1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, tin prices showed a volatile trend, with weekly prices stabilizing around 260,000 yuan/ton. The fundamentals of tin are relatively stable, and after the re - evaluation of supply - demand balance, tin may shift from an annual shortage to a tight supply - demand balance. The current equilibrium price of tin may be between 260,000 and 270,000 yuan, and a range - bound trading strategy is recommended [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) - **Spot**: This week, the LME 0 - 3 discount was 171 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium fell to 1,000 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums were basically flat compared to last week, with a slight increase in Southeast Asian premiums [9][10][15] - **Spread**: This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from a large backwardation to contango [17][18] - **Inventory**: This week, the global total tin inventory decreased by 1,579 tons, the domestic social inventory decreased by 72 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 297 tons. The LME inventory decreased by 35 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio rose to 13.7% [22][23][26] - **Funds**: As of this Friday, the settled funds for SHFE tin were 1.64047 billion yuan, and the funds flowed out in the past 10 days [31][32] - **Transaction and Position**: This week, the trading volume and open interest of SHFE tin dropped significantly. The trading volume of LME tin continued to decline significantly from the previous high [34][40] - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE tin declined slightly [46] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - **Tin Ore**: In March 2025, 8,323 tons of tin ore were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 4.83% and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 55.44%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained stable at 12,500 yuan/ton, and that for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan remained at 8,500 yuan/ton. The import profit - loss level of tin ore increased slightly [50][51] - **Smelting**: In March 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,080 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. This week, the combined operating rate of enterprises in Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 56.34%, a slight decline from last week [53][55] - **Import**: In March 2025, 2,101 tons of domestic tin ingots were imported, 1,673 tons were exported, and the net import was 428 tons. Among them, 1,093 tons of tin ingots were imported from Indonesia to China. The latest import profit - loss was - 8,039 yuan/ton [60][62] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) - **Consumption Volume**: In February 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 13,546 tons, and the actual consumption was 12,662 tons, a slight decline from the previous month [66] - **Tin Materials**: This week, the downstream processing fees remained stable, and the operating rate of solder enterprises in February increased slightly [68] - **End - User Consumption**: In December 2024, the output of end - user products generally increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The consumption of household appliances and new energy also showed an upward trend month - on - month and year - on - year. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index declined, in line with the performance of tin prices [75][77][82]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 事件： 2025年4月19日，北方稀土公布2024年报，公司2024年实现营业收入329.66亿元，同比-1.58%；实现归母 净利润10.04亿元，同比-57.64%。 点评： 2024年业绩下滑主要系稀土产品价格下跌，但公司主要品种销量均增长 Q4单季归母净利润为5.99亿元，为2024年单季最高值。公司2024年归母净利润同比下滑主要系以稀土镨钕 产品为代表主要稀土产品价格总体呈震荡下行走势：2024年 氧化镨钕 / 氧化镝 / 氧化铽 / 氧化镧 产品平均 价格分别为 392.57 / 1,832.31 / 5,749.52 / 4.00元 /公斤，分别同比 -25.99% / -21.32% / -37.15% /-26.74% 。 但公司 2024年主要产品 销量 均同比提升： 公司实现 稀土氧化物 / 稀土盐类 /稀土金属销量分别为 30,573.32吨 / 104,051.25 吨 / 35,326.95吨 ， 同比 +6.07%/ 19.26 %/13.77% 。 推进绿色冶炼升级改造项目， 2025年主要生产经营目标再有提升 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the electrolytic aluminum sector, indicating an upward trend in aluminum prices for 2025 [2][34]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the destocking of electrolytic aluminum is occurring earlier than in previous years, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance, which is expected to support aluminum prices [3][4]. - The average profit for the electrolytic aluminum industry has significantly improved, transitioning from losses at the end of the previous year to substantial profits in early 2025, driven by falling costs of alumina and electricity [3][18]. - The demand structure for aluminum is undergoing transformation, with significant growth expected in the new energy and power sectors, which will offset declines in the real estate sector [15][34]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of February 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity reached 45.17 million tons, nearing its ceiling, with an operating capacity of 43.98 million tons and a utilization rate of 97.4% [15][34]. - The total inventory of electrolytic aluminum (ingots and rods) decreased by 25,100 tons compared to the previous week, indicating a shift towards destocking earlier than in past years [3][4]. Cost Analysis - The price of alumina has dropped significantly, with a reported price of 3,381 RMB/ton as of March 6, 2025, down 41.4% from its peak in December 2024, leading to a reduction in electrolytic aluminum production costs by approximately 4,597 RMB/ton [18][29]. - The price of coal has also decreased, with Q5500 coal prices falling to 700 RMB/ton, resulting in a corresponding drop in electricity costs for aluminum production [29][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and stable performance, such as Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and China Aluminum, as potential investment opportunities [34][35].