受下游新能源汽车和储能市场快速增长带动，磷酸铁锂材料需求大增，头部企业订单已排至2026年，产 能满产。 作者 | 宋子乔 经过一段时间的满产运行，多家磷酸铁锂龙头接连宣告减产检修。 12月26日早间，德方纳米公告，为确保生产设备高效、稳定、安全运行，保障公司产品质量，计划进行 年度设备检修与维护工作，检修时间从2026年1月1日起，预计一个月，本次检修属年度计划检修。 12月25日晚，湖南裕能、万润新能双双公告，拟对部分产线减产检修。 湖南裕能称其从年初至今产能利用率超100%，为维护设备正常运行和安全稳定生产，保障产品质量， 拟对部分生产线进行检修，检修时间从2026年1月1日起，预计一个月，本次检修预计减少公司磷酸盐正 极材料产品产量1.5—3.5万吨。 万润新能称，2025年四季度以来其磷酸铁锂产线已超负荷运转，为确保磷酸铁锂生产线安全、稳定、高 效运行，自2025年12月28日起，将对部分产线按照预定计划进行减产检修，预计检修时间为期一个月， 本次检修预计减少公司磷酸铁锂产量5000吨至2万吨。 与大厂减产检修同时段的，还有涨价潮。日前据《经济观察报》报道，近日磷酸铁锂正极材料生产厂家 集体提价的消 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to see a significant increase in hot-rolled coil production capacity in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 122.5%, leading to intensified market competition [3][16]. Production Capacity - In 2025, the net new capacity for hot-rolled coils was 8 million tons, with a record monthly production of 29.4362 million tons in October 2025 [3][16]. - The total new capacity expected for 2026 is 17.8 million tons, marking the third peak in rapid capacity growth since 2021, following peaks of 22.4 million tons in 2022 and 20.1 million tons in 2024 [3][16]. - The new production lines will primarily focus on widths above 1700mm, catering to construction and shipbuilding, while narrower lines will supply materials for galvanizing and pipes [3][16]. Production and Utilization Rates - The capacity utilization rate for hot-rolled coils reached 90.29% in 2025, a 2.78 percentage point increase, the highest level in five years [5][18]. - Monthly production is expected to continue rising in 2026, influenced by maintenance and production restrictions, with significant fluctuations based on profit changes [5][18]. Cost and Price Dynamics - Iron ore prices are projected to decline, with an average price drop of approximately 39.42 yuan per ton compared to 2025, leading to reduced cost support for hot-rolled coil prices [7][20]. - The average monthly price for iron ore in 2026 is expected to fluctuate between 1280-1480 yuan per ton, with the highest point anticipated in October and the lowest in July [7][20]. - The estimated cost of producing hot-rolled coils is around 2967 yuan per ton, with variations based on price fluctuations [8][21]. Export and Domestic Demand - Hot-rolled coil exports are likely to decrease in 2025, with a current shortfall of 9.1732 million tons compared to the previous year, and monthly exports falling below 2 million tons [9][22]. - Domestic demand for hot-rolled coils is expected to increase slightly in 2026, with total consumption projected at 31.62 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.38% [10][23]. - The demand from key downstream sectors such as cold-rolled, machinery, and construction is anticipated to grow, despite some declines in specific areas like container and shipbuilding [10][11][23]. Price Trends - The price of hot-rolled coils is expected to fluctuate between 3150-3450 yuan per ton in 2026, with a downward shift in the price center compared to 2025 [13][24]. - The overall market dynamics indicate a potential for increased supply and steady demand, leading to price pressures [13][24].

Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the equity market is showing signs of upward momentum, with the total A-share index rising by 0.60% and trading volume increasing by 467 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][2] - The report highlights that the market is attempting to establish new narratives, which historically accompany successful breakthroughs of previous highs at year-end [1][2] - The report suggests that the index is approaching previous highs, with the total A-share index breaking through 6400 points, nearing the highs of October and November [2] Group 2 - The report identifies strong performance in specific sectors, particularly defense, military, and communication industries, which have successfully broken through previous high points, indicating a positive market sentiment towards these sectors [2] - The commercial aerospace sector has led the market with a cumulative increase of 31.12% since November 24, and its trading volume has reached a historical high of 6.05% of total A-share trading volume [3] - The bond market is experiencing a mixed performance, with short-term bonds showing a downward trend while long-term bonds are under pressure due to rising yields influenced by equity market movements [4][5] Group 3 - The report notes that the commodity market has shifted from a broad rally to a more differentiated performance, with precious metals experiencing a decline while industrial metals remain resilient [6] - The report emphasizes that the long-term bullish logic for precious metals remains intact, but short-term volatility may arise due to profit-taking after significant price increases [7] - The report discusses the dynamics in the polysilicon industry, where price increases are being driven by supply-side adjustments, despite ongoing supply-demand imbalances [7]

在业绩方面，报告期期内（2022年、2023年、2024年以及2025年上半年）福恩股份营业收入波动明显，23年出现营收负增长，同样的在23年归母净利润出 现负增长，呈现先增后降的趋势，福恩股份预计25年营收较去年同期下降5.79%，扣除非经常性损益后归属于母公司股东的净利润较上年同期下降 16.86%，公司预测2025年度扣除非经常性损益后归属于母公司股东的净利润下滑，毛利率同样的也出现波动式下滑，23年和24年增长为负值，值得注意 的是，2025年1-6月，公司核心原材料坯布采购均价同比上涨5.82%，再生纱线采购均价上涨1.59%，成本上涨趋势明显，盈利空间被压缩，试问，还未上 市公司业绩就开始波动，并且预测营收利润都将出现下滑，这是否表明上市风险很大？另外，福恩股份来自终端客户的集中度相当高，而这些终端客户大 都是知名服装品牌商，如H&M、UNIQLO，来自这些前五大知名服装厂商的收入占比超过七成，甚至部分单一品牌商占比超过三成，而类似于这些品牌 商都会采取多供应商策略，频繁切换合作方，这是否会为公司未来带来许多的不确定性？ 值得注意的是，福分股份仅2022年一年分红达3.8亿元，而当年净利润仅2.7 ...

南华期货2026年度纯苯、苯乙烯展望 ——过剩格局下的再平衡之路 戴一帆 投资咨询证号：Z0015428 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月23日 第1章观点概要 【核心观点】 展望2026年，纯苯端，全年供需平衡表显示2026年纯苯供应过剩格局将延续。2026年纯苯自身投产仍 多且上半年检修季纯苯的月检修损失相较于前两年减少，进口预期较25年减少但预计减量有限，上半年国产 与进口供应预期均宽松；需求端非苯乙烯下游需求并无太多支撑，而苯乙烯链条需求预期转差，春节后纯苯 去库压力较大，上半年纯苯绝对价格与估值预计将继续承压。需要特别注意的是纯苯进口端的变动，关注美 国对于韩国纯苯货源的分流是否导致纯苯进口量不及预期。 苯乙烯方面，2026年苯乙烯全年供需预计小幅过剩。新投产角度，苯乙烯表现为供不应求，但2025 年"抢出口"和国补政策刺激下终端内需与外需均已提前透支，导致了当前苯乙烯下游3S环节以及终端的成品 库存累积，预计下游3S装置投产兑现到苯乙烯需求增量上要打折扣。上半年苯乙烯没有新装置待投，供需格 局相较于纯苯要好一些，一季度与纯苯一样面临去库压力，二季度进入检修季苯乙烯 ...

2025年12月11~12日，由《物流技术与应用》杂志主办的"第十三届全球智能物流产业发展大会暨2025全球物流装 备企业家年会"在苏州成功举办。作为本次大会的重要组成部分，供应链与采购论坛在11日下午举办。在去年首届 论坛倡导的"价值采购、合作共赢"理念的基础上，本届论坛进一步聚焦如何打破市场低价竞争的恶性循环、重构 可持续发展的行业生态生态。会上，北京伍强智能科技有限公司董事长尹军琪率先发表主题演讲《从"价格 战"到"价值战"——转变思路，走高质量发展之路》，表达了行业人士的共同心声，现场反响热烈。以下是基于演 讲内容重新编辑修改的文章。 尹军琪 北京伍强智能科技有限公司董事长 对绝大多数企业来说，价格战是一剂毒药，但又不得不喝。价格战的危害其实是不言自明的。 首先，价格战会直接导致"当量市场容量"逐渐萎缩，行业就业能力下降。"当量市场容量"是指产品给市场带来的 真实价值，其中主要是能够消化的人力资源总量。价格战表面上是产品价格的下降，但实质上是减少了行业的就 业机会。以物流装备行业为例，2024年的市场规模约为1100亿元（不含叉车、托盘），按照机械行业平均生产力 水平计算，大约可以容纳10万人就业。但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a surge in long-term contracts, indicating a robust demand and supply chain stability, but there are concerns about potential overcapacity similar to past experiences in the solar industry [1][2][12]. Group 1: Long-term Contracts and Market Dynamics - Long-term contracts in the lithium battery sector have exploded, with significant agreements such as Longpan Technology's contract worth 45 billion yuan for 1.3 million tons of cathode materials from 2025 to 2030 [1]. - Major players like CATL and Wanrun New Energy have also signed substantial contracts, reflecting a trend of large-scale procurement across the industry [1][2]. - The storage market is booming, with companies like Haibosi Chuang and Hichain Energy entering into multi-year agreements for significant quantities of energy storage products [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Production Capacity - The lithium battery supply chain is currently under pressure due to high demand, leading to full production rates across various segments [3][4]. - Companies are reporting unprecedented production levels, with some indicating that December, typically a slow month, will see double-digit growth in battery production [4]. - The production capacity utilization rates for leading companies have exceeded 90%, with some reaching 100% [6][11]. Group 3: Price Increases and Material Demand - The surge in demand has led to rising prices for key raw materials, including lithium carbonate and electrolytes, with lithium carbonate prices increasing by 31.80% over two months [8]. - The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium has skyrocketed by over 260% in five months, prompting companies to secure long-term contracts to stabilize costs [8]. Group 4: Expansion Plans and Industry Outlook - The current expansion wave in the lithium battery sector is driven by the need to meet long-term orders, with over 510 GWh of new production capacity planned, involving investments of 176.2 billion yuan [11]. - Major companies are actively expanding their production capabilities, with CATL planning over 70 GWh of new capacity across multiple locations [9][11]. - Despite the optimistic outlook, there are concerns about potential overcapacity, as the industry may face challenges similar to those experienced in the solar sector [12][14].

Economic Overview - The Chinese economy in 2025 shows a clear trend of strong external demand and export growth, while internal demand remains weak, particularly in real estate and fixed asset investment, leading to continued pressure on consumption [1][3] Internal vs External Demand - The balance between internal and external demand is crucial for determining the economic direction, with final consumption contributing 2.8 percentage points to GDP, capital formation contributing 0.9 percentage points, and net exports contributing 1.5 percentage points [2] Employment and Consumer Sentiment - A significant portion of the population feels pessimistic about employment, with 57.4% of respondents in a survey expressing concerns about job prospects, leading to a low consumer sentiment index of 25.8 [4] - Retail sales growth remains weak, with a year-on-year increase of only 1.3% in November, influenced by high base effects from the previous year and a shift in consumer behavior towards saving rather than spending [4] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market shows a divergence between first-tier cities, which have seen relatively stable prices, and lower-tier cities, which have experienced significant declines. However, by late 2025, this divergence is expected to narrow [5] - New home and second-hand home prices in major cities have declined, with notable drops in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, heavily influenced by a 15.9% drop in real estate investment. Private investment has also declined by 5.3% [13] - Government and state-owned enterprise investments are becoming the primary drivers of new investments, with social financing growing by 8.5% year-on-year [13] Export Performance - Exports are experiencing a structural transformation, with machinery and electronics exports accounting for 60.9% of total exports, growing by 8.8%, while labor-intensive product exports have decreased [11] - Trade with the U.S. has declined by 16.9%, while trade with ASEAN countries has increased by 8.5%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [12] Sectoral Disparities - New industries supported by national policies are showing stable income and development expectations, but their ability to create jobs is limited due to automation [6] - Traditional sectors, such as new energy vehicles, are facing challenges from price wars, limiting their ability to provide substantial employment opportunities [7] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is characterized by a decline in large durable goods, while basic and discretionary spending remains stable but under price pressure [10] - The trend of "emotional consumption" is evident, with increased travel and entertainment participation but lower average spending per outing [10] Government Debt and Real Estate Risks - The real estate sector faces significant risks, including asset-liability risks from falling prices and systemic pressures on local finances due to shrinking land revenue [15] - Government debt is increasing, with a year-on-year growth of 18.8%, while public budget revenues are only growing by 0.8%, indicating ongoing fiscal pressures [16]

这一交易发生的时间点，正值公司业绩加速下滑的敏感时期。公司前三季度营业总收入为89.86亿元， 同比下降20.64%，归母净利润-2.04亿元，而去年同期盈利1.16亿元。其中，第三季度营收同比下降 38.29%，归母净利润-1.35亿元，亏损环比增幅达155%。曾经的高增长神话终结，取而代之的是营收与 利润的全面下滑。 容百科技在财报中将业绩下滑归因于"国内市场竞争加剧、国际政治经济形势变化等多重因素影响"。这 些外部环境变化导致销量下滑，产能闲置，单位产品分摊的固定成本上升。 毛利率的恶化趋势更为明显。2025年前三季度，公司毛利率为7.28%，同比减少20.05个百分点。第三季 度单季情况更加糟糕，毛利率已降至4.35%。 日前，全球三元正极材料龙头企业容百科技发布公告，拟使用约3.42亿元收购贵州新仁新能源科技有限 公司约54.97%股份，并追加1.4亿元增资，交易总金额达4.8亿元。交易完成后，容百科技将持有贵州新 仁93.20%股权，后者成为控股子公司并纳入合并报表范围。 容百科技此次收购发生在行业整体"寒冬"背景下。2025年上半年，中国锂电正极材料行业平均产能利用 率仅约50%，行业整体面临产 ...

以下文章来源于中国宏观经济论坛 CMF ，作者杨瑞龙 中国宏观经济论坛 CMF . 创立于2006年，由中国人民大学国发院、经济学院、中诚信国际信用评级有限公司联合主办。依托人大 经济学一级学科排名全国第一的优秀研究力量，诚邀社会知名专家，集中从事中国宏观经济动态和重大 经济问题研究，定期发布分析与预测报告。 当前宏观经济呈现出明显的"供强需弱"特征，外贸表现尚可，但投资与消费需求不足，物价水平处 于低位。针对这种宏观形势,最近召开的中央经济工作会议提出加大逆周期调节和跨周期调节力度。 逆周期政策主要是从需求端发力的短期总量需求管理，着眼于刺激总需求；跨周期调节显然主要针对 的是供给面，通过结构性调整与挖掘新增长动能来优化供给、提质增效。这种逆周期调节和跨周期调 节的相互融合，是基于稳中求进、提质增效的总方针。 这样一种供需两端同时发力、短中期政策相互配合的政策安排源于对当前经济下滑性质的判断。当前 中国经济下行压力既来自于周期性因素，即由需求不足所导致的下行；同时也有一些中长期因素，主 要是供给层面，传统增长动能衰减导致潜在增长率下降，引发经济下行。 因此，当前中国经济下行，既有短期因素，也有中长期因素，包 ...