风险偏好打压避险资产，金价下跌 金十数据5月14日讯，黄金下跌，因投资者的风险偏好增强，尽管围绕关税谈判路径的不确定性挥之不 去，而且对今年降息的乐观情绪有所增强。Forex.com市场分析师法瓦德•拉扎克扎达表示："随着关税 降低，以及谈判显示出实际进展，投资者正变得越来越放心。更重要的是，周二美国公布的低于预期的 通胀数据火上浇油，安抚了特朗普的贸易关税将引发新一轮通胀浪潮的紧张情绪。看跌势头可能会持续 几天，但长期看涨前景仍然完好无损。" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent US-China Geneva talks have led to a temporary resolution of the trade war, with President Trump showing signs of compromise rather than aggression [1][3] - Trump stated that US tariffs on China are unlikely to return to the previous high of 145%, indicating a shift in negotiation dynamics [3] - The outcome of the US-China trade discussions has affected the global standing of the US, leading to retaliatory actions from other countries like India and Japan [5][6] Group 2 - India has proposed countermeasures against the US, including tariffs on certain American products, in response to the US tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum [6][8] - The negotiations between the US and India have not resulted in an agreement, which has implications for India's aspirations to become a manufacturing hub [9][11] - Japan's Prime Minister has taken a strong stance against US tariffs, emphasizing the importance of protecting Japan's automotive industry from potential harm [13][14] Group 3 - The current situation illustrates a shift in global trade dynamics, where countries are reconsidering their negotiation strategies with the US, opting for resistance rather than compromise [18] - The article suggests that the US's perceived strength may be overstated, as countries are now more willing to challenge US tariffs and negotiate from a position of strength [16][18]

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the 0-3 month target price for gold to $3,150/oz from the previous target of $3,500/oz, expecting gold prices to consolidate in the range of $3,000-3,300/oz over the coming months [1][11]. Core Insights - Gold prices reached record highs in late April, driven by strong demand, particularly from ETFs in both China and other markets, with a significant increase in gold investment demand estimated at approximately $400 billion annually [5][7][30]. - The report identifies three key drivers of gold demand: deterioration in global growth prospects due to tariff shocks, diversification of foreign reserves towards gold, and rising concerns over currency debasement in the US and China [6][25]. - The report anticipates a physical market deficit for gold, with investment demand expected to exceed 100% of mine supply during 2Q'25, which historically correlates with price increases [35][77]. Summary by Sections Gold Prices and Market Dynamics - Gold prices are expected to consolidate after a significant rally, with the report noting that the recent price surge was largely influenced by tariff-related concerns [11][41]. - The report highlights that gold's share in global central bank reserves has increased significantly, which may limit future demand for gold as central banks approach their target allocations [59][63]. Demand Analysis - The report indicates that gold jewelry demand has weakened, with a 19% decline in volume terms in 1Q'25 compared to the previous year, which may further impact gold prices [42][47]. - Central bank demand has been robust, particularly from emerging markets, contributing to the overall bullish sentiment for gold [60][77]. Investment Demand and Price Correlation - The relationship between gold prices and investment demand has been strong, with the report stating that for every 10% increase in net investment demand as a share of mine supply, gold prices rise by approximately $170/oz [84][88]. - The report emphasizes that the current high levels of gold prices are creating a unique opportunity for gold producers, as forward prices are significantly higher than spot prices, allowing for potential high margins [65][73].

中辉有色观点 | 200 | 111 | 197 | 1 | I | 1 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | N | C | 1 | E | | | | 金银：关税谈判情绪和通胀降温影响，黄金震荡 表 1：产业高频数据 | 盘面信息 | 最新 | 最新 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 上周 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | SHFE黄金 | 767.68 | 772.28 | -0. 60% | 804 | -4. 46% | | | COMEX黄金 | 3255 | 3242 | 0. 39% | 3310 | -1.69% | | 白银 | SHFE 白 银 | 8245 | 8232 | 0. 16% | 8235 | 0. 12% | | | COMEX白银 | 33 | 33 | 0. 90% | 33 | 1.47% | | | 上海金银比 | 93. 40 | 93.81 | -0. 44% | 97.37 | -4. 07% | | 比价 | COME ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a lack of direction following the initial positive response to the temporary tariff reduction agreement between China and the US, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing a decline of over 400 points [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,108, down 441 points or 1.9%, while the National Index fell by 2% to 8,386, and the Tech Index dropped by 3.3% to 5,269 [3] Macro & Industry Dynamics - UBS has downgraded its outlook on the US stock market from "bullish" to "neutral," citing that the market has already priced in too many trade-related concerns, with the S&P 500 index rising 11% since April 10 [6] - UBS expects that the recent tariff negotiations will lead to an upward revision of China's economic growth forecast from 4% and a reduction in the trade war's drag on growth from 2 percentage points to approximately 1 percentage point [6][7] - Nomura has upgraded its rating on Chinese stocks to "tactical overweight," indicating that the recent tariff agreement will support positive risk sentiment in Asian markets and enhance the attractiveness of Chinese stocks [8] Company News - Meituan's subsidiary, Keeta, plans to enter the Brazilian market with an investment of $1 billion (approximately 7.8 billion HKD) over the next five years, aiming to enhance consumer experience and create job opportunities [10] - Nissin Foods reported a 6.71% year-on-year decrease in net profit for the first quarter, with a profit of 110 million HKD, despite a revenue increase of 11.31% to 1.072 billion HKD [11] - Shengye announced a placement of up to 17.48 million new shares at a discount of 6.91% to raise approximately 210 million HKD, which will be used to accelerate the expansion of its platform technology services [12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the lithium battery and new energy sectors, focusing on the impact of U.S. tariff adjustments on these industries [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Adjustments**: The U.S. has frequently adjusted tariffs on lithium batteries and related products. The total tax rate for energy storage batteries has decreased to 40.9%, but if no agreement is reached in the next three months, it could rise to 64.5% [1][2]. - **Impact on Demand**: The reduction in tariffs is expected to marginally improve the economic viability of energy storage projects, particularly benefiting Tesla's North American storage demand, with projected profits increasing to $350 million [1][3][13]. - **Market Reactions**: Companies with significant indirect exposure to the U.S. market, such as those producing consumer electronics batteries, have seen stock price adjustments due to concerns over demand shrinkage and supply chain shifts [1][5]. - **3M Company**: Initially faced pessimism regarding its energy storage business due to tariff concerns, but stock prices have begun to recover as market conditions improve. Expected shipments for 2025 are between 670-680 GWh, with profits projected around $70 billion [9]. - **Macro Trends**: The U.S. accounts for approximately 30% of global energy storage demand. The tariff reduction is expected to lead to a surge in installations in the short term [1][6]. Additional Important Content - **Indirect Exposure Risks**: Companies like EVE Energy and others in the consumer electronics battery sector are facing significant indirect exposure to U.S. tariffs, leading to stock price declines [5][14]. - **Future Opportunities**: The solid-state battery sector is highlighted as a potential investment opportunity, with several companies expected to benefit from upcoming product launches and technological advancements [18]. - **Long-term Market Trends**: The U.S. renewable energy market is projected to grow, with wind and solar power becoming increasingly competitive. This growth is expected to drive demand for energy storage solutions [19][26]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies such as Ningde Times, Sungrow Power, and others are identified as key beneficiaries in the energy storage market due to their strong positions and readiness to expand orders [28][38]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic regarding the lithium battery and energy storage sectors, with potential for growth driven by tariff adjustments and increasing demand for renewable energy solutions. Companies with strategic positioning and adaptability to market changes are likely to benefit the most in the coming years [1][17][38].

Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - The recent negotiations between China and the US resulted in a temporary suspension of most tariffs, with the US reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% and China lowering tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% [3][4] - The current tariff reduction measures are temporary and will last for 90 days, during which further negotiations are expected [4][10] Group 2: Employment Impact - As of 2024, China's import and export sector employs approximately 180 million people, with 40 million in direct employment and 140 million in related upstream and downstream industries [2] Group 3: Industry Impact - The tariff negotiations have led to significant stock price increases in the electric vehicle supply chain and related industries in China [5][8] - The highest tariffs are still applied to syringes and needles due to concerns over fentanyl, which remains a critical issue in the negotiations [7] Group 4: Economic Impact - China's GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2024 is reported at 5.4% [10] - Different scenarios regarding future tariffs could impact GDP growth, with potential reductions of 0.3%, 0.9%, and 2% under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios, respectively [12] Group 5: Stock Market Impact - The current price-to-earnings ratio for China's Shanghai Composite Index is 13.8, indicating it is still in a historically undervalued range [20] - Following the announcement of tariff negotiations, the stock market showed positive reactions, recovering losses from earlier declines [22][26]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened higher but experienced a pullback during the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising by 0.17% to 3374.87 points, while other major indices declined [1] - Key sectors that performed well included shipping ports, photovoltaic, banking, hotel and catering, and daily chemicals, while military-related stocks such as aerospace and shipbuilding showed significant adjustments [1] - The overnight US stock market saw substantial gains, with the Dow Jones up 2.81%, S&P 500 up 3.26%, and Nasdaq up 4.35%, contrasting with the decline in Hong Kong stocks, where the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.87% [1] Group 2 - A significant factor affecting the foreign exchange market is the upcoming release of the US April CPI, which may influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] - Due to the reduction in tariff risks, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have shifted, with most market participants now anticipating a potential cut in September rather than July [2] Group 3 - The A-share market's weak performance can be attributed to uncertainties surrounding ongoing tariff negotiations and a potential decrease in expectations for economic stimulus policies, particularly fiscal measures [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a watchful stance and consider adjusting their portfolios to include more tariff-sensitive export stocks, as the overall tariff situation has improved significantly [3]

石破茂（资料图） 据海外网报道，日本首相石破茂表示，对美国当天开始对关键汽车零部件加征25%关税非常遗憾，将继 续要求美国重新审视相关关税措施。据日本广播协会报道，石破茂当天与日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正会 面，听取第二轮日美关税谈判详情汇报。赤泽亮正刚刚结束第二轮日美关税谈判返日。石破茂在会面后 对媒体表示，日本正与美国就包含汽车、钢铁和铝等产品的关税措施进行谈判。日美两国的立场存在分 歧，尚未找到共识。 汽车产业是日本经济的支柱之一，对美出口在日本汽车产业中占有重要地位。美国征收关税将直接打击 日企，增加经营负担。以丰田汽车为例，因关税产生的负担预计将超过1万亿日元，其他如本田、日产 等日本车企也预计将承受数千亿日元的影响。立场支撑与回应：石破茂在谈判中强调日本不会为了短期 利益而牺牲长期竞争力，同时表示日本将考虑所有选项以应对美国的关税政策。他暗示，在必要时日本 不排除做出强硬回应，以维护本国汽车产业的利益。 值得注意的是，作为全球最大的美国国债海外持有者，日本的公共和私营部门共持有超过1万亿美元的 美国国债。一段时间以来，日本会否利用美债问题向美施压备受外界关注。尽管现在一切未知，但日本 财务大臣加藤胜信 ...

这就是盘后出利好的坏处，虽然港股今天回调了，但起码昨天尾盘暴涨过，盘面富贵那也是富贵啊，何况还可以卖掉锁住盈利。A股倒 好，涨没怎么涨，今天还被港股跳水拖累了。还是美股强，没那么博弈，昨晚纳指高开高走，暴涨超4%，底部反弹超过20%，进入技术 性牛市，已经涨回到了3月份的点位。 为什么A股连续两天冲高回落？前两天也有提示大家，A股、港股基本都收复了对等关税后的跌幅，所以，即使对等关税都降低到10%， 也充分反映了。那就是利好落地，部分资金就会借着利好兑现。 再往后看，A股想继续往上涨，要么得强现实-经济复苏，要么得强预期-出刺激政策。在降准降息以及关税谈判落地后，基本上难有更强 劲的利好出现，而且由于对等关税大幅下降到10%，出口压力骤降，甚至会由于补库推动出口走强，那内需政策就没那么急了，A股就 进入了"现实没那么强，预期也没那么强"的混沌期。这种情况下，指数会偏震荡，结构性行情为主。 比较悲观的是对比2018年，2018年5月19日也是达成了暂停互加关税的协议，但A股反而见顶调整；7月6日，美国突然宣布对中国340亿 美元商品加征25%关税，打破了此前协议，A股见底反弹。这种走势突出一个"利好出尽为利空， ...