Core Viewpoint - The article presents a series of predictions for 2026, covering various global political, economic, and technological trends, highlighting uncertainties and potential developments in multiple sectors. Trade and Tariffs - Trump's tariff policies are unlikely to raise average tariff levels above current rates due to complexities and market reactions, including stock market declines and consumer price increases [4][5]. Geopolitical Developments - Ukraine is not expected to concede the Donbas region in peace negotiations, as military and political factors make such a concession too risky for President Zelensky [5]. - The U.S. Republican Party is predicted to lose control of the House in the upcoming midterm elections, allowing the Democratic Party to block Trump's agenda [5]. Technology and Investment - The artificial intelligence bubble is expected to burst by 2026, with significant losses anticipated for venture capital and private equity, particularly affecting smaller companies [5]. - Home robots are anticipated to become available, with a startup accepting pre-orders for a humanoid robot priced at $20,000, expected to be delivered by 2026 [11]. Currency and Economic Trends - The Chinese yuan is not expected to appreciate significantly, with a projected exchange rate of 7.01 against the dollar, and a one-year forward rate of 6.89 [7]. - Africa's economic growth is expected to slightly surpass Asia's, driven by structural reforms and favorable fiscal policies, despite ongoing challenges [12]. Financial Markets - Gold prices are projected to rise, potentially exceeding $5,000 per ounce, driven by central bank purchases and as a hedge against economic uncertainties [12]. - The likelihood of a significant increase in private credit defaults is high, as companies struggle with rising interest rates, leading to potential bankruptcies [10]. Political Landscape - France is not expected to hold early elections, as political focus shifts towards the 2027 presidential elections [6]. - The leadership of the UK Labour Party may face challenges following poor performance in local elections, with potential for internal strife [9].

Group 1 - European stock markets rebounded on Tuesday, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 index rising 0.5% to surpass the 590-point mark, reaching a new all-time high [2] - The UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, and German DAX indices each increased by approximately 0.6%, while the Italian FTSE MIB index saw a gain of 1.2% [2] - Mining stocks led the blue-chip indices, with Fresnillo's stock price surging by 5%, and peers like Anglo American, Antofagasta, and Glencore rising between 2% and 2.5% [2] Group 2 - Precious metal futures prices rebounded on Tuesday morning, with gold prices increasing by 1.3% to $4,399.10 per ounce, and silver prices soaring by 6.9% to $75.32 per ounce [2] - Defense stocks experienced a rebound after a previous decline, with companies like Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin seeing stock price increases of about 2%, and year-to-date gains approaching 200% [2] - The performance of defense stocks was previously affected by ongoing peace negotiations between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky, leading to mixed results in major European indices on Monday [2] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific region, most stock markets declined overnight, influenced by concerns over an artificial intelligence bubble and a sell-off in technology stocks on Wall Street [3] - Notable declines were observed in major U.S. tech stocks, including Nvidia, which fell over 1%, and Palantir Technologies, Oracle, and metaverse platform companies also faced downward pressure [3] - European markets on Tuesday did not have any significant corporate earnings reports or economic data releases [3]

Economic Overview - The global economy in 2025 is expected to show resilience despite challenges such as U.S. tariffs, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and increased financial volatility, with growth projected to exceed expectations [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, while the U.S. economy is expected to grow only 2.0% in 2025 and further decline to 1.7% in 2026 [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to be the main drivers of global growth, with a forecasted growth rate of 4.2% in 2025, particularly strong in ASEAN countries at 4.7% [1] Trade Dynamics - Global trade is undergoing a transformation, with a 4.9% year-on-year increase in global goods trade volume in the first half of 2025, and an annual forecast adjustment to 2.4% [2] - The growth in trade is attributed to both pre-tariff stockpiling in the U.S. and expanding trade among developing countries, with Asia contributing significantly to global trade growth [2] - The trade system faces deep challenges, including unilateral tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, which have created significant turmoil in the past 80 years [2] Technological and Green Transition - AI and green transitions are identified as dual driving forces for economic growth, with AI investments expected to boost global trade by 34% to 37% by 2040 [3] - However, there are risks associated with AI investments, which may resemble the internet bubble if returns do not meet expectations [3] - China's investments in renewable energy technologies have reduced global clean energy costs, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeding 50% [3] China's Economic Stability - China's GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 5.2%, with the total expected to surpass 140 trillion yuan for the year, driven by consumption and manufacturing investment [4] - The country is enhancing its macroeconomic stability through policies aimed at high-level opening up and expanding cooperation, including the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port [4] - China's focus on AI and biotechnology in its 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to provide market opportunities and technology transfer for developing countries [4] Future Outlook - The resilience of the global economy in 2025 is attributed to technological breakthroughs and the rise of emerging economies, with a need to find balance amid uncertainties in 2026 [4] - Potential market volatility may arise from trade policy disagreements, U.S. debt risks, and uncertainties in Japan's stimulus plans, but opportunities remain in AI applications and green technology [4]

Group 1: Global Economic Context - In the post-pandemic era, global economies have largely implemented monetary and fiscal easing to counteract recession, leading to rising government deficits and debt levels [1][24] - The main paths to resolve high government debt amid growth pressures are identified as: growth through technological advancement, inflation to erode debt, and fiscal tightening [25][28] - The current global economic environment is characterized by a trend of re-inflation and economic recovery, supported by continued monetary easing and fiscal expansion [3][24] Group 2: AI as a Growth Engine - AI is viewed as the sole engine for growth-driven debt reduction, with the industry still in an upward trend despite concerns over a potential bubble [2][45] - The market sentiment around AI remains optimistic but not euphoric, with high GPU utilization indicating no excessive idle capacity [52][66] - Major tech companies are experiencing significant profit growth, with Nvidia's profit growth projected at 581.3% for 2023, indicating strong performance in the AI sector [91] Group 3: Inflation and Gold - Gold is expected to benefit from the ongoing debt crisis, with three main reasons supporting a bullish outlook: macroeconomic narratives favoring gold as a safe haven, declining real interest rates, and continued demand from ETFs and central banks [2][25] - The inflationary environment is anticipated to support commodity prices, including gold, as governments face challenges in managing high debt levels [24][25] Group 4: Asset Allocation for 2026 - The asset allocation strategy for 2026 suggests a focus on assets that cannot be changed by the world (like precious metals) and those that can change the world (like the AI industry) [11][12] - The equity markets are expected to be supported by loose fiscal and monetary policies, with a slow bull market anticipated for A/H shares and a neutral to bullish outlook for US stocks [3][12] - Commodity markets are projected to see upward momentum, particularly in gold, silver, and copper, driven by global energy transitions and AI-related infrastructure demands [3][12]

伯里再启"预言家"模式，斥资1000万美元做空AI双雄。但问题在于他不确定泡沫何时会破。网友调 侃："他过去预测20次衰退，只中2次"...... 由于过早地嗅到危机而成为人群中的异类，迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）对这类"剧情"并不陌生。 正如电影《大空头》（The Big Short）中的经典场景：克里斯蒂安·贝尔（Christian Bale）饰演的伯里， 向投资者说明他做空美国房地产市场的押注。若判断正确，市场崩盘后，这位对冲基金经理将通过类似 保险的合约斩获7亿美元巨额收益；若判断失误，他的基金将在几个季度内破产。 "等着瞧，一定会有回报的，"电影里的伯里说道，"我或许下手早了，但我没说错。" "又是 老一套！"一位投资者反驳道。 如今，现实中的伯里正试图说服华尔街：他能从人工智能（AI）企业英伟达（NVDA）和Palantir （PLTR）的股价下跌中获利。今年以来，AI行业一直是推动市场创下历史新高的核心动力，但过去十 年大多保持低调的伯里，近期再度现身，直言AI板块存在泡沫，且即将破裂。 但问题在于：他不确定泡沫何时会破。 伯里这种直言不讳的"异类"，很适合成为迈克尔·刘易斯（Mi ...

Core Insights - The current wave of investment in AI is characterized by significant capital inflows, raising concerns about potential "bubbles" in valuations and whether these investments will translate into productivity gains [1][3] - Despite the concerns, companies investing in AI may find the cost of over-investment less severe than the risk of falling behind competitors [1][2] - China is emerging as a major player in various technological fields, including AI, renewable energy, and robotics, potentially becoming a leading force globally [1][7][8] Investment Trends - AI investments are surging, with major tech companies dominating the market, as evidenced by the "Big Seven" in the US accounting for 40% of the S&P 500 index [1] - The investment landscape is influenced by a "fear of missing out" (FOMO) mentality, leading to potentially excessive capital allocation beyond optimal returns [2][4] - The current investment trend may be likened to an arms race, where companies prioritize staying ahead of competitors over achieving the best investment returns [2][3] Market Valuation - There is a consensus that some level of valuation bubble exists in the AI sector, although the extent is uncertain [3][5] - The market is experiencing high volatility, with no clear consensus on the future direction of valuations [3][4] - Historical parallels are drawn to the internet bubble, where initial overvaluation was followed by the emergence of substantial companies that transformed the market [5][6] China's Technological Advancements - China is making significant strides in AI, green technology, and robotics, with the potential to become a dominant force in these sectors [7][8] - The country is leading in the deployment of industrial robots, surpassing the total number deployed by other nations [8] - China's advancements in AI and technology are expected to narrow the technological gap with the US, with both countries possessing the necessary talent and infrastructure for AI development [7][9] Global Economic Dynamics - The shifting global economic focus towards Asia is expected to strengthen China's relationships with ASEAN countries and the Middle East, fostering mutual benefits [10] - Middle Eastern countries are increasingly investing in technology and digital sectors, which may lead to new economic dynamics and partnerships with Asian nations, including China [10]

Group 1: Market Overview - The traditional Christmas holiday period has led to low volatility in markets, but this year is different due to heightened risk aversion and supply-demand imbalances in the precious metals market [1] - The U.S. stock market remains stable despite strong GDP performance, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.17%, indicating that current monetary policy is not expected to tighten further [2] - Concerns over the AI bubble and its impact on tech stocks have dampened short-term momentum for these assets, with the VIX index near yearly lows [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals like gold and silver have reached historical highs, driven by investor demand amid expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [5][6] - Gold prices have surged, with forecasts suggesting it could reach $5,000 by the end of 2026, supported by central bank purchases and a trend towards de-dollarization [5] - Silver has seen significant price increases, attributed to both safe-haven demand and structural growth in industrial applications, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels [6] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Oracle's stock has dropped 30% this quarter, heading towards its largest quarterly decline since the 2001 internet bubble, following disappointing revenue and cash flow results [3] - Oracle plans to invest $50 billion in capital expenditures by FY2026, a 43% increase from previous plans, raising concerns about its ability to meet these obligations without renegotiating contracts [3] - The AI sector's heavy investment and poor returns have led to a significant increase in perceived risk, with 45% of fund managers identifying the AI bubble as a major market risk [5] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market has been in a state of supply-demand imbalance since 2021, with increasing demand from energy transition technologies [6][7] - Platinum and palladium prices have surged due to tightening supply and uncertainty in tariff policies, with platinum prices up approximately 176% this year [7][8] - The market for platinum and palladium is smaller than that of gold, leading to greater price volatility with minimal investment shifts [8]

2025.12. 26 本文字数：2214，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 樊志菁 本周西方迎来传统节日圣诞节，随着诸多市场进入假日交易时段，通常情况下行情往往处于低波动状 态。今年的情况有所不同。 节后首个交易日，避险情绪、供需失衡等因素继续推动资产规模较小的贵金属市场狂欢。 相比之 下，人工智能AI泡沫担忧、货币政策不明朗让流动性更好的明星科技股失去了短期进一步上行的动 力。 美股波澜不惊 作为节前公布的重磅数据，美国三季度国内市场总值（GDP）表现强劲，但美债利率却未出现相应 上扬，美国10年期国债收益率徘徊在4.17%，10年期与2年期国债利差保持31个基点的正值区间。 BK asset management宏观策略师施罗斯伯格（Boris Schlossberg）在接受第一财经采访时表 示，这向市场释放的信号是：当前货币政策虽处于限制性区间，但并不会进一步收紧，是美元走弱、 股市企稳的核心逻辑。他认为，短期内股市表现近似于 "低波动套息资产"——标普500指数与纳斯达 克综合指数保持强势，市场波动性整体受到压制，如恐慌指数（VIX ）徘徊在年内低点附近。 率的影响，人工智能概念股的估值已处 ...

Group 1 - The AI market is expected to experience a fragmented landscape by 2026, with significant volatility observed in tech stocks during the last quarter of 2025, raising concerns about an AI bubble [2][6] - Major companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are making substantial investments in AI infrastructure providers such as Nvidia and Broadcom, with the first-tier companies, including OpenAI and Anthropic, attracting $176.5 billion in venture capital in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][6] - The Blue Whale Growth Fund emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between companies that are spending on AI and those that are generating profits, as many of the "Magnificent 7" companies have significant valuation premiums [2][6] Group 2 - The bubble components in the AI sector are concentrated in specific sub-sectors rather than the entire market, with risks associated with companies that have not yet turned a profit, particularly in quantum computing [3][7] - The shift in business models among tech giants from asset-light operations to heavy asset models is evident, as they invest heavily in GPUs, data centers, and AI-driven products, altering their risk profiles [3][7] - The valuation standards for companies in the AI space are changing, as it is no longer reasonable to evaluate them based on software or light capital expenditure metrics, especially as firms explore financing for AI initiatives [4][7] Group 3 - Companies are increasingly turning to the bond market for financing AI infrastructure, but there is caution among investors regarding excessive reliance on debt [4][7] - If incremental revenues from AI do not exceed expenditures, profit margins will be pressured, leading to investor skepticism about returns [4][8] - As hardware and infrastructure depreciation occurs, performance disparities among companies may widen, necessitating consideration of these costs in investment evaluations [8]

拾象CEO 李广密 今天推出第一篇的文字版本： 访谈：张小珺 x Freda Duan 《站在2025年之外》是我们推出的年终对话系列，由5篇投资人访谈组成，他们分别从中国本土与硅谷 视角出发，共同描绘我们走过的2025年，并对2026年做预测与前瞻。 5位嘉宾分别是：（排列依据播客的发布时间顺序） 金沙江创投主管合伙人 朱啸虎 真格基金管理合伙人 戴雨森 Altimeter Capital合伙人 Freda Duan 红杉中国合伙人 郑庆生 一个多月前，在2025年11月初，Sam Altman上了一档由美国基金Altimeter Capital创始人主持的播客节 目，在主持人连续追问OpenAI如何为1.4万亿美元级别算力与基础设施承诺买单时，Sam称："If you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer. Enough."（"如果你想卖掉你的股份，我可以帮你找到买家。 够了。"） 随后，AI板块整体出现波动，关于AI是否存在泡沫的讨论进一步升温。 我们今天的嘉宾Freda Duan就来自这个名叫Altimeter Capital的基金，她担任合伙 ...