在此之前，该经济体已打出精准组合拳：从稀土出口管制到对美企反垄断调查，再到对美籍船舶加征费用，环环相扣，既打击美关键产业，又在规则层面占 据道义高地。如今，该经济体手握稀土、市场、制造三大王牌，反制措施合法合规，博弈策略从被动防御转为主动设局。这场博弈让我们看到，该经济体国 力日益强盛，在面对无理挑衅时，既有能力也有底气进行有力反制。我们坚信，该经济体将在这场博弈中坚定前行，维护国家利益，书写新的辉煌篇章。 此次美高层暴怒源于战略误判。其仍认为对方依赖美市场，却忽视该经济体半导体产业链自主加速、外贸结构深度重构等根本转变。反观美方，财政赤字高 企、债务飙升、制造业回流成效有限，此时加征关税无异于火上浇油。 美东部时间10月10日上午，美高层在社交平台发千字长文，威胁对某经济体商品"大规模加征关税"，以回应对方稀土出口管制措施。消息发布仅3分钟，标 普500指数市值瞬间蒸发7000亿美元，当日美股遭遇4月以来最惨烈暴跌：道指重挫878点，纳指暴跌3.56%，科技股全线崩盘，全日蒸发1.65万亿美元。市场 用剧烈波动宣告，对"美高层式贸易战"的恐慌已达顶点。 当日美股闭市后，美高层再度发文，抛出更激进威胁：自20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overnight plunge in US stocks, with major indices falling sharply, was triggered by Trump's threats of increased tariffs on rare earth exports and ongoing government shutdown concerns, raising fears of economic recession and renewed trade tensions [1] Market Impact - The Nasdaq dropped nearly 4%, leading to a sell-off in technology stocks, which had accumulated significant profit margins [1] - Safe-haven assets like gold surged, while risk assets such as Bitcoin experienced significant declines and frequent liquidations [1] Short-term Outlook - The impact of the US stock market decline is expected to transmit to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly affecting technology stocks [1] - Despite short-term pressures, the medium-term outlook remains positive due to supportive domestic policies, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" for technology, potential interest rate cuts, and a shift in household savings [1] Valuation and Strategy - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are still undervalued compared to historical averages, with traditional blue-chip stocks not showing signs of bubble formation [1] - The Federal Reserve has raised the probability of an interest rate cut in October to 100%, with another potential cut in December, maintaining a global liquidity easing environment [1] Investment Strategy - In the short term, it is advisable to reduce positions in technology stocks that have seen significant gains and have uncertain earnings outlooks, while maintaining core holdings [1] - In the medium term, focus on investing in technology and new consumer leaders that demonstrate technical breakthroughs and solid order placements [1] - Key monitoring areas include the progress of US-China trade negotiations and the resolution of the US government shutdown [1]

10月10日，美国总统特朗普在社交平台Truth Social发文称，美国计划于11月1日起实施两项政策：一是对中国进口商品加征100%新关税，此关税为当前已 缴关税之外的额外税率；二是对 "所有关键软件"实施出口管制，两项措施将同步于11月1日生效。 外界分析认为，这是美国对中国近期对稀土矿物出口实施新管制措施的报复行为。受此消息影响，美国股市大幅下挫，而债券和黄金价格则有所上涨。鉴 于铜在制造业中的广泛应用以及在全球电气化进程中所起的关键作用，铜价对贸易和全球经济的担忧尤为敏感。 此次铜价暴跌扭转了此前的涨势，此前的涨势是由智利、刚果民主共和国和印度尼西亚的大型铜矿遭遇重大挫折所推动的。由于其他项目也难以达到生产 目标，投资者近几周纷纷涌入铜市场，押注该市场可能面临严重短缺。 贸易战没有赢家，金融市场最诚实的反应已经印证了这一点。当两个巨人碰撞，全球经济的每一个环节都可能感受到震动。这场由一封"敌对信函"引发的 全球资产暴跌，究竟是短期恐慌，还是长期贸易冷战的开端？答案，或许就藏在接下来的每一步棋中。 来 源 | 中国线缆网综合整理 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of geopolitical discussions over economic discussions in the current market environment, highlighting that understanding geopolitical dynamics is crucial for investment decisions [1][3]. Geopolitical Dynamics - The current market situation presents a simple choice regarding asset evaluation, which is heavily influenced by geopolitical factors rather than traditional economic indicators [2][3]. - The article suggests that the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions could either be tactical or strategic, impacting investment strategies accordingly [7][20]. Negotiation Framework - A framework for understanding negotiations is presented, indicating that differing interests between parties are normal and that intense negotiations can lead to stable outcomes [5][6]. - The article discusses the importance of recognizing the difference between a party's stated goals and their actual means during negotiations [6]. Trade and Export Controls - China's recent export controls on rare earth elements are analyzed, with implications for military applications and the potential impact on U.S. production capabilities [9][10]. - The article notes that this is a significant move by China, marking a departure from previous diplomatic strategies and indicating a more assertive stance [10][11]. Strategic vs. Tactical Considerations - The author concludes that the recent export restrictions are likely a tactical maneuver rather than a strategic shift, suggesting that both sides may still find common ground in future negotiations [13][21]. - The historical context of China's use of rare earths as a diplomatic tool is referenced, indicating that while such measures can yield short-term results, they may not be sustainable long-term [14][18]. Future Negotiations - The article anticipates that upcoming negotiations in South Korea may yield positive results, as both parties appear to understand the stakes involved [20][21]. - It is suggested that the dynamics of the negotiations may shift, with China taking a more proactive role compared to previous interactions [20][21].

Market Overview - Major U.S. indices experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 878.82 points (1.90%) to 45479.60, the Nasdaq dropping 820.20 points (3.56%) to 22204.43, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 182.59 points (2.71%) to 6552.52, marking the largest single-day drop since April 10 [1] - European markets also faced losses, with Germany's DAX30 down 427.04 points (1.73%) to 24225.10, the UK FTSE 100 down 82.55 points (0.87%) to 9426.85, and France's CAC40 down 123.36 points (1.53%) to 7918.00 [2] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a sharp decline, with Bitcoin dropping 13.5% to a low of $105,930 and Ethereum falling over 17% to a low of $3,344. Over $7.4 billion in crypto assets were liquidated in the past 24 hours, primarily during a four-hour window on Friday afternoon [3] Commodities - Gold prices rose above $4,000, increasing by 0.91%, while silver rose by 1.86% to $50.172. The CEO of Wheaton Precious Metals Corp expressed confidence that gold prices could exceed $5,000 next year, potentially reaching $10,000 by the end of 2030 due to geopolitical risks and supply shortages [4] - In the metals market, LME copper fell by $350 to $10,518 per ton, while LME aluminum decreased by $50 to $2,748 per ton. Goldman Sachs projected that copper prices would remain between $10,000 and $11,000 per ton in 2026/2027 [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. consumer confidence index remained stable at 55 points in October, with concerns over high prices and weak job prospects persisting among consumers. Inflation expectations for the next year slightly decreased from 4.7% to 4.6%, while long-term expectations remained stable at 3.7% [10] Company News - Morgan Stanley announced the removal of restrictions on wealth clients holding crypto funds, allowing all clients to invest in cryptocurrencies across various account types starting October 15. This move reflects the firm's commitment to expanding access to crypto investments [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the undervaluation of the RMB in terms of real purchasing power and highlights the dominance of the RMB in international physical trade, despite its limited role in global settlement [1][2]. Group 1: RMB and International Trade - The RMB has become the primary currency in international physical trade, but this trade only accounts for 5% of international settlements, indicating that financial transactions are more significant [2]. - The article suggests that the U.S. has faced challenges due to its financial practices, which have led to a decline in its industrial capabilities and a reliance on foreign manufacturing [3][4]. Group 2: U.S. Financial Practices - The U.S. has historically used financial strategies, such as aggressive interest rate hikes, to maintain its economic dominance, which has adversely affected its manufacturing sector [8]. - The article argues that the U.S. financial system is unsustainable, as it relies on continuous global financial crises to sustain high growth rates [12][14]. Group 3: RMB Internationalization - The offshore RMB market has remained stable, fluctuating between 1.5 to 2 trillion, while foreign reserves have consistently been around 3 trillion, raising questions about the management of RMB internationalization [19]. - The article posits that if desired, foreign reserves could exceed 6 trillion, and increasing the offshore RMB scale to around 10 trillion is a conservative estimate [20]. Group 4: Manufacturing Focus - The article emphasizes that the primary goal should be to dominate global manufacturing, suggesting that the current dollar dominance is beneficial for this strategy [24]. - It highlights that the approach is not about immediate victories but rather about strategically undermining foreign manufacturing at the right moment [23].

智通财经APP获悉，周五，三大指数暴跌，比特币、以太坊跳水。美国总统当地时间周五在社交媒体上 发表强硬言论，并威胁要对中国商品征收"大规模增加的关税"。消息传出后，华尔街交易员迅速按下抛 售键，对贸易战升级的担忧瞬间压倒了市场此前的乐观情绪。 【美股】截至收盘，道指跌878.82点，跌幅为1.90%，报45479.60点；纳指跌820.20点，跌幅为3.56%， 报22204.43点；标普500指数跌182.59点，跌幅为2.71%，报6552.52点。纳指、标普500指数创4月10日以 来最大单日跌幅。大型科技股普跌，亚马逊(AMZN.US)、特斯拉(TSLA.US)、英伟达(NVDA.US)跌约 5%，苹果(AAPL.US)跌3.45%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌超6%，阿里巴巴(BABA.US)和百度 (BIDU.US)均跌超8%，哔哩哔哩(BILI.US)跌9%。 【欧股】德国DAX30指数跌427.04点，跌幅1.73%，报24225.10点；英国富时100指数跌82.55点，跌幅 0.87%，报9426.85点；法国CAC40指数跌123.36点，跌幅1.53%，报7918.00点；欧洲斯托克50指 ...

Group 1: Trade War Background and Impact - The US-China trade war began in 2018 due to the Trump administration's belief that China was taking advantage of the US, leading to tariffs on steel and aluminum, which later expanded to electronics and machinery [1][3] - The trade war resulted in supply chain disruptions for US companies, increased costs, and higher prices for consumers, contributing to rising inflation and job losses, particularly in manufacturing [3][5] - By 2020, the pandemic prompted a phase one agreement where China agreed to purchase more US agricultural products, but the execution faced challenges, and tariffs remained in place under the Biden administration [5][7] Group 2: Economic Consequences - The trade war slowed US economic growth to 2.8%, while China maintained a growth rate of around 5%, indicating a decline in US competitiveness [9][11] - Although the trade deficit narrowed slightly, US companies shifted towards automation or relocating factories, which is not a sustainable long-term solution [9][11] - The trade war has proven to be a double-edged sword, as it has not only failed to suppress China's economic rise but has also led to increased domestic prices in the US [9][18] Group 3: China's Resilience and Growth - China's economic development is seen as inevitable, with a large domestic market and a focus on self-reliance, which has accelerated technological innovation despite the trade war [11][12] - The "Made in China 2025" initiative aims to enhance China's high-tech manufacturing capabilities, allowing it to redirect exports to other markets despite US tariffs [14][15] - China's industrial production accounts for nearly half of global output, and its trade surplus is significant, indicating its central role in the global supply chain [21][31] Group 4: Recommendations for the US - The US needs to shift its approach towards China, focusing on self-improvement and coexistence rather than suppression, including investing in STEM education and infrastructure [20][25] - Ending the trade war and fostering cooperation could lead to mutual benefits, as the US economy is intertwined with China's, and competition should replace isolation [27][29] - Experts suggest that the US should adopt a more favorable view of China, emphasizing collaboration over confrontation to achieve a balanced global economy [31]

22522 23024.63 成交额 BELL 4.43 成交量 -502.20 今开 23043.52 -2.18% 上涨 501 291 下跌 平盘 23119.91 最高价 市盈率 43.4 近20日 最低价 7.42 22439.66 市净率 今年来 से 144 王日 日K 周K B 營加 23609.60 22439.66 09:30 额:0 | 资料 | 成分 | | 资讯 | | 相关 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | | | 现价 | | 活式 | | 富原 | | | 6.600 | | 987 | | TWG.O | | | | | | | QUOIN PHARMA ... | | | | | | | 买指数 | 17 | | + | | | | | 分享 | 添加提醒 | 加自选 | 深度资料 | | 纳指一度暴跌2.54% 在消息面上，美国总统特朗普当地时间周五(10月10日)在社交媒体上发表强硬言论，并威胁要对中国商品征收"大规模增加的关税"。 消息传出后，华尔街交易员迅速按下抛售键，对贸易战升级的担忧瞬间压倒了市场此前的 ...

Group 1: Market Reaction - The market has sharply declined following the president's announcement regarding potential retaliatory measures against China, particularly in response to China's restrictions on rare earth materials [1][7] - The NASDAQ, which was approaching its 33rd record high of the year, fell by a full percent due to the tariff discussions [7] Group 2: U.S.-China Relations - The president has threatened unspecified retaliatory actions against China and appears to have canceled a scheduled meeting with President Xi Jinping, citing the Chinese move as surprising and inappropriate [2][4][9] - The president indicated that the U.S. has two monopolies and is considering a significant increase in tariffs on Chinese imports as a countermeasure [5][6] Group 3: Rare Earth Materials - The U.S. is particularly vulnerable to China's control over rare earth materials, which are essential for various industries [14] - The Chinese government is perceived to be leveraging its position during a transitional period for the U.S. as it attempts to establish its own supply chains for rare earths [14][15] Group 4: Agricultural Impact - The U.S. agricultural sector, particularly soybean farmers, is facing significant challenges due to reduced Chinese purchases, prompting discussions of a targeted bailout for the soy industry [20][24] - The political sensitivity surrounding rural America is highlighted, as the president aims to mitigate the economic impact of trade policies on this demographic [24][25]