Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a significant "duration extension" trend, particularly driven by public funds aggressively purchasing long-duration bonds, leading to a notable compression in credit spreads for bonds with maturities over five years [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Recent weeks have seen a clear trend of extending durations in the bond market, especially in the credit bond sector, which has outperformed the interest rate bond market [2]. - As of June 27, the duration of bond funds has increased from approximately 2.5 years at the beginning of June to over 2.7 years [3]. - The total scale of credit bond ETFs has surged to 214.7 billion yuan, marking a 50% increase since the end of May, with notable growth in specific ETFs [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the ongoing "bull market" in bonds, there are rising concerns about market overcrowding, with credit spreads nearing historical lows and leverage ratios approaching historical highs [5]. - Analysts express a generally optimistic outlook for the bond market, citing supportive fundamentals such as weak domestic demand and a favorable monetary policy stance from the central bank [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - It is recommended to maintain a focus on long-duration bonds to capitalize on the anticipated bull market following the quarter-end [7]. - Investors are advised to consider bonds with durations between 3 to 5 years, particularly those with higher yields, while remaining cautious of potential market volatility [8].

另一个是"资资产" 可能的再现。今年资产供给前置，一半以上的政府债 券净融资在上半年，如果不新加预算，政府债券净融资月均同比多增量将 从上半年 7000 亿左右下降到下半年的负值，同时实际利率上升抑制非政 府债券社融。因而下半年资产供给节奏将放缓。但资金供给充足，这决定 配置力量旺盛。居民持续增加存款、保险、理财、货基债基等低风险偏好 资产配置。而央行主动和被动的也会增加资金投放，一方面上半年同比多 增的财政存款会在 3 季度左右投放，另一方面，央行对流动性呵护增强， 5 月以来资金投放增加。如果后续央行开启国债买卖，那么市场将进一步 向资产"的方向演进。 证券研究报告 | 固定收益年度策略 gszqdatemark 2025 06 30 年 月 日 年度策略 踏着熟悉的节奏——2025 年债市中期策略 2025 年上半年债市大幅波动，外部扰动明显加大。24 年底利率开启快速 下行，这在 25 年初延续，10 年国债一度突破 1.6%的低位。而后随着资 金的收紧，以及春节之后银行抛券压力的上升，市场开始了大幅调整。10 年国债最高一度达到 1.9%附近，而仅 30bps 的调整幅度也是长债 2023 年以来最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF from Bosera has shown significant growth and liquidity in the market, becoming a popular choice among investors seeking yield in a low-return environment [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, the Bosera credit bond ETF was priced at 101.1 yuan, with a 3-month cumulative increase of 1.19%, ranking 2nd out of 4 comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has achieved a record high in size, reaching 116.46 billion yuan, and a total of 1.15 million shares, both ranking 2nd among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has demonstrated strong profitability, with a monthly profit percentage of 75.00% and a historical 100% probability of profit over a 3-month holding period [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Fund Flows - The Bosera credit bond ETF has seen a net inflow of 30.52 million yuan recently, with a total of 302 million yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days [4]. - The trading volume has been active, with an average daily transaction of 5.606 billion yuan over the past week, ranking first among comparable funds [3]. Group 3: Risk and Fee Structure - The ETF has a maximum drawdown of 0.89% since inception, with a recovery time of 26 days [4]. - The management fee is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [4]. - The tracking error for the ETF this year is 0.009%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance since Q4 2024, significantly outperforming the A-share market, but faces challenges such as pulse-like rebounds and concentration in a few sectors, making it difficult for investors to achieve excess returns. However, precise timing and understanding of market rhythms can lead to substantial gains [1][2]. Industry Rotation Context - The market has experienced several rounds of rebounds driven by macroeconomic factors, including fiscal policy shifts and the rise of AI technology. Key phases include: 1. The "924" policy shift led to a rally in non-bank and real estate sectors, focusing on total policy [1]. 2. The emergence of "DeepSeek" post-Spring Festival revalued AI-related tech and internet leaders, driven by industry trends [1]. 3. The tariff situation in April spurred growth in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, influenced by industry catalysts and liquidity [1][2]. Macro Environment Analysis - The current market dynamics are characterized by a combination of abundant liquidity and structural challenges, leading to index fluctuations and active structural trends. The macroeconomic backdrop includes: - Continued credit contraction in the private sector and limited fiscal stimulus, which restricts overall credit cycle expansion while supporting market stability [8][9]. - The emergence of new growth points, particularly in AI and new consumption sectors, which contribute to the active structural market [9][10]. Investment Strategy Insights - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors with stable or improving return on equity (ROE). Key insights include: - Stable returns are found in sectors like banking and utilities, which maintain consistent ROE, while growth opportunities lie in technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which have shown significant ROE recovery [18][19]. - The analysis of trading concentration, southbound capital flows, and valuation metrics is crucial for identifying sector rotation opportunities [22][23]. Trading and Positioning Dynamics - The analysis of trading dynamics reveals: - High trading concentration in new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, with recent declines in AI sector concentration [23][24]. - Southbound capital flows have favored new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating strong investor interest in these sectors [32][34]. - The increase in short positions in certain sectors suggests a shift in investor sentiment, highlighting the need for caution in trading strategies [36][37]. Valuation Considerations - Valuation analysis indicates that while high-dividend sectors are under scrutiny, technology and new consumption sectors are experiencing valuation recovery. Key points include: - The AH premium threshold is set at 125%, which serves as a benchmark for high-dividend stocks, while technology and new consumption sectors are aligning with their ROE [44][45].

Core Insights - The current market dynamics and investment strategies are influenced by macroeconomic factors, with a focus on minimizing errors and respecting market trends [1][2][4] - The investment philosophy emphasizes making sound purchasing decisions rather than merely acquiring "good assets" [3] - The integration of AI technology is enhancing research efficiency and decision-making processes within the investment framework [8][9] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The importance of macro analysis is highlighted, as any investment behavior detached from the macro context poses significant risks [2] - The investment approach is centered around a framework that combines various asset classes, aiming for a dynamic balance to optimize returns [4][5] - The philosophy of "less error" in investment decisions is compared to sports, where maintaining a high success rate in critical moments is essential [1][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a profound restructuring of supply and demand, leading to a shift in investment strategies [3] - The concept of "asset scarcity" is discussed, indicating that the demand side has more choices rather than a complete disappearance of assets [3] - The bond market is expected to exhibit a different pattern in 2025 compared to the previous year, with increased volatility [3] Group 3: AI Integration - AI is viewed as a tool to enhance cognitive efficiency rather than a replacement for human analysts, allowing researchers to focus on value-creating tasks [8][9] - The use of AI in generating high-accuracy meeting records and developing complex risk evaluation models is noted as a significant advancement [8] - AI's role in credit research is emphasized, with the ability to analyze vast amounts of data and produce comprehensive reports [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that convertible bonds with strong underlying stocks and high volatility are the most cost-effective options in the current market environment [2][17] - The market saw a significant increase in the convertible bond index, with a weekly rise of 2.08% and an average price increase of 4.54% [2][9] - The average conversion premium across different price ranges showed varied changes, indicating a shift in market sentiment and valuation [9][18] Group 2 - The report suggests that investors should avoid low-priced strategies in the convertible bond market and focus on high-volatility, strong underlying stocks for better returns [2][17] - It highlights the importance of adjusting positions based on risk tolerance, recommending a shift to lower volatility sectors for those with high withdrawal requirements [2][17] - The analysis indicates that the convertible bond market still has incremental capital inflow, benefiting from the profit-taking effect observed at the end of June [2][17]

Core Viewpoint - Xinwang Bank, a small yet beautiful example in the banking sector, is facing an asset shortage in 2024, similar to the entire consumer credit industry [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Xinwang Bank issued nearly 300 million yuan in dividends, marking the first dividend distribution since its establishment [3]. - The amount of loans and advances issued by Xinwang Bank increased by approximately 2 billion yuan, representing the lowest growth rate in recent years [4]. - The "buy-back financial assets" increased by over 6 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards lower-risk, lower-return assets as a strategy to balance risk and adjust asset structure [5]. Group 2: Asset Quality - The asset shortage is a common issue in the credit industry, particularly in consumer credit, but it is more accurately described as a shortage of quality assets [5]. - Xinwang Bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio reached a three-year low in 2024, despite a minimal decline, which is significant given the small growth in the denominator [5][6]. Group 3: Growth Opportunities - The next growth point for Xinwang Bank may lie in corporate loans, particularly targeting small and micro enterprises that traditional banks find hard to reach [6][7]. - Xinwang Bank has made strides in corporate loans in 2023, although growth in 2024 is limited, it still accounts for a significant portion of the increase [8]. - The bank's shareholders primarily come from the real economy, which presents both challenges and opportunities in leveraging these relationships for financial services [8]. Group 4: Strategic Focus - Xinwang Bank aims to maintain a steady development pace and reasonable operational scale while focusing resources on serving the real economy, promoting consumption upgrades, and supporting the development of small and micro enterprises [8].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a significant rally on June 25, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year and the ChiNext Index rising nearly 3%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 188.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 3,900 stocks rose in the market, indicating a broad-based rally [1] - Financial stocks were a major driver of this rally, with several stocks, including Guosheng Financial Holdings, hitting the daily limit. The four major banks (Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Construction Bank) also reached historical highs. This surge is attributed to improved economic recovery expectations and ample market liquidity, leading investors to favor financial stocks with stable performance and valuation advantages [1] Group 2 - AIA Group appointed Yu Hong as the new General Manager of AIA Life Insurance, with approval from the National Financial Regulatory Administration. Yu Hong, born in 1968, previously served as the General Manager of Ping An Life Insurance, overseeing daily operations before joining AIA [2] Group 3 - The total scale of credit bond ETFs surpassed 200 billion yuan for the first time as of June 23, marking it as one of the fastest-growing segments in the ETF market this year. This growth is driven by a shift in investor preference towards stable income assets, with the first batch of eight benchmark market-making products launched at the beginning of the year, leading to rapid scale expansion. Continuous policy support has also contributed to the improvement in product design, liquidity management, and trading mechanisms [3] - Credit bond ETFs are expected to become a core component of fixed-income investments due to their low volatility, low cost, and high liquidity, meeting the increasing demand for income-generating assets amid an "asset shortage" environment [3] Group 4 - CITIC Securities announced plans to issue the first broker-dealer technology innovation bond in the interbank bond market, with a basic issuance scale of 500 million yuan and an additional 500 million yuan in excess issuance rights. The bond has a five-year term, with the issuance date set for June 26, 2025. The funds raised will support various initiatives in the technology innovation sector, effectively expanding the issuance channels for broker-dealer technology innovation bonds [4] Group 5 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated a "wait-and-see" strategy during a congressional hearing on June 24, indicating that the Fed is in a position to wait before adjusting its policy stance based on economic developments. This statement is expected to stabilize market sentiment and reduce volatility due to policy uncertainty, while investors will likely focus on economic data to gauge future Fed policy directions [5]

6月25日，A股银行板块继续强势上涨，申万银行指数当日涨幅达到1.05%。板块内42只成份股中，28只 实现上涨。其中，宁波银行以3.01%的涨幅领跑，江苏银行和成都银行也表现突出。 更为亮眼的是，工商银行、农业银行、建设银行等多家银行股价创下历史新高。市场交投活跃，板块单 日成交额突破360亿元，招商银行以28.63亿元的成交额位居榜首，农业银行、江苏银行成交额紧随其 后。 自年初以来，银行板块的表现堪称A股市场中最为亮眼的板块。Wind数据显示，从1月1日至6月25日， 申万银行指数累计涨幅达到15.77%，这一涨幅不仅远超同期仅上涨0.64%的沪深300指数，更是在31个 申万一级行业中位居第一。 展望下半年，银行板块的股息魅力仍将是吸引防御性资金、提供基础支撑的核心力量。 A股银行板块延续年初以来的强势表现，6月25日申万银行指数（WI.801780）涨1.05%，工商银行、农 业银行等国有大行股价更是创下历史新高。 在低利率与资产荒的双重背景下，兼具高股息稀缺性与经营稳健性的银行股，正成为保险资金等长期资 本热捧的"避风港"，推动板块年内累计涨幅已超15%，领跑全市场。 市场观点认为，下半年银行板块 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF market has experienced unprecedented growth, with total scale surpassing 200 billion yuan, driven by a shift in investor preference towards stable income assets and supported by favorable policies [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Growth and Scale - As of June 23, the total scale of credit bond ETFs reached 204.68 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 57% of the entire bond ETF market [3]. - The initial launch of eight benchmark market-making products at the beginning of the year laid the foundation for this growth, with their combined initial issuance scale of 21.71 billion yuan now exceeding 10 billion yuan each [3]. - The Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark Market-Making Corporate Bond ETF has seen its scale grow from 3 billion yuan at the start of the year to over 20 billion yuan, contributing significantly to the overall growth of credit bond ETFs [3]. Group 2: Policy Support and Market Dynamics - Continuous policy support has been a driving force for the development of credit bond ETFs, including the inclusion of these products in the bond general repurchase pledge library [3]. - The announcement of the ability to conduct general pledge-style repurchase transactions for credit bond ETFs led to a significant increase in subscription volume, with the market value of newly listed corporate bond ETFs rising from 39.1 billion yuan to 64.9 billion yuan, a 66% increase [4]. Group 3: Product Characteristics and Investor Demand - Credit bond ETFs are characterized by low volatility, low cost, and high liquidity, making them an attractive option for investors seeking stable income assets in a market characterized by "asset scarcity" [2][5]. - The passive nature of bond funds has gained favor among institutions, leading to an expansion in the scale of credit bond ETFs as they offer a combination of lower risk and relatively stable returns [6]. Group 4: Performance and Cost Advantages - Credit bond ETFs have demonstrated robust long-term return capabilities, often outperforming actively managed credit bond funds in terms of returns while exhibiting lower volatility [8][9]. - The average management fee for credit bond ETFs is approximately 0.165%, with a total cost of around 0.22%, which is lower than the average fees for actively managed credit bond funds [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The demand for stable income assets is expected to continue rising, and credit bond ETFs are likely to become a preferred choice for more investors, with potential for further growth in scale [10]. - Investors are advised to select credit bond ETFs based on their specific needs, such as liquidity management or credit risk exposure, given the current market's limited variety of these products [11].