Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities suggests that if the Japanese government decides to reduce issuance, the ultra-long Japanese government bond market may continue to stabilize in the future [1] Group 1 - Nomura Securities strategist Jin Moteki believes that the Ministry of Finance may shift towards short-term borrowing starting in the third quarter, reducing the issuance of ultra-long bonds while increasing the issuance of short-term bonds [1] - This expectation appears to have led to a bull flattening of the Japanese government bond yield curve today [1] - Close attention is required on the results of the Japanese government bond primary dealer meeting scheduled for June 20 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and market activity of the credit bond ETF Bosera, which has seen a continuous increase in trading and liquidity, indicating strong investor interest [2][3] - As of May 27, 2025, the credit bond ETF Bosera has achieved a price of 100.79 yuan, marking a 0.05% increase and a seven-day consecutive rise [2] - The fund has recorded a trading volume of 46.02 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 67.44%, reflecting active market participation [2] Group 2 - The credit bond ETF Bosera has experienced a net inflow of funds over the past five days, totaling 13.03 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 5.25 billion yuan [3] - The fund's leverage has been increasing, with a latest financing balance of 55.00 million yuan, indicating sustained interest from leveraged investors [3] - Since its inception, the credit bond ETF Bosera has shown a monthly profit percentage of 66.67% and a historical three-month holding profit probability of 100.00% [3] Group 3 - The fund's maximum drawdown since inception is 0.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.10%, and it took 26 days to recover from the maximum drawdown [3] - The management fee for the credit bond ETF Bosera is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [3] - The tracking error for the fund year-to-date is 0.009%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a volatile upward trend in yields, with expectations of continued fluctuations in the near future [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The short-term funding environment is stabilizing, with DR001 fluctuating around 1.5%, and attention is on the central bank's liquidity injection at the end of the month [1] - The overall cross-month liquidity has remained stable in recent months, indicating low risk in the near term [1] - The central tendency of DR001 is expected to remain around 1.4% [1] Group 2: Credit Market Insights - There is an opportunity to capitalize on the compression of credit spreads, as short-duration high-grade credit spreads have narrowed to low levels [1] - The market may shift towards longer-duration high-grade credit bonds, particularly those with maturities of over three years [1]

5月20日，新发行的20年期日本国债拍卖结果惨淡，投标倍数跌至2.5倍，达到2012年以来最低水平，其 平均价格与最低接受价格之间的差距（尾差）飙升至1.14，反映出市场需求严重低迷。受此影响，20年 期日本国债收益率上升到2000年以来最高水平，30年、40年期国债收益率也出现飙升。5月23日，日本 最大的寿险公司——日本生命保险（Nippon Life）宣布，截至今年3月底，它持有的日本国债已经出现 巨额账面浮亏，金额高达3.6万亿日元（约合250亿美元），比去年同期暴增两倍。 日本国债遇冷成因复杂，反映出一些结构性问题和长期深层次矛盾。 首先，日本央行自2024年起逐步缩减量化宽松，每月购债规模从5.7万亿日元降至5万亿日元，计划至 2026年降至2.9万亿日元。这一缩表进程直接削弱了市场对国债的流动性支撑，而传统买家如寿险公司 却未填补缺口，导致供需失衡加剧。 其次，日本首相石破茂近期公开承认"日本财政状况比希腊更糟"。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）最新 数据，日本的公共债务已达国内生产总值（GDP）的234.9%，大大超过希腊在欧债危机期间最高的比 重。日本预计将用于偿还债务利息的支出占到年度预算的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently experiencing a phase of cautious sentiment and narrow fluctuations, influenced by recent interest rate cuts and government bond supply dynamics [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite recent deposit rate cuts, the bond market has not reacted positively, as these cuts are viewed as a continuation of earlier rate reduction actions [2][3]. - From May 19 to May 23, the bond market showed a mixed performance, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 1 basis point to 1.69%, while the 3-year bond yield fell by 1 basis point to 1.49% [2]. - The issuance of long-term government bonds has been weak, with a notable decline in the bid-to-cover ratio for recent auctions, indicating reduced enthusiasm in the primary market [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - There is a significant mismatch between the growth rates of government bonds and bank liabilities, with government bond growth increasing from 17.0% to 20.7%, while bank liabilities only rose from 6.3% to 7.4% [3]. - The pressure on banks to absorb new government bond supply is expected to increase, leading to a potential reduction in their demand for bonds in the secondary market [3][4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The supply pressure in the bond market is likely to ease in June and July, with a projected increase in government bond maturities and a slowdown in new bond issuance [4]. - Analysts anticipate that the net issuance of government bonds will decrease significantly in the second half of the year, which could improve the supply-demand dynamics in the bond market [4]. - There is a possibility of a "bond bull" market re-emerging, driven by stable demand for fixed-income assets and a potential decline in interest rates [5].

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 绍翔 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 当作为曾经全球三大资产泡沫之一的日债，都出现了"销售"问题，这本身就是对全球债市变局的一种警示。 本周，20年期日债和美债 的"灾难性"拍卖，叠加美国众议院比较顺利地通过减税与支出法案，导致全球债市的动荡，日本和美国债市首当其冲。尽管有偶发因素， 但背后凸显的矛盾却越发明显，全球变局下债券逃不开的供需错配问题，而所有这些问题的交汇焦点就在美债（以及背后的美元）：无论 是4月中下旬贸易摩擦下的外资抛售"恐慌"，还是5月初新台币的暴涨背后对于亚洲资金减配美元资产的担忧。 我们在之前的报告里反复强调 美债问题会是特朗普2.0最大的"背刺"， 当前这个观点没变，在本篇报告中，我们会进一步结合特朗普的减 税和关税主线，给出美债等资产风险的分析框架。 首先说说对于全球变局的看法，对于广义的债务来说，有供给和需求两个角度： 贸易和地缘格局的重构本来应该意味着美国财政的相对紧缩、其他经济体财政更加积极，进而达成全球债务 ...

Core Insights - The credit bond market has shown unexpectedly optimistic performance, with significant gains surpassing those of interest rate bonds, particularly from May 19 to May 23, 2025 [9][24] - The strategy of focusing on weak-quality city investment bonds with a duration of 2-4 years has been widely adopted by institutions, with an extension to around 5 years observed in recent trading [10][24] - The absolute yield and credit spread protection for credit bonds are currently insufficient, indicating a cautious approach is warranted despite the market's enthusiasm [4][24] Credit Strategy Insights - The yield of AAA and AA+ medium-term notes decreased significantly, with 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, and 5Y yields down by 1.5BP, 0.4BP, 2.4BP, 2.8BP, and 5.2BP respectively during the observed period [9][11] - The performance of weak-quality city investment bonds in the 2-5 year range has been particularly strong, with declines in yields exceeding those of comparable medium-term notes [10][24] - The market for super long-term credit bonds has shown signs of improvement, with a notable increase in buying interest, especially for real estate bonds and weak-quality city investment bonds [21][24] Market Dynamics - The average transaction duration for credit bonds has lengthened, reflecting a shift towards a more optimistic market sentiment [18][24] - The proportion of transactions below valuation for super long-term credit bonds has improved, with a significant focus on real estate bonds, which have seen yield declines of over 20BP [21][24] - The current market conditions suggest that there is still room for exploration in city investment bonds with yields above 2.2%, which constitute about 10% of the public city investment bonds [24]

天量美债即将到期，"逃离美国2.0"是否继续？ 黄金避险属性再定价，债市风险风否继续助推？日债成全球"风暴眼"，美日空头是否尚有获利空间？日 债-美元资产传导链条全解析，解锁股债+汇市+贵金属操作策略；波动率交易窗口开启，捕捉市场脉冲 行情>> 相关链接 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 降息为何难振债市情绪 ——债市情绪面周报（5 月第 4 周） 报告日期： 2025-05-26 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：短期加强波段交易，待债市选择方向后右侧应对 债市短期难破震荡区间，存款利率调降后银行负债端压力有所提升，大行 资金融出依然偏少，存款流向非银机构促使"钱多"利好债市，而当前债市的 主要关注点可能仍在①5 月 PMI 等经济数据、②供给压力与③资金面松紧， 但超预期因素或趋势性行情较难出现，投资者仍需维持久期，低票息、资金贵 的环境下应加大波段交易的权重。 固收买方观点整体中性偏多。从当前市场买方观点来看，10 家偏多，18 家中性，1 家偏空，其中： ⚫ 国债期货：期货情绪升温 ...

Group 1 - iBoxx China USD bond investment-grade index rose by 0.05% while speculative-grade index fell by 0.04% [2] - The People's Bank of China announced a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for the first time since October 2024, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points [2] - In April, China's industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year [3] Group 2 - TPG plans to establish a 50 billion yuan fund to acquire 48 Wanda Plaza properties [24] - New City Development is planning to issue onshore bonds to raise 1.5 to 2 billion yuan [25] - Vanke Enterprises signed a loan agreement with Shenzhen Metro Group for 4.2 billion yuan [25] Group 3 - CIFI Holdings announced a debt restructuring plan involving seven bonds with a total principal of 10.06 billion yuan [25] - Kaisa Group reported that all conditions for its restructuring plan have been met [25] - Yuzhou Group announced a default event regarding its bonds due on May 27, 2025 [25]