| CTEFINE | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 2012 31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | せ 货 略 灰 | | 研究院:李泽矩 | | | 发布日期:2025/04 | | 投资咨询号: Z0000116 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 短期建议股指期货轻仓观望,静待市场方向明朗。由于五一期间海外不确 定性较大,加上当前期权波动率处于较低位置,节前可考虑介入股指期权 | | | | | 双头策略。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期震荡调整为主,但中长期上涨逻辑尚未改变。 | | | 白银 | 震荡 ----- | 关税不确定性仍高企,商品属性或想对限制银价上方空间。 | | | 铜 | TU 看空 | 铜下游需求尚可,但贸易摩擦阴霾仍笼罩市场,近期反弹后价格存在回调 | | | | | 风险。 | | | | 震荡 | 全球贸易摩擦 ...

机械设备/专用设备 浩洋股份（300833.SZ） 贸易摩擦下短期业绩承压，收购 SGM 品牌矩阵扩张 2025 年 04 月 29 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 31.83 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 94.58/28.35 | | 总市值(亿元) | 40.26 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 25.87 | | 总股本(亿股) | 1.26 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 0.81 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 87.64 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 浩洋股份 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024Q2 业绩承压，期待下半年收入 业绩双改善—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.22 风险提示：海外市场需求不及预期、产能爬坡不及预期、地缘政治风险。 财务摘要和估值指标 | 吕明（分析师） | 孟鹏飞（分析师） | 蒋奕峰（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | lvming@kysec.cn ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a positive outlook despite short-term disturbances from trade tensions [4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while short-term trade tensions may impact certain agricultural products, the long-term outlook remains manageable through diversification of import sources and enhancing self-sufficiency [6][14]. - The Chinese agricultural sector is expected to benefit from the implementation of the "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Powerhouse (2024-2035)" which emphasizes food security and agricultural competitiveness [6][14]. Summary by Sections Trade Tensions - Recent data shows that the proportion of agricultural imports from the U.S. has decreased, with 2024 imports from the U.S. accounting for approximately 6.3% of total imports, down from 8.3% in 2017 [6][14]. - The report notes that most agricultural products have low import dependency, while a few, such as soybeans and sorghum, are more reliant on imports, particularly from the U.S. [6][14]. Meat Products - China is a major producer of pork, with a projected production of 57 million tons in 2025, accounting for nearly 50% of global production [18][20]. - The report anticipates a recovery in China's pig production capacity in 2025, with prices expected to fluctuate, initially declining before rising later in the year [39][40]. - Chicken production in China is projected to reach 15.5 million tons in 2025, with low import dependency, particularly from the U.S. [41][46]. Grain Products - China ranks second globally in corn production, with a projected output of 294.92 million tons in 2024/25, while maintaining a low import dependency [75][78]. - The report indicates that corn prices have shown signs of recovery, with domestic prices reaching 2285.29 yuan per ton as of April 2025 [79][80]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the agricultural sector, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, which are expected to benefit from the sector's growth [6][14].

大家好，欢迎来到本期的《逸语道破》，我们继续围绕中美贸易摩擦来讲。 "交易的艺术"？不过是慌不择路罢了【逸语… 沈逸老师 关注 进入哔哩哔哩，观看更高清 已静音开播 点击恢复音量 00:02 / 10:29 【文/ 逸语道破】 最近中美双方关于贸易摩擦正在逐渐进入一个新的阶段：一方面，从美国的角度来看，特朗普持续不断地发出错乱、混淆，甚至是虚假的信息，让各方继续 感觉到所谓交易的艺术背后，其实就是乱七八糟、蛮横无比，而中方这边有很明确的战略目标。 整场贸易战，就是美国单方面发动的一场霸凌措施，违背了国家之间正常的相处之道，也违反了全球多边贸易的基本游戏规则，所以中方必须要强势反制。 中方也认识得非常清楚，从美方选择设置的目标到使用的政策工具，都是错误的，对美国人自己是没有好处的。所以一旦坚决抵制把它打回去，在经济规律 的作用下，美方一定会付出更高的代价，它的失败是注定的。 在明确了这样的战略目标之后，中方要解决的是方式、方法、策略和道路问题，以尽可能小的代价加以有效地反制和应对。所以中方最近两天集中在做的一 件事情就是辟谣，商务部、外交部两天连着四五次辟谣。 面对美方这次的单边贸易霸凌，今天的中国形成了举国一 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 供应压力明显，焦煤偏弱震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 多空因素交织，焦炭低位运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices in 2023, from 620 CNY per gram to a peak of 836 CNY per gram, has sparked a nationwide investment trend in gold, reminiscent of the "golden aunt" phenomenon in 2013, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [2] Historical Context of Gold Price Surges First Phase (1970-1980) - Gold prices surged from 35 USD to 850 USD, marking a 2300% increase following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [4] - This phase led to global central banks adjusting their foreign exchange reserves, increasing gold purchases and challenging the dollar's dominance [5] - Gold production entered an expansion cycle, with countries like South Africa and Russia ramping up mining activities [5] - The oil crisis and high inflation positioned gold as a key asset against currency devaluation [5] - The Federal Reserve was compelled to adopt aggressive interest rate hikes, reaching 20%, to curb inflation, which ultimately ended the gold bull market but initiated the development of modern financial derivatives like gold futures [5] Second Phase (2008-2011) - Following the 2008 financial crisis, gold experienced a second bull market with a 166% increase [7] - The demand for gold as a safe haven led to the democratization of investment, exemplified by the rise of gold ETFs and regular central bank gold purchases [7] - The consumer market saw structural changes, with high gold prices driving a shift towards lightweight jewelry and innovations in gold leasing and collateral financing [7] Third Phase (2018-Present) - The current bull market, driven by geopolitical tensions and policy conflicts, has seen gold prices rise over 100% from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Increased market volatility and speculative trading in futures markets have been observed, with COMEX gold futures premiums reaching 60 USD per ounce and physical inventory surging by 18.6 million ounces in a month [9] - Competition from alternative assets has become more pronounced, with significant growth in platinum orders and a 30% increase in sales of K-gold and silver jewelry in China [9] - Fluctuations in monetary policy have led to a shift in the correlation between gold and U.S. equities, reflecting gold's dual role as a safe haven and a risk asset [9]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-04-29 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025-04-29 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 短期保持定力，适时加码对冲 观点分享： 今年首次以经济为主题的政治局会议，定调外部环境变化后政策方向：短期以加快落实 前期既定的政策为主，但政策储备充足，未来必要时将择机加码对冲。从高频数据跟踪来看， 中美港口吞吐量数据稳中有落，海运费呈季节性回落，韩国旬度出口增速在下旬显著回落， 故外贸影响加大，但尚未到冲击最大之时。国内日度地产销售开始呈现压力。整体上预计 4 月宏观数据趋弱，但下行幅度尚温和。鉴于此，预计近期政策以政治局会议强调的结构性政 策工具落地为主。后期，等待贸易摩擦对经济的真实影响更确定，关税走向更明朗和稳定后， 国内政策或进一步加码，包括降准降息等总量政策的空间有望打开。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 贵金属 | ★★★★ | 贵金属：我们认为目前的调整仅是战术层面的，战略层面黄金的趋势上行难言轻易结束 ，这 也将导致黄金相对调整幅度有限。短期，我们尤其需要关注美国关税谈判进程，将高度影响 黄金分时表 ...

Group 1 - The recent trade tensions and "reciprocal tariffs" have led to a reassessment of global oil supply and demand expectations, with major institutions like IEA and OPEC lowering their oil demand growth forecasts [1][2] - IEA has significantly revised its oil demand growth forecast for this year and next, reducing GDP support for oil demand from 3.1% to 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively, and expects global oil demand growth to decline from 1.03 million barrels per day to 726,000 barrels per day this year [1][2] - OPEC has also adjusted its oil demand forecast for the first time since December 2024, lowering the expected growth for global daily oil demand in 2025 from 1.45 million barrels to 1.3 million barrels [3] Group 2 - The supply side is influenced by OPEC+'s production decisions, with Saudi Arabia pushing for a tripling of planned production increases, while non-OPEC countries like the US, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana are expected to achieve record production levels this year [2] - EIA has also downgraded its global oil demand growth forecast for this year to 900,000 barrels per day, a reduction of about 400,000 barrels per day from its March estimate, citing concerns over the long-term impact of tariff policies on global economic growth [2][3] - Oil prices have seen significant fluctuations, with WTI and Brent crude futures dropping to near four-year lows before rebounding, indicating market volatility due to tariff uncertainties and supply-demand dynamics [4][5]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250429 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 13 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美债利率持续回落，A 股节前避险情绪浓厚 海外方面，美国"软数据"继续恶化，4 月达拉斯联储商业活动指数大幅低于预期，创 下 2020 年 5 月来新低，关税引发的"滞涨"预期仍在发酵。美财政部上调二季度举债规模 预期至 5140 亿美元，针对债务上限问题的"X 日"将于近期公布。美国财长：首笔贸易协 议可能最早在本周或下周达成，印度或是首批之一。美元指数失守 99 关口，10Y 美债利率 下行至 4.2%、创三周新低，金价、铜价收涨，油价回落。 国内方面，发改委：我国将出台实施稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举措；将建立 实施育儿补贴制度，定向增发购车指标。常态化、敞口式做好政策预研储备。央行：将适时 降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具。A 股继续缩量下跌，两市成交额回落至 1.08 万 亿，假期前夕避险情绪浓厚，风格上北证 50、小微盘股跌幅较大， ...

美关税政策反噬农业：订单取消 价格暴跌 美农业陷"全面危机" 金十数据4月29日讯，美国媒体当地时间28日报道称，由于全球多国对美国特朗普政府实施的关税政策 予以强烈反击，尤其中国暂停进口美国农产品的一系列措施，美国农业部门已遭受巨大损失。美国农产 品运输联盟负责人更是直言，美国农产品行业的全面危机已经到来。货运数据公司统计， 截至4月14 日，中美之间船舶运输量急剧下降，周环比下降超过22%，同比下降44%。有美国农产品出口商警告 称，中国市场难以被取代，目前由于中美两国贸易下降，美国农产品的价格已经受到影响，一些产品的 价格已经下降超过了20%。 （央视） ...