Core Viewpoint - The financial market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in October has significantly increased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 89.8% on September 30 to 98.9% on October 14 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October has decreased from 10.2% to 1.1%, indicating a strong shift towards anticipated rate cuts [1] - The cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut by December has reached 94%, reflecting a clear trend towards monetary easing [1] - Economic data supporting this expectation includes a decline in private sector employment by 32,000 in September, significantly below the expected decrease of 51,000 [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The capital markets have begun to respond to the strengthened expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with noticeable changes in the bond market yield curve [2] - Some investors are preemptively positioning themselves in interest-sensitive assets, while the dollar index has shown signs of volatility and weakening [2] - If the Federal Reserve proceeds with the expected rate cut, it may lead to lower loan rates for consumers, potentially impacting the housing market and consumer credit [2] Group 3: Economic Implications - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions will directly influence the trajectory of the U.S. economy, with market expectations reflecting broader economic outlooks [2] - As the October meeting approaches, the market will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policy direction and its potential economic impacts [2]

Market Overview - The major indices experienced slight fluctuations in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.6% to a peak of 3899.96 points, marking a ten-year high since August 2015 [1] - However, the indices collectively plummeted, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping nearly 2% to a low of 3801 points, almost breaching the 3800-point mark [1] - Over 4300 stocks in the market declined, while the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.167 trillion yuan, an increase of over 760 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Market Sentiment and Analysis - The sharp decline in the A-share market raised questions among investors about whether this is the end of the rally or a buying opportunity [3] - The drop was attributed to three main factors: weakness in financial heavyweight stocks, a technical correction following the Fed's interest rate cuts, and psychological pressure at key market levels leading to a defensive shift in main capital [3] - The Fed's interest rate cuts were in line with market expectations, but uncertainties remain regarding future rate cuts as indicated by Fed Chair Powell's "risk management-style rate cuts" [3] Sector Performance - The previous market rally led to significant profit-taking in certain sectors, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which saw substantial price corrections as investors opted to realize gains [5] - The cautious outlook on future policies and economic data, exacerbated by the "September 18" special date, heightened risk aversion among investors, leading to increased selling pressure [5] - Historical patterns in A-share bull markets show that sharp declines are common, with notable instances in 2007 and 2015 where sudden drops occurred amidst overall market rallies [7][8] Stock Highlights - Despite the overall market downturn, certain sectors like tourism and consumer goods showed resilience, with stocks such as Yunnan Tourism and Qujiang Cultural Tourism hitting the daily limit [10] - The technology sector, particularly semiconductor stocks, faced significant declines, with companies like Dongxin Co. and Cambrian Technologies dropping over 14% and 17% respectively [10] - Conversely, the retail and banking sectors performed well, with retail stocks like Huijia Times and Guofang Group achieving daily limits, and Agricultural Bank of China rising over 5% to set a new historical high [11] Investment Strategy - In the context of market volatility, it is crucial for investors to focus on companies with strong fundamentals, high R&D investment, and stable cash flows, as these firms tend to be more resilient during downturns [15] - Historical experience suggests that sharp declines can serve as a "self-cleaning" mechanism for the market, eliminating weak hands and profit-takers, thereby setting the stage for future rallies [13] - A prudent investment approach involves gradually buying in at different price levels to mitigate risks, especially during periods of increased volatility [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant surge in AI demand and its impact on the stock market, particularly in the technology and semiconductor sectors, while also addressing concerns about a potential "AI bubble" similar to the internet bubble of the late 1990s [1][7]. Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced a notable rise, with major indices such as the Dow Jones increasing by over 100 points, the Nasdaq rising by more than 0.8%, and the S&P 500 gaining approximately 0.6% [1]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged by over 2%, indicating strong performance in the semiconductor sector [3]. Company Highlights - Nvidia's stock rose nearly 2%, with CEO Jensen Huang noting a significant increase in computing demand over the past six months [1][9]. - Other semiconductor companies also saw gains, including AMD (+6.14%), Micron Technology (+4.98%), and TSMC (+3.98%) [4]. - Dell Technologies experienced a surge of over 7% after raising its revenue and profit forecasts due to strong demand for AI infrastructure [4]. AI Demand and Industry Outlook - Huang emphasized that AI models are transitioning from simple problem-solving to complex reasoning, leading to exponential growth in computing demand [9][10]. - Nvidia plans to invest $100 billion in building a large-scale data center for OpenAI, which will require significant energy resources [11]. - Concerns were raised about whether industry leaders can secure enough power to support their ambitious plans, with Huang suggesting the need for new power generation capabilities outside the grid [11]. Market Sentiment and Risks - Analysts express caution regarding the concentration of investments in the AI sector and the potential risks associated with a market that may be overly excited [7][8]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has had limited immediate impact on the stock market, but prolonged uncertainty could affect market sentiment [8].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 4%-4.25%, marking the beginning of a global liquidity easing cycle [1] - The rate cut is characterized as a "risk management cut" by Chairman Powell, aimed at balancing labor market risks and persistent inflation pressures [2] - The dot plot indicates an increase in rate cut expectations for 2025 from 2 to 3 times, while only one cut is expected in 2026-2027, with the final rate projected at 3.125% [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Opportunities - Hong Kong stocks are in a "shaking upward channel," with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.6% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 5.1% [4] - External capital is returning to Chinese assets, with structural opportunities in sectors like AI technology, consumer electronics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [4] - Historical data shows a significant calendar effect, with the Hang Seng Index averaging a 1.6% increase in the five trading days following the National Day holiday over the past decade [4] Group 3: U.S. Market Dynamics - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock indices reached new highs, driven by a tech surge, particularly with Nvidia investing $5 billion in a partnership with Intel [7] - The derivatives market experienced a "gamma squeeze," leading to a surge in trading volume for the S&P 500 [7] - Small-cap stocks are showing signs of recovery, with the Russell 2000 index lagging behind the broader market, benefiting from eased short-term debt pressures [7] Group 4: Asset Allocation Trends - Gold holdings are showing a divergence between institutions and retail investors, with SPDR Gold Trust increasing by 1.8% week-on-week, while retail investors reduced holdings through SPDR Minishares [10] - Global ETF flows indicate a structural preference for stocks, with a net inflow of $92.97 billion into stock ETFs, led by technology and financial sectors [10][12] - Emerging markets, particularly China, are attracting significant capital, with a net inflow of $1.08 billion into Chinese stock ETFs [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has sparked mixed reactions among investors, with some optimistic about a bull market while others express concerns about a potential economic recession [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Analysis - Analysts from Manulife and Legg Mason describe the rate cut as a "risk management-style cut," highlighting the ongoing conflict between the labor market and inflation [3]. - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing opportunities and traps in a fluctuating market, rather than being swayed by news [3][4]. Group 2: Survival Strategies in Volatile Markets - Stocks face two perpetual challenges: increasing follow-the-trend trading and profit-taking, creating a psychological battle among investors [4]. - A personal anecdote illustrates that market fluctuations are not inherently risky; rather, the inability to discern the underlying intentions of capital movements poses the greatest risk [4]. Group 3: Insights from the Solar Industry - A notable market trend observed in August 2025 showed that despite strong performance in the bus sector, the struggling solar sector surged, challenging traditional notions of "value investing" [5]. - This indicates that stock price movements are often driven more by capital behavior than by earnings or valuations [5]. Group 4: Institutional Inventory as a Market Indicator - The concept of "institutional inventory" is introduced as a tool to penetrate market complexities, providing a quantitative view of institutional trading behavior [8][11]. - A comparison of stock performance based on institutional activity reveals that true risk lies in the withdrawal of institutional funds rather than price volatility [11]. Group 5: Post-Rate Cut Investment Strategies - The Federal Reserve's rate cut is expected to influence global capital flows, necessitating a focus on actual capital movements for individual stock operations [12]. - During periods of policy easing, institutions tend to frequently adjust their portfolios, making "institutional inventory" data particularly significant [12]. Group 6: Recommendations for Ordinary Investors - In an era of information overload, relying solely on news analysis is insufficient; more objective and quantitative tools are needed for decision-making [13]. - "Institutional inventory" serves as one of many quantitative tools that help differentiate between genuine institutional actions and retail investor trends, revealing that market fluctuations can present opportunities rather than threats [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - 4Q25 macro - tone is generally favorable for precious metals, but price volatility is expected to increase. Market expectations of interest - rate cut rhythm, economic outlook interpretations, and supply bottlenecks of platinum and palladium will drive price fluctuations and asset performance differentiation [13]. - For non - ferrous metals, the contradiction lies in whether macro - level benefits can offset micro - level demand weakness and supply contradictions. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely between the bottom range provided by macro - level easing expectations and the top range formed by industrial fundamentals pressure [2][45]. - The core drivers of black commodities will revolve around policy uncertainty and demand effectiveness. Prices are supported in the early stage but face significant downward risks in the middle and later stages of the quarter [3][57]. - The core contradiction of energy and chemical commodities is whether macro - level easing expectations can offset the fundamental pressure at the bottom of the industrial cycle. 4Q25 will be a bottom - grinding process [4][76]. - For agricultural products, export - country control measures may create artificial supply shortages and upward price risks, while import - country procurement rhythms, quota management, and domestic substitution policies form downward price pressure. La Nina - induced supply contraction expectations and current supply pressures and weak global macro - demand will drive price trends [5][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals: Risks after the Interest - Rate Cut "Boot Drops" - **Monetary Policy Path Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut in September started a new round of easing, but the rhythm, depth, and end - point of the subsequent path are uncertain. Hawkish risks (slower - than - expected rate cuts) will push up the US dollar index and real yields of US Treasuries, negatively affecting precious metals. Dovish risks (faster - than - expected rate cuts) will be a major positive for all precious metals [13][23][26]. - **Economic "Landing" Form Risk**: The market will sway among "soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery scenarios in 4Q25. A "soft landing" is beneficial for the precious - metal sector as a whole. A "hard landing" will lead to significant differentiation within the sector, with gold rising and silver, platinum, and palladium potentially falling. Premature recovery trading may cause gold to face pressure while silver and platinum may benefit [29][30][31]. - **Supply - Side and Geopolitical Risk**: Supply - side risks mainly affect platinum and palladium due to their concentrated production in South Africa and Russia. Any production interruption in these countries can cause price surges. Geopolitical risks will increase the volatility of gold and silver, with gold having a more sustainable safe - haven premium [33][35]. - **Structural Market Dynamic Change Risk**: The sustainability of central - bank gold - buying demand is in doubt. The "platinum - for - palladium" substitution in the automotive industry is a long - term negative for palladium and a positive for platinum. Speculative funds in the precious - metal market are profit - seeking and volatile, which can amplify price fluctuations [37][42][44]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals: Macro - Level Benefits and Industrial Weakness Risks - **Macro - Economic Narrative Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut provides support for non - ferrous metals, but different economic scenarios ("soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery) will have different impacts on non - ferrous metals. A "soft landing" is beneficial for copper, aluminum, and lithium to different extents. A "hard landing" will hit all industrial non - ferrous metals. Premature recovery trading will bring a "Davis double - click" for copper and aluminum [45][46][47]. - **Sino - Foreign Policy - Level Risk**: China's "anti - involution" policies may affect the supply of polysilicon, industrial silicon, and potentially copper and aluminum. Trade frictions, political instability in Guinea, and lithium - mine supply risks in Africa also pose threats to non - ferrous metals [50][52]. - **Supply - Side Bottleneck Risk**: Global copper - mine supply is tight, which is a strong support for copper prices. The resumption time of some lithium mines in China is uncertain, which creates two - way risks for lithium prices [53][55]. 3.3 Black Commodities: Policy Game and Demand Downturn Risks - **Downstream Demand Structural Differentiation and Total Slowdown Risk**: The real - estate industry's weakness suppresses the demand for construction steel and the entire black - commodity chain. The manufacturing industry provides support for plate - type steel, but its demand may face challenges in 4Q25. Infrastructure investment may also slow down, affecting the demand for construction steel [58][59][60]. - **Supply - Side Policy Risk**: The implementation of the "flat - control" policy for crude - steel production is uncertain. Strict implementation will benefit steel prices but harm raw - material prices, while non - implementation or under - implementation will lead to supply - surplus pressure on steel prices [66]. - **Raw - Material Supply - Side Structural Risk**: Iron - ore supply is expected to increase seasonally, which may lead to price declines. Coking - coal supply, especially for high - quality coking coal, is tight, which supports coking - coal and coke prices and squeezes steel - mill profits [70][71]. - **Inventory and Market Structural Risk**: Steel inventories face a cyclical inflection point. If post - holiday demand is weak, it will lead to passive inventory accumulation and price declines. Iron - ore port inventories may accumulate, which will pressure iron - ore prices [74]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals: Long - Term Capacity Clearance and Prolonged Bottom - Grinding Risks - **Geopolitical and Supply - Side Seasonal Risk**: Geopolitical risks, such as the situation in the Red Sea and OPEC+ production policies, can affect oil prices. In winter, natural - gas supply shortages in Iran may increase methanol prices, and LPG supply may also be affected [77][81]. - **Inventory Level and Industrial - Chain Internal Profit Risk**: The global crude - oil market is expected to enter a stocking phase in 4Q25, which may put downward pressure on oil prices. High inventories of some chemicals, such as methanol and LPG, will suppress their prices. Profit - distribution contradictions in the chemical industrial chain are intensifying [83][84][87]. - **Structural Over - Capacity and Industry Profit - Cycle Risk**: The chemical industry is in a long - term over - capacity situation. Polyolefins, methanol, and LPG are severely affected. The process of capacity clearance is slow, and the low - price, low - profit industry pattern will persist [89][90]. 3.5 Agricultural Products: Risks under Policy and Weather Interference - **Key Countries' Policy Risk**: Export - control measures of major agricultural - product exporters can cause price surges, while import - country policies, such as China's procurement and quota management, can limit price increases [92]. - **Terminal Demand Weakness Risk**: Global economic slowdown weakens consumer purchasing power, affecting the demand for cotton, oils, sugars, and feed raw materials. China's internal demand also has structural risks, and changes in bio - fuel policies can affect the demand for corn and vegetable oils [98][100][103]. - **Global Supply Cycle Risk**: The concentrated listing of Northern - Hemisphere autumn - harvest crops brings short - term supply pressure. The long - term supply situation is affected by policies and climate [91]. - **Global Climate Risk**: The evolution towards La Nina poses risks to the upcoming Southern - Hemisphere sowing season and Southeast - Asian production [91].

Core Viewpoint - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, USD deposit rates have entered a downward trend, with expectations for further reductions in the future [1][2]. Group 1: USD Deposit Rate Changes - A foreign bank's USD deposit products now offer rates of 3.5% for 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month terms, and 3.05% for 12-month terms, with a 10 basis points (BP) reduction for 1-month and 20 BP for 6-month terms compared to previous rates [1]. - In South China, a foreign bank previously offered rates above 4% for short-term USD deposits, which have now been reduced to 3.75%, 3.85%, and 3.90% for the same terms [1]. - In North China, general account USD deposit rates have been adjusted to 3.1% for 1-month, 3.3% for 3-month, and 3.05% for 6-month terms, with VIP account rates being 45 BP higher [1]. Group 2: Future Expectations and Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut is characterized as a "risk management cut," aimed at preventing deterioration in the job market, with an implied 50 BP of additional cuts expected within the year [2]. - Different banks are adjusting their rates at varying paces, with state-owned banks maintaining more stable rates compared to foreign and city commercial banks, which are more flexible due to their dollar positions and market competition [2]. - Short-term rates are under greater downward pressure, with expectations that 3-month to 6-month rates may continue to decline, while long-term rates may adjust more moderately [2]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors should be cautious of the risks associated with declining rates and shrinking investment returns, recommending a preference for short-term products to allow for timely strategy adjustments [3]. - Currency fluctuations and hedging costs should be considered, as a weaker dollar could lead to reduced actual returns on USD deposits, with options for hedging through forward contracts or structured deposits [3]. - Liquidity and minimum deposit requirements are important factors, as some high-yield products may have significant withdrawal penalties, necessitating careful fund allocation based on liquidity needs [3].

Group 1: Oil Market Overview - Since September, the oil market has shown a range-bound trend due to oversupply and geopolitical risks in the Middle East, with a downward shift in the price focus expected in Q4 [1] - OPEC+ has agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, abandoning the "production cut to support prices" strategy in favor of prioritizing market share, leading to increased global oil supply pressure [3][4] - The U.S. oil production is expected to rise, with the EIA predicting a record output of 13.44 million barrels per day by 2025, driven by an increase in drilling activity [5] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. sanctions on Iran, are contributing to supply uncertainty, which may limit the adjustment space for oil prices [7][8] - The U.S. and EU have intensified sanctions against Russia, including a price cap on Russian oil set at $47.6 per barrel, which could further impact global oil supply dynamics [7] Group 3: Demand Outlook - Major energy agencies maintain an optimistic outlook for global oil demand, with the EIA forecasting consumption to reach 103.8 million barrels per day by 2025, an increase from previous estimates [9] - Despite the positive demand outlook, concerns about oversupply persist, with expectations of significant increases in oil inventories due to OPEC+ production hikes [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report In September 2025, multiple employment data in the US indicated a cooling labor market, and the cost - pressure transmission of tariff adjustments was still slow. The economic recovery momentum in the Eurozone, Japan, etc., increased. In terms of monetary policy, the Fed's restart of interest rate cuts was fulfilled as expected, which was defined as a "risk - management - style" cut by Powell and was somewhat hawkish. The European and British central banks remained on hold, waiting for the tariff impact to become clearer. In October, attention should be paid to the fundamental performance of major countries, and the intensification of capital market volatility risks should be vigilant [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas Economy: Divergent Monetary Policy Trends and Overall Controllable Inflation Pressure 3.1.1 Global Economy: Resilient Economy and Manufacturing PMI Back in Expansion Zone The global economy remained resilient, and the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone. In August, the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI index was 50.9%, up 1.2 percentage points from 49.7% in July. Only the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI was above the 50 boom - bust line among major overseas countries. The global services PMI index decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 53.4% in August, maintaining high - level prosperity. In trade, the Baltic Dry Index fluctuated upward, and South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of September increased by 13.5% year - on - year. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, the European and British central banks remained on hold, and the Bank of Japan sent hawkish signals. The US Treasury Secretary considered "all stabilization options" to support Argentina [8]. 3.1.2 Developed Economies: Resilient Economies in Major Countries and Potentially Controllable Inflation Pressure - **US: Slowing Fundamental Growth Momentum and Cooling Labor Market** - Economic growth showed a divergence in prosperity. Manufacturing continued to contract, while the service industry expanded faster. In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7%, and the non - manufacturing PMI rose to 52.0%. - Newly added employment was far below expectations, and the unemployment rate reached a new high. In August, the non - farm payrolls increased by 22,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. - The inflation level was relatively moderate, and the pressure on commodity prices from tariffs was limited. In August, the US CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year. - Retail sales remained resilient, and the sustainability of consumption momentum needed attention. In August, US retail sales increased by 0.62% month - on - month. - The real estate market was restricted by high mortgage rates and rising housing prices [21][22][23]. - **Eurozone: Strengthening Recovery Momentum, Divergent Prosperity in the UK and Japan, and Unstable Manufacturing Recovery Foundation** - The Eurozone's recovery momentum increased. In August, the composite PMI rose to 51.0%, and the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7%. - The UK's manufacturing continued to contract, while business activities in the service industry accelerated expansion. In August, the UK's manufacturing PMI fell to 47.0%, and the service industry PMI rose to 54.2%. - Japan's economic prosperity was divergent. In August, the composite PMI rose to 52.0%, and the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%. - In terms of inflation, the Eurozone's inflation remained stable month - on - month, the UK faced greater pressure, and Japan's inflation remained high [35][37][39]. 3.2 Monetary Policy: US Restarts Rate Cuts, Europe and UK are Cautious, and Japan Sends More Hawkish Signals 3.2.1 Fed: "Risk - Management - Style" Rate Cut Implemented, Focus on Downward Employment Risks On September 18, the Fed cut interest rates for the first time this year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25BP to 4.0% - 4.25%. The policy balance shifted from focusing on inflation rebound to employment stall risks. The dot - plot predicted two more rate cuts in October and December. Whether to cut rates again in October depends on the performance of September's non - farm data, and the Fed's independence and the composition of the new council members have increased the uncertainty of future rate - cut prospects [54]. 3.2.2 ECB: ECB Continues to Hold Rates Steady, Inflation Risks are Roughly Balanced On September 11, the ECB held rates steady, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%. It believed that manufacturing and services were growing, and previous rate cuts would further boost consumption and investment. It raised inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026 and lowered those for 2027. In the future, it may continue to make data - dependent and meeting - by - meeting decisions [58]. 3.2.3 BoJ: Increased Probability of Interest Rate Hike, Planned Reduction of ETF and Other Assets On September 19, the BoJ kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and decided to gradually sell ETF and J - REITs in the market. Two officials voted against and supported a 25 - basis - point rate hike. If economic and price forecasts are realized, the BoJ may continue to raise interest rates, increasing the possibility of restarting rate hikes this year [61]. 3.2.4 BoE: BoE Maintains Interest Rates, Slows Down Quantitative Tightening, and Reduces Expectations of Rate Cuts This Year On September 18, the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep the policy rate at 4% and announced a reduction in the scale of central bank balance - sheet contraction from October. Concerns about inflation rebound made the market cautious about further rate cuts by the BoE this year [64]. 3.3 Financial Markets: US Treasury Yields First Declined and Then Rose, the US Dollar Index Weakened, and International Oil Prices Fluctuated 3.3.1 US Bond Market: Cooling Labor Market and Fed Rate Cut Implementation Led to Fluctuations in US Treasury Yields In September, the US bond market focused on the weakening labor market and the Fed's rate cut. In the first and middle of the month, the yield dropped from 4.28% to around 4%. In the late month, it rebounded to around 4.15%. Overall, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 2BP to 3.61%, and the 10 - year yield fell 8BP to 4.15% [67][68]. 3.3.2 Exchange - Rate Market: Weakening US Dollar Index, Fluctuating Japanese Yen, and Strengthening Euro and Pound - The US dollar index was overall weak. In early September, the downward risks in the labor market increased rate - cut expectations and pressured the US dollar. In the middle and late months, the Fed's rate cut was less dovish than expected, and the US dollar index rebounded. - The Japanese yen fluctuated in a narrow range between 146 - 148 due to the US dollar index and domestic political uncertainties. - The euro and pound strengthened overall. In the first and middle of the month, the Eurozone's economic indicators were positive, and the pound was supported by the UK's fiscal policy and the BoE's stance [69][70]. 3.3.3 International Crude Oil: Geopolitical Frictions and Oil - Demand Outlook Caused Volatility in Crude Oil Prices In September, international oil prices fluctuated around $63 per barrel. In early September, concerns about OPEC + production increases and US economic recession led to a price drop. Then, geopolitical tensions and reduced concerns about supply surpluses pushed prices up. In the middle and late months, the Fed's statement on employment risks and EU sanctions on Russia caused prices to fall again [74].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that despite the recent interest rate cut, the current monetary policy stance remains "moderately restrictive," suggesting potential for further rate cuts if labor market weakness continues to outweigh inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4%–4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025, described by Powell as a "risk management cut" to address warning signs in the labor market [1]. - Powell highlighted the dual risks of inflation and employment, stating that rapid or excessive rate cuts could keep inflation around 3%, deviating from the Fed's 2% target, while prolonged tight policies could unnecessarily suppress the labor market [2]. - Recent data indicates a significant slowdown in U.S. job growth, complicating the assessment of economic conditions, with labor supply shrinking due to stricter immigration enforcement policies [2][4]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Powell emphasized the need for vigilance regarding the inflation effects of tariffs imposed by President Trump, noting that tariff increases would take time to filter through supply chains, leading to a temporary rise in price levels over several quarters [2][3]. - The latest data and surveys suggest that price increases are primarily due to tariff hikes rather than broader price pressures [3]. Group 3: Market Valuation and Financial Stability - Powell acknowledged that stock market prices are relatively high, indicating that the Fed monitors the overall financial environment and assesses whether its policies are influencing it as intended [5]. - Despite recognizing the high valuations in the stock market, Powell stated that it is not currently a time of rising financial stability risks [5].