交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-5-13 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：4月官方PMI为 49%，较3月下降1.5个百分点，财新PMI录得 50.4%，较3月下降0.8 个百分点，均为近几个月新低。宏观方面，4月28日央行表态"适时降准降息"，市场对流动性 宽松预期升温，5月12日，中方宣布此前中美会谈取得重要共识，发布联合声明，暂停或取消4月 以来的关税。供需端，农膜淡季，停车厂家增多，整体需求下滑，受关税影响制品出口需求减弱。 当前LL交割品现货价7200（-20），基本面整体中性 • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差224，升贴水比例3.2%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存63.6万吨（+16.9），偏空； • 4. 盘面： ...

Group 1 - Private equity funds in the A-share market have performed well despite ongoing market fluctuations, with an average return of 2.52% as of April 30, 2023, and 69.82% of products achieving positive returns [1] - Multi-asset strategy products have led the market with an average return of 2.87%, surpassing the overall market average, and 70.84% of these products reported positive returns [1] - Stock strategy products also showed strong performance, with an average return of 2.56% and 67.89% of products achieving positive returns, driven by a recovery in the A-share market in April [1] Group 2 - Bond strategy products lagged behind with an average return of 1.87%, but 83.44% of these products still achieved positive returns [2] - Combination funds reported an average return of 2.10%, with 81.02% of products achieving positive returns [2] - Market analysts suggest that ongoing macroeconomic events, such as the US-China tariff negotiations, will continue to create investment opportunities, emphasizing the importance of sector-specific research and stock selection [2] Group 3 - The recent monetary policy easing, including interest rate cuts, is viewed as a short-term positive factor for the market, but long-term effects will depend on the actual economic performance [3] - Historical trends indicate that the impact of monetary policy changes on the market can vary, with initial reactions often leading to volatility before potential reversals occur [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the banking industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - Recent monetary policy adjustments, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, are expected to stabilize market expectations and provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2][3] - The establishment of financial asset investment companies by three joint-stock banks aims to enhance their ability to serve the real economy, although it may put pressure on their capital and asset quality [4][5] - The banking sector is viewed positively, with a focus on high dividend investment opportunities, particularly in undervalued banks such as China Merchants Bank and Agricultural Bank of China [1] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of policies to support market stability, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates [2][3] - Specific measures include reducing the LPR by approximately 0.1 percentage points and adjusting various structural monetary policy tool rates [2] Financial Asset Investment Companies - Three joint-stock banks are in the process of establishing financial asset investment companies to enhance their service capabilities for the real economy [4] - This move is seen as a response to the slowing credit growth among joint-stock banks and aims to optimize corporate capital structures [5] Market Performance - The banking sector index increased by 1.88% this week, while the overall A-share index rose by 2.74%, indicating a slight underperformance of the banking sector [12] - Among different types of banks, joint-stock banks showed a notable increase of 3.79%, while state-owned banks experienced a decline of 0.89% [12][19] Individual Bank Performance - All A-share banks saw an increase in stock prices, with joint-stock banks leading the gains, particularly Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and China Merchants Bank [19][21] - The average price-to-book (P/B) ratio for state-owned banks is 0.67X, while joint-stock banks have a lower average P/B of 0.54X [21] Bond Market and Financing - The bond market saw a total financing of 1.749 trillion yuan this week, with net financing increasing significantly compared to the previous week [44] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit reached 857.9 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial increase in issuance volume [59]

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 05 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 昨日，A 股市场涨幅明显，Wind 全 A 上涨 1.3%，成交额 1.34 万亿元。中证 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 1000 指数上涨 1.4%，中证 500 指数上涨 1.26%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.16%， | | | | 上证 50 指数上涨 0.69%。中美发布联合声明，为后续进一步贸易协商奠定良 | | | | 好开局，超过市场预期。近期三部门召开联合新闻发布会，央行宣布降准降 | | | | 息政策，降低企业负债端成本。金融监管总局强调将大力推动中长期资金入 | | | | 市，通过类平准基金的方式支持、稳定和活跃资本市场，具体措施包括鼓励 | | | 股指 | 保险资金加大入市力度、设立新的金融资产投资公司、支持汇金公司在必要 | 震荡 | | | 时增持股票指数基金等。证监会表示将优化主动权益类基金的收费模式，扭 | | | | 转基金公司"旱涝保收"的现象。内部政策发力是股指 2025 年的主线。财 | | | | 报方面，一季度，A ...

热点报告—锌 [★Ta宏bl观e_面Su：mm宏a观ry]利多阶段性出清，关税缓和递延需求走弱预期 关税缓和有几率带动锌终端需求发动新一轮抢出口，需求走弱预 期将有所递延。但即便排除关税，海外反倾销举措、买单出口等 因素依然会对锌下游出口形成压制。国内降准降息落地后，到下 一次联储降息前或存在政策真空期，宏观利多基本阶段性出清。 利多阶段性出清，基本面拐点将至 ★供应端：国内供应维持偏强释放预期 有 色 金 1Q25 海外出矿表现较好，大型项目和新项目增复产相对顺利， 部分海外炼厂进行主动减产，后续或有更多锌矿能流入国内。按 现有原料库存来估算，即便炼厂维持 4 月高位产量，矿端也难在 三季度中期前出现明显紧缺。在原料充裕和利润修复的双重支撑 下，炼厂具有较强的开工动能，预计 5 月下旬锌锭产量将有所修 复，且比价打开时间和幅度略超预期，后续或有更多进口锌流入。 属 ★需求端：内需承压预期递延而非消除 宏观来看，目前锌需求处于季节性走弱过程中。中观来看，新增 专项债实际发行规模和速度不及预期，基建实物工作量表现偏弱 且后续增量有限，关税缓和对耐用消费品的提振仍需持续观察。 微观来看，下游厂商受关税缓和刺激和担 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds last week was 371 billion, 105.5 billion, and 102.1 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 195.6 billion, 67.2 billion, and -27.5 billion [1] - The total issuance scale of non-financial credit bonds was 163.7 billion, with a net financing amount of 3 billion [1] Group 2: Liquidity Tracking - Last week, the net withdrawal through reverse repos was 781.7 billion, with funds initially tightening and then loosening [3] - This week, there will be 836.1 billion in reverse repos and 125 billion in MLF maturing, while government bond issuance will accelerate alongside the release of 1 trillion in reserve requirement cuts [3] Group 3: Policy and Fundamentals - The central bank announced a reserve requirement cut of 50 basis points, a policy interest rate cut of 10 basis points, and a 25 basis point cut for structural tools [4] - In April, dollar-denominated exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, while CPI was -0.1% and PPI was -2.7%, both in line with expectations [4] Group 4: Equity Market - A-shares rose again last week due to post-holiday effects, US-China negotiations, and the India-Pakistan conflict, with major indices recovering all losses since the trade war began in April [6] - The total A-share financing balance reached 1,797.138 billion, an increase of 5.833 billion compared to April 29 [6] Group 5: Debt Market Strategy Outlook - The first quarter monetary policy report indicates a shift towards encouraging banks to increase credit issuance, suggesting a continued loose liquidity environment [7] - The market is concerned about the impact of tariff shocks on exports, but there is a clear supportive policy stance expected to hedge against export declines [7]

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has seen a decline of 0.44%, with the latest price at 123.26 yuan, indicating active market trading with a turnover of 13.45% and a transaction volume of 2.166 billion yuan [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 16.023 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 155 million yuan [2] - The leverage funds are actively participating, with the latest margin buying amounting to 213 million yuan and a margin balance of 220 million yuan [2] Group 2 - Recent US-China trade talks in Geneva resulted in a joint statement that includes a 90-day suspension of tariffs on 24% of Chinese goods, while retaining a 10% tariff on these products [2] - The positive outcomes of the trade negotiations have exceeded market expectations, potentially improving short-term risk appetite and pushing interest rates upward, although the effects of monetary easing policies have yet to fully materialize [2] - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year government bonds, serving as a benchmark for investment performance [3] Group 3 - The 30-year Treasury ETF is considered a good tool for portfolio management, offering low trading thresholds and high trading efficiency, with a minimum trading unit of 100 shares, approximately 10,000 yuan [3] - The ETF allows for immediate transactions and T+0 intra-day trading, supported by multiple market makers providing liquidity [3]

Core Viewpoint - A comprehensive set of financial policies has been introduced, indicating that the country has sufficient policy reserves and will flexibly adjust according to internal and external conditions to stabilize the market and maintain confidence [1][10]. Policy Implementation - The first interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio reduction of the year have been implemented, along with the establishment of a service consumption and pension refinancing tool, and reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and ChiNext [2][3]. - The new financial policies are characterized by rapid implementation, with the interest rate cut announced on May 7 and executed the next day, while the reserve requirement ratio was adjusted shortly thereafter [2][4]. Focus Areas - The policies target five key areas: real estate, stock market, service consumption, technological innovation, and corporate relief, shifting the focus from merely supporting to building a solid foundation for growth [2][3][8]. - The emphasis is on preventing economic downturns while also boosting consumption, stabilizing foreign trade, and supporting technological innovation [3][4]. Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The introduction of structural monetary policy tools aims to enhance the effectiveness of financial support for key sectors, with five out of ten new monetary policies being structural in nature [8][9]. - The new refinancing tools include a focus on service consumption and pension sectors, with a total of 500 billion yuan allocated to stimulate these areas [7][9]. Economic Circulation - The policies aim to improve the circulation between residents and enterprises by lowering financing costs and increasing bank credit supply capabilities [7][8]. - The reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [4][5]. Future Policy Space - There is potential for further policy tools to be introduced if internal and external conditions necessitate, with a focus on enhancing fiscal and monetary policy coordination [10][11]. - The government is expected to accelerate the issuance of special bonds and adjust high-risk debt areas to stimulate local investment [11].

工业硅日报 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 05 月 13 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA/MEG） ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market in May is expected to move forward amidst fluctuations. The benchmark expectation is that the central bank will continue to guide the capital interest rate closer to the policy rate after the interest rate cut. The subsequent trend of monetary policy may depend on the fundamental state, and there is a possibility of further policy rate cuts if there are no fiscal incremental measures in the short term. The bond market environment is more favorable compared to the beginning of April [2][3] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. The capital interest rate center is expected to continue to move closer to the policy rate after the interest rate cut - The conditions for "opportunistically cutting the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate" have emerged, and the Politburo meeting in April mentioned "timely cutting the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate." The central bank announced a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut of 0.5% and a 10BP reduction in the policy rate to 1.4% on May 7, earlier than market expectations [6][7] - Market adjustments often occur after the implementation of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, mainly due to the increase in capital interest rates after the interest rate cut or the strengthening of fiscal policies. The actual state of the capital side after the implementation of this reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut may be the key factor affecting the bond market performance in May [8] - Before the implementation of this reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut, the capital interest rate had been above the policy rate since January. Although it began to gradually return to the policy rate in March, the average DR007 in April was still more than 20BP above the OMO rate. The central bank's interest rate cut may be to support the real economy and boost market confidence, and the capital interest rate is expected to follow the policy rate down [11][12] - After the interest rate cut, the capital interest rate has declined, but the increase in bank net financing is relatively moderate, and the capital gap index is at a neutral and low level. The central bank is expected to continue to guide the capital interest rate to the 1.5%-1.6% range, but further observation of the central bank's operations is needed [13] 2. The monetary policy implementation report is more of a summary of the Q1 state, and the overall trend of monetary policy is still in the process of easing - The Q1 monetary policy implementation report did not mention the May reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut and had little mention of the impact of US tariffs on monetary policy. It is considered more of a summary of the previous quarter's monetary policy state [18][19] - Some information in the report may explain why the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts did not occur in the first quarter, such as the need to strengthen bond market construction and macro - prudential management, and the fact that the relationship between money and prices is affected by multiple factors. The central bank's cautious attitude towards monetary easing and its expectation of fiscal expansion are not the core factors determining short - term monetary policy operations [20][22] - After the tightening of the capital side in Q1, the weighted average interest rates of new loans and personal housing loans increased slightly, which deviated from the goal of reducing the comprehensive financing cost of society. In the context of escalating trade frictions, the domestic economy faces greater uncertainty, which may be the main reason for the May reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The subsequent trend of monetary policy needs to observe the fundamental state [22][25] 3. The increased demand for Chinese intermediate goods due to other economies' rush to export to the US, and the fundamental environment is still favorable for the bond market - Although the impact of trade frictions on exports is not significant in April, with exports reaching 8.1% year - on - year, it is mainly due to the spill - over effect of other economies' rush to export to the US. The current situation is different from that in 2020 when US fiscal expansion drove up demand [26][28] - The US economic prosperity has declined, and after the short - term rush to import and inventory build - up, if consumption does not continue to rise, its commodity demand may face downward pressure. The export growth of Vietnam, China Taiwan and other economies may decline, which may reduce their driving effect on China's exports [28][34] - The recent Sino - US trade negotiation has made progress, but the tariff rate is still higher than before April, and there is a possibility of further increases. The domestic economy has shown signs of weakening since April, and the central bank's motivation to restrict the decline of long - term interest rates through liquidity tightening has weakened, which is more favorable for the bond market compared to the beginning of April [40][48] 4. The flattening of the interest rate curve reflects the change in the macro - model, and the bond market in May moves forward amidst fluctuations - Although the bond market environment is relatively favorable, the tariff agreement may cause emotional fluctuations. The current interest rate curve is relatively flat, and the market is worried about the fragility of the bond market. However, the continuous flattening of the interest rate curve since 2024 is essentially a change in the market's pricing method for the economy and policy model [50] - Historically, the change in the domestic yield curve was often dominated by short - term interest rates. After 2011, the domestic economy was mainly regulated by real estate and urban investment policies, and monetary policy was used to cooperate with these policies. In the upward real estate cycle, long - term interest rates were generally priced with a premium over short - term interest rates, and the narrowing of the spread usually occurred in the monetary tightening cycle [52][57] - Since 2021, the real estate policy has been continuously relaxed, but real estate sales have continued to decline, indicating a fundamental change in the economic model. The central bank has taken measures to lower the broad - spectrum interest rate since 2022, but the policy rate cut has been relatively lagging, which has increased the pressure on bank spreads. In the context of weak economic expectations, the domestic bond market has shown a state where the yield curve continues to flatten [58][64] - The domestic central bank has no clear guidance on future policy rates, so the domestic interest rate curve above 1 year is unlikely to invert, and the 1Y certificate of deposit rate and 10 - year treasury bond rate may be difficult to fall below the OMO rate. However, if the macro - expectation remains weak, the spreads between these interest rate combinations may continue to compress [64]