Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent surge in gold prices is driven by geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and a weakening US dollar, making gold an attractive safe-haven asset [3][4][5] - Trump's decision to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% has raised concerns about potential job losses and supply chain disruptions, particularly affecting Canada and the EU, which are major suppliers [3] - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated, with significant military actions from both sides, contributing to market uncertainty and further driving investors towards gold [3][4] Group 2 - The US dollar index has recently fallen below 99, which typically boosts gold prices as they have an inverse relationship [3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold purchases, with last month's net buying reaching a new high, providing strong support for gold prices [3] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to increasing global economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks, reinforcing its role as a hedge against inflation and market volatility [4][5]

美国是韩国钢铁主要出口市场之一。根据韩国贸易协会的数据，2024年韩国钢铁出口总额中，出口美国的钢铁产品占比达13.1%。 据财联社，高盛指出，若贸易摩擦升级至全面对抗，预计2025年末金价或突破4200美元。 来源：21财经客户端、央视新闻、Wind、财联社 据央视新闻报道， 韩国产业通商资源部6月2日召集钢铝产业代表召开紧急会议，商讨应对美国钢铝关税加倍。 浦项制铁、现代制铁、KG钢铁、韩国有色金属协会、诺贝丽斯韩国公司、乐天铝业等业界代表参加会议。会议重点讨论了美国上调钢铝关税 对韩国相关行业的影响及后续应对方案。 韩国产业通商资源部表示，将密切关注美国关税措施的实施动向，在现行对美磋商框架内积极应对，力争使韩国国内产业所受影响最小化。 美国自3月12日起对所有进口钢铁和铝征收25%关税。美国总统特朗普5月30日说，6月4日起将把钢铝关税提高至50%。 6月2日午后，现货黄金日内涨超2%，现报3356美元/盎司，年初至今涨幅超27%。 | | 贵金属 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金 ...

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI is 50.3, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April[2] - Overall PMI data shows improvement, indicating reduced economic pressure compared to April[3] Group 2: Production and Demand Insights - Production index rose to 50.7, above the neutral line, while demand recovery was less pronounced[4] - New orders increased by 0.6 percentage points to 49.8, and new export orders rose by 2.8 percentage points to 47.5[4] - The "production-demand gap" expanded by 0.3 percentage points to 0.9 percentage points[4] Group 3: Inventory and Price Trends - Raw material inventory increased by 0.4 percentage points to 47.4, while finished goods inventory decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 46.5[5] - Price indicators have declined for three consecutive months, with purchasing prices down 0.1 percentage points to 46.9[5] - Factory gate prices also fell by 0.1 percentage points to 44.7, indicating ongoing profit pressure for enterprises[5] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - Non-manufacturing PMI slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.3, underperforming compared to historical averages[10] - Consumer services sector showed resilience, increasing by 2.3 percentage points to 51.6, while production services declined[11] - Construction PMI fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51.0, with civil engineering improving but housing construction declining[10]

（3）经济数据与政策：美国4月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数同比增长2.1%，低于预期的2.2%，这使得交易员继续押注美联储将在9月下调短期借贷成 本，利率期货显示美联储9月降息概率升至87%。美联储的货币政策预期对黄金影响重大，降息预期升温通常会降低持有黄金的机会成本，从而利多黄金。 此外，美国联邦上诉法院上周四暂时恢复特朗普总统最全面的关税政策，此前美国贸易法院曾裁定其越权并阻止征收关税，关税政策的不确定性也对市场产 生了一定影响。 2、本周重点关注 （1）重要数据：本周将公布一系列重要经济数据，包括美国 5 月 ISM 制造业 PMI、4 月 JOLTs 职位空缺、5 月 ADP 就业人数、5 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI、4 月贸易帐以及最受关注的 5 月非农就业报告等。 （2）央行政策动态：周三加拿大央行和周四欧洲央行将公布利率决议。如果央行维持利率不变或降息，会使得货币市场利率下降，持有黄金的机会成本降 低，对黄金价格形成支撑；若央行选择加息，则会提高持有黄金的机会成本，打压黄金价格。此外，虽然美联储6月15号才开会讨论利率，但市场对其加息 或降息的预期会提前反映在黄金价格波动上。若市场预期美联储 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market for steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, and other products is weak, with pessimistic market expectations and insufficient rebound momentum. The market rhythm is still volatile, and attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand and relevant domestic and foreign policies [2][3]. - The supply and demand of iron ore have certain marginal weakening pressures, and the external trade uncertainty is still high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The prices of coke and coking coal continue to decline, and there is a need to observe the sustainability of further negative feedback. The price of coking coal still has a downward driving force [4][5]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have reached new lows for the year, and their prices remain weak [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel market is weak, with the rebar surface demand slightly increasing, production decreasing, and inventory continuing to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils have both increased significantly, and the inventory has continued to decline. The demand shows certain resilience in the off-season, but its sustainability remains to be observed. The iron water production has continued to decline but remains at a relatively high level, and the negative feedback expectation continues to ferment. The market expectation is still pessimistic, and the rebound momentum of the market is insufficient [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is in a weak and volatile state. The global shipment is fluctuating normally, and the domestic arrival volume is currently weak but is expected to rebound in the future. The port inventory has continued to decline. The terminal demand has entered the off-season, and the iron water production has gradually declined from its high level. It is expected that the short-term production reduction space for iron water is relatively limited, and steel mills have no motivation to actively replenish inventory. The iron ore supply and demand face certain marginal weakening pressures, and the external trade uncertainty is still high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [3]. Coke - The coke price continues to decline. The iron water production has continued to fall, and the second round of price cuts for coking has been fully implemented. The daily coke production remains at a relatively high level for the year, and the overall inventory has slightly increased. The coke price support may decline due to the downward shift in costs caused by the reduction in coking coal prices [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price continues to decline. The production of coking coal mines remains at a relatively high level, with some mines reducing production. The number of shut-down mines has decreased by 1 to 17. The spot auction market has weakened significantly, and the transaction price has continued to decline. The terminal inventory has continued to decline slightly, while the total coking coal inventory has increased slightly month-on-month, and the inventory pressure at the production end has continued to accumulate rapidly. The trading of imported Mongolian coal has continued to weaken. The coking coal price still has a downward driving force [5]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price has reached a new low for the year. The iron water production has continued to decline slightly, and the export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a relatively small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has remained basically flat, and the demand has remained stable at a high level. The ferrosilicon supply has continued to decline, the market transaction level is average, and the on-balance-sheet inventory has slightly decreased. The price remains weak [8]. Ferromanganese - The ferromanganese price has reached a new low for the year. Due to the previous continuous production reduction, the inventory has decreased, and the fundamentals have slightly improved. The manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port has slightly decreased, but the long-term inventory accumulation trend has not changed. The iron water production has continued to decline slightly, and the ferromanganese supply has slightly increased. The manganese ore inventory has started to accumulate, and the market expectation has changed. The price remains weak [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the previous supply - side reform, the problems faced by the non - ferrous sector were much smaller than those of the black sector [2][6] - The 656th Document established the "ceiling" for electrolytic aluminum production capacity, ending the dilemma of continuous growth despite repeated regulations [3][38] - Compared with the black sector, the supply - demand balance of the non - ferrous metal industry is relatively healthy, and strategic resources are being reserved by accumulating intermediate inventories [4][49] - The industry prosperity of the non - ferrous metal demand side varies, and the emerging economy has a higher driving force for non - ferrous metals than traditional industries [5][75] - It is less likely to launch a new round of supply - side reform in the non - ferrous sector due to its relatively healthy supply - demand balance, strategic nature, and complex and dispersed industrial chain [106] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Reform Background and Motivation - The current market's attention to potential supply - side reform is due to over - supply of industrial products, weakening external demand caused by trade frictions, and the call for anti - "involution - style" price cuts. Similar problems led to the 2015 supply - side reform [8] - In the 2015 supply - side reform, industrial product prices (PPI) declined for 54 consecutive months, and over - capacity seriously squeezed industrial enterprises' profit margins. Currently, over - capacity is spreading to the middle and lower reaches [8][12] - External economic downturn led to a decline in China's exports in 2015, and trade protectionism in developed economies and competition from low - cost countries further worsened China's foreign trade environment [18][19] 3.2 Comparison between Non - ferrous and Black Sectors - From 2012 - 2016, the non - ferrous sector was more prosperous than the black sector, with relatively stable capacity utilization in non - ferrous smelting and rolling industries. However, non - ferrous metal prices were under pressure, dragging down enterprise profit growth [20][28] 3.3 Factors Affecting Non - ferrous Metal Demand - In 2017, factors such as enterprise capital expenditure, emerging industries (new energy vehicles, 5G, semiconductors), and real - estate recovery driven by shantytown renovation monetization and overseas economic recovery boosted non - ferrous metal demand [30][37] 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Reform - Before setting the 4500 - million - ton production capacity ceiling in 2017, the electrolytic aluminum industry had experienced six rounds of "failed" regulations. The 656th Document established the ceiling and launched supply - side reform, including measures such as determining the ceiling, setting energy and environmental thresholds, and optimizing production capacity layout [38][40][42] - Compared with the "one - size - fits - all" approach in the black sector, electrolytic aluminum production restrictions are more "seasonal" and "refined", mainly concentrated in the heating season and becoming more precise over time [46] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance of the Non - ferrous Sector - The capacity utilization rate of non - ferrous smelting and rolling has been stable at around 80%. The non - ferrous sector emphasizes the logic of "resource is king", with the intermediate smelting end yielding profits to the upstream mining end. Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different profit performances due to downstream demand [59] - The non - ferrous sector shows a pattern where the upstream is stronger than the middle and downstream, and refined metal inventories are accumulating. This is related to the high import dependence of non - ferrous minerals in China, and China reserves strategic resources by expanding intermediate inventories [60][68][74] 3.6 Demand - side Characteristics of Non - ferrous Metals - The non - ferrous sector has more diverse intermediate products and a more dispersed downstream demand compared to the black sector, which increases the difficulty of supply - side reform [77] - The demand from the power industry for non - ferrous metals accounts for a high and increasing proportion. The demand for copper in the power industry is expected to grow by 6.5 - 9%, and the demand for aluminum in the power industry is expected to grow by about 10% in 2025 [80][85][86] - The real - estate sector's demand for non - ferrous metals is differentiated. While the real - estate market is generally weak, policies have promoted the demand for copper in the power and home appliance industries, leading to a differentiation strategy of "long non - ferrous, short black" [87] - The new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries have become new drivers of non - ferrous metal demand. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year sales of new energy vehicles reached 46.3%, and the global and Chinese new - added photovoltaic installations are expected to drive the demand for non - ferrous metals [105]

Group 1: Macro Economic Outlook - The global economy is undergoing a restructuring of the monetary system, driven by changes in trust due to shifts in international relations, leading to a gradual "de-dollarization" process [3] - The long-term bull market for gold is expected to continue, as the decline in trust among countries is unlikely to change, indicating a historical shift [3] - In the short to medium term, the U.S. dollar may face further credit decline risks, with potential upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and inflation expectations [3] Group 2: U.S. Tax Policy Risks - The new U.S. tax reduction plan presents three main risks: financing risk due to inappropriate U.S. debt supply pressure, economic risk from unfair income distribution effects, and trust risk related to unfriendly international tax policies [6] Group 3: Trade Relations and Asset Prices - Historical analysis shows that asset prices are significantly influenced by trade relations, with market sensitivity to negative signals being higher than to positive ones [7] - The performance of different asset classes varies, with stocks and currencies being more sensitive to trade signals compared to the bond market [7] Group 4: Convertible Bonds Market - The convertible bond market is expected to enter a bull market due to supply-demand mismatches, with low interest rates driving demand for attractive assets [9] - The risk of credit shocks in the convertible bond market is considered manageable, with strong support for the current convertible bond pricing [10] Group 5: IPO Market Strategy - The IPO market is set for high-quality development, with regulatory support for technology-driven companies and a steady increase in the number of IPOs expected in 2025 [16][17] - The anticipated issuance of 80 to 140 new stocks in 2025 is expected to raise approximately 94 billion yuan, with a projected average first-day increase of 150% for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [17] Group 6: Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery industry is facing intensified price competition, but healthy competition is expected to prevail, with market share likely concentrating among leading companies [18] - The resilience of leading e-commerce delivery companies is noted, with their performance remaining stable amid competitive pressures [18] Group 7: 3D DRAM Technology - The transition from 2D to 3D DRAM architecture is highlighted as a long-term trend, with significant implications for AI applications and hardware development [20] Group 8: Textile and Apparel Industry - The textile and apparel industry is expected to benefit from high-end segments and e-commerce trends, with a focus on brands that adapt to new market dynamics [22][23] Group 9: Yellow Wine Industry - The yellow wine industry is undergoing structural upgrades, with leading companies focusing on high-end product development and targeting younger consumer demographics [25]

| Cleiking | 日度策略参考 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人业资格号: F0% 发 | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | | | 警惕关税政策反复的风险,重点关注特朗普政府的举措和表态。 | 黑粉 | 期指操作建议以观望为主, | 谨慎追涨。 | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险, | 压制上涨 | 国债 | 黑汤 | 宏观金融 | 空间。 | | 震荡 | 金价短期或再度进入震荡;但中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实。 | 真金 | 短期高位区间震荡,但中期上方空间有限。 | 白银 | 農汤 | | 宏观情绪有所反复,而刚果(金)铜矿供应存在扰动,加剧市场 | 对铜矿供应短缺担忧。 | | | | | | 近期国内电解铝社会库存持续下滑,现货升水走高,电解铝低库 | 存对铝价仍有支撑,但随着铝价走高,上行空间受限,预计近期 | 震荡 | 震荡运行。 | | | | 氧化铝现货价格持续走高,期货贴水明显,期货盘面价格下行动 | 氧化铝 | 農汤 | 力减弱。 | | | | 供应增量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff conflict between China and the U.S. has prompted Chinese companies, particularly in Guangdong, to adapt their strategies to mitigate risks and explore new markets as a response to the changing trade environment [1][2]. Group 1: Company Responses to Tariff Changes - Companies like Kunyan Technology in Foshan have faced significant challenges due to their heavy reliance on the North American market, which accounted for over 80% of their business. The sudden increase in tariffs led to a halt in orders, prompting the company to seek new markets and diversify its customer base [2][3]. - Kunyan Technology has successfully reduced its North American customer base to less than 50% by actively engaging with clients from Brazil, Germany, the UK, and France, thus mitigating risks associated with the tariff conflict [3]. - Shenzhen Kairun Electronics has seen a 67% drop in the export volume of digital cameras due to increased tariffs, leading the company to optimize its supply chain and explore emerging markets to counteract the impact of policy changes [4][5]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments and Innovations - Kairun Electronics is implementing strategic adjustments by enhancing contract terms to clarify delivery timelines and risk-sharing, as well as optimizing pricing mechanisms to remain competitive amidst tariff fluctuations [4][5]. - Dongguan's Wanle Toy Company has shifted its focus to domestic sales, signing a significant procurement order with JD Supermarket worth 50 million yuan, thus alleviating pressure from the U.S. market [6]. - The trend of "exporting to domestic sales" is gaining traction among companies, with many exploring local markets to reduce dependency on international trade [6]. Group 3: Global Expansion and Supply Chain Restructuring - Companies are increasingly adopting a "don't put all eggs in one basket" approach, diversifying their market presence to reduce reliance on single markets, as seen with Kunyan Technology's outreach to various countries [7][8]. - Many Guangdong enterprises are establishing manufacturing bases in countries like Mexico to minimize geopolitical risks and reduce tariff impacts while being closer to end markets [8][9]. - The shift towards global supply chain restructuring is evident, with companies considering Southeast Asia for production and sourcing opportunities [7][8]. Group 4: Brand Development and Localization - There is a growing emphasis on building strong independent brands as companies transition from pure OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) models to brand-oriented strategies, enhancing their market presence and pricing power [10][11]. - Companies are focusing on localizing their products and services to meet the preferences of different markets, which includes adapting product designs and establishing local service teams to improve customer satisfaction [11][12].

Core Points - The U.S. government signed an executive order named "reciprocal tariffs" to strengthen its voice in international trade and reduce the growing trade deficit [1] - The reciprocal tariff policy includes imposing tariffs on countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods, affecting economies like the EU, China, and Japan [1] - In Southeast Asia, countries like Vietnam, Laos, and Myanmar have significantly higher tariff rates compared to the EU and Japan [1] Tariff Rates Summary - The initial reciprocal tariff rate for China was set at 34%, later increased to 84% and then 125% [3] - China responded by raising tariffs on U.S. imports, with soybean tariffs increasing from 10% to 44% [3] - The price increase of consumer goods in the U.S. ranged from 10% to 20%, impacting low- and middle-income families significantly [3] Tariff Rate Table - The table lists various countries and their corresponding reciprocal tariff rates, with notable rates including: - Vietnam: 46% - Laos: 48% - Japan: 24% - EU: 20% [4] Rare Earth Elements Overview - China controls a significant portion of the global rare earth market, holding 36% of the total reserves [7] - The U.S. relies heavily on imports for rare earth elements, with over 90% of its needs met through imports, primarily from China [7] - Rare earth elements are crucial for military and high-tech applications, with 35% of U.S. rare earth usage allocated to military purposes [8] China's Dominance in Rare Earths - China possesses 88% of the global heavy and medium rare earth resources, which are vital for high-tech applications [11] - The U.S. faces challenges in rare earth refining technology, with costs significantly higher than those in China [11] - China's control over rare earth separation patents and refining capacity gives it a strategic advantage over the U.S. [11] Global Rare Earth Production - In 2024, global rare earth production reached 390,000 tons, with China contributing 69.23% of this output [13] - If China imposes restrictions on rare earth exports, the U.S. supply chain, particularly in the renewable energy and military sectors, would face severe disruptions [13]