结构性牛市

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各大券商密集召开中期策略会 普遍看好下半年行情
Shen Zhen Shang Bao· 2025-05-29 06:09
Core Viewpoint - Major brokerages are optimistic about the A-share market in the second half of 2025, anticipating a structural bull market driven by multiple policy benefits and industrial upgrades [1][2]. Market Outlook - Brokerages such as Industrial Securities, CITIC Securities, and Everbright Securities predict a "structural bull" market for the capital market in the second half of 2025 [2]. - Industrial Securities' chief strategist Zhang Yidong believes that A-shares will exhibit characteristics of "stable index, structural bull" in the long term, highlighting the attractive valuation of Chinese assets [2]. - CITIC Securities' chief A-share strategist Qiu Xiang expects a bull market for equity assets starting from Q4 2025, with a significant shift in market style towards core assets [2]. - Everbright Securities' chief strategist Zhang Yusheng notes that the gradual recovery of fundamentals, along with macro and micro liquidity, will drive market growth, leading to a structural bull market [2][3]. Sector Preferences - Investment opportunities in the second half of the year should focus on four key areas according to Industrial Securities' chief strategist Zhang Qiyao: technology trends marked by DeepSeek, domestic service consumption, dividend assets, and sectors like gold and military [4]. - Qiu Xiang emphasizes the importance of increasing allocations to Hong Kong stocks and focusing on leading companies in emerging and traditional industries [4]. - Open Source Securities' chief strategist Wei Jixing suggests five focus areas: domestic consumption, technology growth in AI and robotics, industries with improved costs, sectors benefiting from overseas opportunities, and stable dividend stocks [4]. - Li Chao from Zheshang Securities advocates for a focus on dividend-related sectors and technology, anticipating adjustments in institutional allocation due to new public fund regulations [4].
聚焦券商2025年中期策略 A股升势可期、科技消费引领结构性机遇
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-05-23 15:54
兴业证券全球首席策略分析师张忆东表示,在2025年下半年乃至更长远的未来,中国资本市场大有可 为,A股有望呈现出"指数稳,结构牛"的局面。中国资产有望迎来价值重估的配置机遇,关键性亮点在 于科技和新兴消费两方面。 立足当下,展望未来,光大证券策略首席分析师张宇生从流动性视角切入,他认为:"基本面的修复进 程或将呈现温和且渐进的特征,宏观、微观流动性共振与产业升级有望驱动市场上涨,在中长期资金有 望成为市场重要增量资金之一的背景下,A股市场或将呈现结构性牛市上涨特征。" "2025年下半年,资本市场有望呈现'股债双牛'的走势。"浙商证券首席经济学家李超表示,策略方面, 以红利为本,以科技突围。红利相关板块可能受益于公募新规下机构的配置方向调整,科技板块也有望 出现一定的超额收益。 有望呈现"股债双牛"走势 浙商证券以"柳暗花明,股债双牛"明确市场趋势,开源证券聚焦"大变局下,投资范式的变与不变",兴 业证券提出"有惊无险,乱中取胜"。上述关键词共同传递出一个核心判断:新一轮价值发现进程已悄然 启动,资本市场正迎来新的发展机遇。 近期,各大券商密集召开2025年中期策略会,围绕下半年A股市场走势与投资策略展开深度 ...
还在学习新知识?你看不上的板块,已悄然新高——道达投资手记
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-21 09:07
Group 1 - The core driver for the formation of a bull market is the recovery of the fundamentals, with liquidity easing and industrial trends often creating a resonance effect [1] - When the fundamentals improve comprehensively, it typically leads to a full bull market; during a structural improvement phase, if it resonates with liquidity easing and industrial trends, it may also give rise to a bull market [2] - The distinction between a structural bull market and a full bull market depends on the main sources of incremental capital; individual investors tend to drive a broad market rally, while institutional investors are more likely to create structural opportunities [1][2] Group 2 - The current recovery process of the fundamentals is expected to be mild and gradual, with macro and micro liquidity resonance and industrial upgrades likely to drive market increases [2] - The easing of monetary policy in both China and the US is anticipated to provide liquidity support, as domestic residents accelerate their asset allocation towards equity markets in a declining interest rate environment [2] - Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence technology and the "AI+" initiative are expected to create an industrial revolution, leading to a comprehensive upgrade in the TMT sector, which may attract incremental capital inflows [2] Group 3 - The conclusion drawn is that the three-dimensional resonance of fundamentals, industry, and capital markets suggests that A-shares may enter a new cycle of structural bull market [3] - The market has experienced a significant rally since late September last year, followed by nearly eight months of wide fluctuations, leading to skepticism about the medium to long-term market outlook [3] - While quantitative funds have influenced profit expectations, there are methods to navigate or follow new profit models in the market [3][4] Group 4 - The market is currently characterized by a rotation trend, with sectors such as scarce resources, gold concepts, solid-state batteries, and innovative drugs showing significant gains [10] - Despite the focus on various sectors, some overlooked sectors like pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and water utilities have recently reached new highs this year [10] - Blue-chip stocks such as Kelun Pharmaceutical, BYD, and several banks have also reached historical highs, indicating that institutional funds are actively participating in the market [11]
A股有望开启结构性牛市新周期,沪深300ETF(159919)配置价值进一步凸显
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-20 02:26
截至2025年5月20日 09:55,沪深300指数上涨0.19%,成分股泰格医药上涨5.39%,科伦药业上涨5.03%,国轩高科上涨4.76%,智飞生物上涨4.26%,闻泰科 技(维权)上涨3.24%。沪深300ETF(159919)红盘震荡。 数据显示,截至2025年4月30日,沪深300指数前十大权重股分别为贵州茅台、宁德时代、中国平安、招商银行、长江电力、美的集团、比亚迪、兴业银行、 紫金矿业、东方财富,前十大权重股合计占比22.85%。 日前,中国证监会副主席在深交所2025全球投资者大会上表示,目前A股估值水平仍处于相对低位,沪深300市盈率12.6,明显低于境外市场主要指数,配置 价值进一步凸显。 光大证券表示,基本面、产业与资金面三维共振,A股有望开启结构性牛市新周期。展望未来,基本面修复进程或将呈现温和且渐进的特征,宏微观流动性 共振与产业升级有望驱动市场上涨,而在中长期资金有望成为市场重要增量资金之一的背景下,市场或呈结构性牛市上涨特征。 没有股票账户的场外投资者还可通过沪深300ETF联接基金(160724)低位布局A股核心资产。 流动性方面,沪深300ETF盘中成交5892.03万元。 ...
复盘A股历史牛市!猜想:现在会是起点吗?
光大证券研究· 2025-05-19 09:14
Group 1 - The article distinguishes between comprehensive bull markets and structural bull markets in the A-share market, highlighting their different market characteristics [1] - Since 2000, there have been four bull markets in A-shares: comprehensive bull markets from 2005-2007 and 2013-2015, and structural bull markets from 2016-2018 and 2019-2021 [1][3] - Comprehensive bull markets are characterized by higher average daily increases in the Shanghai Composite Index and market turnover rates compared to structural bull markets, with a greater proportion of stocks rising over 100% and equity funds yielding over 100% [1][3] Group 2 - The core driver of bull markets is the recovery of fundamentals, with liquidity easing and industrial trends often creating a resonance effect [3] - Comprehensive bull markets typically arise when fundamentals improve broadly, as seen in the 2005-2007 bull market, while structural bull markets can occur during periods of structural improvement in fundamentals combined with liquidity easing and industrial trends [3][4] - The 2005-2007 bull market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 502%, with nominal GDP maintaining double-digit growth and A-share net profit growth rebounding from -5.8% to 63.5% [4] Group 3 - The 2013-2015 bull market was driven by a combination of monetary easing in China and the U.S., along with the influx of leveraged funds, resulting in a 164% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [4] - The structural bull markets from 2016-2018 and 2019-2021 were influenced by improvements in fundamentals and inflows of northbound capital, with the latter period seeing a 49% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [4] - The article suggests that the A-share market may enter a new cycle of structural bull markets driven by the three-dimensional resonance of fundamentals, industry, and capital [4][5] Group 4 - Looking ahead, the recovery of fundamentals is expected to be gradual, with macro and micro liquidity resonating with industrial upgrades to drive market growth [5] - The potential for simultaneous monetary easing in China and the U.S. could lead to a shift of domestic assets towards equity markets, supported by a slowdown in IPOs and restrictions on shareholder reductions [5] - The article posits that while a comprehensive bull market may be unlikely due to the broad scope of the A-share market, new incremental capital could drive a structural bull market, with 2025 being a potential starting point [5]
A500指数ETF(159351)上周日均成交额超25亿元,机构:A股有望开启结构性牛市新周期
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-05-19 02:12
5月19日,A股三大指数集体低开,中证A500指数截至发稿跌0.45%,成分股中,海格通信涨停,电投 能源、宁波港、长春高新、高能环境等跟涨。 Wind金融终端数据显示,A500指数ETF(159351)上周(5月12日-5月16日)日均成交额达25.32亿元。 截至5月16日,该ETF最新流通规模143.68亿元,最新份额148.43亿份。 A500指数ETF(159351)紧密跟踪新一代标杆指数中证A500指数,该指数优选各行业市值代表性强、 表征行业龙头的500只股票,兼顾大市值的同时均衡覆盖A股各行业核心龙头资产。此外,该指数在电 子、电力设备、医药生物、计算机等行业权重更大,成长属性更强,实现了"核心资产"与"新质生产 力"的双轮驱动。A500指数ETF(159351)还配备了场外联接基金(A类022453;C类022454)。 光大证券表示,基本面、产业与资金面三维共振,A股有望开启结构性牛市新周期。展望未来,基本面 修复进程或将呈现温和且渐进的特征,宏微观流动性共振与产业升级有望驱动市场上涨,而在中长期资 金有望成为市场重要增量资金之一的背景下,市场或呈结构性牛市上涨特征。 (本文机构观点来自持 ...
中美关税博弈的经济逻辑与中国关键抓手!中邮证券黄付生专业解读
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 05:49
Core Viewpoint - The recent joint statement from the China-US Geneva economic talks on May 12 is seen as a potential turning point in easing tensions between the two nations, with significant tariff reductions announced [1][2]. Economic Rebalancing - The joint statement indicates a notable decrease in tariffs, with China reducing tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% within the first 90 days, while the US will lower tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% [2][3]. - A 24% tariff will be suspended for 90 days, allowing for negotiations before July [3]. US Economic Context - The US has historically maintained high tariffs, averaging around 30%, which has been a part of its economic development strategy [3]. - The current economic situation suggests that the US cannot revert to pre-April 2 conditions, with markets anticipating fiscal easing from China and tax cuts from the US [3]. US Fiscal Pressure - As of March 2025, the US national debt is projected to reach approximately $36.6 trillion, with a significant portion of low-interest bonds maturing between 2025 and 2027, leading to increased interest payments [4]. - The US government is using tariff increases as a means to alleviate fiscal pressure, with potential tariff revenues significantly exceeding current levels [4][5]. Chinese Economic Strategy - China is focusing on boosting domestic consumption, particularly in the service sector, to counteract economic pressures [9]. - The first quarter of 2023 saw a GDP growth rate of 5.4%, driven by strong exports and a gradual recovery in consumption [9]. Key Economic Drivers for 2025 - The "Two New" and "Two Heavy" initiatives are identified as critical for China's economic development in 2025, focusing on equipment upgrades and major strategic projects [10][11]. - The expected policy support for these initiatives could reach around 3 trillion yuan, with investment multipliers anticipated to be higher than in 2024 [11]. Stimulus Measures - Six potential measures to stimulate the economy include expanding fertility subsidies, injecting capital into state-owned banks, increasing consumer subsidies, advancing supply-side reforms, issuing special government bonds, and raising rural pension levels [12][13][14][15][16]. Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to enter a "long-cycle, structural bull market," with monetary policy supporting the stock market while fiscal measures are necessary for economic recovery [16]. - The bond market may face risks in the second half of the year, with a potential upward trend in yields as economic conditions stabilize [16].
中美“联合声明”重磅发布 A股重启结构牛 A500指数ETF(159351)收盘上涨1.15%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-12 08:17
Group 1 - The A-share market continues its strong performance in May, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3369.24 points, up 0.82% [1] - The A500 Index ETF (159351) saw a trading volume of 2.325 billion yuan, ranking fourth among similar products in the market, with a turnover rate of 16.11%, the second highest [1] - The A500 Index ETF (159351) experienced a net subscription of 33 million units, indicating optimistic market expectations [1] Group 2 - The recent high-level economic and trade talks between China and the U.S. in Geneva resulted in substantial progress and important consensus, with both sides agreeing to establish a consultation mechanism [2] - Short-term outlook suggests a potential strong recovery in the A-share market as external uncertainties diminish, while long-term prospects indicate a possible structural bull market driven by technological advancements [2] - The A500 Index ETF, which tracks the CSI A500 Index, consists of 500 large-cap stocks with balanced industry distribution, providing investors with a tool to access representative A-share companies [3]
A股走出了5年前的一幕,股民:就好像剧本写的一样!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 11:27
最近的股市走势,简直像极了一场让人摸不着头脑的心理战。不少新入市的朋友开始有点慌了:前一阵子,大盘连续拉出几根小阳线,仿佛春天的脚步临 近,希望在心头悄悄萌芽;可还没高兴几天,画风突变,小阴线接连出现,像是突如其来的冷空气,把刚燃起的信心又浇灭了。 其实,当前的A股走势与5年前的一幕十分相像,就好像是剧本写的一样。当然了,向上收复A股那个跳空向下的缺口势必是大概率事件,毕竟,缺口必补的 理论在为数众多的技术派股民心中是非常正确的。对于经验丰富的老股民来说,真正值得关注的不是眼前的恐慌性下跌,而是那个被"打穿"的缺口何时补 上、补完之后的走势。大跌之下,散户往往选择"死守",不到万不得已不愿割肉认赔。毕竟,"割肉"不只是账户上的亏损,更像是对自我判断的否定,心理 上很难接受。因此,真正的抛压其实并不在暴跌之时,而是在随后的反弹中悄然释放——当股价略有回升,一些心力交瘁的散户便迫不及待地选择离场,生 怕再次被套牢。 这时候,老股民就要看清一个关键节点:一旦补缺完成、市场情绪回暖,那些曾经的恐慌盘就可能变成推动行情的动力。毕竟,市场的每一次反转,都是由 这些情绪与行为的转换点所驱动。看懂这一点,才能在纷繁复杂的K线 ...
本轮全面牛市的顶点
集思录· 2025-03-25 14:44
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current bull market in A-shares, predicting that it will peak on October 8, 2024, at 3674.40 points, emphasizing that the market is currently overvalued with a market capitalization of 90 trillion yuan at 3000+ points, compared to 30 trillion yuan previously [2][12]. Group 1 - The current bull market is expected to peak at 3674.40 points on October 8, 2024, due to excessive market capitalization [2]. - The market's current valuation is significantly higher than in the past, with a market cap of 90 trillion yuan at 3000+ points compared to 30 trillion yuan previously [2][12]. - The article suggests that while a comprehensive bull market may peak, structural bull markets will continue due to insufficient funds and the tendency to speculate on smaller stocks [2]. Group 2 - The author expresses skepticism about the ability to predict bull or bear markets, suggesting a more flexible approach to investment strategies, such as maintaining a half-position [4]. - The article highlights the importance of market sentiment and the need for investors to adapt their positions based on emotional responses rather than rigid predictions [4][10]. - It is noted that the overall market is cyclical, and while individual stocks may not perform well, the index as a whole can still show upward trends [10][11]. Group 3 - The article references the growth of M2 money supply, which is projected to increase from 280 trillion yuan in 2023 to 320 trillion yuan in 2025, indicating that liquidity in the market is not a concern [8][12]. - Historical data shows that previous bull markets have seen significant increases in trading volumes, suggesting that the current market has the potential for similar growth despite recent trends [13]. - The author argues that the market is not lacking in total funds, and as long as investor confidence remains, high trading volumes can be expected [12][13].