对于美国普通家庭来说，消费者信心指数已经跌至历史最低点，为了规避关税带来的涨价，消费者在关税实施前便纷纷提前购买商品，无疑透支 了未来的消费力。同时，旅游业，特别是国际旅行，也开始出现放缓迹象。 Apollo：2025年夏季可能进入经济衰退 近日，Apollo首席经济学家Torsten Sløk团队用图表展示了当下美国消费者和企业是如何应对关税的。 根据Apollo的图表，关税对美国企业的影响已然显现。新订单正在下降，资本支出计划正在下降，在关税生效之前库存正在上升，公司正在下调 盈利预期。 Apollo分析了从2025年4月到夏季的经济衰退过程。由于关税调整和运输时间延长等因素，导致供应链中断，进而影响经济活动，最终，2025年夏 季可能进入经济衰退。具体看： 4月2日： 5月初到5月中旬： 5月中旬到5月下旬： 5月底到6月初： 关税导致自2020年以来，标普500指数公司对未来12个月每股收益（EPS）预期实现最大幅度的下降： 美国宣布对等关税； 20-40天–集装箱海运时间。 美国港口集装箱到港量骤减； 1-10天--卡车/铁路从港口到城市运输时间。 美国内陆货运量骤减； 市场货架开始清空，企业需要应 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on Japanese consumer companies with optimistic profit growth prospects, including Asics, Pan Pacific International Holdings, Fast Retailing, and Asahi Group [6]. Core Insights - The Japanese consumer confidence index fell for the fourth consecutive month to 34.1 in March, the lowest since March 2023, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment amid rising inflation [2][8]. - Essential consumer goods saw a surge in stockpiling due to anticipated price hikes in April, leading to a significant increase in sales, particularly in beer, which saw a year-on-year increase of over 30% [3][14]. - Discretionary consumption faced a slowdown, with mixed performance among companies; brands like Salia, Uniqlo, and Muji managed to attract consumers despite the overall decline in demand [3][5]. Macro Overview - Inflation in Japan is rising, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 3.6% year-on-year in March, while core CPI (excluding fresh food) rose by 3.2% [2][10]. - Real wages fell by 1.5% year-on-year in February, reflecting that wage growth is not keeping pace with inflation [2][8]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 4.2% year-on-year in March, marking the highest level since 1980 [12]. Essential Consumption - Retail sales for essential goods increased primarily due to higher average transaction values, with notable growth in companies like PPIH (+5.9%), 7-Eleven (+1.0%), and Aeon (+2.9%) [4][16]. - The stockpiling trend was driven by consumers preparing for upcoming price increases, significantly boosting sales in food and daily necessities [3][14]. Discretionary Consumption - Discretionary spending showed varied performance, with restaurants like Salia and McDonald's increasing prices due to rising raw material costs, leading to year-on-year sales growth of 13.9% and 11.0%, respectively [5][26]. - Department store sales declined for the second consecutive month, with a year-on-year drop of 2.8% in March, influenced by a strong previous year's performance [33][37]. - The duty-free sales sector experienced its first negative growth in 36 months, reflecting a broader trend of reduced spending on high-priced items due to the appreciating yen and economic uncertainties [5][37]. Company Performance - Asahi and Kirin reported significant revenue increases in March, with Asahi's beer sales up 37% and Kirin's up 30%, driven by stockpiling ahead of price hikes [20][23]. - Uniqlo's same-store sales rose by 11.5% in March, benefiting from strong demand for seasonal products and effective marketing strategies [30][35]. - The performance of specialty stores like Muji and Nitori varied, with Muji seeing a 20.5% increase in same-store sales while Nitori experienced an 8.6% decline [35].

最近全球经济圈里可是炸开了锅！为啥？因为咱们那位"前任"特朗普老爷子，他当初搞的那套"对等关税政策"，现在像个定时炸弹一样，滴答滴答地数着90 天的倒计时呢！ 美联储那些大佬们，一个个愁眉苦脸的，好像欠了高利贷似的。他们说，这90天不是啥"喘息"机会，而是美国经济在苟延残喘！ "这根本不是什么好兆头， 只是在给经济续命而已！" 他们心里估计都在打鼓：这90天之后，会不会直接经济崩盘？ 你想啊，当初特朗普老爷子这"贸易战"打得有多猛？对欧盟、加拿大、日本这些国家，一顿猛如虎的操作！结果呢？美国自己先难受上了。 先说就业市场，14个州的失业人数超过了职位空缺数，这可是2021年4月以来最糟糕的记录！ 加州的情况更是惨不忍睹，100个职位空缺，对应着150个失业 的，这工作竞争激烈程度，堪比"千军万马过独木桥"啊！ 所以，美联储说这90天就像给病人打强心针，能缓口气，但病根子没治好，那风险更大！90天后，会不会直接倒下？这谁也说不准。 再看看农业，很多美国农民的日子过得跟坐过山车似的。不少农民一年收入的20%都靠出口，现在出口受阻，农产品价格直线下跌，农民们都愁得吃不下 饭，睡不着觉。我听说，明尼苏达州有个叫蒂姆· ...

Group 1: Consumer Sentiment and Travel Plans - Only 46% of Americans plan to travel this summer, a decrease from 53% last year, indicating a decline in consumer confidence [1][2] - Among those not planning to travel, 65% cite financial reasons, with 68% specifically mentioning high daily living expenses as a concern [2][3] - The percentage of respondents uncertain about their travel plans increased from 18% in 2024 to 23% this year [2] Group 2: Economic Factors Impacting Travel - Concerns over tariffs and potential economic recession are leading to a more cautious approach to summer travel among Americans [1][2] - A report from Bank of America indicates that domestic accommodations, flights, and travel activities are below previous years, reflecting a drop in consumer confidence [1][4] - Low-income households are cutting travel spending more significantly than wealthier families, who may opt for international travel instead [5] Group 3: International Travel Decline - Interest from international travelers, particularly from Canada and Western Europe, is decreasing due to U.S. trade policies and border issues [6][7] - Canadian visitors to the U.S. dropped by 12.5% in February and 18% in March, while visitors from the UK and Germany also saw a decline of approximately 30% [7] Group 4: Airline Industry Response - Airlines like United Airlines and Delta Airlines reported first-quarter earnings that met or exceeded expectations but anticipate a weaker outlook for 2025 due to declining travel demand [10] - United Airlines provided two profit forecasts for the year, one assuming a recession, predicting adjusted earnings per share between $7 and $9 [10] - There has been a reduction in flight schedules due to decreased demand, with bookings for flights originating in Europe and Canada down by 6% and 9% respectively [10]

(图片由豆包AI生成 提示词 引线燃烧中的炸弹) 当前华尔街私募行业正在面临一场完美风暴，陷入资产套牢，交易僵局持续，估值危机、流动性枯竭的困境。 而特朗普与高校的矛盾愈发激烈，常青藤巨额捐赠基金投资成为"风暴眼"，后者的投资决策通常被视为私募市场风向标。 现在，美国常青藤高校开启私募股权抛售， 一场"新次贷"危机正缓缓拉开？ 周日，据媒体援引知情人士消息，面对来自特朗普政府的压力以及对免税资格的威胁， 耶鲁大学正寻求大规模出售其私募股权投资组合，交易规模可能高达60 亿美元，相当于其414亿美元捐赠基金的15%，这是耶鲁在二级市场上首次抛售。 不仅是耶鲁，有分析称如果其免税地位仍然被取消， 哈佛大学开始出售流动性资产（如股票）也只是时间问题，也许还会发行更多债务。 15日，特朗普再发出威胁，要取消哈佛大学的免税资格，并要求该校道歉。 当地时间4月16日，美国国土安全部长克丽丝蒂·诺姆宣布取消国土安全部向哈佛大学提供的两项总额超过270万美元的拨款。 面临严峻财政挑战下，有报道称，耶鲁开始被迫出售了高达60亿美元的私募股权投资组合，截至2024年6月该基金的捐赠基金规模为414亿美元，出售的份额 约占捐赠基金 ...

信心比黄金更珍贵，提振民营企业投资信心既是当务之急，更是长远之策。"两个毫不动摇""三个没有 变"是我国基本经济制度的重要内容，支持民营经济发展是党中央的一贯方针。只要构建"政策预期稳 定、市场竞争公平、法治保障有力、创新生态完善、舆论环境友善"的立体化支撑体系，必能激活民营 企业"敢投、愿投、能投、善投"的良性循环。 稳定政策预期，持续深化政府"放管服"改革。制度环境确定性是重塑信心的基础，民营企业投资信心直 接受政策稳定性影响。国务院发展研究中心调查显示，78%的民营企业家将"政策连续性"列为投资决策 的首要考量因素。有必要建立政策稳定性评估机制，在制定产业政策时设置合理过渡期，通过"政策沙 盒"试点、企业意见征询等方式增强政企互信。推广"政策生命周期管理"模式，建立从政策制定、执行 到评估的全流程规范，探索设立民营企业政策观察员制度，切实增强政策的透明度和可预期性。政府还 应通过优化营商环境、强化产权保护等制度改革，持续降低民营企业制度成本和经营风险，释放民营企 业长期投资动能，筑牢民营经济发展根基。 制约民企投资意愿的主要因素 当前我国正处于高质量发展新阶段，民营资本作为市场活力的核心载体，其投资意愿 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The copper market is in a rebound phase, but is subject to significant systemic event shocks. Aluminum shows relatively optimistic fundamentals but faces uncertainty due to trade wars. Zinc is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be short - sold on rebounds in the medium - term. Lead prices are volatile due to tariff policies. Nickel is at the end of a rebound. Tin is in a rebound with supply - side resistance. Lithium carbonate is in a downward channel. Industrial silicon has a downward price trend. Polysilicon prices are under pressure with demand changes and cost shifts. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Sentiment**: Last week, tariff games pushed LME copper down to $8,105, causing long - position exits. US inflation indicators eased, but inflation expectations remained high, and consumer confidence was weak [2]. - **Domestic Situation**: The import TC of upstream concentrates dropped to - $30/tonne dry. Domestic copper smelter production is stable, and consumption has short - term buying interest but long - term uncertainty. SMM social inventory decreased to 250,500 tons, 148,500 tons lower than last year [2]. - **Overseas Situation**: Major investment banks lowered their copper price forecasts to $8,000 - $8,300, and the balance sheet turned to surplus. Peru, Chile, and Zambia are expected to increase copper output this year [2]. - **Price Trend**: The copper market has resistance support in supply - demand but is in a rebound. LME copper's technical resistance is expected at $9,300 - $9,500, and SHFE copper is around 76,500 - 77,000 yuan [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: Last week, the operating capacity decreased by 400,000 tons to 8.6 million tons. The price is expected to fluctuate between 2,700 - 2,950 yuan this week, and futures can be short - sold on rebounds [2]. - **Supply**: The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable at 4.39 million tons. The output in Q1 was 1.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.6% [2]. - **Demand**: The domestic downstream processing industry's operating rate decreased to 62.2%. Aluminum cable demand is strong, but other sectors are weak [2]. - **Inventory and Spot**: Aluminum ingot social inventory decreased to 724,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory to 226,000 tons. Spot premiums decreased. SHFE aluminum is expected to oscillate between 19,000 - 20,000 yuan this week [2]. Zinc - **Market and Supply**: The import zinc concentrate price guidance for Q2 is $70 - 90/tonne dry. The inventory of imported zinc concentrates is at a high of 320,400 tons. The zinc ingot import window opened, and smelters' production enthusiasm is high. The short - term support is at 21,500 yuan/ton, but the medium - term price may decline [2]. - **Consumption and Inventory**: Due to tariff policies, demand weakened after the price rebound. The social inventory increased to 105,600 tons. Consumption is under pressure as the peak season nears the end. SHFE zinc is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan in the short - term and be short - sold on rebounds in the medium - term [2]. Lead - **Market and Supply**: The lead price fluctuated due to tariff policies and a weak dollar, with the import window opening. LME lead inventory increased, and the cost side has strong support. The supply pressure is partially relieved by some smelter production cuts [2]. - **Consumption**: It is the battery consumption off - season, and the consumption side has weak support for high - price lead. SHFE lead is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,300 yuan [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market and Demand**: The nickel price declined last week, and stainless steel prices dropped 5.7%. The US tariff policy impacts demand, especially external demand [2]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Nickel inventory decreased, and stainless steel inventory increased. SHFE nickel is at the end of a rebound, and short - sellers should look for new entry opportunities [2]. Tin - **Market and Supply**: The tin price was affected by tariff policies and supply - side events. The supply is expected to be tight in Q2, but the pricing focus has shifted to demand [2]. - **Demand**: The US tariff policy on semiconductors increases demand uncertainty. The inventory is high. SHFE tin is in a rebound, with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan, and short - selling is recommended [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market and Supply**: The futures price rebounded slightly after breaking through support. The supply is high, and downstream demand is limited. The market inventory increased to 131,000 tons. The price is in a downward channel [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Supply**: The price oscillated around 9,500 yuan/ton last week. The Xinjiang production cut was less than expected, and the downstream demand for polysilicon is stable, while organic silicon demand is expected to shrink. The price has further downward space [2]. Polysilicon - **Price and Supply**: The futures price dropped 4.16% last week. The production in April is about 96,000 - 105,000 tons, and the inventory is relatively high. The cost center may shift downwards [2]. - **Demand**: The photovoltaic demand is expected to decline in the second half of the year. The demand in April slightly exceeds production, and the inventory is expected to decrease slightly. Attention should be paid to the support at 41,500 yuan/ton [2]. 4. Recommended Strategy - Short sell ZN2506. With the implementation of tariffs, the end of "rush - to - export" orders, and the over - consumption in Q1, the demand is expected to be weak. The supply increase in Q2 will lead to a downward pressure on zinc prices, and zinc is the main short - selling target [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the steel products industry is "sideways consolidation" [3] - The rating for the aluminum industry is "expected short - term range adjustment" [4] Report's Core View - The steel products market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a pessimistic market sentiment, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. It is expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner [3] - The aluminum market has a complex situation. Although the inventory decline strengthens the fundamental support, the tariff policy is uncertain, the overseas demand is suppressed, and the price is expected to have a short - term range adjustment [3][4] Summary by Relevant Contents Steel Products - **Production Impact**: In the Yunnan - Guizhou region, short - process construction steel producers' shutdown during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and most others will shut down around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [2][3] - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [3] - **Market Situation**: In a pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center moves down, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] - **Viewpoint**: The steel products market is expected to move in a sideways consolidation manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum - **Inventory**: On April 10, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 744,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from Monday and 21,000 tons from last Thursday. The overall de - stocking trend in the first half of April remained unchanged [3] - **Industry Operation**: The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 56.1%. Some recycled aluminum plants reduced their April operating levels due to order reduction and inventory pressure, and the short - term industry operating rate is expected to decline slightly [3] - **Tariff Impact**: The US tariff policy may suppress overseas demand and export - oriented die - casting enterprises' orders. China's tariff increase on US goods may raise the import cost of the aluminum industry chain but also release an incremental signal [3] - **Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to have a short - term range adjustment, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up, as well as macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3][4]

4月11日，美元指数继续下跌，美债收益率大幅上升。美国 富国银行分析师认为，这意味着投资者在撤 出美国市场。法国央行行长德加洛表示，美国政府的所作所为打击了人们对美元的信心。 ...

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