一、前利率走势的理论研判 近年来，我国利率下行趋势明显。种种迹象表明，我国利率正处于长期下行通道，形成持续期较长的低 利率环境。对于我国利率下行问题，究竟该如何判断？银行又将面临哪些机遇和挑战？笔者结合马克思 利率理论，参考日本的案例，试图给出一些理性回答，以供业界参考。 马克思研究揭示，利息是贷出资本的资本家从接入资本的资本家那里分割出来的一部分剩余价值，而利 润是剩余价值的转化形式。利息只是利润的一部分，其最高限额是利润本身，其最低限额在零之上却全 然不能限定。利率则是利息与相应资本的比例，其高低第一取决于利润率，第二取决于总利润在贷者与 借者之间的分割比例，而这个比例往往由市场竞争决定。 马克思的研究深刻表明，实体经济的理论率是利率的根本性决定因素，在此基础上则受资金供给的丰裕 程度影响。实体经济的平均利润率高，则利率整体水平往往较高，反之则反是。即，经济繁荣阶段，实 体经济平均利润水平较高，投资机会较多，贷方对资金的需求旺盛，竞争的天平向着资金供给方倾斜， 因此利率水平往往走高。在经济下行压力较大的阶段，实体经济的平均利润水平较低，投资机会较少， 贷方对资金的有效需求不足，竞争的天平则向着资金需求方倾 ...

Group 1 - The recent news about the Zhejiang Jin Center product failure highlights the liquidity issues faced by the financing entities behind these products, which are currently unable to meet redemption demands [1] - Investors should have a rational understanding of the current risk-free interest rate environment, as exemplified by the near-zero annualized yield of Yu'ebao [2] - For pure debt financial products, expectations should be adjusted accordingly, with money market funds likely yielding below 1.5% and pure debt funds around 2.5% after fees [3][4] Group 2 - In the unprecedented low interest rate environment, investors should establish a benchmark for expected returns; anything significantly above this benchmark may indicate higher risk [5] - It is crucial to control concentration in investments to avoid significant losses, emphasizing the importance of diversification [6][8] - The analogy of lending money to a friend versus investing in high-yield products illustrates the need for cautious investment practices, particularly in high-risk products [7] Group 3 - The importance of having a professional and trustworthy investment advisor is emphasized, as many products advertised with high returns may not be sustainable [9][10] - Investors should be wary of advisors who promote high-yield products without understanding the underlying risks, as this could limit potential returns [11] - Institutional investors face similar challenges as individual investors, particularly in a low interest rate environment, which necessitates careful asset allocation [12][13] Group 4 - The current market conditions show a decline in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with the latter experiencing a more significant drop [16][17] - Factors affecting the market include the rebalancing of funds between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, as well as rising yields on Japanese and U.S. bonds impacting valuations [18][19] - Long-term concerns for the market include the sustainability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle, the persistence of low domestic interest rates, and the profitability of major technology companies in Hong Kong [23][24]

"20万元存3年，赚了2万多利息，现在想续存却找不到同款产品了。"西安的李先生告诉经济观察报记 者。 2025年12月6日，他所购买的3年期大额存单要到期了。曾经3.35%的年利率，如今却成了难以复刻的高 息记忆。 同样面临着资金安放困扰的，还有烟台的郭女士。作为曾经的"存款特种兵"，她曾为抢高息大额存单开 车跨市开户。今年10月，部分资金到期后，她发现此前的跨省找高息存款的思路已然行不通，转而将到 期资金购买黄金。 近日，郭女士有50万元定存资金到期，她再次陷入纠结。12月4日，记者查询六大行手机银行显示，发 现在售的产品中，5年期大额存单已不见踪影。"现在大额存单利率很低，国有大行3年期利率是 1.55%，中小银行最高的也就2%左右，还得抢额度、绑开户条件。"郭女士说。 她翻看手机里的存款交流群，发现曾经热闹的"存款特种兵"们如今大多沉默，偶尔有人分享产品，也多 是利率2%左右的小银行定存。 国有大行集体"弃长" 2022年12月6日，经客户经理介绍，李先生在昆仑银行购入20万元3年期大额存单时，年利率达3.35%， 到期后能拿到利息20397.78元。 随着大额存单到期日的临近，李先生每天都会翻看四五家 ...

Core Insights - FOF (Fund of Funds) is experiencing significant growth, with a total management scale of 186.99 billion yuan and an average net value growth rate of 12.58% in 2025, indicating strong performance and investor interest [1][2][3] Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of December 8, 2025, the average net value growth rate for FOFs over the past three years is 8.79%, with 121 products achieving over 10% growth in the current year, showcasing their long-term stable return characteristics [2] - Three notable FOFs, including Qianhai Kaiyuan Yuyuan and Guangda Baodexin Yangguang, have net values exceeding 2 yuan, with annual growth rates of 38.13%, 17.01%, and 8.18% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A total of 74 new FOFs were established in 2025, with issuance reaching 77.61 billion units, marking a four-year high, driven by a low-interest-rate environment and a shift in investor preference towards diversified asset allocation [3] - The issuance of FOFs is supported by policy initiatives and the introduction of personal pension systems, which encourage long-term capital inflow into the market [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - High-performing FOFs are adopting a refined selection strategy, focusing on industry themes and commodity funds rather than broad market indices, indicating a precise grasp of industry trends [4] - The FOF market has evolved from a scale of less than 10 billion yuan to 186.99 billion yuan, with a diverse range of product strategies including mixed, bond, and thematic funds, catering to various investor needs [4]

"存款群中，越来越多人开始讨论黄金和股票了。"郭女士说， 曾经的"存款特种兵"们，有人跟风买黄金，有人尝试债券基 金，还有人选择分散存到多家中小银行。 作者：刘颖 封图：图虫创意 "20万元存3年，赚了2万多利息，现在想续存却找不到同款产品了。"西安的李先生告诉经济观察 报记者。 2025年12月6日，他所购买的3年期大额存单要到期了。曾经3.35%的年利率，如今却成了难以 复刻的高息记忆。 同样面临着资金安放困扰的，还有烟台的郭女士。作为曾经的"存款特种兵"，她曾为抢高息大额 存单开车跨市开户。今年10月，部分资金到期后，她发现此前的跨省找高息存款的思路已然行不 通，转而将到期资金购买黄金。 近日，郭女士有50万元定存资金到期，她再次陷入纠结。12月4日，记者查询六大行手机银行显 示，发现在售的产品中，5年期大额存单已不见踪影。"现在大额存单利率很低，国有大行3年期利 率是1.55%，中小银行最高的也就2%左右，还得抢额度、绑开户条件。"郭女士说。 她翻看手机里的存款交流群，发现曾经热闹的"存款特种兵"们如今大多沉默，偶尔有人分享产 品，也多是利率2%左右的小银行定存。 国有大行集体"弃长" 2022年12 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current low interest rate environment has led to a significant reduction in the availability and attractiveness of large time deposits, with many banks discontinuing long-term products, prompting depositors to seek alternative investment options [1][3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - The interest rate for large time deposits has decreased significantly, with major banks offering rates as low as 1.55% for 3-year deposits, compared to previous rates above 3% [2][3]. - Many banks, including state-owned and joint-stock banks, have stopped issuing long-term large time deposits, with 5-year products no longer available [3][4]. - The interest rates for traditional fixed deposits are now comparable to those of large time deposits, diminishing their competitive edge [3][4]. Group 2: Depositor Behavior - Depositors are increasingly turning to alternative investments such as gold and bank wealth management products due to the low returns on traditional deposits [1][9]. - There is a noticeable shift among depositors, with some opting for riskier investments while others remain conservative, preferring to keep their funds in banks despite lower interest rates [9][10]. - Social media and deposit communities have become platforms for sharing information about available products, with many depositors actively seeking higher yields [7][8]. Group 3: Bank Strategies - Banks are adopting proactive liability management strategies in response to the low interest rate environment, leading to a reduction in the issuance of long-term large time deposits [5][6]. - Some smaller banks are leveraging marketing strategies to attract depositors by offering competitive rates and promotional incentives [8]. - The trend of discontinuing long-term large time deposits reflects broader market conditions and the need for banks to manage their interest rate risk effectively [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the market outlook for 2026, emphasizing a potential for lower interest rates due to a softer labor market, which could positively impact stock market performance [2][3][4]. Market Outlook - Michael Kantrowitz, Chief Investment Strategist at Piper Sandler, believes the stock market is set for a strong performance heading into 2026, with a focus on historical context to understand current market dynamics [2]. - The current labor market conditions are seen as a new concern, but they may lead to lower interest rates, which historically correlate with improved stock market performance [3]. Interest Rates and Market Dynamics - Higher interest rates have been a barrier to market broadening, but a shift to lower rates could benefit underperforming sectors such as manufacturing, transportation, and housing in 2026 [4]. Investment Opportunities - The article lists 12 cheap NASDAQ stocks to consider for investment, identified through a methodology that includes screening for stocks with a forward price-to-earnings ratio below 15 and cross-referencing hedge fund interest [7][8]. Company Highlights - **Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY)**: - Forward P/E Ratio: 10.7, with 32 hedge fund holders. Recently completed the acquisition of Vicebio, enhancing its vaccine development capabilities [9][10][11]. - Received EU approval for Dupilumab, a treatment for chronic spontaneous urticaria, expanding its market potential significantly [12][13]. - **Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM)**: - Forward P/E Ratio: 11.01, with 37 hedge fund holders. Reported a 17.64% year-over-year revenue growth to $2.58 billion in fiscal Q3 2025, exceeding estimates [14][16]. - Strong performance driven by cross-border travel, with international bookings increasing by 60% year-over-year and inbound travel bookings more than doubling [16][17].

岁末年初，港股市场或迎来多路增量资金：一方面，据CME FedWatch数据显示，市场预期美联储12月 降息概率已升至约87%，或有利于外资增配对利率具有较高敏感性的港股资产；另一方面，监管层近期 下调了保险资金投资股票的风险因子，叠加年初"开门红"保费收入预期，险资入市动力有望增强。在此 背景下，盈利确定性较高的港股红利类资产，配置价值有望进一步凸显。（信息来源：25/12/7-证券时 报《降息概率87%！美联储，重磅来袭！》；政策来源：25/12/5-国家金融监督管理总局《关于调整保 险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》） 资金流向显示，市场对港股红利类资产的配置意愿增强。自2025年10月28日以来，港股通红利ETF （513530）已连续29个交易日实现资金净流入，其中仅12月以来的5个交易日累计吸金3.88亿元；期间 日均成交额达1.66亿元，高于今年前11个月（25/1/1-25/11/28）0.79亿元的日均水平。伴随资金的持续流 入，产品最新基金规模、基金份额达32.34亿元、18.83亿份，双双攀升至成立以来（22/4/8）新高，反 映出市场对港股红利类资产的配置热情持续升温。（数据来源：交易所、 ...

原标题：杂谈丨大额存单消失记：人身险开门红获最大助攻？ 来源：今日保 年底，门红期间，金融市场再传停售。 不过，这次停售的，终于不是保险产品了。 据多家媒体报道，六大国有行的手机App上，5年期大额存单已难觅踪影，部分大行甚至将3年期定存的 起售门槛从20万大幅拉升至100万元，而即便如此，给出的最高收益率也不过区区1.55%。 当然了，尽管大额存单中也有不少法人投资者，但无疑，5年期大额存单的退场及3年期门槛的大幅提 升，会将不少个人投资者挡在门外。 零碎的公开信息显示，2023年一季度，金融机构发行大额存单2.1万期，发行总量为5.5万亿元。截至 2023年9月末，大额存单余额23.5万亿元。 尽管2024年以来未见详细的信息报道，但规模绝不小。 由此溢出的庞大资金，必会寻求新的去向。 这一变化，对于正处于2026年"开门红"备战焦灼期的人身险行业而言，无疑是一次神助攻，而银保渠 道，或将再次证明自己，比个险更强更有价值。毕竟今年8月的那场战役，消耗了太多的资源和精力， 以至于9月如银保等渠道甚至出现停车的态势。 当然了，银行不卖5年期大额存单，盖因5年内，利率水平或许又将出现一个明显的下降。相当于提前给 ...

Core Viewpoint - As the year-end approaches, the market is becoming cautious, leading to a resurgence in high-dividend assets, with funds shifting towards these investments [1] Group 1: Market Trends - On December 4, the CSI Dividend ETF (515080) saw a net inflow of 37.94 million yuan, while the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550) attracted 30.04 million yuan, marking its 11th consecutive day of inflows, totaling nearly 100 million yuan [1] - Institutional investors are typically shifting towards defensive, stable dividend assets to lock in annual returns, indicating a growing preference for these investments [1] - Historical data shows that the CSI Dividend Total Return Index has an 80% probability of closing positive in November and a 50% probability in December since 2015, demonstrating a seasonal "calendar effect" [1][2] Group 2: Long-term Investment Value - Despite underperforming mainstream indices over the past year, dividend assets have shown strong resilience in the long term, outperforming the 300 and 50 indices over three and ten years [4] - The annualized return of dividend assets over the past five years has been 10%, primarily driven by shareholder returns, with price contributions at only 4% [5] Group 3: Dividend Yield and Economic Environment - The current low interest rate environment in China has led to a decline in long-term rates, with the latest 10-year government bond yield at 1.87%, while the CSI Dividend Index has a yield of 4.87% and the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility Index at 6.61% [7][8] - The attractiveness of dividend indices, with yields between 4% and 7%, is heightened by the decreasing risk-free return from government bonds [8] Group 4: Index Adjustments and Composition - Dividend indices typically undergo semi-annual or annual rebalancing to maintain their vitality, with the recent adjustments including the addition of strong sectors like metals and banking while removing weaker sectors like steel and real estate [9][10] - The average dividend yield of newly included stocks is expected to be 4.15%, compared to 3.89% for those being removed, indicating an enhancement in investment value [10] Group 5: Dividend Growth Trends - The trend of regular dividends has become established in A-shares since the implementation of the "New National Nine" policies, with the CSI Dividend Index constituents projected to distribute over 92 billion yuan in dividends in 2024, marking a historical high [12][13] - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility Index has also shown a consistent increase in total dividends, exceeding 100 billion yuan for three consecutive years [14]