Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Treasury Bond Futures Morning Report - November 3, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Dushufang from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Group 2: Market Conditions Fundamental Analysis - Bank - inter - bond market sentiment is warm, with long - term bonds performing better. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.42%. The 10 - month PMI data led to higher expectations of policy easing in Q4, boosting bond market buying. There is a certain safety cushion for entering the bond market now. The overnight repo rate of deposit - taking institutions rose slightly and stabilized around 1.31%. The yields of secondary perpetual bonds declined by more than 2bp [3]. - On October 31, the People's Bank of China conducted 355.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. After deducting the 168 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due on that day, the net investment was 187.1 billion yuan [3]. Basis Analysis - TS main basis is - 0.0487, indicating the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. TF main basis is - 0.06167, also bearish. T main basis is 0.1238, indicating the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. TL main basis is - 0.0061, bearish [3]. Inventory Analysis - The deliverable bond balances of TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1359.4 billion, 1493.5 billion, and 2359.9 billion respectively, considered neutral [4]. Disk Analysis - TS, TF, and T main contracts are all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. Main Position Analysis - TS main contract has a net long position with an increase in long positions. TF main contract also has a net long position with an increase in long positions. T main contract has a net long position with a decrease in long positions [5]. Expectation Analysis - The central bank has increased the volume of MLF renewals for 8 consecutive months. The October PMI data is below the boom - bust line. In September, CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 0.3% year - on - year, while core CPI's year - on - year increase has expanded for 5 consecutive months. New social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level. Affected by the "migration of RMB deposits", the M2 growth rate expanded. LPR remained unchanged as expected. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October FOMC meeting [5]. Group 3: Market Quotes - T2512.CFE: Price is 108.680, up 0.04%, trading volume is 66178, open interest is 242555, with a daily decrease of 2555, and the CTD bond is 220019.IB [8]. - TF2512.CFE: Price is 106.065, down 0.01%, trading volume is 51145, open interest is 149424, with a daily increase of 155, and the CTD bond is 250003.IB [8]. - TS2512.CFE: Price is 102.544, down 0.02%, trading volume is 30841, open interest is 72375, with a daily decrease of 1166, and the CTD bond is 250012.IB [8]. - TL2512.CFE: Price is 116.68, up 0.42%, trading volume is 103750, open interest is 142750, with a daily decrease of 1328, and the CTD bond is 210005.IB [8].

From @WSJopinion: The CPI figure Social Security uses is outdated, costing taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars each year, writes @RominaBoccia https://t.co/6hoy9q3q9H ...

Group 1 - The article outlines key economic indicators and events scheduled for November 2025, including U.S. employment data and manufacturing indices [2][3] - It highlights the release of various economic reports such as the U.S. trade balance for September and the ADP employment report for October [2][3] - The calendar includes significant dates for central bank meetings, including the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision and the Bank of England's rate announcement [2][3] Group 2 - The article mentions the upcoming release of China's October CPI and PPI, which are critical for assessing inflation trends [2] - It notes the importance of the U.S. non-farm payroll report and unemployment rate for October, which are key indicators of labor market health [2][3] - The article also references the OPEC monthly report and its implications for the oil market, alongside weekly EIA crude oil inventory data [2][3]

Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate is projected to be 4.0% for Q1 2024, with a gradual decline to 2.0% by Q4 2025[7] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to show fluctuations, with a notable drop to -6.0% in Q1 2024[7] Federal Reserve Projections - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain interest rates between 5.30% and 5.80% through mid-2025[5] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December 2025 are at 67.79% probability, decreasing to 32.21% for a higher rate[10] Inflation Metrics - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to stabilize around 3.0% by mid-2024, with a potential increase to 4.0% by Q1 2025[14] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate is anticipated to be 2.5% in 2024, reflecting a slight increase from previous years[14] Housing Market Trends - The median home price in the U.S. is expected to rise steadily, reaching approximately $400,000 by late 2025[8] - Existing home sales are projected to increase by 5% annually, indicating a recovering housing market[8] Labor Market Insights - Initial jobless claims are forecasted to remain below 200,000, indicating a strong labor market[16] - The labor force participation rate is expected to stabilize around 62% by 2025, reflecting a balanced labor market[16]

日本央行周四如期维持利率在0.5%不变，但有两名委员建议加息25基点至0.75%（理由是物价风险偏向上行）。日元短线走低，美元对日元拉升50点。日本央行维持2025至2027财年核心CPI预期中值不变，将2025财年实际GDP增速预期中值从0.6%小幅上调至0.7%。 ...

Market Outlook & Investment Strategy - Markets are near record highs and have been on an upward trajectory since post "liberation day" lows [1] - Seasonal factors suggest a potentially strong market run between now and Thanksgiving [2][5] - A substantial amount of money market cash, almost $4 trillion, remains on the sidelines, presenting both opportunity and risk [4] - Investors' unease and the "wall of worry" can sometimes drive markets higher [6] - Sticking with winning tech stocks is a viable strategy, but periodic profit-taking and volatility should be expected [8] Economic Indicators & Fed Policy - The market anticipates the Fed will likely hedge its bets due to incomplete economic data, potentially leading to another rate cut this year [9] - Recent CPI data was encouraging, rising as expected but less than anticipated [10] - Private data from companies like Blackstones, credit card companies (Visa), and Bookingcom provides valuable insights [11][12] Earnings Season & Company Performance - The current earnings season has been impressive, with strong margin stories [3] - Companies have been running more resilient, leaner, and meaner, potentially due to tariffs [3] - Earnings are coming in very strongly, with 87% beating on earnings and 83% on revenues, exceeding the 5 and 10-year averages [9]

Report Overview - Date: October 28, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Scope: Precious metals and basic metals Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Expected to continue falling [2][4] - Silver: Forecasted to rebound with fluctuations [2][4] - Copper: Positive market sentiment to support prices [2][9] - Zinc: Likely to have a slight rebound [2][12] - Lead: Decrease in overseas inventories to support prices [2][15] - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][17] - Aluminum: To trade within a range; Alumina to rebound from the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy to follow electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - Nickel: Nickel prices to trade in a narrow range due to the game between smelting inventory build - up and nickel ore concerns; Stainless steel has limited downside potential but lacks upward drivers [2][23] Summary by Metal Gold - **Price Performance**:沪金2512昨日收盘价934.14，日涨幅 - 0.42%，夜盘收盘价919.70，夜盘涨幅 - 2.25%；Comex黄金2512昨日收盘价3997.00，日涨幅 - 3.15% [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪金2512成交量386,272，较前日增加15,360；持仓量180,815，较前日减少4,998；Comex黄金2512成交量324,262，较前日增加32,301；持仓量352,515，较前日减少420 [4] - **Inventory**:沪金库存87,015千克，无变动；Comex黄金库存（前日）38,877,087金衡盎司，减少81,828 [4] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [7] Silver - **Price Performance**:沪银2512昨日收盘价11394，日涨幅0.54%，夜盘收盘价11150.00，夜盘涨幅 - 2.44%；Comex白银2512昨日收盘价46.830，日涨幅 - 3.26% [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪银2512成交量94,606，较前日增加22,560；持仓量113,856，较前日减少1,627；Comex白银2512成交量155,458，较前日增加57,975；持仓量122,583，无变动 [4] - **Inventory**:沪银库存647,643千克，减少17328；Comex白银库存（前日）496,946,989金衡盎司，减少1,034,073 [4] - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [7] Copper - **Price Performance**:沪铜主力合约昨日收盘价88,370，日涨幅0.74%，夜盘收盘价88130，夜盘涨幅 - 0.27%；伦铜3M电子盘昨日收盘价11,001，日涨幅0.49% [9] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪铜指数成交量397,173，较前日增加95,594；持仓量613,133，较前日增加29,521；伦铜3M电子盘成交量24,511，较前日减少1,154；持仓量321,000，较前日增加1,413 [9] - **Inventory**:沪铜期货库存35,392，增加321；伦铜库存135,975，减少375 [9] - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a bullish outlook [11] Zinc - **Price Performance**:沪锌主力收盘价22365，涨幅0.04%；伦锌3M电子盘收盘价3019.5，跌幅 - 0.10% [12] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪锌主力成交量120077，减少10384；持仓量121184，增加1017；伦锌成交量11517，减少4003；持仓量222244，减少1274 [12] - **Inventory**:沪锌期货库存65724，减少125；LME锌库存37050，减少550 [12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12] Lead - **Price Performance**:沪铅主力收盘价17520，跌幅 - 0.43%；伦铅3M电子盘收盘价2016.5，涨幅0.22% [15] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪铅主力成交量81722，增加2208；持仓量84395，增加549；伦铅成交量4991，减少3339；持仓量154158，减少958 [15] - **Inventory**:沪铅期货库存23048，无变动；LME铅库存232375，减少3000 [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15] Tin - **Price Performance**:沪锡主力合约昨日收盘价286,720，日涨幅0.85%，夜盘收盘价285,580，夜盘涨幅0.22%；伦锡3M电子盘昨日收盘价36,090，日涨幅1.23% [17] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪锡主力合约成交量102,206，增加31,425；持仓量45,084，增加7,008；伦锡3M电子盘成交量180，减少9；持仓量13,988，增加53 [17] - **Inventory**:沪锡期货库存5,652，增加85；伦锡库存2,725，减少25 [17] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**:沪铝主力合约收盘价21360；LME铝3M收盘价2879；沪氧化铝主力合约收盘价2829；铝合金主力合约收盘价20715 [21] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪铝主力合约成交量209248，持仓量311269；沪氧化铝主力合约成交量278561，持仓量372484；铝合金主力合约成交量6715，持仓量6366 [21] - **Inventory**:国内铝锭社会库存61.60万吨；LME铝锭库存46.93万吨 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: All at 0, indicating neutral outlooks [22] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**:沪镍主力收盘价122,400；不锈钢主力收盘价12,815 [23] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪镍主力成交量129,533；不锈钢主力成交量212,724 [23] - **Industry News**: Indonesian forestry working group took over a nickel mine area, expected to affect nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month; China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia; Indonesia sanctioned 190 mining companies [23][24] - **Trend Intensity**: Both at 0, indicating neutral outlooks [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The current Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index is 128.4 points (previous value: 128.3 points), with a year - on - year increase of 6.0 points (previous value: 5.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has widened. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds has been downgraded, with a signal factor of 4.7% (previous value: 4.9%) [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 127.4 (previous value: 127.4), with a year - on - year increase of 5.4 points (previous value: 5.5 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has narrowed. - In terms of total demand, the high - frequency index of commercial housing sales is 42.0 (previous value: 42.2), with a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 points (previous value: 6.1 points), and the year - on - year decline remains unchanged; the high - frequency index of infrastructure investment is 122.1 (previous value: 122.0), with a year - on - year increase of 8.7 points (previous value: 8.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded; the high - frequency index of exports is 143.6 (previous value: 143.6), with a year - on - year increase of 1.3 points (previous value: 1.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has narrowed; the high - frequency index of consumption is 120.6 (previous value: 120.6), with a year - on - year increase of 3.7 points (previous value: 3.6 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the monthly - on - monthly forecast of CPI is 0.0% (previous value: 0.1%); the monthly - on - monthly forecast of PPI is 0.0% (previous value: 0.0%) [1][9][10]. - The high - frequency inventory index is 162.7 (previous value: 162.5), with a year - on - year increase of 8.2 points (previous value: 8.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has narrowed. - The high - frequency transportation index is 131.9 (previous value: 131.7), with a year - on - year increase of 10.2 points (previous value: 10.1 points), and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded. - The high - frequency financing index is 240.4 (previous value: 239.8), with a year - on - year increase of 30.3 points (previous value: 30.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [2][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - The Guosheng Fundamental High - Frequency Index is 128.4 points, with a year - on - year increase of 6.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate has widened. The long - short signal factor of interest - rate bonds is 4.7%, a decrease from the previous value [1][9][11]. Production: Polyester Operating Rate Slightly Increases - The electric - furnace operating rate is 60.9%, unchanged from the previous value; the polyester operating rate is 89.1%, an increase from the previous value of 88.0%; the semi - tire operating rate is 73.7%, an increase from the previous value of 72.7%; the full - tire operating rate is 65.6%, an increase from the previous value of 64.5%; the PTA operating rate is 76.0%, an increase from the previous value of 75.6%; the PX operating rate is 86.3%, a decrease from the previous value of 87.3%; the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 46.9 tons, a decrease from the previous value of 54.4 tons [11][16]. Real Estate Sales: Commercial Housing Transaction Area Slightly Declines - The commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 28.7 million square meters, a decrease from the previous value of 31.0 million square meters; the land premium rate of transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 2.0%, unchanged from the previous value [26]. Infrastructure Investment: Infrastructure High - Frequency Index Rises Steadily - The infrastructure high - frequency index is 122.1, with a year - on - year increase of 8.7 points, and the year - on - year growth rate has expanded. The operating rate of local refineries is 50.0%, a decrease from the previous value of 50.3% [11][35]. Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The CCFI index is 993 points (previous value: 973 points); the RJ/CRB index is 299.6 points (previous value: 294.2 points) [43]. Consumption: Daily Average Box Office of Movies Continues to Decline - The daily average box office of movies is 32.82 million yuan, a decrease from the previous value of 37.49 million yuan [54]. CPI: Pork Prices Slightly Decrease - The latest average wholesale price of pork is 17.7 yuan/kg, a decrease from the previous value of 18.3 yuan/kg; the latest average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.2 yuan/kg, an increase from the previous value of 5.0 yuan/kg; the latest average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.0 yuan/kg, a decrease from the previous value of 7.1 yuan/kg; the latest average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.7 yuan/kg, an increase from the previous value of 17.6 yuan/kg [60]. PPI: Prices of Coal, Copper, Aluminum, and Oil Have All Increased - The closing price of thermal coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 765 yuan/ton, an increase from the previous value of 727 yuan/ton; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 63 US dollars/barrel, an increase from the previous value of 62 US dollars/barrel; the spot settlement price of LME copper is 10,679 US dollars/ton, an increase from the previous value of 10,588 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2,814 US dollars/ton, an increase from the previous value of 2,765 US dollars/ton [65]. Transportation: Subway Passenger Volume Slightly Declines - The subway passenger volume in first - tier cities is 39.59 million person - times, a decrease from the previous value of 40.26 million person - times; the highway logistics freight rate index is 1050 points, an increase from the previous value of 1049 points; the number of domestic flights is 13,007, an increase from the previous value of 12,790 [75]. Inventory: Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Decreases - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 11.8 tons, a decrease from the previous value of 16.8 tons; the soda - ash inventory is 170.6 tons, an increase from the previous value of 169.3 tons [84]. Financing: Net Financing of Local Bonds Significantly Increases - The net financing of local bonds within the week is 165.8 billion yuan, an increase from the previous value of - 19.8 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is 135.2 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous value of 184.7 billion yuan; the 6M national - share bank acceptance bill rediscount rate is 0.6%, a decrease from the previous value of 0.7%; the average value of the bill rate minus the certificate of deposit rate is - 1.00%, a decrease from the previous value of - 0.93% [95].

Group 1: Hot News - China's President Xi Jinping will visit South Korea from October 30 to November 1 to attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting and conduct a state visit [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking opinions on iron - making and steel - making capacity replacement ratios, with a minimum of 1.5:1 in most cases and equal - volume replacement in three scenarios [2] - US CPI in September increased slightly less than expected, which may pave the way for the Fed to cut interest rates next week. The CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month in September and 3.0% year - on - year, while core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 3.0% year - on - year [2] - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur from October 25 - 26, and reached preliminary consensus on multiple important economic and trade issues [2] - The People's Bank of China will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on October 27, 2025 [2] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include coking coal, coke, soybean meal, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [3] Group 3: Holiday Overseas Market Performance - Commodity futures sector performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.95%, precious metals 30.89%, oilseeds and oils 9.67%, soft commodities 2.65%, non - ferrous metals 22.02%, coal - coking - steel - ore 13.28%, energy 3.00%, chemicals 10.74%, grains 1.13%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.66% [3] Group 4: Sector Position - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, but specific data is presented graphically [4] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.71% daily, 1.74% monthly, and 17.86% annually; other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index also have corresponding performance data [5] - Fixed - income: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures have different daily, monthly, and annual performance [5] - Commodity: CRB Commodity Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind Commodity Index have their respective performance data [5] - Other: US Dollar Index and CBOE Volatility Index have corresponding performance [5] Group 6: Trends of Major Commodities - The document presents the trends of various commodities such as BDI, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., through graphs [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 0.01 basis points to 3.488% while the 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields increased by 0.87 and 0.94 basis points, respectively, to 3.614% and 4.010% [2][4] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September was lower than expected, while the preliminary October Manufacturing PMI was reported at 52.2, exceeding expectations [3] - In China, from January to September, automobile exports reached 5.71 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 21% [3] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1991.00, down 3.21%, while the Nasdaq Index rose by 1.15% to 23204.87 [6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.01% to 47207.12, and the S&P 500 rose by 0.79% to 6791.69 [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3950.31, up 0.71%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 1.36% to 2491.35 [11]