Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil: Not clearly defined in the given rating system [1] - Iron ore: Not clearly defined in the given rating system [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but limited trading operability [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias but limited trading operability [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★☆, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is evolving [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, indicating a clear bullish trend and the market is evolving [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic demand for steel is still weak, and the steel market is mainly in a range-bound pattern. The iron ore market has a loose supply - demand relationship and high - level volatility risks. Coke and coking coal prices are likely to be strongly volatile. Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon are recommended to buy on dips [2][3][7] Summary by Directory Steel - The steel futures market declined today. Thread steel's apparent demand decreased, production slightly increased, and inventory started to accumulate. Hot - rolled coil demand fell, production continued to rise slightly, and inventory decreased slowly. Steel mill profits improved marginally, blast furnaces gradually resumed production, and hot metal output increased in the short term. Downstream industries' investment showed a weak trend, and steel exports remained high. The market is expected to be range - bound [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market was weakly volatile. Supply decreased seasonally globally, domestic arrivals remained high, and port inventories increased significantly. Demand was weak in the off - season, steel mill profits declined, and hot metal production increased but was difficult to significantly recover in the short term. Steel mills' imported ore inventories increased but were still low, with winter storage expectations. The market is at risk of increased high - level volatility [3] Coke - Coke prices fluctuated within the day. The fifth round of price cuts was postponed, coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory remained almost unchanged. Carbon supply is abundant, downstream hot metal output is likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials is at an off - season level. Steel mills still have a strong desire to lower raw material prices. The price is likely to be strongly volatile [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fluctuated after rising within the day. Yesterday, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1,291 vehicles. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, and mines resumed production well after the New Year. Spot auction transactions were okay, and transaction prices increased slightly. Terminal inventories increased slightly, and total coking coal inventories increased significantly. The price is likely to be strongly volatile [6] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. Manganese ore spot prices increased. There are structural problems in manganese ore port inventories. Demand for semi - carbonate ore may increase. Hot metal production decreased seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production and inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rebounded after hitting the bottom. Affected by relevant policies, the price was relatively strong. There are expectations of a decline in power costs and semi - coke prices. Hot metal production rebounded to a high level, export demand decreased slightly, and magnesium metal production increased. Ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to buy on dips [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★☆, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of weak domestic demand and high exports. The market sentiment has cooled, and the price is mainly in a range - bound oscillation [2] - The iron ore market has a relatively loose supply - demand relationship. The port inventory has increased significantly, and there is a risk of intensified high - level fluctuations [3] - The coking market's fifth - round price cut is on hold. The price is likely to be in a relatively strong oscillation, and attention should be paid to the downstream procurement volume next week [4] - The coking coal market has an abundant supply of carbon elements. The price is likely to be in a relatively strong oscillation, and the market has certain expectations for coal - related policies [6] - The silicon manganese market has a structural problem in port inventory. It is recommended to buy on dips [7] - The ferrosilicon market is affected by policies. The demand is still resilient, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The thread's apparent demand continues to decline, production slightly rebounds, and inventory begins to accumulate. The hot - roll demand declines, production slightly rebounds, and inventory is slowly depleted with pressure to be relieved [2] - Steel mill profits are marginally repaired, blast furnaces are gradually restarted, and hot - metal production rebounds in the short term, but its sustainability is to be observed [2] - Real estate investment decline continues to expand, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continue to fall, domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high [2] - The market's optimistic sentiment cools, the trading floor is under pressure to fall back, and it is mainly in a range - bound oscillation in the short term [2] Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments decline seasonally, domestic arrivals remain high, port inventory rises significantly this week, and the number of stranded ships increases [3] - On the demand side, terminal demand is weak in the off - season, steel mill profitability declines, hot - metal production increases but there is no obvious restart in the short term [3] - Steel mill imported ore inventory continues to increase but is still at a low level, and there is still a certain expectation of winter storage replenishment [3] - The commodity market sentiment is volatile, and the iron ore's own fundamentals are relatively loose, so it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of intensified high - level fluctuations [3] Coke - The price fluctuates mainly during the day. The fifth - round price cut is on hold, coking profits are average, and daily production slightly increases [4] - Coke inventory hardly changes, and attention should be paid to whether the downstream procurement volume increases next week [4] - The supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream hot - metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials remains at an off - season level. Steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [4] - The coke trading floor has a premium, and the price is likely to be in a relatively strong oscillation [4] Coking Coal - The price fluctuates mainly during the day. Yesterday, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1,291 vehicles [6] - Coking coal mine production slightly decreases, and the mine restart situation is good after the New Year's Day [6] - Spot auction transactions are okay, the transaction price rises slightly driven by the trading floor price increase, and terminal inventory slightly increases [6] - Total coking coal inventory increases significantly, and production - end inventory rises significantly [6] - The supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream hot - metal production is likely to bottom out and rebound, and the demand for raw materials remains at an off - season level. Steel mills still have a strong sentiment of pressing prices on raw materials [6] - The coking coal trading floor has a premium over Mongolian coal, and the price is likely to be in a relatively strong oscillation [6] Silicon Manganese - The price rebounds after hitting the bottom during the day. Driven by the trading floor rebound, the manganese ore spot price rises [7] - There is a structural problem in the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile [7] - Silicon manganese smelters pursue the most cost - effective option and change the manganese ore blending formula. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi - carbonate ore is likely to increase [7] - Last week, the manganese ore spot transaction price rose. On the demand side, hot - metal production decreases seasonally, silicon manganese weekly production slightly decreases, and silicon manganese inventory slightly decreases [7] - It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the impact of "anti - involution" [7] Ferrosilicon - The price rebounds after hitting the bottom during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong [8] - The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee increases, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in power costs and blue - charcoal prices [8] - On the demand side, hot - metal production rebounds to a high - level range, export demand drops to above 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant [8] - Metal magnesium production increases month - on - month, secondary demand increases marginally, and overall demand is still resilient [8] - Ferrosilicon supply drops significantly, inventory slightly decreases, and attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" [8] - It is recommended to buy on dips [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - In the off - season, demand seasonally weakens. With the gradual resumption of production by steel mills, the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel side becomes apparent, and fundamental contradictions start to accumulate. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking expectations support the iron ore price, but high inventory limits the upside space. The supply - side expectations of coking coal are still volatile, and winter storage support is limited. The glass and soda ash market is suppressed by oversupply. After a weak adjustment, the prices of furnace materials are expected to rise from low levels before the Spring Festival, but the upside space is limited by steel mill profits [1][2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Port inventory continues to accumulate. There are expected disruptions on the supply side. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need verification. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The daily port trading volume is 103(+42.8) million tons. The price of spot market quotes fell by 3 - 11 yuan/ton. Overseas mine shipments decreased significantly, while arrivals increased. The iron - making rate of steel mills weakened slightly, and the restocking demand increased but the rhythm was slow [2][8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventory is high, and restocking slows down. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum, but the good electric - furnace profit and high daily consumption support demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate. This week, the average daily arrival volume decreased, and the total daily consumption of the latest sample electric furnaces remained stable at a high level. The inventory of long - process steel mills is high, and restocking slows down [2][10] Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As mid - and downstream winter storage and restocking gradually start, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive spot - futures and speculative demand to enter the market for purchases, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal market. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke is 1480 yuan/ton (+10), and the port basis of the 05 contract is - 115 yuan/ton (+8) [2][12] - **Coking Coal**: As the New Year approaches, the intensity of winter storage gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, and the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally. The futures and spot prices still have upward momentum. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1250 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1200 yuan/ton (+93) [2][12][13] Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The pattern of loose supply and demand of silicomanganese continues. The upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling pressure for hedging. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to near the cost valuation. The ex - factory price of 6517 silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia is 5750 yuan/ton (+100), and the price of 45.0% Australian ore blocks at Tianjin Port is 42 yuan/ton - degree (+0.2) [3][17][18] - **Ferrosilicon**: Currently, the supply pressure of ferrosilicon is not great, but after profit repair, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear. In an environment of weak supply and demand, the upside space of the futures price should be viewed with caution. The ex - factory price of 72 ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 5370 yuan/ton (0), and the price of 99.9% magnesium ingots in Fugu is 16750 yuan/ton (+400) [3][19] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expected disruptions in supply, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1020 yuan/ton (+10), and the national average price is 1086 yuan/ton (+5) [3][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction. The delivered price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1200 yuan/ton (-) [3][17] Other Information - **Steel**: The inventory begins to accumulate, and the futures price falls from a high level. The spot market trading volume weakens. The price of Hangzhou rebar is 3290 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3270 (-10) yuan/ton. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil increases. The demand in the off - season weakens seasonally, and the overall steel inventory stops falling and rebounds [8] - **Commodity Index**: On January 8, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased by 1.06% to 2380.19, the commodity 20 index decreased by 1.00% to 2717.76, and the industrial product index decreased by 1.19% to 2317.04. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.69% on that day, increased by 2.50% in the past 5 days, increased by 4.93% in the past month, and increased by 2.50% since the beginning of the year [106][107][109]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's meeting emphasizes promoting high - quality economic development and a reasonable rise in prices, keeping the macro sentiment positive. The supply of coking coal is tightening, driving up the prices of coking coal and coke. With the expected resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking, iron ore prices remain strong. Although the fundamentals of steel in the off - season are lackluster, strong cost support keeps the futures prices strong. The price increase of glass and soda ash stimulates mid - stream restocking, but fundamental contradictions still exist [1][2]. - In general, the off - season fundamentals have few bright spots. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. The resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to boost the restocking expectation further, and the prices of furnace materials are expected to rise from the low level, but the upside is limited by steel mills' profits [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventories are continuously accumulating, and there are expectations of supply disruptions. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need to be verified. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [2][8]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventories are high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel lacks the momentum to rise, but the good profits of electric furnaces support the demand. Overall, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [2][9]. Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mills' resumption of production still exists. As mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The sharp rise in the futures market may drive spot - futures and speculative demand to enter the market for procurement. The room for further price cuts in the spot market is limited, and the futures price is expected to follow that of coking coal [2][11]. - Coking coal: As the Chinese New Year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking is increasing, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2][12]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to near the cost valuation. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up [3][17]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply pressure of ferrosilicon is not large. The strong rebound of the black chain and the expected increase in electricity costs in Shaanxi support the futures price to maintain a high level in the short term. However, if the spot price rises significantly due to the influence of the futures, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate after profit repair, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear. Caution should be exercised regarding the upside space of the futures price [3][19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply exceeds demand. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3][6][13]. - Soda ash: The overall supply exceeds demand. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of oversupply will intensify further, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][6][16]. Other Information - Steel: The cost and sentiment provide support, and the futures price is strong. The spot market transactions have improved, and the profitability of steel mills has improved. However, in the off - season, the demand is facing downward pressure, and the inventory removal speed has slowed down. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely at a low level, and attention should be paid to the pre - festival restocking rhythm [8]. - Commodity Index: On January 7, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities rose. The special index, including the Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, and Industrial Products Index, also increased. The steel industry chain index had significant gains, with a daily increase of 3.33%, a 5 - day increase of 2.82%, a 1 - month increase of 4.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.21% [106][107].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides short - term evaluations of multiple commodities on January 8, 2026 [2] Group 2: Commodity - Specific Key Points Steel - On January 7, domestic steel markets mostly rose, with Tangshan steel billet price up 50 yuan to 2980 yuan/ton, and some steel mills raising rebar prices by 30 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm rebar increased by 28 yuan/ton. After the fourth round of coke price cuts at the beginning of the month and high - priced iron ore, steel costs slightly decreased, and some steel mills resumed production. With the rise of coke and iron ore futures, steel prices rebounded. Due to the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season, the rebound space may be limited, and prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term [2] Natural Rubber - Thai raw material prices stopped falling and rebounded, while domestic rubber factories faced losses. As of January 4, 2026, Chinese natural rubber social inventory increased, with dark - colored rubber up 3% and light - colored rubber up 1.3%. Most tire companies controlled production flexibly, with finished - product inventory rising and raw - material procurement being cautious. Technically, there was insufficient follow - up capital. It is expected to fluctuate widely, with strong pressure at 16,300 yuan/ton [3] Iron Ore - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 561,000 tons to 1.1583 million tons. Port inventory continued to rise, but with the recovery of steel mill profits and iron - water output, demand was supported, and steel mills continued to replenish inventory slightly. The supply - demand pattern is loose, but the market expects marginal improvement in the short term, and prices may fluctuate strongly [5] Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal - washing plants increased by 0.3% to 35.4%, and the daily output of clean coal increased by 300 tons to 26,100 tons, while the inventory decreased by 94,000 tons to 319,700 tons. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, there may be few transactions before the festival, and prices are likely to fall after the festival, so it is recommended to operate cautiously [5] Live Pigs - On January 7, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.2%. The pig price in the north was stronger and stable in the south, with reduced supply in some northern weight segments supporting prices. The market has a strong bullish sentiment, and short - term long positions are recommended, while focusing on farmers' slaughter volume and sow culling [6] Soybean Meal - On January 7, domestic soybean meal prices rose. Oil mills and traders were bullish, and some downstream companies increased long - term contract purchases. However, with the rapid recovery of oil - mill operations, inventory may accumulate, limiting price increases. Short - term participation is recommended, and prices will face pressure if import supply increases and demand does not improve [6] Palm Oil - MPOA data showed that December Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.64% to 1.84 million tons. Indonesia may confiscate 5 million hectares of oil - palm plantations in 2026, causing market concerns. The short - term market sentiment is bullish, and short - term long positions are recommended, while paying attention to the impact of crude oil on palm oil [7] Crude Oil - As of January 2, 2026, US crude oil inventory decreased, gasoline inventory increased, and daily output decreased slightly. The US reached an agreement with Venezuela to import up to $2 billion of crude oil, and international oil prices continued to fall. With frequent geopolitical conflicts and oversupply, short - term trading is advisable [8] PTA - Polyester inventory is still low. PTA is expected to accumulate inventory in Q1, and some polyester factories plan to reduce production. PX supply is relatively loose, and PTA processing fees are expected to improve in the long - term. Short - term observation is recommended [8] Copper - Workers at Mantoverde Copper Mine in Chile continued to strike, and the mine was almost completely shut down. Copper prices entered high - level consolidation after reaching new highs. The Fed has internal differences on interest - rate cuts, and the supply is worried, while high prices have suppressed consumption. Copper prices may not peak yet, but short - term volatility may increase [9] Methanol - Methanol port inventory increased, production - enterprise inventory and orders increased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The domestic methanol market was weak, and the port basis weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash rose, production decreased, and factory inventory decreased. The float - glass market was stable, with slightly decreased production and inventory. The domestic soda - ash market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10][11] PVC - PVC prices rose, capacity utilization increased, and social inventory increased. Supply is abundant, but demand is weak both domestically and abroad, and prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [11] Silver - US employment data was weak, increasing economic pressure and negative factors for silver. The market expects no Fed interest - rate cut in January, and silver may follow gold in high - level fluctuations [12] Long - term Treasury Bonds - The central bank conducted a 1.1 trillion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation, which was an equal - amount roll - over. Market expectations of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts may be postponed. Short - term funds decreased, which is beneficial to the bond market, and the bond market's oscillation may increase [12] Gold - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in January is 92%. The short - term upward momentum of gold is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term. The interaction between gold and silver should be noted [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that coking coal and coke futures have experienced significant price increases, with multiple contracts reaching their daily limit, indicating strong market demand and bullish sentiment in the coal sector [1][3][6] - The A-share coal sector saw substantial gains, with companies like Dayou Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal hitting their daily price limits, reflecting investor confidence in the coal market [1] - Coking coal futures main contracts surged by 8%, reaching a new high since November of the previous year, while coke futures also saw notable increases, with main contracts rising by 3.52% [3] Group 2 - A report indicated that the Yulin city government in Shaanxi province announced a reduction in coal production capacity by 1.9 million tons due to insufficient supply guarantees for electricity coal, affecting 26 out of 52 coal mines [4] - Despite the reduction in production capacity, industry insiders believe the actual market impact will be limited, as the reduced capacity represents only 3% of Yulin's projected coal output for 2025 [5] - The market is currently sensitive to positive news, which has overshadowed negative fundamental factors, leading to increased speculation about coal production and supply [5][6] Group 3 - Analysts noted that the recent price increases in black commodities, including coking coal, are driven by improved macroeconomic expectations and a recovery in steel mill profits, leading to increased raw material inventory replenishment [6][7] - The current inventory levels for steel mills and coking plants indicate that there is still room for replenishment, with iron ore and coking coal inventory days at 31.88 and 12.75 days, respectively [7] - The first quarter is typically a supply off-season, which may lead to a temporary supply-demand mismatch, potentially supporting prices in the short to medium term [7][8]

Supply Side - The prices of coking coal and coke have surged due to a significant reduction in supply, driven by strict safety inspections and production checks in major coal-producing regions as the year-end approaches [1] - Many coal mines have completed their production targets for the year and are shutting down operations early, leading to expectations of decreased output in the coming months [1] - High-quality coking coal, which is already scarce, has seen improved transaction volumes, further supporting price increases [1] Demand Side - Downstream enterprises, particularly coking and steel plants, are increasing their procurement needs as they prepare for winter storage, leading to a rise in demand for coking coal and coke [2] - Concerns about a potential fourth round of price cuts for coke have diminished, boosting the willingness of coking plants to purchase coking coal [2] - Increased heating demand due to lower temperatures in the central and eastern regions after New Year's Day has further elevated overall coal consumption [2] Market Dynamics - The futures market has seen a strong performance, with the main coking coal contract hitting the limit up, which has positively influenced market sentiment and attracted more capital into the market [2] - The entire black series sector, including iron ore and rebar, has also experienced price increases, creating a synergistic effect that enhances the upward momentum of coking coal and coke prices [2] - Positive news, such as price increases announced by major steel mills and local policies encouraging compliance in steel production, has bolstered confidence in the black industry chain [3] Inventory and Policy - As the new year approaches, coal mine production is expected to slightly recover, but there are concerns about poor sales and inventory accumulation at ports [5] - The overall inventory levels across various sectors, including washing plants, coking enterprises, coal mines, ports, and steel mills, have shown a slight increase [5] - The policy focus remains on ensuring stable coal supply for power plants, indicating a continued emphasis on managing coal supply dynamics [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the short - term market expects marginal improvement in supply - demand, and the iron ore price is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [2]. - The current background of crude oil is supply surplus despite frequent geopolitical conflicts, and short - term trading is recommended [3]. - Due to increased supply and reduced demand in the steel market, and unstable cost support, but boosted by macro sentiment, steel prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. - Silicon iron is expected to fluctuate around the cost valuation due to the double - weak supply and demand in the off - season [5]. - The overall supply of live pigs is loose, and short - term long positions are recommended while paying attention to the slaughter volume and sows culling [6]. - The short - term price of soybean meal is supported by cost and will fluctuate strongly, but may be pressured later [6]. - For palm oil, short - term long positions are recommended as the short - term market is bullish, and attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil on oils [7]. - Copper prices are expected to maintain a volatile and strong pattern in the short term, but the risk of correction should be vigilant [8]. - For PTA, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term after long positions take profits [8]. - For natural rubber, it is advisable to go long at low prices in the short term [9]. - Methanol is expected to run strongly in the short term [10]. - Polypropylene is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. - Soda ash is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [12]. Summary by Variety Iron Ore - From December 29, 2025 - January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment was 3213.7 million tons, a decrease of 463.4 million tons from the previous period. The shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2742.7 million tons, a decrease of 316.9 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2824.7 million tons, an increase of 96.9 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2756.4 million tons, an increase of 155.0 million tons [2]. Crude Oil - As of January 2, 2026, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 4.9 million barrels. The sanctions on Venezuela have affected its oil production and shipping [3]. Steel - On January 6, 2026, the domestic steel market fluctuated weakly. The price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan was stable at 2930 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities was 3308 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5]. Silicon Iron - The weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 18481.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.27%. The weekly output was 98900 tons, a slight increase of 400 tons. The weekly demand - to - supply ratio rose to 18.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34% [5]. Live Pigs - On January 6, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork in national agricultural product markets was 17.99 yuan/kg, a 0.2% increase from the previous day. The national pig price was stronger in the north and weaker in the south [6]. Soybean Meal - On January 6, 2026, the domestic soybean meal spot prices generally increased, with prices in Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong rising by 20 - 40 yuan/ton [6]. Palm Oil - From January 1 - 5, 2026, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 34.70% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.04%, and the output decreased by 34.48% [7]. Copper - The second - phase project of Mirador Copper Mine is expected to be postponed. Copper prices were driven up by geopolitical turmoil and mine - end disturbances, but the risk of correction should be vigilant [8]. PTA - The PTA load reached 72.5% (- 0.7%). The 1 - quarter inventory accumulation expectation of PTA is enhanced, and the self - driving force is limited [8]. Natural Rubber - The price of Thai raw material rubber latex was 55 Thai baht/kg, and cup rubber was 51.5 Thai baht/kg. As of January 4, 2026, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased [9]. Methanol - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 94200 tons, an increase of 15700 tons. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate was 90.23%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74% [10]. Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene was 6253 yuan/ton, flat from the previous day. The capacity utilization rate was 74.88%, a decrease of 1.05% from the previous day [11]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1232 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The weekly output was 697100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.08% [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation", with some varieties having specific ratings such as "oscillation", "oscillation - biased upward", and "oscillation - biased downward" [5] Core Viewpoints - The central bank's emphasis on promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery has led to a warm macro - sentiment. There are still expectations of hot metal复产 and pre - holiday restocking, with iron ore prices remaining strong and coal and coke prices recovering from lows. The fundamentals of steel in the off - season have limited highlights, but cost support is strong, and the futures prices have rebounded from lows. The glass and soda ash futures follow the sector and perform strongly [1] - In the off - season, the fundamentals have limited highlights. Before the Spring Festival, continue to focus on the downstream restocking intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and furnace material prices still have the potential to rise from lows, but the upside space is restricted by steel mill profits [5] Summary by Category Iron Element - Iron ore: The port inventory is continuously accumulating, and steel mills' restocking is slow. There is an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. The复产 of hot metal and pre - holiday restocking support the ore price, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1] - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel lacks upward momentum, but the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, which supports demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, the coke supply - demand structure may gradually tighten. The space for further spot price cuts is limited, and the futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal [2] - Coking coal: As the year approaches, the intensity of winter restocking gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still upward momentum in futures and spot prices [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The pattern of loose supply and demand for manganese silicon continues, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price may gradually fall back to the cost valuation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the upstream supply pressure of ferrosilicon has been relieved, and the market's bullish sentiment has increased. The short - term futures price is expected to remain high. However, if the spot price is significantly adjusted upwards due to the influence of futures, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate after profit repair, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear [3] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][4] - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [2] Specific Varieties - Steel: The cost is strong, and the futures price has rebounded from lows. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak. Although the fundamentals of rebar still have resilience and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils still exists, with the resumption of production by steel mills and winter restocking, cost support is strong, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [7][8] - Iron ore: The market sentiment is strong, and the futures and spot prices are rising. The supply side has expectations of disturbances, and the demand side has an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. The port inventory is accumulating, and steel mills' restocking is slow. The ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - Scrap steel: Steel mills' arrivals are at a low level, and the price oscillates. The supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, so the price is expected to oscillate [10] - Coke: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures price first weakens and then strengthens. The cost side has stabilized, and the futures are expected to oscillate following coking coal [12][13] - Coking coal: The online auctions show mixed results, and the night - session futures of commodities generally rise. As the year approaches, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and there is upward momentum in prices [14] - Glass: The commodity sentiment has recovered, and the valuation premium has rebounded. The supply has expectations of disturbances, and the inventory is moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [15] - Soda ash: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the sentiment drives the valuation to repair. The supply and demand are in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term and the price center will decline in the long run [17] - Manganese silicon: The upstream supply pressure remains high, and attention should be paid to the guidance of steel tender prices. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the futures price may fall back to the cost valuation in the medium term [18] - Ferrosilicon: The electricity cost in Shaanxi is increasing, and the market's bullish sentiment is rising. The upstream supply pressure has been relieved, but attention should be paid to the potential resurgence of supply pressure [20]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For coke, it should be treated with a volatile mindset, with the coke index ranging from 1530 - 1750. The supply is expected to be weakly stable in January, demand will improve month - on - month, and steel mills' winter storage replenishment may support prices [6][7]. - For coking coal, it should also be treated with a volatile mindset, with the coking coal index ranging from 990 - 1170. The domestic coal mine supply is expected to be weakly stable in January, and the demand may pick up slightly with the resumption of steel mills' production, but the recovery space is limited. Attention should be paid to winter storage replenishment [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Coke - **Price**: In December, the four rounds of coke price cuts were successively implemented, and the spot price was under pressure and fluctuated downward. As of December 31, the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1450 yuan/ton, the same as at the end of November. The FOB price of first - grade metallurgical coke was weakly running, at 218 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton compared with the end of November [15]. - **Supply**: Currently, coke enterprises' profits are negative, production enthusiasm has declined, and coke production has decreased. Steel mills' coke production has increased. In January, affected by environmental protection restrictions and with profits remaining slightly in the red, coke production is expected to be weakly stable [28]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand continued to be weak in December, steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate declined, and iron - making production decreased significantly, putting pressure on coke demand. In January, some steel mills are expected to resume production, and iron - making production is expected to increase slightly, so the demand side will improve month - on - month [31]. - **Import and Export**: In November 2025, coke exports were 717,800 tons, a decrease of 9,600 tons month - on - month; imports were 7.5 tons, a decrease of 4.59 tons month - on - month. The current import and export volume is at the median level of the same period [35]. - **Inventory**: In December, steel mills' inventory increased, and coke enterprises continued to accumulate a small amount of inventory with little pressure. In January, steel mills are expected to replenish inventory, and coke enterprises may face inventory accumulation pressure. Port inventory is at a relatively high level, and the total coke inventory is at the median level of the same period. Steel mills' winter storage replenishment may support coke prices [39]. - **Basis and Spread**: As of December 31, the basis of the May contract was - 99, an increase of 38 compared with the end of November; the spread between the May - September contracts was - 75.5, a decrease of 9 compared with the end of November. The basis strengthened, and the spread weakened. The current basis is at a low level in the same period over the years [43]. Coking Coal - **Price**: As of December 31, the self - pick - up price of Meng 5 clean coal in Tangshan was 1320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton compared with the end of November. The prices of main coking coal and blending coking coal were both weakly running [48]. - **Supply**: In December, coal mine supply was at a low level in the same period over the years. After the New Year's Day holiday, coal mine supply is expected to recover, but due to weak spot prices and poor demand, production in January is expected to remain low. After New Year's Day, Mongolian coal customs clearance has recovered and is currently at a high level. Australian coal import profit has turned negative, and imports are expected to decline [53][70]. - **Demand**: In December, after the fourth round of coke price cuts, coke enterprises' profits turned from positive to negative, and their demand for coking coal weakened. In January, with the expected resumption of steel mills' production, coking coal demand may pick up, but the recovery space is limited due to the off - season of steel demand [57]. - **Import and Export**: In November 2025, coking coal imports were 10.73 million tons, an increase of 138,200 tons month - on - month; exports were 133,500 tons, an increase of 132,000 tons month - on - month. Current import profit is acceptable, and imports are at a relatively high level [61]. - **Inventory**: Coke enterprises' and steel mills' inventories are expected to increase due to winter storage replenishment. Coke enterprises' inventory is at a low level, and steel mills' inventory is at the median level in the same period over the years. Coal mine inventory has increased month - on - month and is at a high level. Port inventory has increased and is at the median level in the same period. The total coking coal inventory has increased [80]. - **Basis and Spread**: As of December 31, the basis of the May contract was - 18, a decrease of 34 compared with the end of November; the spread between the May - September contracts was - 72, a decrease of 3 compared with the end of November. The basis and spread both weakened. The different months of coking coal show a contango structure [84].