Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.31%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.13%, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.10%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.04% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds generally declined, with the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" yield down by 2.25 basis points to 1.8975%, the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" yield down by 1.9 basis points to 1.7610%, the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" yield down by 2.6 basis points to 2.0490%, and the 20-year government bond "25超长特别国债04" yield down by 4 basis points to 2.13% [1] Funding Situation - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 418.5 billion yuan for 7 days on September 17, with an operation rate of 1.40%, and the total bid amount matching the amount allocated [2] - On the same day, 304 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 114.5 billion yuan [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank conducted a tender for 2025 central treasury cash management deposits, with a total bid amount of 150 billion yuan and a bid rate of 1.78% [2] - The overnight repo weighted rate for deposit institutions rose to around 1.48%, while the quotes for non-bank institutions' pledged certificates and credit bonds also increased to around 1.6% [2] - As the peak of tax payment approaches its end, the funding situation is expected to ease [2] Operational Suggestions - The sentiment in the bond market has improved, supported by expectations of the central bank restarting bond purchases [3] - The bond market remains mixed, with uncertainties regarding market risk appetite, policies to expand domestic demand, and quarter-end institutional behaviors [3] - Without significant negative factors, the 10-year government bond yield may find resistance around 1.75%, while the T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35 [3] - A cautious approach is recommended for investors, focusing on range trading in the short term [3]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 17, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 418.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 304 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 114.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The funding conditions remain tight due to ongoing tax payment impacts, with the overnight repo weighted average rate for deposit institutions rising over 4 basis points to around 1.48% [3] - Overnight funding quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system approached 1.6%, indicating scarce supply [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.51% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.68%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [7] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market have generally seen a decline in yields [9] - The closing prices for government bond futures showed collective increases, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.31%, the 10-year by 0.13%, the 5-year by 0.10%, and the 2-year by 0.04% [13] Group 5: Fiscal Revenue and Debt Issuance - From January to August, the national general public budget revenue reached 1,481.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with stamp duty revenue at 28.44 billion yuan, up 27.4% [13] - The central bank is actively supporting qualified financial institutions in issuing financial bonds and asset-backed securities to enhance funding sources and improve consumer credit supply capabilities [13] Group 6: Bond Market Events - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 60 billion yuan of 182-day discount treasury bonds on September 24 [18] - The China Development Bank will issue up to 25 billion yuan of fixed-rate bonds on September 18 [18] - Tencent is set to issue bonds for the first time in four years, raising approximately 9 billion yuan [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the bond market, despite the high probability of continued weakening of economic data, there is still significant adjustment pressure. If the 10Y Treasury bond rate further breaks through to 1.8%, the allocation portfolio gradually becomes cost - effective. If the central bank does not introduce incremental tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or restart bond purchases in September, the pressure on the capital side may continue to affect market sentiment. Currently, the dumbbell strategy to maintain portfolio liquidity and returns may be the best strategy [5]. - Looking at the second half of the year, since the third quarter may be the starting point of a "bond bull market", it is advisable to appropriately relax the restrictions on portfolio duration. Among the varieties, the 30 - year bond, which has shown weak performance recently, may have high cost - effectiveness [46]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Bond Market Performance Review - In the interest - rate bond market, due to the convergence of capital and the "stock - bond seesaw" effect, the yields of government bonds with different maturities continued to rise this week. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year government bonds rose by 2.2 and 5.2 bps to 1.79% and 2.09% respectively, and the yield of 1 - year government bonds rose by 1 bp to 1.4% [2][11]. - In the interest/credit market, for interest - rate bonds, the adjustment range of yields within 7 years was generally small, while the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year government bonds rose significantly by 4 bp and 7 bp to 1.87% and 2.18% respectively due to fund selling. For credit bonds, the short - end performed better than the long - end, and general credit bonds performed better than secondary perpetual bonds. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year bonds on the AA+ implicit urban investment bond curve rose by 2 bp, 7 bp, and 6 bp respectively; the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year bonds on the AAA - secondary capital bond curve rose by 6 bp, 10 bp, and 10 bp respectively. Currently, the yields of 5 - year credit bonds have generally returned to around 2.15% or higher [14]. Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - Local government bonds: This week, 93.4 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of - 3 billion yuan, including 0 billion yuan of new general bonds, 17.8 billion yuan of new special bonds (including 16.2 billion yuan of special special bonds), 75.6 billion yuan of ordinary refinancing bonds, and 0 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds [19]. - Government bonds: This week, 349.1 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of 289 billion yuan, including 82 billion yuan of special government bonds [19]. - Policy - financial bonds: This week, 120.5 billion yuan was issued, with a net issuance of 80.5 billion yuan [19]. Funding Market Conditions - Overnight and 7 - day funding rates continued to rise at the beginning of the week. Due to the continuous absence of incremental funds, the funding cost rose continuously, and the overnight rate rose above the OMO. R001 rose 9 bp to 1.46% compared with the previous Friday, and R007 rose 3 bp to 1.49%. Until Wednesday, the central bank started incremental investment, and the rise of funding rates gradually stopped. R001 and R007 reached weekly highs of 1.46% and 1.50% respectively. In the following two days, the central bank maintained excess investment, and the funding rates began to decline gradually. R001 closed at 1.40%, and R007 also declined to 1.47% [25]. - This week, the overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates closed at 1.32% and 1.45%, changing by - 5 and + 3.8 bps respectively compared with last week; the overnight and 1 - week CNH Hibor rates closed at 1.1% and 1.28%, changing by - 43.1 and - 36.2 bps respectively compared with last week [25]. - The yields of most inter - bank certificates of deposit rose. Although the maturity pressure of certificates of deposit increased this week, banks did not significantly increase the issuance price, and the secondary yields were in a sideways state. The changes in the issuance rates of 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year certificates of deposit were within 1 bp. In terms of issuance maturity, the weighted issuance maturity extended to 6.1 months, compared with 6.0 months in the previous week. Despite the convergence of the capital side, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repos still rebounded, with the average trading volume rising from 7.31 trillion yuan in the previous week to 7.49 trillion yuan [28]. China's Bond Market Macroeconomic Environment Tracking and Outlook Fundamental Outlook - In August, the year - on - year CPI was - 0.4%, and the month - on - month was 0%. The core CPI year - on - year was 0.9%, and the month - on - month was 0%. Most sub - items improved. The non - food part of CPI was weaker than that in July; the food CPI month - on - month was 0.5% (previous value - 0.2%), and the non - food month - on - month was - 0.1% (previous value 0.5%) [37]. - In August, the year - on - year PPI was - 3.6% (previous value - 2.9%), and the month - on - month was 0%. However, with policy support, the subsequent decline may narrow. From the perspective of sub - items, the prices of production materials continued to decline, and the decline in emerging industries narrowed. The upstream prices stabilized significantly, with the mining and raw materials sectors turning positive month - on - month, and the processing industry returning to zero growth month - on - month. In key industries, the month - on - month of coal mining, coal processing, ferrous metal smelting, and electric power and heat all turned from negative to positive. The month - on - month of downstream automobile manufacturing was still - 0.3%, but the drag may mainly come from fuel - powered vehicles [40]. - In August, exports denominated in US dollars decreased year - on - year to 4.4%, mainly dragged down by the decline in exports to the United States. The trade surplus remained at a high level. From the perspective of export countries, in August, exports to the United States decreased year - on - year by - 33.1% (previous value - 21.7%); exports to the EU increased year - on - year by 10.4% (previous value 9.2%); exports to Japan increased year - on - year by 6.7% (previous value 2.5%); exports to ASEAN increased year - on - year by 22.5% (previous value 16.6%); exports to Latin America decreased year - on - year by - 2.3% (previous value 7.7%). From the perspective of major products, there was an obvious differentiation between high - end and low - end products. In August, the combined year - on - year of the four labor - intensive products was - 7.7%; the combined year - on - year of electronic products (mobile phones, automatic data processing equipment) was - 8.1%; the year - on - year of household appliance exports was - 6.6%, all with relatively low growth rates. The growth rate of general machinery and equipment was moderately 4.3%. The high - growth sectors were mainly in the high - end equipment field, including integrated circuits (year - on - year 32.8%), automobiles (year - on - year 17.3%), and ships (year - on - year 35%) [5][36]. - In July, the year - on - year CPI was 0, higher than the expected - 0.1%. The sub - items of commodity retail all improved to varying degrees; the year - on - year PPI was - 3.6%, remaining in a slump, indicating that there was still significant pressure for price recovery. At the same time, the credit data was to be released in the next week. Considering the decline in the cumulative transfer discount scale of large - scale banks in July and the return of the bill rate to zero at the end of the month, the social financing data in July might not be optimistic [46]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The US dollar index has been below 100 for the past week. Under the continuous global trend of "de - dollarization", the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate, closing below 7.18 on Friday. Looking forward to the second half of the year, under the tone of a "moderately loose" monetary policy, the central bank may maintain a loose tone. This week, the central bank had a net investment of 196.1 billion yuan, including 1264.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase investment and 1068.4 billion yuan of maturities [45]. - Due to insufficient effective economic demand, the loose monetary policy will continue. In terms of exchange rates, as the Japanese yen and the euro strengthen, the US dollar index has fallen below 100, and the pressure on RMB depreciation is still relatively controllable in the short term. Therefore, external shocks will not restrict the intensity of monetary easing in the short term. For the second half of the year, the monetary policy still needs to cooperate with fiscal bond issuance, and liquidity is likely to be loose rather than tight. Currently, the periodic tightness of liquidity may be mainly caused by institutional expectations. Whether dealing with external shocks or stabilizing the domestic situation, a loose tone is still an important foundation [46]. Bond Market Outlook - Looking forward to the second half of the year, since the third quarter may be the starting point of a "bond bull market", it is advisable to appropriately relax the restrictions on portfolio duration. Among the varieties, the 30 - year bond, which has shown weak performance recently, may have high cost - effectiveness [46].

Market Overview - The bond market continued to recover on September 17, with all major government bond futures closing higher, and interbank bond yields declining in the afternoon [1][2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a net injection of 114.5 billion yuan in the open market, while short-term funding rates rose across the board due to tax payment impacts [1][5] Government Bonds - The closing prices for government bond futures were as follows: 30-year main contract up 0.31% at 115.880, 10-year main contract up 0.13% at 108.155, 5-year main contract up 0.10% at 105.890, and 2-year main contract up 0.04% at 102.456 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds decreased, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond yield down 1 basis point to 1.911%, and the 10-year government bond yield down 1.5 basis points to 1.765% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 3.15 basis points to 3.495% and the 10-year yield down 0.58 basis points to 4.028% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly declined, with the 10-year yield down 1.1 basis points to 1.594% [3] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds increased slightly, with French bonds up 1 basis point to 3.486% and German bonds up 0.2 basis points to 2.691% [3] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average yields for newly issued government bonds: 28-day at 1.1295%, 91-day at 1.2514%, and 20-year at 2.1616%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.49, 3.27, and 5.71 respectively [4] Funding Conditions - The PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation with a total of 418.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 114.5 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [5] - Short-term Shibor rates rose, with the overnight rate up 4.6 basis points to 1.483% and the 7-day rate up 4.4 basis points to 1.519% [5] Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Securities noted that economic data from August showed continued convergence, with external demand stronger than internal demand, suggesting a potential stabilization in the bond market [7] - CITIC Securities indicated that while August economic data was stable, pressures remain, and the bond market's response to fundamental factors is currently muted [7] - Guosheng Securities highlighted that economic data indicates a further slowdown in supply and demand, suggesting that the bond market may experience fluctuations but is gradually returning to fundamentals [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under pressure due to the strong stock market, and the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows has increased. The bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [2]. - Repo rates have rebounded, and Treasury futures prices are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the decline of the 2512 basis. There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [3]. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [8]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%; M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a growth rate of 0.20% [8]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.67, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.65 and a decline rate of 0.67%; the offshore US dollar against the RMB is 7.1126, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.010 and a decline rate of 0.14%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.48, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.34%; DR007 is 1.50, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.98%; R007 is 1.51, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 and a decline rate of 3.26%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.08%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.08% [8]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of Treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each Treasury bond futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each Treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each Treasury bond futures variety, etc. [10][13][15] III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local bond issuance situation [25][31] IV. Spread Overview There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the inter - period spread trend of each Treasury bond futures variety, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [29][33][34] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [36][40][46] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [48][52] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [55][56] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures There is no specific text description, but there are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [62][68]

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 10-year main contract up by 0.15% and the 5-year main contract up by 0.13% [1] - The yield on the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" decreased by 1.5 basis points to 2.0790%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" yield fell by 1.6 basis points to 1.7840% [1] Funding Situation - The central bank conducted a 287 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 40 billion yuan for the day [2] - The interbank market saw an increase in overnight repurchase weighted rates above 1.44%, indicating a tightening funding situation despite the central bank's liquidity injections [2] Operational Suggestions - Despite a tightening funding situation, the bond market is showing signs of recovery due to improved cost-effectiveness and expectations of renewed bond purchases by the central bank [3] - The bond market remains uncertain, with factors such as market risk appetite and potential policy changes influencing future stability [3]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 287 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on September 16, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 40 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 247 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [1][2]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market maintained a tightening state, with the overnight repo weighted average rate rising nearly 3 basis points to above 1.44%. Overnight funding supply was unstable above 1.5%, with non-bank institutions borrowing overnight funds at around 1.5% [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was at 1.68%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Bond Market Overview - Most major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a decline in yields, while government bond futures closed mostly higher, with the 10-year main contract rising by 0.15% [9][13]. Group 5: Recent Policy Measures - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments released policies to expand service consumption, proposing 19 measures to enhance service supply and meet diverse consumer needs [14]. Group 6: Global Macro Developments - Japan's chief negotiator announced a reduction in U.S. tariffs on Japanese automobiles to 15% starting September 16. The Bank of Korea's monetary policy committee discussed the need to consider household debt growth and trade negotiations with the U.S. in future policy decisions [16][17]. Group 7: Bond Issuance Updates - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 30 billion yuan of 91-day discount treasury bonds on September 17, while the China National Railway Group will issue 25 billion yuan of railway construction bonds [18].

流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题 ➢ 风险提示：政府债供给超预期，货币政策超预期，经济表现超预期。 [Table_Author] 四季度是否会有供给冲击？ 2025 年 09 月 16 日 ➢ 9 月 12 日国务院新闻办召开新闻发布会介绍"十四五"时期财政改革发展成效，继 续落实好一揽子化债举措，提前下达部分 2026 年新增地方政府债务限额，靠前使用化债 额度，多措并举化解存量隐性债务。 ➢ 如何理解提前下达部分 2026 年新增地方政府债务限额？自 2018 年开始，全国人 大常委会就通过了《关于授权国务院提前下达部分新增地方政府债务限额的决定》，授权 期限持续到 2022 年底，但 2023 年全国人大常委会将授权期限延期至 2027 年底。根据 《决定》要求，提前下达次年的新增地方政府债务限额应为当年新增地方政府债务限额的 60%以内，即 2025 年可以提前下达的最大限额应为 5.2*60%=3.12 万亿元，提前下达限 额为常规操作，这部分规模并不会影响 2025 年地方债供给情况，而是用于 2026 年上半 年的新增债务发行。从 2020 年-2025 年上半年新增债的实际情况来看，提前下达的规模 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is in a weak recovery, with all Treasury bond futures closing higher. The bond market is oscillating between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - The stock market's strong performance boosts risk appetite, which suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and rising global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (+0.56%); M2 year - on - year growth is 8.80% with no month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% (+0.20%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 97.32, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 (-0.30%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.1213, with a month - on - month increase of 0.005 (+0.07%); SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.47, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 (+0.68%); DR007 is 1.48, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 (+1.76%); R007 is 1.51, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 (-3.26%); the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.57, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 (+0.40%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 (+0.40%) [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple figures are presented, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of Treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various Treasury bond futures varieties, the precipitation of funds in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the proportion of open interest in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the net open interest proportion of the top 20 in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short open interest ratio of the top 20 in various Treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and the issuance of Treasury bonds [14][15][18][24]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - Figures show the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the issuance of local government bonds [27]. IV. Spread Overview - Figures display the inter - delivery spread trend of various Treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of cash bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [31][36][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [39][40][48]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [50][54]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [57][59]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year Treasury bond futures and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [64][70]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: As the repurchase rate rises, the price of Treasury bond futures oscillates [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - From September 8 - 12, 2025, the central bank had a net injection of funds through 7 - day reverse repos, and conducted a 600 - billion - yuan 6M outright reverse repo operation on September 15. The weekly average of the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio decreased. The net contribution of government bonds increased, and most of the maturity yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) rose. The money market rate increased marginally, with a tight - then - loose pattern during the week. From September 15 - 21, 2025, the expected net contribution of government bonds is 397.55 billion yuan, and the maturity scale of NCDs is about 850.1 billion yuan [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Money Market - **Central Bank's Fund Injection**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repo had a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan. On September 15, a 600 - billion - yuan 6M outright reverse repo operation was carried out, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan for the month. By conducting outright reverse repos and MLF operations in different periods of the month, it helps maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity [6]. - **Money Market Tightening**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 increased by 7.3 and 6.9 basis points respectively compared with September 1 - 5. The average values of DR007 and R007 increased by 2.7 and 2.0 basis points respectively. The money market tightened marginally, and there will still be impacts from tax payments and quarter - end factors in the later period [7]. - **Government Bond Net Contribution**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the net contribution of government bonds was about 344.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 222.6 billion yuan compared with September 1 - 7. From September 15 - 21, 2025, the expected net contribution of government bonds is 397.55 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Maturity Yields**: As of September 12, 2025, the maturity yields of 1M and 3M NCDs increased by 10.6 and 1.0 basis points respectively compared with September 5, and the 1Y NCD maturity yield increased by 0.5 basis points [8]. - **Net Financing**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 468.3 billion yuan. From September 15 - 21, 2025, the expected maturity repayment amount of NCDs is 850.1 billion yuan, and the pressure of maturity renewal has decreased compared with the previous week [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio**: From September 8 - 12, 2025, the average value of the estimated inter - bank bond market leverage ratio was 107.55%, lower than the estimated average value of 107.70% from September 1 - 5 [9].