证券研究报告 | 2025年06月09日 公用环保 202506 第 2 期 优于大市 国家能源局组织开展新型电力系统建设第一批试点工作，2025 年 4 月工业级混 合油（UCO）出口量价双升 市场回顾：本周沪深 300 指数上涨 0.88%，公用事业指数下跌 0.13%，环 保指数上涨 0.46%，周相对收益率分别为-1.01%和-0.42%。电力板块子 板块中，火电下跌 0.97%；水电下跌 1.47%，新能源发电下跌 0.45%；水 务板块上涨 0.16%；燃气板块上涨 1.18%；检测服务板块上涨 0.98%。 重要事件：国家能源局组织开展新型电力系统建设第一批试点工作。要求聚 焦新型电力系统有关前沿方向，依托典型项目开展单一方向试点，依托 典型城市开展多方向综合试点，探索新型电力系统建设新技术、新模式， 推动新型电力系统建设取得突破。坚持重点突破；坚持因地制宜；坚持 创新引领，鼓励采用新技术、新模式；坚持全程管理，做好试点项目的 申报优选、组织实施、效果评估、推广应用等全过程管理。提出了关于 构网型技术、系统友好型新能源电站、智能微电网、算力与电力协同、 虚拟电厂、大规模高比例新能源外送、新一代煤 ...

上海交通大学党委常委、副校长蒋兴浩：全球气候治理进入关键十年，能源体系革命性的重塑已成大势 所趋，如何以科技为刃，以创新为篱，开辟绿色低碳转型的新路径，是时代赋予我们的共同课题。 中国远洋海运集团有限公司科技创新工作本部总经理辜忠东：当前，船用清洁能源的路径仍面临很大的 不确定性，航运脱碳面临着巨大的压力。为此，产学研用深度合作就显得尤为重要。 第一财经常务副总经理杜坚：企业是实现双碳目标的主体力量。越来越多的企业正从"要我减排"转 向"我要减排"，以绿色技术突破，抢占产业变革先机，以碳管理能力提升构筑新竞争力。 中国工程院院士、清华大学碳中和研究院院长贺克斌：当我们为实现碳中和走向新能源时，实际上，我 们也在解决现有化石能源在未来数百年后会用光的紧迫问题，可再生能源会使我们的资源量得到更可持 续的保障。 上海市发展和改革委员会副主任朱明林：上海能源的绿色转型需要深度融入国家战略，我们抓好"一东 一西"两个绿电的超级工程，一方面向西融入沙戈荒战略，另一方面向东融入海洋强国国家战略。 国家气候变化专家委员会副主任王毅：建立新型能源体系和新型电力系统要先立后破，但是不立就永远 破不了，这个立是非常艰难的改革，不仅 ...

2025年6月6日，在2025上海国际碳中和技术、产品与成果博览会（简称"碳博会"）上，安永（中国）企业咨询有限公司合伙人邬嘉烨探讨AI与能源的发 展情况。 安永[1]战略与交易咨询合伙人邬嘉烨在安永展台做了主题演讲，分析了人工智能与能源领域的深度融合，探讨AI在能源生产、分配、传输与消费等环节 的国内外的创新应用与业界实践。分享AI如何助力能源行业实现智能化转型，提升能源效率，降低运营成本，并重构行业底层逻辑。此外，邬嘉烨也展 望了AI对能源转型发展带来的重要意义和目前面临的主要挑战，并呼吁可以通过逐步落实AI与企业的融合，拥抱AI带来的革命性变革新机遇。 随着全球碳中和进程加速，能源结构转型也迫在眉睫。与此同时，人工智能领域正经历一场由中国力量引领的开源革命：2025年，DeepSeek以"低成本、 高性能、广开源"破局，用户量飙升至1.25亿，大幅降低AI应用门槛。政策层面，中国首次将"人工智能+"写入2024年《政府工作报告》，《国家人工智能 产业综合标准化体系建设指南》《人工智能安全治理框架》1.0版相继出台，各省市扶持政策密集落地，为AI赋能能源注入澎湃动能。据机构预测，中国 人工智能市场规模预计 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（5.3~6.6） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铝上周震荡运行，上周主力合约收平，周五收盘报20070元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国内房 地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，中美关税确定性仍存。国内基本 面上，需求进入淡季，等待消费复苏。上周LME库存363850吨，较前周出现小幅减少，SHFE周库存减 6268吨至118165吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Group 1 - A-shares indices opened higher, with sectors like pharmaceuticals, defense, and solid-state batteries leading the gains, while home appliances, real estate, and food & beverage sectors weakened [1] - The China Securities Index for the New Energy ETF Huaxia (159368) rose by 1.24%, with constituent stocks such as Mannesmann and Xian Dao Intelligent increasing over 5% [1] - Recent breakthroughs in solid-state battery research revealed the soft-short circuit to hard-short circuit transition mechanism at the nanoscale, which could accelerate the adoption of solid-state batteries over traditional lithium batteries [1] Group 2 - The New Energy ETF Huaxia (159368) is the only ETF tracking the New Energy Index in the market, covering solar, wind, biomass, nuclear energy, and components of the new energy vehicle industry [2] - The management fee for the New Energy ETF Huaxia (159368) is 0.15%, with a custody fee of 0.05%, totaling a low cost of 0.2%, making it accessible for investors [2] - The Carbon Neutrality ETF (159790) is the largest fund in the market focused on carbon neutrality themes, tracking the low-carbon economy index and benefiting from national carbon peak and neutrality goals [2]

Core Viewpoint - Skyworth Group achieved a remarkable annual revenue of 69.031 billion yuan in 2023, marking a 29.1% year-on-year increase, driven primarily by its burgeoning renewable energy business, particularly household photovoltaic systems [1][4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The total revenue for Skyworth Group in 2023 was 69.031 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 9.645 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.5% increase from the previous year [1]. - The revenue growth of 29.1% is notable given the maturity of the domestic home appliance industry and the challenges posed by a declining population [1][4]. Group 2: Renewable Energy Business - The renewable energy segment, particularly household photovoltaic systems, contributed significantly to the revenue growth, accounting for 11.452 billion yuan of the total increase [4]. - Skyworth entered the renewable energy sector in 2020 and has rapidly ascended to become one of the top three players in the domestic household photovoltaic market, with revenue skyrocketing from zero to over 20 billion yuan in just three years [4][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The rapid growth of the photovoltaic market is supported by national policies and a surge in distributed photovoltaic installations, with installed capacity increasing from 10.12 GW in 2020 to 43.5 GW in 2023 [6][9]. - Despite a price drop in photovoltaic components, which halved from 1.8 yuan per watt, the profitability of photovoltaic projects improved, stimulating downstream installation demand [9]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The household photovoltaic market is becoming increasingly competitive, with various players vying for "roof resources," which are crucial for installation [11]. - Skyworth's strategy includes offering high commissions to channel partners, which has pressured competitors and affected overall industry profit margins [11][10]. Group 5: Future Challenges - As competition intensifies, Skyworth faces challenges in maintaining its growth trajectory in the photovoltaic sector, with predictions of a slowdown in growth rates for 2024 [13][14]. - The company is exploring upstream production of photovoltaic inverters and expanding into commercial photovoltaic and energy storage sectors to diversify its business [14].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Province has maintained excellent ecological environment quality in 2024, ranking among the top in the country, emphasizing the balance between high-quality development and ecological protection [1][4]. Group 1: Air Quality Improvement - Nine central cities and 88 counties in Guizhou achieved air quality standards, with an average of 99.1% of days being classified as good air quality [3]. - Guizhou's air quality ranking is fourth among 168 key cities in the nation, attributed to a comprehensive air quality monitoring system and proactive environmental management [4]. - The province has implemented a series of measures to improve air quality, including industrial restructuring and pollution control, with a focus on sustainable development [5]. Group 2: Water Quality Management - The overall water quality in Guizhou is rated as excellent, with a 99.1% good quality rate for major rivers and 100% for drinking water sources [7]. - The province has undertaken significant river basin management initiatives, leading to improved water quality and recognition as a model for beautiful rivers and lakes [8]. Group 3: Solid Waste Management - In 2024, Guizhou produced 13,266.14 million tons of industrial solid waste, with 8,838.25 million tons being utilized and 1,880.72 million tons disposed of [10]. - The province is implementing pilot projects for the comprehensive utilization of coal gangue, aiming to convert waste into land and restore ecological balance [11]. - Guizhou is advancing the comprehensive management of various industrial solid wastes, focusing on resource recovery and environmental protection [12].

Core Viewpoint - The realization of ecological product value is a key path to implement the concept of "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets" and is an important measure to overcome environmental externality issues [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Advantages - The Central Committee has elevated the realization of ecological product value to a common will and action program for the entire party and nation, emphasizing the enhancement of ecological product production capacity as a vital component of productivity [2]. - Major national strategies have comprehensively arranged the promotion of ecological product value realization, integrating it into national five-year plans and key national strategies such as rural revitalization and carbon neutrality [2]. - New laws, including the Grassland Law and Forest Law, provide legal guarantees for ecological resource protection and compensation, establishing a basic institutional framework for ecological protection compensation [3]. Group 2: People-Centric Approach - The realization of ecological product value significantly contributes to improving people's livelihoods and meeting their expectations for a good ecological environment, reflecting the Party's commitment to serving the people [4]. - The average PM2.5 concentration in cities at or above the prefecture level is projected to reach 29.3 micrograms per cubic meter by 2024, with 90.4% of national surface water quality monitoring points meeting good quality standards [4]. - The principle of benefiting the people through ecology is being implemented through ecological engineering projects and the establishment of ecological positions, which enhance farmers' incomes and improve living standards [4]. Group 3: Concentrated Efforts - The national system's inherent advantages in addressing market failures due to environmental externalities enable the mobilization of social forces to establish a collaborative mechanism for ecological product value realization [5]. - Various pilot demonstrations and practices are being conducted at both national and local levels to promote ecological product value realization, such as the "Lishui Mountain Farming" brand in Zhejiang and the "Forest Ecological Bank" in Fujian [5][6]. - Different industries are actively promoting the transformation of ecological advantages into industrial advantages, integrating ecological elements into agricultural, water conservancy, and financial sectors [6]. Group 4: Reform and Innovation - Establishing a mechanism for ecological product value realization is a pioneering reform task that addresses challenges such as measurement, transaction, and monetization difficulties [7]. - The establishment of a clear property rights system and a diversified ecological protection compensation mechanism is underway, enhancing the operational framework for ecological product development [7]. - Local governments are innovating mechanisms like "ecological banks" and trading systems for forest coverage rates to improve resource utilization and promote ecological capital [7]. Group 5: Future Directions - The successful practices and achievements in realizing ecological product value demonstrate the significant advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics [8]. - There is a need to continue leveraging institutional advantages to develop a sustainable and market-oriented ecological product value realization model, contributing Chinese wisdom and solutions to global environmental issues [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the energy sector, indicating a positive outlook despite geopolitical risks and supply concerns [1]. Core Insights - Oil prices have increased due to supply disruptions caused by wildfires in Canada, which have shut down approximately 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production, representing about 7% of the country's oil output [11]. - The report highlights that geopolitical events, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict and the Russia-Ukraine situation, continue to support oil prices [11]. - The Brent crude oil price reached $67.47 per barrel, up 4.35% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil price was $63.35 per barrel, up 3.53% week-on-week [11]. - The report suggests that the demand for oil is expected to improve as tariff negotiations progress, which may alleviate investor concerns about demand [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - **Crude Oil**: Global oil and gas capital expenditures have declined significantly since the Paris Agreement in 2015, with a notable drop of nearly 122% from 2014 highs. This has led to cautious capital spending among major oil companies, limiting supply recovery in the short term [9][32]. - **Coal**: The report notes stable coal prices at ports, with the average price of Qinhuangdao port coal (Q5500) at 609.25 RMB per ton, down 0.29% week-on-week. The overall coal supply remains sufficient despite some production cuts [12][13]. - **Coke**: The report indicates that coke prices have remained stable, with a price of 1410 RMB per ton. However, demand from downstream steel mills is weak, leading to expectations of further price reductions [14][15]. - **Natural Gas**: The EU plans to ban Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027, which has faced opposition from France and Belgium. The average price of NYMEX natural gas increased by 9.5% to $3.72 per million British thermal units [16][17]. - **Oil Services**: The oil service sector is expected to see a recovery in activity due to increased capital expenditures driven by high oil prices and supportive policies [18][19]. 2. Major Energy Price Changes - The Huachuang Chemical Industry Index is reported at 76.13, down 2.11% week-on-week and down 24.46% year-on-year. The industry price percentile is at 20.34%, indicating a significant decline [20][22]. - The report summarizes that the largest price increases were seen in U.S. natural gas (+9.5%) and Brent crude oil (+4.3%), while the largest declines were in port coke (-3.4%) and Shanxi coke (-2.9%) [28][30].

Group 1 - The central government has issued opinions to enhance the market-oriented allocation system for resource and environmental factors, focusing on expanding the national carbon emission trading market's coverage and trading varieties [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a work plan for the carbon emission trading market, marking the operational phase of the market's expansion to include the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries [1] - The quality of greenhouse gas emission data is crucial for determining carbon emission quotas and compliance, serving as the foundation for the healthy development of the carbon market [1] Group 2 - The national carbon market's construction requires unified basic institutional rules, with common requirements identified across the power generation, cement, steel, and aluminum smelting industries regarding greenhouse gas emission data quality management [2] - Differences exist in data quality management requirements between the manufacturing industries (cement, steel, aluminum) and the public utility sector (power generation), particularly in accounting boundaries and emission sources [2][4] - The aluminum smelting industry includes additional greenhouse gases beyond carbon dioxide, while the cement and steel industries focus solely on carbon dioxide emissions [4] Group 3 - The measurement of key parameters in the expanded industries relies on calculating carbon content based on the lower heating value, differing from the direct measurement approach used in the power generation sector [3] - The cement and steel industries have higher requirements for detecting lower heating values, necessitating accredited testing institutions for sampling and analysis [3] Group 4 - As the carbon market expands, the number of enterprises and the scale of emissions covered will significantly increase, necessitating differentiated strategies for data quality management across industries [5] - Recommendations include developing tailored capacity enhancement plans for different industries, focusing on measurement, detection, and reporting processes [5][6] Group 5 - Emphasis on training and education for personnel involved in greenhouse gas emission data quality management is essential, with specialized training tailored to various roles within the industry [6][7] - Companies should prioritize data quality management as a key aspect of their operations, establishing internal mechanisms and responsibilities for carbon market compliance [7] Group 6 - The growth of the carbon market has led to the emergence of green low-carbon service industries, which require standardization and quality improvement to mitigate risks associated with service delivery [8] - The establishment of a third-party service market for carbon measurement and verification is crucial, along with the development of service standards and quality assessment mechanisms [8]