流动性进一步宽松，贵金属板块展望 20250701 摘要 特朗普政府关税威胁及非农数据下滑曾引发市场波动，推动金价上涨， 但贸易紧张局势缓解后金价高位横盘。关注 2025 年下半年，预计流动 性宽松和风险偏好上行将继续支撑金价。 大美丽法案预计未来十年增加 2.4 万亿美元财政赤字，短期内加剧债务 压力并削弱美元信用，利好黄金等贵金属。美国国会预算办公室预测该 法案将显著增加财政支出，进一步加剧美元信用担忧。 短期投资建议关注受益于流动性宽松和风险偏好上行的贵金属与工业金 属组合，如黄金与铜或白银组合，并关注中报可能业绩超预期的标的， 如山东黄金等公司。 调降银行资本杠杆率（SLR）以刺激银行购买美债的空间有限。即使放 松监管，每年增加的购债规模也远小于未来几年的巨额财政支出，化债 效果可能不明显。 稳定币与美债需求绑定，可能带来短期限国库券购买需求，但长期美债 需求仍是重点。新增需求可能被高估，实际效果有待观察。渣打银行预 测到 2028 年稳定币规模可达 2 万亿美元。 Q&A 2025 年上半年贵金属市场的表现如何？主要驱动因素是什么？ 2025 年上半年，黄金价格上涨了 24%，在 4 月 22 日达 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the U.S. government's consideration of using Bitcoin as a means to address its $36 trillion debt, highlighting the absurdity of this approach [1][3] - It emphasizes skepticism regarding Bitcoin's legitimacy as a currency or asset for debt repayment, noting that its value is largely driven by speculative trading rather than intrinsic worth [3][5] - The article critiques the concept of stablecoins, arguing that despite their claims of being dollar-pegged, they lack the necessary backing to effectively address the massive debt burden [5][7] Group 2 - The underlying issue is identified as the declining trust in the U.S. dollar, with concerns that if this trend continues, it could lead to a significant financial crisis [7][9] - The article contrasts the U.S. approach to digital currencies with China's strategy of developing a stable digital yuan, suggesting a more cautious and grounded approach to financial innovation [7][9] - It concludes that while the U.S. may attempt to use financial gimmicks to delay addressing its debt crisis, the fundamental economic realities cannot be ignored indefinitely [9]

上周中东和平谈判加上美联储降息概率降低，黄金主要偏向回落，最低是到了3255美元一线，周线收于 2连阴。本周是非农周，不过周五提前休市，数据集中于周四公布，望各位金友注意。其他就是关注美 联储官员讲话和中东问题了。 周一（6月30日）早间黄金开盘直接一波跳水至3247美元，随后快速收回失地并反弹至3280上方。主要 地缘局势担忧仍吸引逢低买盘支撑金价，因特朗普称将考虑再次轰炸伊朗，放弃解除制裁计划。但总体 上是呈现一个震荡偏弱的走势格局，目前市场在多重因素影响下进入关键抉择期。 待定欧洲央行举行中央银行论坛 张津镭：非农提前引爆波动，黄金短线择高进空。 另外，尽管市场已降低对美联储降息的预期，但政策转向的可能性仍然存在。特别需要关注的是美联储 主席鲍威尔可能辞职的传闻，以及特朗普表示将在"三四人中选出下任美联储主席"的表态。这类政治不 确定性可能导致美元信用短期动摇，黄金波动加剧。 从技术上来看，上周五黄金刺破3250后有所止跌，本周初黄金借此支撑有一定的回弹也是可以理解的， 但是对于回弹不能有过大的期待，上方可着重关注3300-10一带的争夺，如果本周黄金站稳3300上方， 那么短线趋势可能会有变数。但若持 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海6月27日电（葛佳明） 2025年以来，美股市场经历了"深V"反转，标普500指数较年内高位 一度回调超17%，而纳斯达克指数则一度较高点下跌超22%。但随着美国政策不确定性逐步减少，以及 市场预期美联储货币政策或转向宽松，风险偏好逐步回升，美股自4月中旬以来持续反弹，截至6月26日 收盘，标普500指数报6141.02点，较4月9日低点涨幅达到24%；纳指报20167.91点，较低点涨超32%， 均接近历史高位。 业内人士普遍认为，本轮美股反弹主要由散户以及零售投资者推动，市场更多受流动性以及情绪影响， 对于下半年美股来说，市场波动性仍难以降低，关税谈判进展依然具有不确定性，美国财政法案也尚未 敲定，但预计最为悲观的时点或已过去，后续美股交易主线将逐步回归基本面。 美股剧烈波动背后 2025年上半年，美股剧烈波动背后的核心因素可归纳为科技股走势、美国财政和外贸双赤字持续恶化以 及关税政策反复对经济的冲击三条主线。无论是衡量美股波动率的VIX指数还是反映美债波动性的 MOVE指数均出现大幅攀升。 在科技层面，美股走势与美国在全球科技行业的地位密切相关。中信建投宏观首席分析师周君芝表 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the US PCE inflation data is expected to significantly impact market dynamics, particularly affecting the dollar and gold prices [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The US PCE price index for May is anticipated to rise by 2.3% year-on-year, up from 2.1% in April, while the core PCE is expected to increase by 2.6%, compared to 2.5% in April [2][3]. - Analysts suggest that if the PCE data, especially the core index, falls short of expectations, it could weaken the dollar and boost other major non-USD currencies [2][3]. Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently influenced by a complex macroeconomic environment, with ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Factors supporting potential gold price increases include sustained demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical issues, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ongoing high levels of US debt and deficits [4][5]. - The gold ETF fund (159937) offers a low-cost investment option that closely tracks domestic gold prices, supporting T+0 trading and providing a long-term hedge against economic downturns [5]. Market Sentiment - Recent economic data from the US indicates weakening consumer confidence and spending, which may put short-term pressure on the economy, although the Federal Reserve remains cautious regarding inflation uncertainties [5]. - Despite a generally weak dollar index trend, the Fed's maintenance of high interest rates has temporarily mitigated the dollar's decline, while gold remains supported by increasing international trade risks [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for US stocks is "volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US economy shows signs of stagflation, and the prospects of fiscal and monetary policies are gradually becoming clear. Although Trump's policies have had less - than - expected impacts, they have changed the market trading logic. The stagflation risk persists, and the path to a soft - landing through interest rate cuts has become more complicated. The high valuation of US stocks is being challenged [1][19]. - Corporate earnings are expected to weaken, but the growth rate remains resilient. The market has continuously lowered its earnings expectations, but it is still estimated that the annual earnings growth rate can reach 9%. The valuation expansion space is limited due to high macro - environment uncertainty [2][69]. - In the third quarter, US stocks still face pressure, with the downside risk higher than the upside risk. However, with the implementation of macro - policies, there is a chance for US stocks to rise in a volatile manner in the second half of the year. It is recommended to use valuation as an anchor and seize the opportunity to allocate assets at low prices during macro - event shocks [3][72] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025H1 US Stock Market Review: Macro - Policy Games Increase Market Volatility - In early 2025, after Trump took office, the market traded around his policy paths. In the first quarter, the focus was on reducing government spending, which initially worried the market about a potential recession. However, the actual reduction was far less than expected. Since April, the threat of reciprocal tariffs has affected market sentiment, but the market recovered quickly as tariff negotiations eased [14]. - Although Trump's policies had less - than - expected implementation, they changed the market trading logic. The emergence of DeepSeek weakened the US's technological monopoly, shaking the "American Exceptionalism" and challenging the high valuation of US stocks [19] 3.2 2025H2 US Macroeconomic Outlook 3.2.1 The US Economy Shows Stagflation Characteristics - The US economy is likely to experience mild stagflation in the second half of the year, with the economy continuing to decline and inflation rising. The stock market has not fully priced in the economic downturn [20]. - Hard economic data has not deteriorated significantly, but soft data has been under pressure. Trade policy uncertainties have increased short - term fluctuations in soft data, leading to deviations in private - sector investment and consumption behavior. Consumer and business confidence have been affected, and the "import - rush" effect has overdrafted future consumption and investment capabilities [23]. - Consumer confidence and inflation expectations have fluctuated with trade policies. Although consumer spending has not declined significantly, the growth rate of durable - goods consumption has slowed down after the "import - rush" effect faded. The employment market is gradually weakening, and corporate investment and inventory growth are expected to decline [25][34][43] 3.2.2 The Prospects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies are Gradually Becoming Clear - The effective tariff rate in the US has declined but remains at a high level. After the expiration of the tariff suspension in July, the tariff policy will become clearer. Whether the tariff is extended or implemented, it will help reduce market uncertainty [56]. - The US fiscal policy is still in an expansionary phase. The "Great Beauty Act" is expected to increase the deficit in the next decade. The US government's debt - ceiling issue may lead to an increase in bond supply in the third quarter, increasing the risk of a simultaneous decline in stocks and bonds [58][59][60]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a cautious approach in the third quarter, waiting to assess the impact of macro - policies on inflation and growth. The market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates, but the rate - cut trading will be more complicated in the second half of the year due to rising inflation [64] 3.3 2025H2 Outlook for US Stock Indexes 3.3.1 Corporate Earnings Expectations Weaken, but Growth Rate Remains Resilient - Affected by the macro - environment, the earnings growth rate of US stocks has reversed its upward trend. The market expects the earnings growth rate to fall to single - digit levels in the next three quarters. However, the performance of corporate earnings in the first quarter was acceptable [67]. - The technology, communication services, utilities, and pharmaceutical sectors have maintained an EPS growth rate of over 10%. The technology sector is still the main driver of net profit growth. Although the market has continuously lowered its earnings expectations, EPS has maintained an upward trend, providing support for the stock index [69] 3.3.2 Valuation Space is Limited and Difficult to Expand Significantly - Since the beginning of the year, the valuation levels of the three major stock indexes have moved away from historical extremes. However, due to high macro - environment uncertainty, the valuation is unlikely to expand significantly. The static valuation is expected to range between 22 and 26 times [70] 3.4 Investment Suggestions - In the third quarter, US stocks still face pressure from tariff negotiations, fiscal policy uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and increased bond supply. The downside risk is higher than the upside risk. - In the second half of the year, with the implementation of macro - policies, there is a chance for US stocks to rise in a volatile manner. It is recommended to use valuation as an anchor and allocate assets at low prices during macro - event shocks. In a pessimistic scenario, the S&P 500 is expected to be supported around 5100; in a neutral scenario, it will operate around 6050; and in an optimistic scenario, it can reach 6400 [3][72][73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate policy is the core factor affecting subsequent US Treasury interest payments. Trump is strongly dissatisfied with the Fed's high - interest - rate policy, believing that a rate cut could save the US government up to $1 trillion in fiscal spending. With the resolution of the debt ceiling in the second half of the year, the overall issuance of US Treasuries will increase significantly. High policy rates will lead to a substantial rise in Treasury interest payments and an increase in the US deficit [2]. - Fed Governor Waller's unexpectedly dovish stance indicates that the Fed's high - interest - rate policy based on the US dollar's credit is not sustainable. The Fed is likely to cut policy rates in the second half of the year. Silver prices will perform strongly when the Fed's easing expectations increase, while gold will continue to be weak due to the weakening of geopolitical risk - aversion factors. It is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for the Fed's inflection point in its stance [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On June 23, 2025, Shanghai gold futures rose 0.24% to 782.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.02% to 8737.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.15% to $3390.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.01% to $36.02 per ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.38%, and the US dollar index was 98.88 [2]. 3.2 Gold Data - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was $3384.40 per ounce, down 0.06% from the previous day; trading volume increased by 57.91% to 277,300 lots; open interest rose 0.29% to 417,100 lots; inventory decreased by 0.56% to 1169 tons [6]. - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was $3368.25 per ounce, down 0.02% [6]. - **SHFE Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 778.58 yuan/gram, down 0.34%; trading volume decreased by 19.45% to 303,900 lots; open interest fell 0.77% to 420,600 lots; inventory remained unchanged at 18.17 tons; the amount of funds withdrawn was 1.10%, totaling 52.39 billion yuan [6]. - **Au(T + D)**: The closing price was 776.65 yuan/gram, down 0.10%; trading volume decreased by 5.47% to 37.97 tons; open interest fell 1.92% to 212 tons [6]. 3.3 Silver Data - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was $35.95 per ounce, down 2.20%; open interest rose 6.69% to 174,300 lots; inventory decreased by 0.05% to 15,411 tons [6]. - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was $36.13 per ounce, down 0.50% [6]. - **SHFE Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 8664 yuan/kilogram, down 1.76%; trading volume decreased by 10.79% to 1.0843 million lots; open interest fell 2.50% to 889,600 lots; inventory decreased by 1.03% to 1230.23 tons; the amount of funds withdrawn was 4.21%, totaling 20.811 billion yuan [6]. - **Ag(T + D)**: The closing price was 8663 yuan/kilogram, down 1.30%; trading volume increased by 35.47% to 745.95 tons; open interest fell 2.82% to 3187.026 tons [6]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The Fed is expected to cut policy rates in the second half of the year. Silver prices will perform strongly when the Fed's easing expectations increase, and it is recommended to wait and see for now, with the reference operating range for the Shanghai silver main contract being 8522 - 9075 yuan/kilogram. Gold will continue to be weak due to the weakening of geopolitical risk - aversion factors, and the reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 767 - 801 yuan/gram [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that there are six major misconceptions regarding stablecoins in the current market [1][2] Group 2 - Misconception 1: The value of stablecoins is absolutely stable. In reality, stablecoins are credit extensions anchored to assets, and their value is subject to technical de-pegging risks and fluctuations in the underlying assets [1] - Misconception 2: All fiat currencies can issue stablecoins in large quantities. The development of different fiat stablecoins depends on the acceptance of the underlying currency, leading to a "winner-takes-all" scenario for the most trusted fiat stablecoins [1] - Misconception 3: Dollar stablecoins will weaken the credit of the US dollar. The rapid development of dollar stablecoins will not undermine the dollar system but will further strengthen the dollar's position by expanding its functionality and usage [1] - Misconception 4: Dollar stablecoins are a "lifeline" for US Treasury bonds. The dollar stablecoin market can only slightly alleviate the pressure on short-term US debt, while the overall impact on the US bond market is minimal [2] - Misconception 5: Dollar stablecoins will significantly increase the supply of US dollars. While the issuance authority of dollars is partially delegated to issuing companies, the Federal Reserve remains the main participant in controlling the total dollar liquidity [2] - Misconception 6: Stablecoins will rapidly promote the development of the RWA market. The support of stablecoins for RWA is more evident at the transaction level, and the development of the RWA market ultimately depends on the quality of the underlying assets [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target valuation range of HKD 12.90 to HKD 14.60, indicating a potential premium of 25% to 42% over the current stock price of HKD 10.30 [5][3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading gold mining enterprise in Henan Province, with a production scale of 7,000 tons of ore per day and an expected gold output of 5.2 tons in 2024, accounting for 1.37% of domestic gold production [1][14]. - The company has five major mining bases and a smelting processing plant, with a total gold reserve of approximately 131.81 tons (about 4.1 million ounces) as of the end of 2024 [1][46]. - The gold price is expected to remain strong due to a weakening dollar, increased central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions affecting market sentiment [1][35][31]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leading gold mining and smelting enterprise in Henan, with a focus on gold and its associated elements [14][23]. - It operates five mining bases and one smelting plant, with a daily ore processing capacity of 7,000 tons and a smelting capacity of 30 tons of gold annually [14][43]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 11.87 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, with a net profit of HKD 698 million, reflecting a significant growth of 119.4% compared to 2023 [4][23]. - The net profit margin is projected to be 43.1% in 2024, up from 29.8% in 2023, driven by rising gold prices and operational improvements [2][4]. Mining and Resource Quality - The average gold resource grade is 5.56 grams per ton, which is higher than the global average of 5.3 grams per ton for the largest gold mines [2][46]. - The company plans to focus on exploration and expanding mining capacity, with an expected annual production growth rate of over 10% for the next five years [2][3]. Market Dynamics - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with global central bank gold buying exceeding 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, indicating strong demand for gold as a strategic asset [35][37]. - The geopolitical landscape, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, is likely to continue influencing gold prices positively [38][41].

贝森特"化债"的招靠谱吗？（二） [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：邵翔 分析师：林彦 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100524080007 执业证号：S0100525030001 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com 邮箱：linyan@mszq.com ➢ 在解决美元信用问题上美国确实玩出了"新花样"。如果说我们在上一篇中 讨论的修改监管规则、释放商业银行需求的还属于常规操作，那么深度捆绑稳定 币则是另辟蹊径的一笔——是解不了"近渴"的"远水"，但所谋甚大。 ➢ 利用加密货币这个与传统资产相对独立的新资金池来化债确实称得上 GENIUS（天才，恰巧是稳定币法案的名字） ，不得不承认在金融创新方面美国 确实走在前列。 ➢ 稳定币能不能解决美债的问题？我们认为这背后有两个维度：一个是短期内 比较直接的逻辑，除了在监管上最直接的要求外，还有把自己和"对手"绑在一 起的意味；另一个则是偏中长期、且更间接，通过巩固全球美元体系来支撑美元 信用，进而稳定美债，同时应对人民币国际化的挑战。 ➢ 对于第一个维度，市面上讨论的已经比 ...