鲍威尔表示，美联储认为等待并进一步观察的成本相当低，因此他们选择这样做。他指出，在其他经济体 还未对进口商品大规模加征关税的情况下，这些经济体更多面临的是需求疲软和劳动力市场降温的影响， 而无需像美联储那样担忧今年晚些时候可能出现的物价攀升压力。 此外，由于美国经济刚刚经历了一段艰难的高通胀时期，不少美联储官员也认为他们不应冒着先发制人的 降息风险来提振放缓的就业，以免在短期内加剧物价上涨的压力。这种立场已使得美联储与欧洲、加拿大 和英国央行处于了截然不同的政策轨道上。 在最近的美联储议息会议后，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上多次使用"等待"一词的不同表述，强调美 联储不会急于行动来缓冲特朗普总统关税政策对经济可能造成的冲击。这一表态引发了外界的高度关注。 特朗普曾公开批评鲍威尔行动迟缓，并建议美联储效仿欧洲央行。但一些美联储官员近期已特别强调，他 们担心在经济疲软之前降息可能会在短期内放大物价压力。这种担心在很大程度上正是由特朗普的关税政 策所触发的。 摩根大通的经济学家已将美联储首次降息的时间点调整到了9月份，而高盛则预计美联储将从7月份才会开 始降息。这很可能令美欧间的利差至少在未来几个月进一步放大。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current decline in gold prices is influenced by upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, with market participants expecting rates to remain unchanged at a high probability of 98.1% [3] Market Analysis - As of May 7, gold prices have dropped to $3383.57 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 1.37% from earlier highs [1] - The highest price reached was $3437.49 per ounce, while the lowest was $3359.78 per ounce during the trading session [1] - The recent economic data, including a slowdown in core PCE inflation to 2.6% and strong employment figures, has alleviated some market concerns regarding inflationary pressures [3] Trading Strategy - The market anticipates a potential upward movement in gold prices if the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish stance, suggesting possible rate cuts [3] - Conversely, if the Fed maintains its current rate, it could strengthen the dollar and exert downward pressure on gold prices [3] - Current trading strategies suggest monitoring the price range between $3350 and $3404 for potential high-low trading opportunities, with a focus on support levels at $3350 and $3290 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations between the US and China, with a notable drop in gold prices due to reduced demand for safe-haven assets as trade talks progress [1][3][4] - Gold prices experienced a significant drop of nearly 2% in early Asian trading on May 7, following a two-week high, attributed to optimism surrounding US-China trade discussions [1][3] - Despite the recent decline, gold prices have increased by over 4% for the week, indicating underlying support from geopolitical risks and inflation concerns [1][4] Group 2 - The US Treasury Secretary's comments on the potential for progress in US-China trade negotiations have contributed to a more optimistic market sentiment, impacting gold's safe-haven demand [3][4] - The ongoing geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, continue to drive safe-haven investments into gold [4][5] - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is anticipated to influence gold prices, with expectations that the Fed will maintain interest rates, which could further support gold if a dovish stance is indicated [5][6] Group 3 - Oil prices have surged due to increased demand from Asia and a decrease in US production, with WTI crude oil rising by 3.18% to $58.97 per barrel [7][8] - The OPEC+ decision to increase production significantly in June may create downward pressure on oil prices in the medium term, despite current upward momentum driven by easing trade tensions [8][10] - The market is closely monitoring US inventory data and trade negotiations, as these factors are crucial for understanding future oil price movements [8][10]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced fluctuations, with a rebound following gold prices, amid concerns over new U.S. policies on drug imports and tariffs, which have heightened demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, which poses long-term pressure on non-yielding assets like silver [2] - The current silver price is testing a key resistance level of $33.500, with potential upward movement if this level is breached [2] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with geopolitical tensions potentially driving silver prices above $33.500 towards the psychological level of $35.000 [3] - Institutional positioning shows a slight increase in long and short ratios, indicating a balanced market without extreme sentiment [3] Technical Analysis - The Bollinger Bands indicate that silver is currently in an upward channel, with the upper band at $34.715 and the lower band at $29.966 [2] - Key support levels for silver are identified at $32.800 and $32.400, with a potential drop to $31.182 if these levels are breached [3] Trading Strategy - A trading strategy suggests entering long positions around $31.88 with a stop loss at $31.50 and a take profit target between $33.68 and $33.90 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices experienced a significant drop due to easing concerns over international trade tensions following a scheduled meeting between Chinese and U.S. officials [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain interest rates, with a probability of 98.1% for no change, which is a key factor influencing gold prices [3] - Recent economic data, including a slowdown in core PCE inflation to 2.6% and strong employment figures, have alleviated market worries about inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy [3] Group 2 - Gold prices showed a significant upward trend earlier in the week but are now facing a necessary correction after a 200-point increase, with the upcoming interest rate decision expected to influence future movements [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3436, while support levels are noted at 3377 and 3350, indicating potential trading strategies based on these price points [5] - The analysis suggests a cautious approach to trading, recommending short positions at current prices with a focus on testing support levels [5]

Core Insights - The U.S. trade deficit reached a record high of $140.5 billion in March, increasing by 14.0% from the revised $123.2 billion in February, primarily due to increased imports before tariff hikes [1] - For the first quarter, the trade deficit expanded significantly, contributing to a negative GDP growth for the first time in three years [1] Trade Deficit and Import/Export Data - In March, the trade deficit for goods and services was $140.5 billion, up $17.3 billion from February, marking a 14.0% increase [1] - Exports in March totaled $278.5 billion, a slight increase of $0.5 billion or 0.2% from February, while imports rose to $419.0 billion, an increase of $17.8 billion or 4.4% [1] - Year-to-date through March, the trade deficit increased by $1.896 billion or 92.6% compared to the same period in 2024, with exports up by $411 million (5.2%) and imports up by $2.307 billion (23.3%) [1] Average Trade Data - For the three months ending in March, the average trade deficit rose by $14.1 billion to $131.4 billion, with average exports increasing by $4.0 billion to $275.7 billion and average imports increasing by $18.1 billion to $407.1 billion [1] Detailed Breakdown of Goods and Services - In March, goods exports increased by $1.3 billion to $183.2 billion, with notable growth in industrial supplies, natural gas, non-monetary gold, and automobiles, while capital goods saw a decline [3] - Services exports decreased by $0.9 million to $95.2 billion, with a significant drop in travel services, although transportation and financial services showed mixed results [3] - Goods imports rose by $17.8 billion to $346.8 billion, driven by increases in consumer goods and capital goods, while industrial supplies and non-monetary gold saw declines [3] - Services imports decreased slightly by $0.1 million to $72.2 billion, with varying changes in travel and transportation services [4] Actual Trade Data - In March, the actual goods trade deficit increased by $14.0 billion or 10.2% to $150.9 billion, with actual goods exports rising by $2.4 billion (1.6%) to $149.7 billion and actual goods imports increasing by $16.4 billion (5.8%) to $300.6 billion [4] Trade Partner Dynamics - In March, the U.S. had trade surpluses with countries like the Netherlands and regions in South America and Central America, while experiencing trade deficits with the EU and Ireland, with increased deficits noted with Ireland and France, and a decrease with Switzerland [4]

Fundamental Analysis - The silver market is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations around 33.11, with the U.S. services sector showing a rebound in April, while inflationary pressures from tariffs are increasing [1] - The ISM survey indicates that the non-manufacturing PMI rose from 50.8 in March to 51.6 in April, contrary to economists' expectations of a drop to 50.2, suggesting preemptive purchasing by businesses and households ahead of tariff implementations [1] - The new orders index in the ISM survey increased from 50.4 in March to 52.3 in April, indicating stronger demand [1] Market Sentiment - The market is cautious with gold prices holding gains, suggesting strong support from safe-haven buying and dip buying, while investors should be wary of potential further increases in gold prices [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, but uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies casts a shadow over economic prospects [2] - Gold has seen a significant increase of over 26% this year, often performing well in low-interest-rate environments [2] Technical Analysis - The silver market is currently in a price consolidation phase, with support levels around 32.05 and resistance at 33.00 [6] - The MACD indicator shows a downward trend, indicating a cautious trading environment with reduced market activity [6] - Suggested trading strategy includes entering short positions near 32.70 with a stop loss at 33.00 and a take profit target between 32.00 and 31.00 [6]

Fundamental Analysis - Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on overseas film production has raised global trade war concerns, increasing market uncertainty and driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The U.S. services sector showed signs of recovery in April, with the non-manufacturing PMI rising from 50.8 in March to 51.6, indicating positive growth [3] - However, the index measuring corporate payment prices surged to its highest level in over two years, driven by tariff impacts, leading to increased inflationary pressures [3] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's policy decision, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% [3] - Due to the ongoing effects of Trump's tariff policy, market expectations for a rate cut in June have dropped to 37%, with major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Barclays pushing back their rate cut predictions to July [3] Technical Analysis - The gold market exhibited a clear shift in momentum last week, initially experiencing a consolidation phase before a downward trend took hold [5] - A significant bullish reversal occurred on Monday, with gold prices rising sharply and closing with a large bullish candle, indicating a potential shift back to a bullish market [5] - Current technical indicators suggest that if gold can maintain support above the moving averages, an upward trend may continue; otherwise, a new round of adjustments could occur [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3353, 3370/3371, and 3386, while support levels are at 3305 and the critical zone of 3270-3260 [7][8]

Group 1 - The Eurozone's April Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) shows increasing inflation pressure, with core HICP rising to 2.7%, exceeding market expectations of 2.5% and the previous value of 2.4% [2] - Overall HICP year-on-year growth reached 2.2%, also surpassing the market forecast of 2.1%, indicating a steady upward trend in price levels [2] - Despite strong inflation data, market expectations regarding the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy remain cautious due to potential economic downturn risks from U.S. tariffs [2][3] Group 2 - The Governor of the Bank of Finland, Rehn, emphasized the need to consider all policy options, including negative interest rates, highlighting the delicate balance the ECB must maintain amid rising inflation and external risks [3] - ECB Vice President Gentiloni expressed confidence in achieving inflation targets, noting that factors like a strong euro and commodity price declines could suppress price increases [4] - Gentiloni also pointed out that uncertainty poses risks to economic development, while maintaining that the eurozone is not expected to fall into recession [4]

IMF总裁格奥尔基耶娃：美国将面临通胀压力。 ...