of increased real estate policy support, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market saw a slight increase, influenced by the strong performance of financial and real estate sectors, while previous hot sectors like new consumption showed a decline [6]. - The US stock market experienced volatility due to rising tariff risks, leading to a more uncertain trading environment [7]. Group 3: Debt and Equity Market Analysis - The bond market experienced slight adjustments due to the active equity market, but the weak price index data did not create significant negative pressure on bonds [3]. - The equity market showed strong performance, particularly in large financial and capacity-reduction related sectors, although there are signs of divergence in market sentiment [9]. - The bond market's value proposition improved, suggesting a potential for strategic positioning despite short-term adjustments [8].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock market's strength has led to short-term adjustment pressure on the bond market, resulting in a passive narrowing of credit spreads, particularly in short-duration bonds, with 1-year credit spreads across various ratings narrowing by 5-7 basis points [1][4] - The report highlights that the overall turnover rate of credit bonds has decreased from 2.36% to 2.21%, reflecting a reduction in market trading activity, with the weighted average transaction duration slightly increasing from 2.8 years to 2.9 years [2] - Fund managers are maintaining an allocation to credit bonds, although the intensity has weakened, with a shift towards shorter-duration bonds, while insurance companies have increased their net purchases of long-duration credit bonds [3] Group 2 - The report suggests that despite the stock market's upward pressure on the bond market, there remains a potential for short-term volatility, and it recommends a strategy of selectively increasing positions during adjustments rather than aggressively chasing gains [4] - The report notes that the average yield of credit bonds has generally increased, with the 3-year and 5-year credit bonds showing significant upward movement, particularly in lower-rated municipal bonds [10][17] - The report identifies specific sectors such as steel and coal that may benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, indicating potential opportunities in industry bonds [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second week of July, the bond market sentiment was affected by the "stock - bond seesaw" but the fluctuations were controllable due to strong post - quarter bond allocation demand. In Q3, for coupon - bearing bonds, it is recommended to maintain duration, do more credit - quality sinking within 3Y, extend duration to 5Y in regions with stronger credit quality, and participate in ultra - long - term credit bonds with a trading mindset (it's time to take profit in a timely manner) [2][9]. - Short - term urban investment bonds are the preferred choice for the bottom - position portfolio. Provinces with thick 3Y - 1Y term spreads include Henan, Tianjin, Shaanxi, and Yunnan, where investors can find individual bonds with higher yields around 3Y for 10 - 20bp additional returns. Jiangsu and Zhejiang are the first choices for mainstream institutions to extend duration to 5Y, and Henan also has large potential [6][21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Credit Bond Weekly Viewpoint: Finding the "Convex Point" of the Yield Curve - **3Y - 1Y Term Spread Analysis**: - In high - quality regions, Jiangsu's 3Y valuation is relatively high, suitable for low - risk - preference institutions. - In central provinces, only Henan has large historical fluctuations and thick current spreads; core entities like Yu Airport Harbor can be appropriately allocated. - In provinces with some "internet - famous" regions, Yunnan, Shaanxi, and Tianjin have high spreads, but mining may face resistance. - In other niche provinces, Xining Urban Construction Investment, Yinchuan Tonglian, and Gansu Communications Construction have slightly high 3Y valuations [6][9]. - **5Y - 3Y Term Spread Analysis**: - In high - quality regions, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have larger fluctuations, about 5bp lower than Beijing and Shanghai, suitable for low - risk - preference institutions to enhance returns slightly. - In central provinces, Henan and Hunan have large historical fluctuations. Henan's 5Y urban investment bonds (e.g., Luoyang Guosheng, Sanmenxia Investment) still have potential. - In regions with more negative information, Yunnan's 5Y yields are significantly high (mainly Yunnan Construction and Investment). - In niche provinces, 5Y - 3Y term spreads are mostly around 20 - 30bp, with few opportunities [6][15][17]. 2. Credit Bond Weekly Review: Fluctuations in the Second Half of the Week, but Strong Allocation Power 2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - **Bond Default and Overdue**: There were no bond defaults or overdue events this week [22]. - **Subject Rating or Outlook Downgrade**: Zhengzhou Coal Industry (Group) Co., Ltd.'s subject rating was downgraded from BB+ to BB by Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd. on July 9, 2025 [24]. - **Debt - Item Rating Downgrade**: On July 9, 2025, the debt - item ratings of "22 Shenshan Investment MTN001" and "15 Zhengmei MTN001" were downgraded [24]. - **Overseas Rating Downgrade**: There were no overseas rating downgrades this week [24]. - **Major Negative Events**: Many companies such as Fanhai Holdings, Zheng Rong Real Estate, and others had major negative events including debt defaults, lawsuits, and regulatory warnings [25]. 2.2 Primary Issuance - **Issuance and Net Financing**: From July 7 to July 13, the primary issuance of credit bonds increased by nearly 70 billion yuan compared with the previous period, and the total repayment amount also increased to 199.1 billion yuan. The net financing amount was 88.3 billion yuan, basically the same as the previous period [25]. - **Cancellation or Postponement of Issuance**: Only 3 credit bonds with a total scale of 4 billion yuan were cancelled or postponed this week, returning to the medium - level this year [26]. - **Issuance Cost**: Last week, the average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ were 2.07% and 2.21% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the AA+ level decreased by 29bp, while the AAA level increased by 8bp. The issuance frequency of new AA/AA - level bonds remained low [29]. 2.3 Secondary Trading - **Valuation and Spread**: The valuations of all - grade credit bonds fluctuated within ±3bp, with short - term yields decreasing and long - term yields increasing. Credit spreads narrowed comprehensively, with a central value of about 3bp. The term spreads of all grades widened, with medium - and high - grade spreads widening more (3 - 4bp), and the grade spreads of all terms compressed, with lower - grade spreads narrowing more [31][33]. - **Liquidity**: The liquidity of credit bonds continued to weaken slightly, with the turnover rate decreasing by 0.24 percentage points to 1.91%. The top - ten turnover bonds were mostly central and state - owned enterprises. There were 8 credit bonds with a discount of more than 10%, mainly concentrated in some real - estate enterprises and individual rural commercial banks [39]. - **Single - Subject Valuation Changes**: Among urban investment bonds, the distribution of entities with significant spread narrowing or widening was scattered. Among industrial bonds, the top five entities with widening spreads were all real - estate enterprises, including Country Garden, Rongqiao, etc. [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, when the bond market has no clear trading theme, bond yields may be affected by the stock market and tend to rise, but the increase is limited. The bond market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and liquidity is favorable for the bond market. Yields rising to 1.7% present a configuration opportunity [1][15]. - For US Treasury yields, considering the tariff policy's potential impact on prices and the support of stable - coin reserves for short - term Treasury bonds, the outlook is complex. The Fed has different views on whether to cut interest rates, and the probability of interest rate cuts in different months has changed [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Views - **Impact of the "Stock - Bond Seesaw" on the Bond Market**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond rose from 1.641% to 1.666%. The stock market's performance significantly affected bond yields this week. Currently, it is more of a liquidity - driven stock bull market, and the bond market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [1][10][15]. - **Trend of US Treasury Yields**: From July 4 - 11, overseas markets generally continued the previous week's trend. US Treasury bonds fell while US stocks remained flat. The increase in short - term US Treasury yields was weaker than that of long - term ones. Considering various data and Fed officials' statements, the probability of Fed interest rate cuts in different months has changed [3]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summary 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the total net investment in open - market operations was - 2265 billion yuan [31]. - **Interest Rates**: Various money market interest rates such as R, DR, and SHIBOR changed slightly from July 4 to 11 [33]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Real - Estate Market**: The total transaction area of commercial housing decreased [52]. - **Commodity Prices**: Steel prices rose across the board, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed trends [54]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, 45 local bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 231.79 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 121.561 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 110.229 billion yuan [84]. - **Regional Distribution**: 12 provinces and cities issued local bonds, with Guizhou, Hunan, and Heilongjiang ranking in the top three in terms of issuance amount [85]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of local bonds this week was 37.0728 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.71%. The top three provinces with the most active trading were Hunan, Guangdong, and Shandong [98]. - **Yield Changes**: The yields of local bonds showed a general downward trend [102]. 3.3.3 Local Bond Issuance Plan for the Month The issuance plans of local bonds in different provinces and cities from July 14 - 18 are provided [110]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Total Issuance**: This week, 333 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 287.445 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 199.101 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 88.344 billion yuan, an increase of 10.205 billion yuan compared to last week [106]. - **By Bond Type**: The net financing amounts of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, corporate bonds, and private placement notes varied [112]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and corporate bonds changed to different extents [120]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 588.518 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different credit ratings and bond types [122]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity The yields to maturity of national development bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different trends of increase or decrease [123][125][126][127]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [128][130][132][136]. 3.4.6 Rating Spreads The rating spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed, while those of corporate bonds showed a general widening trend [142][145][148]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds for each bond type are listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [151][152].