Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Trump's tariff policies have not resolved the issues of trade and fiscal deficits, leading to increased market concerns about the dollar system and economic volatility [1][3][4] - The article emphasizes that China is one of the three major centers in the global supply chain, with a leading position in manufacturing value added and a balanced export structure across various product categories [5][6][7] - Since the trade friction with the US began in 2018, China's exports to the US have significantly decreased, but overall exports have remained robust due to adjustments in export strategies towards regions like ASEAN, Russia, and India [8] Group 2 - The article discusses the potential for China to form new trade orders with economies such as the EU, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, and the Middle East, focusing on enhancing cooperation and exploring new growth points in external circulation [9]

Exchange Rate Dynamics - The offshore RMB briefly surpassed 7.20, while the Hong Kong dollar approached the strong-side convertibility guarantee at 7.75, prompting concerns about potential currency crises[3] - The Taiwanese dollar experienced a notable increase of over 9% in just two days, a rare occurrence in the currency market[3] - The immediate catalyst for these movements was positive signals from US-China tariff negotiations, with the Chinese Ministry of Commerce indicating an evaluation of talks[3] Central Bank Perspectives - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) appears to maintain a psychological price level for the RMB, with key levels around 7.1 and 7.0 being closely monitored[4] - The current RMB exchange rate is primarily anchored to the USD, with no significant intervention from the PBOC observed at this time[4] - The PBOC is expected to control the appreciation of the RMB post-holiday, seeking a new equilibrium rather than a drastic shift[4] Long-term Currency Trends - The collective movements of Asian currencies may signal a structural change in exchange rate paradigms, indicating ongoing pressure on the USD[5] - The Hong Kong dollar represents a USD-anchored model, raising concerns about its ability to maintain the weak-side guarantee amidst potential USD system shifts[5] - The Taiwanese dollar's recent appreciation reflects a complex interplay of currency undervaluation and deep financial ties to the US, complicating its future trajectory[7] Risk Factors - A potential hardline stance from the US in trade negotiations could lead to further depreciation of the USD, exacerbating the appreciation of Asian currencies and impacting economic stability[8] - If the US imposes terms that force non-USD currency appreciation, it could destabilize the USD system and lead to global market turmoil[8]

南华外汇（美元兑人民币）周报 中美贸易战反复下，中间价仍是汇率锚 周骥 （投资咨询证号：Z0017101） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年4月21日 主要观点 综合通胀、关税政策、美元流动性三个维度的评估，接下来市场的定价逻辑或呈现下述特征：短期交 易窗口或聚焦关税政策的衰退传导效应与持续发酵的美债市场流动性压力；而在中长期维度，投资者或重 新评估美元信用体系稳定性、全球贸易架构及地缘政治格局的潜在重构路径。这种多时间维度的风险定价 机制，折射出全球资本对既有经济秩序可持续性的深层焦虑。因此，在上述时空交叠的定价逻辑演变下， 本质上体现了国际货币体系的结构性隐忧——当短期政策冲击与长期秩序重构形成共振压力，美元体系的 边际承载能力正遭遇系统性拷问。我们认为，接下来的关键点就在于经济，即在当前全球经济的"韧性锦 标赛"中，美元霸权能否维系的核心密钥，或将取决于美国经济能否在这场多维压力测试中保持最后的安 全边际。近期美元兑人民币即期汇率与美元指数的背离走势持续强化，显示人民币汇率形成机制对单一美 元波动的敏感度下降。而随着近期关税事件对汇率形成的压力有所减缓，在稳汇率政策框架（中间 ...

文章来源于：智堡Mikko 本文是笔者基于自身美元体系研究的一些反思，文章更多地是在向内发问，而不是对时下问题的求解， 简言之，我没有答案 。 一些脱离实际的内容纯属本人 YY 虚构，欢迎探讨。 起源 当下的全球经济与货币体系是美式全球化的造物，在摆脱黄金的限制以后，美式全球化运行在 三个关键机制 之上： 美元作为单一的主导货币，美国的需求作为全球经济的增长来源。简言之，美国 生产货币 ，非美 囤积货币 ；美国 出口需求 ，非美 出口供给 。这形成了 巨量的 双边贸易流动 。 得益于金融（银行）的自由度以及纯信用货币的扩张能力，美元体系在 资本流动不受限制 的前提下渗透至全球，美元信贷/存款、美元资产/负债链接起美国与非 美经济体，形成 巨量的双边资本流动 。 美国作为美元区的管理者，作为国际秩序的主导者（ 霸主/爹味 ）。 现如今，美元体系中充斥着各类天文数字，这些数字已经超出了美国本土经济的体量。这是因为 非美经济体的高增长（收入）需求和资产配置需求（远期/定期的 美元收入），都需要基于美元体量的持续扩张来完成 。 随着柏林墙的倒塌与中国入世，美式全球化迎来了巨量适龄劳动人口的涌入，区域内的美元劳动收入向 ...

美国作为美元区的管理者，作为国际秩序的主导者（ 霸主/爹味 ）。 现如今，美元体系中充斥着各类天文数字，这些数字已经超出了美国本土经济的体量。这是因为 非美经济体的高增长（收入）需求和资产配置需求（远期/定期的 美元收入），都需要基于美元体量的持续扩张来完成 。 文章来源于：智堡Mikko 本文是笔者基于自身美元体系研究的一些反思，文章更多地是在向内发问，而不是对时下问题的求解， 简言之，我没有答案 。 一些脱离实际的内容纯属本人 YY 虚构，欢迎探讨。 起源 当下的全球经济与货币体系是美式全球化的造物，在摆脱黄金的限制以后，美式全球化运行在 三个关键机制 之上： 美元作为单一的主导货币，美国的需求作为全球经济的增长来源。简言之，美国 生产货币 ，非美 囤积货币 ；美国 出口需求 ，非美 出口供给 。这形成了 巨量的 双边贸易流动 。 得益于金融（银行）的自由度以及纯信用货币的扩张能力，美元体系在 资本流动不受限制 的前提下渗透至全球，美元信贷/存款、美元资产/负债链接起美国与非 美经济体，形成 巨量的双边资本流动 。 随着柏林墙的倒塌与中国入世，美式全球化迎来了巨量适龄劳动人口的涌入，区域内的美元劳动收入向 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in global gold demand, driven by factors such as rising inflation fears, central bank purchases, and a weakening dollar, leading to a shift in gold's role from a safe-haven asset to a new monetary anchor [1][4][5] - In February, North America saw gold ETF inflows of approximately $6.8 billion, marking the largest monthly inflow since July 2020, while Asia, primarily driven by Chinese funds, contributed about $2.3 billion [1] - The New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) has recently delisted several gold futures contracts, which has intensified market volatility and reflects changing trading dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Over 600 tons of gold (approximately 20 million ounces) have been transported from London to New York since December 2024, indicating a significant shift in gold trading dynamics [3] - Analysts note that the price difference between COMEX futures and London spot gold has created arbitrage opportunities, further enhancing COMEX's influence on gold pricing [3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from $3,100 to $3,300 per ounce, citing stronger-than-expected ETF inflows and ongoing central bank demand [4] Group 3 - Concerns over the sustainability of the U.S. dollar system, particularly due to rising U.S. debt levels, are prompting central banks to increase their gold reserves as a risk diversification strategy [5] - The demand for industrial gold is expected to rise by 7% year-on-year in 2024, driven by technological advancements, while investment demand for gold is projected to increase by 25% [6] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has contributed to a decline in the dollar index, which historically has an inverse relationship with gold prices, further supporting gold's upward trajectory [6]