商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 16 日 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2506 | 737.64 | -2.90% | 754.32 | 1.22% | | | 黄金T+D | 735.39 | -3.06% | 751.00 | 1.66% | | | Comex黄金2506 | 3236.99 | 1.61% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3243.00 | 1.98% | - | - | | | 沪银2506 | 7991 | -2.20% | 8134.00 | 1.02% | | 期货及现货电 | 白银T+D | 7967 | -2.5 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, remaining roughly flat at $9,600/ton; SHFE copper futures gained 0.13% to CNY 78,490/ton. US inflation data was lower than expected, and the Fed's flexible attitude towards inflation was seen as a signal for interest rate cuts. Domestically, attention should be paid to the performance of the financial market. LME copper inventories decreased by 925 tons, while COMEX inventories increased by 1,381 tons. SMM's Thursday statistics showed that the national mainstream copper inventories increased by 0.89 million tons to 13.20 million tons, ending the continuous destocking trend. With copper prices rising and the expectation of the peak season turning to the off - season, downstream procurement was cautious, and terminal demand orders might gradually slow down. Although the macro - expectation continued to improve, the domestic copper downstream demand showed some weakness. The upward movement of copper prices might be hindered. However, the better - than - expected progress in Sino - US trade negotiations was expected to continue to boost risk appetite, and copper prices were expected to be briefly boosted, with the upward range still seen at CNY 78,000 - 80,000/ton. When copper prices approached the upper limit of the range, it might bring selling hedging opportunities for the mid - and upstream [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended strongly with oscillations. Overnight, AO2509 closed at CNY 2,985/ton, up 0.17%, and the open interest increased by 13,002 lots to 338,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum trended weakly with oscillations. Overnight, AL2506 closed at CNY 20,220/ton, down 0.07%, and the open interest increased by 1,633 lots to 203,000 lots. The SMM alumina price rebounded slightly to CNY 2,936/ton. The spot premium of aluminum ingots widened to CNY 60/ton. There were new maintenance activities in Shanxi and Guangxi's alumina. The main contract shifted to the 09 contract, and the market was trading the expectation of ore production restrictions during the rainy season in Guinea. Aluminum ingot arrivals were low, and downstream restocking occurred after price cuts, so aluminum ingots continued to be destocked slightly. The alleviation of the Sino - US tariff situation improved the macro - sentiment. However, the decline in photovoltaic subsidies and the weakening of new export orders, along with the pressure of cost reduction, meant that the short - term strong and long - term weak pattern of aluminum prices continued. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption situation and subsequent tariff negotiation dynamics [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.03% to $15,805/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.16% to CNY 125,230/ton. LME nickel inventories increased by 714 tons, while domestic SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 205 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel premium decreased by CNY 50/ton. Nickel ore prices were still strong, with premiums rising in both the Philippines and Indonesia. In the stainless - steel sector, there was a slight reduction in the supply of the 300 - series, and the weekly inventory decreased slightly. In the new - energy sector, the supply of raw materials recovered, the MHP price declined, and the spot profit of nickel sulfate slightly improved, but the demand for ternary precursors in May decreased slightly month - on - month. Domestically, primary nickel inventories decreased slightly on a weekly basis, and overseas destocking was obvious. The production in May was expected to decrease slightly. In the short term, the macro - sentiment improved, and the Philippine nickel - ore event attracted market attention again, so nickel ore was relatively strong, and it was not advisable to be overly bearish. However, the nickel - iron transaction price continued to decline, and if domestic primary nickel inventories continued to accumulate, the pressure on nickel prices would gradually become prominent, and the overall trend was still oscillatory [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Copper**: The macro - situation in the US showed lower - than - expected inflation data, which was regarded as a signal for interest rate cuts. Domestically, the financial market performance was a focus. Inventory changes were mixed, and downstream demand was cautious. The upward movement of copper prices might face resistance, but short - term boosts were possible due to trade negotiation progress [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices were strong, while Shanghai aluminum was weak. There were new maintenance activities, and the market was trading the Guinea ore - restriction expectation. Aluminum ingots were destocked slightly. The short - term strong and long - term weak pattern continued due to various factors [2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rose slightly overnight. Inventory changes were different in different regions. Nickel ore was strong, but nickel - iron prices declined. The new - energy sector had mixed signals. The overall trend was oscillatory in the short term [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On May 15, 2025, compared with May 14, 2025, the price of flat - copper decreased by CNY 180/ton, and the premium increased by CNY 40/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by CNY 100/ton, and the refined - scrap spread decreased by CNY 63/ton. LME copper inventories decreased by 925 tons, while COMEX inventories increased by 1,382 tons. The total domestic + bonded area inventories increased by 0.3 million tons [5]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by CNY 60/ton. The prices of lead concentrates in different regions increased by CNY 50/ton. The LME lead inventories remained unchanged, while the SHFE lead inventories increased by 2,718 tons [5]. - **Aluminum**: On May 15, 2025, compared with May 14, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased, the Nanhai - Wuxi spread decreased, and the spot premium increased. The price of alumina FOB increased by $11/ton, and the price of Shandong alumina increased by CNY 20/ton. LME aluminum inventories decreased by 2,025 tons, and SHFE aluminum warrants increased by 1,397 tons [6]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by CNY 250/ton, and the spreads of Jinchuan nickel and 1 imported nickel against Wuxi increased by CNY 1,250/ton. The price of nickel ore remained stable. LME nickel inventories increased by 714 tons, and SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 205 tons [6]. - **Zinc**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 1.0%, and the LME S3 price remained unchanged. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by CNY 60/ton. The domestic and imported zinc premiums decreased by CNY 80/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by $1.75/ton. The SHFE zinc inventories increased by 793 tons, and the social inventories increased by 0.08 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.3%, and the LME S3 price decreased by 2.1%. The SMM spot price increased by CNY 1,100/ton. The prices of 60% and 40% tin concentrates decreased by CNY 700/ton. The SHFE tin inventories decreased by 190 tons [7]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: There are charts showing the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][10][11]. - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: There are charts showing the SHFE near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][16][18]. - **3.3 LME Inventories**: There are charts showing the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - **3.4 SHFE Inventories**: There are charts showing the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **3.5 Social Inventories**: There are charts showing the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **3.6 Smelting Profits**: There are charts showing the copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profits, nickel - iron smelting costs, zinc smelting profits, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margins from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous metal research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metal researcher, a medium - level gold investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial - products futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. With more than a decade of commodity - research experience, he has served many leading spot enterprises, published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and has been interviewed by multiple media. His team has won many awards [47]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous metal researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on hedging accounting and disclosure, and provides high - quality services to listed companies [47]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous metal researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel. He focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The inflation data released in the US yesterday was lower than expected, and Powell stated that the monetary policy framework needed adjustment. Precious metals, especially gold, strengthened in the short - term after reaching the trend - line support [2]. - The US economic data shows signs of recession. The Fed Chair's stance on monetary policy has softened. For the Shanghai Gold main contract, appropriate bargain - hunting long positions can be taken, with a reference operating range of 732 - 787 yuan/gram. The silver price has rebounded but is in a weak form, so it is recommended to wait and see for now, with the Shanghai Silver main contract reference operating range of 7805 - 8286 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $3243.90 per ounce, up 1.99%; SHFE gold closed at 739.82 yuan/gram, down 2.88%. Au(T + D) closed at 735.39 yuan/gram, down 3.06%. London gold closed at $3191.05 per ounce, down 0.03%. SPDR gold ETF holdings were 927.62 tons, down 0.95% [4][6]. - **Silver**: COMEX silver closed at $32.79 per ounce, up 1.23%; SHFE silver closed at 8008 yuan/kilogram, down 2.28%. Ag(T + D) closed at 7967 yuan/kilogram, down 2.51%. London silver closed at $32.09 per ounce, down 2.43%. SLV silver ETF holdings were 13971.47 tons, unchanged [4][6]. - **Other Indicators**: The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.45%, the dollar index was 100.8196, down 0.24%. The Dow Jones index rose 0.65%, the S&P 500 rose 0.41%, the Nasdaq index fell 0.18%, and the VIX index fell 4.24% [4]. 3.2 Economic Data - **Inflation Data**: The US April PPI同比 was 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.5% and the revised previous value of 3.4%. The core PPI同比 was 3.1%, in line with expectations. The retail sales data was higher than expected but showed a weakening trend overall [3]. 3.3 Price Structure and Spreads - **Gold**: The SHFE - COMEX gold spread was 9.71 yuan/gram, and the SGE - LBMA gold spread was - 23.48 yuan/gram [51]. - **Silver**: The SHFE - COMEX silver spread was 425.60 yuan/kilogram, and the SGE - LBMA silver spread was not fully provided in a clear calculation [51].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends short - term trading based on events (such as the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks) with an overall volatile trend for oil prices, and a medium - term short position for oil [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oil prices dropped significantly yesterday, with WTI and Brent falling over 2%, and SC nearly 5%. This was mainly due to Trump's remarks about the approaching Iran nuclear deal. The market fears that if U.S. sanctions on Iran are lifted, it could lead to an increase in Iranian oil supply and exacerbate the oil market surplus. However, whether the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks will succeed remains uncertain, and the outcome of this event will have opposite impacts on oil prices [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.53 to $61.62 per barrel, a decrease of 2.42%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery fell $1.56 to $64.53 per barrel, a decrease of 2.36%. The SC crude oil main contract dropped 3.53% to 462 yuan per barrel [1] - Powell will re - evaluate the "key parts" of the 2020 monetary policy framework, including the handling of inflation targets and employment "gaps". Higher real interest rates may reflect more volatile future inflation, and "supply shocks" may become the new normal [1] - The U.S. April PPI increased 2.4% year - on - year, lower than expected, and decreased 0.5% month - on - month, the largest decline in five years, mainly due to the decline in corporate profit margins. U.S. April retail sales increased 0.1% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations, but sales of 7 out of 13 commodity categories decreased [1] - The IEA raised its average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day, and the global supply growth forecast to 1.6 million barrels per day, an increase of 380,000 barrels per day compared to last month's report. In 2025, global supply is expected to far exceed demand growth, and inventories will increase by about 720,000 barrels per day [1] - Hamas is in direct talks with the U.S. to reach an agreement to end the Gaza conflict. Hamas called for the exchange of detainees, Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, allowing aid supplies to enter Gaza, and rebuilding Gaza without forced migration. If a permanent cease - fire is achieved, Hamas can hand over control of the Gaza Strip [1] - Indonesia's recent increase in the export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) may support global CPO prices and strengthen its biodiesel policy. If oil prices remain above $49 per barrel, it may improve the financial stability of Indonesia's B40 biodiesel program and may lead to the introduction of a B50 biodiesel policy [1] - Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that the U.S. has put forward many contradictory positions in the Iran nuclear talks, which may be due to the lack of centralization in the U.S. decision - making structure or its negotiation style. Iran's negotiation style is based on adhering to basic principles, and Iran's uranium enrichment facilities will continue to exist [1] Investment Logic - The current Iranian crude oil production is around 3.2 million barrels per day, with exports of 1.5 - 2 million barrels per day. If sanctions are lifted, Iranian oil will re - enter the global market, and its 30 million barrels of floating storage will flow into the market in the short term. Iran can increase exports by about 500,000 barrels per day within 3 months, which will exacerbate the oil market surplus in the second half of the year [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to be volatile in the short term due to events and suitable for short - position allocation in the medium term [3] Risk - Downside risks include significant production increases by OPEC and macro black - swan events; upside risks include supply tightening of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, various sectors in the market are influenced by multiple factors including economic policies, international trade negotiations, and supply - demand dynamics. Different sectors show different trends and risks. For example, in the financial market, the Fed's potential policy framework changes affect the performance of the US dollar index and US stock index futures; in the commodity market, supply - demand relationships in industries such as steel, copper, and agricultural products determine price trends [14][22][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The release of the urban renewal action plan clarifies the path for domestic economic support, and fixed - asset investment will maintain a high proportion in the economy. Attention should be paid to the marginal change of PPI to determine the elasticity of corporate profit margins. It is recommended to allocate large, medium, and small - cap stock indices evenly [14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices fluctuated sharply, first falling then rising and finally closing higher. With the easing of tariffs and geopolitical military conflicts, funds are flowing out of gold. The short - term gold price is still in the adjustment process, not fully stabilized, and the increased volatility makes trading more difficult. It is recommended to be cautious about the risk of price decline and wait before bottom - fishing [18][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed is preparing to modify its policy framework, which means a significant change in future policy thinking. The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to expect the US dollar index to oscillate [22][23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's change in the monetary framework may increase its tolerance for inflation, and high inflation and high interest rates may exist for a longer period. Economic data shows that inflation and consumption data continue to weaken, and market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased. The short - term market sentiment is optimistic, and the stock index fluctuates strongly, but it is recommended to treat it as range - bound due to potential negotiation uncertainties [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Market concerns about the US biodiesel policy have led to a significant decline in the prices of US soybean oil and US soybean futures. Brazilian soybean production and export forecasts have been raised. The price of soybean meal futures is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US relations, US biodiesel policy, and weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased this week, but the marginal weakness in the manufacturing terminal has not been completely reversed. Steel prices are in a stage of rebound, but lack the momentum for a sharp rise. It is recommended to hold a light position in the short term, wait for the market to rebound, and pay attention to changes in the export end [31][32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry has declined, and inventory has decreased slightly. The factors affecting the CS - C futures spread are complex, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is oscillating weakly. With the improvement of the macro - environment, coking coal may stabilize with the overall black metal sector in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have not changed, and attention should be paid to demand changes [34][35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory days of feed enterprises have slightly increased, while the raw material inventory of deep - processing enterprises has declined. It is recommended to hold the previously entered 07 long positions, 7 - 9 positive spreads, and 7 - 11 positive spreads, and pay attention to the results of import auctions [36][37]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Foran Mining is promoting the McIlvenna Bay copper - zinc project. US economic data is weakening marginally, and the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising. Domestic short - term inventory is still being depleted. Copper prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to conduct short - term band operations and wait and see for arbitrage [42]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Considering the delayed resumption of production at the southwest base of leading enterprises and the planned production cuts and overhauls of some enterprises, the polysilicon production plan for May has been revised down. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and focus on arbitrage strategies [44]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - There are rumors that northern large - scale factories plan to resume production, and some silicon factories in Sichuan are gradually resuming production. Demand is still weak. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [45][46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The market risk appetite has been repaired, but the mine price has not stabilized, and the fundamentals are difficult to support continuous price rebounds. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on price rebounds [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots has increased significantly. Under the intertwined situation of multiple factors, there is no clear unilateral logic for lead prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spread opportunities [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic social inventory of zinc has increased. The short - term spot market is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for previous short positions, and consider short - selling opportunities on price rebounds for those not yet entered [56]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel is expected to oscillate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to band operations within the range [59]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG commodity volume has increased, and both refinery and port inventories are accumulating. The price has insufficient upward driving force, and attention should be paid to changes in Shandong spot prices and factory warehouse behaviors [61]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [65]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - It is recommended to continue to be bearish on NYMEX natural gas [67]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - After a short - term rapid rise, PTA prices may start to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended that long positions consider taking profit and waiting and seeing [69][70]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The spot price of caustic soda is still strong in the short term, and the futures price is also expected to be strong [71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The decline in Sino - US tariffs has warmed market sentiment, which may drive the pulp futures price to stabilize and rebound [73]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The decline in Sino - US tariffs has warmed market sentiment, which may drive the PVC price to stabilize and rebound [75]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Due to supply pressure, the processing fee of bottle chips is expected to remain low [78]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Short - term maintenance of soda ash plants may support the spot and futures prices, but the medium - term view is to short on price rebounds [79]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Under the situation of weak reality and the absence of favorable policies, the glass futures price will remain in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to changes in real - estate policies [81].

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a reassessment of key components of the 2020 monetary policy framework, suggesting that long-term interest rates may rise and "supply shocks" could become the new normal [1] - The U.S. April PPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, which was below expectations, while the month-on-month change was -0.5%, marking the largest decline in five years [1] - U.S. April retail sales rose by 0.1% month-on-month, slightly exceeding expectations, but signs of weak consumer spending are emerging [1] Group 2 - Trump signed a $200 billion commercial agreement with the UAE to collaborate on building a 5GW data center in the UAE [1] - Qatar's sovereign wealth fund plans to invest $500 billion in the U.S. over the next decade as part of a "gift package" from Trump [1] - Iran expressed willingness to reach an agreement with the U.S., with a senior advisor stating that Iran would commit to never developing nuclear weapons in exchange for the lifting of U.S. sanctions [1] Group 3 - Hamas officials stated that they would hand over control of the Gaza Strip if a permanent ceasefire is achieved [1] - Alibaba's Q4 revenue grew by 7% year-on-year, which was below expectations, while Alibaba Cloud accelerated growth at 18%, and AI revenue has seen triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [1] - Meta announced a delay in the release of its flagship AI model Behemoth, resulting in a more than 3% drop in its stock price [1] Group 4 - CoreWeave received a 7% stake from Nvidia and is set to provide $4 billion in cloud computing capacity to OpenAI [1] - Berkshire Hathaway significantly reduced its bank stock holdings in Q1, completely exiting its position in Citigroup, while maintaining its stake in Apple and doubling its holdings in a beer manufacturer, with some positions remaining confidential [1] - Walmart's Q1 sales increased by 2.5%, slightly below expectations, with the CFO warning that tariff price increases may begin this month [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is reassessing key components of its monetary policy framework, including inflation targets and the handling of employment gaps, in response to changing economic conditions [2][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework Changes - The current monetary policy framework established in 2020 is deemed unsuitable due to significant changes in economic conditions post-pandemic [3] - Powell emphasized that the zero lower bound on interest rates is no longer a baseline scenario, indicating a shift in the Fed's approach to interest rates [3][10] - The review of the framework will focus on effective communication regarding economic uncertainties and the Fed's understanding of the economic outlook [12] Group 2: Employment and Inflation Targets - The Fed is moving away from an excessive focus on employment gaps, which previously influenced preemptive rate hikes to cool the labor market [4][5] - The concept of a "flexible average inflation target" is under reconsideration, as critics argue it is not suitable for the post-pandemic economic environment [7][8] - Despite the framework revisions, Powell reaffirmed the importance of maintaining a 2% inflation target, which is crucial for anchoring expectations [10] Group 3: Economic Challenges Ahead - Powell warned of a potential new normal characterized by more frequent and persistent supply shocks, posing challenges for both the economy and the central bank [11] - The possibility of higher long-term interest rates is anticipated as a reflection of increased volatility in future inflation compared to the 2010s [2][9]

与2020年框架大修相比，此次调整将更为微妙 尽管市场普遍期待获得降息线索，但鲍威尔很可能将焦点转向更具实质意义的议题。 有分析认为，这次演讲的核心将是美联储对其货币政策框架的评估，即如何履行充分就业和价格稳定双 重使命的蓝图。 尽管一些经济学家呼吁进行重大改革，但一些分析认为，今年的框架更新将更加微妙。预计将进行一些 调整，重点是采取"对称性"的通胀应对方法，并改进美联储的经济预测摘要（SEP），许多评论家认为 该摘要不够透明。 今晚（15日）20:40，美联储主席鲍威尔将在一场活动上致开幕词。 美联储上次彻底改革其货币政策框架是在2020年。当时，利率接近于零，美联储正在向金融系统注入流 动性。 然而，自那以来，情况发生了巨大变化。通货膨胀在2022年飙升至9.1%的峰值，促使美联储采取了40 年来最激进的加息行动。 尽管目前物价压力已经有所缓解，但仍高于美联储2%的目标。 这次演讲也恰逢政治压力再次浮现。周三，特朗普继续"炮轰"鲍威尔，写道： "美联储必须像欧洲那样降低利率。太迟的鲍威尔怎么了？这对准备好蓬勃发展的美国不公 平？就让一切发生吧，那将是一件美好的事情！" 此外，特朗普的关税威胁笼罩在美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is considering the best approach to achieve its 2% inflation target, potentially reverting to a framework similar to that before 2020 [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework may shift back to pre-2020 conditions, indicating a possible change in approach to managing inflation [1]