达利欧认为未来一到两年全球经济将因债务、政治冲突和地缘政治三大周期叠加而面临危险。虽然AI行业已现泡沫迹象，但他认为需要关注泡沫破裂的 催化剂——货币紧缩或被迫出售资产以满足债务义务。 达利欧指出，全球债务负担已开始在市场局部施加压力，各国政府既无法增税也无法削减福利，陷入财政困境。这一结构性矛盾正在加剧国内政治极 化，左翼和右翼民粹主义的兴起意味着不可调和的分歧。 随着2026年美国中期选举临近，达利欧预计政治冲突将进一步加剧。高利率环境和市场领导力的集中化进一步加剧了这种脆弱性。 桥水基金创始人达利欧警告称，未来一到两年全球经济将面临危险局面，但他建议投资者不要仅因估值过高就匆忙撤离人工智能投资，而应关注泡沫破 裂的实质性信号。 泡沫中的投资策略 周一达利欧接受CNBC采访时表示， 受债务、政治冲突和地缘政治三大周期叠加影响，当前市场在多个领域已出现裂痕，包括私募股权、风险投资以及 正在再融资的债务领域。 近期已有多位市场人士对AI泡沫发出警告，包括OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman也暗示市场存在泡沫迹象。曾准确预测2008年次贷危机的投资者 Michael Burry预计，人工智能市场泡沫可能在 ...

桥水基金创始人达利欧警告称，未来一到两年全球经济将面临危险局面，但他建议投资者不要仅因估值 过高就匆忙撤离人工智能投资，而应关注泡沫破裂的实质性信号。 周一达利欧接受CNBC采访时表示，受债务、政治冲突和地缘政治三大周期叠加影响，当前市场在多个 领域已出现裂痕，包括私募股权、风险投资以及正在再融资的债务领域。 达利欧指出，全球债务负担已开始在市场局部施加压力，各国政府既无法增税也无法削减福利，陷入财 政困境。这一结构性矛盾正在加剧国内政治极化，左翼和右翼民粹主义的兴起意味着不可调和的分歧。 随着2026年美国中期选举临近，达利欧预计政治冲突将进一步加剧。高利率环境和市场领导力的集中化 进一步加剧了这种脆弱性。 泡沫中的投资策略 达利欧认为当前泡沫与2000年科技泡沫相似，但程度不及1929年。 尽管承认AI行业已进入泡沫区域，达利欧强调投资者不应仅因估值拉升就急于退出。他表示，历史上 所有泡沫都发生在技术剧变时期，关键是识别泡沫破裂的信号。 他指出，泡沫破裂的催化剂通常来自货币紧缩或被迫出售资产以满足债务义务。 近期已有多位市场人士对AI泡沫发出警告，包括OpenAI首席执行官Sam Altman也暗示市场存 ...

全球资本市场正经历以人工智能为核心的新一轮科技投资热潮。 一方面，科技投资以罕见强度重塑增长结构，在传统行业承压背景下，科技部门以高强度资本开支扮演了类财政刺激角色。另一方面，在财政扩 张与隐性货币化预期下，市场对流动性收缩的敏感度下降，估值扩张呈现典型泡沫动力学特征。 但在投资热潮之外，另一种因AI技术发展带来的职业困境或许更贴近普通人的现实。AI提升了基础性工作的执行效率，工作助手看似"变多了"， 但KPI、考核的压力却越来越高，"为什么我们比以前更累？"成为职场白领们共同的职业困境。 全球知名投资人拉斯・特维德（Lars Tvede，下称拉斯）日前在接受澎湃科技（www.thepaper.cn）专访时指出，短期内不需要担心AI有泡沫，但 泡沫可能会在未来两三年内出现。目前AI相关投资（约占全球GDP的2%）仍处于绝对合理的区间，远低于历史上如19世纪铁路热潮时期的泡沫水 平。他认为，仅以当前可见的商业模式来评判AI未来的经济潜力，是一个巨大的误判。未来几年，局面将截然不同。 拉斯是一位横跨金融、科技与未来研究领域的丹麦学者、连续创业者。2016年，他与人共同创立了风险投资基金"北欧之眼"（NordicE ...

来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：万得基金） 1、 我国信息通信领域首个国家重大科技基础设施正式投入运行。我国信息通信领域首个国家重大科技基础 设施——未来网络试验设施正式投入运行。该设施将为工业制造、能源电力、教育医疗、低空经济等领域 提供开放试验支撑，并在AI大模型训练、算力调度、算网协同、光电融合等前沿方向开展示范应用。 2、市场监管总局发布外卖平台服务管理国家标准。市场监管总局发布实施外卖平台推荐性国家标准《外卖 平台服务管理基本要求》，推动解决"幽灵外卖"，规范平台收费与促销行为，强化配送员权益保障，进一 步推动外卖行业在良性竞争中创新发展。 3、11月一线城市二手住宅成交套数创7个月新高。易居研究院数据显示，11月一线城市二手住宅成交套数 达4.9万套，创下7个月新高，环比大幅增长20%。今年前11个月，一线城市二手住宅累计成交51.9万套，同 比增长约5%，为近四年来首次突破51万套大关。 4、多只绩优基金进一步下调限购额度。近期，多只绩优基金启动"限购模式"。Wind数据显示，仅12月4 日，就有29家基金管理人密集对旗下41只基金实施限购，限购额度从100元至1500万元不等。部分基金产品 已进行 ...

近日，以准确预测2008年次贷危机而闻名的"大空头"Michael Burry接受了一档播客节目的访谈。 在对话中，Michael Burry对当前美股市场的展望持极度悲观态度，认为未来几年可能会迎来一场类似 2000年的长期熊市。他判断，由于被动投资（指数基金）占据市场主导地位（超过50%），未来市场下 跌时将是"一体下跌"，在美国很难靠多头仓位保护自己。 Burry将当前的AI投资热潮类比为2000年的"数据传输泡沫"，指出两者都存在资本开支与股市见顶的时 滞。他押注Palantir在两年内会大幅下跌，看空的核心理由是其不合理的估值和不健康的财务结构，特 别是公司在收入不高的情况下，通过大量高成本的股权激励造就了多位亿万富翁，而历史上几乎没有赚 到过真正的利润。 以下为访谈亮点总结： 以下为访谈实录，部分内容有删减： 我认为现在股市的状况不妙，未来几年可能会很糟糕，可能会迎来一段类似 2000 年那 样的长期熊市。 现在，我认为整个市场会一体下跌，在美国很难靠持有多头仓位同时保护自己。 例如，Palantir 现在是 200 美元一股，而我认为它只值 30 美元甚至更低，我就会在执 行价 50 美元的位置 ...

Group 1 - Chinese and Indian companies are planning to attract investors through IPOs, which is expected to boost Asian stock capital market transactions next year [1][6] - The total amount of Asian stock capital market transactions has reached $267 billion this year, a 15% increase compared to 2024, marking the first annual growth since 2021 [6] - Hong Kong is projected to dominate Asian stock capital market transactions in 2025, with an expected transaction amount of $75 billion, more than three times last year's fundraising amount [6] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the recovery of the Chinese economy and the continuous expansion of India are the two main engines driving Asian stock issuance this year [6][7] - Equirus Capital forecasts that India could raise up to $20 billion through IPOs by 2026, with over 300 companies having submitted listing applications in Hong Kong [2][6] Group 3 - Global investors are diversifying their portfolios and turning to non-U.S. assets due to uncertainties in U.S. trade and geopolitical policies, benefiting the Asian market [3][9] - The Hang Seng Index has risen nearly 30% this year, outperforming U.S. benchmark indices, while the Indian benchmark index has increased by approximately 10.8% [9] Group 4 - Concerns about a potential AI bubble have emerged following significant volatility in U.S. stock markets, raising questions about whether the current market is experiencing a speculative bubble [4][10] - Several Chinese AI companies are planning IPOs, with total transaction amounts potentially reaching several billion dollars, further intensifying valuation concerns [10] Group 5 - There is still a significant amount of AI technology and digital infrastructure assets in Asia that have not yet entered the public market, but there is no consensus on whether valuations are excessively high [5][10] - Investors are shifting towards high-quality, cash-generating companies while moving away from high-valuation growth companies as the market reassesses spending and profit prospects in the AI sector [11]

Core Insights - A potential artificial intelligence bubble is expected to deflate more rapidly than previous technology cycles, but this will lead to a stronger rebound as corporate adoption aligns with infrastructure spending [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The deflation of the AI bubble is anticipated to occur at a faster pace compared to past tech cycles [1] - Corporate adoption of AI technologies is projected to catch up with the current levels of infrastructure spending [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The rebound following the deflation of the AI bubble is expected to be even stronger than previous recoveries [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with decreasing open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. In the fundamental raw material segment, copper concentrate processing fees remain in the negative range, and the continuous tight supply of raw materials still supports copper prices. On the supply side, after the previous concentrated maintenance, smelting capacity may be released again, but the tight supply of raw materials will limit the capacity to some extent, so the domestic refined copper supply will only increase slightly. On the demand side, the impact of the off - season for consumption is gradually emerging, and the relatively high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption. In this context, downstream purchasing sentiment may be more cautious. In terms of inventory, the overall social inventory remains at a medium - low level, but there may be some inventory accumulation due to the off - season. In terms of consumption, the year - end rush of domestic power infrastructure and the year - end sales push of the new energy vehicle industry support the demand to some extent. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, up 0.0683 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market with a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are above the 0 axis and the green bars are contracting. The overall view is to conduct light - position volatile trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 89,210 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 11,253 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the open interest of the main contract is 223,984 lots, down 1,622 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures holders is - 34,929 lots, down 7,914 lots; the LME copper inventory is 161,800 tons, up 2,375 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 97,930 tons, down 12,673 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 28,969 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 88,980 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 89,085 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan; the Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 48.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 39 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the CU main contract is - 230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread is 69.18 US dollars/ton, up 0.08 US dollars; the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons; the weekly TC of domestic copper smelters is - 42.75 US dollars/kiloton, down 0.43 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 79,020 yuan/metal ton, down 440 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 79,720 yuan/metal ton, down 440 yuan; the weekly processing fee for blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly processing fee for blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons; the monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons; the weekly social copper inventory is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 60,840 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 74,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons; the cumulative monthly investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan; the cumulative monthly real estate development investment is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 million pieces, down 194,236.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.96%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.20%, down 0.09%; the at - the - money implied volatility is 17.45%, down 0.0114; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, up 0.0683 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng Shanjie said in a signed article that the "15th Five - Year Plan" will prioritize the construction of a modern industrial system, focusing on optimizing traditional industries and developing emerging and future industries, and accelerating the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy; US President Trump plans to announce the next Fed Chair nominee in early 2026, and it is reported that he has "pre - selected" White House National Economic Council Director Hassett; the OECD predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 3.2% and 2.9% in the next two years, with the US economy growing 2% and 1.7% and the eurozone economy growing 1.3% and 1.2%; the UNCTAD predicts that the global economic growth will slow to 2.6% in 2025, lower than 2.9% in 2024, and emphasizes the impact of financial market volatility on global trade [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 3 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局弱稳，钢矿震荡运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0%日涨幅，量仓扩大，移仓换月完 成。现阶段，重大会议临近，乐观预期发酵，给予钢价支撑，但供需双 弱局面下螺纹钢基本面并未好转，淡季钢价易承压，预期现实博弈下预 计钢价延续震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.18%日跌幅，量仓收缩，移仓换 月将完成。目前来看，得益于市场情绪回暖，热卷期价震荡走高，但供 应压力未退，且需求有 ...

Core Points - Trump hinted at Hasset as the next Federal Reserve Chair, impacting the dollar index negatively [1] - The OECD forecasts global economic growth rates of 3.2% and 2.9% for the next two years, consistent with previous predictions [1][2] - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the dollar, with the onshore yuan breaking the 7.07 mark and offshore yuan reaching a 14-month high [1] Group 1 - Trump's announcement regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair could influence market expectations and the dollar's performance [1] - The OECD's economic outlook indicates resilience in the global economy but highlights risks such as trade barriers and fiscal vulnerabilities [1][2] - The Chinese yuan's trading volume increased by 12.6% in November, although the average daily trading volume remains below October levels [2] Group 2 - The OECD predicts that developed economies will end the current rate-cutting cycle by the end of 2026, with the Fed expected to lower rates only twice before maintaining a range of 3.25% to 3.5% throughout 2027 [2] - Market conditions are expected to become more variable following the December FOMC meeting, influenced by weak U.S. employment data and speculation about the next Fed Chair [2] - The Australian and New Zealand Bank anticipates a moderate appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, projecting it to reach around 6.95 by the end of 2026 [2]