埃及央行表示，将继续密切监测经济和金融形势，引导通胀率在2026年第四季度达到7%，允许其上下 浮动2个百分点。 埃及央行在一份声明中说，这一决定反映了货币政策委员会对通胀状况和预期的最新评估。根据埃及央 行此前发布的报告，受食品价格上涨放缓影响，埃及2025年11月通胀率小幅下降至12.3%。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:王萌萌】 新华社开罗12月25日电（记者张健）埃及中央银行25日宣布将基准利率下调100个基点，调整后的隔夜 贷款利率和隔夜存款利率分别为21%和20%。这是埃及央行今年第五次降息。 ...

宏观层面，外盘圣诞休市对市场指引作用有限，不过美联储降息预期为市场带来周期性支撑。同 时，"去美元化"趋势延续，临近岁末，人民币开启强势升值行情。12 月 25 日，离岸人民币对美元率先 升破 7.02 关口，为 2024 年 10 月以来首次；在岸人民币对美元日内也升破 7.03 关口，上涨近百点，极 大提振了市场多头情绪。此外，国内央行货币政策委员会第四季度例会明确，将继续实施适度宽松的货 币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，充分发挥货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能，强化货币与财政 政策协同配合，以促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升。这些举措有助于稳固市场消费信心，推动经济协 调发展，为金属市场提供了有力支撑。 基本面，国内年底消费仍有韧性、铝锭库存仍处低位。尽管电解铝运行产能略有增加，但近期进口量下 降，供应总体变化不大。现货市场上，年底封账结算使得不少持货商选择不出货或等待后市，而下游因 恐高情绪升温，仅维持最低程度的刚需采购，消费量难以弥补出货缺口，整体出货者居多，现货贴水面 临进一步走阔压力。但市场也不乏存在追涨和节前补货的情况，使得整体现货采买维持在较为温和的水 平。 综合来看，国内市场氛围偏暖，政策 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data - Tokyo's core CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year in December, which is a significant slowdown from the previous month's 2.8% and below the market expectation of 2.5% [6][7] - This marks the first inflation slowdown since August, primarily reflecting a deceleration in food price increases and a decline in energy costs [7] - Excluding fresh food, food prices in Tokyo increased by 6.2% year-on-year, down from 6.5% in the previous month [8] Group 2: Energy Prices - Tokyo's energy prices fell by 3.4% year-on-year in December, contrasting with a 2.6% increase in the previous month [10] - Electricity prices decreased by 2.5%, city gas prices dropped by 4.7%, and gasoline prices fell by 6.4% compared to the same month last year [10] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Japan's industrial output fell by 2.6% in November, reversing a 1.5% increase in October, which was worse than the expected decline of 1.8% [11] - Despite the decline, companies expect output to rebound, forecasting a 1.3% increase in December and a significant 8.0% rise in January [11] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Currency - The Bank of Japan raised its policy interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, indicating a potential for further tightening of monetary policy [13] - Despite the interest rate hike, the yen remains weak, trading near its lowest levels against the dollar, which may increase import costs and exacerbate inflationary pressures [14] - The Japanese government is prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary, as indicated by recent statements from officials [15] Group 5: Fiscal Policy - The Japanese cabinet approved a record budget of 122.3 trillion yen (approximately $785 billion) for the next fiscal year, aiming to balance active fiscal policies with concerns over rising debt [16] - The government has assured investors that it will not engage in irresponsible debt issuance or tax cuts amid rising national debt yields and a weak yen [16]

投资咨询业务资格:证监证可【2012】31号 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/12/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.26 | -0.24 | DR007 | 1.48 | 10.14 | | | GC001 | 1.35 | -41.50 | GC007 | 1.87 | -1.00 | | S | SHBOR 3M | 1.60 | 0.00 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 1 | 1年期国债 | 1.28 | -0.70 | 5年期国债 | 1.58 | -0.20 | | 1 | 10年期国债 | 1.81 | -3.90 | 10年期美债 | 4.13 | 0.00 | | 2 | | | | | | | 回顾: 央行昨日开展了1771亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.40 ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Q3 2025 US GDP grew at an annualized rate of +4.3%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg analysts' consensus expectation of +3.3% and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of +3.5% [1][7] - The strong consumer spending and reduced inventory drag were the main contributors to this growth, with inventory changes being the largest marginal contributor to the acceleration in GDP growth [1][7] - Despite the strong GDP data, the market's initial reaction suggested overheating, leading to a temporary cooling of interest rate cut expectations, which later reversed as asset prices adjusted [1][8] - Looking ahead, the report anticipates a significant cooling in Q4 2025 GDP growth due to government shutdown impacts, with short-term interest rate cut expectations depending on upcoming employment and inflation data [1][8] Fixed Income - The report notes that during the week of December 15-19, 2025, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose slightly from 1.8425% to 1.835% [2][9] - It emphasizes that the bond market's response to economic data has been muted, reflecting a focus on policy expectations rather than fundamental economic performance [9] - The report suggests that while there is limited immediate need for significant liquidity release through reserve requirement cuts, the possibility of easing policies in early 2026 remains [11] Industry Insights - Jiufeng Energy is focusing on expanding its commercial aerospace special gas market share through the development of its launch site and partnerships with rocket companies [19][20] - The company has completed the first phase of its Hainan commercial aerospace launch site project, with core products undergoing multiple launch validations, indicating a strong operational track record [19][20] - Jiufeng Energy's profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 1.56 billion, 1.80 billion, and 2.13 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 18.0, 15.6, and 13.2 [19][20]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monetary policy adjustments to address the structural imbalance of "strong supply and weak demand" in the economy, indicating a shift towards a more coordinated and forward-looking approach in policy implementation [17] International News - The U.S. government has announced a delay in imposing additional tariffs on Chinese chips for at least 18 months, signaling an effort to stabilize U.S.-China relations [11] - Japan has revised its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2025 to 1.1%, up from 0.7%, due to lower-than-expected negative impacts from U.S. tariffs [11] - Israeli officials have indicated potential military conflict with Iran, focusing on Iran's efforts to rebuild its ballistic missile arsenal [11] Domestic News - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released 30 billion yuan in medium-term liquidity through MLF and reverse repos, with a total net injection of 49.61 billion yuan for the year [13] - Hainan Free Trade Port reported over 400 million yuan in zero-tariff imports during its first week of closure, demonstrating a positive impact on the consumer market [14] - The Shanghai government has issued measures to support the G60 Science and Technology Corridor, including financial support for aerospace industry development [14] - Guangzhou has introduced 18 measures to support the gaming and esports industry, with individual companies eligible for up to 10 million yuan in financial support [15] Company Updates - Xiaomi held a product launch event, introducing the Xiaomi 17 Ultra with a starting price of 6,999 yuan, and reported cumulative deliveries of over 500,000 units for its automotive division [16] - Samsung plans to launch its own GPU integrated into the Exynos 2800 chip by 2027, joining a select group of companies capable of designing GPUs [16] - Dyson has made significant changes to its family wealth management structure, transferring at least 624 million pounds to a Singapore holding company [16] - Yichang Technology signed a share transfer agreement to transfer 25.33% of its shares to a partner for 850 million yuan [16] - Zhongwei Co. has entered a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Xinwanda Power Technology to collaborate on solid-state battery technology [16] - Zhongding Co. is establishing a joint venture for humanoid robot manufacturing with two other companies [16]

本刊记者 王红茹｜北京报道 最新消息显示，贷款市场报价利率（LPR）依然"按兵不动"，至此已连续7个月保持稳定。很多网友都关心，后续LPR还会下调吗？为此，记者专访了中 国人民大学金融信息中心主任杨健。 《中国经济周刊》：LPR连续7个月不变，是出于何种政策考量？ 杨健：LPR不变，究其核心，在于当前宏观经济环境持续向好，市场对短期强刺激政策的依赖度明显下降。从基本面看，我国经济展现出较强的增长韧 性：一方面，2025年出口表现超乎预期；另一方面，新质生产力相关领域发展势头加快，全年经济增长目标的实现应该没有悬念。在此情况下，进一步加 大逆周期调节力度的必要性已明显减弱。 《中国经济周刊》：后续LPR还存在下调空间吗？ 杨健：今年以来，LPR仅于5月开展过一轮调整。虽然连续多月保持平稳，且整体贷款利率处于历史较低水平，但从政策导向来看，未来依然具备调整空 间。 中央经济工作会议明确提出要"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"，这意味着货币政策将更加主动服务于稳增长目标。为支持2026年一季度经济平稳 开局，货币政策预计将逐步从观察期转向发力期，央行有可能适时推出新一轮降准或降息操作。 1 2 届时，LPR也很 ...

12月25日，离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7.0大关，最高触及6.9985，同时在岸人民币对美元升破7.01元关 口，均为2024年9月底以来首次。整体来看，今年离岸人民币对美元汇率呈现"先抑后扬、震荡走升"的 趋势。2025年4月，离岸人民币对美元汇率在连续三个月升值后出现贬值，月内一度贬值至7.42下方， 随后又反转回升至7.26附近，此后呈现波动走势，整体升值态势明显。 至于对期货市场的影响，王骏认为，期货品种价格走势或将分化：进口依赖度强的大宗商品受离岸人民 币对美元汇率升值影响，企业采购成本会下降，相关期货品种的价格表现或偏强运行，如铜、铝、锡、 钴和铁矿石等；出口导向型的大宗商品或因人民币汇率升值，使海外竞争力相对减弱，相关期货品种的 价格短期内面临一定压力，如PTA、短纤、棉花、钢材、焦炭等出口占比较高的商品。 对此，王骏建议，产业企业须警惕汇率单边波动的风险，可以借助国内商业银行的外汇远期、外汇期权 等外汇衍生工具来锁定进出口汇率成本，有效对冲汇率短期波动风险和长期趋势性风险。个人交易者则 要坚守理性投资底线，不要盲目跟风，决策时须聚焦品种的基本面，同时匹配自身的风险承受能力，做 好期货仓位管理与 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond in the macro and financial sector is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Treasury bond futures are likely to oscillate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and fluctuated horizontally and narrowly throughout the day. The TL variety oscillated and declined. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.24%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.03%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.02% [1] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Open Market - On Thursday, the central bank carried out 177.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 88.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. The central bank also carried out 400 billion yuan of MLF operations, with 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day. The net investment on that day was 188.8 billion yuan [1] 3.2.2 Money Market - On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained at a low level. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.26%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48%, compared with 1.38% in the previous trading day [1] 3.2.3 Cash Bond Market - On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.43 BP to 1.34%, the 5 - year increased by 0.37 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year increased by 0.30 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.50 BP to 2.23% [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year, both lower than market expectations. In November, China's export growth rate was 5.9%, exceeding market expectations. China's CPI and core CPI both decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, with the inflation level remaining moderate. The fourth - quarter meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee pointed out that it is necessary to grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operation conditions. On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly lower, rose slightly in the morning session, continued to rise slightly in the afternoon session and then moved sideways, closing with a small positive line, up 0.60% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.94 trillion yuan, slightly larger than the 1.90 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. The stock market rose on Thursday, while most treasury bond futures moved sideways [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary easing. The Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term, with both upward pressure and downward support [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, and the intraday trend is weak. The reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while long - term easing expectations remain [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures had a small volatile correction yesterday. Due to the moderately loose monetary policy and the expected loose monetary environment next year, Treasury bond futures have strong support and have recently rebounded from the bottom. However, the current macro - economic data is resilient, so there is no strong urgency for a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term. Moreover, the supply - side pressure from the intensive issuance of Treasury bonds in the first quarter restricts the upward rebound of Treasury bond futures, causing resistance to their further upward movement [5].