国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 刘豫武 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 | liuyuwu@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 2025年07月06日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 1、钢材观点：低估值叠加政策驱动，钢价小幅上涨 2、铁矿石观点：行业预期改善，原料估值提升 3、煤焦：焦炭一轮提涨预期，宽幅震荡 4、铁合金观点：宏观与基本面博弈，合金价格跟随板块震荡 Special report on Guot ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Low valuation combined with policy drivers lead to a slight increase in steel prices. The overseas macro situation shows that the easing of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the rise in the expectation of US interest rate cuts, and the decline of the US dollar index are beneficial to pro - cyclical commodities. In the domestic market, the supply - side expectation is briefly traded, and the demand side is waiting for the July 30 Politburo meeting. In the black产业链, the steel demand in the off - season exceeds expectations, the steel inventory is low, the steel mill profit expands, the decline of hot metal is slow, and the negative feedback transmission is not smooth [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Situation - **Macro - environment**: Overseas, the macro - trading is temporarily biased towards the direction of interest rate cuts. The easing of the Middle East situation, poor US employment data, and the expectation of interest rate cuts have a positive impact on pro - cyclical commodities. Domestically, the supply - side expectation is briefly traded, and the demand side is waiting for the July 30 Politburo meeting. There have been a series of policy events such as real - estate favorable policies, debt replacement, and government work reports [5][8][9]. - **Black Industry Chain**: The steel demand in the off - season exceeds expectations, the steel inventory is low, the steel mill profit expands, the decline of hot metal is slow, and the negative feedback transmission is not smooth [5][11]. 3.2 Rebar (Thread Steel) - **Price and Spread**: Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3160 (+80) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3072 (+77) yuan/ton, the main contract basis was 88 (+8) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 21 (-21) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the off - season spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [17]. - **Demand**: Second - hand housing transactions remain high, indicating the existence of rigid demand, but new - housing transactions remain low, showing weak market confidence. Land transaction area also remains low. With the arrival of the off - season, demand shows a seasonal decline [21][22]. - **Supply and Inventory**: According to MS weekly data, the destocking of steel mill inventory slows down, and supply slightly increases. The spot profit last week was 336 (+84) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 325 (+46) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 59 (+82) yuan/ton [24][32]. 3.3 Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Spread**: Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3250 (+60) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3201 (+80) yuan/ton, the main contract basis was 49 (-20) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 9 (-3) yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the off - season spread reverse arbitrage opportunities [37]. - **Demand**: The demand for hot - rolled coils weakens month - on - month. The US imposes tariffs on steel - made household appliances, the white - goods production enters the seasonal off - season, and the export also weakens month - on - month [38][41][42]. - **Supply and Inventory**: According to MS weekly data, demand weakens month - on - month, inventory slightly accumulates, and steel mills maintain high production. The spot profit last week was 238 (+62) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 304 (+49) yuan/ton [46][47][52]. 3.4 Variety Spread Structure - There are various spread structures such as the cold - hot spread in Shanghai, the coil - rebar spread in Shanghai, the medium - plate hot - roll spread in Shanghai, the wire - rebar spread in Hangzhou, etc. There are also regional spreads for rebar, wire, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil [53][54][61]. 3.5 Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate - Data on the supply, demand, and inventory of cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates are provided, including seasonal data on total inventory, production, and apparent consumption [65][66].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: In the second half of the year, the demand is pro - cyclically weak, and the policy is "easy to loosen and hard to tighten". Under the assumption of relatively mild monetary and supply - side policies, focus on policy expectations in July, with a relatively positive macro tone. From July to September, if policies do not turn significantly looser, the US will face liquidity risks and the threat of "reciprocal tariffs", bringing macro pressure. After September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [8][29][30]. - **Mesoscopic**: From the perspective of policy documents and industry self - discipline, industries such as steel, refining, synthetic ammonia, cement, electrolytic aluminum, data centers, coal - fired power, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e - commerce can be focused on for the current comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition [9]. - **Microscopic**: Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency. It is necessary for the Fed to restart the easing cycle smoothly, and gold, crude oil, and non - ferrous metals are relatively beneficial. Domestically, the core is the supply - side policy. Referring to 2015, sectors with obvious supply - side production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved, with the mid - and downstream benefiting more than the upstream. This round focuses on sectors such as the black sector and new energy metals [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - **Demand and Inventory Cycle**: The pro - cyclical demand in the second half of the year is weak. The Sino - US inventory cycle has re - entered the destocking phase, and this round of destocking may last until the end of 2025 [14]. - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: Global central banks are "easy to loosen and hard to tighten", and both China and the US are increasing fiscal policies. In China, a series of financial policies have been introduced, and the "market bottom" is clear [20][21]. - **Tariff Threats**: Global populist waves are continuous. Trump has issued tariff threats, and the US is in different stages of trade negotiations with various countries [25]. - **Macro Scenario Deduction**: In July, focus on policy expectations; from July to September, there is macro pressure; after September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [28][29][30]. 3.2 Mesoscopic - **Policy Shift in the US**: The passage of the "Great Beauty" bill marks the US's shift from the first half of the year's "tight fiscal expectation + neutral currency" to a "easy to loosen and hard to tighten" policy stage [32]. - **Domestic Policy Focus**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting focuses on governing "involution - style" competition, but details of industry production cuts are needed to determine the inflation trading theme [32]. - **Policy on "Involution - style" Competition**: Policy documents and industry self - discipline focus on industries such as steel, refining, etc. The causes of "involution - style" competition are analyzed, and comprehensive rectification ideas are proposed [9][35][36]. 3.3 Commodities - **Capital Expenditure**: The capital expenditure of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, while that of the black, chemical, and energy sectors has increased. The capital expenditure of crude oil has increased, and the capital expenditure of industrial metals has shown different trends [42][45]. - **Asset Performance in Stagflation - like Situations**: Overseas macro situations are more in line with "stagflation - like" characteristics. In historical stagflation - like stages, the performance of various assets is highly differentiated [54]. - **2015 Supply - side Reform Review**: In 2015, supply - side structural reform was proposed, with clear tasks such as "cutting overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs, and strengthening weak links". Sectors with obvious production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved [61][62].

Summary of the Conference Call for Rongsheng Petrochemical Industry Overview - The Chinese petrochemical industry is experiencing a slowdown in capacity growth, with refining capacity nearing the 1 billion tons threshold, limiting new capacity additions. [2][3] - The global refining industry is undergoing consolidation, with European and American companies gradually shutting down some refineries. It is projected that from 2025 to 2030, global new capacity additions will average only 400,000 barrels per day. [2][3] - Aromatics capacity growth is also slowing, with a domestic compound growth rate of approximately 3%. The supply structure remains healthy, but Japanese and Korean facilities are reducing their operating rates due to economic inefficiencies. [2][4] Key Insights on Company Performance - In Q1 2025, all segments of Rongsheng Petrochemical reported profits, with refining generating 1.2 billion yuan. The PTA and polyester segments also showed profitability. [11] - The company is transitioning from a focus on refined oil products to chemical products, aiming to reduce refined oil yield to below 20% and enhance sales and production flexibility. [2][7][8] - The company holds an export quota of 3.7 million tons and is actively pursuing integrated upgrades to improve operational efficiency. [7][8] Future Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for refined oil has peaked, particularly for diesel and gasoline, which are significantly impacted by the rise of electric vehicles. By 2030, refined oil consumption is expected to gradually decline. [7] - The aromatics market is optimistic, with stable demand from PTA and downstream polyester sectors. The breakeven point for PX to naphtha is around $100 per ton, significantly better than the global average of $300 per ton. [9][10] Challenges and Risks - The tightening of policies has made it difficult to obtain new approvals for olefins, with the possibility of new permits being extremely low. [5] - The operating rate of Shandong's local refineries has dropped from 60% to 40%, influenced by peak refined oil demand and tightening tax policies, leading to a gradual market exit. [6] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could impact raw material supply and pricing, although the company has maintained stable production and sales rates. [12] Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing in high-performance resins and high-temperature new materials, with projects expected to be completed by the end of 2025 and 2026, respectively. [15] - Capital expenditure plans for the polyester and PTA segments are being adjusted, with no new projects planned as existing capacities have been fully utilized. [16] - The company is also exploring coal chemical projects in Inner Mongolia, pending national approval. [20] Financial Management - The major shareholder has been actively increasing their stake since 2024, with a total investment of 1.7 billion yuan across three buyback phases, aimed at enhancing investor confidence. [21] - The company aims to reduce its debt ratio to below 70% by improving operational cash flow, with expectations of further cash flow enhancement as projects are implemented. [22] Conclusion - Rongsheng Petrochemical is navigating a challenging environment marked by capacity constraints and shifting demand dynamics. The company is strategically repositioning itself towards chemical production while managing risks associated with geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes. The outlook for the aromatics market remains positive, supported by strong domestic demand and competitive advantages in production costs. [2][9][10]

36 关注微信公众号 | 资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 徐艺丹 Z0020017 | | | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 724.2 | 711.0 | 13.2 | 1.9% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 753.5 | 740.3 | 13.2 | 1.8% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 764.2 | 751.3 | 12.9 | 1.7% | | | 仓单成本:金布巴粉 | 745.4 | 732.5 | 12.9 | 1.8% | | | 09合约基差:卡粉 | 47.7 | 42.5 | 5.2 | 12.3% | | | 09合约基差:PB粉 | 31.0 | 71.8 | -40.8 | -56.8% | 元/吨 | | 09合约基差:巴混粉 | 41.7 | 82.8 | -41.1 | -49.6% | | | 09合约基差 ...

Group 1 - The main contract for rebar futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 3071.00 yuan, closing at 3065.00 yuan with a rise of 2.61% [1] - Institutions have differing views on the future market trends for rebar, with expectations of slight rebounds in prices [2][3][4] Group 2 - Zhonghui Futures predicts a slight rebound in rebar prices due to improving policy expectations and support from supply-side policies, despite the overall weak market conditions [2] - New Century Futures notes that while there is a slight rebound in prices, the overall demand is expected to decline seasonally, leading to a weak supply-demand structure [3] - Guoxin Futures highlights that the supply side is recovering slightly with increased production, while demand shows resilience, suggesting a stable supply-demand balance [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - expectation is weak, and the black commodities are oscillating. Steel prices are affected by macro - sentiment and are in an oscillating state. Iron ore prices are oscillating with high - level iron - water production. The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke remains loose, and their prices are oscillating. The demand for thermal coal is weak, and the decline in coal prices has narrowed [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated slightly. The main rebar contract 2510 closed at 3061 yuan/ton, and the main hot - rolled coil contract 2510 closed at 3211 yuan/ton. The trading volume in the futures market was average, and the overall transaction in the spot market was also average, with the national building materials sales volume at 98000 tons [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The production, sales, and inventory of building materials have improved month - on - month. However, considering the good profits of long - process production, the output of building materials remains stable. As the southern region enters the flood season, the consumption of building materials will gradually decline. The output of plates has decreased, consumption remains high, and inventory is continuously decreasing, supporting plate prices. Steel exports are resilient due to the low - price advantage in the domestic market. Although domestic exports have largely offset the decline in exports to the US, high tariffs may have a marginal negative impact on future exports, resulting in weak steel prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of supply - side policies and the impact of tariffs on indirect steel exports [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures market oscillated upward. As of the close, the main iron ore contract 2509 rose by 0.76%. In the spot market, the price indices of port iron ore showed mixed trends, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. The cumulative trading volume of national main port iron ore and forward - looking spot decreased month - on - month [3]. - **Comprehensive View**: The shipment of iron ore has recovered this period. The iron - water production is oscillating at a high level, maintaining a situation of strong supply and demand. The inventory remains relatively high, but there is no further inventory accumulation in the short term. In the long run, the iron ore market shows a pattern of loose supply - demand, but when the actual situation turns to looseness depends on future consumption and the implementation of supply - side policies. Attention should be paid to iron ore shipments, blast furnace restart and maintenance, and the impact of supply - side changes on the industrial chain [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate; there are no strategies for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the double - coking futures oscillated as a whole. For coke, the steel prices have been oscillating downward recently, and the trading volume is weak. For coking coal, as the second - round price cut for coke is emerging, the market is pessimistic. Coke enterprises continue to replenish inventory as needed. Some prices were lowered by 20 - 40 yuan/ton yesterday, and most auction transactions ended with price cuts, with a high rate of auction failures. In the imported Mongolian coal market, the bearish expectation is strong, the shipment pressure at the port is high, and the market trading volume continues to weaken [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Currently, coke enterprises still have profits, and the coke supply is relatively stable. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season and may decline. Therefore, some steel mills are controlling their procurement. The overall coke market has a relatively loose supply - demand pattern. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand expectation in the off - season is weak. Although coke is supported to some extent by the high - level iron - water production of steel mills, there are concerns about future inventory reduction, and coking coal shows a trend of inventory accumulation. Without actual driving factors such as macro - level benefits or coal mine production cuts, the supply - demand of coking coal is expected to remain loose. Attention should be paid to changes in iron - water production and the impact of overseas tariff policies [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to oscillate weakly; coke is expected to oscillate; there are no strategies for inter - variety, inter - period, spot - futures, or options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the origin area, the decline in port prices has slowed down recently, and the pit - mouth coal prices have been slightly lowered. The market sentiment has slightly eased. The number of coal - hauling trucks in a few coal mines has increased, reducing inventory pressure. In the port area, the port market is running weakly and steadily. The market inquiry demand has increased, and the quotes are gradually firming up. However, the port inventory remains high, and the short - term market is difficult to rebound. In the import market, the imported coal market is running weakly and steadily. As the domestic coal price continues to fall, the bid price of imported coal continues to decline, and the procurement enthusiasm is not high [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: In the short term, the demand for coal prices lacks support. As the weather warms up, the price clearly lacks support. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7].

Group 1: Policy Announcement - The press conference on May 7, 2025, by three ministries introduced a "package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations" which exceeded market expectations[2] - The announcement included a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5 percentage points and a cut in policy interest rates by 0.1 percentage points[2] - The policies aim to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, responding to weaker-than-seasonal manufacturing PMI data in April[2] Group 2: Market Reaction - The market response was relatively stable, with the onshore RMB exchange rate fluctuating narrowly and long-term interest rates rising[2] - Compared to the previous press conference in September 2024, the market sentiment was more optimistic due to effective stabilization policies implemented since then[2] - The anticipation of a dual reduction in RRR and interest rates had already been priced in by the market[2] Group 3: Comprehensive Policy Deployment - The financial policy package included both quantitative and qualitative measures, with eight new policies aimed at supporting real estate, insurance investments in stocks, and small and private enterprises[2] - The focus is on stabilizing and activating the capital market, emphasizing the service of new productive forces and promoting long-term capital inflows[2] Group 4: Future Market Focus - Future market attention will be on the progress of US-China tariff negotiations, with expectations of potential tariff reductions in Q2[2] - The timing of new policies to expand domestic demand will depend on May's economic data, with new measures likely to be introduced in June[2] - The advancement of supply-side policies is expected to be slower than in 2016 due to employment stability considerations[2] Group 5: Risk Factors - Risks include the possibility of policy implementation not meeting expectations and the potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts[2]

供给侧政策短期利多，政策强定力中期依然弱势 中泰黑色报告 2025年4月28日 黑色研究团队 裴红彬 从业资格号：F0286311 交易咨询证书号：Z0010786 张 林 从业资格号：F0243334 交易咨询证书号：Z0000866 董雪珊 从业资格号：F3075616 交易咨询证书号：Z0018025 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 中泰黑色报告摘要20250426：供给侧政策短期利多，政策强定力中期依然弱势 交易逻辑和核心观点 受粗钢压减政策减产5000万吨消息影响，钢材走势震荡偏强运行。但从政治局会议精神来看，国内政策以稳为主，表现出较强定力，后期存量政策紧 踩油门，增量政策引而不发，大概率要等到出口等影响到经济增速以后，或者叠加对等关税90天豁免到期，也就是6-7月份之后，或者7月底的政治局会议。 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 政治局会议精神对黑色市场影响：政策"两步走"，存量加速，增量蓄力 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 从成本来看，原料价格近期废钢提涨以及铁 ...

Steel Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)", which includes a two-tier evaluation for steel enterprises: "Standard Enterprises" and "Leading Standard Enterprises" [3] - Under the broader policy goal of "supply-side better adapting to demand changes", the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels, and the price-to-book (PB) ratio of steel stocks is likely to improve accordingly [3] Oil and Chemical Industry - On March 3, OPEC+ decided to increase production, raising concerns about the supply side of crude oil, leading to a drop in oil prices [4] - As of March 7, Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices were reported at $70.45 and $67.05 per barrel, reflecting declines of 3.6% and 4.1% respectively from the previous week [4] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - As of March 7, the average price of external three-yuan live pigs was 14.50 yuan/kg, remaining stable week-on-week, while the average price of 15 kg piglets decreased by 0.76% to 32.76 yuan/kg [5] - The average weight of commodity pigs for slaughter was 127.06 kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.54 kg, and the cold storage capacity of slaughterhouses rose by 0.50 percentage points to 13.32% [5] Coal Mining Industry - The coal price has stabilized after a decline, supported by strong long-term contract mechanisms [6][7] - The coal industry associations have issued a proposal to control production, indicating their commitment to maintaining the long-term contract system [7] Electric Power and Environmental Protection - The report suggests a balanced allocation among lithium batteries, power grids, and wind power to mitigate volatility in humanoid robots and computing power sectors [8] - The lithium battery sector is entering a peak production season with stable fundamentals, while high-pressure lithium iron phosphate, copper foil, and fast-charging anodes are expected to see price increases [8] Automotive Industry - The focus on automotive intelligence was highlighted during the National People's Congress, with expectations for significant growth in electric vehicle consumption in 2025 [9] - The release of new car models is anticipated to boost consumer demand, and the impact of potential escalations in US-China tariff conflicts on export component companies is under observation [9] Technology Industry - A significant number of computing power leasing orders have been announced, and policies related to robotics are being released [10] - The government work report mentioned key technology areas such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and quantum technology, indicating a focus on advanced technological development [10]