Group 1 - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for August 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices and China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) prices [1] - The expected buy price for CEA in August 2025 is 71.25 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 76.04 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 73.65 CNY/ton [1] - The expected buy price for CCER in August 2025 is 76.25 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 83.59 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 79.91 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - The research center also published green certificate prices for centralized projects, distributed projects, and biomass power generation for 2024 and 2025 [2] - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 7.82 CNY/unit, while distributed projects are expected to be 6.94 CNY/unit, and biomass power generation is expected to be 6.77 CNY/unit [2] - Compared to July 2025, the prices of green certificates for 2024 and 2025 show mixed trends, with some prices increasing and others decreasing [2] Group 3 - In July, the average closing price for CEA was 73.64 CNY/ton, an increase of approximately 3% compared to June's average of 71.51 CNY/ton [3] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in July was 51.03 million tons, a decrease of 35.75% from June's 79.42 million tons, ending a four-month increase in trading volume [3] - Despite the decrease in trading volume, it remains at a high level, showing a year-on-year increase of nearly 236%, indicating enhanced trading activity in the national carbon emissions trading market [3]

Market Overview - The national carbon emissions trading market in China has been operational for four years, showing healthy and orderly functioning with significantly enhanced trading activity [1] - Cumulative trading volume has surpassed 670 million tons, with total transaction value exceeding 46.2 billion yuan, indicating continuous market expansion [1] - In 2024, the annual transaction value exceeded 18 billion yuan, marking a nearly 25% year-on-year increase and setting a historical high [1] Price Trends - Carbon emission allowance prices exceeded 100 yuan per ton in November 2024, with recent market prices stabilizing between 70 to 80 yuan per ton, nearly doubling compared to the initial trading period [1] Technological Advancements - The first batch of over 2,000 coal-fired power enterprises participating in the national carbon market has adopted the mindset of "emissions have costs, and reductions have benefits," leading to technological upgrades that enhance efficiency and reduce costs [1] Case Studies - Xiamen Huaxia Power's Songyu Power Plant faced significant emission reduction pressure, purchasing approximately 150,000 tons of carbon allowances last year, which motivated the company to phase out outdated capacity [2] - The plant recently commissioned a state-of-the-art 660,000 kW reheat power generation unit, replacing two 30-year-old units, saving over 90,000 tons of standard coal and reducing CO2 emissions by more than 250,000 tons annually [2] - Huaneng Hubei Power's Xiangyang Power Plant implemented biomass gasification coupled with coal-fired generation, utilizing agricultural waste to generate 59 million kWh annually, replacing 18,000 tons of standard coal and reducing CO2 emissions by approximately 50,000 tons [2] Industry Impact - The carbon emissions trading market has led to a reduction in carbon intensity for key power generation units by approximately 8.78% from 2018 to 2023, with total carbon emissions decreasing by about 2.8% [2] - The average annual reduction in emission costs is estimated to be around 12 to 13 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Tianjin Municipal Government has officially issued the revised "Interim Measures for the Management of Carbon Emission Rights Trading in Tianjin," which will take effect on July 1, 2025, focusing on adjustments to carbon emission quota compliance deadlines, the use ratio of certified emission reductions, and the management of carbon emission quotas, among other aspects [1][9]. Group 1: Key Adjustments in Regulations - The deadline for annual carbon emission quota compliance for key emission units has been extended from June 30 to October 31, increasing the compliance period by four months [2][11]. - The offset ratio for certified emission reductions has been reduced from 10% to 5% of the required carbon emission quotas, aligning with national carbon market standards [2][11]. - A new provision allows up to 5% of the total annual quota to be used for adjustments, paid issuance, and market regulation [2][11]. Group 2: Regulatory Responsibilities and Definitions - The Tianjin Municipal Ecology and Environment Bureau is responsible for determining the conditions for key emission units and the total annual quota and distribution plan [3][12]. - The regulatory framework has been refined to establish a "city-level coordination and local implementation" structure, with various departments collaborating on supervision [3][12]. - Key terms such as greenhouse gases, carbon emissions, and carbon emission rights have been clearly defined in the revised measures [3][12]. Group 3: Strengthening Oversight and Public Participation - The revised measures enhance public participation in policy formulation, requiring the Tianjin Municipal Ecology and Environment Bureau to consult with various stakeholders when proposing trading coverage and quota distribution plans [2][11]. - Any individual or organization can report violations to the relevant ecological environment authorities, with confirmed violations being recorded in the Tianjin credit information system [4][13]. Group 4: Market Operation and Risk Management - The measures mandate that greenhouse gas emission units develop data quality control plans and maintain original records for at least five years [5][14]. - Carbon emission trading institutions are required to establish risk management mechanisms and report significant trading anomalies to the Tianjin Municipal Ecology and Environment Bureau [5][14]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to provide financing services to key emission units that comply with carbon emission quota requirements [5][14].

Group 1 - The introduction of international emissions trading at COP3 in 1997 aimed to help countries meet their emission reduction commitments through the purchase of carbon credits [1] - The carbon market is divided into mandatory and voluntary types, with Europe leading the establishment of emissions trading systems, followed by countries like China, South Korea, Japan, and Australia [1][3] - The lack of a unified international standard has hindered the establishment of a robust market, with the Paris Agreement's Article 6 still facing challenges in implementation due to verification method issues [1][8] Group 2 - The UN approved the "Paris Agreement Carbon Credit Mechanism" (PACM) in May 2025, providing guidance for evaluating the effectiveness of emission reduction projects [1] - The new standards include a baseline standard to estimate potential emissions without the mechanism and a leakage standard to account for unintended emissions increases [1][15] - The establishment of the "Development Carbon Market Alliance" by Singapore, Kenya, and the UK signifies a government-led initiative to advance carbon markets [2] Group 3 - Carbon markets help achieve emission reduction goals at lower costs, enhancing economic efficiency and promoting energy conservation awareness [3] - Major carbon markets include the EU carbon market and China's national carbon market, with the EU market being a mature example using an absolute cap-and-trade model [3][4] - China's carbon market, launched in July 2021, covers approximately 5.1 billion tons of CO2 emissions and includes 2,257 key emitting units [4] Group 4 - The Kyoto Protocol established the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in 2005, allowing developed countries to obtain certified emission reductions (CERs) through projects in developing countries [5] - The carbon market's core function is to create a carbon price signal that guides emission reduction actions, with the expectation that carbon prices will rise as emission caps tighten [5][6] Group 5 - The EU carbon market has seen a significant price increase, with expectations that prices will exceed €120 per ton by 2030 and €400 by 2040, reflecting the costs of advanced reduction measures [6] - The demand for carbon markets from countries is driven by the need to achieve climate goals cost-effectively, with different mechanisms in place across regions [6][7] Group 6 - The establishment of national carbon markets is crucial for countries to meet their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement [7][9] - The EU's carbon market has undergone structural reforms to recover carbon prices after a prolonged period of low prices due to oversupply [7][9] Group 7 - The challenges in creating a global carbon market include historical issues with previous mechanisms and differing national interests between developed and developing countries [9][11] - The complexity of mechanism design and the need for clarity in methodologies and standards are significant barriers to establishing a unified global carbon market [9][10] Group 8 - The implementation of new standards aims to enhance the quality of carbon credits and ensure the authenticity of emission reductions, promoting high-quality development in global carbon markets [15][16] - Future directions include improving verification processes, enhancing international cooperation, and integrating carbon markets with global climate actions [15][17] Group 9 - China's transition from a seller to a buyer in the international carbon market poses challenges in aligning domestic mechanisms with international standards [19][20] - The national carbon market's tightening control over emissions will support China's dual carbon goals while balancing domestic and international climate trade requirements [20][21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that coal consumption in China is projected to account for 53.2% of total energy consumption in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from 2023 [1] - Clean energy sources, including natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar energy, are expected to make up 28.6% of total energy consumption in 2024, which is an increase of 2.2 percentage points compared to 2023 [1] - By the end of 2024, the cumulative trading volume of carbon emission rights in the national market is anticipated to reach 630 million tons, with a total transaction value of 43.033 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 2024 China Ecological Environment Status Bulletin indicates continuous improvement in ecological environment quality and stable environmental safety across the country [1] Air Quality - The average concentration of PM2.5 in cities at or above the prefecture level reached 29.3 micrograms per cubic meter, a decrease of 2.7% from 2023 - The proportion of days with good air quality was 87.2%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from 2023 - The proportion of heavily polluted days was 0.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from 2023 - The average PM2.5 concentrations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Yangtze River Delta, and Fenwei Plain decreased by 0.9%, 0.9%, and 4.8% respectively compared to 2023 [2] Surface Water Quality - The proportion of surface water quality in categories I to III was 90.4%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from 2023 - The proportion of water quality in category V or worse was 0.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from 2023 - Among 210 key lakes and reservoirs, the proportion of those with good water quality was 77.1%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from 2023 - The water quality in major river basins such as the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers remained stable at category II for several consecutive years [3] Marine Water Quality - The proportion of coastal waters meeting Class I standards in summer was 97.7%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from 2023 - The overall quality of nearshore marine waters remained stable, with 83.7% classified as good (Class I and II) [4] Soil Environment - The overall heavy metal content in key soil risk monitoring points showed a declining trend, indicating initial control over soil pollution - The safety utilization rate of contaminated arable land reached 92% - The rate of rural domestic sewage treatment exceeded 45% [5] Natural Ecology - The Ecological Quality Index (EQI) value was 59.95, indicating a "Category II" ecological quality, reflecting rich biodiversity and high coverage of natural ecosystems - The forest coverage rate exceeded 25% [6] Noise Environment - The daytime and nighttime compliance rates for noise environment in cities at or above the prefecture level were 95.8% and 88.2% respectively, with a slight decrease in daytime compliance [7] Nuclear and Radiation Safety - No significant nuclear or radiation incidents occurred, with the annual occurrence rate of radiation accidents remaining below one per ten thousand sources - The overall radiation environment quality was good [8] Climate Change Response - The proportion of coal consumption in total energy consumption was 53.2%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from 2023 - The share of clean energy sources in total energy consumption rose to 28.6%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from 2023 - The cumulative transaction volume of carbon emission rights reached 630 million tons, with a total transaction value of 43.033 billion yuan [9] Solid Waste and New Pollutants Management - The construction of "waste-free cities" is being advanced, with 113+8 cities and regions accelerating the implementation of related tasks - New pollutant management initiatives are being launched in key river basins, focusing on specific pollutants and industries [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Opinions on Improving the Market-oriented Allocation System for Resource and Environmental Factors" aims to enhance the efficiency of resource and environmental factor utilization through market mechanisms, promoting green and low-carbon development [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Mechanisms and Goals - By 2027, the goal is to have a well-established trading system for carbon emissions rights, water rights, and pollution discharge rights, with a more active market for resource and environmental factors [3][4]. - The establishment of a national carbon emissions trading market and various pilot projects across multiple provinces indicates progress, although challenges remain in the market's maturity and regulatory framework [3][4]. Key Measures Proposed - The "Opinions" outline measures to improve the allocation system, focusing on quota distribution, transaction subjects, and transaction methods [5][6]. - Specific actions include enhancing the connection between trading systems and environmental management goals, expanding the coverage of carbon markets, and diversifying trading subjects and methods [6][7]. Capacity Building for Trading Markets - Effective operation of resource and environmental factor trading markets relies on accurate statistical accounting, standardized trading platforms, transparent information disclosure, and enforceable regulatory mechanisms [7]. - The "Opinions" emphasize the need for improved monitoring and accounting capabilities for carbon emissions, water usage, and pollutant discharge, alongside the development of legal frameworks and financial support systems [7].

Report Information - Report Type: Coking Coal and Coke Daily Review [1] - Date: June 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Conditions 1.1 Futures Market - On May 30, the main contract J2509 of coking coal futures hit a new low since January 2017 for the September contract, with the decline narrowing. The main contract JM2509 of coking coal futures saw an enlarged decline, hitting a new low since July 2016 for the September contract [5]. - J2509: The previous closing price was 1332 yuan/ton, opening at 1333 yuan/ton, with a high of 1334.5 yuan/ton, a low of 1295.5 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 1308 yuan/ton, down 2.13%. The trading volume was 31,257 lots, and the open interest was 56,074 lots, a decrease of 358 lots, with a capital outflow of 0.36 billion yuan [5]. - JM2509: The previous closing price was 759 yuan/ton, opening at 757 yuan/ton, with a high of 759.5 yuan/ton, a low of 726 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 726 yuan/ton, down 5.28%. The trading volume was 875,062 lots, and the open interest was 552,525 lots, an increase of 12,197 lots, with a capital outflow of 1.08 billion yuan [5]. 1.2 Spot Market - On May 30, the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1340 yuan/ton, with no change. The price in Tangshan was 1270 yuan/ton, also unchanged [8]. - The aggregated price of low - sulfur primary coking coal in Tangshan was 1275 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Lvliang, it was 1150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Linfen, it was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Handan, it was 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Heze, it was 1320 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Pingdingshan, it was 1460 yuan/ton, unchanged [8]. 2. Technical Analysis - On May 30, the daily KDJ indicators of the coking coal 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values turning up and the D value continuing to decline, showing a potential golden cross. The daily KDJ indicators of the coking coal 2509 contract continued to diverge downward. The daily MACD green bars of the coking coal 2509 contract continued to expand slightly, while those of the coking coal 2509 contract expanded further [8]. 3. Outlook 3.1 Coking Coal - In the past 5 weeks, the coking coal production of independent coking plants has slightly declined after hovering near the highest level since early August last year. The coking coal production of steel mills has also slightly declined compared to late April. In the past 6 weeks, the coking coal inventory at ports has significantly decreased, but the de - stocking speed of steel mills is slow, and the inventory of coking plants has started to accumulate, adding new downward pressure on coking coal prices. The profit per ton of coking coal has been in the red for 2 consecutive weeks, mainly due to two rounds of price cuts for coking coal in mid - and late May, hitting a new low in recent years [10]. 3.2 Coking Coal - From January to April, the year - on - year growth of imports turned negative, but the absolute value of imports remained high, and the overall loose supply pattern was difficult to reverse. The raw coal inventory of coal washing plants first increased and then decreased, and the clean coal inventory rose again to a relatively high level. In the past 6 weeks, the inventory of independent coking plants has significantly decreased, and the port inventory has also returned to the normal level before early August last year, but the steel mill inventory has increased steadily. With steel mills still having relatively sufficient inventory, if coking plants also adopt a de - stocking strategy, coking coal prices are likely to fall rather than rise [10]. 3.3 Overall - Although the weak market for coking coal and coke futures continues, and there may still be new lows in early June, positive factors in the fundamentals and news are accumulating. Attention should be paid to whether a turnaround in the market can occur around early June due to changes in tariff policies and the recovery of confidence in the steel market [10]. 4. Industry News - On May 29, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued an opinion on improving the market - based allocation system for resource and environmental factors, aiming to improve the carbon market coverage and other aspects by 2027 [11]. - The third - round and fourth - batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections were launched, targeting 5 provinces and 3 central enterprises [11]. - Zhang Guoqing emphasized safety production at the launch ceremony of the 2025 National "Safety Production Month" [12]. - Sansteel Minguang's production, capacity replacement, fuel procurement, and sales situation were introduced, and it believed that relevant production - restriction policies were reasonable and necessary [12]. - Shanxi Coking Coal International Energy will focus on its main business in 2025 and optimize resource allocation [12]. - Shaanxi Energy's profit decline in the first quarter was due to lower power generation and coal sales prices [12]. - As of May 30, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 6.75 million tons, showing different changes compared to the previous week, month, and year [13]. - Yitai B - share completed the tender offer for ST Xinchao's controlling stake [13]. - Tongbao Energy will manage its coal inventory according to market conditions [13]. - From January to April 2025, China's shipbuilding industry maintained its leading position globally, and the industry's boom cycle is expected to continue [13]. - The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals temporarily suspended the ruling against Trump's tariff measures [14]. - The OECD report pointed out that planned capacity expansion may exacerbate global steel over - capacity [14]. - Clean energy accounted for an increasing proportion of US power generation in March and April [14]. - Turkey's coal imports in April 2025 increased year - on - year and month - on - month [14]. - Bayan Resources' coal sales volume in the first quarter of this year increased significantly, but the average selling price was lower than expected [14]. 5. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the aggregated price of primary coking coal, the production and capacity utilization of coking plants and steel mills, the daily average pig iron production, the inventory of coking coal and coke at ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the profit per ton of coking coal, the production and operating rate of coal washing plants, the raw coal and clean coal inventory of coal washing plants, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [16][17][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the environmental and public utility sector [2] Core Insights - The environmental sector index increased by 3.42%, outperforming other sectors, while the public utility sector index decreased by 0.18% [6][18] - The report highlights a significant drop in coal prices, with Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal at 620 CNY/ton, a 61.2% decrease from its peak in October 2022 [6][28] - The report recommends companies such as Huadian International and Sheneng Co., while suggesting attention to Zhongmin Energy and Funeng Co. [6] - The report emphasizes the investment value in nuclear and hydropower, recommending Chuan Investment Energy, State Power Investment, Yangtze Power, and China National Nuclear Power [6] Summary by Sections Key Event Interpretations - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice to promote green electricity direct connection projects, requiring that the self-consumed electricity from renewable sources should not be less than 60% of total available generation by 2030 [10][15] - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council released opinions on improving the market-oriented allocation of resource and environmental factors, aiming for a complete carbon emission rights and water rights trading system by 2027 [15][16] Market Performance Review - The environmental sector has shown a cumulative increase of 6.79% in 2025, while the power sector has seen a slight decrease of 0.05% [6][18] - The report details the performance of various sub-sectors, with solid waste management up by 4.83% and comprehensive environmental management up by 8.66% [22] Key Data Tracking - As of May 30, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal remains at 620 CNY/ton, with significant reductions from previous highs [28] - The Three Gorges Reservoir's water level increased by 3.9% year-on-year, with a current level of 154.63 meters [30] - The price of LNG at the port is reported at 12.03 USD/MMBtu (4501 CNY/ton), a 70.20% decrease from its peak in December 2022 [46] Industry Key Events - The report notes significant developments in the power market, including the issuance of green certificates for renewable energy projects and the establishment of trading rules for green electricity [58] - It also highlights initiatives in the environmental market aimed at enhancing data integration and promoting green development [59]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has issued an opinion to enhance the market-oriented allocation system for resource and environmental factors, aiming for a comprehensive trading system for carbon emissions, water rights, and pollution rights by 2027, which will support the achievement of related environmental goals [1][2]. Group 1: Carbon Emission Trading - The opinion emphasizes the transition of the national carbon emission trading market from intensity control to total quota control, enhancing the connection between carbon emission rights trading and carbon emission control systems [2]. - The carbon emission trading market currently covers approximately 40% of national CO2 emissions from the power generation sector, and with the inclusion of steel, cement, and aluminum industries, this coverage will exceed 60% [3]. - The distribution system for carbon emission quotas is identified as fundamental for all trading systems, necessitating improvements in the allocation methods to ensure scientific validity [3]. Group 2: Water Rights and Pollution Rights - The opinion outlines the need for strict dual control of total water usage and intensity, promoting the integration of water rights trading and water resource management systems [2]. - A pollution rights trading system will be established based on pollution permits, which will serve as the basis for rights confirmation and regulatory oversight [2]. Group 3: Market Mechanisms and Data Sharing - The opinion calls for the integration of carbon emission rights, water rights, and pollution rights trading into a public resource trading platform, facilitating data sharing and enhancing market efficiency [5]. - A reserve adjustment system for resource and environmental factors will be established to manage supply and demand effectively, including mechanisms for quota management [6]. Group 4: Implementation and Evaluation - The National Development and Reform Commission will oversee the implementation of the opinion, ensuring that local and national markets are aligned and that reforms are effectively executed [6].