中国银河近日发布钢铁行业周报：本周（截止11月28日）钢材综合价格指数为91.95，较上周上涨0.44。 本周螺纹钢均价为3290.60元/吨，较上周上涨19.00元/吨，涨幅0.58%；本周热轧板均价为3373.80元/ 吨，较上周上涨4.60元/吨，涨幅0.14%；本周大中型材均价为3477.60元/吨，较上周下跌0.80元/吨，跌 幅0.02%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 《2024、2025年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额总量和分配方案》印发。11月17 日，生态环境部印发《2024、2025年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额总量和分配 方案》，借鉴发电行业的成熟经验，延续基于碳排放强度控制的免费配额分配核心框架，按照类似"体 验期"式的定位，充分考虑宏观经济形势等因素，树立"激励先进、鞭策落后"的鲜明政策导向，企业的 配额量与其实际产出量挂钩，不设绝对的碳排放总量上限。2024年度实施配额等量分配，2025年度行业 配额基本盈亏平衡，企业获得的配额量与企业实际碳排放绩效排名有关，总体上可以使单位产品碳排放 越低的企业配额盈余率越高，从而形成明确的减排激励约束机制。根据《 ...

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price indices for December 2025, including the national carbon emission allowance (CEA) price index, the national voluntary emission reduction (CCER) price index, and the Chinese Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) price index [1] Carbon Emission Allowance and CCER Price Trends - The expected buying price for the CEA in December 2025 is 53.45 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 61.65 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 57.55 CNY/ton; the buying price index is 100.00, and the selling price index is 105.82, with a midpoint price index of 103.03 [2] - The expected buying price for CCER is 59.00 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 69.40 CNY/ton, leading to a midpoint price of 64.20 CNY/ton; the buying price index is 148.32 (down 1.12%), the selling price index is 166.95 (up 1.80%), and the midpoint price index is 157.84 (up 0.44%) [2] Green Certificate Price Index Trends - The expected price for the 2024 produced centralized project green certificates is 2.89 CNY/unit, with a price index of 58.38; for distributed projects, the price is 2.6 CNY/unit (index 49.73); and for biomass power generation, the price is 1.48 CNY/unit (index 32.96) [4] - The expected price for the 2025 produced centralized project green certificates is 4.31 CNY/unit (index 78.36); for distributed projects, the price is 4.39 CNY/unit (index 89.07); and for biomass power generation, the price is 3.53 CNY/unit (index 68.41) [4] - Price trends for green certificates show divergence, with distributed and biomass project certificates increasing in price for 2024, while centralized project certificates decreased; for 2025, centralized and distributed project certificates increased, while biomass project certificates decreased [4] Carbon Market Activity in November - The average closing price for CEA in November was 59.87 CNY/ton, a significant increase of approximately 11% compared to October's average of 53.94 CNY/ton; the price showed a notable rise and fall, peaking at 67.87 CNY/ton before dropping back below 60 CNY/ton [6] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in November was 236.22 million tons, a decrease of 3.38% from October's 244.49 million tons; nearly two-thirds of trading days saw volumes exceeding 2 million tons, with a peak of 420.29 million tons on November 11 [6] National Carbon Market Expansion - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced a quota allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, marking a significant step in expanding the carbon market; by 2027, additional industries such as chemicals, aviation, and paper will be included, covering approximately 75% of national CO2 emissions [7] - Global carbon markets showed overall recovery in November, with the EU carbon market's average daily trading volume increasing by 52.21%, while the UK market rose by 16.73%; however, the Korean market experienced a decline of 32.53% [7] Global Carbon Market Price Trends - In November, the EU carbon market price decreased from 93.36 USD/ton to 92.93 USD/ton, a drop of 0.46%, while the average daily price increased by 2.46%; the UK market price fell from 76.19 USD/ton to 75.81 USD/ton, a decrease of 0.50%, with a daily average increase of 1.64% [8] - The Korean carbon market price dropped from 7.28 USD/ton to 7.07 USD/ton, a decline of 2.80%, with a daily average price decrease of 0.75%; the New Zealand market price fell from 33.16 USD/ton to 32.43 USD/ton, a decrease of 2.18%, while the daily average price increased by 0.61% [8]

Core Insights - The COP30 conference concluded with an agreement to double climate adaptation funding from developed countries to developing countries to $120 billion annually by 2035, but failed to reach consensus on a fossil fuel exit roadmap [4][5] - The focus of global climate governance is shifting from rule-making to commitment fulfillment, emphasizing the need for countries to submit more ambitious climate action plans and ensure funding commitments are met [5][6] Regulatory Voices - China will adhere to true multilateralism and assist developing countries in addressing climate change through material aid, low-carbon demonstration zones, and capacity training [3] - Technological innovation is driving industrial practices in China, promoting the development of green new productive forces tailored to local conditions [3] - Countries face a shared fate regarding climate change, necessitating a commitment to green transformation, practical actions, equitable pathways, and technological innovation [3] Policy Updates - The National Carbon Market expansion roadmap has been announced, aiming to include the chemical, petrochemical, civil aviation, and paper industries by 2027 [4] - New guidelines from the National Energy Administration emphasize integrated development of renewable energy and the creation of new industrial opportunities [4] - The National Energy Administration has set a baseline for renewable energy consumption, requiring an annual addition of at least 200 million kilowatts [4] Industry Insights - The new power system is creating opportunities for new business models, with the virtual power plant market expected to reach a scale of hundreds of billions, although challenges such as aggregation difficulties and imperfect revenue mechanisms remain [6] - Wuhan is actively implementing its green low-carbon transition, signing 14 green low-carbon technology agreements and promoting carbon-inclusive mechanisms [6] - Mercedes-Benz's new electric CLA model utilizes recycled materials and operates on green electricity, systematically advancing its carbon reduction process [6] COP30 Highlights - China, the EU, and Brazil initiated the establishment of a Carbon Market Open Alliance during COP30 to create a framework for international cooperation on carbon pricing mechanisms [7] - China reported a cumulative reduction of over 26% in energy intensity at COP30, showcasing its progress in green transformation and the establishment of the world's largest carbon market [7] - COP30 featured interactive elements to engage younger generations in climate action, transforming climate initiatives into tangible, participatory experiences [7] ESG Insights - Multilateral development institutions play a crucial role in climate financing by leveraging innovative financial tools to mobilize private capital and bridge significant funding gaps [8] - The textile industry must innovate water-intensive washing processes and promote energy structure transformation to achieve zero-carbon parks [8] - Sustainable aviation fuel development requires multiple technological pathways and urgent policy incentives to support large-scale industry growth [8]

Core Points - The establishment of the "Open Alliance for Carbon Emission Trading Markets" by China, the EU, and Brazil aims to enhance international cooperation in carbon markets, creating a framework for coordinating carbon pricing mechanisms and emission trading systems globally [1][3] - The alliance reflects a collaboration between developed and developing countries, with the EU bringing experience and technology, while China contributes its advancements in renewable energy and green finance [1][3] - The global carbon market is expected to evolve gradually, with the need for unified standards and mechanisms to facilitate cooperation among different carbon pricing systems [6][7] Group 1: Alliance Formation - The alliance aims to create a transparent and credible global compliance carbon market network [1] - It includes both traditional carbon market leaders and emerging market representatives, indicating a bridging cooperation trend [3] - The establishment of the alliance is seen as a positive signal for future climate finance support for emerging markets [3] Group 2: Global Carbon Market Developments - The COP29 conference marked a significant breakthrough in reaching consensus on carbon credit creation standards under the Paris Agreement [2] - The UNFCCC is working on developing approximately 19 methodologies for the Paris Agreement Carbon Credit Mechanism (PACM), with several expected to be approved by mid-2026 [3] - The global carbon market is characterized by significant differences in national economic development stages, energy structures, and emission reduction costs, complicating the establishment of a unified market [5] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The global carbon market allows countries with high reduction costs to trade, enhancing their motivation to reduce emissions while providing financial support to low-income countries [4] - However, the construction of a truly unified global carbon market faces challenges due to the diverse national circumstances and existing carbon pricing tools [5] - Experts emphasize the importance of gradual progress and the need for flexibility in standards to accommodate the varying capabilities of developing countries [7] Group 4: China's Role - China is viewed as a key player in the alliance, leveraging its strengths in renewable energy and cross-border cooperation to connect developed and developing nations [8] - The country is expected to contribute to a governance system that integrates policy, technology, and capital for effective climate governance [8] - The alliance represents a critical step towards interconnected global carbon markets, with the real test lying in the implementation of detailed rules [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a short-term adjustment, with the market showing signs of stabilization after recent fluctuations. The overall valuation of major companies has improved but remains rational [2][4]. - The report highlights that the fourth quarter is likely to see a slowdown in economic activity compared to the previous quarters, but the risk of a significant downturn is low. Measures such as the implementation of a 500 billion yuan policy financial tool are expected to support the economy [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side adjustments in the steel industry, noting that administrative measures could accelerate the return of industry profits to average levels [2][4]. - The report identifies several companies as undervalued with strong safety margins, suggesting potential investment opportunities [2]. Supply Analysis - Daily molten iron production has decreased by 0.7 thousand tons to 236.2 thousand tons, while steel production has increased, with rebar production growing faster than hot-rolled products [12]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 88.6%, with a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous week [18]. Inventory Analysis - The total inventory of steel has decreased by 3.0% week-on-week, with a significant year-on-year increase of 26.7% [24][26]. - The report notes that the inventory reduction is consistent across both social and mill inventories, indicating a tightening supply situation [24][26]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products has improved, with a week-on-week increase of 3.9% [51]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel has increased by 0.3% [40][41]. Raw Material Analysis - Iron ore prices have strengthened, with increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, while port inventories have slightly decreased [48][60]. - The report indicates that the iron ore price index is currently at 104.8 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.1% [60]. Price and Profit Analysis - The report notes a slight increase in steel prices, with the comprehensive steel price index rising by 0.5% week-on-week [74]. - The current profit margins for long-process steel products remain negative, with costs for rebar and hot-rolled products reported at 3,556 yuan/ton and 3,782 yuan/ton, respectively [74][80].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector experienced a decline of 7.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with specific segments such as long products down by 9.67% and flat products down by 7.38% [2][10] - Despite current supply-demand challenges and overall profit decline, the steel demand is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies aimed at economic growth, particularly in real estate and infrastructure [3][2] - The report suggests that the steel industry is likely to maintain a balanced supply-demand situation, with a focus on high-margin specialty steel companies and leading firms with strong cost control [3][2] Supply Situation - As of November 21, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies is 88.6%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [2][25] - The production of five major steel products reached 7.412 million tons, an increase of 2.08% week-on-week [2][25] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.942 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.90% [2][30] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 100,000 tons, a slight increase of 0.24% week-on-week [2][35] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased by 3.01% week-on-week to 10.294 million tons, while factory inventory also saw a decline of 2.95% to 4.037 million tons [2][43] Steel Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,438.3 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.47% [2][49] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was -30 CNY/ton, while the profit for electric arc furnace-produced construction steel was -112 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 27.74% [2][55] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 793 CNY/ton, up by 0.89% week-on-week [2][72] - The price for coking coal at the main stockpile in Jingtang Port was 1,790 CNY/ton, down by 40 CNY/ton week-on-week [2][72] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle and those with strong competitive advantages in raw material supply [3][2]

Policy Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is soliciting opinions on the "Wind Power Equipment Industry Norms" to promote sustainable development in the wind power equipment manufacturing sector [3][18] - The newly released national standard for "Recycled Materials in Household Appliances" will take effect on May 1, 2026, aiming to regulate the use of recycled materials and promote green development in the industry [4][18] Carbon Emission Management - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced that the steel, cement, and aluminum industries will complete their first carbon emission quota compliance by the end of this year, marking their entry into a carbon trading compliance mechanism [5][6] - The central government has initiated ecological and environmental protection inspections in major energy companies, signaling a commitment to high-level ecological protection and the green transformation of the energy sector [7][18] Energy Projects - The National Development and Reform Commission has approved five flexible power interconnection projects, with a total investment of 24.4 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing inter-provincial power support capabilities [8][18] - China's first high-pressure natural gas long-distance pipeline pressure recovery power generation project has commenced operation, utilizing excess pressure during gas transmission to generate clean electricity [9][10] - The highest-altitude wind power project in China has been connected to the grid, with a total installed capacity of 60 MW, expected to supply clean energy to approximately 120,000 households annually [11][18] Ecological Initiatives - Major ecological protection and restoration projects in the Tibetan Plateau are projected to add approximately 30 million tons of carbon sinks annually, contributing significantly to the country's carbon neutrality goals [12][13] Market Trends - The "Shan Electric into Anhui" ultra-high voltage project has been completed, expected to deliver over 36 billion kWh of electricity annually, with more than half from renewable sources [15][18] - The Yangtze River Delta region has exceeded its annual electricity interconnection target of 180 billion kWh, reflecting a growing trend in electricity market integration [16][18] Industry Insights - The MIIT's new norms for the wind power equipment industry aim to enhance quality control and innovation, encouraging manufacturers to adopt green and intelligent technologies [3][19] - The wind power sector is showing signs of recovery, with increased prices and improved profit margins expected in the coming years, driven by a reduction in costs and enhanced operational efficiency [22][18]

钢材：五大材持续增产，钢价区间震荡 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 目录 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结： GALAXY FUTURES 2 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量207.96万吨（+7.96），热卷小样本产量316.01万吨（+2.35）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日 均236.28万吨（-0.6），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率33.4%（+0.5）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在3436 （折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-230.07元/吨左右，谷电成本3271（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电利润- 65元/吨。近期电炉成本基本持平，但钢材价格小幅上涨，导致电炉利润有所回升，电炉产能利用率有所增长，废钢日 耗在50.78万吨，环比略降；长流程钢利润仍然亏损但继续修复，铁水产量本周小幅下滑，后续仍有下降空 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued the "Quota Allocation Plan for National Carbon Emission Trading Market for Steel, Cement, and Aluminum Smelting Industries for 2024 and 2025," indicating a significant step towards expanding the carbon market to cover major industrial sectors [1][2]. Summary by Sections Carbon Market Expansion - The national carbon market, which started in 2021, has expanded from covering only the power generation sector to now include steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries, marking its first major expansion [1][2]. - The types of greenhouse gases covered have also increased from solely carbon dioxide to include carbon dioxide, tetrafluoromethane, and hexafluoroethane [1]. Quota Allocation Framework - The "Quota Allocation Plan" continues the practice of free allocation of quotas based on carbon emission intensity, linking the quota amount to actual production levels without setting an absolute cap on total emissions [2]. - The focus is on direct emissions during production, excluding indirect emissions from purchased electricity and heat, emphasizing a "big fish, small fish" approach to target major emitters [2]. - The plan highlights the importance of data quality, stating that reliable carbon emission data is essential for an effective market, and introduces advanced monitoring technologies like blockchain and AI to combat data fraud [2]. Future Expansion Plans - Preparations for expanding the carbon market to include the chemical, petrochemical, civil aviation, and paper industries have already begun, with a goal to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 [3]. - The policy direction is clear, adhering to the principle of "mature one, include one," and will expand based on industry development, pollution reduction contributions, data quality, and emission characteristics [3]. - The ongoing improvements in the carbon emission management system and the implementation of reduction measures will enhance the role of the national carbon market in promoting green and low-carbon transformation in the economy and society [3].

Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a roadmap for expanding the national carbon market, aiming to cover major industrial sectors by 2027 [1][2] - The national carbon market currently includes approximately 3,700 key emission units, covering around 8 billion tons of carbon emissions, which accounts for over 60% of the national total [2][3] - The eight key industries targeted for inclusion in the carbon market account for about 75% of China's carbon dioxide emissions [2][3] Summary by Sections Carbon Market Expansion - The Ministry has initiated preparatory work for expanding the carbon market to include the chemical, petrochemical, civil aviation, and paper industries [4] - The expansion will follow a principle of "mature one, include one," based on industry development status and carbon emission characteristics [1][4] Current Market Status - As of August 2025, 1,277 key emission units from newly included industries have opened trading accounts [5] - The carbon market has expanded to include three major industries: steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, with a total of 1,500 key emission units [6] Allocation and Pricing Mechanism - The allocation method for carbon quotas will be similar to that of the power generation sector, with free allocation based on carbon emissions per unit of output for 2024 and 2025 [6][7] - By 2027, a new mechanism combining total quota control and both free and paid allocation will be implemented, potentially raising carbon prices from around 50 yuan/ton to between 130 and 180 yuan/ton [7][10] Industry Impact - Different industries will experience varying impacts from the carbon market, with power, steel, cement, and aluminum sectors being better prepared compared to the more complex petrochemical and chemical industries [7][8] - The paper industry, primarily composed of small and medium-sized enterprises, may face significant cost pressures and management challenges [7] Data Quality and Management - Ensuring data quality is critical for the carbon market's success, with the Ministry planning to enhance the monitoring and verification (MRV) system [5][11] - The Ministry will also upgrade infrastructure to support the expanded carbon market, focusing on regulatory capacity and data security [4][11] Future Directions - The carbon market aims to establish a transparent and unified pricing mechanism by 2030, with a focus on effective emission reduction and a robust regulatory framework [10][12] - The transition to a paid allocation system and total quota control is a key focus for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" period [12]