Group 1 - The report indicates that in the week from December 15 to December 19, 2025, overseas markets experienced more declines than gains, with slight valuation changes. The Asia-Pacific region saw a broad decline, led by South Korea, while the Eurozone and the UK saw increases. Notably, the Nikkei 225 and the Korean Composite Index fell by 2.61% and 3.52%, respectively, but their P/E ratios expanded by 0.92x and 2.57x, indicating downward revisions in earnings expectations [3][8]. - In the same week, A-shares showed narrow fluctuations with slight valuation expansion. The large-cap value stocks outperformed growth stocks, with large-cap value rising by 1.52% while large-cap growth fell by 1.39%. The report highlights that the valuation distribution is asymmetric, with significant P/E contractions in small-cap growth and the National Index 2000 [3][23]. - The report notes that the downstream consumer sector has a favorable valuation attractiveness. The communication sector has the highest valuation percentiles, with rolling 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year averages of 96.80%, 98.93%, and 99.36%, respectively. Other consumer sectors like social services and beauty care also show relatively high valuation attractiveness [3][26]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the new energy sector experienced a broad decline, with photovoltaic stocks leading the drop at -3.91%. However, sectors such as insurance and military industry performed well, indicating a divergence in sector performance. The report also notes that some industries, like artificial intelligence and new energy, saw significant P/E expansions despite falling stock prices, reflecting downward revisions in profit expectations [3][23]. - The report provides a detailed valuation comparison of various indices, indicating that the core broad-based indices (CSI 300, Shanghai Composite, and Wind All A) are all above the 75th percentile level since 2010. In contrast, other indices are positioned between the median and the 75th percentile [3][28]. - The report concludes that large-cap growth stocks have superior valuation attractiveness, with their P/E, P/B, and P/S ratios showing higher percentile rankings compared to small-cap value stocks, which have lower valuation attractiveness across multiple time frames [3][26].

Core Insights - Nike Inc. is a global leader in athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment, facing competition from brands like Adidas and Under Armour, with a strong presence in North America but challenges in Greater China and Latin America [1] Financial Performance - Nike reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.53 for the quarter ending December 18, 2025, surpassing the estimated $0.37, marking an earnings surprise of 43.24%, although this is a decrease from $0.78 in the same quarter last year [2][6] - The company's revenue for the quarter was $12.43 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.35% and showing a slight increase from $12.35 billion reported in the same period last year [3][6] Profitability and Margins - Despite the positive earnings report, Nike's profit margins have decreased, raising investor concerns about future performance [4] Strategic Positioning - Nike's management described their recovery strategy as being "in the middle innings," indicating ongoing progress in their turnaround plan, with second-quarter sales growth primarily driven by the North American market [4] Financial Metrics - Nike has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 38.43, a price-to-sales ratio of about 2.09, and an enterprise value to sales ratio of around 2.17, indicating investor willingness to pay for earnings [5] - The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.82 and a current ratio of 2.19, demonstrating strong liquidity and a balanced approach to financing its assets [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Currently, the low - supply pattern supports steel prices, but demand is weak, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and policy expectations. Steel prices are expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom under the game between expectations and reality. Attention should be paid to changes in steel mill production [5][38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.15%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coils have weakened, the industrial contradiction has not been alleviated, and the inventory reduction pressure is relatively large, so the price of hot - rolled coils continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. Under the weak reality pattern, hot - rolled coils will continue the weakly oscillating operation trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5][38]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.92%, and both trading volume and open interest expanded. Currently, iron ore demand continues to weaken, while supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and iron ore prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is that the structural contradiction in the spot market remains unresolved. It is expected that iron ore prices will continue the high - level oscillating operation trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **National Economic Situation in November**: The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month. The added value of the mining industry increased by 6.3% year - on - year, the manufacturing industry increased by 4.6%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 4.3%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.7% year - on - year, and the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 8.4%. The manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the business production and operation activity expectation index was 53.1%, up 0.3 percentage points. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide was 5950.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [7]. - **Real Estate Development Investment from January to November**: The national real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The investment in residential buildings was 6043.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%, and the completed area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0% [8]. - **Australia's Anti - dumping Review of Chinese Rebar**: Australia's Anti - Dumping Commission postponed the release of the basic facts report and final - ruling suggestions on the anti - dumping review of steel reinforcing bars imported from Baowu Group Echeng Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. It is expected to complete the basic facts report by December 23, 2025, and submit the final - ruling report to the Australian Minister of Industry and Science by February 16, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products**: The spot price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was 3240 yuan, in Tianjin was 3150 yuan, and the national average price was 3289 yuan. The spot price of hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai was 3250 yuan, in Tianjin was 3170 yuan, and the national average price was 3285 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet (Q235) was 2940 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was 2080 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 10 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1160 yuan [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 772 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 773 yuan, the Australian freight was 10.11 yuan, the Brazilian freight was 22.03 yuan, the SGX swap (current month) was 106.05, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 105.20 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract was 3074 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The highest price was 3086 yuan, the lowest price was 3031 yuan, the trading volume was 1,232,643 lots (an increase of 258,307 lots), and the open interest was 1,627,666 lots (an increase of 20,609 lots) [14]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The closing price of the active contract was 3233 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.15%. The highest price was 3247 yuan, the lowest price was 3194 yuan, the trading volume was 706,855 lots (an increase of 218,669 lots), and the open interest was 1,224,554 lots (an increase of 34,067 lots) [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the active contract was 753.0 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.92%. The highest price was 760.5 yuan, the lowest price was 748.0 yuan, the trading volume was 367,137 lots (an increase of 123,572 lots), and the open interest was 469,396 lots (an increase of 3,908 lots) [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including the inventory of steel mills and social inventory [17][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, and the inventory of domestic mine iron concentrate [22][27]. - **Steel Mill Production**: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss of 75 building materials independent electric arc - furnace steel mills [36][32]. 3.5后市研判 (Translated as Future Outlook) - **Rebar**: Supply and demand continue to weaken. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 10.53 tons, and demand decreased by 13.89 tons. Low - supply supports steel prices, but weak demand still exerts pressure. With low valuation and policy expectations, steel prices will continue to oscillate to find the bottom. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [38]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The supply - demand pattern remains weak. The weekly output decreased by 5.60 tons, and demand is weak. Although the output of cold - rolled products in the main downstream is rising, there are concerns about external demand due to policy disturbances. With high inventory and low valuation, hot - rolled coils will continue the weakly oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern changes little. Ore demand is weak, and supply is at a high level. Although there is a structural contradiction in the spot market, iron ore prices will continue the high - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [39].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that funds are very suitable investment products for ordinary people [2] - It suggests that new investors should consider long-term investment in stock assets, with returns derived from valuation, earnings growth, and dividends [6][7] - The investment strategy involves buying index funds when they are undervalued to maximize potential returns [8] Group 2 - The article highlights the difficulty of investing in index funds due to the slow changes in earnings compared to the rapid fluctuations in valuation [8] - It notes that significant market gains in A-shares occur only about 7% of the time, indicating the importance of timing in investment [8]

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.136, UK 4.476, France 3.523, Germany 2.797, Italy 3.484, Spain 3.259, Switzerland 0.157, Greece 3.391, Japan 1.939, Brazil 6.197, China 1.831, South Korea 3.376, Australia 4.684, New Zealand 4.349 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.561, UK 3.776, Germany 2.093, Japan 1.043, Italy 2.228, China (1Y yield) 1.400, South Korea 2.833, Australia 3.946 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.451, Russia (not provided), South Africa zar 16.934, South Korean won 1472.050, Thailand baht (not provided), Malaysian ringgit 4.111 [3] - The latest exchange rate - related data of the RMB: on - shore RMB 7.071, off - shore RMB 7.069, RMB central parity rate 7.075, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.934 [3] - The latest stock indices of major economies: S&P 500 6870.400, Dow Jones Industrial Average 47954.990, Nasdaq 23578.130, Mexican stock index 63378.300, UK stock index 9667.010, French CAC 8114.740, German DAX 24028.140, Spanish stock index 16688.500, Russian stock index (not provided), Nikkei 50491.870, Hang Seng Index 26085.080, Shanghai Composite Index 3902.808, Taiwan stock index 27980.890, South Korean stock index 4100.050, Indian stock index 8632.761, Thai stock index (not provided), Malaysian stock index 1616.520, Australian stock index 8926.127, emerging - economy stock index 1385.480 [3] - The latest credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3535.540, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.875, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 289.560, US high - yield credit - bond index 2901.450, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 409.330, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1806.999 [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 3902.81, up 0.70%; CSI 300 closing price 4584.54, up 0.84%; SSE 50 closing price 3002.01, up 0.93%; ChiNext closing price 3109.30, up 1.36%; CSI 500 closing price 7097.84, up 1.21% [4] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.02 with a 0.06环比 change; SSE 50 is 11.86 with a 0.04环比 change; CSI 500 is 32.35 with a 0.41环比 change; S&P 500 is 27.33 with a 0.05环比 change; German DAX is 18.61 with a 0.11环比 change [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.48 with a - 0.05环比 change; German DAX is 2.58 with a - 0.05环比 change [4] - Fund flow: The latest value of A - share fund flow is 759.67, the main board is 443.70, the ChiNext is 260.14, and CSI 300 is 197.37. The 5 - day average of A - share fund flow is - 395.38, the main board is - 294.49, the ChiNext is - 74.98, and CSI 300 is 17.56 [4] - Transaction amount: The latest transaction amount of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 17257.71 with a 1768.11环比 change; CSI 300 is 4121.47 with a 633.80环比 change; SSE 50 is 1104.47 with a 218.25环比 change; small - and - medium - sized board is 3269.66 with a 132.41环比 change; ChiNext is 4717.40 with a 600.12环比 change [5] - Main contract basis and spread: IF basis is - 10.14, amplitude - 0.22%; IH basis is - 4.61, amplitude - 0.15%; IC basis is - 14.64, amplitude - 0.21% [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and price changes: T2303 closing price is 108.06, up 0.06%; TF2303 closing price is 105.72, up 0.10%; T2306 closing price is 107.87, up 0.19%; TF2306 closing price is 105.76, up 0.15% [5] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.3719% with a - 12.00 BP daily change; R007 is 1.4963% with a 1.00 BP daily change; SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5800% with a 0.00 BP daily change [5]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Short-term Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on historical data and statistical rules to identify short-term market timing signals, combining macroeconomic, valuation, sentiment, and liquidity indicators to generate a comprehensive timing signal[16][17][19] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Macroeconomic Indicators**: - Manufacturing PMI: If PMI > 50, it gives a positive signal; otherwise, a cautious signal. - Credit Pulse: The YoY growth rate of medium- and long-term RMB loans is used, with a higher percentile indicating a positive signal. - M1 YoY Growth Rate: Filtered using HP filter; higher percentiles indicate a positive signal. 2. **Valuation Indicators**: - PE Median Percentile: A higher percentile indicates a cautious signal due to mean reversion. - PB Median Percentile: A higher percentile also indicates a cautious signal due to mean reversion. 3. **Sentiment Indicators**: - Beta Dispersion: Neutral signal if within a certain range. - Volume Sentiment Score: Lower percentiles indicate a cautious signal. - Volatility: Neutral signal if within a certain range. 4. **Liquidity Indicators**: - Money Market Rate: Lower percentiles indicate a positive signal. - Exchange Rate Expectation: A stronger RMB against the USD gives a positive signal. - 5-day average net financing amount: Lower percentiles indicate a positive signal. 5. Combine all signals to generate a comprehensive timing signal[16][17][19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates significant improvement over the benchmark strategy, with higher annualized returns, lower maximum drawdown, and better Sharpe ratio[18][21] 2. Model Name: Growth-Value Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses a quantitative economic mid-cycle analysis framework, incorporating profitability, interest rate, and credit cycles to determine the relative attractiveness of growth versus value styles[26][27] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Macroeconomic Indicators**: - Profitability Cycle Slope: A steeper slope favors growth. - Interest Rate Cycle Level: Higher levels favor value. - Credit Cycle Strength: A stronger credit cycle favors growth. 2. **Valuation Indicators**: - Growth-Value PE Spread: A higher 5-year percentile indicates a preference for growth. - Growth-Value PB Spread: A higher 5-year percentile also indicates a preference for growth. 3. **Sentiment Indicators**: - Turnover Spread: A higher 5-year percentile indicates a preference for growth. - Volatility Spread: A higher 5-year percentile indicates a balanced preference for both growth and value. 4. Combine all signals to generate a comprehensive style rotation signal[26][27][28] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy has shown significant improvement over the benchmark, with higher annualized returns, lower maximum drawdown, and better Sharpe ratio. However, in 2025, the strategy underperformed the benchmark slightly[27][29] 3. Model Name: Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on 11 effective rotation indicators, including liquidity, sentiment, and valuation metrics, to determine the relative attractiveness of small-cap versus large-cap styles[30] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Indicators Used**: - Indicators such as R007, financing balance changes, trading volume, and sentiment metrics are analyzed. - For each indicator, a signal is generated to favor either small-cap or large-cap styles. 2. **Comprehensive Signal**: - Combine all individual signals into a comprehensive small-cap or large-cap rotation signal. - The model currently favors large-cap due to weak small-cap indicators such as low trading volume and negative sentiment[30][32] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy has consistently generated positive annual excess returns since 2014, with a significant improvement over the benchmark in terms of annualized returns and maximum drawdown[31][32] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Short-term Timing Strategy - Annualized Return: 16.41% - Annualized Volatility: 14.81% - Maximum Drawdown: 14.07% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.9655 - Return-to-Drawdown Ratio: 1.1667 - Monthly Win Rate: 66.24% - Quarterly Win Rate: 60.38% - Annual Win Rate: 78.57%[18][21] 2. Growth-Value Style Rotation Model - Annualized Return: 12.74% - Annualized Volatility: 20.80% - Maximum Drawdown: 43.07% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.5853 - Return-to-Drawdown Ratio: 0.2958 - Monthly Win Rate: 58.33% - Quarterly Win Rate: 59.62%[29] 3. Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model - Annualized Return: 19.73% - Annualized Excess Return: 12.67% - Maximum Drawdown: 40.70% - Average Turnover Interval: 20 trading days - Win Rate (per trade): 49.57%[32]

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest value of the 1-year yield of China's 2-year treasury bond is 1.406 [2] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging economies' currencies are: 5.312 against the Brazilian real, 16.996 against the South African rand, 1473.500 against the South Korean won, 32.040 against the Thai baht, and 4.113 against the Malaysian ringgit [2] - The latest values of the onshore RMB, offshore RMB, RMB central parity rate, and RMB 12-month NDF are 7.072, 7.072, 7.073, and 6.935 respectively [2] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 at 6857.120, Dow Jones Industrial Average at 47850.940, NASDAQ at 23505.140, etc [2] - The latest values of credit bond indices are: US investment-grade credit bond index at 3540.480, eurozone investment-grade credit bond index at 266.108, etc [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - For A-shares, the closing price is 3875.79 with a -0.06% change; for the CSI 300, it's 4546.57 with a 0.34% change; for the SSE 50, it's 2974.34 with a 0.38% change; for the ChiNext, it's 3067.48 with a 1.01% change; for the CSI 500, it's 7012.81 with a 0.24% change [3] - The PE(TTM) values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are 13.96, 11.82, 31.94, 27.28, and 18.52 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.02, 0.02, 0.06, 0.04, and 0.15 [3] - The latest capital flow values for A-shares, the main board, the small and medium-sized enterprise board, the ChiNext, and the CSI 300 are -442.10, -426.62, -, -67.51, and 72.52 respectively, and the 5-day average values are -509.13, -353.73, -, -119.52, and -30.13 [3] - The latest trading volume values for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium-sized board, and ChiNext are 15489.60, 3487.67, 886.22, 3137.25, and 4117.28 respectively, with环比 changes of -1210.02, -257.19, 31.27, -174.24, and -545.69 [4] - The basis and basis spread for IF, IH, and IC are -15.97 (-0.35%), -6.14 (-0.21%), and -29.61 (-0.42%) respectively [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 treasury bond futures are 108.00, 105.62, 107.67, and 105.60 respectively, with changes of -0.22%, -0.14%, -0.34%, and -0.24% [4] - The current capital interest rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR-3M are 1.3611%, 1.4852%, and 1.5800% respectively, with daily changes of -12.00 BP, 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [4]

1. Global Asset Market Performance - Main economies' 10 - year treasury bond yields: US 4.015, UK 4.440, France 3.408, Germany 2.688, Italy 3.398, Spain 3.163, Switzerland 0.149, Greece 3.286, Japan 1.806, Brazil 6.144, China 1.830, South Korea 3.346, Australia 4.515, New Zealand 4.253 [1] - Main economies' 2 - year treasury bond yields: US 3.491, UK 3.736, Germany 2.026, Japan 0.972, Italy 2.175, China (1Y yield) 1.394, South Korea 2.848, Australia 3.807 [1] - USD exchange rates against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.335, Russia (not available), South Africa zar 17.113, South Korean won 1467.300, Thai baht 32.195, Malaysian ringgit 4.133 [1] - RMB exchange rates: On - shore RMB 7.075, Off - shore RMB 7.071, RMB central parity rate 7.079, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.936 [1] - Main economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6849.090, Dow Jones Industrial Average 47716.420, NASDAQ 23365.690, Mexican index 63596.780, UK index 9720.510, France CAC 8122.710, Germany DAX 23836.790, Spanish index 16371.600, Russian index (not available), Nikkei 50253.910, Hang Seng Index 25858.890, Shanghai Composite Index 3888.596, Taiwan index 27626.480, South Korean index 3926.590, Indian index 8508.706, Thai index 1256.690, Malaysian index 1604.470, Australian index 8918.688, Emerging - economy index 1366.920 [1] - Credit bond indices: US investment - grade credit bond index 3552.300, Euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index 266.285, Emerging - economy investment - grade credit bond index 290.250, US high - yield credit bond index 2898.070, Euro - zone high - yield credit bond index 408.890, Emerging - economy high - yield credit bond index 1801.247 [1] 2. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 3888.60, up 0.34%; CSI 300 closing price 4526.66, up 0.25%; SSE 50 closing price 2969.62, down 0.09%; ChiNext closing price 3052.59, up 0.70%; CSI 500 closing price 7031.55, up 1.15% [2] - Valuation: CSI 300 PE(TTM) 13.94, down 0.01; SSE 50 PE(TTM) 11.83, down 0.05; CSI 500 PE(TTM) 32.03, up 0.36; S&P 500 PE(TTM) 27.22, up 0.14; Germany DAX PE(TTM) 18.48, up 0.05 [2] - Risk premium: S&P 500 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate - 0.34, down 0.04; Germany DAX 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate 2.72, down 0.03 [2] - Fund flow: A - share latest value 190.92, 5 - day average - 112.89; Main board latest value 147.52, 5 - day average - 147.45; ChiNext latest value 37.44, 5 - day average 25.57; CSI 300 latest value - 41.10, 5 - day average 0.41 [2] 3. Other Trading Data - Transaction amount: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets latest value 15857.96, down 1239.98; CSI 300 latest value 3418.32, down 759.58; SSE 50 latest value 850.32, down 200.74; SME board latest value 3098.26, down 177.49; ChiNext latest value 4567.21, down 380.14 [3] - Main contract basis: IF basis - 20.86, - 0.46%; IH basis - 6.42, - 0.22%; IC basis - 57.35, - 0.82% [3] - Treasury bond futures: T2303 closing price 108.15, up 0.03%; TF2303 closing price 105.71, up 0.03%; T2306 closing price 107.94, up 0.04%; TF2306 closing price 105.75, down 0.02% [3] - Fund rates: R001 1.4252%, down 9.00 BP; R007 1.5222%, unchanged; SHIBOR - 3M 1.5800%, unchanged [3]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体上涨，截止到收盘，回到4.2星，距离4.3星比较近。 大中小盘股都上涨。 小微盘股上涨多一些。 前几天强势的价值风格略微下跌。 成长风格整体上涨。科创、创业板领涨。 港股略微下跌。 恒生红利等下跌，恒生科技略微上涨。 1. 有朋友问，牛市中后期，有什么信号，代表牛市可能到尾声或者结束呢？ 如果想要精准的卖在牛市最高点，这个很难做到。 2. 不过在牛市中后期，有一些值得关注的、标志性的信号。 （1）一是市场的估值情况。 例如市场整体到了3点几星，那低估品种就没多少了。 像2021年牛市高位的时候，估值表里一个绿色低估的品种都没有。 2015年牛市高点也是如此。 其实每一轮牛市，时间长短、上涨幅度都不一样。 我们也很难预测市场的短期涨跌。 螺丝钉也汇总了关于港股指数的估值，供参考，见文章下方图片。 （2）二是资金面情况。 最近一年多A股港股的上涨，也是受益于资金面的宽松。 美元从2024年9月进入降息周期；咱们的存款、贷款利率也下降。 因为资金面的宽松带来的上涨，也会因为流动性收紧，导致短期下跌。 在5点几星，绿色低估品种一抓一大把。 4点几星，还有一些低估品种 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.71%. In the process of position transfer, the trading volume and open interest contracted. Currently, the fundamentals are fair under the situation of weak supply and demand. Inventory continued to decline, but demand weakened seasonally. The actual situation remains weak, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated with a daily increase of 0.27%. In the process of position transfer, the trading volume and open interest contracted. Currently, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coils remains high, while the demand has weakened. The fundamentals are weak, and the coil price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and cost support. It is expected to continue the trend of bottom - seeking through fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore rebounded after hitting the bottom with a daily decline of 0.19%. The trading volume increased while the open interest decreased. Currently, short - term positive factors have supported the iron ore price to fluctuate higher, but the demand for iron ore has weakened, and the supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to fluctuate at a high level under the game of multiple and short factors. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on November 28, chaired by General Secretary Xi Jinping, to review the comprehensive report on the 20th Central Inspection of provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) [7]. - The Chongqing Municipal Government issued the Action Plan for the Comprehensive Reform Pilot of Factor Market Allocation, proposing to optimize the mechanism for revitalizing existing land, support the use of special bonds to repurchase eligible idle land, and carry out pilot projects for the renewal of industrial and commercial land use rights [8]. - Australian mining company Akora Resources submitted an application to convert the exploration license of its wholly - owned Bekisopa iron ore project in Madagascar into a mining license. The project has an inferred resource of 194.7 million tons and can produce high - grade iron concentrate with an iron content of over 68% [9]. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot price in Shanghai is 3,220, in Tianjin is 3,210, and the national average price is 3,291. The price changes are 10, 10, and 3 respectively [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price in Shanghai is 3,290, in Tianjin is 3,220, and the national average price is 3,317. The price changes are 0, - 10, and - 3 respectively [10]. - Tangshan steel billet: The spot price is 2,970 with a price change of 0 [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The spot price is 2,080 with a price change of 0 [10]. - Other: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 797 with a change of - 2; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate is 808 with a change of 0; the freight from Australia is 11.12 with a change of 0.39, and from Brazil is 24.71 with a change of 0.07; the SGX swap (current month) is 104.90 with a change of 0.00; the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) is 107.45 with a change of 0.10 [10]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract is 3,110 with a daily increase of 0.71%. The highest price is 3,113, the lowest price is 3,084, the trading volume is 680,875 with a decrease of 72,377, and the open interest is 972,278 with a decrease of 97,339 [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract is 3,302 with a daily increase of 0.27%. The highest price is 3,305, the lowest price is 3,285, the trading volume is 314,400 with a decrease of 64,833, and the open interest is 785,392 with a decrease of 90,927 [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract is 794.0 with a daily decrease of 0.19%. The highest price is 798.0, the lowest price is 786.0, the trading volume is 252,881 with an increase of 53,230, and the open interest is 390,978 with a decrease of 23,368 [14]. 后市研判 (Future Outlook) - Rebar: The supply and demand have both weakened. The production of construction steel mills has declined, with the weekly output of rebar decreasing by 1.88 tons. The supply has shrunk slightly, but the profit of short - process steel mills has improved, and the sustainability of production reduction needs to be monitored. At the same time, the demand for rebar has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing slightly. The high - frequency daily trading volume has stabilized, but both remain at the low level in recent years, and the downstream industry is weak. The demand is expected to weaken seasonally, dragging down the steel price. In general, under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals are fair, inventory continues to decline, but the demand weakens seasonally, and the actual situation remains weak. The steel price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [37]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and inventory reduction is limited. The production of plate steel mills has stabilized, with the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increasing by 3.00 tons. The supply has reached a high level, and the inventory level is high, with relatively large pressure. At the same time, the demand for hot - rolled coils has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 4.20 tons, but it is still at a relatively high level. It is worth noting that the contradictions in the downstream cold - rolling industry remain unresolved, and the improvement in external demand is limited, so the demand resilience is likely to weaken. In general, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coils remains high, while the demand has weakened. The fundamentals are weak, and the coil price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the low valuation and cost support. It is expected to continue the trend of bottom - seeking through fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [37]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern continues to be weak. The production of steel mills has declined, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has continued to decline. This week, the average daily hot metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills have decreased again. The profitability of steel mills has not improved, and coupled with production restrictions, the demand for iron ore will continue to weaken, which is likely to drag down the iron ore price. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased significantly. Although the shipments of overseas miners have declined, they are still at a high level this year. The supply of overseas ore is active, and the domestic ore production has stabilized. The iron ore supply remains high. In general, short - term positive factors have supported the iron ore price to fluctuate higher, but the demand for iron ore has weakened, and the supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to fluctuate at a high level under the game of multiple and short factors. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [38].