Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the liquidity situation from July 21 - 25, 2025, indicating that the capital market shows a state of tight funds and rising interest rates, but the market's expectation of the capital side is stable. The central bank's attitude of caring for the capital side helps maintain the stability of capital interest rates, but there are still uncertainties in the stock market and redemptions [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Funding Situation** - The open - market maturity was 2046.8 billion yuan last week, with a net investment of 10.95 billion yuan. The capital side was slightly tight, and the average value of DR007 was basically flat compared with the previous week, while the average value of R007 increased by 2BP. Exchange repurchase rates also increased [1]. - The total maturity of certificates of deposit (CDs) was 1076.48 billion yuan last week, with a net financing scale of - 560.79 billion yuan. The 1 - year AAA CD maturity yield increased compared with the previous week. The 1 - year FR007 interest rate swap average decreased compared with the previous week, and the market's expectation of the capital side was stable [2]. **Repurchase Transaction** - The volume of pledged repurchase transactions was between 7.1 - 8.1 trillion yuan last week, and the average volume of R001 repurchase transactions increased by 454 billion yuan compared with the previous week. The undelivered repurchase balance decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of institutions, the lending scale of large - scale banks decreased, while that of money market funds increased. The borrowing scales of securities firms and funds decreased, while that of wealth management increased [4]. **Other Market Indicators** - The 6M national stock bill transfer quotation decreased compared with the last trading day of the previous week. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate decreased slightly, and the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed. There may be increased exchange rate fluctuations this week due to trade negotiations and central bank meetings [5]. **This Week's Key Concerns** The open - market capital maturity this week is 1656.3 billion yuan. Important economic data such as the eurozone and US Q2 GDP, China's July official PMI, the US July FOMC interest rate decision, and the US July ISM manufacturing index and unemployment rate will be released. Attention should also be paid to the central bank's open - market investment operations [6].

Group 1: Market Adjustments - The bond market experienced significant adjustments from July 21 to 25, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.73% (+6.9bp) and the 30-year yield reaching 1.95% (+7.5bp) due to concentrated negative factors[11] - The average duration of interest rate bond funds, credit bond funds, and financial bond funds has decreased to 3.47 years, 1.24 years, and 1.49 years respectively, indicating a return to relatively safe positions after previously high durations[22] - The net outflow of funds from the banking system dropped significantly from over 4 trillion yuan in early July to less than 3 trillion yuan by July 25, raising concerns in the bond market[24] Group 2: Redemption Pressures - From July 21 to 25, the net subscription index for pure bond funds showed negative values, with significant redemption pressures peaking at -29.2 on July 24[27] - The total scale of wealth management products decreased by 125.2 billion yuan to 30.95 trillion yuan, reflecting redemption pressures amid a strong performance in equity and commodity markets[43] - Despite the redemption pressures, wealth management products continued to show net buying behavior, with a total net purchase of 107.6 billion yuan during the same period, indicating that liquidity management pressures remain manageable[51] Group 3: Risk Preferences and Market Outlook - The recent surge in commodity prices, with increases of 73.4% for coking coal and 43.3% for polysilicon, has raised concerns about inflation and its potential impact on the bond market[33] - The bond market may have already passed its most challenging period, with expectations of a stable funding environment supported by the central bank's actions[41] - The upcoming clarity from U.S.-China negotiations and the July Politburo meeting may influence risk preferences, with potential short-term cooling in the stock market expected[41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term (1 - 3 months), medium - term (3 - 6 months), and long - term (6 - 12 months) rating for treasury bonds is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week as exchanges cool down commodities and the Politburo meeting's incremental policies are likely limited. The central bank will maintain market liquidity, and funds are expected to return to a loose state after the month - end. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [2][14] - It is difficult for market risk appetite to continue rising next week. The commodity market rally is driven by sentiment, and there is a risk that market expectations for incremental policies may be disappointed. Market risk appetite is expected to decline gradually [14] - There is no basis for the continuous tightening of the funds market. After the month - end, the funds market is expected to loosen, and the sentiment in the treasury bond market may improve [15][16] - Market fluctuations will continue in Q3, and a trend - based market may not appear until Q4. The bond market is not at risk of a long - term bear market, and it will turn bullish after the central bank's interest - rate cut expectations rise [16] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From July 21 - 27, treasury bond futures declined significantly. Influenced by various factors such as investment news, commodity price changes, and central bank policies, the prices of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main contracts decreased by 0.108, 0.420, 0.615, and 2.410 yuan respectively compared to last weekend [13] 3.1.2 Next Week's Outlook - Market sentiment is expected to improve, but fluctuations will persist. Risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and trend - based market may appear in Q4. Strategies include cautiously gambling on oversold rebound opportunities, considering short - hedging strategies, and constructing curve - steepening strategies [2][14][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 84 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 939.805 billion yuan and a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds increased, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. As of July 25, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 4.92, 9.14, 7.07, and 9.15 basis points respectively compared to last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads widened, while the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed [26][27] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures declined significantly. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures increased, while the open interests of 2 - year and 5 - year contracts changed, with the 10 - year and 30 - year contracts showing an increase in open interest [35][38] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - Positive - arbitrage opportunities were not obvious this week. The IRR of CTD bonds of each main contract was between 1.4% - 1.8%, and the positive - arbitrage strategy opportunities were relatively few [42] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of July 25, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures 2509 - 2512 contracts were - 0.082, - 0.060, - 0.015, and + 0.220 yuan respectively. The long - term far - season contracts declined slightly more [45][46] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Funds Market - The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 705 billion yuan this week, but the overall net investment was 109.5 billion yuan. The funds rate increased slightly, and the average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased [49][52][54] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index weakened slightly, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield declined slightly. As of July 25, the US dollar index decreased by 0.80% to 97.6701, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.40%, a 4 - basis - point decline from last weekend [61] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices rose across the board this week, while agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of July 25, the South China industrial product index, metal index, and energy - chemical index increased, while the prices of pork, vegetables, and fruits changed differently [64] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - Next week, it is recommended to cautiously gamble on oversold rebound opportunities. Long - term, there is no bearish view, but it may be too early for allocation funds to go long. Consider short - hedging strategies and construct curve - steepening strategies [2][65]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The central bank first withdrew and then injected funds, leading to a situation where the funds were initially tight and then loosened. It is expected that the central bank will continue to support the market. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Funds - **Fund prices and bill rates**: The R001 closed at 1.55% (previous value: 1.49%), DR001 at 1.52% (previous value: 1.46%), R007 at 1.69% (previous value: 1.51%), and DR007 at 1.65% (previous value: 1.51%). The 6M national stock bank draft transfer and discount rate closed at 0.72% (previous value: 0.81%). [1] - **Central bank's open - market operations**: The central bank had a net injection of 1095 billion yuan this week. It continuously withdrew funds in the first four days, with a cumulative net withdrawal of 6923 billion yuan, and then made a large - scale net injection of 8018 billion yuan on Friday. [1] - **Bond yields**: The 10 - year treasury bond yield increased by 7.24bp in the first four days and 6.72bp for the whole week to 1.73%; the 30 - year treasury bond yield increased by 9.05bp in the first four days and 8.40bp for the whole week to 1.97%. [1][2] II. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Maturity yields**: The 3M, 6M, and 1Y maturity yields of certificates of deposit increased by 4.69bp, 6.16bp, and 5.75bp respectively. The 1Y - 3M term spread widened. [2] - **Net financing and issuance**: The net financing of certificates of deposit was - 5598 billion yuan this week (previous value: 1444 billion yuan). The issuance interest rates of 1 - year certificates of deposit for state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks increased. The weighted average issuance term shortened to 7.3M (previous value: 8.3M). [2] III. Institutional Behavior - **Government bond issuance and payment**: This week, the net issuance of government bonds was 3031 billion yuan, and the net payment was 3472 billion yuan. Next week, the expected net issuance is 4030 billion yuan, and the net payment is 2947 billion yuan. [3] - **Repurchase trading volume and leverage ratio**: The pledged repurchase trading volume first rose to 8.0 trillion and then fell to 7.1 trillion, with an average daily volume of 7.70 trillion yuan (previous value: 7.24 trillion yuan). The inter - bank market leverage ratio first rose to 109.10% and then fell to 108.39%, with an average daily ratio of 108.85% (previous value: 108.65%). [3]

Group 1 - The market has shown a continued upward trend, with the CSI 300 index increasing by 1.69%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.67%, and the CSI 500 index by 3.28% over the past week [3] - The steel sector has been highlighted as a leading performer, with a weekly increase and a cumulative excess return of over 11% since July [3][5] - The recent infrastructure projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, have sparked positive expectations regarding the economic cycle, reminiscent of the 2008 stimulus measures [4][5] Group 2 - The market is currently experiencing a shift from institutional investment to retail trading, leading to increased volatility in the short term [5] - The recommendation is to maintain a high position in both the main board and small-cap sectors, while being prepared for potential adjustments in the future [6] - The current market dynamics suggest that the core driving variable for A-shares remains the liquidity situation, rather than just fundamental improvements [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the liquidity demand remained high, and the central bank's net - withdrawal in the first half - week and the rise of the stock market and some commodities led to the unexpected convergence of the capital market. The capital market shifted from loose to neutral - tight, with overnight capital interest rates rising and large - bank net lending first increasing and then decreasing. Next week, as the month - end approaches, the central bank's attitude of timely support remains, and the pressure on the capital market may be marginally relieved, but the central bank's response to large - scale open - market withdrawals and the recovery of large - bank lending scale will be important determinants of the month - end capital market and interest rates [2][11][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Analysis of the Pressure at the Month - End after the "Roller - Coaster" of Funds - This week, due to large liquidity demand and the central bank's withdrawal of tax - period liquidity, the capital market shifted from loose to neutral - tight. Overnight capital interest rates reached a relatively high level since June, large - bank net lending first increased and then decreased, and the primary and secondary prices of certificates of deposit (CDs) rose slightly in the second half of the week. The average weekly values of DR001, R001, DR007, and R007 changed by - 2.56, - 2.77, 0.23, and 1.55BP respectively compared with the previous week. The week - average of the capital stratification between R001 and DR001 decreased by 0.21BP, and that between R007 and DR007 increased by 1.32BP [11] - The reasons for the unexpected convergence of the capital market are the central bank's net - withdrawal in the first half - week and the diversion of bond - market funds by the rising stock market and some commodities. Next week, the central bank's support attitude remains, and the pressure on the capital market may be marginally relieved as the issuance scale of government bonds and the maturity scale of CDs decline, and fiscal expenditures may accelerate at the end of the month. However, the central bank's response to open - market withdrawals and the recovery of large - bank lending will be crucial [24][25][26] 3.2. Open Market: The Maturity Scale Will Decrease Slightly Next Week - From July 21 to July 25, the open - market net injection was 1.095 billion yuan. The 7 - day reverse repurchase was issued 165.63 billion yuan and matured 172.68 billion yuan, the Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) was issued 40 billion yuan and redeemed 20 billion yuan, and the treasury cash fixed - deposit was issued 10 billion yuan and matured 12 billion yuan. From July 28 to August 1, the open - market maturity will be 165.63 billion yuan, all of which are 7 - day reverse repurchases [3][30] 3.3. Government Bonds: The Issuance Scale Will Decrease Next Week - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 27.1 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 51.72 billion yuan, including 18 billion yuan of treasury bonds and 33.72 billion yuan of local bonds. The net payment of treasury bonds is - 2 billion yuan, and that of local bonds is 30.76 billion yuan. This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 1.07 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 3.8421 trillion yuan this year and an issuance progress of 62%. The issuance of new local bonds was 22.87 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 3.1534 trillion yuan and an issuance progress of 61% [41][42] 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Prediction - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in July 2025 will be about 0.97%, a month - on - month decrease of about 0.31pct and a year - on - year decrease of 0.52pct. The predicted excess reserve at the end of June is about 403.68 billion yuan. From July 21 to July 25, the open - market net injection was 1.095 billion yuan, the net payment of government bonds was 27.1 billion yuan, the predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure difference was 5.49 billion yuan, and the reserve payment was - 14 billion yuan [46][47] 3.5. Money Market: The Net Lending of Large Banks First Increased and then Decreased - Most capital interest rates increased. As of July 25, compared with July 18, DR001, DR007, R001, and R007 increased by 6.08, 14.56, 6.41, and 18.65BP respectively. The weekly average of SHIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by - 2.72 and 0.08BP respectively to 1.47% and 1.51%. The weekly average of CNH HIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by - 18.16 and - 7.62BP respectively to 1.56% and 1.63%. The weekly average of FR007S1Y and FR007S5Y interest rates changed by - 0.21 and 4.82BP respectively to 1.53% and 1.57%. The weekly average of six - month national - share transfer and six - month city - commercial transfer interest rates changed by - 0.1pct to 0.74% and 0.85% respectively [49][55][58] - The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.6986 trillion yuan, an increase of 45.4 billion yuan compared with July 14 - 18. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged treasury bond repurchase was 2.1359 trillion yuan, an increase of 450 million yuan compared with July 14 - 18 [60] - This week, the average net lending of the banking system was 3.18 trillion yuan, a change of 175.5 billion yuan compared with last week. The average net lending of large state - owned banks was 3.87 trillion yuan, a change of 253.5 billion yuan compared with last week, with an overnight lending ratio of 97%, a change of - 0.1% compared with last week. The average net lending of other banks was - 0.69 trillion yuan, a change of - 77.9 billion yuan compared with last week [65] 3.6. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit 3.6.1. Primary Market: The Maturity Scale Will Decrease Next Week - From July 21 to July 25, the total issuance of inter - bank CDs was 51.57 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 55.43 billion yuan, a decrease in both issuance scale and net financing compared with last week. By issuer, city - commercial banks had the highest issuance scale and net financing. By term, 1 - year CDs had the highest issuance scale and net financing [72] - Next week (July 28 - August 3), the maturity scale of inter - bank CDs will be 40.29 billion yuan, a decrease compared with this week. The maturity scale is mainly concentrated in national - share banks and city - commercial banks, and the terms are mainly concentrated in 1 - year and 3 - month CDs [82] - The weighted issuance term of inter - bank CDs this week was 7.25 months, a compression compared with last week's 8.3 months. The issuance success rate of share - holding banks was the highest, and the 3 - month issuance success rate was the highest among different terms [76][78] 3.6.2. Secondary Market: Yields Increased - Driven by the marginal convergence of the capital market this week, the secondary yields of CDs increased significantly. The yields of AAA - rated CDs of all terms increased, and the yields of 1 - year CDs of all ratings increased [96] - Compared with the previous week, the spreads between 1 - year CDs and R007, R001, 7 - day OMO, and 1 - year treasury bonds changed to - 1.87BP, 12.28BP, 27.5BP, and 29.15BP respectively [100]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of market sentiment, indicating that negative news can significantly impact market dynamics, especially when confidence is low [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a large net injection of 601.8 billion yuan through a 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with 1,875 billion yuan maturing today [2]. - The funding environment has shifted from tight to loose, with overnight rates declining; DR001 fell by 13 basis points to approximately 1.52%, while DR007 increased by 8 basis points to around 1.65% [3]. - The weighted average rates for various repo codes showed a decline in R001 by 14 basis points to 1.55%, while R007 increased by 9 basis points to 1.69% [4]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The 10-year government bond yield opened slightly higher at 1.7425%, reaching a peak of 1.752% due to tight funding conditions, before dropping to a low of 1.716% [5]. - The bond market is experiencing a shift in focus, with investors increasingly looking at commodity prices and their impact on bond yields, indicating a need for a broader understanding of market dynamics [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Commodity Prices - The article highlights a strong performance in commodity markets, with various commodities like coking coal reaching limit-up prices, while the bond futures market experienced a decline [5]. - There is a growing sentiment among investors regarding the potential for commodity prices to rise significantly, with speculative targets for the stock market being discussed [6].

2025 年 7 月 25 日星期五 投 贸易战避险有所消退 金弱银强持续分化？ www.shanjinqh.com 作者：林振龙 资 投资 咨询资 格证号： Z0018476 审核：曹有明 Z0013162 复核：刘书语 F03107583 电话：021–2062 7529 邮箱： linzhenlong@sd-gold.com 报告导读 一、避险属性 咨 1、贸易协议分批达成，美欧贸易协议谈判取得进展，拟统一 15%关税税率， 地缘风险缓和削弱避险需求； 询 部 2、特朗普多次威胁解雇鲍威尔，特朗普视察美联储总部，表示仍希望降 息但不会解雇鲍威尔，市场担忧缓和。 投资 咨询资 格证号： 二、货币属性 2、世界白银协会预期由于需求下降 1%，总供应量增加 2%，预计 2025 年 全球白银供需缺口将收窄 21%，降至 1.176 亿盎司，仍有约 3658 吨。 四、资金面： 近期 CFTC 管理基金金银净多头重新增仓；国内沪金期货公司净多高位减 仓，沪银机构净多小幅减仓；世界最大黄金 ETF 和白银 ETF 结束长期下行趋势 后缓慢增仓。 黄 金 白 银 1、最新美国经济数据好坏参半。美国 6 月成屋销售跌 ...

Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 331 billion yuan at a fixed rate with an interest rate of 1.40%, with a total bid amount of 331 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 331 billion yuan. On the same day, 450 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank market's funding conditions have tightened further, with a decrease in funding supply. The overnight repurchase weighted rate (DR001) rose nearly 28 basis points, surpassing the 1.65% mark. In the overseas market, the latest overnight financing rate in the US is 4.28% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64% [6] Bond Market - The yields on medium to long-term bonds in the interbank market increased by approximately 3 basis points, while government bond futures saw a significant decline, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 0.92% [8][10] Government Bond Futures - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.92%, the 10-year main contract down 0.29%, the 5-year main contract down 0.21%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.07% [10] Policy Announcements - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation released a draft for public consultation on the amendment to the Price Law, aiming to clarify standards for unfair pricing behaviors, including low-price dumping and price collusion [11] - The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued opinions to enhance financial services for rural reforms, emphasizing increased financial resource input in key areas of rural revitalization and innovative financing models [11] - Beijing's Development and Reform Commission reported that all 320 major projects in the city commenced in the first half of the year, with investment growth of 14.1%, outpacing the national growth rate of 11.3% [12] Global Macro - The Reserve Bank of Australia's chairman expects core inflation to gradually decline to 2.5%, while the global economy faces uncertainty. Monthly data suggests that core CPI may not meet expectations, prompting a cautious and gradual easing path [14] Bond Market Events - In June, the northbound trading of Bond Connect reached 852.8 billion yuan, and in the first half of the year, securities firms underwrote technology innovation bonds totaling 381.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.48% [16]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 3,310 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,195 billion yuan due to 4,505 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1]. Group 1: Market Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term products increased significantly, with the overnight Shibor rising by 26.80 basis points to 1.6350%, while the 7-day and 14-day Shibor rose by 8.20 basis points and 8.80 basis points, respectively, to 1.5450% and 1.6150% [1][2]. - In the interbank pledged repo market, rates for various products also increased, with the overnight and 7-day rates rising to 1.6515% and 1.5759%, respectively, while the transaction volumes for these products decreased [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - On July 24, the funding environment showed a trend of tightening followed by easing, with overnight funding rates initially high at 1.80%-1.85% before dropping to around 1.50% by the end of the day [9]. - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit saw 25 issues with a total issuance amount of 387.4 billion yuan by the end of the day [10]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The PBOC announced plans to conduct a 4,000 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on July 25, with a net injection of 1,000 billion yuan due to 3,000 billion yuan of MLF maturing, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [12]. - A joint opinion from the PBOC and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized enhancing financial services for rural revitalization, focusing on food security and financial support for agricultural development [13].