智通财经12月11日讯（记者 夏淑媛）继9月、10月分别降息25基点后，今日美联储再宣布降息25个基 点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%。 美联储如期降息，对我国货币政策将产生什么影响？财通证券首席经济学家孙彬彬表示："我国当前适 度宽松总基调不变，货币政策仍然要强化逆周期和跨周期调节，外部限制放松的前提下，总量型政策有 其可能性。"粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒表示："在美联储降息的窗口期，中国货币政策能够更加'以 我为主'，进一步降准降息。" 新一期智通财经"C50风向指数"结果也显示，尽管本月银行间流动性或阶段性承压，但在央行呵护态度 下，12月资金缺口压力不大，跨年流动性有望维持平稳。在20家参与调查的市场机构中，1家认为基本 不存在流动性缺口；16家认为整体资金缺口压力或处于季节性偏大水平，12月的流动性缺口或在1.6万 亿元附近；3家认为中性趋紧，流动性缺口超过2万亿元规模。展望2026年，多家市场机构认为2025年国 内50个bp的降准和10bp的降息低于预期，2026年我国或再有1-2次降准，累计幅度25-50BP。 "C50风向指数调查"是由智通财经发起，由市场中的各类研究机 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of monetary policy in China, highlighting a shift towards a more nuanced approach that balances liquidity management and financial stability, particularly in the context of the bond market and economic growth support. Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2025 - In 2025, the overall liquidity environment is characterized as "quantitative easing plus stability," with a focus on enhancing the execution and transmission of monetary policy rather than aggressive counter-cyclical adjustments [1] - The central bank has been iterating its tools since mid-2024 to improve liquidity control and guide bond market pricing, providing relatively cheap medium- to long-term funds without signaling clear interest rate cuts [1] - The optimization of liquidity tools serves a dual purpose: to avoid concentrated speculation around loose monetary expectations while enhancing the sensitivity of major banks to central bank liquidity injections [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Goals for 2026 - The monetary policy in 2026 is expected to maintain a supportive stance, with a significant change in the target function emphasizing that "broad credit" does not equate to indiscriminate "broad loans" for households and enterprises [2] - With fiscal policy beginning to take effect, the role of monetary policy will shift towards providing a stable liquidity environment to support fiscal growth, ensuring the stability of the financial system and avoiding systemic risks [2] - The focus will be on improving interest rate transmission within the financial system and stabilizing the interest margin as a core observation indicator [2] Group 3: Central Bank Operations and Interest Rate Adjustments - The central bank is likely to continue a "quantitative easing plus stability" approach, with the overnight interest rate lower limit around OMO-10bp, and will focus on "lengthening" funding in the medium to long term [3] - The central bank may implement 1-2 interest rate cuts totaling 10-20 basis points throughout 2025 and 2026, primarily responding to key statements and unlocking long-term funding costs [3] - The timing of interest rate cuts may depend on the effectiveness of reducing bank funding costs, particularly through lowering deposit rates, potentially delaying until mid-2026 [3] Group 4: Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) Adjustments - The necessity for RRR cuts is expected to decrease, with only one potential cut of 50 basis points anticipated in 2026, likely occurring in the first quarter [4] - The central bank's motivation for RRR cuts is relatively low due to the opportunity cost of releasing long-term funds and a cautious stance on large-scale long-term funding injections [4] - Government bond purchases may serve as a substitute for RRR cuts, with the first quarter being the most probable window for any RRR adjustments [4]

12月初，央行继续通过买断式逆回购操作向银行体系注入流动性。 据中国人民银行网站12月4日消息，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年12月5日，将以固定数量、利率 招标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月（91天）。 这一操作，恰好对冲当月到期的10000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购 —— 也就是说，这是等量续作，也是 该工具连续第二个月 "原样续上"。 同业存单到期高峰：12月银行同业存单到期规模高达3.7万亿元，创年内新高，滚续压力陡增。 这些因素叠加，很容易造成短期资金面 "抽紧"。而央行提前出手，通过买断式逆回购注入中期流动 性，正是为了 "未雨绸缪"，稳住资金面，不让市场 "缺水"。 为何是 "等量续作" 而非加码？ 虽然表面看是 "平进平出"，但背后藏着央行对年末流动性格局的精准拿捏。 什么是 "买断式逆回购"？ 这项工具其实并不算新面孔 ——2024年10月28日，央行正式启用公开市场买断式逆回购操作工具，标 志着该工具进入常态化应用阶段。简单来说，就是央行主动向一级交易商买入债券并约定未来买回，相 当于 "先给钱、后收券"，直接向市场注入中期流动性。 相比传统逆回购（ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The four stock index futures varieties showed a stable rebound last week, with relatively large rebound amplitudes in CSI 1000 and CSI 500. All main contracts remained in the futures discount mode. The A - share market presented features of "index stabilization, sector - structure differentiation, and focused capital preference" last week. The market turnover decreased compared to the previous week, and the trading sentiment was still cautious. In November, the market showed an overall pattern of volatile adjustment, with significant differentiation in the trends of major stock indices. The core hotspots were concentrated in the battery industry chain, regional themes, and computing power hardware. Some state - owned large - scale banks in the weight camp also reached new stage highs, indicating the capital's preference for low - valuation and high - dividend assets in a volatile market [2] - In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity declined, possibly due to weak demand and fewer working days. Looking ahead, the long - term liquidity released by the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and the increasing policy expectations due to the approaching Central Economic Work Conference support the market to bottom out and rebound. However, external market fluctuations may cause short - term emotional fluctuations. The short - term market may continue the feature of "bottom - range oscillation with a focus on structure" [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Review - The four stock index futures varieties mainly rebounded stably last week, with relatively large rebound amplitudes in CSI 1000 and CSI 500. The basis of the four stock index futures varieties fluctuated slightly, and all main contracts were in the futures discount mode. The basis of the main futures contracts (futures - spot) was - 6.42 for IH, - 20.86 for IF, - 57.35 for IC, and - 73.41 for IM. The A - share market showed "index stabilization, sector - structure differentiation, and focused capital preference" last week. By the Friday close, major stock indices generally rose slightly, but the weekly trading volume decreased compared to the previous week, and the trading sentiment was cautious. In November, the market was in a volatile adjustment pattern, with significant differentiation in the trends of major stock indices. The core hotspots were in the battery industry chain, regional themes, and computing power hardware. Some state - owned large - scale banks in the weight camp reached new stage highs, reflecting the capital's preference for low - valuation and high - dividend assets in a volatile market [2] Comprehensive Analysis - In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity decline might be related to weak demand and fewer working days. Looking ahead, the long - term liquidity released by the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and the increasing policy expectations due to the approaching Central Economic Work Conference support the market to bottom out and rebound. However, external market fluctuations may cause short - term emotional fluctuations. The short - term market may continue the feature of "bottom - range oscillation with a focus on structure" [3][4]

Macro - President Xi Jinping and President Trump held a phone call, emphasizing the overall stability and positive direction of China-U.S. relations, advocating for cooperation and mutual respect [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with predictions of a potential new round of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts by year-end [3] Market - U.S. stock markets rebounded with the Nasdaq rising 2.69%, marking the largest single-day gain since May, driven by expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with an 81% probability [2][13] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 2.82%, reflecting positive sentiment in Chinese concept stocks [2][13] Industry - Trump signed an executive order to launch the "Genesis Project," aimed at utilizing artificial intelligence to transform scientific research and accelerate discoveries, directing the Department of Energy to create an AI experimental platform [4] - The domestic AI competition is intensifying with Alibaba's launch of the Qianwen project, indicating a shift towards application-level AI, with expectations for increased investment in AI infrastructure [10] - The storage sector is experiencing a strong rebound, with predictions of long-term tightness in memory supply driven by surging AI inference demand, suggesting a super cycle for storage companies [11] - China's space exploration initiatives are gaining momentum, with plans to explore the origins of life in the universe, indicating potential investment opportunities in the commercial space sector [12]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has injected 1 trillion yuan through MLF, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations, aimed at maintaining liquidity and supporting credit growth to stabilize economic expectations [1] Monetary Policy Actions - The central bank is utilizing various monetary policy tools to ensure ample liquidity in the market, which is expected to encourage financial institutions to increase credit issuance [1] - There is a possibility of implementing a new round of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts by the end of the year, as indicated by analysts [1] Economic Outlook - Given the fluctuations in the external environment and changes in domestic economic growth momentum, new policies aimed at stabilizing growth may be introduced to support macroeconomic performance in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is injecting liquidity into the banking system through MLF and reverse repos to counter potential liquidity tightening, aiming to maintain a stable and ample funding environment, which supports government bond issuance and encourages financial institutions to increase credit supply [1][2]. Group 1: MLF Operations - On November 25, the PBOC announced a 10 trillion yuan MLF operation, with 9 trillion yuan of MLF maturing this month, resulting in a net injection of 1 trillion yuan, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1]. - The total net liquidity injection for November, including a 5 trillion yuan reverse repo, reached 6 trillion yuan, consistent with the previous month and maintaining a high level for four consecutive months [1]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The PBOC's actions are seen as a response to tightening liquidity in the banking system, driven by factors such as the maturity of bank interbank certificates and the completion of new policy financial tools, which are expected to increase government bond issuance and support credit growth [1][2]. - The central bank's continued support through MLF indicates a commitment to a supportive monetary policy stance, which is crucial for stabilizing economic growth and expectations amid recent macroeconomic fluctuations [2][3]. Group 3: Future Predictions - Predictions suggest that a new round of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts may be implemented by year-end, driven by external economic conditions, domestic growth dynamics, and the need to stabilize the real estate market [2]. - The anticipated policies, marked by the "two 5 trillion yuan" measures, are expected to enhance fiscal strength and monetary easing, contributing to a stable macroeconomic environment for the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year [2].

Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy in 2026 is expected to maintain a supportive stance, with potential for 1-2 rate cuts corresponding to a 10-20bps reduction[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate within the range of 1.70%-2.0%, while the 30-year yield may range from 1.90%-2.30%[1] - The central bank may implement 1 trillion yuan in net purchases of government bonds, equating to a 50bps reduction in reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in terms of liquidity supply[2] Interest Rate Corridor Adjustment - The interest rate corridor is expected to narrow, with DR001 becoming the benchmark rate, guiding fluctuations around the 7-day reverse repurchase rate[2] - The new interest rate corridor may see adjustments, with a target range of 70bps for the upper and lower limits based on temporary reverse repo rates[2] Interest Rate Pricing and Spread Management - The focus will shift towards managing the interest rate spread while maintaining a reasonable interest rate relationship, particularly between loans and government bonds[3] - The average weighted interest rate for loans was 3.24% as of Q3 2025, with the after-tax yield on loans at 1.787%, closely matching the 10-year government bond yield of 1.76%[3] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include unexpected inflation due to "anti-involution" policies and the possibility of monetary policy easing if economic performance falls short of expectations[3] - The banking sector may face challenges with asset duration mismatches and unstable deposit scales, necessitating timely adjustments in monetary policy to enhance liquidity supply[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the bond market may move in a volatile manner. The short - end has high allocation and trading value, and the inter - bank certificate of deposit rate is in a high - allocation - value range with the possibility of an unexpected decline at the end of the year. The long - end has some room for repair due to the previous expansion of the term spread. With the increasing expectation of easing, a more optimistic view on the subsequent bond market can be taken [2][9]. - To maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, it is necessary to maintain the growth rates of social financing and money supply, and pay attention to the red - line level around 8%. If the growth rates fall below this level, it may trigger monetary easing [2][4][10]. - The current interest - rate comparison relationships concerned by the central bank are relatively reasonable, which is a prerequisite for further reducing policy rates. After the large - scale repurchase in November, the necessity for the central bank to increase bond purchases and cut the reserve requirement ratio is low. The conditions for another reduction of policy rates are mature. For the bond market, the yield may maintain a narrow - range oscillation. A reduction in policy rates will bring an opportunity for the yield curve to shift downward, but the short - end has a more solid foundation for decline, while the long - end still faces strong cashing - out pressure [3][4][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 How to Understand the Relatively Loose Social Financing Conditions? - **Bond Market Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the bond market may move in a volatile way. The short - end has high value, and the long - end has repair space. With the increasing easing expectation, the subsequent bond market can be viewed more optimistically [2][9]. - **Social Financing and Money Growth Rates**: Credit growth decline is not a major concern, but a further decline in social financing and money growth rates needs attention. The 8% growth - rate range reflects economic growth and price - expectation targets, and a fall below it may trigger monetary easing. The social financing growth is affected by the government bond issuance rhythm, and non - bank deposits maintain high volatility [10]. - **Interest - Rate Relationships and Policy Implications**: The current interest - rate comparison relationships are relatively reasonable. To maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, policy rates and related interest - rate levels can be further reduced to hedge economic pressure from a "cross - cycle" perspective [12]. - **Central Bank Operations**: After the large - scale repurchase in November (the combined scale of 3 - month and 6 - month repurchases reached 500 billion, and the stock scale rose to a new high of 6.3 trillion), the necessity for the central bank to increase bond purchases and cut the reserve requirement ratio is low [14].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a period of consolidation with limited fluctuations in both futures and cash bonds, as market participants remain cautious following recent significant news and events [1] Market Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures showed minimal changes, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.03% to 116.16, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts remained flat at 108.415 and 105.875 respectively [2] - The interbank bond market displayed slight differentiation, with the yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" rising by 0.25 basis points to 1.805%, while the yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" fell by 0.15 basis points to 1.8745% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields increased across the board, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.18 basis points to 4.121% [3] - Japanese government bond yields also rose, with the 10-year yield up by 0.4 basis points to 1.699% [4] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds increased, with French bonds rising by 3.9 basis points to 3.415% and German bonds up by 4.4 basis points to 2.686% [4] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds at 1.78% and 1.81% respectively, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.67 for both [5] - The China Export-Import Bank's 3-year floating rate bond had a winning rate of 1.6579% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 7.72 [6] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation totaling 212.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 71.1 billion yuan for the day [7] - The Shibor rates showed mixed movements, with the overnight rate rising by 4.8 basis points to 1.363% [7] Institutional Perspectives - Institutions suggest that the likelihood of a comprehensive rate cut is low, with the central bank favoring a mix of liquidity management tools rather than standalone rate cuts [9] - The anticipated window for interest rate cuts is expected to open between Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year, with the bond market likely to price in expectations of monetary easing in advance [9]