Core Viewpoint - Foreign capital remains optimistic about the Chinese stock market, particularly small and mid-cap stocks, despite recent gains in major indices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since the rebound began on April 8, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen over 21%, the Shenzhen Component Index over 27%, and the ChiNext Index over 43% [2]. - The CSI 300 Index has increased by over 19%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have risen by 26.8% and 31.96%, respectively [2]. - The CPO index has shown the strongest performance with a rise of over 123%, while other indices related to light chips, CRO, and rare earths have also seen significant increases [2]. Group 2: Capital Flow and Investment Trends - High net worth individuals have only allocated 22% of their financial assets to funds and stocks, indicating a potential inflow of over 10 trillion yuan into the market [2]. - There are signs of a shift in household savings from bank deposits to stock investments, as indicated by a negative monthly change in household deposits and an increase in non-bank financial institution deposits [3]. - The A-share market has become the most net bought market recently, with a buying ratio of 1.1 times [3]. Group 3: Broker Insights - CICC reports that since May, there have been signs of deposits moving to the stock market, with M1 growth rising to 5.6% in July from 2.3% in May [5]. - The rapid growth of margin accounts at brokerages suggests that deposits are being prepared for market entry, with non-bank deposits increasing by 1.4 trillion yuan in July [6]. - The trading volume in the A-share market has significantly increased, with daily turnover surpassing 2 trillion yuan and margin financing exceeding 2 trillion yuan [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Huaxi Securities believes that the A-share market has ample space and opportunities, supported by strong household savings and a shift in risk appetite among residents [7]. - The potential inflow of household savings into the stock market could be substantial, with estimates suggesting a range of 5 trillion to 7 trillion yuan [6][7]. - The current valuation of A-shares remains reasonable compared to historical levels, indicating potential for further growth [6].

华夏时报记者张萌卢梦雪北京报道 "终于抢到2%以上的大额存单了！" 8月20日，90后投资者小吴告诉记者，由于认为当前存款利率偏低，她已蹲守多家银行的大额存单转让区近半个月。"这周开始，明显感觉转让的大额存单 多了起来。" 小吴最终成功购入某股份银行的大额存单，原年利率为2.1%，但因转让方让利，她的实际年化收益率超过了2.15%。 在农业银行、民生银行等机构APP的大额存单转让区，不少购入不足一个月的大额存单也被挂牌，且通常伴随小幅让利。尽管偶尔能刷到利率大幅高于当 前市场水平的转让产品，但往往上架即"秒没"，抢手程度可见一斑。 记者注意到，近期银行大额存单转让区"热闹"起来。有转让者不惜折价转让，或是将刚购入数日的大额存单火速挂牌，引来不少小吴一样的投资者"蹲 守"。 北京财富管理行业协会特约研究员杨海平向《华夏时报》记者分析称，近期大额存单转让量增加与股市回暖有显著的关联性，他同时判断，在存款利率下 行与股市赚钱效应驱动下，"存款搬家"进入股市的现象在现阶段将会延续。 大额存单"拼手速" 资金跑步入市重现 "大额存单转让随时放出，只要有人转让上面就可以看到。" 8月21日，记者以投资者身份向平安银行咨询 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment reflects a "slow bull" trend, with expectations for the A-share market to continue its upward trajectory for at least another one to two years, despite retail investors' skepticism and anxiety about market peaks [3][6][7]. Market Sentiment - Retail investors are experiencing anxiety and hesitation due to past bear market memories, leading to erratic trading behaviors [5][7]. - There is a significant divide in opinions among retail investors regarding the market's future, with discussions centered around whether the 4000-point mark represents a new beginning or an impending end to the bull market [7][9]. Historical Analysis - Historical data indicates that bull markets often begin amid skepticism and end in excitement, with the "five-year cycle theory" suggesting that significant market lows occur in years ending in 4 and 9 [6][10]. - The analysis of past bull markets shows that the A-share index is expected to maintain an upward trend until at least 2027, based on historical patterns [6][10]. Market Drivers - The current bull market is driven by institutional reforms, optimized capital structures, and economic transitions, differing from previous bull markets that relied heavily on rapid economic growth and corporate profit improvements [10][11]. - The shift in corporate behavior towards dividend distribution rather than reinvestment is seen as a key factor in supporting long-term market value [10][11]. Capital Flow Dynamics - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is emerging, where residents are expected to shift their savings from low-yielding assets to equities, potentially enhancing market liquidity and supporting a sustained upward trend [11][12]. - Analysts suggest that the current environment presents a significant opportunity for equity markets to attract capital as traditional investment avenues like real estate become less favorable [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in non-bank deposits and the shift of funds from fixed-income products to equity markets, driven by the rising stock market and the phenomenon of "deposit migration" [1][3][5]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In the first seven months of the year, RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 9.66 trillion yuan and non-bank financial institution deposits increasing by 4.69 trillion yuan [3]. - In July alone, RMB deposits increased by 500 billion yuan, with household deposits decreasing by 1.11 trillion yuan and non-bank deposits increasing by 2.14 trillion yuan [3]. - The year-on-year comparison shows that in July, household deposits decreased by 7.8 billion yuan while non-bank deposits increased by 1.39 trillion yuan [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Deposit Migration - The migration of deposits is attributed to several factors, including the end of the mid-year bank assessment, a significant return of household deposits to wealth management products, and the recent rise in the stock market [3][4]. - The trend of deposit activation is evident, with M1 growth rising to 5.6% in July, up from 2.3% in May, indicating a shift away from fixed-term deposits [4]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is also linked to the rapid growth of margin accounts at brokerage firms, suggesting that funds are being prepared for entry into the stock market [4]. Group 3: Market Activity and Fund Adjustments - The A-share market has seen a surge in trading activity, with daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan since August, indicating a more active capital market [4]. - A total of 54 funds or asset management products have adjusted their net asset value precision due to large redemptions, reflecting the impact of the shift from fixed-income to equity markets [6][8]. - The recent trend shows that over 70% of newly established funds are equity-based, with many funds ending their fundraising early to quickly enter the market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant increase in trading volume and a shift of deposits from traditional savings to non-bank financial products, indicating a trend of "deposit migration" driven by rising stock market performance and changing investor preferences [1][2][3]. Group 1: Deposit Migration - In July, RMB deposits increased by 500 billion yuan, with household deposits decreasing by 1.1 trillion yuan and non-bank deposits increasing by 2.14 trillion yuan, highlighting a significant shift in deposit behavior [2][3]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is attributed to a growing interest in equity markets, as investors move funds from fixed-income products to stocks and other financial instruments [3][4]. - Historical patterns show that deposit migration often occurs during periods of low interest rates and rising stock markets, with previous instances noted in 2007, 2009, 2014-2015, and 2021-2024 [4]. Group 2: Market Activity - The A-share market has seen daily trading volumes exceed 2 trillion yuan since August, indicating heightened market activity and investor engagement [4][8]. - The number of new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 26% compared to May, although it remains below the peak levels of October last year [4]. - The recent surge in equity fund launches, with over 70% being equity funds, reflects strong investor confidence and a robust market outlook [8]. Group 3: Fund Redemption and Adjustments - A significant number of funds have adjusted their net asset value precision due to large-scale redemptions, with 54 funds reported to have made such adjustments since July [5][7]. - The redemption wave in fixed-income products is driven by a shift in investor preference towards equities, as well as high concentration of institutional investors in certain bond funds, leading to liquidity management issues [7]. - Fund managers are responding to redemption pressures by increasing the precision of net asset values to mitigate the impact on investors [6][7].

Macro and Strategy - The report analyzes the current bull market in the ChiNext index, noting that it has risen by 21.69% year-to-date as of August 18, 2025, with comparisons to previous bull markets in 2015, 2013, and 2020, which had significantly higher gains [8][3] - The report highlights the differences between the bull markets of 2013-2015, characterized by broad-based gains, and the more structural gains seen from 2018-2021, where a lower percentage of stocks saw significant increases [8] Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing weekly report indicates that the price of boxboard and corrugated paper continues to rise, with July furniture retail sales in the U.S. increasing by 5.1% year-on-year [3][10] - Domestic prices for hardwood pulp have risen slightly, while cultural paper and white cardboard prices remain under pressure due to supply and demand dynamics [9][10] - The report notes that China's furniture exports increased by 3.0% year-on-year in July, with expectations for recovery in the export chain due to recent tariff extensions and upcoming U.S. interest rate cuts [10][11] Automotive Industry - The automotive industry report indicates that vehicle production and sales in July 2025 were 2.591 million and 2.593 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 14.7% [13] - The report highlights a strong pre-sale for the new Tank 500 model, indicating robust consumer interest [13] - The report suggests a focus on the performance of the automotive sector's mid-year results, with a notable increase in wholesale vehicle sales in early August [14] Copper Industry - The report on Tongling Nonferrous Metals indicates a 34% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, despite a revenue increase of 6.4% to 76.1 billion yuan [21][22] - The company has become the largest copper smelting company globally, with a production capacity of 2.2 million tons following the commissioning of a new copper smelting project [22] - The report anticipates a significant increase in copper production capacity with the upcoming commissioning of the Mirador copper mine's second phase [23] Gold Industry - The report on Shanjin International shows a 42.14% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit rising by 48.43% [24] - The report notes that the company is on track to meet its annual gold production target of at least 8 tons, despite a slight decline in production in the first half [24][25] - The report highlights the potential for future growth through acquisitions and new projects, particularly in Namibia and other regions [25] Electronic and Battery Materials - The report on Shengquan Group indicates a 51.19% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance in advanced electronic materials and battery materials [31][32] - The company has expanded its market share in synthetic resin and advanced materials, with significant growth in sales volume [32][33] - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing development of new products and applications in the biomass sector, with new projects expected to launch in the near future [34] Medical Aesthetics - The report on Aimeike shows a 21.59% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit down by 29.57% [35][36] - The company is facing increased competition in the medical aesthetics market, but it is expanding its product line through acquisitions and new product development [36][37] - The report suggests that while short-term challenges exist, the long-term growth potential remains strong due to increasing consumer demand for medical aesthetics [37] Beverage Industry - The report on Yanghe Distillery indicates a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a focus on maintaining pricing power and controlling production volume [38]

编者按 东方证券北京某营业部投资顾问周驰（化名）表示，近段时间新开户情况明显转好，现在每天能新开几 十户。一些新客户看到市场具有赚钱效应，就慢慢开始关注A股。 国金证券相关负责人也表示，在本轮A股行情中，公司累计新开户数较去年同期增长明显，此前3月份 达到今年以来单月新开户数峰值，与交易所公布的A股新开户数变动趋势保持一致。除新客户之外，存 量客户的活跃度也随着行情上涨不断提升。 央行最新数据显示，2025年7月，居民存款减少1.11万亿元，而非银行业金融机构存款大幅增加2.14万亿 元，这表明居民投资行为正呈现逐渐活跃趋势。 居民存款的"迁徙"轨迹实则是观察中国经济发展的微观窗口。我们将镜头拉近，对准银行营业网点、券 商分支机构、公募基金，共同感知"存款搬家"背景下，A股市场的活跃度。 近日，A股市场交投明显活跃。身处券商业务第一线的营业部和分公司，最能感知A股市场的温度。8月 19日，中国证券报记者走访了位于上海、北京的多家券商营业部和分公司。 上述分支机构均表示，8月份新开户数量明显增长，但尚不及2024年"924"行情时的规模；新开户投资者 以80后、90后、00后群体为主；存量客户追加投资的意愿比较 ...

2025.08. 19 本文字数：2485，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 安卓 继18日创下十年新高之后，8月19日，沪指早盘继续冲高，但午后反复走弱，三大指数翻绿。截至收 盘，沪指跌0.02%，深成指跌0.12%，创业板指跌0.17%，全天成交额2.64万亿元，较上个交易日缩 量超1700亿元，2982只个股上涨，2252只个股下跌。 "我相信这并非本轮行情的终极高点，走长牛不需要每天都涨停。"一位投资者在股吧中写道。 19日的回调似乎在意料之中，就在18日，已有多个财经博主、炒股大V在直播间里提醒回调风险， 但有趣的是，这些炒股"带头人"并不建议大家追高，与去年"924行情"启动之时"锣鼓喧天，鞭炮齐 鸣"的态度截然相反。 这也与部分散户目前的理性态度形成了共鸣。"稳定情绪，等待市场给出答案，不轻仓，也不满 仓。"另一位投资者称。 散户"畏高"踌躇中 自7月份以来，A股主要指数就开始了连续上涨，市场交投热度回升，资金表现活跃。以深市为例， 据第一财经统计，今年7月份，深市无论是成交笔数抑或成交金额均超过去年924行情以及今年2、3 月份的DeepSeek行情。 数据显示：7月份，深市股票成交笔数 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][38]. Core Insights - From January to July 2025, the total funds obtained by enterprises and residents amounted to approximately 20.05 trillion yuan, with bank loans (including write-offs and ABS) contributing about 12.93 trillion yuan, corporate bond financing at 1.42 trillion yuan, and fiscal net expenditure at 5.61 trillion yuan. The increase in deposits from residents was 9.66 trillion yuan, while non-financial corporate deposits increased by approximately 194.7 billion yuan [4][5]. - The analysis indicates that the financing demand from the real sector remains weak, and the efficiency of fund circulation between enterprises and residents is low. The government has intensified counter-cyclical adjustments [4][5]. - The trend of "deposit migration" towards wealth management products is expected to continue into the first half of 2024-2025, driven by factors such as the reduction in deposit interest rates. Since July 2025, with improved macroeconomic narratives, capital market performance has strengthened, leading to an increase in risk appetite and a shift of deposits towards equity markets [4][20]. Summary by Sections Funding Sources and Flows - In the first seven months of 2025, the total funding sources for the real sector were similar to 2023 levels but significantly higher than 2024. The loan increment for 2025 showed slight growth compared to 2024 but was notably lower than 2023. Fiscal net expenditure was significantly higher than in 2023-2024, indicating increased government intervention in response to economic recovery falling short of expectations [5][6]. - The proportion of funds flowing into resident deposits decreased from 53.9% in 2023 to 48.2% in 2025, while the flow towards financial investments increased significantly, indicating a shift in investment behavior [6][7]. Deposit Migration Analysis - The efficiency of fund circulation in the real sector has not improved, with a notable increase in "non-bank" deposits. The historical trend shows that low interest rates and capital market performance are key drivers of deposit migration [10][16]. - The migration of deposits is expected to continue, particularly towards higher-risk asset allocations rather than consumption, as consumer confidence remains subdued due to income instability and other factors [28][30]. Investment Recommendations - Given the current macroeconomic conditions and the ongoing deposit migration towards financial products, it is recommended to focus on undervalued quality cyclical stocks for excess returns in the second half of the year. Specific banks such as Ningbo Bank, Changshu Bank, and others are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [35].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant shift in capital flow from bank deposits to the A-share market, driven by declining deposit rates and a strong stock market performance, leading to increased investor confidence and participation [2][3][5]. Group 1: "Deposit Migration" in Progress - Resident deposits have decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating a clear trend of funds moving from banks to brokerage margin accounts [6]. - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, while the total resident deposits reached 160 trillion yuan, with nearly 75% being time deposits [6]. - The upcoming maturity of a large volume of time deposits between 2025 and 2026 is expected to release substantial funds into the stock market, enhancing liquidity [6]. Group 2: Surge in A-share Account Openings - In July, approximately 1.9636 million new A-share accounts were opened, marking a year-on-year increase of 70.54% and a month-on-month increase of 19.27% [7]. - The majority of new accounts were opened by individual investors, particularly younger generations (those born in the 1990s and 2000s), who are becoming a significant force in the market [7][8]. - Factors driving this surge include market performance, policy support, low interest rates, and innovations in trading channels that make it easier for young investors to participate [8]. Group 3: Transition from "Speculative Market" to "Allocation Market" - The reduction in household deposits and the increase in new accounts create a closed loop, with a significant portion of funds likely flowing into wealth management and then back into the stock market [9]. - The influx of new accounts suggests a potential shift in market dynamics, where retail investors may transition from speculative trading to long-term investment strategies, such as ETF investments [10]. - The presence of younger investors may increase market volatility in the short term but could also foster innovation and development in the capital market [10].