Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is at a crossroads of monetary policy shifts and fiscal sustainability, with increasing complexity due to diverging views within the Federal Reserve and rising uncertainty in economic data [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year, and announced the end of quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1 [1]. - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve, with some members advocating for larger rate cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates, reflecting a lack of consensus [2]. - Inflation remains a significant concern, with September inflation reaching its highest level since January, driven by rising prices of essential goods [2]. Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Challenges - The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $35 trillion, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 143%, a historical high, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [6]. - The ongoing government shutdown has complicated data collection, including employment statistics, which adds to the uncertainty surrounding economic indicators [2][3]. - The impact of tariffs is contributing to rising consumer prices, with estimates suggesting that consumers bear 50% to 70% of the total tariff costs [3]. Group 3: Market Volatility and Investor Behavior - The probability of a rate cut in December has decreased from 90% to approximately 70%, indicating heightened uncertainty in market expectations [6]. - Investors are adjusting their strategies in response to the volatility in the Treasury market, with suggestions to shift towards longer-duration bonds to mitigate exposure to short-term policy fluctuations [8]. - The upcoming presidential election in November is expected to increase market volatility, with historical data indicating a 10-15% higher volatility in election years compared to non-election years [7].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a supportive monetary policy stance, with recent actions indicating a focus on liquidity provision and economic stability amid a challenging economic environment [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On November 3, the PBOC conducted a 783 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, while net liquidity withdrawal amounted to 2,590 billion yuan due to 3,373 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [1]. - The PBOC's net reverse repo injection last week was 12,008 billion yuan, with a net MLF injection of 2,000 billion yuan, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [1]. - The PBOC plans to continue using various monetary policy tools to ensure adequate liquidity in the short, medium, and long term, while also emphasizing the importance of maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that the funding environment is likely to remain loose due to limited government bond net payment pressures and seasonal factors supporting fiscal spending [2]. - The recovery of government bond trading signals a focus on stabilizing growth, especially as economic performance has shown signs of slowing down in the third quarter [4]. - The PBOC's actions reflect a need for monetary easing to support the current economic fundamentals, with potential for interest rate cuts in the future, although the timing remains uncertain [3][4]. Group 3: Future Policy Considerations - The PBOC's resumption of bond purchases does not necessarily indicate an immediate need for rate cuts, as the conditions for using different monetary tools vary [4]. - There is a possibility of further policy measures, including rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio adjustments, to enhance liquidity and reduce financing costs for banks and the real economy [4]. - The overall approach suggests a combination of fiscal and monetary policies aimed at stimulating demand and ensuring economic stability in the face of external uncertainties [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 宏观利好落地，有色板块先扬后抑 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-11-03 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 有色金属价格监测 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 02 PART TWO 铜（CU） 逻辑及策略 | | | | 铜产业链逻辑及策略 标题行 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | 宏观因素 | 偏空 | （1）中美领导人于韩国会晤，双方确认吉隆坡磋商成果，当前来看，双方近期谈判取得的成效较为显著，短期中美贸易摩擦风 | | | | | 险有望进一步降温。（2）美联储如期降息25bp ...

Domestic Macro - The ICHI Composite Economic Index slightly declined from previous highs but remains near the critical zone, indicating a temporary pullback rather than a trend weakening due to high base effects post-holiday[1] - The Consumer Sentiment Index returned to the expansion zone, reflecting resilient domestic demand, with continued growth in service consumption and travel activities[1] - The Investment Sentiment Index saw a slight decline, primarily influenced by last week's significant expansion base effect[1] - The Export Sentiment Index remained stable, indicating a diversified trade structure buffering against weak external demand[1] - The Production Sentiment Index also experienced a pullback due to high base effects, with corporate orders and operational conditions returning to normal[1] Global Macro - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% and announced the end of balance sheet reduction on December 1[5] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, with a slight increase in the economic growth forecast for the fiscal year to 0.7%[5] - The European Central Bank kept the main interest rate at 2%, citing weak economic recovery in the Eurozone due to trade and geopolitical uncertainties[6] - Eurozone GDP grew by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, surpassing the market expectation of 0.1%, with France showing a growth of 0.5%[6] Market Focus - The ADP reported an average of approximately 14,000 new jobs added weekly in the private sector over the past four weeks, indicating a need for more timely employment data[7] - The U.S. government shutdown has caused an estimated economic loss of $18 billion, with potential GDP impacts of 1.5% to 2% if the shutdown extends beyond six to eight weeks[7]

今日周一(11月3日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于11410一线上方，今日开盘于11449元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报11423元/千克，上涨0.11%，最高触及11480元/千克，最低下探11245元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克周五表示，她对于改革美联储实施货币政策所采用的利率目标持开放态度。 在达拉斯联储举办的活动中，她指出货币市场结构已发生深刻变化，表明正在考虑从现行的联邦基金利 率目标转向其他利率指标。 "我认为现在应该更广泛地探索如何最优实施货币政策，"哈玛克在发言中强调。此番表态呼应了她近期 与达拉斯联储主席洛根形成的共识，即金融市场定价机制已逐渐脱离传统联邦基金利率的锚定效应。 另外她直言："我更倾向于本周保持利率不变。"在她看来，美联储刚降完25基点，当前政策利率已接近 她心目中的"中性水平"——"基本没有限制性，如果不是完全没有的话"。 哈玛克强调，要让通胀真正回到2%目标，必须维持"一定程度的限制性"。言外之意：现在降息等于给 通胀"松绑"，后患无穷。值得一提的是，哈玛克和洛根明年都将轮到FOMC投票席位，届时她们的鹰派 立 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main factors influencing the bond market performance towards the end of the year are the combination of fiscal and monetary policies [1] Summary by Categories Fiscal Policy - The necessity to create a favorable interest rate environment to support fiscal supply is significant [1] Monetary Policy - Current risks of rising bond yields are limited when considering both fiscal and monetary policies [1] - There is still room for interest rate recovery [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting revealed significant internal disagreements among its members, with one advocating for substantial interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy while another opposed this view, marking a rare occurrence since 2000 [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the current policy management as "driving in the fog," highlighting the unprecedented challenges faced by policymakers in navigating conflicting economic data [3][9] - The ongoing government shutdown has disrupted the flow of key economic data, complicating the Fed's decision-making process and forcing reliance on alternative data sources [5][13] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The internal dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reflects differing time preferences among decision-makers, with some prioritizing immediate market stability while others prefer to wait for more comprehensive information [3] - Powell emphasized that while the job market is slowing, there are no signs of rapid deterioration, indicating a cautious approach within the FOMC [5] - The current policy interest rate range has been lowered to 3.75% to 4.0%, with estimates for the neutral rate between 3% and 4%, suggesting a more accommodative stance compared to the past [9] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - The Fed's decisions directly impact borrowing costs for households, with mortgage rates showing limited immediate response but significant implications for housing market expectations [11] - Small business owners report ongoing pressure from tight financing conditions, as evidenced by their cash flow statements and loan extension records [11] - The disconnect between survey data and market indicators highlights the vulnerability of macroeconomic policy in times of information scarcity, necessitating careful risk and timing assessments by policymakers [13] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Following the Fed's meeting, volatility in futures markets, stock indices, and credit spreads became evident, illustrating the impact of information asymmetry on market reactions [15] - Powell's cautious strategy aims to gather more observable data before making further policy adjustments, reflecting the tension between market concerns and policy stability [15] - The recent dissent within the FOMC serves as a reminder that monetary policy is a limited tool requiring robust information flow and adequate time buffers for effective implementation [15]

Group 1 - Over 90,000 individuals experienced liquidations in the cryptocurrency market within the last 24 hours, indicating significant volatility [1] - In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount reached approximately $123 million, with notable figures including $66.41 million in 12-hour liquidations and $29.37 million in 4-hour liquidations [2] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has entered its 32nd day, impacting over 4.2 million Americans and causing delays in multiple economic data releases [2][3] Group 2 - Following a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, both gold and Bitcoin experienced a collective pullback, attributed to profit-taking and concerns over future uncertainties [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that further rate cuts cannot be guaranteed due to the government shutdown affecting economic report availability [3] - The U.S. Senate is scheduled for a crucial vote on November 3, which may determine whether a compromise can be reached between the two parties regarding the government shutdown [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Credit slowdown slows commercial banks' excess reserve consumption and reduces liquidity friction at month - and quarter - ends, while the central bank actively injects medium - and long - term liquidity, especially restarting treasury bond trading, are the two reasons for the continued loose narrow liquidity in November [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 11 月狭义流动性延续偏松的两个理由 - Credit slowdown is the basis for the endogenous loosening of narrow liquidity. Due to the weak real - economy financing demand and the change in the assessment method, banks' willingness to issue low - interest loans at month - and quarter - ends has decreased. On October 30, the yields of national and joint - stock bank acceptance bill rediscounts were all low, indicating "bill - for - loan" behavior and sufficient "broad credit" for banks to smoothly lend to non - bank institutions [2][10] - Economic leading indicators show that the real economy needs support, so the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy. The central bank has been net - injecting funds through operations like repurchase and MLF since June 2025, and will restart treasury bond trading. The amount and duration of this trading will affect the optimism of base - money replenishment [3][11] 2. 狭义流动性 2.1 央行操作：将重启国债买卖投放基础货币 - Short - term liquidity: From October 27 - 31, the central bank's net injection of pledged repurchase was 12008 billion yuan. As of October 31, the central bank's repurchase balance was 20680 billion yuan, remaining at a high level [12] - Medium - term liquidity: In October, the due amounts of outright repurchase and MLF were 13000 billion yuan and 7000 billion yuan respectively. The central bank's net injection of outright repurchase was 4000 billion yuan, and the net injection of MLF was 2000 billion yuan [13] 2.2 机构融入融出情况：符合月末宽松的特征 - Fund supply: On October 31, the net funds lent by large - scale banks (flow concept) were 3.2 trillion yuan, and the net lending balance was 4.2 trillion yuan, both at relatively high levels compared to the same period in previous years. The net lending balance of money market funds was 1.5 trillion yuan, at a neutral level. The net lending of joint - stock banks was - 25 billion yuan, also at a neutral level [16] - Fund demand: On October 31, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank market was about 11.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 765 billion yuan from October 24. The leverages of the whole market and non - legal person products were 107% and 113% respectively, with different percentile positions since 2020 [22] 2.3 回购市场成交情况：跨月资金成本较低 - Fund volume and price: Last week, the trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, but the cross - month repurchase rate remained stable. The median daily trading volume was about 6.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 8599 billion yuan from October 20 - 24. The median R001 was 1.44%, up about 6bp from last week. The liquidity friction was small [29] - Fund sentiment index: After a slight tightening during the tax period on the 27th and 28th, the cross - month fund situation became loose, and the fund sentiment index fell below 50 [30] 2.4 利率互换：基本持平 - After the news of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading, the 1 - year FR007 IRS and SHIBOR 3 - month IRS rates dropped. On October 31, their weighted average rates were 1.53% and 1.59% respectively, with low percentile positions since 2020 [36] 3. 政府债：未来一周政府债净缴款压力较小 3.1 下周政府债净缴款 - Last week, the net payment of government bonds was 1337 billion yuan. Next week, it is expected to be a net repayment of 382 billion yuan, with relatively small pressure [37] 3.2 当前政府债发行进度 - As of October 31, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 84.4%, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 was about 10361 billion yuan. The issuance progress of new local bonds was 89.5%, with a remaining issuance space of 5454 billion yuan. The issuance of refinancing special bonds completed the annual task [39] 4. 同业存单：净融资规模继续回落，存单利率下行 4.1 绝对收益率 - On October 31, SHIBOR quotes changed little. The yields of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) of different maturities all declined compared to October 24, benefiting from the loose funds after the news of the central bank's treasury bond trading [43] 4.2 发行和存量情况 - From October 27 - 31, the primary issuance volume of inter - bank CDs was 7349 billion yuan, a decrease of 2283 billion yuan from October 20 - 24. The proportion of different maturities changed, with 1M, 3M, and 9M increasing and 6M and 1Y decreasing [45] 4.3 相对估值 - On October 31, the spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007, and between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield were at certain percentile positions since 2020 [48]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank's OMO net injection was 1.2008 trillion yuan, and MLF net injection was 200 billion yuan this week[7] - DR001 and DR007 both reached their lowest averages of the year in October, with DR001 at 1.32% and DR007 at 1.46%[25] - The interest rate spread between DR001 and OMO hit a new low since March 2024, while the spread between DR007 and OMO reached a new low since August 2023[22] Group 2: Market Trends and Institutional Behavior - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by 1.12 trillion yuan to 6.7 trillion yuan compared to last week[16] - Non-bank rigid financing increased significantly, with wealth management and money market funds seeing substantial rises[16] - The funding gap index adjusted for seasonality rose early in the week but fell midweek, ending at -1843, which is higher than last week's -4056 but still low for the month-end[16] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The central bank's governor indicated that the current funding rates are within a framework of loose monetary policy, with DR001 having a theoretical lower limit of 1.2% and a remaining space of 10 basis points[26] - The resumption of government bond purchases suggests that monetary easing is still necessary to support the economy, indicating that the interest rate cut cycle is not over[30] - Risks include potential monetary policy actions not meeting expectations and unexpected fluctuations in the funding environment[16]