用自身的确定性，去应对外部的不确定性，这是自4月初以来，美国针对全世界贸易伙伴拿起"关税大棒"之后，我 们越来越深刻的认识和行动的指南。做好自己的事情，不仅是应对一切难题的根基，更是化解各种复杂性和不确 定性的利器。 再来看5月7日早上的"一行一局一会"新闻发布会，这是继去年9.24一揽子金融政策之后，央行、金监总局、证监 会的再度联手，会议适时出台了新的一揽子金融政策。 央行宣布降准降息、降公积金贷款利率、增加3000亿元科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度，设立5000亿元服务消费 与养老再贷款等措施；金监总局将加快出台与房地产发展新模式相适配的系列融资制度，扩大保险资金长期投资 试点范围，对受关税影响较大企业"一企一策"提供精准融资服务；银监会全力支持中央汇金公司发挥类平准基金 作用，对受关税影响较大的上市公司增强监管包容度，印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》。 资本市场的反应，虽然没有9.24那样的行情，但毕竟这是中美贸易谈判新背景下的新情况，直接针对缓冲贸易冲 突对实体经济的影响，点对点地帮扶受关税影响较大的行业和企业，这些都应该算作是更大范围更大强度的一揽 子稳经济政策的一部分。 下半年的政策，其实还 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed oil, the market shows short - term supply surplus but high long - term uncertainty. The tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed supports domestic rapeseed oil prices, while factors like the seasonal increase in palm oil production and concerns about U.S. soybean oil bio - fuel demand put pressure on the oil market. In China, the decline in rapeseed imports in Q1 eases supply pressure, but high inventory restricts prices. The price is in a range - bound oscillation [8]. - For rapeseed meal, the South American harvest is being realized, pressuring international soybean prices. The decrease in the new - season U.S. soybean planting area may add weather premium expectations. In China, the supply of soybean meal will shift from tight to loose, and although the direct import pressure of rapeseed meal is decreasing, new imports from India and high short - term inventory suppress prices. The market volatility has increased recently [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Short - term trading is recommended [7]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures closed up in oscillation. The closing price of the main 09 contract was 9355 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - Outlook: The tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed supports prices, while other factors like palm oil production and U.S. soybean oil demand affect the market. In China, supply pressure eases but high inventory restricts prices [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Short - term trading is recommended [10]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures had a narrow - range oscillation. The closing price of the 09 contract was 2551 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous week [11]. - Outlook: South American harvest pressures international soybean prices, and the new - season U.S. soybean situation adds uncertainty. In China, soybean meal supply will change, and rapeseed meal supply and inventory factors affect prices [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures rose in oscillation this week, with a total open interest of 308,680 lots, an increase of 32,101 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures had a narrow - range oscillation, with a total open interest of 572,386 lots, an increase of 11,836 lots from the previous week [17]. - The top 20 net long position of rapeseed oil futures increased from +22,509 last week to +35,478 this week. The top 20 net short position of rapeseed meal futures decreased slightly from - 48,968 last week to - 43,358 this week [23]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 1,707 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 29,225 lots [29]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,510 yuan/ton, up from last week. The basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was +155 yuan/ton [35]. - The rapeseed meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,460 yuan/ton, with little change from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price was - 91 yuan/ton [41]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was +148 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was +228 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [47]. Futures - to - Spot Ratio - The ratio of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.667, and the average spot price ratio was 3.87 [50]. Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals - The 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,575 yuan/ton, and the spread widened this week. The 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,469 yuan/ton, and the spread also widened this week [60]. - The 09 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 348 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 690 yuan/ton [66]. 3.3 Industry Chain Rapeseed - Supply: As of May 2, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 300,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in April, May, and June 2025 were 240,000, 200,000, and 430,000 tons respectively [72]. - Import and Pressing: As of May 8, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was +244 yuan/ton. As of the 17th week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 112,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 27.87% [76][80]. - Import Volume: In March 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 246,756.20 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34.46% and a month - on - month decrease of 86,298.74 tons [84]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the 18th week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil was 905,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week, a 1.43% increase. In March 2025, the rapeseed oil import volume was 340,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 78.95% and a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons [90]. - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440,400 tons, and the catering revenue was 423.5 billion yuan. As of the 18th week of 2025, the contract volume of domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil was 141,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from last week, a 4.76% decrease [94][98]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the 18th week of 2025, the inventory of domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal was 22,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week, a 115% increase. In March 2025, the rapeseed meal import volume was 251,923.30 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.81% and a month - on - month decrease of 36,011.12 tons [102][106]. - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,777,200 tons [110]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of May 9, this week, rapeseed meal had a narrow - range oscillation. The implied volatility of the corresponding option was 24.18%, a decrease of 3.72% from the previous week, at a level comparable to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low Treasury bond yields and the possibility of tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [6]. - Despite concerns about corporate profit growth and global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective fundamentals, including going long, shorting, or remaining on the sidelines [14][17][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 158.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 158.6 billion yuan. It is expected that the volatility will increase, and caution is advised [5][7]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The new energy vehicle market in April had certain growth. Although there are concerns about the economy due to tariffs, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures declined. The EU plans to take counter - measures against US tariffs. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [11][13]. Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, and Ferroalloys) - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. The real estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [14]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, prices corrected. The increase in demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high, and investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels [16][17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, prices dropped significantly. Coking coal supply is loose, and the possibility of further price increases for coke is low. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [19]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron prices rose. The supply is still high, and the demand is weak. Investors can consider options opportunities for manganese silicon and silicon iron [21][22]. Energy (including Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil trended lower. OPEC+ plans to increase production in May - June, but tariff agreements may be beneficial. It is advisable to consider going long on the main crude oil contract [23][25]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil trended up. The relaxation of US sanctions on Russia may be negative, while tariff negotiations and inventory reduction may be positive. It is advisable to consider going long on the main fuel oil contract [26][27]. Rubber (including Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber) - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, prices rose slightly. Supply pressure persists, and demand improvement is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [28][30]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Global supply is expected to increase, and demand improvement is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [31][32]. Chemical Products (including PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip, Soda Ash, Glass, Caustic Soda, Pulp) - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply pressure eases marginally, and demand recovers weakly. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [33][35]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, prices fell slightly. Demand growth may not offset supply elasticity. Attention should be paid to export policy changes [36][37]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. PX device maintenance affects supply, and crude oil price trends are important. It is advisable to operate in the low - value range [38][39]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Supply and demand improve, and cost expectations are positive. It is advisable to operate in the low - value range [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Supply growth is not obvious, and inventory may decline slightly. It is advisable to participate cautiously at low levels [41][42]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Demand improves slightly, and it is expected to fluctuate with the cost [43]. - **Bottle - Chip**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Cost support strengthens, and it is expected to fluctuate with the cost [44]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply remains high, and device maintenance may cause short - term adjustments [45]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. There is no obvious driving force in supply and demand, and market sentiment may be repaired [46][47]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Demand is limited, and device maintenance may have an impact [49][50]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Supply increases, and market sentiment is weak [52][53]. Non - Ferrous Metals (including Lithium Carbonate, Copper, Tin, Nickel, Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon) - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply is high, demand is weak, and it is expected to trend weakly [54][55]. - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, prices fluctuated. The Fed's stance affects the dollar, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate in a range. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [56][57]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Mine supply may increase, and demand is affected by trade events. It is expected to fluctuate bearishly [58][59]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Cost support exists, but demand may weaken. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [60]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: On the previous trading day, prices continued to decline. Demand is weak, supply reduction is limited, and prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [61][62]. Agricultural Products (including Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apple, Live Pigs, Eggs, Corn, Logs) - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose slightly, and soybean oil fell slightly. Supply is expected to be loose, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines for soybean meal and consider call options for soybean oil [63][64]. - **Palm Oil**: On the previous trading day, prices rose. Inventory may increase, and it is advisable to consider expanding the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [65][67]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed inventory decreased, and China's import situation changed. It is advisable to consider buying rapeseed meal on dips [68][70]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton fluctuated. Tariff policies and weather are important factors. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [71][73]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar fell slightly. Brazilian production is increasing, and Indian production is lower than expected. It is expected to fluctuate in a range [75][78]. - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, prices fell significantly. Cold - storage inventory is low, and future production is uncertain. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [80][81]. - **Live Pigs**: On the previous trading day, prices were stable with a slight increase. Supply may increase, and demand may change seasonally. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [82][83]. - **Eggs**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply is expected to increase, and it is advisable to gradually take profits on reverse spreads [84][86]. - **Corn**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply pressure exists in the short term, and consumption is recovering. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines [87][89]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, prices fell. Supply is entering the off - season, and demand improvement is limited. The market is weak [90][92].

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 5 月 9 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the domestic policies are implemented, market confidence in stabilizing the economy and the stock market is further strengthened, the index is relatively strong at the bottom, and long positions can be held. One can also try to sell put options to collect premiums. It is necessary to pay attention to the Sino-US trade negotiations this weekend [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 3.1.1行情回顾 - On May 8th, the Wind All A index rose with reduced volume, opening lower and then oscillating upwards, closing up 0.68%, with over 70% of stocks rising. Among index spot, CSI 300 and SSE 50 opened lower, then oscillated upwards and later declined, closing up 0.56% and 0.33% respectively; CSI 500 and CSI 1000 opened lower and oscillated upwards, closing up 0.41% and 0.76% respectively, with small and medium - cap stocks being stronger. In index futures, futures performed better than spot, with IF, IH, IC, and IM closing up 0.82%, 0.70%, 0.71%, and 1.07% respectively [6]. - In terms of sectors, the communication, national defense and military industry, and power equipment sectors led the gains, rising 2.60%, 2.57%, and 1.62% respectively; the beauty care, non - ferrous metals, and steel sectors led the losses, with declines of 0.96%, 0.43%, and 0.38% respectively [6]. 3.1.2后市展望 - Overseas, the Fed announced to keep interest rates unchanged and stated in the policy statement that tariffs are causing risks of rising unemployment and inflation. Domestically, on May 7th, relevant parties decided to agree to contact the US. Subsequently, the central bank launched a series of measures, including interest rate adjustments and liquidity support tools for specific directions, and continued to support the capital market with funds [8]. - With the implementation of policies, market confidence was significantly boosted, and the A - share market opened higher with a gap. Overall, as the Sino - US tariff stance tends to ease, risk - aversion sentiment cools down. After the annual report disclosure period, investors' risk appetite has increased. After the domestic policies are implemented, market confidence in stabilizing the economy and the stock market is further strengthened [9]. 3.2数据概览 - There are various data charts in this section, including the performance of domestic main indexes, market style performance, industry sector performance, trading volume of Wind All A, trading volume of index spot and futures, open interest of futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, statistics of main ETF fund shares and turnover, etc., but no specific data summaries are provided in the text [11][13][21][23]. 3.3行业要闻 - On May 8th, the deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that the National Development and Reform Commission will focus on breaking barriers, expanding space, and optimizing services to promote the implementation of relevant policies. It will launch high - quality projects with a total investment scale of about 3 trillion yuan in key areas [27]. - On May 8th, the spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in the US responded to questions about Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks, emphasizing that the talks are at the request of the US, China firmly opposes the US abuse of tariffs, and if the US wants to solve problems through dialogue, it should stop threatening and pressuring [27]. - The new issue of Cailian Press "C50 Wind Direction Index" shows that the market expects the social financing growth rate to rebound significantly in April, with new loans likely to increase less year - on - year. The market also expects the CPI growth rate to decline and the PPI decline to continue to widen in April [28].

5月7日上午，中国外交部发布消息称，中方将访问瑞士，期间与美国举行会谈。 这是自美国实施对等关税以来，中美第一次表达出明确的接触信号。让人疑惑的是，中国为什么突然改了 口风要与美国接触呢？ 对此，中方的回答是受到了瑞士的邀请，而美国财长贝森特届时也会前往瑞士，双方开始第一次接触。 也就是说，中美之间的破冰是由瑞士这个国家作为第三方传话的。至于到底是中国主动还是美国主动，美 国财长贝森特的发言已经暴露了。 在被问及该问题的时候，一个国家的财政部长居然罕见地结巴了，他不断回避，称没有谁先打的电话。 美国财长贝森特 贝森特声称，他们只想公平贸易，他本来只是想要和瑞士谈判，但这不是巧了吗，中方恰好在那边，所以 双方见面会谈水到渠成。 不过很快，美国自己人都看不下去了，他跟瑞士谈什么，瑞士又没有关税，你去瑞士就是为了见中国。 总之，从现状来看，美国显然比中国谈判的心更加迫切，毕竟特朗普政府目前已经因为关税问题而陷入四 面楚歌的窘境之中了。 美国民众看着飙升的物价，空荡荡的货架，巨额的生活成本让他们自发举着牌子上街游行示威，喊话特朗 普"住手"。 而美国企业也纷纷抗议，有企业直接起诉特朗普政府的，还有一些零售巨头宣布自己 ...

橡胶期货价格有所回落，供需预期不佳，中美贸易谈判在即，橡胶市场能否迎来反弹？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

2025 年 5 月初，中国密集出台货币宽松政策并启动中美贸易谈判，成为全球经济焦点。野村证券、摩 根士丹利、摩根大通及高盛四大投行通过深度报告，从政策效果、贸易前景、经济预期等维度展开分 析，为市场提供了立体化的观察视角。 一、货币宽松政策：多工具协同发力，应对内外挑战 2025 年 5 月 7 日，中国人民银行联合国家金融监督管理总局、中国证监会召开政策吹风会，推出新一 轮货币宽松组合拳，多家投行对政策细节及影响展开解读。 野村证券指出，此次政策包括50 个基点全面降准（释放 1 万亿元流动性）、10 个基点政策利率下调（7 天逆回购利率降至 1.4%）、25 个基点结构性工具利率下调（含再贷款、PSL 及公积金房贷利率），以 及1.1 万亿元新增再贷款额度（聚焦服务消费、养老、科技及中小企业）。尽管政策力度略低于野村此 前预期的 "15 个基点政策利率下调"，但多形式利率下调仍有助于降低融资成本，该行维持 "四季度再 降 50 个基点 RRR 及 15 个基点政策利率" 的预测。 摩根士丹利强调，此次政策 "略超市场预期"，体现了中国在中美谈判前 "提振内需信心" 的意图。除总 量宽松外，结构性工具成为 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian palm oil may face renewed pressure in the short - term due to concerns about growing May production and slower export growth, with a long - term cautious and bearish view. Domestic palm oil futures are weak, and there is a risk of hitting new lows. CBOT soybeans are affected by potential changes in US biodiesel policies, while domestic soybeans have some support from post - holiday restocking and high order backlogs, but the basis may decline as supply increases [1]. Meal - US soybeans are falling with US soybean oil. The spring sowing progress is fast, and the Brazilian supply pressure is still being realized. In May, domestic arrivals are recovering, oil mill operations are increasing, but demand is weak, so the basis is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the support around 2900 [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - During the May Day holiday, the live pig spot price was stable. In May, the secondary - fattened pigs are expected to be sold, which will suppress the spot price. The 09 contract has factored in the weak post - holiday expectation. The market has limited upside drivers but no basis for a sharp decline, and the post - holiday slaughter behavior of farmers should be monitored [6]. Corn - The corn supply is tight, and the spot price is strong. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and high port inventories limit the upside. In the long - term, supply tightening and increased demand will support the price. In the short - term, it will fluctuate at a high level and may be pressured by new wheat listings and policy releases. Attention should be paid to the 2240 pressure level [9]. Cotton - In the short - term, the cotton market is dominated by macro factors and may be volatile. Downstream demand is slightly weakening, and inventory is slightly accumulating. Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate, and macro trends should be closely watched [12]. Sugar - Supply concerns have eased as the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season has started well. In India, the 24/25 sugar - crushing season is nearing its end. In China, rainfall in Guangxi has alleviated the drought to some extent. The overall domestic supply - demand is loosening, and sugar prices are expected to fluctuate after the holiday [15]. Eggs - Post - holiday replenishment in the downstream market has slightly accelerated the egg sales, but due to supply pressure, the egg price is stable with minor fluctuations. In May, demand may support the price at a high level, while in June, the oversupply may drag down the price. Short - selling is recommended for the 06 and 07 contracts [17]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8240 yuan, down 0.72% from April 30. The futures price of Y2509 is 7900 yuan, down 1.03%. The basis has increased by 6.92%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 33.71% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The current price in Guangdong is 8620 yuan, down 1.49% from April 30. The futures price of P2509 is 8430 yuan, down 2.16%. The basis has increased by 41.79%. The import profit in Guangzhou Port in September has decreased by 487.05% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 9340 yuan, down 0.53% from April 30. The futures price of Ol509 is 9240 yuan, down 0.71%. The basis has increased by 19.05% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 09 - 01 spread has decreased by 12.90%, the palm oil 09 - 01 spread is unchanged, and the rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread has increased by 4.20%. The soybean - palm oil spread has increased by 32.28%, and the rapeseed - soybean oil spread has decreased by 0.61% [1]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 3200 yuan, down 5.88%. The futures price of M2509 is 2915 yuan, down 0.17%. The basis has decreased by 40.63%. The import profit from Brazil in June has increased by 4.3%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 21.5% [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2500 yuan, up 0.81%. The futures price of RM2509 is 2548 yuan, up 0.47%. The basis has increased by 14.29%. The import profit from Canada in July has decreased by 675.00%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 12.14% [3]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3980 yuan, up 0.76%. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4209 yuan, up 0.50%. The basis has increased by 3.78%. The current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3640 yuan, up 0.55%. The futures price of the main soybean - two contract is 3536 yuan, down 0.67%. The basis has increased by 73.33%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 28.55% [3]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal 09 - 01 spread has decreased by 4.26%, the rapeseed meal 09 - 01 spread is unchanged. The oil - meal ratio in the spot market has increased by 5.48%, and in the main contract, it has decreased by 0.75%. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market has decreased by 23.91%, and in the 2509 contract, it has decreased by 4.43% [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The main contract has increased by 25.93% to 1020 yuan/ton. The prices of the 2507 and 2509 contracts have increased by 0.41% and 0.36% respectively. The 7 - 9 spread has decreased by 1.08%. The main contract's open interest has increased by 1.48%, and the number of warehouse receipts is unchanged [6]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in different regions have different changes. For example, the price in Henan has increased by 260 yuan/ton, while in Liaoning, it has decreased by 250 yuan/ton. The daily slaughter volume has decreased by 0.87%, the weekly white - strip price has decreased by 100.00%, the weekly piglet price has increased by 0.22%, the weekly sow price is unchanged, the weekly slaughter weight has increased by 0.22%, the weekly self - breeding profit has decreased by 15.09%, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit has decreased by 9.49%, and the monthly sow inventory has decreased by 0.66% [6]. Corn - **Corn**: The price of the 2507 contract is 2365 yuan, down 0.50%. The Jinzhou Port flat - storage price has increased by 1.32%. The basis has increased by 43.30%. The 7 - 9 spread has increased by 6.67%. The Shekou bulk grain price has increased by 1.29%. The north - south trade profit is unchanged. The CIF price has decreased by 1.27%, and the import profit has increased by 46.19%. The number of early - morning vehicles in Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased by 67.79%. The open interest has decreased by 4.45%, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 3.53% [9]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of the 2507 contract is 2741 yuan, down 0.25%. The Changchun spot price and the Weifang delivery price are unchanged. The basis has increased by 5.47%. The 7 - 9 spread has increased by 7.35%. The starch - corn spread has increased by 1.35%. The Shandong starch profit has decreased by 3.01%. The open interest has increased by 0.83%, and the number of warehouse receipts is unchanged [9]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract is 12745 yuan, down 0.04%. The price of the 2601 contract is 12940 yuan, down 0.15%. The ICE US cotton main contract has decreased by 1.04%. The 5 - 9 spread has increased by 7.14%. The main contract's open interest has increased by 1.11%. The number of warehouse receipts has increased by 0.69%, and the valid forecast has decreased by 9.20% [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B has decreased by 0.57%, the CC Index: 3128B has decreased by 0.49%, the FC Index:M: 1% has increased by 1.84%. The spreads between 3128B and the 01 and 05 contracts have decreased by 6.30% and 6.11% respectively. The spread between CC Index:3128B and FC Index:M: 1% has decreased by 50.32% [12]. - **Industry Indicators**: The commercial inventory has decreased by 6.7%, the industrial inventory has decreased by 0.5%, the import volume has decreased by 41.7%, the bonded - area inventory has increased by 2.2%, the textile industry's inventory year - on - year has decreased by 4.4%, the yarn inventory days have increased by 3.3%, the grey - cloth inventory days have increased by 1.6%, the cotton outbound shipment volume has increased by 22.6%, the spinning enterprise's C32s immediate processing profit has increased by 6.5%, the clothing and textile retail sales are N/A, the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and textile retail sales has increased by 9.1%, the textile yarn and fabric export volume has increased by 93.8%, the year - on - year growth rate of textile yarn and fabric exports has increased by 163.1%, and the clothing and apparel export volume has increased by 68.8%, the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and apparel exports has increased by 130.7% [12]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract is 5742 yuan, down 0.07%. The price of the 2509 contract is 5890 yuan, up 0.05%. The ICE raw sugar main contract has decreased by 0.11%. The 1 - 9 spread has decreased by 4.96%. The main contract's open interest has decreased by 0.28%, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased by 0.42%. The valid forecast is unchanged [15]. - **Spot**: The Nanning price has decreased by 0.24%, the Kunming price has decreased by 0.25%. The Nanning basis has decreased by 6.04%, and the Kunming basis has decreased by 12.16%. The imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) price has decreased by 1.23%, and the out - of - quota price has decreased by 1.27%. The spread between in - quota Brazilian sugar and the Nanning price has decreased by 3.72%, and the spread between out - of - quota Brazilian sugar and the Nanning price has decreased by 56.52% [15]. - **Industry Indicators**: The national sugar production cumulative value has increased by 12.27%, the national sugar sales cumulative value has increased by 26.64%. The Guangxi sugar production cumulative value has increased by 5.83%, and the monthly sales value has increased by 6.01%. The national cumulative sugar - sales rate has increased by 12.80%, and the Guangxi cumulative sugar - sales rate has increased by 12.73%. The national industrial inventory has decreased by 1.79%, the Guangxi industrial inventory has decreased by 6.50%, the Yunnan industrial inventory has increased by 0.12%. Sugar imports have increased by 600.00% [15]. Eggs - **Price and Spread**: The price of the 09 contract is 3761 yuan/500KG, down 0.79%. The price of the 06 contract is 2884 yuan, down 1.97%. The egg - producing area price has decreased by 0.88%. The basis has increased by 11.25%. The 9 - 6 spread has decreased by 3.21%. The egg - chicken chick price has decreased by 1.18%, the culled - chicken price has increased by 0.96%, the egg - feed ratio has increased by 1.51%, and the breeding profit has increased by 29.39% [17].

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年5月7日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | 王泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 原田 | | | | | | | | | | | гнен | 4月30日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8240 | 8300 | -60 | -0.72% | | | 期价 | Y2509 | 7900 | 7982 | -82 | -1.03% | | | 墓差 | Y2509 | 340 | 318 | 22 | 6.92% | | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏5月 | 09+420 | 09+380 | 40 | - | | | 仓单 | | 5355 | 4005 | 1350 | 33.71% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 2月6日 | 4月30日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 8620 | 8750 | -130 | -1.49% | | | ...