◎ 记者 黄坤 重新审视传统盈利模式 在低利率背景下，银行、保险机构面临的核心挑战，在于依赖传统业务的盈利路径正在失效，必须主动 求变、探索新路径。 "躺着赚息差的日子一去不复返了。"浙江一家城商行人士告诉上海证券报记者，过去加大信贷资产投放 尚能通过"以量补价"维持营收规模，如今即便资产规模继续增长，利息收入却不升反降，营收承压成普 遍现象。 "新的一年，利差收窄仍是我们面临的最大挑战。"站在2026年初的时间节点上，无论是来自银行、保险 公司，还是资管机构的人士，几乎都表达了相同的感慨——低利率正在重塑资管行业的盈利模式和经营 思路。 低利率带来的是低息差、低收益，利率中枢持续下移的趋势下，银行净息差承压、保险利差损风险加 大，这些相互交织的挑战，正将金融行业推入一个前所未有的压力测试。如何在低利率环境中优化业务 结构、寻找可持续的业绩新增长点，金融从业者正在积极寻求答案。 "做了才有机会" "现在贷款利率这么低，大家都是赔本赚吆喝。"多位银行业人士向上海证券报记者感慨道，银行盈利空 间正被不断挤压，业务打法也随之发生变化，过去是银行"筛选客户"，现在变为"做了才有机会"，只能 把希望放在未来业务合作上， ...

Core Viewpoint - The cyclical commodities industry is at a turning point, with supply constraints and global demand expected to drive price increases significantly by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The global metal futures market has seen a strong start in 2026, with LME copper prices reaching historical highs and LME tin hitting $54,760 per ton, reflecting an over 18% increase year-to-date [1] - The prices of aluminum and copper have also reached new highs, with domestic aluminum futures peaking at ¥250,700 per ton and copper at ¥105,600 per ton [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper, aluminum, and lithium markets are entering a "tight supply" phase, with projected supply-demand gaps for copper, aluminum, and lithium expected to reach 670,000 tons, 990,000 tons, and 120,000 tons respectively by 2026 [2] - The supply of copper is expected to transition from a surplus of 11,000 tons in 2024 to a deficit of 340,000 tons in 2026, influenced by AI demand [2][3] Group 3: Investment Insights - The industrial metal market has been primarily driven by supply-side disruptions over the past three years, with a lack of new large-scale projects contributing to price support [3] - The domestic industrial enterprise inventory cycle is at a bottoming phase, with expectations for replenishment rising, driven by new production capabilities and energy structure transitions [3] Group 4: Global Macro Perspective - The combination of U.S. fiscal expansion and a low-interest-rate environment is expected to lead to a revaluation of major assets globally, with traditional safe-haven assets like gold gaining renewed attention [4] Group 5: AI and Infrastructure Demand - AI is rapidly increasing copper consumption through upgrades to old power grids and new data centers, with significant copper requirements projected for these developments [5][6] - The overall demand for copper, aluminum, and other metals is expected to be supported by traditional infrastructure, new energy vehicles, and energy storage developments [6] Group 6: Price Volatility and Risks - Short-term volatility risks in industrial metals have been highlighted, with predictions of copper prices potentially falling to $11,200 per ton by Q4 2026 [6] - Concerns over potential high tariffs on copper could exacerbate short-term shortages and lead to extreme price fluctuations [7]

证券研究报告 固收专题报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 16 日 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com ——银行理财资产配置专题分析 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com 固收+理财现状、竞争格局与配置策略 固收+理财的核心特征与市场定位。固收+理财以固定收益资产为底层配置，通过叠 加权益资产或策略增厚收益，形成"安全垫+弹性收益"的平衡结构。其本质是通过 股债黄金等相关性低的资产分散风险，在低利率环境下突破纯固收收益率瓶颈，满 足投资者对稳健收益与适度弹性的双重需求。本文讨论的固收+理财指含权资产（含 权基金、股票等）配置比例小于 30%的含权银行理财产品。 固收+理财市场驱动因素。资管新规打破刚兑后，固收+或能成为承接万亿级存量资 金的主力工具，同时养老金融需求持续增加，理财公司积极布局个人养老金产品。 存款利率明显下调与债券收益率下行或使资金转向固收+产品。 1. 市场现状：混合类理财和权益类理财规模持续下降，25Q3 含权理财和 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond issuance by securities firms in the A-share market has surged in 2026, driven by a recovering market and low interest rates, leading to a significant increase in financing activities [2][3][7]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Statistics - In 2026, 23 securities firms have launched 32 bond issues, with a total issuance scale exceeding 76 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 47.46% from 51.6 billion yuan in 2025 [3][6]. - The average frequency of bond issuance is about 2 bonds per day, with the majority of the issuance being corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds [3][5]. - Leading firms in bond issuance include Huatai Securities with 12 billion yuan, followed by CITIC Securities and CITIC Jiantou Securities, each with 8 billion yuan [5]. Group 2: Reasons for Bond Issuance - The bond issuance trend is primarily driven by the need for funds to support business expansion and optimize financial structures, with many firms indicating that raised funds will be used for repaying maturing debts and supplementing operational capital [7][8]. - The continuous recovery of the A-share market has increased investor demand for leveraged trading, pushing the margin financing and securities lending balance to a historical high of 2.6982 trillion yuan [7]. - The low interest rate environment has provided a cost advantage for bond issuance, with nearly 90% of the bonds issued in 2026 having coupon rates below 2%, making them more attractive compared to bank loans [8].

(ID中信保诚基金了! 中信保诚稳悦债券A TOP5 (5/1002) - 告 mmun E 指导 中信保诚基金 2025Q4 成绩单 固定收益篇 探寻稳进更优解 2025年,固收市场在"股债晓晓板"效应、政策预期与宏 观经济叙事的多重博弈中,步入了高波动的震荡格局。 同类基金 长期纯债债券型基金(A类) 中信保诚稳泰债券A 前15% (79/555) 同类基金 长期纯债债券型基金(A类) 中信保诚稳健债券A 前20% (59/300) 长期纯债债券型基金(A类) 004102 ill 经信 004108 003226 投资者对"低利率"环境的感受尤为深刻,固收+基金优势 出显。 复杂的市场情况,是基金公司投研能力的"试金石"。 在此背景下,中信保诚基金持续为投资者筑牢资产配置 的底仓,多种策略债基均取得亮眼回报。 利率指数 中信保诚中债0-2年政策性金融债指数A 020165 前8% (12/164) 近一年 利率债指数债券型基金(A类) 同类基金 推会成本法 同类基金 长期纯债债券型基金(A类) 中信保诚景丰债券A 前17% (162/1002) 中信保诚嘉润66个月定期开放债券 010462 前20% ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment landscape is shifting towards a new era characterized by low interest rates, increased market volatility, and the need for a robust asset system to meet long-term financial goals, making Fund of Funds (FOF) a compelling option for investors [1][36]. Group 1: Overabundance of Choices - The number of public funds in the market is projected to exceed 13,000 by the end of 2025, significantly outnumbering A-share listed companies, creating a challenging environment for ordinary investors [1]. - Understanding a fund requires deep analysis of its holdings, strategies, and fund manager movements, which is akin to a full-time job [2]. Group 2: Risk Diversification - FOFs provide dual-layer risk diversification by holding multiple funds that invest in various securities, thus mitigating individual asset risks [10]. - FOFs also diversify strategies and styles, creating a complementary ecosystem that can adapt to changing market conditions, thereby controlling volatility and drawdowns more effectively [11][13]. Group 3: Dynamic Asset Allocation - FOFs act as an automatic driving system for investment portfolios, adjusting asset allocations based on macroeconomic cycles, policy environments, and market valuations [20][24]. - The increasing allocation of public FOFs to QDII, alternative investments, and REITs exemplifies this dynamic asset allocation approach [24]. Group 4: Retirement Planning - By 2026, the personal pension system will be in its third year, emphasizing the importance of long-term wealth accumulation to combat inflation and ensure quality retirement living [27][28]. - Retirement FOFs, particularly those utilizing personal pension accounts, are tailored for this scenario, offering target date funds (TDF) and target risk funds (TRF) that adjust asset allocations over time [30][32]. Group 5: Balancing Stability and Growth - In a low-interest environment, relying solely on fixed-income assets is insufficient for wealth preservation and growth, necessitating a shift towards equity assets [36]. - FOFs offer a middle ground for investors, with options like bond-focused FOFs for conservative investors and balanced or equity-focused FOFs for those willing to take on more risk [38].

与此同时，欧洲地缘安全议题同样引发市场关注。英国和德国正讨论在格陵兰地区加强军事存在，以显 示其对北极安全问题的重视。 摘要周一（1月12日）亚市早盘，贵金属价格飙升，黄金与白银携手刷新历史纪录，现货黄金首次站上 4600美元大关，新年首月累涨280美元，现货白银超越前两周高点创下历史新高，日内涨幅一度接近 5%，距离84美元关口仅一步之遥。 周一（1月12日）亚市早盘，贵金属价格飙升，黄金与白银携手刷新历史纪录，非农疲软、伊朗局势升 温、美联储主席遭司法威胁、美元走软等多重因素共振，推动避险资产疯狂上涨。 现货黄金高开高走，现货黄金首次站上4600美元大关，新年首月累涨280美元，现货白银超越前两周高 点创下历史新高，日内涨幅一度接近5%，距离84美元关口仅一步之遥。现货铂金涨超3.00%，触及2382 美元高位，现货钯金日内涨超4.00%，现报1891.70美元/盎司。 近期美伊紧张关系骤然升级，对全球市场构成冲击。一方面，伊朗国内因经济危机爆发大规模抗议，局 势动荡；另一方面，美国总统特朗普公开威胁可能采取军事等方式进行干预，以支持抗议者。 1月11日据知情官员透露，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已对 ...

- The report focuses on the "Fixed Income+" (固收+) product, which aims to achieve absolute returns higher than pure fixed-income products, with risk-return characteristics between bond and equity products. The specific scope includes mixed bond funds with average convertible bond positions not exceeding 80% over the past eight quarters and equity positions (stocks + 0.5×convertible bonds) not exceeding 40% on average, with a maximum equity position of 60%[18] - The classification of "Fixed Income+" funds is based on long-term equity risk exposure, dividing them into three categories: conservative, balanced, and aggressive. The classification thresholds are set at 15% and 25% for average equity positions over the past eight quarters[21][20] - The report highlights the growth in "Fixed Income+" fund scale, with a total increase of 7700.41 billion yuan (63.50%) from the end of 2024 to Q3 2025. Among the categories, conservative funds grew by 3695.98 billion yuan, balanced funds by 2101.94 billion yuan, and aggressive funds nearly doubled with an increase of 1902.49 billion yuan[18][21] - The performance of "Fixed Income+" funds from 2020 to 2025 demonstrates strong stability and cross-cycle return capabilities. Even aggressive funds show significantly lower drawdowns compared to equity and convertible bond products. The products exhibit strong return elasticity during equity market uptrends and resilience during downturns[31][35] - The leverage ratio of "Fixed Income+" funds has been declining, from 1.24 at the end of 2023 to 1.10 by Q3 2025. Conservative funds generally maintain higher leverage, while aggressive funds rely more on equity asset elasticity for returns[57][60] - The duration of "Fixed Income+" funds has increased from 1.92 years in 2024 to 3.04 years by Q3 2025, reflecting a strategy to extend duration for bond yield enhancement amid declining bond yields[61][63]

Core Viewpoint - In a low interest rate environment, high-quality fixed income plus products are becoming increasingly sought after [1] Fund Performance - The fund has a performance benchmark of 90% of the China Bond Composite Index and 10% of the CSI 300 Index, achieving a net value growth of 41.6% since inception, significantly outperforming the 22.9% yield of the China Government Bond Index during the same period [4] - The annualized return of the fund since inception is 6.8%, with a maximum drawdown kept under 5% during a pessimistic market in September 2024, indicating a comfortable holding experience for investors [5] Fund Management - The fund, named Invesco Great Wall Jingyi Zhaoli 6-Month Holding Period Bond Fund, has a combined scale of 4.49 billion, managed by experienced professionals including Dong Han, Li Yiwen, and Zou Lihua [7] - Li Yiwen, one of the managers, has a master's degree from the University of Chicago and has extensive experience in asset management, having worked with the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and China Construction Bank [7] Asset Allocation - The fund is classified as a secondary bond fund, maintaining a stock asset proportion of 10%-20% over the past three years, thus can be viewed as a fixed income plus fund [10] - As of Q3 2025, the fund's allocation includes 51.3% in financial bonds, 20% in corporate bonds, and approximately 14% in medium-term notes and convertible bonds, with a focus on AAA-rated convertible bonds and state-owned bank secondary capital bonds [13] Equity Investments - The fund has a strong preference for non-ferrous metals, increasing its allocation to 61.09% by Q2 2025, while also favoring sectors like transportation, coal, and steel, focusing on resource stocks with dividend potential [15] - The top ten holdings include five stocks from the non-ferrous metals sector, with notable performers like Zijin Mining and Western Mining, the latter having increased by over 76% within the year [17] Overall Returns - The fund achieved a return of 11.6% in the current year, significantly outperforming the 1.05% increase in the China Government Bond Index, providing investors with unexpected returns despite a weak bond market [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that dividend insurance is transitioning to become a key focus in the life insurance industry, driven by regulatory encouragement and market demand in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2][12]. - Dividend insurance is characterized as a floating income product that combines protection and investment attributes, with dividends derived from positive surpluses generated by interest rate differences, mortality differences, and expense differences, with at least 70% of these surpluses distributed to policyholders [1][2][21]. - The development of dividend insurance in mainland China has experienced several phases, including a peak in the early 2010s when it accounted for 75% of industry premiums, followed by a decline from 2013 to 2023 due to market reforms, and a resurgence since 2024 as regulatory policies have favored floating income products [1][2][8][12]. Group 2 - The current transformation of dividend insurance has shown significant results, with over 50% of new policies in the first half of 2025 being dividend insurance, and China Pacific Insurance exceeding 90% [2][12]. - The core logic behind this transformation is that dividend insurance has lower rigid costs, stronger stability under new accounting standards, and shorter effective liability durations, which can effectively alleviate interest rate loss pressures [2][12]. - The expected increase in the proportion of dividend insurance in new policies will enhance the reliability of life insurance embedded value (EV) and gradually increase the proportion of equity allocation in insurance funds, benefiting from long-term stock market returns [2][12]. Group 3 - In overseas markets, floating income products dominate, particularly in mature markets like Europe and the U.S., where the focus has shifted towards universal and investment-linked insurance, while in Hong Kong, dividend insurance remains a core product with significant market share [2][12][4]. - The experience from overseas markets suggests that in a low-interest-rate environment, there are substantial growth opportunities for floating income products, and dividend insurance is seen as a more suitable solution for domestic investors in China [2][12]. - The industry faces challenges such as long-term interest rate declines, equity market volatility, and pressure on new policy premiums, but the shift towards dividend insurance is expected to reshape the liability structure of the industry and promote high-quality development [2][12].