Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year in June, marking the first rise after four consecutive months of decline [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on industrial prices, particularly in coal, electricity, and black metal smelting sectors [2][5] - The marginal improvement in CPI is attributed to the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, which saw a reduction in the year-on-year decline from 1.0% to 0.5% [3][4] Group 2 - Food prices experienced a year-on-year decline of 0.3%, with beef prices rising by 2.7% after 28 months of continuous decline, while pork prices fell by 8.5% [3][4] - Energy prices showed a slight recovery, with gasoline prices increasing by 0.4% month-on-month, contributing to a 0.1% rise in overall energy prices [4] - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest increase in nearly 14 months, indicating a stable rise in service prices [4][5] Group 3 - Industrial prices remain under significant pressure, with coal mining and washing prices dropping by 5.5% and 3.4% respectively, primarily due to ample supply and reduced thermal power demand [5][6] - Export-oriented industries, such as computer communication equipment and textiles, are facing price declines, reflecting weak external demand and trade barriers [5][6] - Some high-tech sectors, including wearable smart devices and aerospace manufacturing, are showing positive price growth, indicating resilience in new momentum industries [6]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1231 | 37 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1083 | 48 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 148 | -11 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1427563 | -187579 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1372230 | -154075 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -391471 | -1826 | | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -386664 | 5285 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 3736 | -297 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 799 | -3 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | -43 | -3 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -97 | 0 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -26 | -6 | | | 玻璃基差(日,元/吨) | 41 | -10 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1174 | 6 华中重 ...

Group 1: CPI Trends - June CPI shows a month-on-month decrease of -0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, ending a four-month streak of negative values[1] - The contribution of new price factors to the June CPI year-on-year growth is 0.1 percentage points, while the tailing factors contribute 0.0 percentage points[1] - The CPI structure reveals that food items decreased by -0.3% year-on-year, while non-food items increased by 0.1% year-on-year[1] Group 2: PPI Trends - June PPI shows a month-on-month decrease of -0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of -3.6%, marking 33 consecutive months of negative values[1] - The contribution of new price factors to the June PPI year-on-year growth is -2.0 percentage points, while tailing factors contribute -1.6 percentage points[3] - The PPI structure indicates that the production materials category decreased by -4.4% year-on-year, while the living materials category decreased by -1.4% year-on-year[3] Group 3: Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, the average year-on-year growth rate of CPI is projected at -0.03%, while PPI is projected at -3.20%, indicating a potential decline in nominal GDP growth compared to Q1[4] - The central government's emphasis on addressing low-price disorder in competition may lead to improvements in product quality and a gradual exit of outdated production capacity[4] - The contribution of tailing factors to PPI is expected to rise, potentially alleviating the extent of PPI declines in the coming months[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In June 2025, the CPI continued to recover, with the core CPI rising steadily, indicating that domestic demand is still steadily recovering. However, there are signs of a slowdown in consumption momentum. The PPI continued to decline due to structural and seasonal factors, which will drag down the profits of industrial enterprises and is not conducive to the continuous recovery of the CPI. The "anti-involution" policy may be accelerated to promote re - inflation [1][7]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Core CPI YoY Continues to Rise, and Domestic Demand Recovery Continues - In June, the CPI rose 0.1% YoY, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, slightly better than market expectations. The decline in the MoM rate narrowed. The recovery of consumer goods prices was the main driving force for the CPI to turn from decline to growth. The service CPI rose 0.5% YoY, while the consumer goods CPI fell 0.2% YoY, with the decline narrowing [8]. - Food prices fell 0.3% YoY, with the decline narrowing. Beef prices turned positive after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell for the first time after consecutive increases. Energy prices saw a narrower decline, mainly due to rising oil prices [8]. - The core CPI rose 0.7% YoY in June, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, showing a continuous upward trend since February. The MoM growth rate was flat compared to the previous month, slightly better than the seasonal average [8]. - In June, prices of clothing, education, culture and entertainment, healthcare, and other goods and services rose YoY, with the growth rates increasing compared to the previous month. Endogenous consumption continued to recover. With the support of the "trade - in" policy, prices of household appliances and cars continued to recover, but the price of communication tools turned negative for the first time this year [9]. - The recovery of the CPI in June was driven by factors such as the rise in crude oil prices due to the Middle East situation, the improvement of consumer confidence since September 2024, and the "trade - in" policy. However, prices of some policy - supported consumer goods have shown signs of decline [9]. 2. Structural and Seasonal Factors Affect the Decline of PPI Growth - In June, the PPI fell 3.6% YoY, exceeding market expectations of a 3.2% decline and down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The MoM decline was 0.4%, the same as the previous month. Prices of the mining, processing, and raw material industries all declined, with the decline rates widening [18]. - By industry, coal mining and washing, ferrous metal mining, and ferrous metal smelting and rolling had relatively large MoM declines, while oil and gas extraction and non - ferrous metal mining had relatively large increases. The decline in coal prices was due to increased alternative energy generation in summer and sufficient coal stocks. The decline in ferrous metal prices was due to the impact of weather on construction and sufficient supply. The rise in oil prices was mainly due to the escalation of the Israeli - Palestinian conflict [23]. - Since September 2024, China's macro - economy has been generally stable, and the PPI decline rate has briefly narrowed. However, since February 2025, the continuous decline in PPI may be due to supply - side structural factors [23]. 3. Persistent Low Inflation May Accelerate the "Anti - Involution" Policy - Since the Politburo meeting in July 2024 first mentioned preventing "involution - style" competition, "anti - involution" has been mentioned in many important occasions. Given the current low levels of CPI and PPI, the urgency and practical significance of "anti - involution" are stronger, and it may become an important means to promote re - inflation [24]. - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1st clearly required to legally regulate the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. On July 3rd, relevant departments and industry associations also took actions related to "anti - involution." Under the expectation of "anti - involution," prices of many commodities have risen. The "anti - involution" is a systematic project of supply - demand re - balance. If policy coordination is achieved, the PPI may turn positive from late 2025 to early 2026 [24][26].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,808.00 | +90.00↑ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,576.00 | +184.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 589,143.00 | +6757.00↑ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 433,593.00 | +24431.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -45,999.00 | -15137.00↓ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -51,970.00 | -1588.00↓ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 36.00 | -4.00↓ | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 38.00 | -4.00↓ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 85,444.00 | -547.00↓ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 17,855.00 | +5028.00↑ | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The inflation data for June shows a divergence between CPI and PPI, with CPI rising slightly while PPI continues to decline, indicating a complex interplay of commodity prices and domestic demand [2][8][69]. Group 1: Divergence in Commodity Prices - In June, PPI fell by 0.3 percentage points to -3.6% year-on-year, primarily due to falling prices of upstream commodities like coal and steel, while CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, supported by strong food prices and precious metals [2][9][69]. - The decline in PPI was influenced by oversupply in sectors such as steel, cement, and coal, which contributed to a 0.4% month-on-month drop in PPI, while rising international oil prices provided some support [2][9][69]. - Food prices, particularly fresh vegetables and beef, saw significant increases, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 7.9 percentage points to -0.4% year-on-year, contributing positively to CPI [12][47][69]. Group 2: Core Commodity PPI and CPI Trends - Core commodity PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting the impact of tariffs and low capacity utilization in domestic industries, with a slight recovery of 0.4 percentage points to -1% year-on-year [3][21][70]. - The decline in prices for industries with high export ratios, such as computer communications and electrical machinery, indicates ongoing price pressures [21][70]. - Conversely, core commodity CPI increased by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, driven by consumer stimulus policies, with notable price increases in durable goods and household textiles [27][70]. Group 3: Service CPI and Housing Market - Service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with core service CPI also holding steady at 0.8% [30][61][71]. - The rental component of the service CPI showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1%, below the historical average [30][71]. - The overall stability in service demand contrasts with the weaker performance of housing-related costs, indicating potential challenges in the housing market [30][71]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of policy measures and recovery in domestic demand is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, although significant downward pressure on commodity prices is anticipated in the second half of the year [35][70]. - Factors such as tariff disruptions, low global oil inventories, and weakened investment in real estate and manufacturing are likely to constrain commodity prices further [35][70]. - The low capacity utilization in downstream sectors poses challenges for PPI recovery, suggesting that PPI will likely remain weak compared to CPI in the coming months [35][70].

Core Viewpoint - The inflation data for June shows a divergence between CPI and PPI, with CPI rising slightly while PPI continues to decline, indicating a mixed economic environment influenced by various commodity prices [2][8][69]. Group 1: Divergence in Commodity Prices - In June, PPI fell by 0.3 percentage points to -3.6% year-on-year, primarily due to declining prices of upstream commodities like coal and steel, while CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, supported by rising food prices and platinum [2][9][69]. - The decline in PPI was driven by oversupply in sectors such as steel, cement, and coal, which contributed to a 0.4% month-on-month decrease, while international oil prices provided some support to PPI, contributing positively from oil and copper prices [2][9][69]. Group 2: Core Commodity PPI and CPI Trends - Core commodity PPI remains at historical lows, reflecting the impact of tariffs and low capacity utilization in domestic downstream industries, with a slight recovery of 0.4 percentage points to -1% year-on-year [3][21][70]. - In contrast, core commodity CPI increased by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, driven by consumer stimulus policies that have bolstered domestic demand, particularly in durable goods and household items [3][27][70]. Group 3: Service CPI Performance - Service CPI remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with core service CPI also holding steady at 0.8%, while rental prices showed weakness, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.1% [4][30][61]. - The overall demand for services has remained stable, but the rental component, which is a significant part of the service CPI, has not performed as well compared to previous years [4][30][61]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of policy measures and recovery in domestic demand is expected to alleviate inflationary pressures, but significant downward pressure on commodity prices is anticipated in the second half of the year, with PPI expected to underperform CPI [4][35][70]. - Factors such as tariff disturbances, low global oil inventories, and weakened investment in real estate and manufacturing are likely to constrain commodity prices, while low capacity utilization in downstream sectors will continue to suppress PPI recovery [4][35][70].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, the year-on-year CPI rose to 0.1%, and the year-on-year PPI fell to -3.6%. Gold and oil prices affected inflation, with gold contributing to the rise of core CPI but not being the main factor, and the increase in oil prices failing to reverse the decline of PPI due to domestic production seasonality and weakening export effects [1][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Two Core Concerns about Prices Amid Gold and Oil Price Fluctuations (1) Is the Rise of Core CPI Driven by Gold Prices or the Recovery of Demand? - Core CPI can be split into services, core consumer goods (excluding gold), and gold. In the first half of 2025, core CPI rose 0.5% cumulatively month-on-month, with gold contributing 0.13%, services 0.17%, and other core consumer goods 0.2%. Gold helped boost core CPI but was not the main factor. After excluding gold, core consumer goods' month-on-month performance in Q2 was weaker than in Q1, suggesting potential new consumption stimulus policies [2][10]. (2) Why Did the Year-on-Year PPI Decline in June Despite a Sharp Increase in Oil Prices? - In June, the PPI month-on-month decline remained at -0.4%. Although the 9% increase in oil prices boosted PPI by about 0.3 percentage points, the domestic production off-season and the weakening of the "rush to export" effect offset this impact. Industries such as ferrous metal smelting and processing, non-metallic mineral products, and coal-related industries affected the PPI month-on-month decline by about 0.33 percentage points. Some export-oriented industries also saw price drops [2][15]. 2. June CPI: Food Performed Better than Seasonal Averages, and Oil and Gold Prices Supported the Month-on-Month Recovery, with the Year-on-Year Rate Rising to 0.1% (1) Food Items: Rainfall Supported Fresh Vegetables, while Pork, Eggs, and Fresh Fruits Were Drags - The month-on-month CPI food item fell to around -0.4%, better than the seasonal average, affecting the CPI to decline by about 0.09 percentage points. Pork prices dropped 1.2% due to oversupply. Fresh food prices were mixed, with freshwater fish and fresh vegetables rising, while eggs and fresh fruits fell, overall affecting the CPI to decline by about 0.07 percentage points [19]. (2) Non-Food Items: Oil, Gold, and Rent Were Supports, while Cars and Tourism Were Drags - The month-on-month CPI non-food item recovered to around 0. Energy prices rose as domestic oil prices followed overseas trends, with gasoline prices rising 0.4%. Core consumer goods were dragged down by clothing and cars, while gold was a support. Services showed little change overall, with tourism weaker than seasonal and rent rising during the graduation season [21][27][28]. 3. June PPI: The Domestic Production Off-season and Some Export Industries Led to a Year-on-Year Decline to -3.6% (1) Overall: The Month-on-Month Decline of PPI Remained around -0.4% - The month-on-month decline of PPI remained around -0.4%, mainly dragged down by production materials, and consumer goods also weakened. Production materials prices fell 0.6%, and consumer goods prices turned negative [35]. (2) By Industry: The Crude Oil Industry Chain Was the Main Support, while Raw Material Manufacturing and Some Export Industries Were Drags - In June, about two-thirds of industrial producer industries saw price declines. The crude oil industry chain was the main support, with prices in related industries rising or their decline narrowing. Drags included raw material manufacturing industries such as building materials, energy industries like coal and electricity, and export-related industries such as electronics, electrical machinery, and textiles [35][39][44].

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of a 3.2% decline[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is estimated at 4.4%, slightly down from 4.6% in Q1[5] - The GDP deflator index is projected to be around -0.9% for Q2, compared to -0.8% in Q1[5] Group 2: CPI and PPI Analysis - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in the previous month[6] - The PPI's year-on-year decline widened from 3.3% to 3.6%, with production materials dropping by 4.4% year-on-year[35] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was 0.4%, consistent with the previous month[35] Group 3: Inventory and Price Dynamics - Actual inventory growth has increased from 5.7% at the end of last year to 7.0% in May, indicating potential price pressures[12] - The actual inventory growth in the mining and upstream manufacturing sectors has decreased significantly, impacting PPI positively when it approaches zero[13] - Among 39 comparable industries, 23 have higher inventory levels than last year, but only 8 exceed levels from the first half of 2015[17]

智通财经7月10日电，德国6月CPI同比增长2%，预期2%；6月CPI环比持平，符合预期。 ...