1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - expectation is weak, and the black commodities are oscillating. Steel prices are affected by macro - sentiment and are in an oscillating state. Iron ore prices are oscillating with high - level iron - water production. The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke remains loose, and their prices are oscillating. The demand for thermal coal is weak, and the decline in coal prices has narrowed [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated slightly. The main rebar contract 2510 closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and the main hot - rolled coil contract 2510 closed at 3211 yuan/ton. The trading volume in the futures market was average, and the overall transaction in the spot market was also average, with the national building materials sales volume at 98000 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The production, sales, and inventory of building materials have improved month - on - month. However, considering the good profits of long - process production, the output of building materials remains stable. As the southern region enters the flood season, the consumption of building materials will gradually decline. The output of plates has decreased, consumption remains high, and inventory is continuously decreasing, supporting plate prices. Steel exports are resilient due to the low - price advantage in the domestic market. Although domestic exports have largely offset the decline in exports to the US, high tariffs may have a marginal negative impact on future exports, resulting in weak steel prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of supply - side policies and the impact of tariffs on indirect steel exports [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures market oscillated upward. As of the close, the main iron ore contract 2509 rose by 0.76%. In the spot market, the price indices of port iron ore showed mixed trends, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. The cumulative trading volume of national main port iron ore and forward - looking spot decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Comprehensive View**: The shipment of iron ore has recovered this period. The iron - water production is oscillating at a high level, maintaining a situation of strong supply and demand. The inventory remains relatively high, but there is no further inventory accumulation in the short term. In the long run, the iron ore market shows a pattern of loose supply - demand, but when the actual situation turns to looseness depends on future consumption and the implementation of supply - side policies. Attention should be paid to iron ore shipments, blast furnace restart and maintenance, and the impact of supply - side changes on the industrial chain [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate; there are no strategies for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the double - coking futures oscillated as a whole. For coke, the steel prices have been oscillating downward recently, and the trading volume is weak. For coking coal, as the second - round price cut for coke is emerging, the market is pessimistic. Coke enterprises continue to replenish inventory as needed. Some prices were lowered by 20 - 40 yuan/ton yesterday, and most auction transactions ended with price cuts, with a high rate of auction failures. In the imported Mongolian coal market, the bearish expectation is strong, the shipment pressure at the port is high, and the market trading volume continues to weaken [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Currently, coke enterprises still have profits, and the coke supply is relatively stable. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season and may decline. Therefore, some steel mills are controlling their procurement. The overall coke market has a relatively loose supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand expectation in the off - season is weak. Although coke is supported to some extent by the high - level iron - water production of steel mills, there are concerns about future inventory reduction, and coking coal shows a trend of inventory accumulation. Without actual driving factors such as macro - level benefits or coal mine production cuts, the supply - demand of coking coal is expected to remain loose. Attention should be paid to changes in iron - water production and the impact of overseas tariff policies [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to oscillate weakly; coke is expected to oscillate; there are no strategies for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, or options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the origin area, the decline in port prices has slowed down recently, and the pit - mouth coal prices have been slightly lowered. The market sentiment has slightly eased. The number of coal - hauling trucks in a few coal mines has increased, reducing inventory pressure. In the port area, the port market is running weakly and steadily. The market inquiry demand has increased, and the quotes are gradually firming up. However, the port inventory remains high, and the short - term market is difficult to rebound. In the import market, the imported coal market is running weakly and steadily. As the domestic coal price continues to fall, the bid price of imported coal continues to decline, and the procurement enthusiasm is not high [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: In the short term, the demand for coal prices lacks support. As the weather warms up, the price clearly lacks support. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7].

简评 5 月 7 日三部委新闻发布会 证券研究报告/宏观定期报告 2025 年 05 月 07 日 | 分析师：张德礼 | 报告摘要 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0740523040001 |  2025 年 5 月 7 日，三部委召开新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期" | | Email：zhangdl01@zts.com.cn | 有关情况，对此有以下学习体会： | | |  第一，会议超预期。首先是召开时间，昨天下午才提前公告的。其次是均为一把手出 | | 相关报告 | 席，市场之前对出席的"负责人"级别有诸多讨论。最后是政策超预期，货币政策降 | | | 准降息，三部委多措并举稳楼市稳股市。除了落实 月 日政治局会议外，可能也 4 25 | | | 和 4 月官方制造业 PMI 弱于季节性有关。 | | | 股波动不大，在岸人民币兑美  第二，市场反应相对平稳。预告一揽子金融政策后，A | | | 元汇率窄幅震荡，长端利率上行。对比 924 新闻发布会看，本次新闻发布会期间市场 | | | 表现相对平稳，一方面是因美国对等关税政策落地后，中国各类稳市场政策取 ...

供给侧政策短期利多，政策强定力中期依然弱势 中泰黑色报告 2025年4月28日 黑色研究团队 裴红彬 从业资格号：F0286311 交易咨询证书号：Z0010786 张 林 从业资格号：F0243334 交易咨询证书号：Z0000866 董雪珊 从业资格号：F3075616 交易咨询证书号：Z0018025 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 中泰黑色报告摘要20250426：供给侧政策短期利多，政策强定力中期依然弱势 交易逻辑和核心观点 受粗钢压减政策减产5000万吨消息影响，钢材走势震荡偏强运行。但从政治局会议精神来看，国内政策以稳为主，表现出较强定力，后期存量政策紧 踩油门，增量政策引而不发，大概率要等到出口等影响到经济增速以后，或者叠加对等关税90天豁免到期，也就是6-7月份之后，或者7月底的政治局会议。 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 政治局会议精神对黑色市场影响：政策"两步走"，存量加速，增量蓄力 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 从成本来看，原料价格近期废钢提涨以及铁 ...

Steel Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)", which includes a two-tier evaluation for steel enterprises: "Standard Enterprises" and "Leading Standard Enterprises" [3] - Under the broader policy goal of "supply-side better adapting to demand changes", the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels, and the price-to-book (PB) ratio of steel stocks is likely to improve accordingly [3] Oil and Chemical Industry - On March 3, OPEC+ decided to increase production, raising concerns about the supply side of crude oil, leading to a drop in oil prices [4] - As of March 7, Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices were reported at $70.45 and $67.05 per barrel, reflecting declines of 3.6% and 4.1% respectively from the previous week [4] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - As of March 7, the average price of external three-yuan live pigs was 14.50 yuan/kg, remaining stable week-on-week, while the average price of 15 kg piglets decreased by 0.76% to 32.76 yuan/kg [5] - The average weight of commodity pigs for slaughter was 127.06 kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.54 kg, and the cold storage capacity of slaughterhouses rose by 0.50 percentage points to 13.32% [5] Coal Mining Industry - The coal price has stabilized after a decline, supported by strong long-term contract mechanisms [6][7] - The coal industry associations have issued a proposal to control production, indicating their commitment to maintaining the long-term contract system [7] Electric Power and Environmental Protection - The report suggests a balanced allocation among lithium batteries, power grids, and wind power to mitigate volatility in humanoid robots and computing power sectors [8] - The lithium battery sector is entering a peak production season with stable fundamentals, while high-pressure lithium iron phosphate, copper foil, and fast-charging anodes are expected to see price increases [8] Automotive Industry - The focus on automotive intelligence was highlighted during the National People's Congress, with expectations for significant growth in electric vehicle consumption in 2025 [9] - The release of new car models is anticipated to boost consumer demand, and the impact of potential escalations in US-China tariff conflicts on export component companies is under observation [9] Technology Industry - A significant number of computing power leasing orders have been announced, and policies related to robotics are being released [10] - The government work report mentioned key technology areas such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and quantum technology, indicating a focus on advanced technological development [10]