Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **gold market** and its dynamics in relation to **U.S. economic policies** and **global demand trends** for gold, particularly focusing on **gold ETFs** and **central bank purchases**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold ETF Demand and Price Movement**: In the first half of 2024, global gold ETF demand led to an increase of approximately **397 tons**, reflecting a core avoidance of U.S. tariff policy risks, especially after the April tariff adjustments [1][4] 2. **Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies**: The fluctuating U.S. gold bar tariff policies significantly affected spot trade and market sentiment, with concerns about physical delivery risks on the COMEX exchange arising in early August [1][5] 3. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions**: The Federal Reserve is expected to consider a **preventive rate cut** in September, which may not be substantial but could influence short-term gold market dynamics [1][6][10] 4. **Speculative Positions and Inflation Expectations**: Speculative positions have less impact on gold prices this year, correlating positively with long-term U.S. inflation expectations, contrasting with previous years [1][7] 5. **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central bank gold purchases totaled approximately **415 tons** in the first half of the year, a **21% decrease** year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in demand that has affected price trends [1][7] 6. **Market Adjustments and Volatility**: The gold market has entered a period of adjustment and low volatility, with ETF inflows decreasing significantly in July compared to earlier months [1][4][8] Additional Important Insights 1. **Geopolitical Factors**: The Asian market has become a significant contributor to gold demand following tariff changes, but demand has cooled since May due to tariff reductions [1][4] 2. **Historical Context of Gold Demand**: The current situation mirrors past periods of heightened gold demand during geopolitical tensions, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][4] 3. **Future Outlook on Gold Prices**: The potential for further upward movement in gold prices exists if U.S. economic conditions worsen, but the sustainability of such trends remains uncertain [1][11][12] 4. **Market Sentiment and Trading Opportunities**: The current economic data and interest rate expectations may create short-term trading opportunities, but long-term risks related to U.S. economic growth need to be monitored [1][10][13] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the gold market in relation to economic policies and global demand trends.

Core Viewpoint - The British economy demonstrated unexpected resilience in Q2, with GDP growth of 0.3%, alleviating the urgency for the Bank of England to cut interest rates [1] Economic Performance - The GDP growth of 0.3% in Q2 exceeded market expectations, providing support for the British pound [1] - Current market expectations indicate that the Bank of England is likely to maintain interest rates during the monetary policy meetings in September and December [1] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Bank of England is expected to maintain a cautious stance on interest rates for the remainder of 2025, balancing economic growth support and inflation control [1] - Analysts suggest that this prudent monetary policy will continue to support the British pound in the medium to long term, especially amid diverging monetary policies of major global central banks [1] Currency Trends - The British pound against the US dollar is on an upward trend, approaching key short-term resistance levels of 1.3588 and 1.3618 [1] - The currency has broken through the psychological level of 1.3500, supported by the 55-day moving average, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3541, signaling bullish momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to stronger-than-expected U.S. PPI data, cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts, and a temporary easing of geopolitical risks following the U.S.-Russia summit [3][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose by 0.9%, significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.2%, marking the largest monthly increase since June 2022 [3][4]. - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.9%, well above the anticipated 0.3%, indicating persistent supply chain pressures and rising service prices [4][6]. - Initial jobless claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, lower than the expected 228,000, suggesting a robust labor market and reinforcing the Fed's stance on maintaining high interest rates [7][8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve officials expressed caution regarding interest rate cuts, with Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasizing the need for more data to confirm inflation trends [5][6]. - The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September dropped from 50% to 30% following these comments, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields [5][6]. - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 5.6 basis points to 4.2326%, further pressuring gold prices as investors preferred fixed-income assets over non-yielding gold [5][6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska became a focal point, with initial threats from Trump easing during discussions, which alleviated market concerns over the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [6][7]. - The easing of geopolitical tensions led to a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.04% to a record high [6][7]. - The International Energy Agency's warning of an oil supply surplus contributed to a decline in oil prices, reducing inflationary pressures and further diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards bearish for gold, with technical indicators suggesting a continuation of the downward trend [9]. - Gold prices are currently trading below the 5-day moving average of 3344, indicating a potential move towards the lower Bollinger Band at 3281 [9]. - The recommendation for trading strategy is to consider short positions on rebounds, reflecting the prevailing bearish outlook [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by upcoming U.S. CPI data and changing expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a potential for both bullish and bearish movements in the near term [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices experienced volatility, testing the $3400 level multiple times, with a peak at $3409, the highest since July 24 [2]. - The market is currently assessing the implications of U.S. economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report, which has led to a reevaluation of interest rate expectations [1][2]. - Analysts remain bullish on gold prices despite recent fluctuations, with a focus on geopolitical events and Federal Reserve officials' comments [2][3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The current support level for gold is around $3380, which has been tested multiple times without breaking, indicating strong bullish sentiment [3][5]. - The overall trend remains upward, with higher lows being established since the low of $3268, suggesting continued strength in the market [5]. - Short-term strategies suggest a preference for buying on dips around $3375-$3380 and selling on rallies near $3410-$3420 [4][5]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes selling on rallies between $3415-$3420 with a target of $3400-$3390, and buying on dips around $3375-$3380 with a target of $3400-$3410 [4]. - Emphasis on risk management, including setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses [4][6]. - The market is advised to remain cautious and responsive to real-time data and trends, with a focus on maintaining proper position sizes and stop-loss measures [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Stephen Miran to fill the vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board may influence future interest rate policies, with expectations leaning towards a more accommodative monetary stance [1][4] Group 1: Nomination Details - Stephen Miran, a Harvard-trained economist with extensive experience in fiscal and trade policy, has been nominated to temporarily fill the Federal Reserve Board vacancy left by a departing member [1] - The previous member's term was set to end in January next year, and Miran's confirmation could take several weeks to two months [4] Group 2: Market Implications - If Miran's appointment strengthens market expectations for future interest rate cuts, the US dollar may face downward pressure, while non-USD currencies like the euro and yen could gain support [4] - The recent Federal Reserve meeting saw a rare occurrence of multiple board members voting against maintaining the interest rate, indicating potential shifts in policy dynamics [1] Group 3: Future Considerations - Miran's background and policy orientation may provide new insights for the foreign exchange market, influencing long-term interest rate curves and the yields on dollar assets [4] - Investors are advised to monitor Miran's confirmation process, public statements, and economic data changes to adjust their foreign exchange trading strategies accordingly [4]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices showed insufficient upward momentum and retreated, with the market adopting a short-light positioning strategy [1] - The upcoming week will face multiple significant risk events, including international trade dynamics, central bank interest rate decisions, and key economic data from the US [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% during its meeting on July 30, despite strong expectations for a rate cut in September [1] - The two-year Treasury yield slightly increased to 3.926%, indicating subtle adjustments in market interest rate expectations [1] - Gold prices are highly sensitive to interest rate expectations, and a clear signal of rate cuts from the Fed could weaken the dollar, providing upward momentum for gold prices [1] - Current market expectations favor the Fed maintaining stable rates, coupled with a strong dollar, which poses downward pressure on gold prices [1] Geopolitical Factors - Trump set a 10 to 12-day ultimatum for Russia to make progress in the Ukraine conflict, threatening sanctions and tariffs, which provoked a strong response from Russia [2] - The deteriorating situation in the Middle East, particularly Israel's military actions in Gaza, has increased demand for gold as a safe haven [2] - The UN reported that over half of Gaza's population faces severe food insecurity, raising international concern [2] - The complex geopolitical landscape diminishes hopes for peace, potentially increasing gold's safe-haven demand [2] Market Performance - The US bond market and stock market dynamics provide important context for gold price movements [2] - On July 28, US Treasury prices fell, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rising to 4.414% and 4.962%, respectively, reflecting optimistic market sentiment regarding the global economic outlook [2] - The strong performance of the stock market, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, indicates investor preference for risk assets, which further compresses gold's attractiveness [3] - The upcoming earnings season and key economic data releases, including PCE inflation and employment reports, may introduce new market volatility [3] Technical Analysis - Gold is currently facing multiple challenges, including a strong dollar, rising risk appetite, and increasing real interest rates [3] - The technical level of $3,300 for gold is at risk, and if breached, it may test the support level of $3,250 [3] - Two key variables to watch are the Fed's policy statement and potential setbacks in US-China trade negotiations [3] - The current spot prices are approximately $3,315 per ounce for gold and $38.11 per ounce for silver [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing down 0.33% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing down 1.71%. The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, while the risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations still exist; the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectations of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be weak in gold and strong in silver in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. The CFTC net long position in silver and the iShare Silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Price Performance**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $3338.50 per ounce, down $32.80 (-0.97%); London gold was at $3343.50 per ounce, down $22.35 (-0.66%); Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 774.78 yuan per gram, down 2.54 yuan (-0.33%); Gold T + D closed at 771.58 yuan per gram, down 2.03 yuan (-0.26%) [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold's position was 489,423 lots (100 ounces per lot), an increase of 46,279 lots (10.44%); Shanghai Gold's main contract position was 209,675 lots (kilograms per lot), down 2,176 lots (-1.03%); Gold TD's position was 207,044 lots (kilograms per lot), down 2,086 lots (-1.00%). LBMA's gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 13 tons (-1.08%); Shanghai Gold's inventory was 18 tons, up 0.28 tons (1.57%) [2] - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies' members in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhongcai Futures ranked first with 36,411 lots, an increase of 1,769 lots. Among the top 10 net short positions, Jinrui Futures ranked first with 3,733 lots, an increase of 225 lots [3] 3.2 Silver - **Price Performance**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $38.33 per ounce, down $0.96 (-2.44%); London silver was at $38.74 per ounce, down $0.29 (-0.74%); Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 9,212 yuan per kilogram, down 180 yuan (-1.92%); Silver T + D closed at 9,186 yuan per kilogram, down 186 yuan (-1.98%) [5] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver's position was 173,679 lots (5000 ounces per lot), an increase of 2,205 lots (1.29%); Shanghai Silver's main contract position was 5,976,315 lots (kilograms per lot), down 786,090 lots (-11.62%); Silver TD's position was 3,447,542 lots (kilograms per lot), an increase of 67,342 lots (1.99%). The total visible inventory was 41,850 tons, an increase of 54 tons (0.13%) [5] - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies' members in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, CITIC Futures ranked first with 40,772 lots, an increase of 2,153 lots. Among the top 10 net short positions, Jinrui Futures ranked first with 10,982 lots, a decrease of 1,593 lots [6] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points; the discount rate was 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) was 4.40%, down 0.25 percentage points; the Fed's total assets were $6,708.939 billion, down $0.1672 billion (-0.00%); M2's year - on - year growth rate was 4.54%, up 0.37 percentage points [7] - **Inflation**: The year - on - year CPI was 2.70%, up 0.30 percentage points; the month - on - month CPI was 0.30%, unchanged; the year - on - year core CPI was 2.90%, up 0.10 percentage points; the month - on - month core CPI was 0.30%, up 0.10 percentage points; the year - on - year PCE price index was 2.34%, up 0.15 percentage points; the year - on - year core PCE price index was 2.68%, up 0.10 percentage points [8][9] - **Economic Growth**: The annualized year - on - year GDP growth rate was 1.90%, down 1.00 percentage points; the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate was - 0.50%, down 2.90 percentage points; the unemployment rate was 4.10%, down 0.10 percentage points; the monthly change in non - farm payrolls was 147,000, an increase of 3,000 [9] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index was 132.88, unchanged; the VIX index was 15.22, up 0.29 (1.94%); the CRB commodity index was 302.25, down 2.12 (-0.70%); the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1628, down 0.0184 (-0.26%) [10] 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability that the federal funds rate will be in the range of 300 - 325 basis points in the meeting on July 30, 2025, is 3.1%, and the probability of 325 - 350 basis points is 96.9%. As time goes on, the probability distribution of the federal funds rate in different ranges shows certain changes [11]

Core Insights - The number of bidders at auctions across Australia has reached the highest level in the past 18 months, adding momentum to the upcoming traditional spring season [1][3]. Group 1: Auction Activity - In the last month, the average number of active bidders per auction property in Australia was 3.1, with an average of 4.7 registered bidders, marking the highest auction activity since January 2024 [3]. - In June, Victoria had an average of 3.7 registered bidders and 2.9 actual bidders, while New South Wales had 4.8 registered and 2.9 actual bidders [3]. - The peak auction activity occurred in September 2021, with an average of 4.1 bidders and 8.4 registered bidders, coinciding with historically low interest rates and heightened trading activity due to COVID-19 uncertainties [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Limited housing supply has created a sense of reduced choices for buyers, while optimistic interest rate expectations have encouraged more participation in auctions [6]. - The expectation of potential further interest rate cuts this year has bolstered buyer confidence, prompting decisive action in the market [6]. - Despite more registered bidders in New South Wales, the actual number of bidders remained stable, indicating that Sydney buyers are more proactive compared to those in Melbourne, where economic uncertainties and tax policies have dampened urgency [6]. Group 3: Buyer Behavior - There is a resurgence of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) among buyers, particularly in desirable areas, as they observe others making decisive bids [8]. - Current bidders are characterized by clear plans and thorough property evaluations, contrasting with the previous presence of spontaneous bidders [8]. - The competitive atmosphere of auctions is driving hesitant buyers from the past 18 months to actively participate, indicating a return to a more vibrant market [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recent criticism of the Fed Chair by Trump and the defense of central bank independence by the Treasury Secretary have increased market divergence on the future interest - rate path, weakening dollar confidence and boosting the appeal of gold as a non - interest - bearing asset. Uncertainty in interest - rate expectations has solidified the demand for safe - havens. The agreement between the US and Japan on tariff cuts initially boosted the dollar and Treasury yields, but the subsequent decline was quickly absorbed by the gold price. Multiple investment banks have raised their gold price forecasts for the year to between $3600 and $4000. The underperformance of the US in multiple economic indicators has limited the upward momentum of the dollar and yields, providing macro - environmental support for high gold prices. Geopolitical risks may trigger a rapid inflow of safe - haven funds. Future economic data and the Fed's stance at the meeting will determine the trends of Treasury yields and the dollar, which in turn will affect the gold price. It is recommended to maintain the view of buying on dips, while being cautious of short - term correction risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 778.74 yuan/gram, down 14.16 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9386 yuan/kg, down 106 yuan. The main - contract positions of Shanghai gold were 213,456 lots, down 8931 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 459,484 lots, down 18,795 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract were 160,396 lots, down 1408 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 135,258 lots, up 1070 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 29,358 kg, up 501 kg; that of silver was 1,188,721 kg, up 239 kg [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 787.97 yuan/gram, up 6.47 yuan; the spot price of silver was 9419 yuan/kg, up 105 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.93 yuan/gram, down 1.59 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 73 yuan/kg, up 6 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings were 954.8 tons, unchanged; silver ETF holdings were 15,207.82 tons, up 49.45 tons. Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 213,115 contracts, up 10,147 contracts; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 59,448 contracts, up 927 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the total annual global demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.86%, up 1.92 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.23%, up 0.93 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 22.12%, up 0.8 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.12%, up 0.81 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US - Japan tariff negotiation reached an agreement, with the "reciprocal tariff" rate on Japan lowered from 25% to 15%, and Japan will increase imports of US rice. Trump plans to impose 15% - 50% simple tariffs on most other countries and is negotiating with the EU. The EU and the US are moving towards an agreement with a 15% tariff rate on most products. Trump criticized the Fed for lacking "courage" and called for a three - percentage - point interest - rate cut. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged in September is 37.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 61.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 1.6% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are currently in a range-bound fluctuation as the market awaits the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report next Tuesday [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent non-farm payroll data has suppressed further increases in gold prices, as the market has re-priced hawkish expectations regarding interest rates, putting pressure on the precious metal [1] - A weak CPI report could provide a boost to gold prices, while a strong performance may trigger a new wave of selling [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Perspective - From a broader perspective, gold is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's easing policies, which may lead to a continued decline in real yields [1] - However, short-term hawkish re-pricing of rate cut expectations could lead to a pullback in gold prices [1]