Macro Economic Policy - The recent important national meeting has outlined the economic work priorities and goals for the near future, emphasizing the continuation of proactive fiscal policies and increased investment in infrastructure, which will inject strong momentum into the financial market [1] - The advancement of infrastructure projects is expected to boost related industries such as steel, cement, and construction machinery, leading to more orders and improved performance, thereby attracting capital inflow into related stocks and driving up their prices [1] - Increased infrastructure investment will also stimulate social financing demand, expanding the credit business of banks and improving their profit expectations, which will enhance the attractiveness of bank stocks in the capital market [1] Monetary Policy - The meeting has signaled a flexible and moderate approach to monetary policy, emphasizing the maintenance of reasonable liquidity, which will help stabilize market expectations [2] - A more abundant liquidity environment is likely to lead to increased market funding supply, resulting in rising bond prices and declining yields, thus lowering the cost of corporate bond issuance and easing financing difficulties [2] - The low interest rate environment will encourage investors to shift funds from low-yield products like money market funds to the bond market, further stimulating market activity [2] Industrial Policy - The meeting's support measures for emerging industries and key sectors are expected to reshape investment hotspots in the financial market, particularly in areas like new energy, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors [4] - Policies such as tax incentives and fiscal subsidies will attract significant capital into these sectors, leading to increased investor interest and potential stock price surges in related concept stocks [4] - Venture capital and private equity firms are likely to increase investments in startups within emerging industries, providing necessary funding for innovation and development, thus fostering a virtuous cycle between capital markets and the real economy [4] Capital Market Reform - The meeting's deployment of capital market reform will enhance the vitality and competitiveness of the financial market, with proposed measures to improve the registration system, strengthen investor protection, and enhance the quality of listed companies [4] - These reforms are expected to attract more long-term capital into the market and optimize the investor structure, while also boosting foreign confidence in China's capital market, potentially increasing the inflow of northbound funds and enhancing market valuation [4]

美国财长贝森特：可能会宣布一些关于印度的消息。 ...

金十数据4月29日讯，马克·卡尼领导的自由党赢得了加拿大大选，但似乎失去了多数席位。凯投宏观经 济学家Stephen Brown认为，自由党将继续执政，并实施温和的刺激政策。对他来说，选举结果不会改 变他的预期，即加拿大的GDP增长将大幅放缓，但几乎可以避免衰退。不过，这位经济学家认为，卡尼 可能不得不向少数党新民主党或魁人政团做出让步，以实施他的计划，这可能意味着更宽松的财政政 策。这可能会让该经济学家对加拿大央行今年将再降息三次的看法产生怀疑，这可能会阻止加元和债券 收益率像预期的那样大幅下跌。 凯投宏观：仍认为加拿大的GDP增长将大幅放缓 ...

利率专题 5 月，债市关键词 2025 年 04 月 29 日 展望 5 月，基本面如何演绎？政策发力推进下，财政与货币如何配合？央行 态度和资金面怎么看？债市能否迎来破局？本文聚焦于此。 ➢ 4 月利率向下，曲线演绎牛平 从 4 月债市表现来看：上旬在"超预期对等关税"和"对应反制关税"背景 下，货币宽松预期进一步增强，催化利率快速下行，10 年国债收益率下至 1.63%， 30 年国债收益率下至 1.83%；进入中下旬，中美关税政策边际缓和，财政供给 放量预期和短期政策保持定力，多空交织下债市方向尚不明朗，维持窄幅波动。 结合高频数据来观察：4 月 EPMI 指数大幅回落 10.2 个百分点至 49.4%；4 月汽车全钢胎开工率和半钢胎开工率连续多周出现回落；4 月 SCFI 指数、BDI 指 数呈现下滑态势，表现弱于季节性水平，一定程度指向出口边际转弱。 （2）政府债供给压力如何？随着大行注资特别国债和超长期特别国债启动 发行，以及新增专项债供给可能提速，预估二季度政府债供给压力仍不小，5-6 月或是发行高峰，供给压力的抬升可能加大市场扰动，而当中的关键又在于，央 行会如何对冲操作以配合财政发力？ （3 ...

沃什指出并警告美联储政治化的危险是正确的。普遍报道称，当特朗普在第一任期选择美联储主席时， 沃什也曾被考虑，也许他会在特朗普的第二任期中再次被考虑。 这倒不是说是因为他的演讲会让他受世界各国央行和媒体精英的欢迎，但沃什正在给美联储官员和其他 央行行长提供好的建议——至少如果他们想重新获得公众失去的信任，并避免对其货币政策独立性发起 严重挑战。 沃什补充道，美联储还漫步到资产配置和有争议的政治问题。住房危机结束很久之后，美联储购买抵押 贷款支持证券补贴了房地产市场。2021年，随着民主党掌控国会和白宫，美联储迎合了关于气候变化的 进步政治优先事项，甚至似乎针对特定人口群体的失业率。 他总结道，所有这些本质上都是保留给政府的政治问题。美联储越是将此类优先事项作为货币或监管政 策的目标，就越会进入政治纷争，并招致政界人士质疑其独立性。鲍威尔近年来已从这些努力中退步， 但损害已经造成。 美国总统特朗普对美联储主席鲍威尔的批评主导着关于美联储的评论，但在当前经济政策不确定性的时 期，一场更重要、更迫切需要的辩论正在进行。那就是：美联储的适当角色是什么？它是否以损害其独 立性的方式超越了其职权范围？这是市场认为的"影子美 ...

| 7 2 8 11 11 1 贵金属日评20250429: 美国财政部二季度借款大超预期但扣除债务上限影响后环比减少 | | --- | | 交易日期 2025-04-28 2025-04-25 2025-04-22 较昨日变化 较上周变化 | | 收盘价 780. 04 787.20 831. 42 -7.16 -51.38 | | 成交重 543425.00 662672. 00 872580.00 -119, 247. 00 -329, 155. 00 期货活跃台约 | | 持仓量 -14.739.00 151572. 00 166311.00 204671.00 -53, 099. 00 | | 库存(千克) 15648.00 15648.00 15678.00 0. 00 -30.00 上海黄金 | | 收盘价 778.22 784. 93 826. 67 -6. 71 -48. 45 (元/克) 现货沪金T+D 成交重 68346.00 65020.00 124468.00 3, 326. 00 -56, 122. 00 | | 持仓量 217932. 00 225194.00 225312. ...

Morning session notice | | | 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘铁矿主力 2509 合约收于 7110，上涨 0.57%。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1、中共中央政治局 4 月 25 日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议 | | | | 指出，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发 | | | | 展格局，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩 | | | | 大高水平对外开放，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定 | | | | 性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观 | | | | 政策，用好用足更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债 | | | | 券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。兜牢基层"三保"底线。适时降准降息，保持流 | | 黑色建材 铁矿 | 震荡 | 动性充裕，加力支持实体经济。创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性金 | | | | 融工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等。强化政策取向一致性 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 14 请务必阅读文末免责条款 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-04-29 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250331 | 2025/03 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.50 | 50.20 | 50.80 | | 20250331 | 2025/03 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.80 | 50.40 | 53.00 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250401 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 51.20 | 50.80 | 51.10 | | 20250403 | 2025/03 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 51.90 | 51.40 ...

Group 1 - The core event discussed is the stock market crash on October 24, 1929, known as "Black Thursday," which led to a significant economic downturn in the United States [1] - The stock index dropped from a peak of 363 to an average decline of 40%, resulting in massive financial losses for many Americans [1] - The Great Depression caused severe social issues, including a high dropout rate among students and a significant increase in unemployment, with 8.3 million unemployed in the U.S. and 5 to 7 million in the U.K. [1] Group 2 - President Roosevelt's initial response to the Great Depression involved addressing the banking crisis by ensuring banks could reopen and providing liquidity through the Federal Reserve [3] - Roosevelt abandoned the gold standard, which allowed the Federal Reserve to print more money without the constraint of gold reserves, thus injecting liquidity into the banking system [3][4] - Following the abandonment of the gold standard, public confidence returned, leading to a significant deposit of $1 billion into banks, which helped stabilize the financial system [4] Group 3 - Roosevelt's government spending initiatives aimed to stimulate the economy by providing wages to workers, which in turn increased consumer spending and economic activity [6] - The analogy of digging and filling holes illustrates how government spending can create jobs and stimulate demand across various sectors [6] - Some analysts argue that World War II played a crucial role in fully reviving the U.S. economy by creating demand for military supplies and industrial production [7]

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/4/28 贵金属日度观点 美联储褐皮书多次提及关税风险压制市场情绪，叠加美元指数反弹削弱黄金吸引力，但中长期逻辑未改，全球央行购金需求及地缘政治不确定性仍为金价提供支撑。 SHFE金银期货主连价格. source： Wind 元/克 SHFE黄金 SHFE白银(右轴) 元/千克 24/04 24/08 24/12 500 600 700 800 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 COMEX黄金与金银比. source： wind 2000 2500 3000 3500 美元/盎司 COMEX黄金价格 COMEX金银比价(右轴) 24/03 24/06 24/09 24/12 25/03 70 80 90 100 source： wind 元/克 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开 ...