Core Viewpoint - China Ping An Insurance (Group) Co., Ltd. has increased its holdings in Postal Savings Bank of China by 6.416 million H-shares, reflecting a trend of insurance capital frequently increasing their stakes in bank H-shares this year [1] Group 1: Investment Activity - China Ping An and its subsidiaries have shown a pattern of continuous accumulation in bank H-shares, particularly in listed banks such as China Merchants Bank, Postal Savings Bank, and Agricultural Bank [1] - The insurance capital's preference for bank stocks is attributed to the generally high dividend yields in both A-shares and H-shares, with the China Securities Bank ETF yielding 4.07% and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Financial ETF yielding 5.06% as of October 16 [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The current low interest rate environment enhances the attractiveness of these assets, leading to sustained inflows from long-term funds such as insurance capital and social security [1] - A shift in market sentiment towards risk aversion has made these assets more appealing, indicating a potential strategy for similar investors to follow the lead of insurance capital [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how both technology and dividend assets benefit from a low interest rate environment, despite appearing to be conflicting asset classes [4][18]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Chen Bo employs a "barbell strategy" combining both dividend and technology assets to provide a more adaptable product mix for investors [4][19]. - The investment framework emphasizes three key concepts: "small and beautiful" alpha, high ROE as a standard for excellent companies, and "high cut low" for dynamic portfolio adjustments [5][14]. - The strategy has shown strong performance during market fluctuations in 2023 and 2024, demonstrating the effectiveness of this approach [4][16]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Chen Bo's investment philosophy is influenced by notable figures such as Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and Charlie Munger, focusing on finding small-cap growth stocks with potential for significant returns [6][12]. - High ROE is considered a critical indicator of a company's long-term profitability and competitive advantage, with a benchmark of 15% ROE being highlighted [21][22]. - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting to macroeconomic conditions, distinguishing between bull and bear market strategies [15][31]. Group 3: Market Insights - The current low interest rate environment is expected to favor both growth and dividend-paying stocks, with a shift in focus from traditional assets to those that can provide better returns [19][20]. - The article notes that as the economy transitions, the focus should be on identifying new growth sources within the market, regardless of whether the assets are classified as dividend or technology [28][29]. - Chen Bo predicts a systemic revaluation of Chinese risk assets, suggesting that various styles of stocks will perform well in a true bull market [31].

Core Viewpoint - The prediction made by Jack Ma seven years ago about housing prices becoming as cheap as scallions is increasingly becoming a reality due to significant changes in the real estate market and economic environment [1][3]. Real Estate Market Trends - Since 2022, the domestic real estate market has entered a deep adjustment phase, with average national housing prices expected to drop over 30% from peak levels by 2025 [3]. - In some third and fourth-tier cities, housing prices have fallen to 3,000-4,000 yuan per square meter, entering the "scallion price" range [3]. - The liquidity of real estate has significantly decreased, making it difficult for investors to sell properties even at reduced prices [4]. Investment Challenges - In 2023, the number of second-hand homes listed for sale exceeded 5 million, reaching a historical high [5]. - The debt default scale of real estate companies reached 200 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, accelerating industry reshuffling [5]. - The long-term decline in bank interest rates has created a dilemma for depositors, as the one-year fixed deposit rate has dropped from 2.5% in 2018 to a historical low of 1.8% [7]. Financial Market Conditions - The yield on bank wealth management products has fallen below 3%, and the transition to net value has eliminated the guarantee of principal [8]. - In 2024, the average loss for A-share investors was 140,000 yuan, while public funds experienced losses of 20%-30% [8]. - The number of private fund liquidations increased by 60% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a significant decline in industry confidence [8]. Entrepreneurial Environment - The entrepreneurial landscape has become increasingly challenging, with 90% of new entrepreneurs failing [10]. - High competition and rising costs in low-barrier industries like retail and dining are major factors contributing to this trend [10]. - In a second-tier city, only 3 out of 20 new restaurants survived after one year, highlighting the difficulties faced by new businesses [11]. Recommendations for Depositors - Depositors are advised to lower their investment expectations and accept annual returns of 3%-4% while diversifying their asset allocation [11]. - It is recommended to prioritize investments in low-risk products such as government bonds and money market funds, and to avoid concentrating funds in a single bank [11]. - Caution is advised for those considering entrepreneurship, with a focus on light-asset, high-barrier industries and maintaining at least 12 months of operational funds [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's monetary policy has been moderately loose in response to a complex macroeconomic environment, leading to a sustained low interest rate environment. State-owned large commercial banks must focus on serving the real economy and create greater value in the context of high-quality economic development [2][4]. Group 1: Interest Margin Analysis - The net interest margin (NIM) of state-owned large commercial banks has been narrowing significantly due to the continuous decline in market interest rates. From the end of 2018 to the end of 2024, the average NIM of the four major banks is projected to decrease from 2.18% to 1.52%, a drop of 0.66% [6]. - The average loan yield for the four major banks has decreased from 4.34% in 2018 to 3.55% in 2024, a decline of 0.79%. Similarly, the average investment yield has fallen from 3.59% to 3.09%, a reduction of 0.5% [7][8]. Group 2: Cost of Interest-Bearing Liabilities - The average deposit interest rate for the four major banks increased from 1.47% in 2018 to 1.76% in 2024, raising the cost of interest-bearing liabilities by 0.29%. The proportion of deposits in interest-bearing liabilities has decreased from 83.79% to 78.64% during the same period [9]. - The net interest income has shown negative growth as the effect of expanding asset scale to offset the narrowing NIM has diminished. Starting from 2023, the positive scale effect can no longer compensate for the negative rate effect, leading to a decline in net interest income for some banks [10]. Group 3: Future Interest Rate Trends - The article suggests that the low interest rate environment in China may persist for a considerable time due to various internal and external factors, including economic slowdown and structural issues such as technological stagnation and the fading demographic dividend [12]. - Internationally, major developed economies have entered a rate-cutting cycle, with central banks like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank reducing rates in response to easing inflation pressures and slowing employment growth [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - With the decline of the interest rate center, China's money market fund (MMF) yields have entered the "1%" era. Given the current weak fundamentals, MMF yields may continue to adjust, and a full "break below 1%" is just a matter of time. However, MMFs are important liquidity management tools for both households and institutions. The expansion space of China's MMFs remains large [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. MMF Yields Breaking Below 1% is Inevitable in a Low-Interest Rate Environment - MMF yields have been continuously declining and entered the 1% range this year. In September 2025, the monthly average yield of MMFs was about 1.15%, a decrease of 0.17bp compared to June. The 25% quantile of the 7-day annualized yield of MMFs also dropped to 1.04%. All MMF yields have been below 2% since this year, and the yield range with the highest proportion of MMF numbers has shifted left for two consecutive quarters, reaching 1.0% - 1.2% at the end of the second quarter [9]. - Deposits, certificates of deposit (CDs), and funds lending are the basic allocation of MMFs, driving the continuous decline of MMF yields. In the second quarter of 2025, the allocation proportion of MMFs to interbank certificates of deposit, bank deposits, and repurchase agreements reached 91.6%. Against the backdrop of the central bank's continuous loose monetary policy, the decline of the broad - spectrum interest rate center has led to a synchronous decline in MMF yields [11]. - Considering the need to support the fundamentals, cooperate with fiscal policies, and resolve bank risks, the broad - spectrum interest rate is likely to continue to decline, and it is only a matter of time before MMF yields "break below 1%" on a large scale [15]. 2. MMFs are Important Liquidity Management Tools for Households and Institutions 2.1 Household Sector: Deposit Outflow and the Re - balance between "Yield and Liquidity" - The phenomenon of financial disintermediation may deepen under low - interest rates, and MMFs are one of the main channels for household deposit transfer. In Japan's low - interest - rate era, household time deposits were largely converted into demand deposits, and deposits remained within the bank balance sheet. In China, there has been an acceleration of financial disintermediation, with household deposits flowing out of the balance sheet and into fixed - income - like product investments. From July to August this year, non - bank deposits increased significantly while household deposits increased less, mainly due to the rising preference for wealth management and other investments among households [17][18]. - Households' preference for liquidity and stable returns will also benefit MMFs. After the epidemic, households first valued stable returns. From 2024, their preference gradually shifted to "balancing yield and liquidity". Compared with wealth management products, MMFs have the advantage of the amortized cost method, with less volatility, smoother returns, and more flexible and diverse promotion channels [25][26]. 2.2 Institutional Sector: Cash Management Tools for Institutional Investors - For institutional investors, MMFs have high flexibility and resilience in a low - interest - rate environment. In the short term, MMF yields may face some pressure. In the long run, if the funds rate continues to decline, the flexibility advantage of MMFs in underlying asset allocation will be evident [34]. - Compared with short - term bond funds, MMFs have more prominent advantages. Short - term bond funds face the dual pressures of low interest rates and high volatility. The implementation of the new fund sales regulations will also impact short - term bond funds, and the cost advantage of MMFs will be more obvious, leading to a potential diversion of funds from short - term bond funds to MMFs [35]. 3. MMFs Will Not Disappear in China 3.1 How are MMFs in Overseas Markets? - Different economies have different development paths for MMFs in a low - interest - rate environment. Japan's MMFs have almost disappeared because of extremely low interest rates and the freedom for funds to go overseas. In the US and Europe, MMFs show strong resilience. In the US, MMFs are still important cash management tools, with a relatively strong economic base, strong ability to absorb global funds, and more diversified product types. In the eurozone, MMF yields were higher than the funds rate during the negative - interest - rate period [41][42]. 3.2 What are the Differences in China's MMFs? - China's MMFs may develop more like those in the US and still have development potential and space in the medium and long term. Under the central bank's "interest rate corridor + macro - prudential" adjustment model, China's short - term interest rates are unlikely to fall into the extreme negative range like in Europe and Japan. The asymmetry in the "convenience of funds going overseas" also means that due to relatively strict capital account management in China, the demand for liquidity management remains, and MMFs still have value. The resonance of channels and regulatory orientation makes MMFs beneficiaries of policies. The deep binding of online payment scenarios and the construction of an ecological closed - loop by platforms have significantly enhanced the competitive advantage of MMFs [48][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign trade shows resilience with steady growth in imports and exports in the first three quarters of 2025, and the growth rate accelerates quarter - by - quarter [19] - Gold prices reach new highs, and institutions predict further price increases in the future [5][6] - The U.S. economic growth forecast is raised, but employment growth is expected to remain weak [3] - The price of refined oil is reduced, and the probability of the next adjustment being downward is high [11] - The price of live - hog futures hits a record low, and the pork market is in a "peak - season but low - price" situation [15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q2 2025 is 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter [1] - In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, and the non - manufacturing PMI business activity index is 50.0% [1] - In August 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 is 6.0%, showing an upward trend [1] - In September 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of exports and imports are 8.3% and 7.4% respectively, showing a significant increase [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports are 33.61 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.1% and imports decreasing by 0.2% [2] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited establishes a new subsidiary in Dubai to expand commodity business and promote connectivity between China and the Middle East [3] - Economists raise the growth forecast of the U.S. economy for this year and next year, but expect employment growth to be weak [3] - On October 13, the Baltic Dry Index rises by 10.74% to 2144 points [4] 3.2.2 Metals - On October 14, the price of New York gold futures hits a record high of $4150 per ounce, and spot gold also reaches a new high [5] - The silver market experiences a rare short - squeeze, and the price of spot silver breaks through $52 per ounce [6] - The ILZSG predicts that the global lead and zinc supply and demand situation will change in 2025 and 2026 [6] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Zangge Mining's subsidiary resumes lithium resource development and utilization activities [9] - In September 2025, China's imports of soybeans, iron ore, and coal reach record or near - record highs [9] - Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 production of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum is announced [10] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Since October 13, 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are reduced, and the probability of the next adjustment being downward is high [11] - China Petrochemical Beijing Petroleum Company promotes the transformation of traditional gas stations into comprehensive energy stations [11] - Saudi Aramco's CEO expects strong global oil demand in the next two years [12] - OPEC's September 2025 crude oil production data is released [12][13] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The live - hog futures price hits a record low, and the spot price of pork also shows a continuous downward trend [15] - The Chinese government arranges "Sanqiu" production work to ensure autumn grain harvest [16] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On October 13, the central bank conducts 1378 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1378 billion yuan [17] 3.3.2 Important News - China starts to collect special port fees on U.S. ships [18] - Trump hints at canceling new tariffs on China [18] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting will be held from October 27 to 30 [20] - The issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 is completed [20] - The 9 - month non - standard trust market shows a significant divergence in volume and price [20] - Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission launches a "real estate fund hotline" [21] - China's real estate - related special bonds increase significantly in the first three quarters of 2025 [21] - Vanke's board chairman changes [21] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rebound, and the prices of Vanke and Shenzhen Metro bonds generally fall [24] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closes down, and the prices of some convertible bonds fluctuate significantly [25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closes down, and the US dollar index rises [29] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed - Income believes that the issuance and net financing of local bonds will decline [30] - Guoxin Fixed - Income suggests not being overly aggressive in the convertible bond market due to increased uncertainties [31] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the short - term bond market has a high probability of winning but not to over - chase the rise [31] 3.4 Stock Market Important News - The A - share market opens lower and rebounds, with some sectors rising and some falling [35] - The Hong Kong stock market closes down, and the net inflow of southbound funds is significant [35][36] - Foreign capital continues to be optimistic about Chinese core assets and increases their allocation [36] - Insurance funds are optimistic about the A - share market in Q4 and focus on two investment lines [36] - The issuance of new funds is hot, and equity funds are the main force [36]

Core Insights - The average seven-day annualized yield of money market funds in China is approaching or even falling below 1%, reflecting a downward trend in low-risk asset yields due to a sustained low interest rate environment [1] - Despite the declining yields, money market funds maintain three core advantages: low risk, strong liquidity, and low investment thresholds [1][2] - As of July 2025, the total scale of money market funds in China reached 14.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, indicating continued growth in this investment category [1] Summary by Category Investment Environment - The decline in money market fund yields is primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors such as loose monetary policy and falling market interest rates, rather than inherent risks of the products themselves [1] Advantages of Money Market Funds - Low Risk: Investments are primarily in high-quality short-term money market instruments like bank deposits, interbank certificates of deposit, government bonds, and central bank bills [1] - Strong Liquidity: Most products support T+0 or T+1 redemption, with some funds integrated into payment scenarios for immediate use [1] - Low Investment Threshold: Typically, investments can start from as low as 1 yuan, making them accessible for ordinary investors [1] Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to adjust their yield expectations and manage idle funds scientifically, balancing safety and liquidity while seeking moderate returns through layered asset allocation [2] - For short-term idle funds (within 3 months), continuing to hold money market funds is advisable to maintain liquidity and safety [2] - For funds not needed for 3 months or more, investors may consider allocating to interbank certificate index funds or short-term bond funds for potentially higher returns [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global capital markets experienced significant volatility, with major U.S. stock indices declining sharply, complicating asset allocation in a low-interest-rate environment. This has led to a transformation in the wealth structure of residents, moving from traditional savings to diversified asset allocation, with bank wealth management products playing a crucial role in this transition [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The bank wealth management market showed a fluctuating upward trend in scale, reaching 30.95 trillion yuan by the end of August, despite a slight decline to 30.82 trillion yuan by the end of September due to liquidity tightening and product redemptions [1]. - The number of investors in wealth management products has steadily increased, with 136 million investors reported by mid-2025, reflecting a growth rate of 8.37% since the beginning of the year, surpassing the growth rate of traditional savings [2]. Group 2: User Behavior - Users of wealth management platforms are demonstrating increased engagement, with 67% growth in users on the "Stable Profit" platform and a trend towards continuous investment rather than one-time attempts [2]. - Small and micro enterprises are emerging as new forces in the wealth management market, actively managing idle operational funds through various financial products to achieve stable returns while maintaining liquidity [4]. Group 3: Product Performance - The "Stable Profit" platform reported an average annualized return of 2.58%, slightly above the industry average of 2.41%, with all products held for over three months achieving positive returns [4]. - The product structure of the "Stable Profit" platform, which focuses on low to medium-risk assets, aligns with the current market demand for stable investment products [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bank wealth management market is expected to continue expanding in scale and restructuring, with the relative advantage of wealth management products in terms of yield likely to attract ongoing capital inflows [7]. - The focus of competition in the industry is shifting from product supply to service capabilities, suggesting that platforms offering stable returns and flexible redemption options will remain attractive to low-risk investors [7].

Group 1: Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Ltd (OCBC) - Lower interest rates are expected to negatively impact OCBC's net interest margin (NIM) and profitability, with NIM declining from a high of 2.31% in 4Q2022 to 1.92% [2][3][4] - Net interest income (NII) for 2Q2025 was S$2.3 billion, accounting for 64.4% of total income, reflecting a 6% year-on-year decline [3][4] - An interim dividend of S$0.41 per share for 1H2025 was declared, representing a 6.8% decrease from S$0.44 in 1H2024, with a constant payout ratio of 50% [4] Group 2: Great Eastern Holdings (GE) - Great Eastern Holdings may experience earnings pressure due to lower interest rates affecting investment income from its financial assets [5][6] - For 1H2025, GE's net profit increased by 1% year-on-year to S$593.7 million, but profit from its insurance business declined by 8% to S$415.2 million [7][8] - New business embedded value (NBEV) surged 16% year-on-year to S$316.5 million, indicating potential future profit growth despite current challenges [8][9] Group 3: Singapore Airlines (SIA) - Singapore Airlines could face earnings pressure as lower rates may indicate slower global economic growth, impacting passenger demand and cargo volumes [10][11] - In 1QFY2025/2026, SIA reported revenue of S$4.8 billion, a 1.5% year-on-year increase, but operating profit declined by 14% to S$404.5 million due to increased competition and higher non-fuel costs [11] - SIA's total debt of S$11.5 billion may benefit from lower global rates through reduced financing costs during refinancing [12]

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged significantly, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3912.1 per ounce on October 4, marking a 3.23% increase for the week and over 48% year-to-date [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have reached new highs, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang reporting prices of 1129 RMB and 1131 RMB per gram respectively [3][4] Market Trends - The demand for gold jewelry remains strong during the Golden Week, with consumers showing a preference for lightweight and stylish designs that are more affordable [7] - Many consumers believe that gold prices will continue to rise, leading to increased purchases ahead of anticipated price hikes [9] - The trend of "one-price" gold jewelry is gaining traction, with consumers prioritizing design over weight, especially among younger buyers [9][10] Investment Sentiment - Investor sentiment is bolstered by the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. government shutdown and weak employment data, which have heightened the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [12] - Analysts predict further increases in gold prices, with Barclays and Citigroup projecting targets of $4000 per ounce and $4200 per ounce by mid-2026 [12][13] - Strong inflows into gold ETFs indicate a robust interest from private investors, suggesting a bullish outlook for the gold market [13]