美国总统特朗普一句"预计美联储将大幅降息"，全球市场瞬间沸腾，黄金再次成为最大赢家！9月16日， 伦敦现货黄金价格一度飙升至3690美元/盎司历史新高，3700点关口成为现货黄金多头的下一目标！ 特朗普的"降息风暴"，吹高金价 本轮黄金暴涨的背后，是一场关于美联储利率的"政治博弈"。 当地时间9月14日，美国总统特朗普对记者公开表示，预计美联储将在本周会议上宣布"大幅降息"。 这番 预告立即引发市场震荡，黄金板块应声而起。 在地缘政治方面，特朗普保证立即解决的乌克兰战争和巴勒斯坦加沙地区战争没有取得解决问题的进展， 这也是周期性地让市场不安的因素。不仅个人投资者，全球央行也继续增持黄金。世界黄金协会数据显 示，今年第二季度，各经济体央行共增储黄金166吨。 金价还能涨多久？现在还能上车吗？ 面对如此高位，很多投资者都在问：现在还能上车吗？ 多家机构认为，在美联储降息落地前，黄金可能还会维持强势。从中长期来看，国际金价仍处于震荡上行 通道。 政策不确定性及地缘政治风险使市场避险需求持续存在，避险情绪将为金价提供长期支撑。 同 时，全球央行黄金配置意愿仍较强。 本周四（9月18日）凌晨2:00，美联储议息来临，巨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold prices, driven by multiple factors including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased market demand for safe-haven assets, and ongoing purchases of gold by central banks [2][4][5]. Group 1: Drivers of Gold Price Increase - The recent surge in gold prices, with a rise of approximately 5% this month and nearly 40% year-to-date, is attributed to three main catalysts: weak U.S. economic data fueling rate cut expectations, heightened geopolitical risks increasing safe-haven demand, and sustained central bank gold purchases [4][5]. - U.S. economic indicators, such as a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2.9% in August and a decrease in non-farm payrolls, have intensified concerns about the economic outlook, reinforcing market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][5]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have led to increased uncertainty in global energy supply chains, driving more investment into gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. Group 2: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks worldwide have been actively increasing their gold reserves, with the People's Bank of China reporting a continuous increase for ten months, reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August [6]. - The European Central Bank has indicated that gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, reflecting its growing importance as a reserve asset [5][6]. - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, with 43% planning to add more gold to their holdings [5][6]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions - Various institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs predicting potential prices reaching up to $5,000 per ounce under certain scenarios, driven by factors such as a weakening dollar and continued rate cuts [7][8]. - Current market expectations suggest a 90.1% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which could further support gold prices [8]. - The proportion of gold in central bank assets remains low compared to historical levels, indicating potential for further increases in gold holdings as countries pursue "de-dollarization" strategies [9].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 22,000 in August, significantly below the market expectation of 75,000, indicating a cooling labor market [1][2] - The unemployment rate in August reached 4.3%, matching market expectations and marking the highest level since October 2021 [1] - Following the employment data release, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged, with an 88.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut [1][2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market - Gold prices reached a historical high, with spot gold rising by 1.5% to $3,600.15 per ounce, and a year-to-date increase of 37% [1][6] - The increase in gold prices is driven by strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, a weakening U.S. dollar, and rising market demand for safe-haven assets [6][7] - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased from 953.1 tons at the beginning of August to 981.9 tons by September 4, reflecting heightened investment interest [6][7] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Saudi Arabia is pushing OPEC+ to consider restoring more oil production to regain market share, which has led to a significant drop in international oil prices [4] - Following the announcement, Brent crude fell below $65 per barrel, marking a new low since August 18, while WTI crude dropped to $61.3 per barrel, the lowest since June [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent surge in gold prices driven by market demand for safe-haven assets and expectations of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts [1] - On December 3, 2025, the most actively traded gold futures price rose by $20.2, closing at $3,619.7 per ounce, marking an increase of 0.56% [1] - The highest intraday gold price reached $3,640.1 on the same day, indicating strong market activity [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported a decline in job vacancies to 7.18 million in July, the lowest level since March, suggesting a slowdown in the labor market and decreasing hiring [1] - The report's weakness supports dovish expectations for U.S. monetary policy and is favorable for gold bulls [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.24% to 98.142, further supporting gold prices [1] Group 3 - According to the World Gold Council, central banks globally purchased a net of 10 tons of gold in July, maintaining their status as net buyers despite a slowdown in purchasing speed [1] - Emerging markets continue to be stable buyers of gold [1] Group 4 - Surbiton Associates reported that Australia's gold production in Q2 2025 reached 76 tons, an increase of 3 tons or 4% from the previous quarter [2] - Australia's annual gold production has risen to its highest level since the 2022/2023 fiscal year, approaching the record of 328 tons set in the 1999/2000 fiscal year [2] - Silver futures for December delivery increased by $0.08, closing at $41.810 per ounce, with an intraday high of $42.290 per ounce [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The report is bullish on both gold and copper in the short - term and medium - term, with an intraday view of oscillating strongly for both [1] - Gold is expected to maintain a strong performance due to rising interest - rate cut expectations, the upward breakthrough of external gold prices, and increased safe - haven demand from the equity market [1][3] - Copper is expected to rise as overseas interest - rate cut expectations increase, the domestic peak season approaches, and there is strong industrial support [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, New York gold hit the $3600 mark, London gold reached above $3500, and Shanghai gold stood above 810 yuan. Since August 22 after the Jackson Hole meeting, gold prices have been on an upward trend [3] - **Driving Factors**: The dovish stance of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, rising market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September (although there is a divergence on 2 or 3 rate cuts this year), the slowdown of the equity market (especially the Nasdaq and Shanghai Composite Index), and the upward breakthrough of New York and London gold above the upper edge of the oscillation range since the second quarter [3] - **Technical Analysis**: New York and London gold have strong upward momentum, while Shanghai gold is relatively weak due to RMB appreciation and appreciation expectations [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Last night, Shanghai copper increased positions and rose, with the position rising to about 510,000 lots, and the main futures price standing above the 80,000 mark. Since the Jackson Hole meeting, copper has been rising, with an accelerating upward trend since Friday [4] - **Driving Factors**: The approaching Fed September FOMC meeting, the high - level oscillation of the domestic and foreign equity markets, the rotation of funds, and the upcoming peak industrial season in China (Golden September and Silver October) which may lead to stronger downstream demand [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The short - term copper price has strong upward momentum after breaking through the 80,000 mark with increased positions [4]

Group 1 - Wall Street analysts exhibit unprecedented optimism regarding gold prices, with 86% of 14 participants expecting prices to rise next week, and none predicting a decline [1] - Retail investors show similar sentiment, with 68% of 179 votes indicating a bullish outlook for gold, while 17% predict a decline and 16% expect consolidation [1] - Gold prices have recently increased, with Shanghai gold closing up 2.08% at 800.56 yuan per gram, breaking the 800 yuan barrier again [1] Group 2 - According to GF Futures, market sentiment has been affected by trade agreements between multiple countries and the U.S., which has somewhat mitigated inflationary pressures on dollar assets [3] - Despite the positive sentiment, U.S. economic data has worsened in July, and there are significant pressures from government deficits in a high-interest-rate environment, maintaining a demand for safe-haven assets [3] - Technical analysis indicates that international gold prices are forming a triangle pattern, facing resistance at the previous high of $3,450, and are expected to fluctuate within the $3,300 to $3,400 range [3]

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, with over 85% probability for a 25 basis points cut in September, which lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and often leads to a weaker dollar, creating a dual benefit for gold [2] - Political tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve have raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, as President Trump attempted to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, who subsequently filed a lawsuit claiming the president lacks the authority to do so, potentially leading to quicker and prolonged low interest rates that could drive safe-haven investments into gold [2] - Despite a decline in initial jobless claims and a rebound in corporate profits indicating economic resilience, uncertainty continues to drive investors towards gold as a safe haven, while a buoyant market allows investors to hedge potential risks through gold, creating a new norm of simultaneous gains in both stocks and gold [2] - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. July Core PCE Price Index year-on-year, personal spending month-on-month, and the Chicago PMI for August [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has shown a rebound after a dip, with a strong bullish trend indicated by three consecutive bullish candles, and the short-term moving averages (5-day, 10-day, 20-day) displaying a clear upward divergence, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend [5] - Key support levels to monitor include the 5-day moving average around 3395; if this level holds, the bullish trend remains intact, while a drop below could see stronger support at the 10-day moving average around 3365 [6] - The primary resistance level is focused around 3423/3425, which is a confluence of recent highs and an upward trend line; a breakout above this level could lead to further resistance at 3439 and 3452 [7] - The four-hour chart indicates a current upward trend with an "ascending wedge" pattern, which could either continue or reverse depending on whether the price holds above the lower support line of the wedge [9]

Group 1 - Trump announced the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing alleged false statements in mortgage documents [1] - The dismissal is perceived as a direct attack on the Federal Reserve's independence and its decision not to lower interest rates, which may negatively impact the credibility of the US dollar [1] - The price of gold is expected to benefit in the long term due to the implications of Trump's actions, with the price of gold closing at 781.12 yuan per gram, up 0.28% [1] Group 2 - Following trade agreements between multiple countries and the US, market sentiment has weakened, providing some support for dollar assets despite deteriorating US economic data and significant government deficit pressures [3] - The international gold price is currently facing resistance at the previous high of 3450 USD, with ongoing market demand for safe-haven assets due to rising negative impacts from tariffs [3] - Gold prices are fluctuating within the range of 3300-3400 USD, with recommendations to construct bullish spread strategies using gold call options during price corrections [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For gold, short - term and medium - term view is "sideways", intraday view is "sideways and weakening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". Overseas market risk appetite has declined, recent US stocks have fallen, increasing market risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold prices, but the strengthening US dollar index is negative. The market now expects only 2 interest rate cuts of 50 basis points this year, cooling the rate - cut expectation and strengthening the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting [1][3]. - For copper, short - term and medium - term view is "sideways", intraday view is "sideways and strengthening", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". Overseas rate - cut expectation has cooled, strengthening the US dollar index and being negative for copper prices. Domestically, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has cooled. However, the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased this Thursday, and as the peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the gold price moved sideways [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Overseas market risk appetite has declined, US stocks have fallen, increasing market risk - aversion demand, which is positive for gold prices. The US dollar index has continued to strengthen, which is negative for gold prices. The market now expects only 2 interest rate cuts of 50 basis points this year, cooling the rate - cut expectation and strengthening the US dollar index in the short - term [3]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, the gold price is expected to move sideways. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Last night, Shanghai copper oscillated strongly, and the main contract price approached the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Driving Factors**: Macroscopically, overseas rate - cut expectation has cooled, strengthening the US dollar index and being negative for copper prices. Domestically, the bullish sentiment in the commodity market has cooled. Industrially, the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased this Thursday, and as the peak season approaches, industrial support has strengthened [5]. - **Outlook**: As the peak season approaches and inventory decreases at a low level, the basis and calendar spread may continue to strengthen. The futures price should pay attention to the pressure at the 79,000 - yuan mark [5].

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, opening at $3336.80 per ounce, reaching a daily low of $3323.42, and later peaking at $3358.05 before closing at $3332.63, resulting in a daily range of $34.63 and a decline of $4.17, or 0.12% [3] - Market sentiment is influenced by geopolitical developments, including the positive expectations surrounding the Russia-US-Ukraine meeting and Hamas agreeing to a new ceasefire proposal, which have reduced the demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the gold market's reaction to the recent meeting between Trump and Putin was minimal, indicating that gold prices are likely to remain within a certain range until the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [2]