最近，全球金融圈的目光都聚焦在了一件事上：谁会成为下一任美联储主席？ 这可不是一次普通的人 事变动，它像一颗投入平静湖面的巨石，激起的涟漪正从华尔街蔓延到全球每一个角落。 美国总统特 朗普已经暗示，他心中的人选基本确定了，这个人很可能是他身边最信任的经济顾问之一，白宫国家经 济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特。 为什么这个人选如此关键？ 因为美联储主席手握美国乃至全球货币政策的"总开关"，他的想法直接决 定了美元是"贵"还是"便宜"。 而哈塞特的想法，几乎和特朗普一模一样。 他公开说过，如果他现在是 美联储主席，他会立刻降息。 这个表态，让市场嗅到了不同寻常的气息。 要知道，美联储一直被视为独立于白宫政治之外的"经济圣殿"，它的决策本该基于冷冰冰的经济数据。 但如今，情况正在起变化。 特朗普在第一个任期就曾多次公开批评他提名的现任主席鲍威尔降息太 慢，甚至考虑过炒掉他。 如今，他有机会在2026年鲍威尔任期结束后，安排一个"自己人"执掌美联 储。 这场"宫斗大戏"早已拉开序幕。 就在几个月前，特朗普试图解雇一位与他意见相左的美联储理事，还 火速安排自己的白宫经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰进入美联储理事会。 这些打破常规的举动，让 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD, highlighting the factors driving this trend and the outlook for the currency in 2026, emphasizing the importance of external and internal economic conditions [2][3][7]. Group 1: Reasons for RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by two forces: the weakening of USD credit and the Federal Reserve's easing policies [3]. - A significant factor supporting the RMB's appreciation is the shift in foreign trade enterprises' willingness to convert their earnings, reversing a three-year trend of reluctance to do so [3]. - The recent capital inflow, particularly after the Fed announced a new easing cycle, has been largely attributed to foreign trade enterprises' increased currency conversion activities [3]. Group 2: Central Bank's Management of Cross-Border Liquidity - The central bank has effectively managed cross-border liquidity by lowering swap market premiums to control the pace of foreign capital inflow and guiding domestic expectations through the midpoint rate [4]. - The goal is to align domestic and foreign pricing with the central bank's expectations, achieving a "three-price unification" [4]. Group 3: Changes in RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - Since April, the negative spread between the RMB midpoint and spot exchange rates has been notable, indicating that the midpoint has been guiding the appreciation of the spot rate [5]. - Seasonal factors, such as increased currency conversion by foreign trade enterprises and overseas workers sending money home before the Lunar New Year, are expected to support the RMB's strength [5]. - The recent shift from a negative to a positive spread between the midpoint and spot rates may reflect adjustments in the central bank's stance [6]. Group 4: Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate in 2026 - The RMB is expected to appreciate gradually in 2026, influenced by the restructuring of the international monetary system and the U.S. government's preference for a weaker dollar [8]. - The narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the U.S. is likely to support the RMB, as the Fed continues its easing cycle [8]. - Increased internationalization of the RMB, supported by China's competitive manufacturing sector, is anticipated to enhance the currency's attractiveness and stability [8]. Group 5: External Factors and Uncertainties - The impact of U.S.-China tariffs on the RMB is expected to diminish as both economies show resilience under trade pressures [9]. - However, uncertainties remain, including domestic economic stability and external trade relations, which could affect the RMB's performance [12]. - The potential for further depreciation of the USD, driven by the Fed's policies and economic conditions, may also influence the RMB's trajectory [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the gold sector is experiencing increased attention due to the Federal Reserve's unexpected expansion of its balance sheet, which may lead to a significant increase in dollar liquidity and potentially harm the dollar's credibility, benefiting gold prices [1] - The onset of a super cycle for industrial metals is anticipated to drive inflation, further supporting gold prices in the medium to long term [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider participating in gold investments during subsequent pullbacks, particularly through tax-exempt physical gold investments and gold stock ETFs that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

美国 AI 泡沫风险可能与全球美元债务风险同步释放 20251217 摘要 美国通过债务扩张刺激总需求，尤其在全球需求不足时，依赖国债发行。 此模式虽推动科技发展和经济增长，但依赖持续的债务扩张能力。 美国利用全球化和技术垄断缓解国内劳资矛盾，大型科技公司在全球获 取利润，并通过政府转移支付缓解贫富分化，将成本转嫁至全球。 当前美国面临债务扩张能力不足的挑战，尤其在 AI 等新兴技术领域，缺 乏足够债务支持将影响供需循环。中国技术自主可控对美国技术垄断构 成冲击。 AI 发展前景高度依赖宏观经济环境和政府债务扩张能力。美国急于发展 AI，旨在通过新的财富分配缓解财政压力，但面临国际竞争和国内矛盾。 美国的债务扩张与其全球利润分配能力密切相关。拜登政府债务扩张速 度超过利润增长，导致债务问题显现，美元信用面临挑战，黄金价格上 涨反映市场担忧。 AI 技术通过降低劳动力回报、提高资本回报，帮助美国获取更多全球财 富分配，强化超额利润分配特征，可能加剧与其他发达国家的竞争。 若 AI 泡沫破灭，将暴露美国债务风险，引发美股崩盘，并可能引发对美 债的大规模抛售，加剧金融危机，同时可能促使中国市场风格切换和人 民币升值 ...

Industry Overview - The report maintains a strong market rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, with a closing index of 7715.84, a 52-week high of 7846.97, and a low of 4280.14 [1]. Investment Highlights - In 2025, precious metals, particularly gold, were highlighted as the best-performing assets, with gold prices stabilizing above $4000 per ounce and silver outperforming gold due to liquidity factors [4][5]. - The precious metals market in 2025 was characterized by two phases: the first phase involved diversification in asset allocation driven by tariff expectations from the Trump administration, leading to a significant rise in gold prices, while the second phase saw a rally due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][15]. - The outlook for 2026 suggests that gold prices may continue to rise, supported by weakening dollar credibility, increasing inflation expectations, and continued inflows into gold ETFs [6][37]. Silver Market Analysis - Silver outperformed gold in 2025, particularly after April, due to a recovery in risk appetite and ongoing supply-demand imbalances, with prices reaching historical highs above $60 per ounce by December [39][50]. - The silver market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, driven by declining inventories and some countries designating silver as a reserve asset, enhancing its investment appeal [50][51]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates a persistent supply-demand imbalance in the silver market, with significant inventory pressures observed in Shanghai and London, and CME market dynamics reflecting speculative trading [43][44]. - The total supply of silver is projected to remain constrained, with mine production and recycling rates showing modest growth, while demand from industrial applications continues to rise [42]. ETF Inflows and Market Trends - In 2025, there was a notable increase in gold ETF holdings, particularly from Western investors, which played a crucial role in driving gold prices above $4000 per ounce [30][33]. - The inflow of ETFs from North America and Europe significantly contributed to the gold market's performance, marking a shift in investment patterns compared to previous years [31][33].

12月8日，一个值得载入金融史册的日子。 这一天，现货黄金价格年内涨幅逼近60%，而标普500指数也上涨了超过16%。 国际清算银行发布的一份报告， 将这一现象称为"至少50年来首次"，并指出黄金与美股同时呈现这种"爆炸性上涨"态势，往往预示着潜在泡沫的存在，之后常伴随着负回报或低迷时期。 这份来自"央行中的央行"的警示，像一颗投入平静湖面的石子，在狂热的黄金市场中激起了层层涟漪。 进入2025年，市场对美联储将连续降息的预期不断强化，特别是在8月和9月美国非农就业数据接连弱于预期之后，资金涌入黄金市场的速度明显加快。 更 有甚者，市场开始担忧美联储的独立性。 有分析指出，美国总统对美联储的干预增加，提名倾向大幅降息的官员，持续施压主席降息，这些举动都加剧了 市场对美元信用根基的担忧，成为了金价上涨的"助燃剂"。 第二股力量，则来自对美元和美国财政可持续性的深层焦虑。 这不仅仅是利率问题，更是信用问题。 美国联邦政府债务规模已超过37万亿美元，且仍在快 速增长。 更戏剧性的是，2025年10月，美国政府因两党争斗再度陷入"停摆"，关键经济数据发布进入"真空期"。 这些事件让全球投资者不得不思考：美国的债务问题 ...

黄金危机爆发。1935年1月，联邦造币厂厂长内莉·戴维斯·罗斯向财政部长亨利·摩根索求助。自从6102号总统令生效以来，已经收缴了超过1400吨黄金，造 币厂的仓库快要满了。而且，费城金库也发生了多起盗窃事件，黄金的安全问题令人担忧。 1933年4月，美国总统罗斯福签署了6102号总统令，禁止在美国国内个人私藏金币、金条以及金券等黄金制品。如果任何个人拥有超过100美元的黄金财物， 将被视为违法行为，面临最高可达1万美元罚款，或长达十年的监禁，甚至两者并罚。这项政策立刻引起了全美国的广泛关注和强烈反响，但罗斯福总统并 未因此改变决定。1929年全球经济大萧条爆发后，各国人民深刻认识到纸币的不稳定性。当时，德国出现了纸币一车才能买到一块面包的情况，这让民众对 纸币失去了信任。而黄金，在那时的极端困境下依然被视为最可靠的财富储存方式。大萧条期间，全球民众疯狂囤积黄金，各国的黄金储备迅速消耗。作为 世界经济中心的美国，面临着更加严重的局面。随着黄金储备的急剧下降，美元的信用也受到了严重威胁。 民间黄金储备过多也对美元构成了威胁。黄金作为真正的硬通货，标准统一、交易便利、价值稳定。如果民间拥有过多黄金，老百姓可能会转 ...

这篇文章讲的是，特朗普拟换美联储主席引震动，中国连续 13 月增持黄金，美债遭持续减持，全球金融格局生变。 12月的华尔街刚盼来两天安稳日子，特朗普一句话就把天给捅破了。 12月2日的白宫内阁会上，他当着财政部长和经济顾问的面放话：2026年初，新的美联储主席人选就会官宣。 这话刚出白宫大门，金融市场立刻给出反应。据新华网数据，美元指数当天出现0.06%的小幅下跌。 国际金价虽已长期处于高位（12月8日纽约金价已达4207.85美元/盎司），但受消息刺激，12月2日纽约商品交易所黄金期价出现短期波动，最终以4220.8美 元收盘，较前一日下跌1.26%，主要是部分投资者借机获利了结。 别骂市场太敏感，实在是这事儿太要命，圈内早就传开了，特朗普心里的第一人选，是白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特，他的铁杆亲信。 要是这位"自己人"真坐上美联储主席的位置，那号称"全球央行"的美联储，可能就再也硬不起来了。 哈塞特这人，不是美联储体系里熬出来的老油条，而是跟着特朗普打了四年经济仗的"自己人"。 美联储能撑这么多年，靠的就是"独立性"三个字，不用看白宫脸色，只盯着2%的通胀目标和就业数据，这样美元才有信用。 可哈塞特 ...

12月的金融市场刚稳了没几天，就被特朗普的一句话搅翻了天。他在12月2日的内阁会议上明确表示，2026年初会公布下任美联储主席人选，消息一出美元 指数立刻跳水，黄金价格反倒踩着上涨曲线一路走高。这不是单纯的人事变动消息，更像一颗投向全球金融池的石子，激起的涟漪里，藏着美元信用、美债 安全和大国资产布局的大文章。 美联储的"独立性"从来都是美元的压舱石，现在这块石头要被撬动了。过去美联储制定政策，核心是盯着2%的通胀目标和充分就业，不用看白宫脸色。但 哈塞特的表态很清楚，他要是上任，货币政策得跟着特朗普的产业政策、减税政策走。市场立刻就算出了后果：美联储可能不管通胀目标，跟着政府的意思 滥发货币，用美元贬值来稀释美债压力，顺便让美国商品在国际上更便宜。这种操作说白了就是悄悄赖账，债权国肯定不会坐视不理。 "大空头"迈克尔·伯里早就看穿了这层风险。这位曾经精准预言次贷危机的投资人，最近打破多年沉默发声，他觉得美国可能根本不需要美联储了，货币政 策早晚要被财政部接手，这两个部门现在已经快分不清界限。伯里直言，美联储干了上百年，没少捅娄子，要是特朗普真把美联储攥在手里，这家全球央行 的公信力就彻底完了，到时候没人会再 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the Chinese yuan (RMB) against the US dollar, highlighting a rebound in the RMB exchange rate after a prolonged period of depreciation, and emphasizes the need for adaptability to a new normal of two-way fluctuations in the currency market [1][2]. Summary by Sections RMB Exchange Rate Performance - In 2023, the RMB has shown resilience against external shocks, with the onshore RMB appreciating by 1.55% in the first eleven months, the spot exchange rate rising by 3.10%, and the offshore RMB (CNH) increasing by 3.76% [1]. - The RMB exchange rate has experienced a significant narrowing of volatility, with the maximum fluctuation of the onshore midpoint rate at 1.9%, the lowest since 2016, and the spot rate's maximum fluctuation at 3.8%, also the lowest since 2016 [4]. Stability Measures and Market Reactions - The Chinese government has emphasized maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, which has led to reduced exchange rate elasticity and suppressed depreciation pressures [5][4]. - In September, the bank's foreign exchange settlement surplus surged to $73.4 billion, the second-highest since the 2015 exchange rate reform, but dropped to $27.3 billion in October, indicating that the market's expectations for RMB appreciation may have been overstated [8]. Factors Influencing Future RMB Trends - Several factors are contributing to the recent optimism regarding the RMB, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, discussions between Chinese and US leaders, and the possibility of a more stable US-China trade relationship [10][11]. - The Chinese economy is expected to continue its recovery, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies and structural reforms aimed at enhancing productivity and innovation [12]. Challenges and Uncertainties - Despite positive trends, the RMB faces uncertainties due to domestic economic challenges, external trade environment fluctuations, and the potential strength of the US dollar [13][14][15]. - The article suggests that while the RMB may break the 7.0 mark against the dollar, its ability to maintain stability below this level remains uncertain, depending on future policy directions and market conditions [16].