Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - Gold and copper prices are experiencing slight upward trends, while oil prices are also on the rise [1][11] - The recent trade agreement between the US and Japan may impact commodity prices positively, particularly for gold [11][6] Group 2: Consumption Trends - New home sales are seeing an expanded decline, while used car sales are stabilizing; however, tourism consumption remains strong [2][3] - The average selling price of home appliances has shown mixed performance year-on-year, with some categories increasing and others decreasing [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Developments - Export activities are slightly weakening, with a decrease in container shipping rates and a drop in scheduled container bookings from China to the US [5][4] - The US and Japan have reached a trade agreement that reduces tariffs from 25% to 15%, which may influence trade dynamics in the region [6] Group 4: Production Insights - Steel prices continue to rise, supported by market sentiment and cost factors, with steel mill profitability improving [9][8] - The glass market is showing signs of improvement, although downstream demand remains weak, limiting price increases [10] Group 5: Price Movements - Domestic pork wholesale prices have risen for three consecutive weeks, while prices for rebar and thermal coal continue to increase [11] - The average occupancy rate of hotels and the average daily rate per available room are both on the rise, indicating a robust tourism sector [3]

Group 1: Commodity Price Forecast - The article predicts that gold and copper prices are experiencing fluctuations upward, while oil prices are on the rise [1] - The gold price has recently declined due to a rebound in June CPI data, a decrease in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, and a strengthening dollar index [12] - The prices of major commodities such as rebar and thermal coal continue to rise, while the price of cement is on a downward trend [11] Group 2: Consumer Market Analysis - New home sales are experiencing an expanded decline, while the sales of used cars are slightly recovering, and the average price of home appliances has mostly decreased year-on-year [3] - Service consumption shows a mixed performance, with a slight increase in foot traffic in commercial areas, but a decline in movie box office revenues [4] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles are declining, with wholesale sales increasing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3] Group 3: Foreign Trade Insights - Export activities are showing signs of weakness, with a decrease in the growth rate of departing ships' cargo weight and a decline in export container freight rates [6] - The shipping volume from China to the U.S. has increased, while U.S. retailers and wholesalers are experiencing a year-on-year decline in inventory levels [7][6] Group 4: Production Trends - The production of rebar is decreasing, and inventory levels are continuing to drop, leading to a rise in prices due to market sentiment and cost support [9] - High temperatures are increasing daily coal consumption at power plants, which is positively impacting market sentiment and leading to a rise in coal prices [10] Group 5: Price Movements - The article notes that the prices of various commodities have shown a decline recently, with specific mention of the continuous rise in domestic pork wholesale prices and the recovery of glass prices [11] - The article highlights the fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly the stability of copper and oil prices amidst geopolitical influences [12]

Economic Resilience - China's foreign trade showed resilience with a 2.9% growth in imports and exports in the first half of the year, despite significant external shocks in the second quarter [3] - In the second quarter, imports and exports grew by 4.5% year-on-year, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3] - Trade dependency on a single country has decreased to single digits, with significant growth in trade with the EU, ASEAN, South Korea, and Japan [3] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth in the first half of the year, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52% [4] - Consumer demand has been steadily released, enhancing market vitality due to ongoing initiatives to boost consumption [6] - Service retail sales increased by 5.3% year-on-year, with growth accelerating by 0.3 percentage points compared to the first quarter [7] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment reached 24.9 trillion yuan, nominally growing by 2.8%, with a real growth rate of 5.3% after adjusting for price changes [9] - Manufacturing investment grew by 7.5%, accounting for 25.2% of total fixed asset investment, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous year [9] - High-tech service industry investment grew by 8.6%, significantly outpacing overall investment growth [9] Innovation and Technology - A series of technological innovations have emerged, with significant breakthroughs in high-speed rail and wind turbine technology [10] - The number of effective invention patent applications reached nearly 5 million, growing by 12.8% [10] - The added value of high-tech manufacturing industries increased by 9.5% in the first half of the year [10] Digital and Green Economy - The digital economy's core industries accounted for about 10% of GDP [11] - Production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for automobiles grew by 36.2% and 53.3% respectively, indicating strong growth in the green industry [12] Global Economic Context - Despite global economic growth forecasts being downgraded by institutions like the World Bank and OECD, predictions for China's economic growth remain stable, with several international banks raising their forecasts for China [13]

Group 1: Foreign Trade Data - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - Private enterprises showed outstanding performance, with import and export value reaching 12.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, accounting for 57.3% of China's foreign trade [1] - The export scale of high-tech products, new three categories of products, and self-owned brand products from private enterprises reached historical highs for the same period [1] Group 2: Chemical Industry Developments - Chongqing Yixiang Chemical Co., Ltd. is the largest producer of methyl methacrylate (MMA) in China, breaking the long-standing technological and product monopoly held by Japan and Europe [7] - The company achieved its first export of 20 million USD in 2023, showcasing its technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrades [7] - MMA is widely used in the production of organic glass, automotive and construction coatings, and is a key raw material for optical fibers and optical lenses [9] Group 3: Industry Cluster and Innovation - The chemical industry benefits from extended industrial chains, leading to higher product added value [11] - Chongqing's Changshou district has over 100 new materials enterprises, forming a core industrial cluster in natural gas chemical new materials, silicon-based new materials, and new energy materials [11] - The collaboration among numerous enterprises enhances export capabilities and helps navigate trade barriers, likened to the agility of small boats and the strength of large ships [13]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade maintained stable growth in the first half of the year, with a total import and export value of 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1][3]. Group 1: Import and Export Scale - In the first half of the year, China's import and export scale stabilized at over 20 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [2][3]. - The total import and export value increased by over 600 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, with a second-quarter growth rate of 4.5%, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points from the first quarter [3]. Group 2: Export Performance - The export scale exceeded 13 trillion yuan for the first time in history, achieving a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [4][5]. - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2%, with significant increases in exports of high-end machine tools, ships, and marine engineering equipment [5]. Group 3: Import Trends - Total imports amounted to 8.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, influenced by international trade policy uncertainties and falling commodity prices [6][7]. - The import of high-end machine tools and electronic components saw accelerated growth in the second quarter, indicating a recovery in domestic demand [7][8]. Group 4: Private Enterprises' Role - Private enterprises led foreign trade with a total import and export value of 12.48 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, accounting for 57.3% of China's foreign trade [9][10]. - The number of enterprises with export performance continued to increase, with private enterprises showing strong growth in high-tech product exports [10]. Group 5: Foreign Investment Enterprises - Foreign investment enterprises achieved an import and export value of 6.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, marking five consecutive quarters of growth [11][12]. - The number of foreign investment enterprises with import and export performance reached 75,000, the highest since 2021 [13]. Group 6: Sino-US Trade Relations - In the first half of the year, trade with the United States saw a total value of 2.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, with exports declining by 9.9% [14][15]. - Recent trade talks have led to a recovery in Sino-US trade, with June's trade value showing improvement compared to May [15]. Group 7: Cross-Border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached approximately 1.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with exports growing by 4.7% [16][17].

Core Insights - China's total goods trade import and export reached 21.79 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - Exports amounted to 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, down by 2.7% [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - The import and export scale stabilized above 20 trillion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [2] - In the second quarter, the import and export growth rate accelerated to 4.5%, with all three indicators (import, export, total trade) showing positive growth in June [2] - In June, the total trade volume reached 3.85 trillion yuan, a 5.2% increase, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan (7.2% growth) and imports at 1.51 trillion yuan (2.3% growth) [2] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The export scale surpassed 13 trillion yuan for the first time in history, with a 7.2% year-on-year growth [3] - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2%, with significant increases in high-end machine tools and marine engineering equipment [3] - Private enterprises led exports with 8.52 trillion yuan, an 8.3% increase, while foreign-funded enterprises and state-owned enterprises also saw growth [3] Group 3: Import Trends - Imports totaled 8.79 trillion yuan, down by 2.7%, influenced by international trade policy uncertainties and falling commodity prices [4][5] - The decline in import growth was primarily due to a drop in prices for major commodities like crude oil and iron ore [5] - However, there was a rebound in imports of high-end equipment and consumer goods, driven by domestic economic recovery [5] Group 4: Role of Private and Foreign Enterprises - Private enterprises accounted for 57.3% of total foreign trade, with a 7.3% year-on-year increase in their import and export activities [6] - Foreign enterprises' import and export activities reached 6.32 trillion yuan, a 2.4% increase, marking five consecutive quarters of growth [7] Group 5: Sino-US Trade Relations - Trade with the US saw a decline, with total trade value at 2.08 trillion yuan, down by 9.3% [8] - Recent trade talks have led to a recovery in Sino-US trade, with June figures showing improvement compared to May [8][9] Group 6: Cross-Border E-commerce - Cross-border e-commerce imports and exports reached approximately 1.32 trillion yuan, a 5.7% increase [10] - The growth in cross-border e-commerce highlights its role as a significant trend in international trade [10]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 12 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货6月11日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2506 | 119.450 | 119.590 | 119.720 | 119.640 | 0.270 | 0.23 | ...

增长2.5%，前5月我国外贸保持较强韧性。（新华社） ...

显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 20 期） 频率：每周 目前看，5 月供给形势可能仍较为稳定，需求方面出口和消费相对较好，房地 产投资继续拖累投资整体形势。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 40 ——并购重组新规出台，央企 上市公司加速新兴产业布局和 "两非""两资"资产剥离》 2025-06-03 2、《美国国内政治加剧对外政 策动荡———国际时政周评》 2025-06-02 3、《PPI 或进一步下探——宏 观与大类资产周报》2025-06-02 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 06 月 03 日 如何看待 5 月宏观经济形势 正文目录 | 1、开工率 | | --- | | 2、产能利用率…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

Group 1 - The main shipping index contract increased by 6.00%, currently reported at 2395.4 points, indicating a positive trend in the shipping industry [1] - Following the adjustment of China-US tariff policies, foreign trade enterprises in Xiamen are ramping up production and shipping, with a significant increase in shipping demand to the US [1] - A clothing enterprise in Xiamen reported that over 30% of its foreign trade business is related to the US, highlighting the importance of this market [1] Group 2 - A freight forwarding company in Xiamen noted a surge in daily container movements from 5 to 30, reflecting a "rush to ship" trend for exports to the US [1] - The company also mentioned that booking orders for shipping have been scheduled until the end of the month, indicating strong demand [1] - In Yiwu, a major hub for Christmas goods, production orders have reached a peak, with some companies experiencing warehouse congestion due to high order volumes [1] Group 3 - Data from Yiyu Technology shows that the shipping rate for the Shanghai to Los Angeles route has increased to $3705 per FEU, a 96% rise compared to the previous quote [1] - This significant increase in shipping costs may impact logistics and shipping companies, potentially affecting their profitability [1] - Related Hong Kong-listed companies in the shipping and logistics sector include COSCO Shipping Holdings, COSCO Shipping Development, Pacific Basin Shipping, Orient Overseas International, CIMC, and Sea Harvest International [2]