Core Insights - In May, U.S. tariffs reached a historic high, contributing to a reduction in the monthly budget deficit [1] - There are concerns about the sustainability of tariff revenue due to ongoing trade negotiations and legal challenges faced by the Trump administration [1] Financial Performance - Tariff revenue in May amounted to $23 billion, an increase of $17 billion compared to the same month last year, representing a growth rate of 270% [1] - The fiscal deficit for May, after adjusting for calendar year differences, was $316 billion, a decrease of 17% from the same period last year [1] - For the first eight months of the fiscal year, the deficit totaled $1.37 trillion [1] Debt Management - A favorable factor for the fiscal situation in the previous month was the decrease in the cost of debt repayment by the Treasury [1] - This reduction is attributed to lower payments on inflation-protected securities and a decrease in the discount rate on Treasury bills [1]

在全球地缘政治局势方面，紧张局势仍在持续发酵。乌克兰方面宣称，俄罗斯发动了大规模空袭，这一事件对市场风险情绪构成了潜在扰动。在地缘政治冲 突不断升级的背景下，黄金作为传统的避险资产，其吸引力本应显著增强。然而，当前市场风险偏好因贸易谈判的乐观预期而有所改善，使得黄金的避险需 求在短期内未得到充分释放。但一旦地缘政治冲突进一步恶化，突破当前市场预期的范围，黄金价格可能会迅速获得强劲的上涨动力。 一位长期关注大宗商品领域的分析师指出："从近期黄金价格走势来看，其未能有效向上突破200小时均线，这一现象深刻反映出多头动能的不足。基于此， 短期内黄金价格倾向于进行整理，甚至存在进一步调整的可能性。"当前，黄金市场的走势受到多种复杂因素的综合影响，其中美联储未来的政策路径充满 不确定性，这在一定程度上限制了黄金价格的下跌空间。尽管此前公布的强劲就业数据在短期内对黄金价格构成利空，但CMEFedWatch工具所呈现的数据 显示，市场对于美联储在9月实施降息的概率预期仍然接近60%。这种对未来货币政策宽松的预期，使得投资者在一定程度上对黄金价格的下行持有谨慎态 度，为黄金价格提供了潜在支撑。 此外，美国长期存在的财政赤字问 ...

Core Viewpoint - Pakistan is expected to increase its defense spending while reducing its overall budget in the upcoming fiscal year, amidst economic growth initiatives and challenges from international obligations and tariffs [1] Group 1: Budget Overview - The government is likely to present a budget of 17.6 trillion rupees (approximately 62.45 billion USD) for the new fiscal year starting July 1, which represents a 6.7% decrease from the current fiscal year [1] - The projected fiscal deficit is expected to be 4.8% of GDP, with a target of 5.9% for the fiscal year 2024-25 [1] Group 2: Defense Spending - Analysts anticipate a 20% increase in the defense budget, which may be offset by cuts in research and development expenditures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming $22 billion 30-year U.S. Treasury bond auction is drawing significant attention from global financial markets, as it will reflect the true demand for U.S. long-term debt amid widespread investor resistance to such securities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Auction Indicators - The auction results will serve as a critical gauge of market demand, with key indicators including the settlement yield difference from pre-auction trading levels and the bid-to-cover ratio [4]. - A recent $20 billion 20-year Treasury auction showed weak demand, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the highest awarded yield reaching 5.047%, approximately 1.2 basis points higher than the pre-auction rate [4]. - If the 30-year Treasury auction exhibits similar weak performance, it could heighten concerns about market demand and lead to a chain reaction affecting financing pressures [4]. Group 2: Challenges Facing Long-term Debt - The U.S. Treasury market is facing multiple challenges, including a significant decline in the share of foreign official investors, which has dropped from nearly 70% in 2012 to an estimated 40% by the end of 2024 [5]. - Political factors are increasingly influencing long-term bond demand, leading to a decoupling of long-term interest rates from monetary policy, making long-term bonds a less attractive option [5]. - The U.S. government is projected to add trillions to the budget deficit over the coming years due to tax and spending legislation, contributing to a vicious cycle of increasing debt and interest payments [5].

海外策略：稳步扩张 美国经济保持稳步扩张态势，美联储年内降息预期维持在2次（约50bp），降息终点预期维持在3.5%。 上周亚特兰大联储GDPNOW模型预测二季度美国实际GDP年化增速较前值回落0.8pct至3.8%，前期长端利率上 行的紧缩效应再度显现。个人消费增速降至2.6%，商品（3.3%）与服务（2.3%）均在放缓；私人投资（不含 库存）增速降至1.6%，主要来自地产（-0.9%）及建筑（-3.0%）分项的拖累。 失业率仍在上行，但斜率极缓。 周频首次申领失业金人数上行至24.7万，符合季节性水平。5月失业率较4月上 行0.05pct至4.24%，连续第3个月维持在4.2%左右。 市场对通胀的担忧亦在缓和。 Truflation日频通胀指数降至 1.84%，较前期高点回落26bp。 财政延续了"言语收缩，行为扩张"的基调。 尽管一直在进行各种缩减赤字的表态及尝试，但实际上财政赤字 仍在扩张。周频财政赤字额达到$1,275亿，继续超出季节性水平。2025财年美国赤字水平将继续处于高位。 基于货币政策"双目标"及经济、财政形势推演，美联储并无大幅调整政策的动机，我们维持年内降息不超2次 （50bp）判断， ...

海外市场周报 证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025年06月09日 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号: S0120523080002 邮箱:xuewei@tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号:S0120523070007 邮箱:tansy@tebon.com.cn 投资要点: ● 上周全球股市涨多跌少。韩国综合指数领涨全球主要市场。美股三大指数集体上 涨,纳指、标普 500和道指涨跌幅分别为+2.2%、+1.5%和+1.2%;欧洲市场三大 主要指数集体上涨;亚太地区涨多跌少,仅越南 VN30和日经 225 指数回调。 | 会议,有望带来好消息。特朗普在国内遭遇马斯克冲击、海外对日对欧谈判踌躇难 | | --- | | 进的背景下,做出一些让步与妥协来寻求共识的诉求预计将有所加强。 | | ● 策略应对:布局风偏走高,警惕波动加剧。在全球市场有望迎来中美首轮磋商利好 | | 的背景下,布局风险偏好走高的思路值得关注,但同时也应警惕可能的波动加剧带 | | 来的潜在风险。从大类资产角度看,权益类是最优选择,特别是中美双方的权益市 | | 场，受可能利好的推动最强,而固收类与商品类则相对左侧,美债布局机会佳,金 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market experienced a significant increase last week, with a weekly trading volume of 1,208.9 billion CNY, up by 114.9 billion CNY compared to the previous week[12] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.42%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.32%[12] - The optimism surrounding US-China negotiations was reignited following a direct phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Trump, leading to a rapid appreciation of the RMB[2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - On June 6, the central bank conducted a 1 trillion CNY reverse repurchase operation, alleviating upward pressure on deposit rates, with the one-year deposit rate falling to approximately 1.67%[2] - The ADP employment figures for May were below expectations, but the non-farm payroll data released later exceeded expectations, indicating resilience in the job market[3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September slightly decreased to 50.7%[3] Group 3: Bond Market and Risks - The bond market saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 2 basis points, reflecting a comfortable liquidity environment[13] - The central bank's net withdrawal from the open market was 671.7 billion CNY, indicating a proactive approach to manage liquidity ahead of upcoming bond maturities[13] - Risks remain from potential deterioration in US-China trade relations and unexpected weakness in economic fundamentals[3]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed a mixed performance last week, with the South Korean Composite Index leading gains among major markets[3] - The US stock indices collectively rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones increasing by +2.2%, +1.5%, and +1.2% respectively[3] - European markets also saw collective gains, while the Asia-Pacific region had mixed results, with only Vietnam's VN30 and Japan's Nikkei 225 indices experiencing pullbacks[3] Employment Data - The US added 139,000 jobs in May, with an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% for three consecutive months[3] - This job growth was better than market expectations but below the 12-month average increase of 149,000 jobs per month[3] - The ADP report indicated only 37,000 new jobs were created, significantly lower than the revised 60,000 from April and the market forecast of 110,000[3] Legislative Developments - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" passed the House with a narrow margin, raising concerns over increasing fiscal deficits in the US[3] - Elon Musk criticized the bill, leading to a public fallout with former President Trump, which caused significant volatility in Tesla's stock price[3] US-China Trade Talks - The first meeting of the US-China economic consultation mechanism is scheduled from June 8 to June 13, potentially improving market risk appetite[3] - The previous high-level talks in Geneva have set a foundation for deeper negotiations, with expectations for positive outcomes[3] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on equities, particularly in the US and China, as they are likely to benefit from potential positive news from trade talks[3] - Caution is advised regarding increased volatility, with fixed income and commodities being less favorable in the current environment[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected inflation rebounds in overseas markets, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating beyond expectations[3]

Group 1 - The core issue of Trump's tax reform is the potential for uncontrolled fiscal deficits, with the tax bill expected to reduce revenue by $3.7 trillion over the next decade and increase the federal deficit by $3 trillion [4][5] - The Senate is facing challenges in passing the tax reform bill, with some conservative Republican senators expressing opposition, which may lead to a difficult negotiation process [4][5] - The tax reform is part of Trump's broader agenda, which includes tax cuts, increased tariffs, and deregulation, with tax reform being the top priority [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. job market is showing signs of moderation, with May non-farm payrolls adding 139,000 jobs, down from 147,000 in the previous month, indicating a slowing growth trend [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with internal disagreements on whether current inflation is transitory or structural, suggesting that rate cuts may not be imminent [2][3] - The ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China are critical, with the Trump administration needing to make progress before tariff exemptions expire [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involvement - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economic landscape, focusing on tariffs, fiscal policies, and the proposed "One Big, Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA) [2][3][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Uncertainty**: The U.S. Court of International Trade recently blocked tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), but a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated them, indicating ongoing tariff drama [2][3]. 2. **OBBBA Fiscal Impact**: The OBBBA is projected to add approximately $3 trillion to the deficit over ten years, with potential increases up to $5.7 trillion due to Senate budget instructions [2][7][32]. 3. **Short-term Fiscal Thrust**: Economists predict a negligible fiscal boost from the OBBBA, estimating an increase in the adjusted primary deficit of less than $150 billion between FY25 and FY26, which is about 0.4% of GDP [2][32]. 4. **Debt Ceiling Concerns**: Treasury Secretary Bessent has warned that Congress will need to raise the debt ceiling by July, with the X-date estimated at August 13 [2][30]. 5. **Higher Tariff Projections**: Economists expect U.S. tariff levels to rise, settling in the 15-18% range, despite the recent court ruling [2][3][35]. 6. **Foreign Investment Taxation**: Proposed taxes under Section 899 could deter foreign investment by increasing income tax rates on foreign entities by 5 percentage points annually, potentially reaching a maximum of 20 percentage points [2][39]. 7. **Impact on U.S. Assets**: The new tax provisions may reduce the attractiveness of U.S. assets for international investors, raising concerns about compliance burdens for foreign corporations [39][40]. Additional Important Content 1. **Legislative Process of OBBBA**: The OBBBA narrowly passed the House and is expected to face modifications in the Senate, with a realistic target for full passage by the August recess [7][8]. 2. **Amendments to Secure Votes**: Last-minute changes to the OBBBA were made to secure votes from conservative factions, including adjustments to Medicaid work requirements and clean energy tax credits [13][14]. 3. **Concerns from Republican Senators**: Several Republican senators have expressed concerns regarding Medicaid cuts and the proposed sunset dates for clean energy tax credits, which could impact future investments [28][29]. 4. **Excise Tax on Remittances**: The bill includes a 3.5% excise tax on remittance transfers by non-citizens, expected to raise approximately $22.2 billion in revenue from 2025 to 2034 [40]. 5. **Long-term Fiscal Outlook**: The overall fiscal outlook remains uncertain, with elevated deficits expected to persist, despite some anticipated savings from employment reductions [35][36]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the ongoing economic challenges and legislative developments impacting the U.S. market.