🇺🇸 US CPI will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.The market expectations are at 3.1%, while last month's CPI was at 2.9%.Here are different scenarios:1⃣ CPI > 3.1%This will be bearish for markets.This is because it'll mark the highest CPI print since June 2024.2⃣ CPI = 3.1%This will be in line with the expectations but still somewhat bearish.This is because it'll show a 0.2% MoM CPI increase, which is 2.4% annualized CPI.And the Fed target inflation is 2%, which means Powell could become a bit hawkish.3⃣ CP ...

Core Insights - The government shutdown has reached its 24th day, impacting various sectors and investor sentiment [1] - Investors are anticipating the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will provide insights into inflation trends [1] Economic Impact - The ongoing government shutdown may lead to uncertainty in economic indicators, affecting market stability [1] - The upcoming CPI data is crucial for understanding inflationary pressures and potential impacts on monetary policy [1]

Bond Market Overview - The 10-year yield has briefly crossed above 4% again, influenced by rising oil prices [1][2] - The last close above 4% was on Friday, with a new low yield close for the year recorded at 3.95% [2] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Tomorrow's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to show metrics over 3% year-over-year, which is expected to impact treasury selling pressure [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for three weeks, becoming the second-longest shutdown in history. The two parties remain deadlocked over the upcoming expiration of medical subsidies, and the total U.S. federal government debt has exceeded $38 trillion, providing potential safe-haven support [2]. - The market's expectation of loose policies from Japan's new political party has strengthened, pushing the U.S. dollar to continue to strengthen in the short term, which may continue to suppress the gold price [2]. - Looking ahead, there are many uncertainties in the macro - environment. The London gold price still has strong buying support at the $4000 mark, but subsequent correction risks should be guarded against. The short - term trend of gold and silver will mainly be wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the U.S. CPI data released on Friday. If the CPI is stronger than expected, it may weaken the expectation of interest rate cuts and lead to a further correction in the gold price. The trading range for the SHFE Gold 2512 contract is 900 - 1000 yuan/gram, and for the SHFE Silver 2512 contract is 11000 - 11600 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE Gold main contract was 942.28 yuan/gram, a decrease of 10.28 yuan; the closing price of the SHFE Silver main contract was 11467 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 63 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of SHFE Gold were 189131 lots, a decrease of 3672 lots; the main contract positions of SHFE Silver were 377229 lots, a decrease of 9004 lots [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 holders of the SHFE Gold main contract were 109168 lots, a decrease of 1528 lots; the net positions of the top 20 holders of the SHFE Silver main contract were 97767 lots, an increase of 135 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 87015 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver was 663366 kilograms, a decrease of 28322 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 938 yuan/gram, a decrease of 5.5 yuan; the spot price of silver was 11360 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 57 yuan [2]. - The basis of the SHFE Gold main contract was - 4.28 yuan/gram, an increase of 4.78 yuan; the basis of the SHFE Silver main contract was - 107 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 6 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings were 1052.37 tons, a decrease of 6.29 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15597.61 tons, a decrease of 79.03 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 266749 contracts, an increase of 339 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC were 52276 contracts, an increase of 738 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the global total annual demand for silver was 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 33.48%, an increase of 5.33 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 24.5%, an increase of 3.17 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 31.86%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 31.86%, a decrease of 2.53 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of October 21, the total U.S. federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [2]. - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for 22 days, becoming the second - longest shutdown in history. The two parties are deadlocked over medical subsidies, and it may last until November [2]. - U.S. President Trump cancelled his meeting with Russian President Putin in Budapest. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Russia's largest oil producer [2]. - India and the U.S. are about to reach a trade agreement, potentially reducing the tariff on Indian goods exported to the U.S. from about 50% to 15% - 16% [2]. - There are signs of a缓和 in international trade relations, and there are rumors that senior Chinese and U.S. leaders will hold tariff negotiations in Malaysia [2].

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. economic data is limited, and the Federal Reserve is in a communication blackout period, leading the market to rely on corporate earnings reports and government officials' statements for guidance [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The bank anticipates that there is still a 50 basis points room for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] Group 2: Market Focus - Short-term market attention is directed towards Singapore's September CPI, Taiwan's September industrial production, Hong Kong's September CPI, and the Eurozone's preliminary consumer confidence for October [1]

QCP noted that the U.S. government shutdown has paused most official data releases, leaving September CPI — exceptionally set to be released by the BLS on Friday, October 24 — as the only key hard data for the Fed. A monthly CPI print around 0.2% could reinforce soft-landing expectations and boost Bitcoin performance.https://t.co/wgOsYpDMS2 ...

每经AI快讯，10月22日消息，南非9月CPI同比上涨3.4%，符合预期。 ...

每经AI快讯，10月22日，英国9月CPI环比持平，预期增长0.2%；9月CPI同比增长3.8%，预期增长4%。 ...

RT Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ (@shanaka86)The hidden punchline in your table … the CPI of life (house + healthcare + college) compounds faster than cash.Implied from your numbers (1990→2024):• Housing: ~2.6× price rise ⇒ ~2.8%/yr• Healthcare: ~4.0× ⇒ ~4.2%/yr• College: ~6.5× ⇒ ~5.7%/yr• Money-market: ~2.56× ⇒ 2.8%/yr• Gold: ~6.84× ⇒ 5.8%/yrSo a saver riding money-markets roughly kept up with generic CPI, but fell behind the “life basket” that actually matters (tuition, care, shelter). Gold, with a scarcity-dri ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit markets are showing signs of stability, with only a slight widening of credit spreads, indicating that Wall Street may be less concerned than equity market shareholders about recent reports [1][2]. Credit Market Insights - The fixed income markets are perceived as reliable indicators of investor sentiment regarding bank balance sheets, suggesting a positive outlook for the financial services sector [2][3]. - Corporate bonds are still considered attractive, particularly high-quality and shorter-duration credits, despite the tightening spreads historically [4][5]. Earnings Season Analysis - Earnings reports across various sectors, including financial services and consumer goods, are expected to remain solid, with corporate executives indicating strong margins [7][8]. - Potential risks include trade policy changes and consumer spending patterns, which could impact margins and overall earnings [8][9]. Trade Policy Concerns - The possibility of additional tariffs on Chinese imports remains a concern, with hopes for a diplomatic resolution to avoid negative impacts on businesses [10][11]. - Companies are seeking clarity on trade rules to adapt their strategies effectively, as uncertainty hampers decision-making [12]. Inflation and Federal Reserve Outlook - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is crucial, with expectations of a 3% year-over-year increase, which may influence Federal Reserve policy [14][16]. - The Fed is likely to remain vigilant regarding inflation while also considering labor market conditions in their decision-making process [15][16].