炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 近期黄金价格出现大幅度波动。从基本面来看，我们认为是市场对美联储独立性的担忧和伊朗局势的预 期出现了变化，驱动黄金价格先快速上行后大幅震荡下跌。市场的投机性资金也放大了这一趋势变化。 展望短期市场，我们认为市场可能高估了新美联储主席凯文·沃什的鹰派立场，但伊朗局势的不确定性 仍然较高，或需等待局势尘埃落定后黄金市场波动才会收敛。展望2026年全年，我们仍然维持对贵金属 和有色金属价格的乐观预期。 ▍2026年1月以来，黄金价格出现了大幅度波动，从基本面来看主要是两个因素：美联储独立性和伊朗 局势。 2025年伦敦现货黄金收官于4300美元/盎司左右，2025年全年已经实现了大幅度上行。但在2026年1月黄 金价格仍然在加速上行，伦敦金现最高接近5600美元/盎司。但在1月29日触顶之后，黄金价格开始大幅 度震荡下行。其他贵金属等同样开始下跌。我们认为，这种先大幅上行后下行的基本面驱动因素有两 条：市场对美联储独立性担忧的变动以及伊朗局势的变化。 ▍综合智通财经等媒体报道，2026年1月开始，特朗普政府启动了对美联储主席鲍威尔的司法调查， ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with technology stocks leading the gains, pushing the Nasdaq up nearly 1% and the Dow Jones reaching a new all-time high [1] - Major tech stocks saw significant increases, with Oracle soaring over 9%, Microsoft, Broadcom, and AMD rising over 3%, and Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla increasing over 1% [1] - Alphabet, Google's parent company, issued $20 billion in bonds, with demand exceeding $100 billion, indicating strong market confidence in tech giants [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - The precious metals market saw a surge, with COMEX gold futures rising over 2% to $5084.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures skyrocketing 8% to $83.05 per ounce [1] - Oil prices also continued to strengthen, with WTI crude oil futures increasing by 1.27% to $64.36 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rising by 1.45% to $69.04 per barrel [1] - Analysts noted that the weakening U.S. dollar was a key driver behind the simultaneous rise in risk assets and commodities [1] Group 3: Technology Sector Outlook - Despite recent market volatility, institutions remain optimistic about the technology sector's prospects, with expectations for revenue growth at multi-decade highs [3] - Morgan Stanley's strategist highlighted that the valuation drop due to short-term fluctuations provides an attractive entry point for investors [3] - CFRA analysts project earnings per share growth for the tech sector of 32% and 20% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, significantly outpacing the S&P 500 index [3] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. issued safety guidelines for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, advising U.S.-flagged vessels to avoid Iranian waters, raising concerns about potential disruptions in global oil supply [4] - Analysts believe that any conflict leading to the closure of the Strait could significantly tighten global oil supply, impacting short-term oil price volatility [4]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 | 湖 | | | | 期货主力合约 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 持仓量 | 持仓走势 | | हि 每 | 中国SC原油期货 | 475.20 | 1.97 | 45254 | | | H | 美国WT原油期货 | 64.36 | 1.27 | 144000 | | | 信 | 英国BRENT原油期货 | 69.04 | 1.45 | 562707 | | | नि | 美国RBOB汽油期货 | 1.9855 | 1.65 | 115000 | | | | 英国ICE柴油期货 | 689.50 | -0.65 | 208102 | | 后市观点 周一油价震荡中收高，消息面相对平静，但近期地缘层面的扰动让投资者担忧情绪维持高位，稍有风吹 草动就容易推动油价冲高。美国加大对俄罗斯制裁，让俄油销售阻力加大，对俄罗斯形成明显压力，这 引发俄罗斯不满。 【1】【油价陷于地缘博弈，印度拒购俄油，供应风险溢价难消】 ⑴ 在美国与伊朗承诺继续间接 ...

【美建议美商船远离伊朗领海】智通财经2月10日电，当地时间2月9日，美国向途经霍尔木兹海峡的商 船发布最新指南。据美国交通部海事管理局发布的指导意见，该机构建议"悬挂美国国旗的商船尽可能 远离伊朗领海，并在被伊朗军队要求登船时口头拒绝——如果伊朗军队登船，船员不应强行抵抗"。 （CCTV国际时讯） 转自：智通财经 ...

近期，国际贵金属价格上演极端"过山车"行情。 其中，白银现货价格（伦敦银现，下同）从2026年初的72.493美元/盎司，涨至1月29日盘中最高121.647美元/盎司，上涨幅度超50%，随后又快速下跌。截至 北京时间2月9日18时，白银现货价格为81.063美元/盎司。 黄金现货价格（伦敦金现）于1月29日达到历史高峰，涨至5598.75美元/盎司，但随后立即迎来历史性回调时刻，次日单日暴跌9.25%。截至北京时间2月9日 18时，价格回落至5005美元/盎司左右。 大涨大跌间，黄金白银上下游商家也深受影响。 《每日经济新闻》记者走访深圳一家黄金、白银板料加工设备生产商。现场机械轰鸣，工人在忙着调试、包装机器。 "去年扩招了大约70人，现在我们厂子有200人了。"一位工作人员还对记者表示，"这两天放假过年，人都少了很多，铸锭机已经被预约完了。" 设备厂家：铸锭机年前已被预约满 在经历此前暴跌后，国际金价近日开始企稳。截至北京时间2月9日18时，伦敦金现当日上涨超0.5%，价格约为5005美元/盎司。 伦敦金现2月9日走势（截至北京时间2月9日18时） 记者以商家调研身份走访深圳一家贵金属设备生产公司。 一进 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Singapore's high-sulfur spot window has seen a large number of high - price transactions, supporting the high - level oscillation of high - sulfur spot discounts. Geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil has increased significantly in the short term [4]. - The trading strategy suggests a strong oscillation for unilateral trading, paying attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, take profit on the FU59 long - spread at high levels and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; and adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - High - sulfur: Singapore's high - sulfur spot window transactions support high - level oscillation of discounts. Geopolitical and macro - disturbances persist, with fuel export restrictions and concerns in Russia and Iran. China's state - owned procurement volume increase reflects feedstock demand. - Low - sulfur: The Dangote refinery's gasoline unit maintenance delay and the full - scale recovery of Kuwait's Al - Zour refinery have led to an increase in low - sulfur supply and exports [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: Strong oscillation, focus on geopolitical fluctuations. - Arbitrage: Take profit on the FU59 long - spread at high levels; pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread. - Options: Wait - and - see [6] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - Russia: The Tuapse port has resumed exports, and the refinery's processing and export volume are expected to increase in February. In January, high - sulfur fuel oil exports increased by 27% month - on - month and 30% year - on - year [10]. - Mexico: High - sulfur exports are at a historical low. In 2026, with the full - load operation of the Olmeca refinery and the stable operation of the Tula coking unit, high - sulfur exports will decline marginally [18]. - Middle East: Iran's situation is volatile. In January, high - sulfur fuel oil exports were 110 tons, down 10 tons month - on - month and 9% year - on - year. Iraq plans to supply over 6 million tons of high - sulfur fuel oil from January to June 2026 [21]. 3.2.2 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - Feedstock demand: PetroChina has been actively purchasing high - sulfur fuel oil in the Singapore spot window. In January, China's high - sulfur arrivals increased by 5% month - on - month [24]. - Marine fuel demand: Singapore's high - sulfur marine fuel bunkering in December 2025 increased by 14% month - on - month and 15% year - on - year. The proportion of high - sulfur marine fuel consumption continued to increase marginally [27]. 3.2.3 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Supply - Nigeria: The Dangote refinery's RFCC unit restart has been postponed. In January, low - sulfur exports were about 360,000 tons, up 49% month - on - month [30]. - South Sudan: Energy facilities' supply is gradually recovering. In January, exports declined to about 190,000 tons but have room for further growth [31]. - Middle East: The Al - Zour refinery in Kuwait has fully recovered production. In January, low - sulfur fuel oil exports reached a record high of about 1.15 million tons [34]. - Pan - Singapore region: The Balikpapan refinery in Indonesia has completed its transformation and upgrading project, with expected offsetting changes in VLSFO production [37]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Demand - There is no specific driving force. Singapore's low - sulfur marine fuel bunkering in December 2025 increased by 2.4% month - on - month and 15.0% year - on - year, but the proportion decreased by 0.4 percentage points [40]. 3.2.5 Marine Fuel Oil - The proportion of high - sulfur marine fuel demand continues to increase marginally. The Red Sea suspension has indirectly promoted the growth of the high - sulfur marine fuel market share. The installation of desulfurization towers on global ships has accelerated [43]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides various data charts on fuel oil prices, spreads, inventories, etc., including fuel oil spot prices, high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil cross - regional and cross - period spreads, natural gas - fuel oil price ratios, cross - regional freight rates, Singapore bunkering spreads, and fuel oil inventory structures in different regions [47][52][62]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced significant volatility, with buying interest returning and pushing gold prices above $5,000 per ounce, recovering some losses from a historic drop last month [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices saw a maximum increase of 1.7% on Monday, recovering about half of the losses incurred since reaching a historical high on January 29 [6][8]. - Silver prices also increased, with a notable rise of 6% on Monday, bringing the price back above $82 per ounce [8]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical risks, currency devaluation trading, and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have driven precious metal prices to new historical highs [3][8]. - Speculative buying has further fueled the price surge, although this was followed by a significant drop in both gold and silver prices at the end of last month [3][8]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Major banks and asset management firms, including Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock, remain optimistic about gold's rebound, citing long-term demand drivers such as the global reduction of dollar assets and ongoing central bank purchases of gold [3][8]. - Concerns have arisen regarding the concentration risk in U.S. Treasury holdings, leading Chinese regulators to advise financial institutions to limit their positions [3][8]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Traders are focusing on upcoming U.S. economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with the January employment report expected to show signs of labor market stabilization and inflation data to be released later in the week [8].

本文首发于"见闻VIP"作者乐鸣，为见闻付费会员文章，现作为粉丝福利免费试读，欢迎点击阅读原文订阅"见闻VIP"。 欧洲最大资产管理公司、管理资产规模达2.8万亿欧元 （约23万亿元） 的法国东方汇理资产管理公司（Amundi）发出了一个震耳欲聋的信号： 逃离美元资产。 该公司正在 减少对美元资产的投资 ，将 投资重心转向欧洲和新兴市场。 且警告称，如果美国经济政策维持现状，美元将继续走弱。 作为典型的稳健型机构投资者，东方汇理通常不会进行激进的资产配置调整。 此次公开宣布减少美元敞口，并将重心转向欧洲和新兴市场，其背后的深层逻辑究竟是什么？ 东方汇理的角度 首先，我们需要从东方汇理的角度来看这一个问题。 东方汇理作为稳健型投资者， 最厌恶的是不可量化的尾部风险和资产相关性的失效 ，而2026年的美国市场，恰恰呈现出这两种特征的危险趋同。 长期以来，美国国债被视为全球无风险资产的锚，而美元则是对冲地缘政治风险的终极避风港。 然而，东方汇理的首席投资官Vincent Mortier及其研究团队的分析表明，这一假设正在发生质变。 根据东方汇理的预测，2026年美国实际GDP增速将显著放缓至1.6%，远低于2023 ...

Group 1 - The price of physical gold from Mingpai Jewelry is quoted at 1566 CNY per gram on February 9, 2026, an increase of 78 CNY per gram compared to the previous trading day [1][2] - The platinum price is quoted at 836 CNY per gram on the same day, rising by 31 CNY per gram from the previous trading day [1][2] - The gold price on February 6, 2026, was 1482 CNY per gram, indicating a significant upward trend in gold prices over the past few days [3] Group 2 - Diplomatic talks between U.S. and Iranian officials took place in Muscat, Oman, with expectations for further negotiations soon [4] - These diplomatic efforts are occurring against a backdrop of escalating military tensions in the region, with U.S. naval forces gathering near Iran [4] - Iran has issued warnings of a strong response to any potential attacks, highlighting the geopolitical risks that may influence commodity prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs and Bank of America warn that tariff threats and potential aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are undermining the global reserve status of the dollar, leading investors to flock to gold and other safe-haven assets [1][7]. Group 1: Dollar's Performance - In 2025, the dollar experienced its largest annual decline in eight years, with a drop of approximately 9% [2][8]. - Despite a recent rebound, the dollar index is down about 1% year-to-date, continuing the trend from 2025 [2][8]. - The dollar has not recovered from a more than 5% drop following President Trump's announcement of tariffs in April 2025 [2][8]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Policy Uncertainty - Recent policy uncertainties are expected to persist long enough to hinder the dollar's recovery, as investors had initially anticipated more support for the economic cycle [2][8]. - The dollar's status as a reserve currency is increasingly questioned, with suggestions that geopolitical risks and policy uncertainties may lead to a reallocation of assets away from the dollar [2][10]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The market is assessing the potential impact of Kevin Walsh, Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve chair, who is seen as a monetary hawk but may lead to expectations of aggressive rate cuts [3][9]. - Trump indicated that if Walsh showed any interest in raising rates, he would not be nominated, reinforcing expectations of rate cuts [10]. Group 4: Gold and Other Assets - Gold appreciated over 60% in 2025, marking one of the strongest rebounds in history, and remains up over 70% in the past year [4][10]. - Other metals, including silver, platinum, copper, and steel, have also seen price increases alongside gold as demand for hard assets rises [5][11]. Group 5: Currency Trends - Major currencies such as the euro, pound, and Swiss franc have rebounded against the dollar, alongside emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso [6][11]. - Bank of America suggests that it may be premature to label recent currency fluctuations as signs of dollar depreciation, as fundamental factors driving dollar weakness have yet to fully manifest [6][11].