Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the context of ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic disturbances, there are export restrictions and concerns in major high - sulfur fuel supply regions like Russia and Iran. However, the current situation of high inventory and weak demand in the first quarter remains. Geopolitics is the main bullish driver, and the near - term logistics supply from Russia and Iran is temporarily stable. On the demand side, after the restriction of Venezuelan oil, the market expects Chinese local refineries to import Iranian and Russian crude oil and fuel oil as substitutes. The increase in state - owned procurement reflects the feedstock demand. For low - sulfur fuel, the near - term supply pressure has decreased. The return of the gasoline unit at the Dangote refinery is expected to reduce low - sulfur external supply and exports, and the external low - sulfur logistics is being diverted by the West. The export of low - sulfur heavy crude oil from Sudan's Dar has not met expectations, and the logistics to the Pan - Singapore area is also being diverted. The Al - Zour refinery in the Middle East has maintained a stable high - level of low - sulfur exports after its return. Near - term focus should be on supply and inventory changes in the Pan - Singapore area, as well as domestic refinery quota production and imports [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: The price of FU主力 on February 24, 2026, was 2942, up 102 from the previous day. Its position was 30.3 million hands, up 3.8 million hands. The price of LU主力 was 3478, up 217 from the previous day, and its position was 12.5 million hands, up 0.2 million hands. The FU5 - 9 spread was 110, down 20, and the LU3 - 4 spread was - 5, up 5. The LU - FU主力 spread was 536, up 115. The FU05 - outer market 04 spread was 16.5, up 3.9, and the LU05 - outer market 04 spread was 17.4, down 2.2 [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The FU warehouse receipts were 1300 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the LU warehouse receipts were 2780, down 1500 [3]. Second Part: Market Research and Judgment - **Market Overview**: In the Singapore paper - cargo market, the high - sulfur Mar/Apr monthly spread dropped 2.7 to 1.50 US dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Mar/Apr monthly spread dropped 0.4 to 2.75 US dollars/ton [5]. - **Important Information**: In January, the sales volume of marine fuel oil in the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ) in the UAE totaled 635,835 cubic meters (about 630,000 metric tons), a 6.1% increase from December and a 1.1% increase from January of last year. The market share of high - sulfur fuel increased from 33% to 36%, while the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 67% to 64% [6]. - **Market Judgment**: As mentioned in the core viewpoints, geopolitical factors are the main bullish driver for high - sulfur fuel, and the near - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel has decreased [7]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures including Singapore high - sulfur cracking, low - sulfur cracking, gasoline cracking, 10ppm diesel cracking, high - low sulfur spread, and LSFO - GO, all with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters [11][12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge of over 6% in the oil ETF (561360) indicates a shift in oil pricing from fundamental factors to being driven by geopolitical news, with market focus on the probability of future supply disruptions rather than current inventory levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The oil price is currently influenced more by geopolitical events than by traditional supply-demand analysis, with any minor developments potentially causing significant price fluctuations [1][2]. - The market is now more concerned with geopolitical tensions, such as military movements or negotiations, rather than traditional metrics like OECD inventory levels or Chinese demand recovery [2]. Group 2: Investment Implications - The risk of oil prices rising is greater than the risk of them falling, especially if military tensions between the US and Iran escalate or if there are disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which includes major companies in exploration, extraction, refining, and sales, reflecting the overall performance of the oil and gas sector [2].

【技术分析】 【要闻速递】 美国最高法院裁定去年美国总统特朗普的关税，随后特朗普展开报复，开征新一轮关税，幅度达15%， 同时，威胁说"耍花招"的国家会面临报复。并且，正考虑对六大行业征收新的国家安全关税。 俄乌还好，谈谈打打，打打谈谈，目前依然在谈。其次是中东地区，美伊以动态引全球关注，剑拔弩 张；虽然打的概率不大，毕竟伊朗不是阿富汗，不是伊拉克，更不是利比亚和叙利亚那种相对小的国 家；并且伊朗地处位置敏感，对油价影响大。 开战容易，停战难，特朗普还面临中期选举；极限施压目前没有效果，狠话都撂下了，特朗普和相关方 都有点骑虎难下。 摘要周二(2月24日)欧洲时段，春节期间，国际金银整体震荡，临近节尾受关税及地缘局势刺激打破平 衡，多头发力拉升。截至目前，国际黄金较节前涨逾200美元，白银涨超10美元，今日沪金银、TD等国 内品种料将高开。长假后首日波动剧烈，多空博弈加剧，切忌盲目追单，宜待市场修复后再介入。昨日 金银续创新高，黄金突破5140-45后触及5220-40目标，白银站上88美元，后市仍聚焦美伊局势与关税动 态。 周二(2月24日)欧洲时段，春节期间，国际金银整体震荡，临近节尾受关税及地缘局势刺激 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overseas financial market during the Spring Festival holiday in 2026 revolved around three main lines: AI industry changes, geopolitical games, and tariff policy reconstruction. The follow - up needs to focus on how the Trump administration switches tariff tools overseas and the situation within the 301 tariff framework domestically. The probability of major risk events in the short - term is low due to the possible Sino - US summit [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, although the US economic fundamentals have not significantly deteriorated and the US political situation is chaotic, the RMB exchange rate is relatively stable. After the holiday, the linkage between the US dollar against the RMB and the US dollar index is expected to strengthen, and there are still positive factors supporting the RMB's long - term appreciation [3]. - The stock index is likely to strengthen after the holiday due to the combination of internal and external factors during the Spring Festival. The domestic financial data in January exceeded expectations, and the historical law shows that the A - share market has a high probability of rising after the Spring Festival [7]. - For treasury bonds, after the holiday, attention should be paid to risk sentiment and the trend of the A - share market. T2606 mid - line long positions can be held in a small amount, and short - term value is not high [8]. - For the container shipping European line, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may push up the operating costs and risk premiums of the container shipping industry. The market will focus on whether the traditional small peak of shipments in March can be realized [10]. - For lithium carbonate, the demand in March is strong, and the processing fee may strengthen marginally [13]. - For the aluminum industry chain, electrolytic aluminum is still optimistic in the long - term, and it may maintain a volatile consolidation after the holiday. Alumina is bearish in the medium - to - long - term, and cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum [15]. - For copper, it is mainly in a volatile state in the short - term, and it is expected to break through and rise in the medium - term [17]. - For zinc, the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continues. The macro and fundamental factors have different impacts on the price [19]. - For nickel, the supply - side structure continues to adjust, and the overseas market is in a volatile and strengthening repair state [21]. - For tin, it follows the precious metals and runs strongly in the short - to - medium - term [24]. - For lead, it fluctuates under the influence of multiple events [26]. - For oilseeds, the US soybean may enter a high - level wide - range shock period, and the domestic soybean meal is in a short - term long and medium - term short trend [32]. - For oils and fats, the domestic oils and fats are expected to rise after the holiday [33]. - For crude oil and fuel oil, the short - term pricing core is still the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East, and the market will continue to fluctuate greatly [36]. - For asphalt, the market will follow the cost - end crude oil to fluctuate [37]. - For platinum and palladium, the bull market foundation still exists in the medium - to - long - term, and attention should be paid to relevant investigations and details [41]. - For gold and silver, maintain a strategic bullish position, and pay attention to the repair opportunity of the gold - silver ratio [46]. - For pulp and offset paper, the market is affected by multiple factors, and interval trading can be maintained [50]. - For LPG, the short - term pricing is mainly dominated by the US - Iran situation [53]. - For PTA - PX, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is more appropriate to buy on dips. Pay attention to the return plan of parking devices and do short on the processing fee on rallies [57]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate strongly along with the cost end, and pay attention to the geopolitical influence of Iran [60]. - For methanol, pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation, and the 5 - 9 positive spread strategy has a good risk - return ratio [63]. - For rubber, the price is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand expectation and domestic weather conditions [65]. - For urea, it is advisable to buy at a low level [66]. - For glass and soda ash, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the medium - to - long - term, and the glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand [68]. - For propylene, the cost increase and fundamental situation bring upward driving force to the market [70]. - For steel products, the price maintains a volatile and weak trend, and the price of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil may test the lower support level of the shock range after the holiday [72]. - For iron ore, the valuation has decreased, the negative factors have been released, and attention can be paid to low - buying or positive spread opportunities [73]. - For coking coal and coke, attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of mines and blast - furnace steel mills after the Spring Festival [77]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they continue to be in a volatile and weak state [78]. - For live pigs, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, and the pig price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [80]. - For cotton, it is advisable to arrange long positions on callbacks but not to chase up, and pay attention to the demand situation after the holiday and the US tariff policy [83]. - For sugar, the upward driving force is limited, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [86]. - For eggs, it will maintain a low - level shock in the short - term and the price center may rise in the medium - term [88]. - For apples, the short - term demand weakness has a suppressing effect on the market, but the decline space is limited [93]. - For red dates, the supply pattern is loose, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market Information**: Multiple events affected the market, including AI - related employment concerns, Trump's tariff policies, the Iran issue, and strong domestic tourism data during the Spring Festival [1]. - **South China's Viewpoint**: The overseas financial market during the Spring Festival holiday revolved around three main lines, and attention should be paid to overseas tariff tool switching and domestic 301 tariff framework [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US economic fundamentals did not significantly deteriorate, and the RMB exchange rate was relatively stable. After the holiday, the linkage with the US dollar index is expected to strengthen [3]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.95, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at the 6.88 level [4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is likely to strengthen after the holiday due to the combination of internal and external factors during the Spring Festival [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to risk sentiment and the A - share market trend. T2606 mid - line long positions can be held in a small amount [8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: Geopolitical factors may push up the costs of the container shipping industry, and attention should be paid to the shipment peak in March [10]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand in March is strong, and the processing fee may strengthen marginally [13]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Electrolytic aluminum is optimistic in the long - term and may fluctuate after the holiday. Alumina is bearish in the medium - to - long - term, and cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum [15]. - **Copper**: It is mainly volatile in the short - term and expected to rise in the medium - term [17]. - **Zinc**: The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic continues, affected by macro and fundamental factors [19]. - **Nickel**: The supply - side structure adjusts, and the overseas market is in a volatile and strengthening repair state [21]. - **Tin**: It follows the precious metals and runs strongly in the short - to - medium - term [24]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates under the influence of multiple events [26]. Oils and Fats and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The US soybean may enter a high - level wide - range shock period, and the domestic soybean meal is in a short - term long and medium - term short trend [32]. - **Oils and Fats**: The domestic oils and fats are expected to rise after the holiday [33]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: The short - term pricing core is the geopolitical risk premium in the Middle East, and the market will continue to fluctuate greatly [36]. - **Asphalt**: The market will follow the cost - end crude oil to fluctuate [37]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The bull market foundation still exists in the medium - to - long - term, and attention should be paid to relevant investigations and details [41]. - **Gold and Silver**: Maintain a strategic bullish position, and pay attention to the repair opportunity of the gold - silver ratio [46]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The market is affected by multiple factors, and interval trading can be maintained [50]. - **LPG**: The short - term pricing is mainly dominated by the US - Iran situation [53]. - **PTA - PX**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is more appropriate to buy on dips. Pay attention to the return plan of parking devices and do short on the processing fee on rallies [57]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly along with the cost end, and pay attention to the geopolitical influence of Iran [60]. - **Methanol**: Pay attention to the evolution of the geopolitical situation, and the 5 - 9 positive spread strategy has a good risk - return ratio [63]. - **Rubber**: The price is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand expectation and domestic weather conditions [65]. - **Urea**: It is advisable to buy at a low level [66]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high in the medium - to - long - term, and the glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand [68]. - **Propylene**: The cost increase and fundamental situation bring upward driving force to the market [70]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price maintains a volatile and weak trend, and the price of the main contracts may test the lower support level of the shock range after the holiday [72]. - **Iron Ore**: The valuation has decreased, the negative factors have been released, and attention can be paid to low - buying or positive spread opportunities [73]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of mines and blast - furnace steel mills after the Spring Festival [77]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: They continue to be in a volatile and weak state [78]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, and the pig price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [80]. - **Cotton**: It is advisable to arrange long positions on callbacks but not to chase up, and pay attention to the demand situation after the holiday and the US tariff policy [83]. - **Sugar**: The upward driving force is limited, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [86]. - **Eggs**: It will maintain a low - level shock in the short - term and the price center may rise in the medium - term [88]. - **Apples**: The short - term demand weakness has a suppressing effect on the market, but the decline space is limited [93]. - **Red Dates**: The supply pattern is loose, and the price may maintain a low - level shock [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the opening price of industrial products is likely to be higher. It is recommended to temporarily observe rubber unilaterally, and avoid chasing high prices due to the fluctuating macro - sentiment. For the RU main contract, the support level is between 15,700 - 15,800, and the pressure level is between 16,100 - 16,400. For the NR main contract, the support level is between 12,800 - 13,000, and the pressure level is between 13,420 - 13,800 [3]. - The rubber is recommended to be bought on dips. The domestic spot inventory is continuously accumulating slightly, overseas supply has no obvious fluctuations, the spot price is firm, and the macro - sentiment boosts the commodity market. It is expected to fluctuate and rise. The 20 - number rubber is also recommended to be bought on dips. The dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory inflection point, the Thai glue price is firm, the output in the fourth quarter has declined, and there is still support below. It is expected to rebound from the bottom [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Rubber Variety Viewpoint Summary - **Rubber**: The recommended strategy is to buy on dips. The supporting logic is that the domestic spot inventory is continuously accumulating slightly, overseas supply has no obvious fluctuations, the spot price is firm, and the macro - sentiment boosts the commodity market. The support range is 15,500 - 15,800, the pressure range is 16,300 - 16,500, and the market is expected to fluctuate and rise [9]. - **20 - number rubber**: The recommended strategy is to buy on dips. The supporting logic is that the dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory inflection point, the Thai glue price is firm, the output in the fourth quarter has declined, and there is still support below. The support range is 12,700 - 12,800, the pressure range is 13,420 - 13,805, and the market is expected to rebound from the bottom [9]. Second Part: Futures Market Review 1. Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Daily Change Value | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber Main Contract | 16,315 | - 1.42 | - 235 | 165,470 | 140,235 | | 20 - number Rubber Main Contract | 13,180 | - 1.90 | - 255 | 47,212 | 47,785 | | Singapore TSR20 Main Contract | 193 | 0.42 | 1 | 10 | 24,540 | [9] 2. Futures Market Warehouse Receipt Situation - The latest warehouse receipt volume of 20 - number rubber is 50,803, with a year - on - year change of - 20.13%. The warehouse receipt has rebounded from a low level recently, and the market's inventory accumulation expectation has resurfaced. - The latest warehouse receipt volume of rubber is 112,570, with a year - on - year change of - 38.86%. The warehouse receipt was significantly cancelled again today, the futures inventory has dropped sharply year - on - year, the delivery risk of futures contracts has increased, which supports the RU futures price [13]. Third Part: Spot Market Trends | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Natural Rubber (Yuan/ton) | 16,283 | - 109 | - 853 | | Yunnan Glue (Yuan/ton) | 14,200 | 0 | - 1,800 | | Thai Hat Yai Glue (Thai Baht/kg) | 62 | 0 | - 4 | | Thai Hat Yai Cup Rubber (Thai Baht/kg) | 55 | 1 | - 5 | | Thai 20 Standard Rubber in Qingdao Bonded Area (US dollars/ton) | 1,980 | 0 | - 170 | [18] Fourth Part: Basis and Spread Situation | Futures | Spread Type | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU Main Contract Basis | Basis | - 32 | 10 | 437 | | NR Main Contract Basis | Basis | 1,820 | 90 | 115 | | Thai Mixed - RU | Non - standard Basis | - 985 | - 55 | 250 | | SVR3L - RU | Non - standard Basis | 235 | - 100 | 570 | | RU - NR | Cross - variety Spread | 3,135 | 0 | 540 | | Whole Milk - Thai Mixed | Light - and Dark - colored Rubber Spread | 720 | 55 | - 30 | [23] Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 5 - 9 | 120 | 0 | 265 | Range - bound | Observe | | 20 - number Rubber | 3 - 4 | - 60 | 0 | - 295 | Range - bound | Observe | [25] Sixth Part: Industrial Supply, Demand and Inventory Situation There is no specific text description in the report, but there are relevant figures such as the overall supply - demand situation of ANRPC member countries, the year - on - year change of the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber, the year - on - year change of China's automobile production, the operating rates of domestic semi - steel tires and all - steel tires, the inventory days of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires, and the social inventory of Chinese natural rubber [29]. Seventh Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description in the report, but there are relevant figures such as the trading volume and open interest of natural rubber options, the put - call ratio of natural rubber options, the 60 - day historical volatility of rubber options, and the weighted implied volatility of rubber options [33].

Market Overview - The three major indices rose over 1%, with trading volume increasing by more than 300 billion, and over 4,200 stocks in the market experienced gains, indicating a strong "opening red" atmosphere [1] - Despite the overall market rise, specific sectors such as film and AI applications saw declines, with companies like Light Media hitting a 20% limit down [1] Capital Flow Directions - The first direction of capital flow was towards resource cyclical stocks, including oil, gold, and chemicals, driven by concerns over Trump's tariff policies and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Brent crude oil surpassed $70, and gold broke through $5,160, indicating a shift towards safe-haven assets due to geopolitical risks [3] - The second direction was towards computing hardware stocks, with companies like Changfei Fiber Optics hitting new highs and others like Tianfu Communication and Zhongji Xuchuang experiencing significant gains. This trend is attributed to the ongoing demand in the AI sector, particularly in storage chips and optical modules, suggesting a rotation of funds within the industry [4] Investment Strategy - It is advised not to chase high prices after the morning surge, as entering at this stage may lead to buying at short-term peaks. The best buying opportunities are expected during periods of market correction [5] - Three operational suggestions were provided: 1. Review holdings and consider adjusting positions in stocks that lack performance and are declining, focusing on those with solid price increase logic or order support [6] 2. Avoid chasing high openings; instead, look for buying opportunities during market fluctuations [7] 3. Monitor two key signals: whether trading volume can stabilize and the sustainability of resource and computing sectors [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

Group 1 - The ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions are escalating, with the U.S. potentially planning military strikes while Iran maintains a strong stance against yielding to pressure [1][3] - Iran possesses approximately 2,000 medium-range ballistic missiles, capable of reaching U.S. military bases in Turkey, Israel, and Gulf states, indicating its ability to retaliate if attacked [3] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical geopolitical asset for Iran, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes, and Iran has threatened to close it in response to military action, which could significantly impact global energy supply [4] Group 2 - Iran's historical experience with negotiations, particularly the 2015 nuclear deal, has made it wary of compromising, as past concessions did not lead to lasting peace but rather further aggression [6] - The current standoff is seen as vital for Iran's regime survival and national dignity, with the Supreme Leader emphasizing that true strength comes from national will and resilience [7] - The potential for a prolonged conflict poses risks for the U.S., as its military might face challenges in a drawn-out engagement, which could contradict political promises and lead to domestic repercussions [8][10]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 免 责 声 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何 张证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行 断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推 授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITG 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货股份有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2026/2/24 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2026/2/12 | 2026/2/13 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 476.8 | 460. 7 | -16. 10 | 成交情况: P ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Asian aromatics show a structural trend affected by geopolitics. The speculative sentiment in the Asian PX market has recovered, and PX prices rose during the holiday due to the increase in crude oil prices, up by $20 compared to before the holiday [2]. - There are reports that some polyester factories are short of cash, and it's difficult to deliver spot goods in time. The domestic market is in a calm period during the Spring Festival. Some overseas PTA factories face operational pressure due to poor profits [2]. - The domestic PX market has sufficient supply, with many factories restarting and the load in South Korea, India, and Thailand recovering. However, from March to May, there will be a major turnover season for refineries, and it is estimated that some large - scale PX production capacities will be shut down for maintenance, and South Korea also plans to shut down some capacities, tightening the supply. Currently, the price difference between PX and naphtha has recovered to $310 [2]. - Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand has declined, and the Spring Festival production cuts of polyester factories have a limited negative feedback on PTA. The tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East may bring short - term energy price fluctuation risks. Bottle chip profits are expanding, and short - fiber profits are expected to expand [2][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 5205 to 5130, a decrease of 75; MEG inner - market price decreased from 3639 to 3588, a decrease of 51; PTA closing price decreased from 5220 to 5204, a decrease of 16; MEG closing price decreased from 3723 to 3678, a decrease of 45 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price remained unchanged at 6595; short - fiber basis increased from 20 to 23, an increase of 3; 3 - 4 spread decreased from - 68 to - 78, a decrease of 10; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5300; the price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber remained unchanged at 1295 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 6259 to 6218, a decrease of 41; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6259 to 6218, a decrease of 41; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6359 to 6318, a decrease of 41; outer - market water bottle chip price decreased from 845 to 840, a decrease of 5 [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 590 to 630, an increase of 40; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10700; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee remained unchanged at 4105 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16800; cotton 328 price decreased from 15840 to 15790, a decrease of 50; polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1440 to 1459, an increase of 19 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7290; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 421 to 502, an increase of 81; primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7895 [2]. Market Conditions - For short - fiber, the prices of polyester staple fiber production factories are stable, and the prices of traders are in a stalemate. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream is basically on holiday, and there is almost no trading in the market. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market is 6450 - 6680 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it is 6570 - 6800 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it is 6530 - 6750 yuan for cash - on - delivery, tax - included delivery [2]. - For bottle chips, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 6250 - 6350 yuan/ton, with the average price remaining the same as the previous working day. PTA and bottle chip futures are closed and provide no guidance. As the holiday approaches, most suppliers temporarily stop quoting, the supply of spot goods in the market is tight, downstream terminals withdraw from the market to wait and see, and market trading is stagnant [2]. Industry Indicators - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, an increase of 2.07%; polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 22.00% to 3.00%, a decrease of 19.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, an increase of 0.32%; recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a decrease of 0.63% [3].