投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 假期外盘表现强势，但地缘政治扰动加剧 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2026-01-05 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 12月制造业PMI显著改善。2025年12月，中国制造业采购经理指数（制造业PMI）为50.1%，较上月回升0.9个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数（非制造 | | 经济和企 | 中性 | 业PMI）为50.2%，较上月回升0.7个百分点。当月制造业景气回升，主要受两方面因素推动：一是12月工作日较去年同期增加1天（而10月、11月均较 | | 业盈利 | 偏多 | 去年同期减少1天），对生产活动产生正向影响；二是政策性金融工具效果逐步显现，带动基建、制造业投资等相关需求好转。从结构上看，生产、需 | | | | 求等主 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 地缘局势再度升温，风险溢价或驱动油价反弹 主要周度数据变动回顾 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-05 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:地缘局势再度升温，风险溢价或驱动油价反弹 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2025年和2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2025年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,616万桶/日，较2024年上升 299万桶/日。(2)OPEC:11月份OPEC国家原油产量为2848万桶/日，较10月份下降0.1万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1458.5万桶/日，较10月 | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | | | | | 份上升4.5万桶/日。（3）IEA：11月份OPEC国家原油产量为2899万桶/日， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on polyester is "oscillating", with an expected upward trend mainly driven by the supply side [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid the upsurge in bulk commodity sentiment, the polyester market is expected to be strong, pushing up prices. The PX market is at a critical juncture where speculative sentiment and fundamental factors intersect. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the new polyester installations drive the high - load operation of the polyester industry, keeping PTA consumption at a high level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The PX market sentiment is supported by the expectation of tight supply in Q1 2026. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has reached $155, significantly improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the high - load polyester industry supports demand [3]. - **Demand**: New polyester installations drive the high - load operation of the polyester industry. PTA consumption remains high, and the market's inventory - building willingness increases, leading to a rapid strengthening of the basis [3]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of PTA has decreased by 30,000 tons, and mainstream polyester factories sell spot goods [3]. - **Basis**: The PTA basis has been continuously strengthening, and PTA profits have expanded significantly [3]. - **Profit**: The spread between PX and naphtha is $360, and the PTA processing fee has expanded to around 350 yuan [3]. - **Valuation**: The PTA price has significantly rebounded, exceeding 5,000 yuan. The profit of the reforming unit has recovered, and overseas PX units have increased their loads due to profit expansion [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Neutral [3]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating, expected to be mainly upward - trending driven by the supply side [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, crude oil prices remain weak. Due to the intensification of US sanctions on Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, crude oil prices are under pressure [6][26]. - **Gasoline**: In the US, gasoline inventories are accumulating, and demand is seasonally weakening. Gasoline cracking profits have slightly weakened. The European gasoline forward premium is strengthening, and the market has started to stock up for the 2026 summer driving season [10][15][26]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - **PX Supply**: Although the PX supply has increased, the market is expected to be strong. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX - mixed xylene spread has reached $155, significantly improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The PX market is at a critical juncture where speculative sentiment and fundamental factors intersect [66]. - **Aromatics Market**: Asian reformed naphtha remains firm due to regional supply - demand structural tightness. The cracking profit of naphtha has further deteriorated. The supply of reformed naphtha is restricted. In the short term, aromatic components are supported by supply constraints and seasonal demand, but in the medium - to - long term, they face challenges from energy transformation and low aromatic profits [45]. - **Mixed Xylene Market**: The mixed xylene market has strengthened significantly, mainly driven by the strong rebound of PX prices. The PX - mixed xylene spread has expanded to $156, and the mixed xylene - naphtha spread has reached a recent high of $174/ton. In the short term, the mixed xylene price will follow the PX trend, but its upward space is limited by weak gasoline blending profits and the impact of eased geopolitical risks on crude oil [59]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: The number of overseas ethylene glycol unit maintenance plans has increased. The ethylene glycol port inventory in East China remains at 730,000 tons. With the continuous decline of coal prices, the ethylene glycol price is difficult to be effectively supported. The return of coal - based ethylene glycol units exerts significant pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to recent domestic policy changes, and the ethylene glycol price may be supported under the background of carbon neutrality [79]. - **Gasoline**: Asian gasoline profits remain strong. Attention should be paid to domestic gasoline exports [80]. - **Polyester**: The polyester industry continues to operate at a high load, but demand is seasonally weakening. The commodity sentiment has weakened, and policy changes may have an impact on the polyester industry [87][99].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market sentiment has weakened, and it is expected that pure benzene and styrene will mainly fluctuate. The supply and demand of styrene both show a bearish trend, the inventory is neutral, the basis is bullish, the profit and valuation are neutral, and the macro - policy is bullish [4]. - Overseas markets for pure benzene and styrene are generally weak. The overseas pure benzene market has light trading, and the styrene market is in a downturn with limited upward momentum in the short term [74][95]. - The downstream demand for styrene is in the off - season, with weak demand and shrinking profits in industries such as ABS, PS, and EPS [52][64][75]. - The domestic pure benzene market has weak demand, high inventory, and narrow price fluctuations. Although there is short - term support from the rebound of energy prices, the overall market sentiment is still suppressed [84]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The spread between styrene and naphtha has narrowed to $272, and the spread between styrene and benzene has dropped to $154. Asian producers are still in a loss - making state, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Demand**: As of December 29, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 56.09%, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Inventory**: As of December 29, 2025, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu port samples was 138,800 tons, a decrease of 0.36% from the previous period, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Basis**: The styrene basis has slightly strengthened, and attention should be paid to the change in cost support, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Profit**: The spread between styrene and naphtha has narrowed to $272, and the spread between styrene and benzene has dropped to $154. Styrene profit has slightly recovered, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Valuation**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are at historical lows, and the overseas export demand is driving up the price. The market is paying attention to the strengthening of the basis and monthly spread performance, showing a neutral trend [4]. - **Macro - policy**: Geopolitical events may have an impact on the market, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. 3.2 Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene Fundamentals - **Crude Oil**: The gasoline crack spread has shrunk, and there is less cross - regional trade [6]. - **Styrene**: The profit of non - integrated styrene plants is average [16]. - **Pure Benzene**: The demand for derivatives has not reversed, and the inventory of pure benzene remains at a high level [38]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - **Styrene Downstream - ABS**: In the off - season, demand is weak, and profits are shrinking [52]. - **Styrene Downstream - PS**: The production profit is weak, and demand has entered the off - season [64]. - **Styrene Downstream - EPS**: Inventory continues to accumulate [75]. - **Pure Benzene - Aniline**: The output has declined, and the gross profit has rebounded [87]. - **Phenol**: The port inventory remains at a low level [97]. - **Adipic Acid**: Information about production profit, capacity utilization, etc. is presented in the relevant data charts [108]. - **Caprolactam**: The load has declined, and inventory has been depleted [119]. - **Household Appliances**: There is no obvious increase in demand [128].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【甲醇专题（MA）】 卸货顺畅后累库，地缘风险持续加剧 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-01-05 卢钊毅 从业资格证号：F3171622 投资咨询证号：Z0021177 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 甲醇：卸货顺畅后累库，地缘风险持续加剧 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 本周国内甲醇供给端呈国产、进口双减量态势。总供应量 248.50 万吨，环比降 3.10%；周产量 205.11 万吨，环比降 0.73%。新增西南气头装置检修、新疆天业减产，减产恢复 | | | | 量少于损失量，产能利用率降至 90.31%。进口量 43.39 万吨，环比大降 12.92%，下周进口预期窄幅增加。 | | 需求 | 利多 | 本周甲醇需求端整体增量。总消费量 240.15 万吨，环比增 1.85%；MTO 消费量 108.86 万吨，环比微降 0.08%。传统下游开工走低，交投清淡；中期受补空、刚需补货及内蒙古 | | | ...

据新华社报道，美军3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发动大规模军事打击，抓走委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，并将其强行 带往美国。美国总统特朗普当天称，美国将"管理"委内瑞拉，并宣布美国大型石油企业将进入委内瑞 拉，投资数以十亿计美元，"维修"石油基础设施并创造收益。 今日开盘，油气股强势上涨，准油股份（002207.SZ）一字涨停，通源石油（300164.SZ）、科力股份 （920088）、潜能恒信（300191.SZ）、惠博普（002554.SZ）、石化油服（600871.SH）等多股高开。 美国能源信息署（EIA）数据显示，委内瑞拉已探明储量约3030亿桶（占全球17%），居世界首位。 但产能并未完全转化为产量。据全球风险管理公司（Global Risk Management）首席分析师拉斯穆森分 析，尽管委内瑞拉拥有全球最大的已探明石油储量，但该国目前的日均原油产量不足100万桶，占全球 原油总产量的比例不到1%。 "委内瑞拉近年来的产量急剧萎缩。"隆众资讯原油分析师吴燕接受第一财经记者采访时表示，2017年 起，受特朗普任期内制裁举措影响，委内瑞拉的原油产量从此前的超200万桶/日持续下滑，至2020年甚 至跌至30万桶/日附 ...

更深层的风险在于，此事件可能开启一个危险的先例。美国总统特朗普在事后暗示不排除对其他国家采取类似行动，甚至重提对格陵兰岛的领土兴趣，随即 招致丹麦政府的强烈抗议。这种"下一个会是谁？"的猜测，使得地缘政治风险溢价持续弥漫。与此同时，世界并未因此平静——俄罗斯国防部通报遭遇大规 模无人机袭击，显示俄乌冲突远未平息；中东局势依然紧张。多重地缘风险事件的叠加，共同构筑了黄金价格坚固的"防波堤"。根据当前安排，联合国安理 会定于美国东部时间5日上午10时（北京时间5日23时）在美国纽约的联合国总部，就美国对委内瑞拉采取军事行动举行紧急会议。当前被美国强行控制的委 总统马杜罗，预计也将于美东时间5日中午在纽约市的地区法院"首次出庭"。美方预计将就"毒品贩运"等内容对马杜罗提出指控。投资者需要继续保持关 注。 本周展望：地缘政治与就业数据双重考验，2026年美股开局迎变数。随着新年首个完整交易周的到来，金融市场正从假期平静中苏醒，并将面临委内瑞拉局 势与关键美国经济数据的双重考验。分析普遍认为，2026年可能将以波动开局，打破去年年末的窄幅震荡格局。地缘政治风险成为新焦点。美军抓捕委内瑞 拉总统马杜罗并可能接管该国的事件 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 5 日 0 / 47 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | | | | 蛋白粕：成本端存在较大考验 粕类整体压力明显 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大跌，国内糖价震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：地缘扰动再起，油脂波动增加 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，小麦开始拍卖 8 | | 生猪：出栏压力有所好转，现货阶段性回落 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般，蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：冷库库存偏低，果价高位震荡 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新年度种植面积预计下降，棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 铅：供需双弱 铅价区间震荡 22 | | --- | | 镍：配额削减预期助力镍价强势上涨 23 | | 不锈钢：跟随镍价偏强运行 24 | | 工业硅：短期反弹，中期逢高沽空 24 | | 多晶硅：长期偏强，短期注意风险管理 25 | | 碳酸锂：高位运行，谨慎操作 25 | | 锡：地缘政治动荡加剧，锡价或波动加剧 26 | | | | | 原油：地缘扰动频繁，油价波动加剧 29 | | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent military actions by the U.S. against Venezuela, highlighting the potential for U.S. oil companies to invest billions in Venezuelan oil infrastructure, which could significantly impact global oil markets and prices [3]. Group 1: Military Actions and Economic Implications - The U.S. military conducted a large-scale operation against Venezuela, capturing President Maduro and announcing plans to "manage" the country, which includes significant investments in the oil sector [3]. - U.S. oil companies are expected to invest billions to repair oil infrastructure in Venezuela, which has the largest proven oil reserves globally, estimated at 303 billion barrels, accounting for 17% of the world's total [3][4]. Group 2: Current Oil Production and Trends - Venezuela's oil production has drastically declined from over 2 million barrels per day in 2017 to around 930,000 barrels per day in November 2025, reflecting a 2.3% month-on-month decrease [4]. - The average oil production for 2025 was reported at 916,000 barrels per day, showing an 8.57% year-on-year increase, while the average export volume was 728,000 barrels per day, up 10.7% year-on-year [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Oil and gas stocks surged following the news, with companies like Quanzhou Oil and PetroChina seeing significant price increases [3]. - Despite the short-term support for oil prices due to geopolitical instability, analysts caution that the macro environment may not sustain long-term price increases, especially with OPEC+ discussions on restoring production levels [5]. - The article notes that the price of WTI and Brent crude oil has dropped approximately 20% over the year, from $72 and $75 per barrel to $56 and $60, respectively, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and oversupply [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In January, the expected resumption of production and winter storage replenishment by steel mills will bring marginal demand growth. After the year - end shipping rush of overseas mines, there is an expected seasonal decline in January, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The medium - to - long - term outlook for iron ore is bearish based on the mine capacity release cycle [1]. - The real fundamentals of asphalt remain relatively weak. Potential upward drivers in the market come from the raw material side. If the supply of Venezuelan oil continues to tighten, there is room for further rebound in asphalt spot and futures prices [2]. - Short - term coke prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Short - term hog prices will continue to rebound and adjust. Palm oil prices are weak, and short - term palm oil futures in Dalian are expected to open lower and then fluctuate [4][5][6]. - The main contract of soybean meal is suppressed by the expectation of loose supply and demand and runs in the range of 2,730 - 2,790 yuan/ton. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level shock pattern in the short term. Methanol and soda ash are expected to fluctuate in the short term [7][9][10][11]. - For crude oil, short - term trading is advisable. Synthetic rubber will mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Plastic prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [12][13]. - Silver has limited short - term upward space, and it is advisable to wait and see. Gold is expected to remain in a high - level shock in the medium term. The bond market is expected to fluctuate upward [14][15]. Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - Mysteel's global iron ore shipping volume was 36.771 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.126 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 30.596 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.448 million tons [1]. Asphalt - The spot settlement price of heavy - traffic asphalt varies by region. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) and a year - on - year decrease of 276,000 tons (12.1%) [2]. Coke - On January 4, the coke market sentiment was still weak. The price of coking coal continued to decline. Steel mills want to lower the fifth - round purchase price, while some coke enterprises demand a price increase [4]. Rebar - At the end of December, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 7.21 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 270,000 tons (3.6%) [4]. Hog - As of January 2, the average slaughter weight of hogs was 123.35 kg, a decrease of 0.2 kg. The weekly slaughter rate was 36.85%, a decrease of 0.37% [5]. Palm Oil - From December 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 7.39% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.13% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 8.07% month - on - month [6]. Soybean Meal - As of January 4, 2026, the physical inventory of soybean meal in national feed enterprises was 9.4 days, a decrease of 0.05 days from the previous period and an increase of 1.21 days from the same period last year [7]. Copper - A Canadian copper miner's mine in Chile will go on strike starting January 2. The expected production during the strike is only about 30% of the normal level [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol is 91.24%, a week - on - week increase of 0.71% [10]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of national heavy - quality soda ash is 1,228.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.5 yuan/ton. The weekly production of soda ash is 697,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.08% [11]. Crude Oil - The US launched an attack on Venezuela over the weekend. Venezuela's current crude oil production is around 1 million barrels per day, accounting for 0.8% of global production, and its export volume is about 600,000 barrels per day [12]. Synthetic Rubber - In January 2026, the expected production of Chinese butadiene rubber is 153,700 tons, an increase of 10,100 tons from December 2025. As of December 31, 2025, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 33,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period [12]. Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 6,488 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 45 yuan/ton. The weekly production of LLDPE is 315,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% [13]. Silver - The next Fed chairman is expected to be announced in January. Short - term silver is affected by the safe - haven demand of gold, but the upward space is limited [14]. Gold - Geopolitical factors are favorable for gold, but the rebound height may be limited. Gold is expected to remain in a high - level shock in the medium term [14]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - On January 4, most money market interest rates declined. The end - of - year liquidity disturbance is over, and the short - term capital supply has eased, which is favorable for the bond market [15].