// 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行3月20日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2685亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为 1.5%。Wind数据显示，当日359亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放2326亿元，为连续 三日净投放。 2.资金面 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为4.31%。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 3.同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单二级市场上最新成交在1.95%附近，较上日明显下行。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 4.银行间主要利率债收益率普遍大幅下行。 | | 1Y | | 2Y | | ЗУ | | ર્ટેન | | 78 | | 10Y | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债 | 1.5525 ▼1.75 | 45 | 1.5600 ▼4.00 | 190 | 1.6150 ▼3.50 | 244 | 1.6700 ▼1.75 | 319 | 1.7700 ▼3.00 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the bond market is attributed to three main factors: excessive expectations for monetary easing, insufficient liquidity post-Spring Festival, and a "stock-bond seesaw" effect leading to capital outflow from bonds to stocks [1][2][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Bond Market Adjustment - The market's prior strong expectations for interest rate cuts led to an overextension in bond prices, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping from 1.95% to a low of 1.5958%, a decrease of 35 basis points [1]. - Post-Spring Festival, liquidity did not loosen as anticipated, with the central bank's focus on stabilizing the exchange rate and managing long-term interest rate risks, resulting in reduced capital outflow and increased pressure on the bond market [2]. - The rise in equity markets, particularly in technology stocks, has increased investor risk appetite, causing some funds to shift from the bond market to the stock market, creating a negative correlation between the Hang Seng Technology Index and 30-year government bond futures [2]. Group 2: Current Bond Market Status - The current yield of 1.9% on the 10-year government bond reflects a reasonable expectation of a 10 basis point rate cut for the year, with the MLF policy rate at 2.0% still serving as a significant anchor for the bond market [4]. - The yield has corrected significantly from previous overextensions, returning to levels seen before the central economic work conference, indicating that the adjustment has largely addressed prior excesses [4]. - The adjustment in the 10-year government bond yield has approached the maximum correction seen in previous cycles, with a recovery of 30 basis points from its low, suggesting limited room for further declines [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The macroeconomic logic of transitioning between old and new growth drivers and supply-demand imbalances remains, with uncertainties surrounding traditional economic recovery and external factors like tariffs and social financing data [8]. - From an asset allocation perspective, bonds provide stable cash flow over the long term, making them a valuable asset class for investors, particularly in the context of risk-averse strategies [8].

债基"迷你基"频现 3月14日，摩根基金公告，截至2025年3月12日，摩根瑞享纯债债券型证券投资基金连续30个工作日基金资产净 值低于5000万元，可能触发基金合同终止情形。 同日，尚正基金公告，尚正正达债券型证券投资基金于3月12日发生大额赎回。为确保本基金份额持有人利益 不因份额净值的小数点保留精度受到不利影响，经本基金管理人与基金托管人恒丰银行股份有限公司协商一 致，决定自3月12日起提高本基金的份额净值精度至小数点后八位，小数点后第九位四舍五入。 此外，近日还有淳厚稳鑫、淳厚稳鑫等多只债基公告基金规模陷入"迷你基"困境，亦有鹏华丰饶等产品公告提 升基金净值。 近日，多只债基披露连续多日净值低于5000万元，且也有产品因大额赎回导致需提升基金净值，此类现象 反映的是股债"跷跷板"行情下债基面临持续赎回的压力，仅在今年1月份债基就遭遇净赎回近3000亿元。 展望后市，公募对债基的乐观与谨慎的态度兼而有之，有基金公司认为当前债市收益风险或并不对等，天平的 砝码可能更多地向风险端倾斜；也有公司认为，中长期而言，基本面修复仍需时间，实际利率下行趋势下，债 券市场配置价值仍在。 在短期达到高位以及近期权益市场大 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The stock market continues to show a strong style switch, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks. The CSI 2000 index rose by 1.3%, the CSI 1000 by 1.0%, and the CSI 300 by 1.6% during the week [1]. - The beauty care, food and beverage, and coal industries led the gains this week, while the machinery and computer sectors, which had previously performed well, saw declines [1]. - The average daily trading volume decreased slightly to 1.66 trillion yuan, down 3% from the previous week [1]. - The valuation metrics indicate that the CSI 300's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 12.8, while the CSI 1000's is at 39.7, reflecting a Z-score of -0.3 [1]. Summary by Sections Stock Market Performance - The stock market experienced a strong performance with only three out of thirty-one sectors declining. The beauty care sector saw significant gains, with Kweichow Moutai rising by 5.9%, marking its largest single-day increase since October 2024 [1]. - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.1% and the Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 2.6% after a previous week of substantial gains [1]. Trading Volume and Turnover - The average daily trading volume for the week was 1.66 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous week's 1.70 trillion yuan. The turnover rate for the entire A-share market was at a Z-score of 1.1, indicating above-average trading activity [1]. Valuation Metrics - As of the end of the week, the CSI 300's price-to-earnings ratio was 12.8, with a Z-score of 0, while the CSI 1000's ratio was 39.7 with a Z-score of -0.3. The computer sector was the only one with a Z-score above 1, at 1.2 [1].

【笔记20250311— 东升西降，A债拉垮成了纳斯达克（-股市低开高走-基金赎回增加+资金面平衡宽松=大上)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率大幅上行。 央行公开市场开展377亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有382亿元逆回购到期。净回笼5亿元。 当自己与市场有预期差时，第一反应就应该意识到风险或机会，而不是先给自己找理由开脱。 ——笔记哥《应对》 债农默默流泪：不陌生，曾经的大A现在魂穿到A债身上了，每天主打一个"跌妈不认"。而30年国债期货——中国版的纳斯达克，也紧跟纳指暴跌步伐、 从一而终。 债农们一边抄写邹副行长1月份的预言家发言："投资国债并非没有风险，以30年期国债为例，收益率一旦上行30个BP，二级市场对应的国债价格下跌幅 度就会超过5%。"另一边祈祷妈妈再爱我一次，也不敢要求太高，从略显调戏的OMO净回笼5亿变成净投放5亿中不中？ 【今日盘面】 资金面均衡宽松，资金价格平稳，DR001小幅下行至1.77%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 03. 11) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a downward adjustment driven by multiple factors, including tightening liquidity, central bank policies, strong stock market performance, and increasing redemption pressures from investment products [2][3][5][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On March 7, the bond futures market saw collective declines, with the 30-year main contract down by 1.31%, the 10-year down by 0.51%, the 5-year down by 0.31%, and the 2-year down by 0.13% [1][2]. - The previous day also recorded declines across the same contracts, indicating a consistent downward trend in bond prices [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Market Adjustment - The tightening of liquidity is a primary driver, with high funding costs and an inverted yield curve discouraging institutions from leveraging [2][3]. - The central bank's focus on stabilizing the exchange rate and managing debt market risks has led to a more conservative liquidity management approach, dampening market expectations for monetary easing [2][3]. - The strong performance of the stock market, driven by a technology bull market, has created a "see-saw" effect, putting additional pressure on the bond market [2]. - There are signs of increased redemptions from investment products, raising concerns about negative feedback loops in the bond market [2][7]. Group 3: Redemption Trends - Since the beginning of the year, bond yields have risen, leading to an inversion between short-term funding rates and long-term bond yields, reflecting investor concerns about liquidity [5]. - Recent data indicates that short and medium-term bond investment products have experienced slight declines, reminiscent of a previous small-scale redemption wave [6]. - Analysts suggest that while there are signs of redemption pressure, it remains manageable for now, but further adjustments in the bond market could exacerbate these pressures [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall monetary policy remains unchanged, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts, which could influence the long-term trend of the bond market [9]. - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to face adjustment pressure in the spring, stabilizing between 1.8% and 2.0%, with a likelihood of dropping below 1.6% by year-end [9]. - Future market conditions may resemble a slow bull market, with increased volatility anticipated [9][10]. - Investment opportunities may arise from market fluctuations and yield increases, while risks could stem from potential adjustments in monetary policy if the macroeconomic environment stabilizes [9][10].

近日，兴华基金公告，截至2025年2月28日，兴华兴盛纯债基金基金募集期限届满，因未能满足基金备案条 件，故基金合同不能生效。这是进入2025年以来，首只公告发行失败的新基金，在债牛持续多个季度的背 景下，也是2023年以来首只发行失败的纯债基金。 发行端的"失宠"是年内债基回调行情的缩影。据Wind数据统计，纳入统计的近2400余只纯债基金中（仅统计 初始份额），共有1861只基金年内遭遇净值回撤，占比高达77.6%。 展望后市，有公募认为，受到债市波动的影响，债基的净值在短期的确可能出现回撤并且亏钱，但债券本身是 生息的，具备"固定收益"的特质，只要没有出现" 爆 雷"的情况，随着持有债券的逐步到期兑付，由于市场波 动造成的短期净值下跌也有望得以复原。 权益类板块的回暖是债基"失宠"的核心因素，广发基金表示，债券是典型的避险资产，大家不想承担较大风险 时，通常会偏好买入债券资产，而风险偏好提升时相反，债券就不再是"香饽饽"了。 广发基金解释称，在近期科技行情带动权益市场整体上涨的背景下，一些投资者或调整大类资产配置比例，将 部分债券持仓转换为权益类资产，这种资金迁徙也会造成债市的阶段性"失血"，出现一定的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquidity in the market has been tight since the beginning of the year, with short-term interest rates rising without immediate transmission to long-term rates due to several factors, including increased demand for long-term bonds and changing market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Initial Conditions for Short-Term to Long-Term Rate Transmission - The initial lack of transmission from short-term to long-term interest rates is attributed to three main factors: increased demand for long-term bonds due to the "opening red" period and deposit self-discipline, heightened concerns over tariffs leading to increased risk premiums, and a stronger "substitution effect" of long-term bonds over short-term bonds [4][5][6]. Group 2: Recent Developments in Rate Transmission - Since February 6, the pressure from short-term rates has begun to transmit to long-term rates, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.60% to 1.76%. This change is driven by three mechanisms: a decrease in the pulse demand for long-term bonds, a marginal correction in interest rate cut expectations, and an increase in the opportunity cost of long-term bond investments [8][9][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Long-Term Bond Yields - The tightening liquidity environment may lead to a return to a more stable long-term bond yield, with expectations that the liquidity environment will shift back to a more accommodative stance. The future trajectory will depend on the extent of fiscal stimulus and the strength of economic recovery [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the "seesaw" effect between the stock and bond markets, with A-shares continuing to rise while the bond market faces liquidity constraints and high volatility ahead of the Two Sessions [1][2]. - The bond market's recent turbulence is attributed to four main factors: increased liquidity pressure due to tax payments, a surge in government bond supply, a shift of risk-averse funds to the stock market driven by strong tech earnings, and rising policy expectations ahead of the Two Sessions [2][3]. - As of February 26, 2025, the short-term pure bond fund index experienced a decline of 4 basis points, while the medium to long-term index fell by 30 basis points, indicating a recovery from previous peaks [2]. Group 2 - The fluctuations in the bond market have impacted the core fixed-income product lines of many wealth management companies, with varying degrees of net value retraction observed, although these have improved from prior highs [3]. - According to Ping An Wealth Management, the liquidity situation is expected to stabilize post-tax period, with historical data suggesting that interbank liquidity typically improves in March [4]. - Ping An's fixed-income investment team has proactively adjusted product structures to mitigate risks, aiming for net value recovery as market conditions change [4]. Group 3 - In response to the evolving market dynamics, Zhaoyin Wealth Management is promoting a quantitative hedging product, focusing on a diversified alternative strategy with a neutral approach [5]. - The rationale for promoting alternative strategies includes the active A-share market and manageable hedging costs, with a focus on maintaining a cost-effective allocation [5].

除了入场与出场时的理由要相互一致外，入场时，对于时间的要求，也要以始为终。入场时，只是想做个短线，那出场时，就不能拖太久，不要短线做成 长线，长线做成股东；入场时，如果想长期配置持有，那就不要在乎中间的波澜和诱惑。 ——笔记哥《应对》 今日股市小幅上涨，资金面紧张态势缓和，两会小作文未超预期，债市利率震荡下行。 早盘债市情绪平稳，10Y国债利率平开在1.67%。上午资金面均衡，10Y国债利率在1.673%附近震荡。午后股市走强，股债跷跷板效应不明显。传赤字率 4%、特别国债1.3万亿等，未超预期。资金面进一步缓和，10Y国债利率震荡下行至1.6575%附近。 -------------------------- 近期资金面稳定性较差，一会儿缓和一会儿收敛，债农们每天都在琢磨"薛定谔"的买断式逆回购规模多少、何时到账。明天进入税期，叠加下旬同业存单 到期量较大，资金面这关估计还得接着闯。 【笔记20250219— "薛定谔"的债（+资金面缓和+两会小作文未超预期=中下)】 资金面均衡，长债收益率明显下行。 央行公开市场开展5389亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有5580亿元逆回购到期。净回笼191亿元。 资金面均衡 ...