Group 1 - The recent 20-year U.S. Treasury bond auction was disappointing, with a high bid rate of 5.047%, marking the second instance in history where the winning yield exceeded 5% and the largest tail risk in six months [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio fell from an average of 2.57 to 2.46, indicating reduced demand for U.S. debt amid high fiscal uncertainty and low policy credibility [1] - Concerns over the U.S. high debt levels and the potential expansion of the deficit due to the proposed "Beautiful America Act" are seen as fundamental reasons for the weak auction results and a new wave of selling U.S. dollar assets [1] Group 2 - As of the end of 2024, the total outstanding debt of the U.S. federal government reached $36.2 trillion, with foreign investors holding slightly over $9 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities [3] - The allocation of U.S. debt to foreign investors, including central banks, has dropped to the lowest level since 2019, at only 58.88% during the latest 30-year bond auction, continuing a trend of decline since October of the previous year [3] - Japan and the UK, both facing turmoil in their bond markets, are the top two foreign holders of U.S. debt, with Japan increasing its holdings by $4.9 billion in March 2025, while China reduced its holdings by $18.9 billion, falling to the third-largest holder [3] Group 3 - China has been gradually selling off U.S. Treasury bonds, which is viewed as a warning to the U.S., and has also been increasing its gold reserves, reaching 7.377 million ounces by the end of April 2025 [6] - The increase in gold reserves reflects China's trend towards diversifying its foreign exchange reserves, while its significant U.S. debt holdings are a result of decades of trade surpluses with the U.S. [6] - Japan's Prime Minister expressed a strong desire for the U.S. to reassess various tariff measures, particularly on automobiles, which are crucial for Japan's economy [6][9]

市场主流观点汇总 2025/5/27 报告说明 关 迪 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 | | | 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/5/23 | | | 2025/5/19 至 | 2025/5/23 | | | 黄金 | 780.10 | 黄金 | | | 3.76% | | | 白银 | 8263.00 | 白银 | | | 2.00% | | | 豆粕 | 2952.00 | 豆粕 | | | 1.83% | | | 棕榈油 | 8006 ...

Core Insights - The US market resumed trading after the Memorial Day weekend, with both US Treasury bonds and stock index futures rising [1] - Japanese government is considering actions to stabilize bond yields after record highs, which supported bond prices [1] - President Trump postponed the implementation of a 50% tariff on the EU, providing support for US stock index futures [1] Treasury Market - The US Treasury bull market flattened, with long-end yields generally declining, with a drop of up to 6.5 basis points [1] - The 2s10s and 5s30s yield spreads tightened by 3.5 basis points and 3 basis points respectively [1] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell by approximately 5 basis points to 4.46%, nearing the day's low [1] Stock Market - The S&P 500 index futures rose by 1.4% [1] - The Euro Stoxx 50 index increased by 0.5% in early London trading [1] - Strong performance was noted in the information technology and industrial sectors [1]

过去几年，美债利率曲线平坦甚至倒挂，银行净息差低迷。TD Cowen报告显示，截至去年第四季度，美国大银行净息差中位数为2.81%，低于历 史平均的3.2%。如今，随着利率回归正常、收益率曲线正向倾斜，净息差有望改善。同时，长期利率上升使银行新购债券收益更高，老债券到期 后资金可投入高利率新债，持续提高利息收入，增加资本缓冲。若特朗普政府放松银行资本金监管要求，银行可用资金将更宽松，抗压能力更 强。 不过，长期利率上涨对银行存在潜在风险。银行过去低利率买入的债券价格下跌，账面浮亏增加。若银行急需现金兑付储户提款，只能亏本卖 债，2023年硅谷银行便是前车之鉴，其因持有大量低利率长期债券，美联储加息致债券价值暴跌，储户集中取款时低价卖债引发亏损和流动性枯 竭，最终倒闭。 今年年初，美国银行股因市场赌经济软着陆、放贷更旺而一度跑赢大盘，但3月、4月因关税担忧升温、衰退风险升高而跑输。截至目前，KBW纳 斯达克银行指数与标普500指数年内涨幅几乎持平，市场仍在犹豫。分析指出，若利率曲线继续温和变陡，净息差回升逻辑成立，银行板块可能迎 来新一轮上涨行情。 对银行股而言，若经济增长，银行可增加贷款发放，赚取更多利息；若 ...

嗯，很多人不理解。 到底什么是稳定币？ 和我们普通人有什么关系？ 简单说一下， 稳定币是一种数字货币。 上周有个大消息，是被忽视的。 5月19号，美国参议院以66票赞成32票反对通过了一项法案，这个法案的全称是《美国稳定币 创新 引导和建立法案》。 它是由私人机构发行的，比如你用1美元买了1个稳定币，那机构就会收到1美元，对应发行1个稳定 币，就把实物美元变成了虚拟美元。 任何货币，都会有 锚定物的。 稳定币的锚定物，就是美元。 而机构如果收到了大量的美元，就会去买美债。 就和我们各个国家，和美国进行贸易之后，收到大量美元，也会去买美债。 这个时候，你发现了吧。 稳定币，为什么会卡在5月份的时候突然推出。 这背后， 大概就是美国为了应对6月美债危机的一个大杀招。 美国gov准备绕开美联储去发行美债了。 同时还有一个事情，那就是5月23日，我们HK光速通过了稳定币条例草案。 紧随其后，这就不算是偶然了。 这里补充一下时间线的知识点。 6月份漂亮是有6.5万亿的美债要到期，但目前的美债收益率创下了新高。 10年期超过了4.5%，30年期超过5%。 漂亮肯定不想顶着高息发债，可5月15日美联储发声了，不会选择货币债 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's debt and tariff policies are pushing the country towards a financial crisis, with increasing inflation and loss of investor confidence in debt management [1][2]. Group 1: Debt and Economic Policies - The U.S. government is promoting a massive tax cut bill, which is seen as disastrous and likely to increase inflation [1]. - Investors are losing confidence in the U.S. government's ability to manage its debt, leading to concerns about the potential for a debt sell-off [1][2]. - Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising debt and interest expenditures [1]. Group 2: Impact on Financial Markets - The U.S. Treasury had to sell 20-year bonds at high interest rates, with 10-year and 30-year bond yields reaching levels not seen since before the 2007 financial crisis [1]. - By the end of 2026, the U.S. will need to restructure $9 trillion in debt, replacing low-interest old debt with high-interest new debt, which is becoming increasingly unattractive to investors [1]. Group 3: Consequences of Debt Management - A potential sell-off of U.S. Treasuries could lead to significant wealth evaporation, particularly affecting U.S. savers [2]. - Central banks may shift reserves from U.S. Treasuries to gold, resulting in a substantial increase in gold prices [2]. - Continued escalation of trade wars and unreliability of the U.S. could lead to a complete loss of confidence in the dollar, signaling a systemic collapse [2].

明年一月份，特朗普一上任便会立刻着手处理美国的国债问题，毕竟那高达36万亿的美债在他看来犹如一个隐患，亟需清除。对于这位再次执掌白宫的总统 而言，这是一个必须直面的棘手问题。 其实，特朗普早已心急如焚，甚至在拜登还未来得及从白宫搬走之际，他的团队便已经宣布了一项重大的货币政策，连美联储都未能及时作出反应。特朗普 率先揭晓了他打响货币战的重要武器——比特币。 目前，比特币的价格已经飙升至每个10万美元，要是未来这一数字持续走高，它或许真的会成为特朗普解决36万亿美债的新工具。这样看来，特朗普确实不 愧是名副其实的商人，但鲜有人知的是，他在第一次任期时曾明确表示反对虚拟货币。 然而，经过数年磨砺，特朗普似乎从一个单纯的商人逐步转变为一位成熟的政客。在竞选期间，他多次为比特币站台，可见这一想法早已成为他战略规划的 一部分。 当面对沉重债务时，降低损失的唯一途径通常是赖账。没错，特朗普的目的正是利用比特币来当作美元的抵债工具。不过，有人会提出疑问，既然比特币身 价如此高，全球只要有资本愿意接手，抵债似乎也没有问题。 可事情没有那么简单。比特币缺乏信用背书，并不像黄金那样拥有公允的价值属性，更与真正的美元不尽相同。如果 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions will be a critical variable for market dynamics, as strong demand could lower yields and support the dollar, while weak demand may raise concerns about U.S. debt and weaken the dollar [1] Auction Details - The U.S. is scheduled to auction $69 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, $70 billion in five-year notes on Wednesday, and $44 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday [1] - Strong demand in these auctions could alleviate market anxiety, potentially leading to a decline in Treasury yields and an increase in the dollar's value [1] Market Implications - If demand is weak, particularly from foreign institutions, it could reignite concerns regarding U.S. debt issues, resulting in rising yields and a weakening dollar [1]

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 绍翔 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 当作为曾经全球三大资产泡沫之一的日债，都出现了"销售"问题，这本身就是对全球债市变局的一种警示。 本周，20年期日债和美债 的"灾难性"拍卖，叠加美国众议院比较顺利地通过减税与支出法案，导致全球债市的动荡，日本和美国债市首当其冲。尽管有偶发因素， 但背后凸显的矛盾却越发明显，全球变局下债券逃不开的供需错配问题，而所有这些问题的交汇焦点就在美债（以及背后的美元）：无论 是4月中下旬贸易摩擦下的外资抛售"恐慌"，还是5月初新台币的暴涨背后对于亚洲资金减配美元资产的担忧。 我们在之前的报告里反复强调 美债问题会是特朗普2.0最大的"背刺"， 当前这个观点没变，在本篇报告中，我们会进一步结合特朗普的减 税和关税主线，给出美债等资产风险的分析框架。 首先说说对于全球变局的看法，对于广义的债务来说，有供给和需求两个角度： 贸易和地缘格局的重构本来应该意味着美国财政的相对紧缩、其他经济体财政更加积极，进而达成全球债务 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要： 上周整体缺乏宏观数据的显著指引，市场情绪表现也较为谨慎。不过周中特朗普一度重新强调对欧盟的关税税率应该有 5 0 %，此番 言论使得市场陷入短期的r is k o ff情绪之中，黄金显著反弹，铜价回落的幅度并不深。随后市场可能更加担忧对于铜增加2 5 %的关税 税率，导致COMEX铜价显著上涨，地区之间的价差再次扩大。 1、上周金铜显 著走强 上周海外市场不确定性较前期再次增强，主要因美债信用危机引发市场担忧，同时特朗普再度提及关税问题，威胁对欧盟商 品直接征收 5 0% 关税引发欧盟强烈反对，市场避险情绪由此回升，贵金属价格随之反弹。中长期来说黄金的上行趋势并未 改变，海外不确定性持续叠加美元的信用逻辑依然支撑金价走强，关注海外潜在流动性风险。 基本金属市场复盘 （一）COMEX/沪铜市场观察 上周 COMEX铜价震荡偏强，上周铜价整体仍然缺乏显著驱动，周内大部分时间横盘震荡为主，缺乏宏观数据的显著指引， 市场情绪表现也较为谨慎。周中特朗普一度重新强调对欧盟的关税税率应该有50%，此番言论使得市场陷入短期的risk off情 绪之中 ...