Report Summary 1. Core View - Treasury bond futures maintained a narrow - range oscillation last week with a slight upward movement throughout the week. The overall implementation of broad credit still needs time, while the trend of broad money remains unchanged. Although treasury bond futures have been oscillating higher recently, the overall trend in the future is still expected to be oscillatory. Attention should be paid to arbitrage strategies, as well as allocation and hedging needs [2]. 2. Section Summaries 2.1. Weekly Focus and Market Tracking - Treasury bond futures contracts oscillated upward this week. The TL contract had a relatively large increase due to fluctuations in the overall market's risk appetite, and the yield curve flattened again. In terms of basis characteristics, the basis trend was stable, and the IRR of the main contract was basically between 1.8 - 1.9, still higher than the funding rate but with reduced cost - effectiveness. Regarding the inter - delivery spread, the 09 - 12 combination rebounded slightly, reflecting a decline in market sentiment. Currently, market liquidity is limited and not suitable for operation. In terms of the curve structure, opportunities for the curve to steepen should be noted [3][5]. 2.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - No specific summarized content provided in the report. 2.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type: private funds increased by 2.15%; foreign capital increased by 2.86%, and wealth management subsidiaries increased by 2.67%. In terms of weekly changes: private funds increased by 1.4%; foreign capital decreased by 3.33%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 3.86% [9].

Group 1 - In May, the national futures market saw a decline in both trading volume and trading value, with a total trading volume of 679 million contracts and a trading value of 54.73 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 4.51% and 1.55% respectively [1] - From January to May, the cumulative trading volume reached 3.337 billion contracts and the cumulative trading value was 286.93 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 15.61% and 21.33% [1] - The trading performance varied across exchanges, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange reporting a trading volume of 197 million contracts and a trading value of 21.13 trillion yuan in May, reflecting a volume decrease of 1.59% but a value increase of 2.18% year-on-year [1][2] Group 2 - The top three futures by trading value included gold, silver, and alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange featured caustic soda, rapeseed oil, and PTA futures [2] - The trading volume leaders were rebar, alumina, and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange leading in glass, PTA, and soda ash futures [2] - The decline in trading activity in May was attributed to reduced volatility in major commodities and weaker demand, particularly in energy, chemicals, and construction materials [2][3] Group 3 - May is traditionally a low season for industrial and some agricultural products, leading to a decrease in hedging activities as enterprises adopted low inventory strategies [3] - Despite the drop in trading scale, the total open interest in the futures market increased by 16.62% at the end of May, with all exchanges except the China Financial Futures Exchange reporting growth [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's total open interest reached 11.26 million contracts, up 14.99% from the previous month [3] Group 4 - Major commodity prices are currently at relatively low levels, encouraging enterprises to engage more in futures hedging and related activities, which has led to an increase in open interest [4] - Improved market sentiment due to the release of macroeconomic policies and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. has attracted more capital into the futures market [4] - The expectation of a rebound in commodity prices and a stable domestic stock market is likely to drive an increase in trading volume in June [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The macro strategy is expected to perform well this week, with a recovery in various asset classes, including Chinese equities, bonds, gold, and oil, indicating a favorable environment for macro strategies [3]. Macro Strategy - The macro strategy is anticipated to show improvement, benefiting from the recent rise in Chinese equities and bonds, as well as overseas assets [3]. - The macro strategy faced challenges in the first half of the year due to the unpredictable nature of Trump's policies, which disrupted the typical low correlation among major asset classes [3]. - Recent trends suggest a return to deep negative correlation among major assets, indicating a more favorable environment for macro strategies moving forward [3]. Quantitative Long Strategy - The quantitative long strategy is expected to yield absolute returns, with stable excess returns due to increased trading volume, surpassing 1 trillion in daily transactions [5]. - Over 50% of stocks are showing upward movement, and market volatility remains within a normal range, supporting alpha generation for quantitative strategies [5]. - However, there is a caution regarding small-cap valuations, which are at a three-year high, indicating potential pullback risks [5]. Subjective Long Strategy - The subjective long strategy is projected to perform well, particularly in growth styles, with some differentiation in specific returns [7]. - The overall market is experiencing a steady upward trend, with positive PMI data and a preference for growth over value stocks [7]. - Continued net inflows from southbound capital are noted, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech performing well, despite high PB valuations [7]. Market Neutral Strategy - The market neutral strategy is expected to remain stable, with consistent excess returns in the equity segment and no significant impact from the hedging side [9]. Stock Index CTA - The stock index CTA strategy is anticipated to perform well in both intraday and daily strategies, with differentiation among products due to signal cycles [12]. Commodity Strategy - The commodity strategy is expected to show a reversal in performance, with mixed results across different segments, particularly in precious metals [15]. - The commodity sector has seen a general upward trend, although volatility remains present, posing challenges for previously dominant short positions [15]. Arbitrage Strategy - The arbitrage strategy, including ETF and options arbitrage, is expected to see slight gains, while commodity arbitrage remains stable [17]. - The ETF market has experienced a slight increase in trading volume, indicating a favorable trend for overall strategy performance [17].

Core Insights - The article predicts the adjustment list for major market index constituents as of June 2025, utilizing refined financial loss identification rules and a review mechanism for securities [1][2] - It highlights significant Alpha return characteristics in the sample combinations of stocks added or removed during index adjustments, particularly through liquidity shock factor grouping [1][2] Market Index ETF Scale - As of April 2025, the scale of various ETFs such as SSE 50, STAR 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index are 170.6 billion, 166.4 billion, 1077.3 billion, 144.1 billion, 140.9 billion, and 115.6 billion respectively [1] - The overall scale of these index ETFs has increased nearly fourfold compared to the end of 2021, indicating a growing trend towards index-based investment [1] Index Adjustment Rules and Historical Testing - The article outlines that the CSI and National Index series are adjusted twice a year, with a high prediction accuracy and coverage rate of around 90% for the CSI 300 index adjustments [2] - It emphasizes the significant Alpha return characteristics observed in the sample combinations during the prediction and announcement periods of index adjustments [2] Arbitrage Strategy Research - Since the second half of 2019, single adjustment absolute returns have been 18.36%, with long-short returns at 23.89% and excess returns at 15.10% [2] - Annual adjustment absolute returns reached 40.09%, with long-short returns at 50.84% and excess returns at 33.47% [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Products**: A-share index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure; short - term treasury bonds may oscillate; precious metals show certain price patterns and trends; the rally of the container shipping index may slow down [2]. - **Industrial Products**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating; iron ore, coke, and other black commodities have different price trends and market situations; various energy and chemical products have different supply - demand and price characteristics [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products such as soybeans, hogs, and sugar have their own market trends and influencing factors [2]. - **Special and New Energy Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic; rubber prices are affected by news; new energy products like lithium carbonate are in a downward trend [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure. A - shares open lower and oscillate with trading volume maintaining at the trillion - level. Suggest selling put options on the support level of IF2506 to earn premiums, or going long on September IM contracts on pullbacks and selling call options with an exercise price of 6400 on September contracts for covered strategies [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term treasury bonds may oscillate, waiting for fundamental guidance. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate between 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on high - frequency economic data and liquidity dynamics [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold forms a "double - top" pattern and oscillates narrowly between 3200 - 3300 US dollars (750 - 770 yuan); silver fluctuates between 32 - 33.5 US dollars (8000 - 8350 yuan). The sold out - of - the - money gold call options can be held; Moody's downgrades the US credit rating, causing declines in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets and a slight increase in precious metals [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The emotional release is sufficient, and the upward momentum may slow down. Consider 8 - 10, 6 - 10 positive spreads, and wait and see for unilateral operations [2]. Industrial - **Steel**: Industrial materials demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Iron ore oscillates between 700 - 745. Coke and coking coal prices are in a downward phase. Suggest long - hot - rolled steel and short - coke or short - coking coal strategies [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Different products have different trends. For example, PX continues to have limited upward momentum; PTA oscillates at a high level between 4600 - 5000; short - fiber prices follow raw materials; ethanol's supply - demand structure improves; styrene has short - term oscillation and medium - term bearishness [2]. Agricultural - Different agricultural products have various market situations. For example, US soybeans oscillate, hogs' futures and spot prices oscillate weakly in the short term, and sugar has positive data from Brazil in late April [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Commodities**: Glass market sentiment is pessimistic, and attention is paid to whether it can break through the 1000 - point level; rubber prices rise slightly due to storage news and can be lightly shorted at the upper end of the 14500 - 15500 range [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Lithium carbonate maintains a downward trend, with the main contract referring to 60,000 - 63,000 yuan; polysilicon futures oscillate with near - term strength and long - term weakness [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The index has stable support below and significant upward breakthrough pressure. The short - term Treasury bonds may fluctuate, and the precious metals market has entered a volatile phase. The shipping index's upward momentum may slow down, and the steel and coal markets are facing price adjustments. The agricultural products market is affected by various factors such as policies and supply - demand relationships [2][3]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The index has stable support below and large upward breakthrough pressure. It is recommended to sell put options at the support level to earn premiums or go long on the September IM contract at low prices and sell call options with a strike price of 6400 in September for a covered strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term Treasury bonds may be in a volatile state. It is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the capital market and economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold has formed a "double - top" pattern and entered a volatile phase. Selling out - of - the - money gold call options can be held. Silver follows gold's fluctuations and has support at $32 (8000 yuan) [2]. Commodity Futures - **Shipping Index Futures**: The emotional release is sufficient, and the upward momentum may slow down. Consider positive spreads for 8 - 10 and 6 - 10 contracts and wait and see for unilateral operations [2]. - **Steel Futures**: The spot market is stabilizing, and there are macro - level benefits. It is recommended to consider long - hot - rolled coil and short - coke or short - coking coal strategies [2]. - **Coal Futures**: Coke prices have entered a new round of price cuts, and coking coal prices may be bottom - hunting. It is recommended to go long on hot - rolled coil and short on coke or coking coal [2]. - **Chemical Futures**: Different chemical products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA have strong supply - demand drivers but limited oil price support. Short - fiber prices follow raw materials, and ethylene glycol has strong short - term support [3]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Different agricultural products are affected by different factors. For example, soybeans are affected by biodiesel policies, and sugar is affected by Brazilian data [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Futures**: Different non - ferrous metals have different price ranges and trends. For example, copper has strong upward pressure, and tin rebounds due to improved macro - sentiment [5]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil is affected by the progress of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and the short - term market is in a weak and volatile state [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance on the market, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Although there are current market issues such as the inverted price difference between fat pigs in the north and south, a decrease in group piglet sales, and a slight increase in pen pressure in May, price increases have exceeded expectations, leading to continued inventory accumulation. The near - term contradictions have not reached the release stage. The macro - sentiment has cooled, and capital interference has decreased. The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Attention should be focused on the arbitrage strategy for the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spread from the normal state. In the medium - to - long - term, continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread and pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The price of Henan's live pig spot is 15,000 yuan/ton, Sichuan's is 14,550 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's is 15,190 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton in Guangdong [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live pig 2507 contract is 13,575 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Market Logic - **Trading Logic**: The trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Focus on the arbitrage strategy for the valuation deviation of the far - month inter - month spread from the normal state. Continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - to - long - term and pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit [3] - **Contract Price Ranges**: The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Futures Trading Data | Contract | Volume (compared to the previous day) | Open Interest (compared to yesterday) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Live Pig 2507 | 3,265 (-1,782) | 28,942 (-950) | | Live Pig 2509 | 13,932 (-5,014) | 71,262 (-92) | | Live Pig 2511 | 1,876 (-2,431) | 29,684 (+74) | [3] 3.4 Futures Price Difference Data | Price Difference Type | Price Difference Value | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Live Pig 2507 Basis | 35 | - | | Live Pig 2509 Basis | 295 | - | | Live Pig 2511 Basis | 5 | - | | Live Pig 7 - 9 Spread | 1,425 | -50 | | Live Pig 9 - 11 Spread | 1,115 | -15 | [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint from the institutions indicates that synthetic rubber is expected to experience a strong upward correction due to improved macroeconomic conditions and cost support from rising crude oil prices [1] - The recent US-China trade negotiations resulted in a significant reduction of tariffs to 10%, which is expected to enhance downstream demand for synthetic rubber, leading to an improved supply-demand dynamic [1] - The market sentiment for butadiene is bullish, with suppliers raising prices, which supports the upward trend of synthetic rubber [1] Group 2 - The br2506 contract is anticipated to show short-term strength, although caution is advised against blindly chasing price increases due to potential risks [2] - Domestic supply of raw materials is currently ample, leading to weaker price support, while inventories for both production enterprises and trading companies are slightly increasing [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire manufacturers has significantly decreased, but a gradual recovery is expected in the short term [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the May Day holiday, there is still a willingness for second - round fattening, but the price difference between fat pigs in the north and south is inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. The near - term contradiction is not in the release stage. The macro - sentiment has cooled, the capital disturbance has decreased, and the trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy of the far - month inter - month spread valuation deviating from the normal state. It is expected that the liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread will gradually increase at the end of May, and attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 15,000 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 50; Sichuan spot price is 14,650 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100; Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 150 [3] - **Futures Prices**: The price of pig 2507 is 13,495 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the price of pig 2509 is 13,925 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the price of pig 2511 is 13,625 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 60 [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of pig 2507 is 5,294 lots, a decrease of 213 from the previous day, and the open interest is 30,668 lots, a decrease of 140 from the previous day; the trading volume of pig 2509 is 26,531 lots, an increase of 4,441 from the previous day, and the open interest is 71,319 lots, a decrease of 2,087 from the previous day; the trading volume of pig 2511 is 3,613 lots, an increase of 111 from the previous day, and the open interest is 29,156 lots, a decrease of 331 from the previous day [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of pig 2507 is 1,505 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 65; the basis of pig 2509 is 1,075 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 65; the basis of pig 2511 is 1,375 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 110; the 7 - 9 spread of pig is - 430 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; the 9 - 11 spread of pig is 300 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 45 [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [- 2,2] for integers, and the strength classification includes weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agreement between the US and the UK on tariff trade has led to a rise in market risk appetite, with the gold price falling by over 2%, the US dollar index strengthening, and the US stock index futures showing a short - term risk preference recovery. However, tariff negotiations remain complex, and the long - term impact is uncertain [2][3][14][17]. - In the commodity market, different sectors have different trends. For example, the steel price continues to decline, the inventory of some metals and energy products shows changes, and the prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand and policy [6][24][41]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US and the UK reached a tariff trade agreement, reducing the US tariff on British - made cars to 10% and the beef tariff close to zero. The gold price fell by over 2%. In the short term, gold is under pressure, but the negotiation is complex, and there is still room for correction [14]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the progress of US trade negotiations, and be aware of the short - term correction risk of gold [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates. The US and the UK reached the first trade agreement since the Trump tariff war, leading to a significant recovery in market risk appetite and a strengthening of the US dollar index. The US dollar index is expected to maintain a short - term rebound [15][17][18]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced a major agreement with the UK. The US House of Representatives Committee will start deliberating on Trump's tax - cut plan next week. The short - term market risk preference recovers, but tariff negotiations tend to be long - term, and it is not recommended to chase high [19][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 158.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 158.6 billion yuan. The current one - sided market opportunities are limited, and attention can be paid to various arbitrage strategies, such as the curve - steepening strategy. The opportunity to steepen the curve has initially emerged, and subsequent changes in capital interest rates should be continuously monitored [21][22][23]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of March 31, Canada's rapeseed ending inventory was 5.8694 million tons, a significant year - on - year decrease. The oil market continued to fluctuate. The short - term palm oil price has reached the support level, and it is recommended to wait for the MPOB report data before operating [24]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil announced the 25/26 sanitary interval schedule. The USDA weekly export sales report met expectations. The domestic soybean meal futures price is expected to fluctuate, and the spot will continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply and demand report on May 12 [25][27][28]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in April decreased by 17.65% year - on - year. In China, the sugar production in Guangxi increased, and the sales rate reached 63.96%, a 6 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. The domestic sugar price has strong resistance to decline in the short term, but the external market is under pressure, and the Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate weakly in the second quarter of 2025. Attention should be paid to the sugar factory's inventory reduction progress [30][33][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Deep - processing enterprises continued to raise prices to promote purchases, but the effect was not good. The overseas cassava starch startup rate decreased seasonally. The CS - C futures spread is expected to have small fluctuations [35][36][37]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline. It is recommended to hold the 07 long positions and pay attention to the 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 positive spread opportunities. If the import auction starts, focus on the transaction rate and price [38]. 2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In April, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 90,000 vehicles, and the national passenger - car market retail sales were 1.791 million vehicles. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 289,700 tons week - on - week. The steel price continued to decline, and the short - term downward space is difficult to open. It is recommended to hold a light position and wait and see in the short term, and use the rebound hedging strategy for the spot [39][40][41]. 2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - After the holiday, the port coal inventory was full, and the coal price may decline rapidly again. It is recommended to pay attention to whether the price can hold at the 600 - yuan level [43]. 2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - FMG's iron ore shipments in the first quarter of 2025 were 46.1 million tons. With the seasonal weakening of demand, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [44][45][46]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market was stable. During the May Day holiday, the supply of coking coal was sufficient, and the second round of coke price increase was postponed. In the short term, it will maintain a volatile trend, and in the long term, it will be weak [47][48]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - In April, the total actual output of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia was 181,500 tons of metal, with a month - on - month increase of 3.62% and a year - on - year increase of 24.34%. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct band operations in the short term [48][49][50]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Several copper - related companies had acquisition and project progress. The UK - US trade agreement may increase market risk appetite and benefit the copper price. The domestic copper inventory continued to decline, supporting the price. It is recommended to conduct band operations in the short term and gradually stop profiting from the positive spread strategy [51][53][54]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Tongwei has no plan to destock through the polysilicon futures delivery. The 06 contract price rebounded after reaching a low point. It is expected that the polysilicon will continue to destock in May. Long positions and positive spreads can continue to be held [55][56][57]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The organic silicon DMC price is expected to fluctuate. The demand for industrial silicon is weak, and it is recommended to partially stop profiting from previous short positions and wait for clear signals before considering bottom - fishing [58]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Liontown received 15 million Australian dollars in support from the Western Australian government, and BYD and Tsingshan Holdings withdrew from the Chilean lithium processing plant plan. In the long term, the lithium carbonate market is in surplus, and the cost support may move down. It is not recommended to chase short positions at the current point, and wait for rebound short - selling opportunities [59][60][62]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead ingot social inventory continued to increase. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spread opportunities [63][64][65]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American and Lundin Mining's zinc production increased in the first quarter of 2025. The zinc social inventory decreased slightly. The short - term zinc price is supported by low inventory and strong spot, but the medium - term demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies and internal - external positive spread opportunities [66][67][68]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume decreased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the inventory increased. The short - term price is expected to maintain a volatile trend [70][71][72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is in an oscillating adjustment phase. In 2025, the overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emission allowances is relatively loose, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [74][75]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased. The PTA price is expected to be oscillatingly strong or continue to rebound in the short term [76][77][78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - China's styrene production increased this week. The styrene price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future. The cost end drags down the price, and the downstream profit expansion space is limited [79][80][81]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On May 8, the caustic soda market in Shandong had an upward transaction, and the enterprise inventory was at a low level. The caustic soda spot price rebounded, but the overall commodity market is weak, and the caustic soda market is difficult to rise significantly [82][83]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market was mainly stable. The short - term pulp market is expected to be oscillatingly weak [84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased. Although the inventory is decreasing and the basis is strengthening, the market expects negative impacts from tariffs, and the PVC performance may continue to be weak [85]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chips increased slightly in some areas. The supply pressure of bottle chips is increasing, and the processing fee is expected to be under pressure [86][87][88]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of May 8, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 1.74%. The soda ash futures price continued to fall, and the market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term and pay attention to the impact of maintenance on the 09 contract [89]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased significantly this week. The glass price continued to fall, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The glass price is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy variables [90][91]. 2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk's EBIT in the first quarter of 2025 was 1.253 billion US dollars. Affected by the peace talks between the Houthi and the US, the European - line futures weakened. It is recommended to treat the market as a wide - range oscillation and wait and see in the short term [92].