今年开启的这轮牛市行情，不是一个短期的行情，也不是到4000点就结束的行情，而是一轮慢牛长期行 情，有可能会持续两到三年以上。而现在，大盘到4000点左右出现一定的多空分歧也是正常的。正是因 为存在多空分歧，那反而说明行情并没有结束。因为行情结束的时候往往是一致预期的时候，华尔街有 句名言叫"一致的时候是最危险的时候"。当所有人都积极看多、拼命看多，那么这时候行情才会真正的 见顶。而多空分歧大，说明市场行情还是在上涨的过程之中，还有很多人没有看多，也就是说后续还会 有很多增量资金进来。 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 今年开启的这轮牛市行情，不是一个短期的行情，也不是到4000点就结束的行情，而是一轮慢牛长期行 情，有可能会持续两到三年以上。而现在，大盘到4000点左右出现一定的多空分歧也是正常的。正是因 为存在多空分歧，那反而说明行情并没有结束。因为行情结束的时候往往是一致预期的时候，华尔街有 句名言叫"一致的时候是最危险的时候"。当所有 ...

摘要 受关税情绪改善和 AI 投资远期消费预期的推动，铜价在经历 KK 事件干 扰后反弹，但因缺乏持续利好兑现，价格在接近历史新高时开始调整， 目标价位设定在 83,000 元/吨，旨在挤出 AI 叙事泡沫。 美国库存累积对伦敦和中国市场产生虹吸效应，影响市场交易行为。智 利国家铜业公司 Codelco 签署 2026 年长单深水报价大幅提升，表明贸 易商押注 COMEX 价格持续高于 LME 价格。 中国原材料联合谈判小组计划降低 2026 年度冶炼厂产能负荷 10%以上， 可能导致短期供应紧张，共同驱动近期铜价破位上行，显示结构性缺口 行情仍然存在。 尽管全球铜供应总量可能在 2026 年保持平衡，但由于下游消费和供应 均存在弹性，实际缺口未必显现，然而，关税威胁、Codelco 高额长单 和中国冶炼厂减产等事件引发了对结构性短缺的关注。 Codelco 大幅提高 2026 年长单深水报价，贸易商预期 COMEX 价格将 持续高于 LME 价格，导致大量货物将流向美国市场，锁定部分供应，加 剧其他地区供应紧张。 Q&A 2025 年铜市场的结构性牛市是如何形成的？ 2025 年的铜市场经历了显著的波动，形 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.15% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.02% [1] - The overall trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.7972 trillion yuan, a decrease of 29 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - Technology sectors showed strong performance, particularly in communications, artificial intelligence, and consumer electronics, while military, oil, and gaming sectors lagged [1] Investment Sentiment - The risk appetite in the market is currently neutral, with over 3,500 stocks declining [1] - The market is stabilizing after a decline last week, with H-shares showing a higher recovery [2] - The expansion of excess liquidity and sustained investor optimism are seen as key drivers for the ongoing bull market [2] AI and Technology Sector - Google is entering competition with Nvidia by negotiating with Meta for the use of TPU chips, potentially capturing 10% of Nvidia's annual revenue [3] - Alibaba's cloud business exceeded expectations with a 34% year-on-year revenue growth, and AI-related products have seen triple-digit growth for nine consecutive quarters [4] - The demand for AI applications is leading to significant cost savings across various industries, with estimates suggesting a reduction of 9-11% in costs [4] Economic Indicators - Recent comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials indicate a rising expectation for interest rate cuts, with the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in December increasing from 40% to 80% [6] - The bond market is showing weakness despite favorable conditions, with the 30-year treasury yield rising by 2.2 basis points [9] Geopolitical Developments - U.S. President Trump is advancing a new peace plan for Ukraine, with ongoing negotiations and potential concessions from Russia [8] - The geopolitical landscape continues to influence market dynamics, particularly in safe-haven assets like gold, which has recently surpassed $4,100 per ounce [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.15% to 3864.18 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.7972 trillion yuan, a decrease of 29 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Technology sectors showed strong performance, particularly in communications, artificial intelligence, and consumer electronics, while sectors like oil and gaming lagged behind [1] Investment Sentiment - The overall risk appetite in the market is neutral, with more than 3,500 stocks declining [1] - Small-cap stocks underperformed compared to large-cap stocks, and growth stocks outperformed value stocks, indicating a preference for growth-oriented investments [1] Structural Market Dynamics - Despite a slight stabilization in the A-share market since last Friday's decline, the H-share market has shown a higher degree of recovery [1] - The primary drivers for the A-share market's upward movement are the expansion of excess liquidity and sustained investor optimism, suggesting that the bull market is not over yet [1] Equity Market Insights - The outlook remains cautiously optimistic for the equity market, with a structural bull market anticipated, focusing on sectors with growth potential and dividend yields [2] - Key sectors to watch include AI, anti-involution, and exports, with recommendations for specific ETFs in communications, chips, and renewable energy [2] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market has shown weaker performance than expected, despite favorable conditions such as lower PMI and ongoing deflationary pressures [3] - The yield on 30-year government bonds has increased by 2.2 basis points, indicating a lack of strong buying momentum [3] - Future movements in the bond market may depend on the central bank's decisions regarding interest rate cuts, with the potential for delayed easing due to manageable growth targets [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Chinese stock market is entering a "slow bull market" phase, with expectations of a 30-40% increase in key indices by the end of 2027, driven by policy support, profit growth, and valuation recovery [8] - The report highlights that 800 listed companies have seen significant shareholder increases totaling 115.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.69%, with transportation and banking sectors showing the highest increases [3] - The report notes that the MSCI China index has rebounded 80% from its 2022 low, although it has faced four major pullbacks, indicating a volatile recovery path [8] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the Chinese stock market is transitioning from a "hope" phase to a "growth" phase, with profit realization becoming a key driver [8] - It mentions that the expected EPS growth rate will accelerate to 12% from 2025 to 2027, supported by AI capital expenditure, government policies to reduce internal competition, and increased overseas revenue for Chinese companies [9] - The report states that the valuation of the Chinese stock market is not overvalued, with a forward P/E ratio around 13 times, indicating significant room for valuation recovery compared to global equities [10] Group 3 - The report identifies that domestic capital is structurally migrating towards the stock market, with household financial assets in equities at only 14%, suggesting a potential reallocation space of trillions of yuan [11] - It highlights that retail sentiment indicators are not at extreme levels, leaving room for incremental capital inflows into the market [11] - The report suggests an investment strategy of "buying on dips" and focusing on sectors such as internet/AI technology, services, insurance, and materials [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that with the implementation of the "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds" and the A-share market entering a "slow bull" phase, the market environment has significantly improved, leading to a potential revaluation of active equity funds [1][2] - Despite a weak performance of active equity funds from 2022 to 2024, 2025 is expected to be a crucial turning point, with many active funds showing positive stock selection capabilities and achieving significant excess returns in a structural market [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on thematic investments in state-owned enterprises, technology, and consumption sectors, while also identifying high-scoring individual stocks based on solid fundamentals to uncover stable alpha [1][2] Group 2 - The active fund performance is expected to improve in 2025, with 66% of active funds outperforming the CSI 800 index, particularly those concentrated in advanced manufacturing themes, indicating that a "core + satellite" investment strategy is effective in the current structural bull market [2] - The ETF market has seen a significant breakthrough in both quantity and scale since 2025, with the total ETF scale surpassing 5.7 trillion yuan, an increase of over 2 trillion yuan from the end of 2024, particularly in broad-based and leading industry themes [3] - The report outlines a multi-dimensional ETF quantitative allocation strategy that captures diverse returns, focusing on macro timing strategies, momentum strategies, and advanced techniques to achieve stable risk-adjusted returns in 2026 [4]

大盘在4000点三次磨蹭后，果然又是横久必跌、再次败阵下来。而本以为周一黑的，但没想的是一周黑，盘面个股从周二到周 五四日，每日都差不多8成个股杀跌，周五更是超过九成的杀跌，且还是暴风雨的重挫。 而经过周五的杀跌，很多人的心态都炸了。龙轩身边有部分朋友就很沮丧，有的说把全年的利润都打没了、有的则直接说这轮 不是牛市、还有人被套较深，咨询龙轩怎么办？ 对此，龙轩之前就说这是结构性的牛市，因此对于本周的持续杀跌，我们要分开来看。另外就是仓位的问题，只要不是重仓 的，其实本周这种级别的杀跌根本就是小儿科。 首先科技股方面，这是市场天，而经过周五暴跌后，龙轩认为天已经变了。主要导火线之一就是美股科技也在全线回落，且像 软银等机构都开始全线清仓英伟达，说明机构对后市科技的谨慎，美股闪迪周四更是一夜暴跌20%！ 但当前这些板块最大的问题是，阶段性涨幅巨大，很多个股从4月贸易战地点算起，都是大几倍、甚至十几倍的涨幅，这把未 来几年的业绩预期都打满了。 而2020-2021新能源迎来戴维斯双击的时候，也是出现如此爆发的。当时机构也普遍看好业绩，但过后大家都知道迎来了杀估 值，然后只有宁王、阳光电源等少数龙头今年走出。当前的A ...

当前这轮下跌，从市场结构和资金行为角度看，更接近于： 在阶段性牛市框架下，高位品种的集中出货 + 指数维稳下的结构性换手。 不是典型的流动性危机式崩盘，而是： 通过"指数护住、个股先跌"的方式， 实现高位筹码向后手资金、尤其是中小投资者的有序转移， 为后续一轮指数级别的反弹乃至趋势延伸，腾出"空间"和"换手基础"。 "最后砸盘"更多是盈利兑现+筹码再分配的技术动作，而不是趋势逆转的根本性信号。 二、市场表象与核心差异：指数没怎么跌，持股体验很差 1. 指数层面：被权重股"托着"走 最近一段时间，上证指数在银行、保险、白酒等权重板块的轮番拉升下，表面波动有限： 银行、保险：估值在1倍PB附近，处于"政策维稳+高股息"功能性角色； 白酒、部分消费龙头：在盈利相对稳定+情绪修复下，阶段性担当"护盘工具"。 结果是： 指数回撤不深，看上去"风险不大"； 但权重护盘掩盖了中小市值、高弹性品种的持续阴跌。 2. 个股层面：提前下跌 + 指数跌时再补刀 这次大家难受在两点： 很多个股从 9 月起就开始阴跌，尤其是高位的科技资产； 当指数这几天开始补跌时，个股并不是提前跌完，而是"继续大跌"——体验远比指数曲线惨烈。 市场结 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current phase of the A-share market, analyzing it through the lens of the classic bull market three-stage theory, and emphasizes the importance of balancing offensive and defensive strategies in investment as the market transitions from valuation recovery to performance-driven growth [4][6][25]. Group 1: Bull Market Phases - The bull market is divided into three stages: valuation recovery, performance-driven growth, and emotional-driven bubble [6][7]. - The first stage, characterized by policy shifts and risk appetite recovery, has been completed as of October 2024, with the market returning to historical valuation levels [7][9]. - The second stage, currently in progress, focuses on performance verification, with A-share companies' profits growing by 5.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, and significant growth in sectors like TMT and manufacturing [9][10]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The TMT sector showed strong performance, with electronic profits up 45.3% year-on-year, and AI-related indices seeing profits increase by 83.3% [10]. - The midstream manufacturing sector also performed well, with profits in the power equipment and new energy sectors growing by 52.5% [10]. - The energy and materials sector benefited from policy changes, with industrial metals and precious metals seeing profit increases of 45.2% and 58.7%, respectively [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Strategy - The current market dynamics suggest a need for a balanced strategy, moving from an aggressive "only attack" approach to a more defensive "balance attack and defense" strategy [18][25]. - A suggested allocation strategy includes maintaining a 50% equity position, diversifying across growth, stable, high-dividend, and cyclical sectors to mitigate risks [19][20]. - The article warns that if the market enters the third phase characterized by bubble-like valuations and extreme market sentiment, a shift to a defensive strategy will be necessary [22][23]. Group 4: Long-term Considerations - The article highlights the importance of sustainable performance growth, questioning whether the current high growth in tech stocks can be maintained amid macroeconomic challenges [13][14]. - It draws parallels with the U.S. market's slow bull experience, emphasizing the need for solid earnings support for a sustainable bull market [14]. - The article concludes that for the A-share market to transition into a long-term bull market, several factors, including macroeconomic stability and improved corporate governance, must be addressed [16][25].

Group 1 - The market is experiencing fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, indicating significant divergence between bulls and bears as investors take profits towards year-end [1][2] - This bull market is characterized by a "dumbbell" structure, with low valuation, high dividend sectors like banks driving the index up, while tech innovation sectors such as AI and semiconductors show strong performance [2][3] - The current bull market is supported by policy initiatives and capital inflows, with A-shares and H-shares being seen as undervalued compared to US stocks, attracting global investment [3] Group 2 - The ongoing bull market is expected to stimulate consumer spending, with a potential shift from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market by 2026, enhancing consumer confidence and economic growth [4] - The evolution of the bull market is anticipated to follow a sequence where tech stocks lead, followed by mid-cap stocks, and finally traditional sectors, with a focus on balanced portfolio allocation [5] - In the tech sector, the demand for computing power is expected to rise, with significant partnerships highlighting the strategic importance of computing infrastructure, suggesting investment opportunities in related technologies [6][7]