在全球不确定性持续发酵的背景下，本周贵金属行情在基本面与技术面的共振中加速演绎，黄金与白银双双刷新历史高点，凸显避险情绪仍处于高位。 ▲ATFX图 在这一背景下，黄金价格本周一度冲高至 4642 美元附近，技术结构上仍运行在明确的上升通道之中，但短线已显露出高位震荡与回调压力。结合图表结构 来看，当前金价自高位回落后，正考验通道中轨与短期趋势支撑区域，约 4600–4580 美元一带构成第一道关键支撑，若该区域能够稳住，价格更可能以高位 整理的方式消化前期涨幅，并为后续再度测试 4640 美元上方压力区积蓄动能；反之，若跌破通道下沿及 4580 美元附近支撑，则技术结构将转向更深层的修 正，回调目标可能下移至 4510 美元一线，该位置对应前期突破平台与重要结构支撑。值得注意的是，当前走势更符合"强趋势中的高位震荡"特征，而非趋 势反转信号，这与基本面尚未出现实质性缓解高度一致。白银方面，价格表现明显强于黄金，反映市场情绪并未完全转向防御，而是处于避险与投机并存阶 段，工业属性叠加资金推动，使白银在趋势延续阶段放大波动，同时也提高了短线回撤风险。整体贵金属板块中，铂金与钯金同步走强，显示资金正从单一 避险交易 ...

导读：记得2025和2024年初，我们发布基金经理TOP 100榜单时，都是主动权益面临"枪林弹雨"的市场 环境。2024年发布榜单时，A股市场刚刚经历了历史上第二大单月跌幅，股价平均跌21%，基金普遍跌 15%。2025年发布榜单时，A股市场也是开年连续四天下跌。但每一次我们都说，那时候买主动权益基 金，就是能赚到钱的！ 去年初发布榜单时，我还说过，在指数基金大爆发的时代，具有阿尔法的主动权益基金更有价值！今 年，我还要说一句话： 主动权益基金会继续跑赢指数基金。我们也看好指数基金的大时代，但我认为 主动权益基金正在回归！我们很少预测市场，因为没这个能力。但今天 我敢比较自信的说，A股市场正 在一轮新的结构性牛市中。而且这一轮牛市下来，主动权益基金作为整体，会跑赢沪深300宽基指数 （当然，指数的波动大概率更低）。 和往常一样，这份榜单倾注了我和零城投资的心血。为了打磨每一个名字，我们都花了很多时间讨论。 从去年整个12月，我们两一直在讨论榜单的名单。也和往常一样，这是一份完全客观独立的榜单。我们 没有提前和任何基金公司、基金经理做过沟通。最后，这只是一份我们心中的主动权益基金经理"精选 池"，不代表任何奖 ...

导读：记得2025和2024年初，我们发布基金经理TOP 100榜单时，都是主动权益面临"枪林弹雨"的市场环境。2024年发布榜单时，A股市场刚刚经 历了历史上第二大单月跌幅，股价平均跌21%，基金普遍跌15%。2025年发布榜单时，A股市场也是开年连续四天下跌。但每一次我们都说，那时候 买主动权益基金，就是能赚到钱的！ 去年初发布榜单时，我还说过，在指数基金大爆发的时代，具有阿尔法的主动权益基金更有价值！今年，我还要说一句话： 主动权益基金会继续跑赢 指数基金。 我们也看好指数基金的大时代，但我认为主动权益基金正在回归！我们很少预测市场，因为没这个能力。但今天 我敢比较自信的说，A股 市场正在一轮新的结构性牛市中。 而且这一轮牛市下来，主动权益基金作为整体，会跑赢沪深300宽基指数（当然，指数的波动大概率更低）。 和往常一样，这份榜单倾注了我和零城投资的心血。为了打磨每一个名字，我们都花了很多时间讨论。从去年整个12月，我们两一直在讨论榜单的名 单。也和往常一样，这是一份完全客观独立的榜单。我们没有提前和任何基金公司、基金经理做过沟通。最后，这只是一份我们心中的主动权益基金 经理"精选池"，不代表任何奖项， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong upward trend in gold prices driven by escalating global geopolitical risks, particularly involving Iran and the U.S. [2] - Gold prices reached a closing price of $4626.41 per ounce, with an increase of nearly 0.9%, and hit a record high of $4642.77 during trading [2] - Economic uncertainty is providing additional support for gold, as U.S. retail sales grew by 0.6%, exceeding expectations, yet inflation data remains weak, sustaining risk-averse sentiment [3] Group 2 - The current gold market shows signs of a short-term peak, with insufficient upward momentum and a double top pattern forming near the $4640 level [4] - The four-hour chart indicates that gold prices are consolidating at high levels, with a potential for significant declines following prolonged sideways movement [4] - The presence of frequent upper shadows in the candlestick patterns suggests a weakening bullish force, with the 50-day moving average indicating a downward trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals futures have seen a significant rise, with gold and silver prices reaching historic highs due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets, alongside expectations of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.76% to $4,633.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures surged by 7.93% to $93.19 per ounce [3][5]. - Spot silver briefly rose over 7%, marking the first time it surpassed the $93 per ounce threshold, and spot gold reached a new record high of $4,643 per ounce [3][5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Allegiance Gold's COO, Alex Ebkarian, indicated that the demand from various buyers is driving the market into a structural bull phase, suggesting a strong future for gold and silver [4][7]. - Ebkarian forecasts that precious metals will maintain an upward trend throughout the first quarter, with short-term predictions for silver prices ranging between $100 and $144 [5][7].

2026 年开局之际，全球投资者正加大对中国股市和人民币的押注力度。在全球不确定性上升的背景 下，这一举措标志着资金正更果断地转向中国资产。 从高盛集团到法国兴业银行旗下的伯恩斯坦研究公司，多家全球投资机构均上调了对这一全球第二大股 票市场的评级，理由是其估值具备吸引力、产业政策持续发力以及盈利前景向好。 在中国官方允许人民币汇率突破 1 美元兑 7 元这一关键关口后，市场参与者也在加码做多人民币，部分 机构预测人民币汇率年内有望升至 1 美元兑 6.25 元的高位。花旗集团、法国巴黎银行资产管理公司以 及美国银行等机构均对人民币持看多立场。 全球机构对中国资产的看涨声浪日益高涨，而这一背景是中国在去年实现了罕见的股汇双涨。这种良性 循环效应或进一步重塑市场对中国资产的信心。与此同时，全球第二大经济体的多个领域展现出超预期 韧性 —— 出口势头强劲、制造业活动持续回暖、银行体系保持稳定，这让市场开始期待，地产、消费 等此前表现滞后的板块或许也值得重新审视。 富兰克林邓普顿研究所投资策略师陈慧玲（克里斯蒂・陈）表示："人民币走强有助于提升以美元计价 的资产回报率，改善市场风险情绪，进而对股市形成支撑。同时，由企 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly betting on Chinese stocks and currency as global uncertainty rises, with major investment firms raising their assessments of China's stock market due to attractive valuations, supportive industrial policies, and optimistic profit outlooks [1][6]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Chinese stock market and the Renminbi have experienced their first simultaneous rise since 2017, with a key index tracking Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies rising over 22% last year, marking it as one of the best-performing major indices globally [4][5]. - The A-share market has reached a four-year high, with the recent trading volume hitting a record 3.65 trillion yuan (approximately 523 billion USD), significantly above the past five-year average daily trading volume of 1.13 trillion yuan [10]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target for the CSI 300 index to 5,200 points, indicating a potential 9% upside from recent closing prices, and has increased its profit growth forecast for China from 4% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 and 2027 [7]. Group 2: Currency Outlook - The Renminbi is expected to strengthen, with predictions of it reaching 6.25 against the USD by the end of 2026, supported by strong exports and trade surpluses [11][12]. - Major financial institutions, including Citigroup and Bank of America, are optimistic about the Renminbi, with forecasts suggesting it could appreciate to 6.8 against the USD this year [11]. - The recent rise in the Renminbi has been linked to improved risk sentiment and returns calculated in USD, which could further support the stock market [4][11]. Group 3: Sectoral Insights - Analysts remain optimistic about various sectors, including healthcare, battery supply chains, and agriculture, with a renewed focus on underperforming sectors like real estate and real estate credit [11]. - The narrative around Chinese artificial intelligence has shifted investor sentiment positively, leading to a potential structural bull market despite economic fundamentals not fully supporting a broad bull run [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the A-share market is more sensitive to liquidity than to macro fundamentals, indicating a structural bull market driven by capital influx rather than corporate performance [3][4][5] - The overall revenue and net profit growth of non-financial listed companies in the first three quarters was only 0.7% and 1.92% respectively, contrasting with the over 20% growth expected for the entire year, highlighting a disconnect between market performance and corporate earnings [4] - The article identifies two types of capital influencing the market: one based on fundamental performance expectations and the other driven by momentum effects, leading to a "stronger gets stronger" dynamic in stock performance [5][6] Group 2 - True momentum sectors are characterized by sustainable growth logic and broad industry trends, supported by measurable performance variables, while pseudo-momentum sectors rely on speculative assumptions and are often driven by market sentiment [10][11] - The article discusses the distinction between true and pseudo momentum, noting that true momentum sectors have strong institutional participation and consistent earnings growth, while pseudo momentum sectors often lack fundamental backing and are more volatile [12][13] - The performance of momentum strategies in the A-share market has been inconsistent, with cross-sectional momentum strategies underperforming due to rapid sector rotations and frequent policy changes [17][18] Group 3 - The article suggests that the market dynamics in 2025 will be more challenging for investors compared to the 2019-2021 period, where both cross-sectional and time-series momentum strategies were effective due to strong macro fundamentals and diverse sector performance [20][21] - It highlights that the lack of counterbalancing sectors in the A-share market has led to extreme price movements, where strong sectors experience rapid increases followed by sharp declines [24] - The article provides four recommendations for investors to navigate the current momentum-driven market, emphasizing the importance of recognizing sector differentiation, maintaining confidence in fundamentally strong stocks, and being sensitive to trend reversal signals [27][30]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent bullish trend in the A-share market, highlighting a significant increase in trading activity and investor sentiment, particularly in the context of a "spring market rally" that has historical precedence [10][21]. Market Performance - As of January 7, the margin trading balance in the A-share market reached 26,047 billion yuan, marking a historic high [4]. - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a rare "16 consecutive days of gains," setting a record for the longest winning streak in its history [6][21]. - From early December to January 9, the Shanghai Composite Index rose approximately 5.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by about 7.41% and 7.58%, respectively [8]. Investor Behavior - There is a noticeable increase in discussions about stocks among the public, indicating heightened interest in the market [5]. - The influx of new investors is evident, with 2.5967 million new accounts opened in December 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.55% [8]. Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed positive signs, with December 2025 recording the best performance of the year [11]. - The CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a return to positive growth [11]. Sector Performance - In 2025, the non-ferrous metals sector led the industry with a remarkable annual increase of 94.73%, while the food and beverage sector saw a decline of 9.69% [9]. - The aerospace equipment sector experienced a significant rise of approximately 146%, with many commercial space stocks seeing gains exceeding 100% [9]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the current market rally may signal a new phase for the stock market, with expectations for continued strength in technology sectors and a gradual recovery in traditional industries [20][22]. - The anticipated "spring market" may extend into 2026, with a focus on technology innovation and consumption recovery as key investment themes [22][23]. - The article emphasizes the importance of patience and strategic investment in quality stocks, particularly as regulatory measures against financial misconduct are expected to tighten [27].

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing a structural bull market, highlighting the investment capabilities of fund managers, with a record-breaking return of 233.29% by Yongying Technology Select Fund, while some funds faced losses of nearly 20% [2][3][14] Performance of Top Funds - Yongying Technology Select Fund achieved a remarkable return of 233.29%, breaking the previous record of 226.24% set by Wang Yawei in 2007, with a 7% advantage [3] - The top ten funds all exceeded a 140% return, with the second place going to Zhonghang Opportunity Navigator at 168.92% and the third to Hongtu Innovation Emerging Industry at 148.64% [6] - Notably, small and medium-sized fund companies dominate the top ten list, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape [6] Performance of Underperforming Funds - Xinyuan Consumption Selection Fund recorded a loss of 19.65%, making it the "loser king" of the year, facing significant challenges in maintaining its viability [7][8] - The fund's scale was only 0.29 billion yuan, far from the 2 billion yuan threshold, leading to a rapid withdrawal of institutional funds [8][9] Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The A-share market showed clear structural bull market characteristics, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 18.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.87%, and the ChiNext Index by 49.57% [14] - Funds that effectively captured the technology sector's momentum achieved substantial returns, while those sticking to traditional sectors like consumption underperformed [14][15] - The investment logic has shifted, with successful funds concentrating on advantageous industries, while those frequently switching strategies struggled to keep pace with market trends [14] Growth of Fixed Income and ETF Products - The total scale of fixed income + products reached 2.52 trillion yuan, a 50% increase from the end of 2024, marking a historical high [11] - The ETF market saw significant growth, with its scale increasing from 3.73 trillion yuan to 6.03 trillion yuan, surpassing Japan to become the largest ETF market in Asia [13]