Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a decline of 4.02% from September 15 to September 19, ranking low among all primary industries, with various sub-sectors showing mixed performance [2][5]. Summary by Category Overall Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector fell by 4.02% during the week, ranking low among all primary industries [2]. - Among the sub-sectors, energy metals increased by 1.25%, while metal new materials, industrial metals, precious metals, and small metals declined by 3.06%, 3.90%, 6.17%, and 7.66% respectively [2]. Industrial Metals - Demand for industrial metals is slowly recovering as the peak season approaches, but the recovery is weak. The recent interest rate cut in the U.S. led to profit-taking, resulting in a pullback in industrial metals [2]. - As of September 19, copper prices fell, with LME copper at $9,997 per ton (down 0.71%) and SHFE copper at ¥79,910 per ton (down 1.42%) [3]. - Supply constraints are expected as domestic copper smelting plants undergo maintenance, and the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is temporarily shut down due to an accident [3]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices recorded a decline due to dissipating sanctions sentiment against Russia and profit-taking following the interest rate cut. LME aluminum closed at $2,676 per ton (down 0.93%) and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,795 per ton (down 1.54%) as of September 19 [4][5]. - The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry remained unchanged at 44.085 million tons, with slight increases in production utilization rates for aluminum products [4]. Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a pullback due to profit-taking after the interest rate cut, with COMEX gold closing at $3,719.40 per ounce (up 1.05%) and SHFE gold at ¥830.56 per gram (down 0.44%) [6]. - The U.S. economic data exceeded expectations, contributing to the market's reaction to the interest rate cut, which is expected to benefit precious metals in the medium term [6].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have been on an upward trend, reaching historical highs, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1][2][4]. Price Movements - As of September 22, the spot price of London gold reached a historical high of $3726.70 per ounce, marking an increase of nearly 8% from the opening price of $3447.50 per ounce on September 1 [1][2]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 40% [1]. Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% has caused fluctuations in gold prices [2]. - Following the rate cut, gold prices initially fell but rebounded due to ongoing expectations of further rate cuts and rising geopolitical risks [2][3]. Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that while some investors took profits after the rate cut, the overall sentiment remains bullish due to expectations of continued monetary easing and geopolitical uncertainties [3][4]. - Central banks are still in a net buying position for gold, indicating strong demand despite high prices [4]. Future Outlook - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are expected as some investors may choose to take profits, but long-term trends remain positive due to ongoing monetary easing and geopolitical risks [4]. - UBS Wealth Management anticipates that gold will continue to be a strong asset for portfolio diversification and risk hedging, supported by a weaker dollar and strong central bank buying [4].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year, with a total reduction of 125 basis points in the current easing cycle [2] - The median of the latest dot plot indicates an additional 50 basis points of potential cuts by 2025, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in the labor market and rising inflation, with Chairman Powell adopting a somewhat hawkish tone, indicating that the next steps in monetary policy remain unclear [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Dollar Performance - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with rising expectations for further Fed rate cuts, putting pressure on the dollar [3] - The total U.S. federal debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with public holdings at $28.95 trillion, nearly 80% of the total [3] - Concerns over the sustainability of U.S. government debt are increasing, which may weaken the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency [3] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reaching 1249 tons, with a significant 45% rise in value to $132 billion [4] - Central banks remain a crucial pillar of gold demand, with official reserves increasing by 166 tons in Q2, reflecting a long-term strategic approach to optimize foreign exchange reserves [4] - Geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of further Fed rate cuts are driving strong investment demand for gold, despite pressure on gold jewelry consumption due to high prices [4][5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The combination of a slowing U.S. economy, concerns over the Fed's independence, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties supports gold prices [5] - In the medium to long term, continued central bank purchases, along with global liquidity easing and de-dollarization trends, may lead to an upward shift in gold price levels [5]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to above 4.14% after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, despite expectations of a decline [1][2] - The stock market reached record highs with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Russell 2000 indices all setting new records [1] - The rise in long-term bond yields is attributed to market behavior of "buying the expectation and selling the fact" following the Fed's rate cut [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns about persistent inflation are significant, as recent data indicates that inflation remains sticky, complicating the Fed's ability to lower rates further [2][5] - High long-term yields increase government interest payments, potentially exacerbating the fiscal deficit and creating a vicious cycle [3][6] - The current economic environment poses a challenge for sustaining long-term financing costs above 4% [3] Group 3 - Future downward potential for long-term yields may be limited, with the Fed's dot plot indicating a median forecast for the federal funds rate at 3.6% by the end of 2025 [4][5] - The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts suggests that long-term Treasury yields may not quickly fall below 3% [5][6] - The market is adapting to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, necessitating a reassessment of asset allocations [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, but Powell's hawkish stance led to a rebound in the US dollar index. The market traded on the "buy the fact, sell the expectation" principle, causing copper prices to correct from their highs and give back gains. In the short term, copper prices found support at the 30 - day moving average and rebounded. With the upcoming National Day holiday, risk - aversion sentiment may intensify. It is recommended to take profits on long copper positions and either go empty or hold light positions during the holiday. Enterprises are advised to consider selling hedges at high prices to lock in reasonable profits. In the long term, copper is highly regarded as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation, combined with the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [6][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Economy - **Fed Interest Rate Decision**: On September 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.50% to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut since December 2024, signaling the start of an interest - rate cut cycle. It was a "risk - management" move to balance inflation and employment risks. It is expected that there may be two more rate cuts this year, and the median interest rate may drop to 3.6% by the end of 2025. However, due to factors such as long - term tariff impacts and an unimproved job market, the US economy may face higher downside risks in 2026, and the actual number of rate cuts may be more. Powell's remarks dampened the market's pricing for a 50bp recession - style rate cut and a significant decline in the terminal interest rate. The Fed's rate cut provides room for China's domestic monetary policy, but in the short term, the central bank may prioritize fiscal stimulus, and the probability of a rate cut is low. The US dollar index rebounded to 97.36, back above the 97 mark [11]. - **China's August Macroeconomic Data**: Social financing reached a peak and then declined, with weak credit. In August, the social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, 465.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year, lower than the seasonal level. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing was 8.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.8%, the same as the previous month; M1 increased by 6.0% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month. The gap between M2 and M1 narrowed to 2.8%. The growth rate of industrial added value, consumption, and investment all slowed down, and PPI rebounded. The growth momentum needs to be strengthened [14]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Copper Concentrate**: In August 2024, China imported 257.4 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a month - on - month increase of 18.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. From January to August, the cumulative import of copper concentrates was 1.8635 billion tons, a 3.2% increase from the same period last year. As of September 12, the port inventory was only 692,700 tons, 26.2% less than the average of the past three years. As of June 2025, the global monthly output of copper concentrates was 1.916 million tons, a decrease of 81,000 tons or 4.06% from May. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 79%, a 0.9% decrease from May. As of September 18, the SMM imported copper concentrate index was - 41.3 dollars/ton, and the copper concentrate TC was - 41.4 dollars/ton, still at a historically low level, with the smelting processing fee deeply inverted [36]. - **Scrap Copper**: As of September 19, the scrap - refined copper price spread was 1,752 yuan/ton, a decrease of 193 yuan/ton from last Friday, with relatively small fluctuations. In July 2025, China's imports of copper waste and scrap reached 190,100 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73% and a slight year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1.3355 million tons, a 0.77% year - on - year decrease. In July, the output of blister copper was 1.0413 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.64%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 6.9267 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.58%. In July, China imported 84,200 tons of anode copper, a year - on - year increase of 19.08%. From January to July, the cumulative import was 467,000 tons, a 12.72% year - on - year decrease. The domestic blister copper processing fee remained at 700 yuan/ton, and the CIF imported blister copper processing fee was 85 dollars/ton, at a historically low level [40]. - **Refined Copper**: In August, SMM's electrolytic copper output in China decreased by 28,000 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. From January to August, the cumulative output increased by 978,800 tons year - on - year, an increase of 12.30%. In August, the copper smelting start - up rate was 87.97%, a 0.21% month - on - month decrease. In September, five smelters plan to conduct maintenance, involving a production capacity of 1 million tons. It is expected that the output of electrolytic copper will continue to decline in September. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported that from January to June 2025, the global copper market had a total supply surplus of 251,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 395,000 tons in the same period in 2024 [45]. - **Demand Side** - **Mid - and Downstream Industries**: In August, the output of copper products was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. From January to August, the cumulative output of copper products was 16.598 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. The start - up rates of mid - and downstream processing enterprises rebounded slightly in August. The latest weekly start - up rate of domestic electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 70.73%, a 3.2% month - on - month increase; the weekly start - up rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 23.33%, a 0.66% month - on - month increase; the weekly start - up rate of wire and cable enterprises was 65.84%, a 1.78% month - on - month decrease [52]. - **Terminal Demand**: From January to July, power grid project investment reached 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. Power source project investment reached 428.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 223.2GW. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association raised the expected new installed capacity for this year to 270 - 300GW. In 2025 from January to August, the real estate market continued to bottom out. In August, automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 26.8% year - on - year, accounting for 48.8% of total new vehicle sales. In September, the domestic sales production plan of air conditioners decreased year - on - year, and the online and offline sales of air conditioners and color TVs in the second week of September also declined year - on - year [59]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - **Short - Term Outlook**: With the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's hawkish remarks, the US dollar index rebounded, and copper prices corrected from their highs. With the approaching National Day holiday, risk - aversion sentiment may intensify. It is recommended to take profits on long copper positions and either go empty or hold light positions during the holiday. Enterprises are advised to consider selling hedges at high prices to lock in reasonable profits [6][77]. - **Long - Term Outlook**: Copper is highly regarded in the long term as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation, combined with the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [6][77].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%, with an expectation of an additional 50 basis points reduction by the end of the year, indicating a more dovish stance compared to previous projections [1][7] - Fed Chairman Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, highlighting concerns about a weakening labor market and rising risks to employment [1][7] - The market had largely priced in the 25 basis point cut prior to the announcement, leading to a mixed reaction in the dollar index and U.S. stock markets post-announcement [1][7] Group 2 - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, up from a previous value of 0.5%, indicating a slight improvement in consumer spending [2][8] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 231,000 from 264,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.92 million from 1.93 million, suggesting resilience in the labor market [2][8] - The economic backdrop is characterized by a "stagflation-like" environment, with inflation concerns persisting despite the Fed's actions [1][7] Group 3 - Major global asset classes showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30% [2][28] - In the commodities market, CBOT corn saw the largest increase at 6.46%, while LME three-month lead experienced the largest decline at 0.72% [2][47] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.14%, reflecting a divergence in global long-term interest rates [2][48]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced high-level fluctuations with rapid rotation of hotspots, but the technology sector remains strong, showing a divergence in funding sentiment between cautious main forces and optimistic leverage [1] - The ChiNext index benefited from strong performances in AI and new energy, while the large-cap index weakened in the latter half of the week [1] - Economic data for August showed an overall slowdown, with resilience on the production side and pressure on the demand side [1] Group 2 - The improvement in China-US relations continues, with expectations for further progress in trade and other areas following a conversation between the two leaders [2] - The AI sector remains active during the equity market adjustment period, indicating strong resilience and consensus among funds [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points was anticipated, but the impact is limited as the market had already priced in this reduction [2] Group 3 - In the context of high cutting and low backgrounds, opportunities should be sought within technology growth sectors, with a focus on AI, innovative drugs, and non-ferrous metals [3] - Electric power equipment and solid-state batteries are expected to become new directions for technology growth, while the financial sector may see improvements in valuation and performance as market sentiment stabilizes [3] - Industries such as photovoltaics and aquaculture may benefit from policy focus and positive impacts, suggesting a potential for growth [3]

证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*周报 2025 年 09 月 22 日 2025 年 9 月 15 日-9 月 19 日，A 股市场整体呈现震荡分化态势，主要指数 涨跌互现。市场风格主要表现为成长占优，以创业板为代表的科技成长板块 表现相对较强；权重板块承压，大金融、资源类板块调整压力较大。市场分 歧有所加剧，周内、日内涨跌幅波动加大，部分资金在美联储降息 25bp 靴 子落地后选择获利了结，而另一些资金选择继续布局成长主线。整体来看， 我们认为"存款搬家"仍在途中，市场资金面活跃，各类资金积极入市，市 场强势的科技主线逻辑没有改变，当前应无惧市场波动，慢牛行情仍在进行 之中。 热点一：美联储 9 月降息行情提前反映，降息落地后市场波动有所加大 进入 9 月以来，在美联储公布 9 月议息会议结果前，市场提前反映降息预期， 以人工智能、半导体、固态电池为代表的成长板块加速上涨。9 月 17 日，美 联储议息会议如市场预期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 4.00%-4.25%，这是美联储 2025 年的首次降息。但是，由于此前国内股市 涨幅过快过高，短期内部分资金趁着降息 25bp 利好的兑现而选择了 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices continued their strong performance, with international gold and silver prices reaching new highs. After the Fed's interest rate cut of 25 basis points, some investment funds took profits, causing precious metal prices to briefly pull back before rebounding strongly on Friday [2][5]. - Fed Chair Powell defined the rate cut as a "risk management" measure, mainly to address the weakening labor market, but he indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to initiate large - scale easing. The market's mixed interpretation of his remarks led to some capital outflows and a price correction [2][6]. - Although the Fed's rate cut was finalized, Powell's speech was seen as "releasing uncertainty signals", triggering some investors to take profits. However, recent geopolitical tensions in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Israel - Palestine situation have enhanced gold's safe - haven appeal. The significant increase in gold ETF holdings and central banks' continuous gold purchases support the gold price, while silver's price has reached new highs due to its industrial properties and catch - up effect. Precious metal prices are expected to continue an upward trend [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data - **Gold**: SHFE gold closed at 830.56 yuan/gram, down 3.66 yuan (-0.44%); Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 826.00 yuan/gram, down 2.03 yuan (-0.25%); COMEX gold closed at 3719.40 dollars/ounce, up 38.70 dollars (1.05%) [3]. - **Silver**: SHFE silver closed at 9971 yuan/kilogram, down 64 yuan (-0.64%); Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 9940 yuan/kilogram, down 54 yuan (-0.54%); COMEX silver closed at 43.37 dollars/ounce, up 0.69 dollars (1.60%) [3]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year and the first in 9 months. The FOMC statement recognized the weakening labor market and rising inflation. The dot - plot shows two more cuts this year and one next year. Powell said employment growth has slowed, and inflation is still slightly high [5]. - Powell's "risk management" statement and the mixed market interpretation led to some capital outflows and price corrections. Geopolitical tensions, increased gold ETF holdings, and central bank purchases support the upward trend of precious metal prices [2][6]. 3. Important Data Information - **US Economic Data**: The US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index dropped 21 points to - 8.7; August retail sales rose 0.6% month - on - month; new home starts in August decreased from 1.429 million to 1.307 million; building permits decreased from 1.362 million to 1.312 million; the MBA 30 - year mortgage rate dropped 10 basis points to 6.39%; initial jobless claims fell to 231,000 [8]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%; the Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and reduced the quantitative tightening scale; the Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [9]. 4. Related Data Charts - **ETF Holdings**: As of September 19, 2025, the total gold ETF holdings were 994.56 tons, an increase of 19.76 tons from the previous week; the iShare silver holdings were 15,205.14 tons, an increase of 145.40 tons from the previous week [10]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: For gold futures on September 16, 2025, non - commercial net long positions were 266,410, an increase of 4,670 from the previous week; for silver futures, non - commercial net long positions were 51,538, a decrease of 2,399 from the previous week [11][12].

今年以来全球主要资产价格表现 资料来源：彭博，中银证券 美联储于当地时间9月17日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间从4.25%至 4.5%下调到4.0%至4.25%，降幅为25个基点，此举符合市场普遍预期。此次降息是美联储自去年9月开 启本轮降息周期，并先后于去年9月、11月和12月连续3次降息，以及从今年1月至7月，连续5次按兵不 动后，首次重启降息。 全球投资购金和央行购金量及伦敦金价走势 资料来源：世界黄金协会，伦敦金融交易所，中银证券 □ 由于美元在当前国际货币体系中占据主导地位，美联储一旦重启降息，其利率和汇率的变动将会同时 影响全球资金流动状况 □ 美联储重启降息将从利率和经济基本面角度对美股形成提振作用，但估值偏高仍然是当前投资美股难 以回避的问题。相对而言，非美市场股票估值更具有吸引力。因此，为了规避潜在风险，全球资金在美 元资产和非美资产之间的再平衡趋势有望延续。历史经验也显示，在美元下行阶段，新兴市场的表现通 常优于发达市场，相对收益会显著提升 □ 从中国资产来看，港股有望继续受益于全球流动性转向和内地盈利拐点的双重催化。同时，当前A股 估值仍具有洼地效应，估值修复动 ...