Group 1: Market Overview - The global capital markets are experiencing a "differential expectation repair" trend following a significant reversal in the US-China tariff conflict, with US stocks recording the second-largest single-day net buy in five years at $32 billion on May 13 [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3400-point mark, while the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 4.7% due to better-than-expected earnings reports from JD.com and Tencent [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 GDP forecast for China from 4% to 4.6%, reflecting an optimistic outlook on the economic recovery [1] Group 2: Capital Flow Dynamics - Capital flows in the stock market are showing a structural differentiation, with foreign capital net buying A-shares for four consecutive days post-tariff agreement, primarily directed towards undervalued blue-chip stocks [2] - Despite this, there has been a cumulative net outflow of approximately 32 billion yuan from foreign capital since the beginning of the year, indicating a cautious approach amidst ongoing negotiations [2] Group 3: Domestic Fund Adjustments - Domestic funds are accelerating their portfolio adjustments to capitalize on policy benefits, with public equity funds increasing their positions from 87.98% to 89.21% in Q1 2025 [3] - Private equity funds have slightly reduced their positions, focusing on sectors with higher policy certainty such as consumption, healthcare, and undervalued stocks [3] Group 4: Policy Influence on Market - The central bank is directing funds towards key strategic sectors like robotics and semiconductor equipment through targeted tools, with an estimated 800 billion yuan being allocated [4] - Fiscal policies are also actively stabilizing market expectations, with insurance funds increasing their allocations to undervalued state-owned enterprises [4] Group 5: Currency Market Movements - The international currency market has seen a rare simultaneous strengthening of both the US dollar and the Chinese yuan, with the dollar index rebounding above 101 due to reduced economic pressure from trade tensions [5] - The offshore yuan reached a three-month high, supported by trade surpluses and improved risk sentiment, indicating a potential return of previously outflowed capital [5] Group 6: Bond Market Trends - The bond market is witnessing a shift in risk appetite, with significant capital moving from bonds to equities following the US-China joint statement on May 12 [6] - The 30-year treasury futures fell by 1.31%, and the 10-year treasury yield rose by over 5 basis points, reflecting a withdrawal of funds from interest rate-sensitive assets [6] Group 7: Commodity and Alternative Asset Adjustments - The commodity market is experiencing structural adjustments, with industrial prices rebounding due to improved trade activities and low inventories, while agricultural products see only moderate increases [7] - Alternative assets like Southeast Asian industrial real estate are gaining traction, reflecting a shift towards stable returns amidst policy uncertainties [7] Group 8: Cross-Border Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in cross-border direct investment towards tangible sectors, with China reducing the negative list for free trade zones and enhancing cross-border RMB settlement policies [8] - The demand for RMB assets is increasing, with significant net inflows into the stock market and rising direct investments in advanced manufacturing and green energy sectors [8]

上海天然橡胶期货合约在大阪上市（5月26日，大阪市） 这一新机制可满足橡胶需求企业对在中国持有的天然橡胶库存价格波动的对冲需求。另一个值得 关注的是，是此次上市的上海天然橡胶期货指数产品与现有天然橡胶期货之间的套利交易成为可 能…… 另一个值得关注的是，是此次上市的上海天然橡胶期货指数产品与现有天然橡胶期货之间的套利 交易（Arbitrage）成为可能。若市场参与者积极利用两者之间的价格差进行套利操作，不仅有望 获取价差利润，也有望带动大阪现有天然橡胶期货的交易量增长。新加坡知名橡胶贸易公司R1 International的Ho Wai Leong表示欢迎："全球性的贸易公司将因此获得更多套利交易的机会"。 日本早在1952年就成为全球最早推出天然橡胶期货的国家。然而，市场普遍认为，大阪交易所的 天然橡胶期货交易量近年来呈缩减趋势，其作为国际主要价格指标的地位正在逐步下降。天然橡 胶的主要产地集中在亚洲，相关交易活动也以亚洲为中心。目前，除大阪交易所和上海期货交易 所外，新加坡交易所（SGX）等地也推出了天然橡胶期货产品。由于这些交易所与东南亚产地更 为接近，近年来在全球橡胶市场上的存在感日益增强，交易环境也 ...

5月20日，新发行的20年期日本国债拍卖结果惨淡，投标倍数跌至2.5倍，达到2012年以来最低水平，其 平均价格与最低接受价格之间的差距（尾差）飙升至1.14，反映出市场需求严重低迷。受此影响，20年 期日本国债收益率上升到2000年以来最高水平，30年、40年期国债收益率也出现飙升。5月23日，日本 最大的寿险公司——日本生命保险（Nippon Life）宣布，截至今年3月底，它持有的日本国债已经出现 巨额账面浮亏，金额高达3.6万亿日元（约合250亿美元），比去年同期暴增两倍。 日本国债遇冷成因复杂，反映出一些结构性问题和长期深层次矛盾。 首先，日本央行自2024年起逐步缩减量化宽松，每月购债规模从5.7万亿日元降至5万亿日元，计划至 2026年降至2.9万亿日元。这一缩表进程直接削弱了市场对国债的流动性支撑，而传统买家如寿险公司 却未填补缺口，导致供需失衡加剧。 其次，日本首相石破茂近期公开承认"日本财政状况比希腊更糟"。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）最新 数据，日本的公共债务已达国内生产总值（GDP）的234.9%，大大超过希腊在欧债危机期间最高的比 重。日本预计将用于偿还债务利息的支出占到年度预算的 ...

Core Insights - The article predicts the adjustment list for major market index constituents as of June 2025, utilizing refined financial loss identification rules and a review mechanism for securities [1][2] - It highlights significant Alpha return characteristics in the sample combinations of stocks added or removed during index adjustments, particularly through liquidity shock factor grouping [1][2] Market Index ETF Scale - As of April 2025, the scale of various ETFs such as SSE 50, STAR 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index are 170.6 billion, 166.4 billion, 1077.3 billion, 144.1 billion, 140.9 billion, and 115.6 billion respectively [1] - The overall scale of these index ETFs has increased nearly fourfold compared to the end of 2021, indicating a growing trend towards index-based investment [1] Index Adjustment Rules and Historical Testing - The article outlines that the CSI and National Index series are adjusted twice a year, with a high prediction accuracy and coverage rate of around 90% for the CSI 300 index adjustments [2] - It emphasizes the significant Alpha return characteristics observed in the sample combinations during the prediction and announcement periods of index adjustments [2] Arbitrage Strategy Research - Since the second half of 2019, single adjustment absolute returns have been 18.36%, with long-short returns at 23.89% and excess returns at 15.10% [2] - Annual adjustment absolute returns reached 40.09%, with long-short returns at 50.84% and excess returns at 33.47% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index futures: ☆☆☆ [1] - Treasury bond futures: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the week ending May 23, index futures declined slightly, with IH2506 and IF2506 down 0.01%, IC2506 down 0.86%, and IM2506 down 1.29%. The market showed strong risk - aversion sentiment, with a significant contraction in the trading volume of the entire A - share market and relatively large declines in small - cap broad - based indices [1]. - From the perspective of high - frequency macro - fundamental factor scores, for index futures, the inflation indicator scored 6 points, the liquidity indicator 2 points, the valuation indicator 10 points, and the market sentiment indicator 7 points. For bond futures, the inflation indicator scored 7 points, the liquidity indicator 8 points, and the market sentiment indicator 8 points. In terms of the term structure, the basis discounts of each contract continued to be at historical lows [1]. - The net value of the financial derivatives quantitative CTA strategy increased by 0.45% last week, mainly from holding long positions in T on Monday and Tuesday. In the long - term, although industrial and production data slightly exceeded expectations, investment and real estate remained weak, with the decline of IC and IM exceeding that of IF. In the short - term, the impact of the exchange rate decreased slightly, the financing scale declined, and market speculation decreased. The position volume indicated an adjustment in risk preference, with IC and IM dropping below IF and IH, and IM having a larger decline. The comprehensive signal was below the neutral level. For bond futures, last week, the position volume factor showed some marginal improvement due to the stock - bond rotation but then gradually declined as institutions took profits. Although the short - term capital market was relatively loose, the comprehensive signal showed a neutral oscillation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - fundamental Medium - and High - frequency Factor Scores - **Economic Momentum**: Among various indicators, the blast furnace开工率 (163 - company national average) and the开工率 of PTA in China both decreased by 2.75%. The开工率 of the Shandong local refinery's atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit increased by 0.36%. The开工率 of automobile all - steel tires decreased by 0.52%, and the开工率 of downstream looms for polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased by 13.41%. The index futures scored 6 points, and the bond futures scored 0 points [2]. - **Inflation Indicators**: Most inflation - related indicators showed price declines, such as the vegetable basket product wholesale price 200 index down 0.05%, the coking coal index down 0.09%, etc. Only the CIF price of liquefied natural gas in China increased by 1.58%. The index futures scored 6 points, and the bond futures scored 7 points [3]. - **Liquidity**: DR007 and DR001 decreased by 3.14% and 4.05% respectively, while GC001 and GC007 increased by 6.98% and 4.27% respectively. The index futures scored 2 points [4]. - **Index Valuation**: The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM), price - to - sales ratio (TTM), and other valuation indicators all decreased slightly. The index futures scored 9 points [5]. - **Market Sentiment - Index Futures**: The margin trading balance decreased by 0.31%, and the short - selling balance increased by 3.50%. The index futures scored 7 points [6]. - **Market Sentiment - Bond Futures**: The 10 - year yield of China Development Bank bonds decreased by 0.39%, and the VIX index increased by 29.29%. The bond futures scored 8 points [7]. 3.2 Strategy Introduction - The product pool includes stock index futures and treasury bond futures. The short - term model focuses on market style, external factors, and capital market high - frequency financial data, while the long - term model focuses on market expectations and low - frequency macro - economic data. The position volume is synthesized based on institutional long and short positions [17]. - The comprehensive signal strength is weighted by the signals of three independent models (0 - 1). Contracts with the top two comprehensive signal strengths greater than or equal to 0.6 are considered for long positions, and those with the bottom two less than or equal to 0.4 are considered for short positions. Position volume signals are shielded 7 days before contract expiration. An intraday decline of more than 1% is set as the stop - loss point, and funds are equally weighted. Signals in the same direction for two consecutive trading days are shielded [18][19]. 3.3 Last Week's Situation - From May 19 to May 23, the positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM were all 0, while the position of T was 1 on May 19 and 20 and 0 for the rest of the days, and the position of TF was 0 throughout the week [20]. 3.4 Recent Income Performance - The previous day's return was 0%, the return for the past week was 0.45%, the return for the past month was 0.78%, the return for the past three months was 1.45%, the return for the past six months was 5.26%, the return for the past year was 8.51%, and the return for the past three years was 23.99%. The maximum drawdown for the past week was 0%, for the past month was 0.05%, for the past three months was 0.07%, for the past six months was 0.52%, for the past year was 0.59%, and for the past three years was 3.27% [22]. 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Cross - Variety Arbitrage Strategy - The cross - variety arbitrage strategy is based on the signal resonance of the fundamental three - factor model and the trend regression model. The fundamental factor uses the instantaneous forward - rate function proposed by Nelson and Siegel, which decomposes the interest - rate term structure into level, slope, and curvature. The signals are divided into three types: '1' (large spread may decrease), '0' (uncertain spread trend or oscillation), and '-1' (large spread may increase). The trend regression model is used to filter signals, and trading occurs when there is resonance. In actual operation, the 10 - 5Y spread is adjusted with a duration - neutral ratio of 1:1.8 [23]. - For the TF and T main contracts from May 19 to May 23, the N - S model and trend regression model signals mostly showed '0', except that the N - S model signal was '1' on May 21 and 22 [26].

Core Viewpoint - Haiguang Information plans to conduct a stock swap merger with Zhongke Shuguang, marking the first merger under the new restructuring regulations. The merger aims to strengthen their core businesses and capitalize on opportunities in the information technology industry [1][2]. Company Overview - Haiguang Information is a significant player in computing chips, while Zhongke Shuguang is a leading server enterprise. Their main businesses are closely linked within the industry chain [1]. - Zhongke Shuguang is the largest shareholder of Haiguang Information, holding approximately 28% of its shares, indicating a pre-existing close relationship between the two companies [1]. Merger Details - The merger will involve Haiguang Information issuing A-shares to all A-share shareholders of Zhongke Shuguang, along with raising supporting funds. Trading for both companies' stocks has been suspended since May 26, with an expected suspension period of no more than 10 trading days [1]. - This merger is the first to occur following the revision of the "Management Measures for Major Asset Restructuring of Listed Companies" on May 16, which supports the integration of leading enterprises in the industry [1]. Market Impact - If the transaction is completed, Zhongke Shuguang will be delisted. Such mergers typically lead to stock price fluctuations, potentially creating arbitrage opportunities for funds holding related stocks [2]. - According to the first-quarter holdings data, two funds managed by Jiashi have significant positions in both Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang, nearing the 10% limit for individual stocks [2]. Fund Performance - Jiashi's actively managed fund, established on November 29, 2022, has a scale of 279 million yuan and reported a one-year return of 38.55% as of May 23, 2025. The fund holds 426,621 shares of Zhongke Shuguang and 189,689 shares of Haiguang Information, representing a combined holding of 22.54% of its net asset value [3][4]. - Another fund, Jiashi Information Industry Fund, has a total scale of 1.155 billion yuan and reported a one-year return of 20.97%. As of May 23, 2025, it holds 797,565 shares of Haiguang Information and 1,645,292 shares of Zhongke Shuguang, totaling 19.21% of its net asset value [4][5]. Potential Gains - As of May 23, Haiguang Information's stock price was 136.13 yuan, with a market capitalization of 316.41 billion yuan, while Zhongke Shuguang's stock price was 61.9 yuan, with a market capitalization of 90.57 billion yuan. If both stocks rise by 20% post-resumption, the combined market value of the funds' holdings could increase significantly [6].

一般情况下，日本银行会对债市进行干预，不过主要聚焦在十年期国债。日本银行对超长期债市的干预 仅仅是象征性的。从去年开始，日本央行便致力于货币环境正常化，但是庞大的套利交易盘成为政策执 行的巨大掣肘。如今市场主动调整，正中央行下怀，所以日本银行乐得作壁上观，让市场通过收益率的 变化自己去解决供需错配问题。 日本超长债市上，借贷杠杆不是特别高，衍生产品也不多。所以价格动荡会导致投资的账面亏损，但未 必触发系统性风险。尤其日本央行在十年期国债市场还有相当的影响力，笔者认为这次市场突变不会对 日本金融体系构成很大的系统性风险，但可能对全球资金结构和流向带来重大变数。 日本是世界上最大的储蓄国，但由于长期的超低利率环境，日资多投向海外资产，对日本经济和日元资 产帮助有限。从政策制定者的角度，当然希望引导日资回流，改善本国的资金流动性。现在日本本币的 长期收益率明显上涨，而美债收益率扣除汇率对冲成本后已经不再有吸引力。日本在海外拥有超过1000 万亿日元的净资产，这笔资金部分回流对全球金融市场都可能是一个冲击。 这次市场突变不会对日本金融体系构成很大的系统性风险，但可能对全球资金结构和流向带来重大变 数。 资金将焦点从货 ...

有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/05/26 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 78030 9540 8.18 三月 77100 9509 8.20 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.21 -442.58 现货出口 -242.41 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22710 2671 8.50 三月 22085 2693 6.24 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.71 -559.59 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 20370 2455 8.30 三月 20090 2462 8.20 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.67 -907.17 镍：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 124400 15327 8.12 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.26 -3470.81 铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/05/26 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 16650 1967 8.47 三月 16860 1985 11.26 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.90 -850. ...

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年5月25日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：价格承压，相较于A00价差继续收敛 强弱分析：偏弱，价格区间：20000-20500元/吨 ADC12匡算亏损加剧 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 01-02 01-13 01-24 02-05 02-16 02-27 03-10 03-21 04-01 04-13 04-24 05-08 05-19 05-30 06-10 06-21 07-02 07-13 07-24 08-04 08-15 08-26 09-06 09-18 09-29 10-17 10-28 11-08 11-19 11-30 12-11 12-22 元/吨 ADC12利润 2022 2023 2024 2025 ADC12-A0 ...

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.57% for the week, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum [1] - The large-cap index remains in a sideways trend, with frequent occurrences of broad declines in individual stocks, suggesting a cautious approach to stock trading [3][5] - Large institutional investors, including state-owned funds and insurance companies, are increasing their positions, indicating a potential accumulation phase rather than distribution [5][7] Group 2 - The current market environment shows limited downside for the index, with institutional support likely to prevent significant declines, especially in the context of global market volatility [7] - The banking sector has seen some upward movement, while other sectors like liquor, insurance, and telecommunications remain stagnant, suggesting potential for future rebounds [7] - A focus on financial strength and patience is emphasized as key to navigating the market, with a recommendation for investors to consider ETF strategies for simpler trading [8][9]