黄金在美元回升前承压，美联储决议成为关键 美国人口普查局周二公布数据显示，8月零售销售连续第三个月强劲增长，增幅达0.6%，高于预期。这表明尽管经济活动放缓、通胀持续以及就业市场疲 软，美国消费者依然保持韧性。 不过，投资者几乎一致预计美联储将在两日会议结束时至少降息25个基点，以支撑走弱的就业市场。此外，市场已消化年内再度降息两次的可能性。除了关 键的降息决定外，市场还将密切关注最新的经济预测以及美联储主席鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上的讲话，以寻找未来降息路径的线索。在此期间，鸽派预期 或继续限制美元涨幅，并为黄金提供支撑。 地缘政治风险支撑避险需求 地缘局势依然紧张。根据《莫斯科时报》报道，乌克兰在夜间袭击了俄罗斯境内最大炼油厂之一。俄罗斯国防部同时宣布，俄军已控制位于第聂伯罗彼得罗 夫斯克地区的Novomykolaivka村，该地靠近顿涅茨克边界。 此外，以色列对加沙城展开已筹划多时的地面进攻，部队深入人口稠密的城区，而该地已连续数周遭受猛烈轰炸。这些事态发展可能进一步限制黄金的下跌 空间。 周三欧洲时段早盘，黄金（XAU/USD）自周二创下的历史高点——3700美元上方——进一步回落，刷新日内低点。美元在 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The price of spot gold has recently experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a historical peak of $3702.93 per ounce before settling at $3689.60, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and geopolitical risks [1][2] - The weakening of the US dollar, which fell by 0.74% to a low of 96.54, has provided additional support for gold prices, making gold cheaper for holders of other currencies [2][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is approaching the $3700 mark, with support levels identified at $3660-3653 and potential upward targets around $3710 and $3750 [4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures have seen a slight decline to $68.46 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures also dropped to $64.51 per barrel, amid concerns over potential supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions [5][6] - The market is anticipating a Federal Reserve interest rate cut of 25 basis points, which is expected to stimulate economic activity and fuel demand [5] - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are currently in a weak consolidation phase, with short-term upward trends expected, particularly if prices break above resistance levels of $66.0-67.0 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The weak performance of US employment data in August, the flat year-on-year rate of core CPI in the consumer inflation, and Trump's continuous pressure or replacement of Fed officials have led more Fed officials to support interest rate cuts. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. Coupled with geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [1] Summary of Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 829.72 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 9,882.00 and an open interest of 208,096.00. The inventory remained unchanged at 53,226.00 (in ten grams) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T+D**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 829.72 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 9,882.00 and an open interest of 208,096.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 3,677.60 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 220,410.00 and an open interest of 385,580.00. The inventory was 39,180,931.12 (in gold ounces) [1] - **London Gold Spot**: On September 16, 2025, the price was 3,632.65 US dollars/ounce [1] - **SPDR Gold ETF Holdings**: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 979.95 tons [1] - **iShare Gold ETF Holdings**: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 464.57 tons [1] - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 10,017.00 yuan/kilogram, with a trading volume of 356,647.00 and an open interest of 195,504.00 [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T+D**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 10,017.00 yuan/kilogram, with a trading volume of 356,647.00 and an open interest of 195,504.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 43.19 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 63,715.00 and an open interest of 134,910.00. The inventory was 518,898,317.13 (in silver ounces) [1] - **London Silver Spot**: On September 16, 2025, the price was 42.69 US dollars/ounce [1] - **US iShare Silver ETF Holdings**: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 15,137.37 tons [1] - **TPSLV Silver ETF Holdings**: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 6,129.64 tons [1] Important Information - Milan has been confirmed as a Fed governor and will participate in this week's interest rate decision. The US Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove a Fed governor, and Cook is allowed to attend this week's interest rate decision [1] - US House Republicans proposed a short-term spending bill to avoid a government shutdown, but ignored the Democrats' healthcare requirements. US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, and real retail sales have increased for 11 consecutive months [1] Trading Strategy - The main strategy is to go long when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,750 - 3,840. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 840 - 850. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 43 - 46. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,300 - 10,500 [1]

Core Viewpoint - A trader has made a significant bearish bet on Brent crude oil, predicting prices will fall below $50 per barrel by the end of the year due to concerns over supply surplus outweighing geopolitical risks [1][6]. Group 1: Bearish Bet on Oil Prices - A notable trade involving $10 million worth of put options was executed, betting that Brent crude oil futures will drop below $50 per barrel before the options expire on December 23 [1][5]. - The trader employed a put spread strategy, buying puts with a strike price of $50 and selling puts with a strike price of $49, potentially turning an initial investment of approximately $350,000 into $10 million if prices fall as predicted [5]. Group 2: Supply Surplus Expectations - The core logic supporting this bearish bet is the expectation of a supply surplus in the global energy market, with analysts predicting a surplus of about 3 million barrels per day in Q4 2023 and Q1 2026 [6]. - Supply growth is anticipated from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers, compounded by potential economic growth suppression from tariffs proposed by former President Trump [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite the bearish sentiment, recent oil price increases challenge the pessimistic outlook, driven by heightened attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine, leading to reassessment of supply disruptions from Moscow [8][10]. - Market sentiment has shifted to a "moderately optimistic" stance, with data indicating that call option premiums have surpassed put option premiums for the first time since July, suggesting increased short-term expectations for price rises [10].

周二，美国三大股指在震荡交投中收低，投资者在美联储公布利率决议前保持谨慎。 截至收盘，道指跌125.18点，跌幅为0.27%，报45758.27点；纳指跌14.79点，跌幅为0.07%，报22333.96点；标普500指数跌8.49点，跌幅为0.13%，报 6606.79点。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.76%。蔚来涨超8%，百度涨超7%，京东、爱奇艺涨超3%，阿里巴巴涨超2%。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储本周降息25个基点的概率为96.1%，降息50个基点的概率为3.9%。美联储10月累计降息25个基点的概率为20.1%，累计降息 50个基点的概率为76.8%，累计降息75个基点的概率为3.1%。 泽连斯基：愿与特朗普和普京会面 但不去莫斯科 截至收盘，纽约商品交易所10月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.22美元，收于64.52美元/桶，涨幅为1.93%；11月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.03 美元，收于68.47美元/桶，涨幅为1.53%。 COMEX黄金期货涨0.31%，报3730.50美元/盎司，盘中涨至3739.90美元/盎司，创历史新高。COMEX白银期货跌0.13% ...

美国总统特朗普一句"预计美联储将大幅降息"，全球市场瞬间沸腾，黄金再次成为最大赢家！9月16日， 伦敦现货黄金价格一度飙升至3690美元/盎司历史新高，3700点关口成为现货黄金多头的下一目标！ 特朗普的"降息风暴"，吹高金价 本轮黄金暴涨的背后，是一场关于美联储利率的"政治博弈"。 当地时间9月14日，美国总统特朗普对记者公开表示，预计美联储将在本周会议上宣布"大幅降息"。 这番 预告立即引发市场震荡，黄金板块应声而起。 在地缘政治方面，特朗普保证立即解决的乌克兰战争和巴勒斯坦加沙地区战争没有取得解决问题的进展， 这也是周期性地让市场不安的因素。不仅个人投资者，全球央行也继续增持黄金。世界黄金协会数据显 示，今年第二季度，各经济体央行共增储黄金166吨。 金价还能涨多久？现在还能上车吗？ 面对如此高位，很多投资者都在问：现在还能上车吗？ 多家机构认为，在美联储降息落地前，黄金可能还会维持强势。从中长期来看，国际金价仍处于震荡上行 通道。 政策不确定性及地缘政治风险使市场避险需求持续存在，避险情绪将为金价提供长期支撑。 同 时，全球央行黄金配置意愿仍较强。 本周四（9月18日）凌晨2:00，美联储议息来临，巨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Strategy analysis: Hold [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is gradually exiting the seasonal travel peak season. Currently, EIA data shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories have increased more than expected, and the increase in refined oil inventories has exceeded expectations. The overall oil product inventory continues to rise. However, the US refinery operating rate has rebounded slightly by 0.6 percentage points and remains relatively high. On September 7, OPEC+ officially stated that eight countries decided to adjust the production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, starting from October 2025. This 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions and will be carried out gradually. The eight OPEC+ countries will hold their next meeting on October 5, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The latest IEA monthly report has further increased the expected surplus of crude oil. Saudi Aramco has lowered the shipping price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, to Asia in October by $1 per barrel. Currently, after the discount of Russian crude oil has widened, India continues to import Russian crude oil, and India and the US are still in negotiations. Attention should be paid to the progress of the ceasefire agreement negotiation between Russia and Ukraine and India's procurement of Russian crude oil. As the subsequent consumption peak season is coming to an end, the weak US non-farm payroll data has raised concerns about crude oil demand, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. The supply and demand of crude oil will weaken, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium and long term. In the short term, the sharp decline in crude oil prices has partially released the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting, and the market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil. In addition, countries such as Iraq have submitted the latest compensation plans, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, of which the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, alleviating the pressure of increased supply. Israel's attack on the Hamas ceasefire negotiation delegation in Qatar has increased the geopolitical risk in the Middle East, and Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Crude oil is oscillating, and it is recommended to hold for now [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Today, the main contract of crude oil futures, the 2510 contract, rose 1.15% to 493.6 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 486.8 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 495.2 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 3,109 to 13,395 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. Additionally, EIA has raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.22 per barrel to $67.80 per barrel. However, EIA predicts that the Brent crude oil price will drop to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and maintain the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel. OPEC has maintained its forecast for the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has raised its forecast for the global oil supply growth in 2025 by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and increased the forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 60,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day [3] - On the evening of September 10, US EIA data showed that for the week ending September 5, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.939 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 1.04 million barrels, and were 2.83% lower than the five-year average; gasoline inventories increased by 1.458 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 243,000 barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 4.715 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 35,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 365,000 barrels. The EIA data shows that crude oil and gasoline inventories have increased more than expected, and the increase in refined oil inventories has exceeded expectations. The overall oil product inventory continues to rise [3] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, the latest OPEC monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in July was revised down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day, and its production in August 2025 increased by 478,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 27.948 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the increase in production in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 72,000 barrels per day to 13.495 million barrels per day in the week of September 5. Currently, US crude oil production has decreased by 136,000 barrels per day from the all-time high set in early December last year [4] - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four-week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.888 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.76% compared with the same period last year, and the increase compared with the same period last year has decreased. Among them, the weekly gasoline demand decreased by 6.68% month-on-month to 8.508 million barrels per day, and the four-week average demand was 8.927 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.58% compared with the same period last year; the weekly diesel demand decreased by 10.38% month-on-month to 3.377 million barrels per day, and the four-week average demand was 3.813 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.01% compared with the same period last year. Both gasoline and diesel demand decreased month-on-month, driving the single-week supply of US crude oil products to continue to decrease by 4.22% month-on-month [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Amid geopolitical factors, oil prices are expected to oscillate within a high - end range. Supply - side contradictions are prominent, with geopolitical risk premiums offsetting OPEC+ production increases. On the demand side, seasonal weakness coexists with Asian resilience, resulting in insufficient one - way driving forces. Before the Fed meeting, market caution will suppress risk appetite. Short - term oil prices may continue to oscillate at the upper end of the range, with risks of impulse - type increases due to geopolitical conflicts and corrections under macro - negative pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - On September 15, 2025, crude oil futures prices showed differentiation. The SC main contract closed at 488.1 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent maintained narrow - range fluctuations. The SC - Brent spread dropped from $2.36/barrel on September 12 to - $0.15/barrel, indicating a significant narrowing of the domestic crude oil premium over the external market, even turning into a discount. The Brent - WTI spread strengthened to $4.77/barrel, a recent high, reflecting the support of geopolitical risks on European oil prices. The SC - WTI spread narrowed to $4.62/barrel, suggesting a compression of inter - regional arbitrage space [2]. 3.1.2 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, but its complex policies and geopolitical situations (especially supply concerns caused by sanctions on Russia) have two - way disturbances on the crude oil supply side. India's oil imports in August reached $13.2 billion, showing the resilience of Asian demand. Its imports may partially replace sanctioned Russian oil, alleviating the supply gap pressure. The impact of marginal changes in US shale oil drilling activities and tightened financial conditions on production remains to be observed [3]. - **Demand**: US oil demand is undergoing a seasonal transformation, weakening after the summer travel peak. Refineries entering the maintenance season may suppress short - term demand. Shrinking refined oil profits and expectations of Fed rate hikes suppress speculative demand, and market concerns about economic slowdown persist. However, high - level imports from emerging markets such as India may partially offset the weakening demand pressure in Europe and the US [4]. - **Inventory**: Current inventory data for Cushing and US commercial crude oil has not been updated, but the risk of an oil market surplus (accumulation of OECD country inventories) is gradually increasing. The US strategic petroleum reserve release plan may further increase market supply. Geopolitical risks leading to the reshaping of trade flows may cause inventory fluctuations in non - OECD countries [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: SC rose by 2.69% to 488.1 yuan/barrel, WTI increased by 0.27% to $62.77/barrel, and Brent rose by 0.88% to $67.47/barrel. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices showed changes, with Oman rising by 1.71% to $70.95/barrel and Dubai rising by 2.13% to $71.12/barrel. - **Spreads**: The SC - Brent spread increased by 806.67% to $1.06/barrel, the SC - WTI spread increased by 39.47% to $5.76/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread increased by 9.1% to $4.70/barrel. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.30% to 97.32, the S&P 500 increased by 0.47% to 6,615.28 points, and the DAX index increased by 0.21% to 23,748.86 points. - **Inventory and开工**: US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.94% to 42,464.60 million barrels, Cushing inventory decreased by 1.51% to 2,385.70 million barrels, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 0.64% to 94.90% [8]. 3.2.2 Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: FU rose by 3.02% to 2,799 yuan/ton, LU increased by 3.31% to 3,375 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil increased by 1.65% to 232.90 cents/gallon. - **Spot and Paper Prices**: Some prices remained unchanged, while the Russian M100 CIF price increased by 2.03% to $452/ton. - **Spreads**: The Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 4.73% to 576 yuan/ton, and the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread increased by 5.53% to - 1,845 yuan/ton. - **Inventory**: Some inventory data showed decreases, such as Singapore's inventory decreasing by 3.18% to 2,652.80 million [9]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: On September 15, India's trade ministry reported that India's oil imports in August reached $13.2 billion and gold imports reached $514 million [10]. - **Market Information**: OPEC+ continues to increase production but with complex policies. Geopolitical situations have resurfaced. The crude oil price strengthened and consolidated last week with limited amplitude. This week, the market will continue to focus on geopolitical developments. Supply concerns caused by sanctions on Russia still support the oil market, but the seasonal transformation of US oil demand and the prospect of an oil market surplus will continue to exert pressure. With the Fed meeting approaching, the market is cautious, and crude oil prices are expected to remain in consolidation with continued volatility [12]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to WTI, Brent, and SC contract prices and spreads, US crude oil production, refinery operating rates, and fuel oil prices and inventories, with data sources from WIND, EIA, iFinD, etc. [13][15][17]

Group 1 - The strong upward trend of gold is facing short-term correction risks, with analysts warning of a potential 5%-6% pullback, but the long-term bullish foundation remains solid, with expectations of surpassing $4000 per ounce by 2026 [1][4][6] - Factors driving the continuous rise in gold prices include widespread expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and concerns over the Fed's independence, combined with strong demand from central banks [2][5] - Analysts indicate that gold has entered an "unknown territory" after rapidly breaking through the $3400 and $3500 levels, suggesting that the market may experience a pullback after the current rally, which could present a buying opportunity for investors waiting on the sidelines [3][4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic fundamentals supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold remain unchanged, with strong market demand reflected in price predictions being reached faster than expected [4][5] - Key factors supporting the long-term bull market for gold include anticipated monetary policy easing, ongoing geopolitical risks, and robust official and investment demand, particularly from central banks and ETFs [5][6] - Analysts provide optimistic long-term price forecasts, with expectations of gold prices reaching around $3800 by the end of this year and potentially exceeding $4000 by 2026, with some predicting prices could rise to $4200 [6] Group 3 - Silver has also performed strongly, reaching approximately $42.73 per ounce, a 14-year high, driven by both its investment and industrial attributes [7][10] - The rise in silver prices is supported by solid fundamentals, including strong physical demand in electronics and solar panels, along with concerns over supply shortages [10]

| 周生生 PROMESSA | 周生生 (how Sang Sang MINTYGREEN EMPHASIS | MARCO BICEGO | 劳力士 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 金价(人民币) | | 足金饰品(每克) | 器用 | | ¥1091 | | | 换金价 | | 1951 | | | 换珠宝价 | | ¥951 | | 950铂金饰品(每克) | 奏出 | | ¥564 | | | 换金价 | | ¥453 | | 生生金宝(每克) | 楽 | | 4966 | | | CHOW TAI FOOK | | | | | 周大福 | | | | 全部商品 播嫁 | CTF for YOU定制 | | 企业业务 | 更新于2025年09月16日 09:24:52 原油期货方面，投资者担心，地缘政治风险可能会扰乱全球原油供应，国际油价周一小幅上涨。截至当 天收盘，纽约商品交易所10月交货的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶63.30美元，涨幅为0.97%；11月交货的 伦敦布伦特原油期货价格收于每桶67.44美元，涨幅为0.67%。 16日早间，国际金价持续走高，现 ...