Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [2][4]. Core Insights - The first equity-type asset-backed securities (ABS) have been successfully issued, indicating a vibrant issuance market [5][13]. - The market for REITs is expected to continue to perform well due to the downward pressure on bond market interest rates and the anticipated entry of social security and pension funds, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of allocations in this sector [4][6]. Market Overview - As of the 17th week of 2025, the CSI REITs index closed at 858.24, up 6.62% year-on-year but down 0.53% month-on-month. The CSI REITs total return index stood at 1058.94, up 11.55% year-on-year but down 1.43% month-on-month [6][21]. - The trading volume in the REITs market reached 677 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23.32%, with a transaction value of 2.947 billion yuan, up 39.67% year-on-year [28][34]. Sector Performance - Weekly and monthly performance of various REITs sectors showed fluctuations: - Affordable housing REITs decreased by 2.15% weekly but increased by 3.44% monthly - Environmental, highway, industrial park, warehousing logistics, energy, and consumer REITs also experienced declines [40][57]. - The performance of the REITs market indicates a mixed trend, with some sectors showing resilience while others face challenges [40][58]. Upcoming Developments - There are currently 13 REITs funds awaiting listing, indicating ongoing activity in the issuance market [7][40].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of long-term special government bonds in China, amounting to 1.3 trillion yuan, is aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption, thereby strengthening the domestic economic cycle [2][3]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - This year, China will issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special government bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan compared to last year [2]. - The first issuance will focus on 20-year and 30-year bonds, starting on April 24 [2]. - Of the total, 800 billion yuan will support "two major" projects, while 500 billion yuan will be allocated to expand the "two new" policies [2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The early disclosure of bond issuance plans and rapid financing is intended to enhance expectations for economic improvement and stimulate consumption [2]. - In the first quarter, supported by the "two new" and "two major" policies, related consumer goods experienced double-digit growth, indicating progress in expanding domestic demand [2]. Group 3: Role of Government Bonds - Long-term special government bonds will enable more fiscal funds to promote consumption and expand domestic demand, converting private savings into effective demand to support economic growth [3]. - These bonds will also provide greater support for technological innovation and industrial development in "two major" construction projects, laying a solid foundation for high-quality development [3]. Group 4: Market Implications - The issuance of long-term special government bonds will increase the supply of safe assets in the market, alleviating the "asset shortage" issue in a low-interest-rate environment [3]. - China's government bonds, as high-grade securities, have the potential to become significant global safe assets, attracting international investors [3]. - As of April 15, foreign institutions have increased their holdings of Chinese bonds by over 270 billion yuan, reflecting a positive attitude towards the Chinese bond market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant demand for public REITs in China, particularly the upcoming issuance of the Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT, which has seen an unprecedented oversubscription rate of 222.64 times, indicating strong investor interest in high-dividend, stable assets amid an asset shortage environment [1][2]. Group 1: REITs Market Performance - The Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT is set to raise approximately 1.367 billion yuan, with its underlying assets located in Suzhou's largest "talent rental housing" community, supporting the local rental housing market [2][3]. - The China Securities REITs Total Return Index reached a two-year high, reflecting a 16% increase from its low in December 2022, driven by strong economic data and investor confidence [4]. - The trading volume of the REITs market surged to 640 million units, a year-on-year increase of 149.03%, with transaction value reaching 2.85 billion yuan, up 185.57% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The REITs sector is expected to continue attracting investment due to its high dividend yield and relatively low risk, especially as social security and pension funds are anticipated to enter the market [5]. - The performance of various REITs segments has shown divergence, with rental housing and consumer REITs benefiting from stable fundamentals, while industrial parks and logistics REITs face declining valuations due to lower rental rates and occupancy expectations [5]. Group 3: Industry Growth and Development - The public REITs market has expanded significantly, with 66 public REITs currently in the market and a total issuance scale of 173 billion yuan, compared to just 11 REITs and 36.4 billion yuan at the end of 2021 [6]. - The continuous development of the REITs market is seen as beneficial for the national agenda of risk prevention, deleveraging, stabilizing investment, and addressing shortfalls, while also enhancing the conversion of savings into investments [6][7].

另一方面，有观点认为，前期"资产荒"逻辑也将出现边际变化，一是超长期特别国债以及专项债供给在 二季度大概率落地，二是负债端面临防空转的扰动。特别国债发行之前降准概率较大，这是比较好的止 盈时点。二季度债市出现调整的概率提升，不过中期看多逻辑未变。 每经记者 任飞 每经编辑 赵云 公募基金一季报持续披露，不少FOF基金也已公布业绩。一些产品的业绩领先，季内仍出现规模减少和 净赎回的情况。 当然，这与目前的资产配置端有关，许多领域都面临着配置资产不足的情况，债券、股票等大类在市场 中存在分歧，不少资金的风险偏好持续收紧。 部分绩优FOF一季度出现净赎回 以同泰优选配置3个月（混合型FOF）为例，该基金今年一季度中，A份额业绩录得5.55%，C份额录得 5.44%。Wind统计显示，其A份额业绩在所有同类型基金当中排名第五，规模却在季内出现下降。 一季报显示，A份额遭净赎回23.78万份，C份额遭净赎回506.70万份。基金经理刘坚在季报中提到，复 杂的内外部环境依然存在，期待宏观政策在逆周期调节方面发挥积极作用。 平安盈诚积极配置6个月也是如此。一季报显示，该基金A类份额实现季内净值增长率6.41%，C类份额 净 ...

文丨张涛（中国建设银行金融市场部，文章仅代表作者观点） 自美元成为主导全球贸易和金融市场的核心货币，即国际货币的美元体系确立以来，"我们的货币，你们的问题"就成为 了国际金融市场的金科铁律——市场一旦面临巨大不确定和动荡时，跨境资金就倾向将风险资产转换为安全性更高的美 国国债，美债价格会随之上涨（收益率下行），而当市场对流动性也开始担忧时，还会进一步将非美货币转为美元，相 应美元指数也多会上涨。换言之，在以往多次市场动荡和危机时，非美经济体多出现股债汇三杀——股指下跌、本币国 债收益率上行、本币对美元的汇率贬值。 但这一次却不一样！ 自4月2日特朗普宣布对其所有贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"以来，美国出现了股债汇三杀，标普500指数最低跌至4948点， 较4月1日收盘价下跌12%，10年期美国国债收益率最高上行至4.59%，较4月1日上行46BPs，美元指数更是跌破了100， 较4月1日的收盘价下跌了5%。 | 美国标准管尔500指数历史数据 MASK | | | | | 美国十年期国债收益事历史数据 | | | | | 美元指数历史数据 HARR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

桂浩明(市场资深人士) 国内的公募REITs起步不是很早，在2021年推出后由于产品稀缺，一度在二级市场被炒作，价格的大起 大落对其发展也带来了某些不利的影响，好在经过这几年的调整，公募REITs不但在制度建设上有了很 大的进展，其运行环境也有相应的改善，实现了快速发展。 在2023年共发行了5只公募REITs产品，而在2024年这个数字达到了29只，今年前两个月就发行了4只。 与此同时，公募REITs在资本市场上也获得了较高的认同，截止到上周五，表征公募REITs走势的中证 REITs全收益指数今年的涨幅已经超过11.38%，是同期证券市场上表现最好的指数之一。 公募REITs的快速发展，不仅仅是丰富了国内资本市场的产品供给，为投融资双方搭建了新的联系桥 梁，更是在建设多层次资本市场、金融支持实体经济方面发挥了很好的作用，因此意义重大。 近两年来，受多方面因素的影响，A股市场的IPO节奏有所放缓，同时股权融资的重点也是向硬科技企 业倾斜。这样一来，从事传统基础产业的企业进行股权融资的环境就不是特别好。这种状况其实也不是 国内独有，在海外成熟市场，传统基础产业的企业搞股权融资也是困难重重。此时一般的解决方法是 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the insurance industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The insurance sector is currently facing challenges due to declining long-term interest rates and an "asset shortage," which necessitates a shift towards equity investments to enhance returns [13][22] - Regulatory changes are encouraging insurance companies to increase their equity allocations, particularly in high-dividend and long-term stock investments [68] - The report highlights the potential for excess returns in the life insurance sector, with specific recommendations for companies such as China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance [3] Summary by Sections 1. Current Status of Insurance Assets - The insurance industry is experiencing a mismatch in asset and liability durations, with average liability duration exceeding 12 years while asset duration is around 6 years, leading to significant annual mismatches [14] - The proportion of bonds in insurance investments has increased significantly, with bonds now accounting for 50.3% of total assets, while equity investments make up 20.3% [28][33] 2. Future Directions - The report suggests a strategy of extending bond durations and engaging in trading to enhance returns, while focusing on high-dividend and long-term stock investments for equity assets [42][68] - Insurance companies are advised to optimize their liability costs and durations to better align with low-interest rate environments [22] 3. Quantitative Analysis - The report estimates that the insurance industry will allocate approximately 7.7 trillion yuan in 2025, with a focus on high-dividend assets expected to reach 1.16 trillion yuan [5][50] - It is projected that annual new equity investment funds from insurance companies could range from 300 billion to 800 billion yuan [5][26] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing allocations to high-dividend assets and long-term stock investments, as well as diversifying into ETFs and precious metals to enhance investment returns [4][68]

| | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】 | C E H F . | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | F | 唐策略示 | | | | | 发布日期:2025/04 | 研究院:李泽矩 | | | | | 从业资格号:F0251925 | | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | | | | IF与IH的4月合约贴水大幅升高,加上国家队护盘方向主要在此,可考虑 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 进行短多,交易反弹。 | | | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | 宏观金融 | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期调整后料进入震荡,长期仍有上涨空间。 | | | 日 银 | | 关税政策超预期,银价相对承压,短期或偏弱震荡。 | | | 铜 | 農汤 | 全球贸易摩擦升级,市场避险情绪升温,观望为主。 | | | 铝 氧化铝 | ○震荡 震荡 | 全球贸易摩擦升级,市场避险情绪升温,观望为主。由阳气 国内氧化铝产能持续释放,供应过剩格局延续,价格承压。 | | | | | 特朗普对等关税大超预期叠加基本面 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Despite the recent market fluctuations caused by quarter - end liquidity, the medium - to long - term allocation value of credit bonds remains intact. High - grade, long - duration credit bonds show strong resilience, and the narrowing decline in wealth management scale indicates stabilizing market sentiment. The supply - demand pattern of the credit bond market is relatively stable, and the yield - mining potential of credit bonds is prominent. The core logic of credit spread compression still holds, and investors are advised to focus on medium - to high - grade urban investment bonds and industrial bonds in stable industries [2][15] Summary by Directory 1. Credit Bond Configuration Value Unchanged by Quarter - End Disturbance - High - grade, long - term credit bond varieties have significant gains. From March 24th to 28th, the total full - price index of national bonds rose 0.25%, outperforming credit bonds (0.11%) and financial bonds (0.09%). Among them, the full - price index of national bonds over 10 years rose 0.72%, and the index of AAA credit bonds over 10 years rose 1.02% [16] - The scale of wealth management products decreased seasonally, but the decline was narrower year - on - year. In the 13th week of 2025, the scale change was - 0.49 trillion yuan, smaller than - 1.41 trillion yuan in 2024 and - 1.10 trillion yuan in 2023 [19] 2. Market Trading Structure and Selling Pressure - At the end of the month, the selling pressure was relieved. The proportion of GVN in interest - rate bonds dropped from 61.35% on March 17th to 32.96% on March 26th, and then rebounded to 48.54% on March 27th. The proportion of GVN in credit bonds was relatively stable, falling from 39.90% on March 17th to 19.20% on March 20th and rising to 31.48% on March 28th [24] 3. Coupon Advantage of Bonds - Brokerage bonds and insurance bonds have relative coupon advantages. This week, short - end bond yields generally declined. For example, the yields of 1 - month urban investment bonds and medium - short - term notes decreased by 3 bp and 1 bp to 1.97% and 2.01% respectively, and the yield of secondary capital bonds decreased significantly by 9 bp to 1.92% [27] 4. Credit Spread Compression Logic - The core logic supporting credit spread compression still holds. Against the backdrop of the "asset shortage", credit bonds are an important choice for capital allocation. The debt resolution work has reduced the credit risk of urban investment platforms. In the second quarter, the supply pressure of credit bonds eases, and the allocation demand is expected to pick up. 3 - year AA+ urban investment bonds are more cost - effective, and for industrial bonds, defensive industries such as public utilities and transportation are recommended [45] 5. Institutional Behavior and Allocation Strategies - Funds and money market funds have continuously increased their holdings in the past two weeks, and insurance companies have allocated long - end local government bonds. Funds have net - bought 305.42 billion yuan in 1 - year credit bonds, 210.95 billion yuan in 3 - year credit bonds, and 143.82 billion yuan in 5 - year credit bonds. Insurance companies have net - bought 275.69 billion yuan in 20 - 30 - year local government bonds and 22.79 billion yuan in 7 - 10 - year credit bonds. Money market funds have net - bought 2470.26 billion yuan in inter - bank certificates of deposit [39] - It is recommended that investors deploy along three main lines: seize the interest - rate elasticity of 3 - year AA+ urban investment bonds, explore mis - valued opportunities in non - bank varieties such as brokerage subordinated bonds and insurance capital bonds, and pay attention to the net - value restoration opportunities of wealth management subsidiaries' products with a low break - even rate. It is necessary to be vigilant about the economic recovery expectation, and the duration strategy should be moderately flexible [9]

| | | 唐第郎示 1 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 研究院:李泽矩 | | 发布日期:2025/04. | | | 投资咨询号:Z0000116 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 多头 H与IF品种较为稳健:IM注意波动加大的风险,综合结合期权进行风 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 险对冲。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期料高位宽幅震荡调整,长期仍有上涨空间。 | | | 白银 | 農 汤 | 短期料高位宽幅震荡。 | | | 铜 | 震荡 | 关税阴霾笼罩,叠加高铜价抑制下游需求,铜价存在回调风险。 | | | 铝 | い震荡 | 国内电解铝现货进一步下滑,但短期价格缺乏驱动,价格震荡运行。 | | | 氧化铝 | 震荡 | 国内氧化铝产能持续释放,供应过剩格局延续,价格承压。但盘面跌破成 | | | | | 本线,短期预计跌势放缓。 | | | | | 加工费上 ...