Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Tokyo stock market rebounded due to expectations of progress in trade negotiations between China and the United States following a phone call between the two leaders on June 5 [1] - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 187.12 points, closing at 37,741.61 points, with a gain of 0.50%, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index increased by 12.86 points, closing at 2,769.33 points, with a gain of 0.47% [1] - The market sentiment was supported by the confirmation of a second round of ministerial talks on tariffs and an agreement on mutual visits between the leaders of China and the U.S. [1] Group 2 - On June 6, all sectors in the Tokyo Stock Exchange, except for three (Aquaculture and Agriculture, Glass and Ceramics Products, and Fiber Products), experienced gains, with steel, construction, and machinery sectors leading the increases [2] - The weakening of the yen against the dollar during the trading hours also provided support to the stock market [1] - Despite the overall positive movement, the Tokyo stock market showed limited enthusiasm for aggressive buying due to weak U.S. employment data released on June 5, which led to declines in major U.S. stock indices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose 0.61% to $9,707.5/ton, SHFE copper up 0.58% to 78,570 yuan/ton. US trade deficit in April narrowed 55.5%, but jobless claims rose. LME copper stocks fell, Comex increased, and SHFE declined. Demand slowed due to the off - season. Sino - US trade conflict eased, and LME de - stocking supported prices. Copper prices face a directional choice, with resistance at 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended weakly, AO2509 down 1.17% to 2,953 yuan/ton. Shanghai aluminum was strong, AL2507 up 0.1% to 20,075 yuan/ton. Spot alumina prices fell, and upstream costs eased. Alumina production resumed, and the supply shortage improved. Aluminum demand had structural resilience, and the US tariff hike provided short - term support [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.75% to $15,445/ton, Shanghai nickel up 0.28% to 122,060 yuan/ton. LME and SHFE stocks decreased. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless - steel demand was weak, and new - energy demand was also sluggish. The market was in a short - term oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On June 5, 2025, the price of flat - water copper dropped 85 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased 55 yuan/ton. LME stocks fell 3,350 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased 246 tons, and social inventory increased 1.4 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead rose 70 yuan/ton, and LME stocks increased 1,100 tons, while the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased 1,928 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On June 5, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai quotes declined. LME stocks fell 2,025 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased 16,856 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On June 5, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel dropped 375 yuan/ton. LME stocks decreased 900 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts fell 48 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price dropped 0.2%, LME stocks increased 875 tons, and social inventory decreased 0.09 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price rose 1.5%, LME stocks decreased 160 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased 338 tons [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [6][7][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][47]. 3.3 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: Master of Science, Director of Non - ferrous Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, Senior Precious Metals Researcher, Intermediate Gold Investment Analyst, Excellent Metal Analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Best Industrial Futures Analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. With over a decade of commodity research experience, he has published many articles and been interviewed by multiple media. His team won industry awards [50]. - **Wang Heng**: Master of Finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, Non - ferrous Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [50]. - **Zhu Xi**: Master of Science from the University of Warwick, UK, Non - ferrous Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [51].

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won is expected to strengthen due to optimistic trade sentiments amid easing US-China trade tensions [1] Group 1 - DBS Bank analyst Chang Wei Liang indicates that the results of the South Korean presidential election may lead to strong fiscal support measures in the future [1] - The USD/KRW exchange rate is projected to weaken, potentially approaching 1350.00 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The drought situation in the U.S. Midwest is gradually easing, which is beneficial for the growth of new season crops, although there are concerns about warm and dry weather affecting recently planted soybeans [1] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market - As of the week ending May 29, U.S. old crop soybean export sales were 194,300 tons, close to the lower end of market expectations [1] - New crop sales were only 3,500 tons, indicating a lack of significant overseas demand [1] - The market is optimistic about U.S.-China trade relations, which could lead to increased imports of U.S. agricultural products, alleviating soybean supply concerns [1] Group 2: Argentine Soybean Harvest - Argentina has completed 89% of its soybean harvest, an increase of 4% from the previous week [1] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its production forecast at 50 million tons, slightly above the USDA's estimate of 49 million tons [1] Group 3: Malaysian Palm Oil Production - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.07% month-on-month from May 1 to 31, with peninsula production up by 4.05% and East Malaysia production up by 1.90% [1] - April export volume rose by 24.6%, while March production increased by 17.66% [1] Group 4: Futures Market Trends - On Thursday, CBOT soybean futures rose moderately, closing about 0.5% higher, reaching a one-week high due to optimism in U.S.-China trade relations [1] - CBOT soybean oil futures experienced mixed results, closing about 0.3% lower due to weak export sales [1] - Domestic and international palm oil futures are experiencing narrow fluctuations due to increased production, while crude oil prices stabilize, creating a favorable atmosphere for oilseeds [1]

Core Insights - A recent survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in China indicates that despite the operational pressures from the Sino-U.S. trade tensions, the majority of American companies do not plan to exit the Chinese market [1] - No companies reported intentions to relocate production back to the United States [1] Group 1 - The survey highlights the resilience of American businesses in China amid ongoing trade disputes [1] - The findings suggest a commitment to the Chinese market despite external pressures [1]

特朗普在自己的社交媒体上表示"我们进行了一次非常有意义的磋商。通话持续了一个半小时，达成了 对两国非常积极的结论"。关于稀土出口管制的问题，他提到"（问题）应该没有了"。据中方称，特朗 普表示"美方欢迎中国留学生来美学习"…… 美国总统特朗普与中国国家主席习近平6月5日进行了电话磋商。双方讨论了中国对稀土的出口管制问题 等，确认将尽快围绕关税政策举行第二轮中美部长级磋商。 中国外交部及特朗普自身披露了这一消息。中国对两位领导人的电话磋商进行正式发表属于特朗普1月 20日第二次上台以来首次。中国外交部称，此次是应约同美国总统特朗普通电话。 特朗普在自己的社交媒体上表示"我们进行了一次非常有意义的磋商。通话持续了一个半小时，达成了 对两国非常积极的结论"。关于稀土出口管制的问题，他提到"（问题）应该没有了"，但没有透露详细 内容。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 据中国外交部发表的内容，双方在通话中还提及了特朗普政府宣布的部分中国留学生签证被取消的问 题。特朗普表示"美方欢迎中国留学生来美学习"。 中美两国政府于5月10日至11日在瑞士举行了第一轮部长级磋商，达成了相互降低115%加征关税 ...

马棕油期价周线料四连涨，棕榈油出口激增，中美贸易关系改善预期，市场能否持续看涨？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 6 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 进口到港节奏，海关通关检 验，油厂开工节奏，备货需求 豆油 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 美国关税政策，美豆油库 存，生柴需求，国内原料供 应节奏，油厂库存 棕榈 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Reports - Rapeseed oil contract 2509 may test the lower support platform in the short term [2] - Soybean meal may fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] - Corn futures prices will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of new wheat listing and weather changes [4] - Copper prices show signs of breaking away from the moving - average system, and attention should be paid to its effectiveness for defense [5] - Carbonate lithium contract 2507 may fluctuate weakly, and short positions can be taken on rallies [6][7] - Steel is starting to repair its valuation, and a short - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [8] - Coking coal and coke may rebound from oversold levels at low positions due to news disturbances [9] - Iron ore 2509 will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and traders are reminded to be cautious about investment risks [10] - WTI crude oil will mainly fluctuate around $60 - $65 per barrel [11] - Attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound with improved sentiment [12] - PVC futures prices will oscillate at a low level with a still - weak fundamental situation [13] - Soda ash futures prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term [14] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Rapeseed Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Dongguan Zhongliang, Dongguan, is 9,270 yuan/ton (converted as OI09 + 120), up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - **Market Analysis**: Domestic rapeseed is about to be listed. Near - month imported rapeseed supply is abundant, while far - month supply is tight. Downstream demand is neutral, and inventories may remain high in the short and medium term [2] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: Spot prices in Zhangjiagang are 2,770 yuan/ton, Tianjin 2,850 yuan/ton, Rizhao 2,790 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 2,780 yuan/ton [3] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US trade has reached a phased agreement, but long - term contradictions remain. Tariffs and weather drive international soybean prices. In China, soybean supply is recovering, and the supply pressure of soybean meal is emerging. Downstream procurement is weak, and inventories are slowly accumulating [3] Corn - **Spot Information**: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2,204 yuan/ton; in North China and Huanghuai, it is 2,423 yuan/ton. The purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2,270 - 2,300 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Analysis**: Abroad, good weather in US corn - growing areas eases concerns, but Sino - US trade may increase import pressure. Domestically, there is a supply shortage during the grain - transition period. Wheat may replace corn in feed use, and downstream demand is weak [4] Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,290 - 78,540 yuan, down 700 yuan. The import copper ore index is - 43.56, up 0.72 [5] - **Market Analysis**: US economic data and political factors affect the possible interest - rate cut path. Global trade frictions continue. Domestic policies support the market. Raw material issues persist, and copper inventories are declining [5] Carbonate Lithium - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%) is 60,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade (99.2%) is 59,150 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [6] - **Market Analysis**: Cost pressure is increasing, ore prices are falling, and inventories are high. Supply capacity utilization is above average, and demand is differentiated. Phosphoric acid iron - lithium batteries and ternary batteries are shrinking [6] Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,090 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 83.56%, social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [8] - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a lower valuation. Policy supports the real - estate industry. Raw material prices are weak, and inventory levels are low [8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 337.38 million tons, and coke inventory is 246.10 million tons [9] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is low due to steel mill production cuts, and inventories are slightly increasing. The average profit per ton of coke is approaching the break - even point [9] Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 97.2, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 735 yuan, and Australian powder ore (62% Fe) is 737 yuan [10] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments are falling, Brazilian shipments are rising, and port inventories are decreasing. Domestic steel mill demand is weak, and overseas demand is differentiated [10] Crude Oil - **Spot Information**: No specific spot price information provided - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ production decisions affect supply. OPEC has lowered global demand growth forecasts, and trade disputes raise concerns about demand [11] Rubber - **Spot Information**: The price of domestic full - latex rubber is 13,500 yuan/ton, Thai smoked three - piece rubber is 20,000 yuan/ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 14,950 yuan/ton, and 20 - grade rubber is 14,100 yuan/ton [12] - **Market Analysis**: Trade - war tariffs and oversupply drag down rubber prices. After the bearish factors are realized, the price will rebound. Supply is abundant with full - scale tapping in domestic and Southeast Asian regions [12] PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,680 yuan/ton, and ethylene - based PVC is 5,000 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [13] - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization is increasing, demand from downstream enterprises is still weak, and social inventories are decreasing [13] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,373.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [14] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is increasing with a higher start - up rate and production. Inventories are slightly increasing, and demand is average, with downstream resistance to high - priced goods [14]

Group 1: Port Performance - Multiple A-share listed port companies reported an increase in container throughput in May, while Guangzhou Port experienced a slight decline in cargo throughput [1] - Ningbo Port projected a container throughput of 4.53 million TEUs in May, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and a cargo throughput of 107.6 million tons, up 7.7% [1] - Guangzhou Port's May container throughput is expected to reach 2.309 million TEUs, a 4.3% increase year-on-year, while cargo throughput is projected at 50.175 million tons, a slight decline of 0.3% [1] - Beibu Gulf Port reported a cargo throughput of 30.8633 million tons in May, a year-on-year increase of 6.43%, with container throughput reaching 881.3 thousand TEUs, up 10.79% [1] Group 2: Shipping Rates and Market Conditions - The China Export Container Freight Index rose by 0.9% year-on-year as of May 30, with the East America route increasing by 9.3% and the West America route by 4% [2] - Short-term demand for shipping on American routes remains strong due to tariff policy fluctuations and uncertain trade environments, but specific demand levels require further monitoring [2] - Nearly half of the port-listed companies reported a year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1, with Shanghai Port Group, Qingdao Port, and Ningbo Port showing growth rates of approximately 6%, 6.51%, and 4.54% respectively [2] Group 3: Operational Challenges - Beibu Gulf Port's management noted that the company faced challenges in revenue growth due to changes in cargo source structure and reduced high-value import/export trade [3] - Ningbo Port's management reported a 10.2% year-on-year increase in container throughput for the first quarter, ranking it among the top three global container ports [3] - The impact of the U.S. government's tariff policies on trade has led to a decrease in container throughput on American routes, while other routes continue to see growth [3]