Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract down 0.10% at 111.960 yuan, the 10-year main contract up 0.02% at 108.260 yuan, the 5-year main contract up 0.06% at 105.905 yuan, and the 2-year main contract up 0.03% at 102.414 yuan [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds showed mixed movements, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond "25国开15" yield rising by 0.30 basis points to 1.9610%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" yield fell by 0.30 basis points to 1.8120%, and the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" yield decreased by 0.15 basis points to 2.2500% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 1,055 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on February 3, with a fixed rate of 1.40%, and the full bid amount was accepted [2] - On the same day, 4,020 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,965 billion yuan [2] - The overall funding conditions in the interbank market remained stable, with the weighted average rate of DR001 dropping about 5 basis points to around 1.31% [2] News Updates - The central bank reported liquidity injection for January 2026, with a net withdrawal of 79 billion yuan from the Standing Lending Facility (SLF), a net injection of 700 billion yuan from the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), and a net injection of 1,744 billion yuan from the Pledged Supplementary Lending (PSL) [3] - The central bank will conduct an 8,000 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation on February 4, with a term of 3 months (91 days), aiming for a net injection of 1,000 billion yuan after accounting for 7,000 billion yuan of 91-day reverse repos maturing on the same day [3] Operational Suggestions - The recent rebound in the equity market has slightly suppressed long bond sentiment, but the central bank's announcements of 1,000 billion yuan bond purchases and a 1,000 billion yuan net injection through buyout reverse repos support expectations for a loose funding environment [4] - In the absence of further catalysts, the 10-year bond yield may continue to fluctuate within the 1.8%-1.85% range, while the T2603 contract may oscillate between 108-108.3 [4] - It is suggested to maintain range trading strategies and consider narrowing the spread between ultra-long bonds and other varieties, especially with the seasonal rise in funding rates before the Spring Festival [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dynamics of the capital market, highlighting that most participants believe they are smarter than the average investor and can predict market movements, yet the reality is that many end up losing money [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The central bank conducted a 1,055 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 4,020 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,965 billion yuan [3]. - The central bank announced an 8,000 billion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation with a term of three months, indicating a proactive monetary policy stance [3]. - The market saw a mixed performance in long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond rate fluctuating around 1.815% [6]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Trading Volumes - The interbank funding rates remained stable, with DR001 around 1.32% and DR007 at approximately 1.50% [4]. - The weighted rates for various funding codes showed slight changes, with R001 at 1.40% and R007 at 1.55%, reflecting a decrease of 1 basis point [5]. - The trading volume for R001 was 79,433.25 million yuan, indicating a significant increase of 5,639.96 million yuan [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The stock market and commodities experienced a rebound, attributed to expectations of the central bank's bond-buying scale, with a threshold of 500 billion yuan considered a positive surprise [6][7]. - A notable event was the sharp decline of a popular silver LOF fund, which dropped 31.5%, marking a record single-day decline for public funds, while trading at a nearly 100% premium [7].

Group 1: Domestic News - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of combining short-term and long-term strategies to effectively promote development and improve people's livelihoods during his research in Shandong [2] - The Central Committee and the State Council approved the "Modern Capital Metropolitan Area Spatial Coordination Plan (2023-2035)", which aims to enhance the capital's functions and promote high-quality regional development [2] Group 2: International News - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for January in the U.S. rose significantly from 47.9 to 52.6, surpassing expectations of 48.5, indicating robust growth in new orders and production [5] - A trade agreement between the U.S. and India was reached, reducing U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, with India agreeing to lower its tariffs on U.S. products [6] Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 4.71% to $62.14 per barrel and Brent crude down 4.36% to $66.30 per barrel [7] Group 4: Financial Market - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 750 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan due to 1,505 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [8] - The money market remained stable, with the DR001 rate rising by 3.65 basis points to 1.364% and the DR007 rate falling by 10.2 basis points to 1.491% [9] Group 5: Bond Market - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.50 basis points to 1.8150% [9] - In the credit bond market, significant price deviations were noted, with "H0 Zhongjun 02" dropping over 72% and "H1 Bidi 03" dropping over 56% [11] Group 6: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline, with major indices falling by 2.39% to 2.31%, and a total trading volume of 850.83 billion yuan, down 81.89 billion yuan from the previous trading day [14]

Group 1 - Nickel futures market experienced a significant sell-off due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on liquidity tightening, with LME nickel closing down 2.91% at $17,045 per ton, a decrease of $510 per ton from the previous trading day [1] - Domestic nickel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also showed weakness, with the main contract closing at 132,670 yuan per ton, down 3,860 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.83% [1] - The LME nickel inventory reported on February 2 was 285,528 tons, a decrease of 756 tons from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The SHFE nickel futures opened lower, with the main contract starting at 132,640 yuan, down 3,890 yuan, and continued to decline throughout the trading session [2] - The sharp decline in nickel prices was attributed to a dramatic reversal in U.S. monetary policy expectations, particularly following the nomination of a hawkish figure as Fed Chair, which raised concerns about prolonged high interest rates and potential balance sheet reduction [2] - Strong U.S. manufacturing data provided support for tightening policies, leading to a surge in the U.S. dollar index, which negatively impacted the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities and triggered a collective withdrawal of global funds from the commodity market [2] Group 3 - Nickel prices are expected to exhibit a "volatile consolidation with slight declines" in the short term, with a focus on the price range of 134,000 to 135,000 yuan per ton [3] - The short-term price movements are primarily influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and liquidity conditions, while medium to long-term price recovery is anticipated as macro shocks are gradually absorbed [3] - Structural tightening in global nickel supply and increasing demand from downstream sectors such as new energy are expected to drive prices into a recovery channel in the future [3]

Market Overview - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40% on February 2, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan for the day [3][4]. - The interbank market remains stable, with the weighted average rate of DR001 rising over 3 basis points to approximately 1.36% [5][6]. - The latest one-year interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) traded around 1.60%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [7][8]. Bond Market - The yield on major interbank bonds showed mixed movements, with the 30-year contract rising by 0.18%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts fell by 0.03% and 0.02%, respectively [12]. - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 300 billion yuan in 28-day discount treasury bonds on February 3 [17]. - Agricultural Development Bank will issue up to 100 billion yuan in financial bonds on February 3 [17]. Regulatory Updates - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced new tax deduction measures for long-term assets, effective from January 1, 2026 [13]. - The central government approved a spatial coordination plan for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban system, aiming to enhance the capital's influence and optimize urban structure [13]. Risk Monitoring - Recent non-standard asset risks in urban investment include several defaults and risk alerts related to various investment plans and trust products [19].

[Table_Title] 2 月债市，关注资金与风偏 [Table_Title2] 利率月报 [Table_Summary] ►1 月债市，高开低走 回顾 1 月债市，长端利率经历预期之外的高开低走行情，供 需变化、风偏调整、机构行为、税期扰动成为主要影响变量。10 年国债收益率起步于 1.85%，月初高点一度摸至 1.90%，随后便 进入渐进回落阶段，月末收于 1.81%。 从结构性视角来看，尽管利率债行情不弱，但资管类机构似 乎倾向于在年初奠定高静态收益的基础，票息资产更受欢迎，3-5 年的中长期信用债、二永债表现更为占优。 ►2 月债市，四大关注 一是供需结构。继 1 月发行不及预期后，1 月 20 日前后地方 政府密集修正 2 月的地方债发行计划。按照最新测算结果，预计 2月国债、地方债净发行规模分别为4200、6500亿元，合计1.07 万亿元，总量上与 1 月的 1.18 万亿元规模相近，或在一定程度上 缓和年初供不应求的错配状态。从发行节奏上看，2 月政府债供 给压力集中前置的问题，同样值得关注，2 月首周政府债单周发 行量将达到 9767 亿元，约占 2 月总发行量的 53%，过于密集的 供 ...

Group 1 - The macro liquidity environment is balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a net reverse repo of 580.5 billion and a net MLF injection of 700 billion [4][10][11] - The stock market shows a structural divergence in funding supply, with an increase in equity fund issuance and a recovery in leveraged funds, while ETFs experience significant net outflows [5][12][13] - The stock market's funding demand pressure has eased, with equity financing rising to 11.244 billion, and the scale of locked-up shares being released decreasing to 49.09 billion [20][21] Group 2 - The stock market funding supply shows a significant net outflow for the CSI 300 index for three consecutive weeks, with a total net outflow of 2,446.02 billion this week [5][12][19] - The net inflow of financing is concentrated in the non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals sectors, while the electronics and defense industries see net outflows [5][18] - The overall scale of equity financing has increased, driven by a significant rise in IPOs, with 4 IPOs raising 5.549 billion this week [21][27] Group 3 - The stock market's funding demand has shown signs of relief, with a decrease in the scale of locked-up shares released and a reduction in significant shareholder sell-offs [20][21] - The total amount of locked-up shares released this week is 49.09 billion, down from 59.55 billion the previous week, with the highest release values in the power equipment and machinery sectors [21][24] - The net reduction in significant shareholder holdings is 12.278 billion, a decrease from 14.508 billion the previous week, with the electronics and communications sectors seeing the most significant reductions [21][28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices on both domestic and international markets rose strongly and reached new highs, then quickly corrected. The sharp rise was driven by capital and market sentiment, deviating from the fundamentals. After the speculative sentiment fades, copper prices will gradually return to the pattern of "strong expectation" and "weak reality" dominated by fundamentals. In the short - term, be vigilant about the high - level volatility of copper prices, and in the long - term, wait for demand verification [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Macro aspect: After the Fed's first interest - rate meeting this year, the interest rate remained unchanged. The market had anticipated the delay of the interest - rate cut policy. The US dollar index weakened to a historical low, then rebounded after Trump nominated Warsh as the next Fed chairman [2]. - Supply end: The long - term supply shortage story is still solid. There are frequent disturbances in the mining end, and Chinese smelters' production cut plans due to low processing fees have intensified supply - side concerns. The supply shortages in the mining and smelting ends support copper prices at the bottom [2]. - Demand end: As the Spring Festival approaches, traditional downstream industries enter the off - season, with light procurement activities. The high spot prices following the futures rise have suppressed physical demand [2]. Key Concerns - Pay attention to the latest US economic data and downstream demand changes [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data This Week | Indicator | Unit | This Week's Latest | Last Week's Same Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | 104410 | 100680 | 3730 | 3.70% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | - 140 | - 180 | 40 | 22.22% | Weekly | | Clean copper concentrate forward spot comprehensive index (TC) | US dollars/dry ton | - 50.2 | - 49.8 | - 0.4 | - 0.80% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | Yuan/ton | 105390 | 101810 | 3580 | 3.52% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | Tons | 174975 | 171700 | 3275 | 1.91% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | Tons | 233004 | 225937 | 7067 | 3.13% | Weekly | | COMEX copper inventory | Short tons | 577724 | 562605 | 15119 | 2.69% | Weekly | [3] 1. Futures Market Review - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai copper, London copper, and the Shanghai - London ratio (without excluding exchange rates) in the form of graphs, with data sources from Boyi Master and Ningzheng Futures [5][6][7] 2. Supply Situation Analysis - The report shows the copper concentrate forward spot price (in TC price), the average processing price of crude copper, copper concentrate port inventory, domestic electrolytic copper production, the price change trends of electrolytic copper and scrap copper, and the refined - scrap price difference in the main markets in the form of graphs, with data sources from the Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [12] 3. Demand Situation Analysis - The report shows the 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%) in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rate, refined copper rod trading volume, Yangshan copper bonded area premium, and electrolytic copper warehouse receipt bill of lading premium (pyrometallurgical) in the form of graphs, with data sources from iFinD, the Steel Union Terminal, and the Steel Union Data [15] 4. Inventory Situation Analysis - The report shows the electrolytic copper spot inventory and the inventories of three major futures exchanges in the form of graphs, with data sources from the Steel Union Terminal and iFinD [17]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant improvement in trading sentiment, with transaction volumes reaching historical highs, indicating a strong upward trend since mid-December 2025 [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a 17-day consecutive rise, reaching its highest level in nearly a decade, with average daily transaction volumes exceeding 30 trillion yuan since the beginning of 2026 [1]. - The market's active trading environment is characterized by a high turnover rate of 5.7%, the most active since 2015, with a record transaction amount of 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, 2026 [1][12]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Retail investors have been increasingly entering the market, with an average of 2.43 million new accounts opened monthly in Q4 2025, driven by a "scarcity of assets" and the relative attractiveness of the stock market [2][18]. - High-risk preference funds, including margin financing and private equity, have seen significant increases in their positions, with margin financing balances surpassing 2.7 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [1][16]. Group 3: Fund Flows - Stock ETFs have experienced a shift in growth momentum, with significant inflows into industry-themed ETFs, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals and aerospace, reflecting changing investor preferences [3][22]. - Northbound capital has shown a gradual return to the A-share market, with a net inflow of 117 billion yuan in Q4 2025, as global monetary conditions favor Chinese assets [4][24]. Group 4: Institutional Investment - Insurance funds have accelerated their entry into the market, with stock and securities investments reaching 5.6 trillion yuan, the highest since 2013, indicating a growing commitment to equity investments [5][26]. - Active funds have regained excess returns, with the mixed equity fund index yielding 11.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 7 percentage points, leading to a positive trend in fund issuance and redemption [5][28]. Group 5: Sector Focus - Institutional investors have increased their focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals and telecommunications, while reducing exposure to electronics and biopharmaceuticals, reflecting a strategic shift in portfolio allocations [8][34]. - The market is expected to maintain a relatively active trading sentiment, supported by low interest rates and a favorable environment for equity investments, with potential for further inflows from both domestic and foreign investors [9][39].

2. 资金面 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，1月30日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了4775亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量4775亿元，中标量4775亿元。Wind数据显 示，当日1250亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放3525亿元。当周实现净投放5805亿元。 2月2日到6日当周，央行公开市场将有17615亿元逆回购到期，此外，2月4日将有7000亿元91天期买断式逆回购到期。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 银行间市场资金面整体平稳均衡，DR001加权平均利率降超3bp至1.32%附近。匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价在1.30%，供给在百亿左右。交易员 称，跨月整体比较平稳；同时央行公开市场逆回购操作力度加大，呵护意图明显。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为3.64%。 // 债市综述 // 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.60%位置，较上日小幅下行。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 10年期主力合约涨0.06% 5年期主力合约涨0.01% ...