Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.70%, down 168 points, closing at 23,866 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 2.08% [1] - International gold prices reached new highs due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, benefiting companies like Zhaojin Mining, which rose over 4%, and Chifeng Jilong Gold, which increased by 13% [1] - Shipping stocks rose amid ongoing crises in the Red Sea, with COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation gaining over 11% [1] - United Energy Group surged over 21%, focusing its oil and gas operations in Pakistan, Iraq, and Egypt [1] - Dalipe Holdings saw a mid-session increase of over 14%, as it is a manufacturer of oil-specific pipes with potential in the MENA market [1] - Shandong Molong experienced a significant rise of over 71%, driven by a surge in oil prices exceeding 10% due to safe-haven demand [1] - AVIC Aircraft rose by 4.96%, as geopolitical tensions catalyzed a reevaluation of the military industry, with the company positioned in both military and civilian aviation markets [1] - Beihai Kangcheng-B surged over 36% after receiving approval for the market launch of injectable Vilazodone [1] - Dongfang Electric increased by over 4%, showcasing multiple solar storage achievements at SNEC and signing agreements for further collaboration on solar storage projects [1] Group 2 - Sunny Optical fell by 3.82%, with May smartphone lens shipments declining by 5.2% year-on-year, as institutions predict a slowdown in smartphone sales growth [2] - Innovative drug concept stocks retreated across the board, with biotech companies facing a wave of equity placements, as institutions suggest that the initial phase of valuation recovery is largely complete [2] - Connoisseur-B dropped by 8%, while BGI Genomics fell by 10.7%, and China National Pharmaceutical Group decreased by 5.27% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has become a focal point for global investors amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and fluctuating monetary policies, with key factors influencing gold prices identified to assist investors in navigating the complex economic landscape [1]. Factors Driving Gold Price Increases - The depreciation of the US dollar reduces the holding cost of gold, attracting global buyers [3]. - Federal Reserve interest rate cuts lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to increased investment in this non-yielding asset [3]. - Heightened geopolitical tensions, such as wars and banking crises, drive safe-haven investments into gold [3]. - Economic recession or increased uncertainty prompts investors to prefer gold as a safe asset [3]. - Rising inflation expectations position gold as an effective hedge against inflation, drawing in more funds [3]. - Increased demand for safe-haven assets due to unexpected events like pandemics or natural disasters [3]. - Global monetary policy easing, including rate cuts or quantitative easing, releases liquidity that partially flows into the gold market [3]. - The onset of financial crises enhances the appeal of gold's value preservation function [3]. - Strong demand during market consumption peaks from jewelry, industrial, and investment sectors boosts gold prices [3]. - Weak US economic indicators, such as employment and inflation, raise concerns about the economy, thereby increasing gold demand [3]. Factors Leading to Gold Price Declines - The appreciation of the US dollar attracts capital inflows, diminishing gold's appeal [4]. - Federal Reserve interest rate hikes increase the returns on risk-free assets, leading to decreased demand for gold [4]. - Easing geopolitical tensions reduce safe-haven buying pressure on gold [5]. - Strong economic recovery raises risk appetite, diverting funds to higher-yielding assets like stocks and real estate [5]. - Declining inflation expectations weaken the demand for gold as an inflation hedge [5]. - Reduced safe-haven sentiment due to diminished impacts from pandemics or disasters leads to a rational market return [5]. - Tightening monetary policies, including rate hikes or balance sheet reductions, withdraw liquidity and pressure gold prices [5]. - Resolution of financial crises leads to capital exiting gold investments [5]. - An oversupply of gold, such as central bank sales or increased mining output, can suppress prices [5]. - Positive US economic indicators strengthen expectations for interest rate hikes, negatively impacting gold prices [5]. Gold Market Outlook for 2025 - The international situation remains volatile, with the Federal Reserve slowing its rate hike pace while inflation data stays concerning, and pressures in the European and American banking systems are not fully resolved, indicating that gold still holds certain investment value [7]. Key Indicators for Gold Investors - Monitoring Federal Reserve policy changes, including interest rate decisions and FOMC meeting minutes [8]. - Keeping an eye on US employment and inflation data, such as NFP, CPI, and PCE [8]. - Observing significant global geopolitical events, including wars, terrorist attacks, and sudden financial incidents [8]. - Tracking central bank gold purchasing behaviors, particularly from emerging market central banks [8]. - Gold is viewed as a "hard currency" that reflects deep dynamics within the global economic and financial system, with investment strategies suggested for both conservative and aggressive investors [8].

Group 1 - International oil prices and spot gold have surged significantly due to disturbances in the Middle East, with crude oil prices rising by 8% and spot gold reaching $3420 per ounce [1] - Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures both increased by over 8%, with WTI reaching a high of $74.35 per barrel, the highest since February 3, and Brent hitting $75.28 per barrel, the highest since April 2 [1] - Domestic energy futures opened sharply higher, with fuel and crude oil futures hitting the limit up, and low-sulfur fuel oil rising by over 8% [1] Group 2 - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on gold's future performance, citing uncertainties from tariffs and geopolitical factors that may drive safe-haven investments into gold, alongside ongoing central bank gold purchases and a long-term cycle of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - In contrast, analysts are cautious about oil prices in the second half of the year, noting that while recent market sentiment has improved, long-term oil prices are expected to trend downward due to rising downstream product inventories indicating short-term oversupply [3] - The geopolitical situation is likely to provide only temporary support for prices, with Brent crude expected to face resistance above $70 per barrel, lacking the momentum for a sustained breakthrough to new highs [3]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计全国110家洗煤厂样本：开工率 57.36%较上期降3.23%；日均产量47.79万吨减3.67万吨；原煤 库存336.13万吨增8.72万吨；精煤库存251.47万吨增6.41万 吨。评：炼焦煤市场延续偏弱下行，煤焦基本面变化不大，依 然是偏弱的格局，铁水见顶回落，钢材淡季逐步到来，成材消 费会季节性走弱，后续或形成负反馈继续打压原料价格，但焦 煤绝对价格已跌至近年来最低水平，部分煤矿已陷入亏损，继 续下跌空间有限，后续下跌斜率或将放缓，继续缓慢探底。 【短评-原油】据央视新闻消息，当地时间6月12日，美国 总统特朗普表示，以色列对伊朗的袭击"很有可能发生"，但 他不会称之为"迫在眉睫的袭击"。 特朗普表示，他更倾向于 避免与伊朗发生冲突，并就其核计划达成和平解决方案；美国 驻以色列大使赫卡比12日在接受媒体采访时表示，如果没有美 国的批准，以色列不太可能攻击伊朗；伊朗高级官员:美国人员 撤离并不是(受到)威胁的信号。评：市场在等待伊朗和美国6月 15日恢复谈判。整体上，地缘政治，原油低库存及美国产量增 速下降对短期油价有支撑。长期关注OPEC+产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - PP2509 rose 0.22% to close at 6,969 yuan/ton. On the supply side, this week's PP production increased by 2.36% month-on-month to 757,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.63% month-on-month to 78.64%. On the demand side, the average operating rate of PP downstream industries decreased by 0.04% month-on-month to 49.87%. In terms of inventory, this week's PP commercial inventory decreased by 4.04% month-on-month to 786,000 tons, with little pressure. Recently, with the launch of new production capacity and the restart of shutdown devices, the pressure on the supply side of the PP industry has increased. It is the off-season for downstream industries, the demand continues to be weak, and the downstream operating rate maintains a slight downward trend. Overseas demand declines seasonally, making it difficult to ease the domestic supply-demand contradiction. Recently, international oil prices have strengthened due to macro-positive factors and the deterioration of geopolitical situations, enhancing the cost support for oil-based production. In the short term, PP2509 is expected to show a volatile trend. Pay attention to the support around 6,930 and the resistance around 7,020 on the daily K-line [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polypropylene was 6,969 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the closing price of the January contract was 6,918 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 6,909 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the closing price of the September contract was 6,969 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The trading volume of polypropylene (PP) was 208,464 lots, a decrease of 15,731 lots; the open interest was 490,786 lots, a decrease of 10,626 lots. The buy order volume of the top 20 holders was 423,197 lots, a decrease of 10,118 lots; the sell order volume was 491,914 lots, a decrease of 6,769 lots; the net buy order volume was -68,717 lots, a decrease of 3,349 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of polypropylene PP was 7,560 lots, an increase of 2,500 lots [2]. Spot Market - The CFR Southeast Asia middle price of PP (fiber/injection molding) was 904 US dollars/ton; the CFR Far East middle price of PP (homopolymer injection molding) was 859 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton. The duty-paid self-pickup price of PP (drawn grade) in Zhejiang was 7,140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR China price of propylene was 751 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price of propane in the Far East was 560 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. The FOB price of naphtha in Singapore was 61.66 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.25 US dollars/barrel; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 571.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of polypropylene (PP) in petrochemical enterprises was 77.01%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The average operating rate of polypropylene was 50.01%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points; the operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points; the operating rate of injection molding was 56.09%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points; the operating rate of BOPP was 60.41%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points; the operating rate of PP pipes was 36.13%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points; the operating rate of tape master rolls was 50.74%, unchanged; the operating rate of PP non-woven fabrics was 37.03%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the operating rate of CPP was 57.38%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [2]. Option Market - The 20-day historical volatility of polypropylene was 7.41%, a decrease of 2.41 percentage points; the 40-day historical volatility was 9.09%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at-the-money put options for polypropylene was 10.12%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money call options was 10.12%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From June 6th to 12th, the domestic polypropylene production was 757,700 tons, a 2.36% increase from the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate was 78.64%, a 1.63% increase from the previous period. - From June 6th to 12th, the average operating rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 49.87%. - As of June 11th, the total commercial inventory of polypropylene in China was 786,000 tons, a 4.04% decrease from the previous period [2].

若后市市场上破3399.00点位则可介入多单，上方目标可看向3409.00-3419.00美元/盎司。（止损为5.000美元/盎 司空间） 现货白银市场 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间36.060-36.400，操作上可在这个区间内 高抛低吸。 若市场价格跌破36.060美元/盎司的支撑位，可择机建立空单头寸，并将下方目标价位设定为35.700-35.300美元/ 盎司。 亚洲早盘策略： 现货黄金市场 小时图目前处于主升情绪，短线15分钟图处于震荡阶段，震荡区间3372.00-3399.00，操作上可在这个区间高抛 低吸。 若后市市场下破3372.00点位则可介入空单，下方目标可看向3362.00-3352.00美元/盎司。 若市场成功上破36.400美元/盎司的阻力位，则可果断跟进多单，上方目标价位有望触及36.800-37.200美元/盎 司。（止损为0.200美元/盎司空间） 周四因市场投资者对美联储降息的预期升温，现货黄金市场再收阳线，昨日市场最高至3398.97美元/盎司，最终 收盘于3386.66美元/盎司。 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易关税情况，同时要密切关注 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall view on the energy and chemical sector is to treat it with an oscillatory mindset, with various products having different outlooks such as "oscillate", "oscillate weakly", etc., based on the specific situation of each product [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have become the core factor driving oil prices, with high uncertainty. The ongoing Iran - US nuclear negotiations are accompanied by military threats. If geopolitical concerns are disproven, the pressure of increased production may drive oil prices down. However, if military action occurs, it could provide significant upward potential for oil prices. The chemical industry shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with a weak outlook [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks have increased, leading to intensified oil price fluctuations. SC2507 closed at 495.7 yuan/barrel on June 12, with a change of +3.68%. Brent2508 closed at 70.34 dollars/barrel, with a change of -0.62%. The Middle East situation is the key factor, and the oil price is in a high - risk stage, expected to oscillate after a rapid rise [4] - **LPG**: Cost support has increased, and PG has rebounded following crude oil. However, domestic combustion and chemical demand remain weak, with limited upward rebound space, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [8] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices rise, the asphalt cracking spread continues to decline. The asphalt futures closed at 3527 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast, and Shandong were 3670 yuan/ton, 3900 yuan/ton, and 3725 yuan/ton respectively [6] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: After a sharp rise, it has fallen back. The main contract closed at 2997 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price oscillates following crude oil. It is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with low valuation, and is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations [7] - **Methanol**: Port inventories continue to accumulate, and it oscillates. The spot price in Taicang on June 12 was 2370 yuan/ton, and the port inventory increased to 65.22 tons on June 11 [15] - **Urea**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the market is operating weakly. The factory and market low - end prices on June 12 were 1730 and 1715 yuan/ton respectively, and the daily production was 20.74 tons [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethane imports may return to normal, and EG has adjusted significantly. The spot price on June 12 was around 4315 yuan/ton, and the port inventory was about 63.4 tons on June 9 [11] - **PX**: Supply restarts quickly, and attention should be paid to PTA production and polyester start - up. The CFR price in Taiwan on June 12 was 818 dollars/ton. The Asian PX operating rate will further increase, and the domestic market is in a de - stocking cycle [10] - **PTA**: Supply increases while demand decreases, and the situation is gradually weakening. The spot price on June 12 was 4855 yuan/ton, and the polyester sales were weak. The 250 - ton PTA device in Shandong has reached full capacity [10] - **Short Fibre**: Production cuts support processing fees, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials. The sales rate on June 9 was 60% on average, and the export growth rate from January to April was 33% [11][12] - **Bottle Chip**: The production is at a high level with oversupply, and low processing fees will continue. The processing fees are expected to oscillate between 300 - 400 yuan/ton [13][14] - **PP**: Although the oil price rebounds, the fundamentals are still under pressure, and it oscillates. The mainstream transaction price in East China on June 12 was 7100 yuan/ton, and the supply is still increasing [16][17] - **Plastic**: The raw material end provides a boost, but maintenance is needed to balance supply and demand, and it oscillates. The mainstream LLDPE price on June 12 was 7170 yuan/ton, and the downstream demand is weak [16] - **Styrene**: Driven by macro - expectations, it rebounds. The spot price in East China on June 12 was 7780 yuan/ton. However, the rebound drive may not be sustainable, and the supply may increase while the demand is weak [10] - **PVC**: Market sentiment has cooled, and it operates weakly. The benchmark price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China was 4790 yuan/ton, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in the long - term [18] - **Caustic Soda**: The cost center has shifted downwards, and it operates weakly. The 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2719 yuan/ton, and the demand is weak while the supply is expected to increase [18] (2) Variety Data Monitoring (i) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spreads and their changes, such as SC (M1 - M2) being 4 with a change of 0, Brent (M1 - M2) being 0.8 with a change of - 0.05, etc. [19] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, the basis of asphalt is 198 with a change of - 61, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [20] - **Inter - Variety Spread**: There are also data on inter - variety spreads and their changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 141 with a change of - 14 [21]

隔夜美国5月CPI年率录得2.4%,核心CPI录得2.8%，同比环比均低于预期，特朗普再次呼吁降息,美元回 落,金价小幅上涨。但中美会谈达成共识框架消息令市场风险偏好继续向好限制金价涨幅。各方关税谈判将 继续主导市场,俄乌以及中东等地缘局势持续紧张,金价震荡中维持回调买入思路,白银破位后打开上方空 间。今晚关注美国PPI和周度初请失业金人数。 ★美国5月CPI环比上涨0.1%,不及预期的0.2%,4月增幅为0.2%;CPI同比上涨2.4%,符合预期,4月为 2.3%; 扣除波动较大的食品和能源核心CPI环比0.1%，不及预期的0.2%,较4月的0.2%有所放缓；同比2.8%, 不及预期的2.9%，4月为2.8%，保持在2021年3月以来的最低水平。 ★中东局势—1特朗普对达成伊核协议信心减弱。②伊朗防长:如果核谈判失败并与美国发生冲突,伊朗将 打击该地区的美军基地。③美方授权美军家属可自愿撤离中东,缩减在伊拉克的美国使团规模。④据悉伊美 周末举行第六轮核谈判举行的可能性越来越小。 ★关税—()欧盟希望贸易谈判时间延长至特朗普设定暂缓期限之后。②贝森特:只要在谈判中表现出"城 意",特朗普政府愿意将目前的90天 ...

全球市场再现低迷！ 那么，究竟发生了什么？分析人士认为，变数主要来自两个方面。 一是关税。美国总统特朗普周三表示，他将在未来几周向主要经济体发送信函，设定他计划的贸易关税，这打 消了在7月9日与其政府达成协议的最后期限前达成更多贸易协议的希望。日本首相石破茂表示，他不会仓促与 美国达成损害国家利益的贸易协议，但他欢迎与特朗普在将举行的峰会前取得的任何进展。 二是中东。据多位知情人士透露，尽管特朗普正在与德黑兰就一项旨在削减其核计划的外交协议进行深入讨 论，但以色列仍考虑在未来几天对伊朗采取军事行动。一位国防官员透露，由于"地区紧张局势加剧"，美国国 务院下令非紧急状态的政府官员撤离伊拉克，五角大楼也已授权军人家属自愿离开中东各地。 避险情绪再度显现 今天，全球市场再度进入到避险情绪主导的阶段。欧洲股市全线杀跌，美股期指亦大幅下行，标普500VIX指 数则明显反弹。亚太股市收盘亦大多出现杀跌行情，恒生科技指数跌超2%，恒生指数跌1.36%，中国稀土跌超 14%，小鹏汽车跌超6%，快手跌约6%。 与此同时， 美元指数失守98，为4月21日来首次，日内跌0.68%。日元兑美元涨超0.5%，领涨非美货 币。 虚拟币也 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价再现突破式反弹，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘上涨 3.17 美元 | | | | 至 68.15 美元/桶，涨幅 4.88%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.90 美 | | | | 元至 69.77 美元/桶，涨幅 4.34%。SC2507 以 497.4 元/桶收盘，上 | | | | 涨 16.2 元/桶，涨幅为 3.37%。昨天凌晨突发，中东地缘动荡进一 | | | | 步加剧，油价凌晨大幅拉高。美媒称，美国防长下令美军家属可 | | | | 从中东各地自愿撤离。美国军方正在与国务院及其在该地区的盟 | | | | 友合作，"保持持续的战备状态"。EIA 数据，上周美国原油库存 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 下降，因炼油活动增加，推高汽油和馏分油库存。截至 6 月 6 日 | 偏强 | | | 当周，美国商业原油库存减少 360 万桶至 4.324 亿桶，此前市场 | | | | 预期为减少200万桶。当周俄克拉荷马州的库欣 ...