// 化。前期ICE原糖跌至18美分/磅以下触发国内买船,近月采购量超百万吨,预计6月中下旬起进口糖将陆续到港,三季度供 结 应压力增加。巴西配额外进口成本降至5980元/吨,与国内现货价差缩窄至150元/吨,进口利润修复刺激后续采购。1-3月 糖浆及预拌粉进口24.2万吨（折糖约15. 6万吨）,低价替代品持续挤占国产糖消费空间。综上所述,郑糖维持震荡偏弱。 投资咨询业务资格:证监会许可【2012】31号 ITC国贸期货 白糖数据日报 | 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/6/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | 团日 | | 地区 | 2025/6/6 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2509基差 | 涨跌值 | | / 报 糖 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 6190 | 0 | 0 | 455 | -5 | | 吨价现 | | 昆明 | 5915 | 5 | -100 | 280 | 0 | | いで貨 ...

长江期货 鸡蛋等待反弹逢高做空为主 格林大华期货：短期鸡蛋重心或继续走低 短期来看，当前鸡蛋供给稳定，下游按需采购，部分市场走货略减慢，短期蛋价重心继续下移、低价区 稳定，预计随着供给压力持续释放、库存水平或仍将进一步回升，或施压蛋价重心继续走低。中期来 看，新开产蛋鸡陆续增加，结合补栏鸡苗和淘汰蛋鸡数据来看理论在产蛋鸡存栏水平仍处呈现增加趋势 叠加梅雨季节性下跌预期，导致年中现货供给压力加大，期货盘面近月合约仍偏空看待；然而，待6-7 月现货持续低位，养殖端集中大规模淘汰导致阶段性供给减少叠加中秋消费旺季，或驱动8-9月现货呈 现阶段性反弹行情。 长江期货：鸡蛋等待反弹逢高做空为主 短期受渠道补库及冷库入库需求增加，产区走货较快，蛋价存在一定支撑，不过随着梅雨季节来临，鸡 蛋容易发生质量问题，渠道及下游采购心态偏谨慎，鸡蛋需求季节性转淡，对蛋价支撑减弱，同时淘汰 有所放缓，供应仍较为充足，施压蛋价，持续关注冷库入库情况。中期来看，25年3-4月补栏量依旧较 高，对应25年7-8月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需要 时间，整体高补苗量下，远期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increase in interest rates will lead to higher government debt financing costs, potentially putting pressure on government spending [1] Group 1 - Rising interest rates will increase the cost of debt financing for the government [1] - Higher financing costs may impact the government's ability to maintain current spending levels [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the unusual phenomenon of Hong Kong's overnight interest rates remaining close to zero (0.01%) while U.S. rates exceed 4%, highlighting a significant interest rate differential that theoretically should create an arbitrage opportunity, yet persists without exploitation [1] - This situation reflects a decline in Asian investors' appetite for U.S. assets, a recovery in Hong Kong's capital markets, and the limited risk tolerance of banks and hedge funds, indicating underlying pressures in the global financial market [1][6] - The article suggests that the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies is contributing to this market anomaly, which, while not causing a market collapse, signals stress within the financial system [1][8] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The surge in the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) on May 2, driven by speculation that Trump might demand currency appreciation from trade partners, initiated a chain reaction affecting Asian currencies, including the Hong Kong dollar [2][3] - Hedge funds were caught off guard by this currency movement, leading to increased demand for Asian currencies, which pushed the Hong Kong dollar to the strong end of its trading range at 7.75 HKD to 1 USD [3] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) was compelled to sell HKD to maintain the peg, resulting in increased market liquidity and driving local interest rates down to near-zero levels [3] Group 2: Structural Issues - The persistence of the interest rate differential is attributed to both short-term technical factors and deeper structural issues, including a series of IPO activities and dividend payments from mainland companies listed in Hong Kong [4] - The International Bank for Settlements (BIS) reported a significant recovery in Hong Kong's IPO market, with financing amounts increasing by over 40% year-on-year in the first half of the year, contributing to short-term liquidity impacts [4] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The rising demand for the Hong Kong dollar and other Asian currencies indicates a nervousness among investors regarding the U.S. financial market, reflecting a hesitance to commit new funds after decades of strong appetite for U.S. assets [6] - Proposed changes in U.S. tax law, particularly Section 899, pose a threat to foreign investment, further exacerbating investor concerns about the U.S. market's attractiveness [6] Group 4: Market Vulnerability - The article warns that while the market may appear to be coping with disruptions caused by Trump, the prolonged nature of this dislocation serves as a warning signal of underlying market fragility [7] - The final caution emphasizes that beneath the seemingly calm market surface, significant risks may be brewing, particularly in the context of ongoing global trade policy and geopolitical uncertainties [8]

金属期权 2025-06-09 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属区间盘整震荡，构建做空波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系弱势反弹，适合构 建熊市价差组合策略和卖方期权组合策略；（3）贵金属黄金高位盘整，白银多头突破上行，构建做空波动率策略 和现货避险策略。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 铜 | CU2507 | 78,620 | -190 | -0.24 | 12.8 ...

能源化工期权 2025-06-09 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 原油 | SC2507 | 476 | 8 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a rebound in macro risk appetite, with SC crude oil futures leading the commodity market [1] - Multiple factors are driving the increase in oil prices, indicating a complex market environment [1] - There is an ongoing observation of the pressure from production cuts, suggesting that the lower boundary for oil prices is still under scrutiny [1] Group 2 - Short-term opportunities for oil prices to challenge upper resistance levels are anticipated, influenced by geopolitical and macroeconomic factors [1]

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 会有负债压力和兑现浮盈需求吗？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年年初以来市场关注银行的负债压力及其对债市影响，一是一季度非银存款流失、资金面偏 紧。一季度债市的大幅调整，也使得银行有卖出部分 AC 账户和 OCI 账户债券来兑现收益、平 衡利润表的需求。二季度以来银行的负债压力和机构行为又面临一些新变化，同时也伴随着央 行流动性投放态度的变化、政府债发行高峰过去后资产扩张速度的变化、季末月兑现浮盈的态 度变化、存款利率调降后负债结构的变化，这些变化对银行配债有何影响？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490125010043 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 cjzqdt11111 2025-06-09 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 今年年初以来市场关注银行的负债压力及其对债市影响，一方面信贷企稳、政府债发行量高于 往年 ...

报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：马来 4-5 月超预期增产利空逐步被市场消化，短期矛盾不明显，跟随原油、中加及中美关系 影响下的油脂板块震荡为主，棕榈油 09 合约周涨 0.62%。 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 6 月 8 日 棕榈油：利空初步定价，关注后续产量情况 豆油：中美关系扰动，关注美豆新作悬念 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 豆油：豆系市场驱动不明显，供应问题淡化，但后半周中美元首通话给美豆市场带来利多情绪，豆油 豆粕反弹强烈，豆油 09 合约周涨 1.31%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：马来 4-5 月产量超预期恢复将提前带来 200 万吨的库存水平，印尼虽一季度库存维持低位， 但 4 月库存有望随出口大减而累至 300 万吨以上，故二季度印马产地库存有恢复至 550 万吨的正常水平， 同时美豆油前期政策预期打得过满，上方存在价格泡沫，因此基本面看在至三季度产地报价可能还会出现 松动以进一步释放压力。虽暂维持基本面有压力尚未释放的判断，但下跌过程中存在较强支撑，资金对于 棕榈油的多配基于宏观配置、油品对冲、提前布局下半年行情等考虑，使 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicates a slight decline in U.S. economic activity, which raises concerns about the overall economic outlook [1][3] - Businesses are hesitant to invest or expand due to unpredictable policy changes, while consumers face rising prices and stagnant wages, leading to more cautious spending habits [3][4] - The financial markets reacted to the news with volatility, as investors speculated on the potential for reduced corporate profitability and the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5] Group 2 - The report highlights the interconnectedness of the global economy, suggesting that developments in the U.S. economy could have broader implications for financial markets and consumer behavior worldwide [4][5] - The discussions among investors reflect a mix of strategies, with some considering whether to buy into the stock market or exchange currencies based on the evolving economic landscape [4]