Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to move sideways, and treasury bonds are expected to strengthen sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar and iron ore are recommended for temporary observation, and coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended for light - short attempts, nickel is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies, tin, gold, and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][11][14][16]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to be weak in a sideways trend; soda ash's 01 contract follows a short - selling strategy; urea and methanol are expected to move sideways; polyolefins are expected to have a wide - range sideways movement [1][19][21][23]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to rebound in a sideways trend, apples are expected to move sideways, and PTA is expected to move sideways within a range [1][35][36]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended for shorting on rallies, corn is recommended for operation within the range of [2300, 2360], soybean meal is recommended for buying on dips, and oils are recommended for shorting on rallies [1][38][40][42]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on current market conditions, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events. It suggests that different futures markets will show different trends, such as sideways movement, strengthening, or weakening, and gives corresponding trading suggestions [1][5][7]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The current stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small - cap and stable large - cap". After the negotiation benefits come to an end, the technology sector related to IM has positive catalysts, and domestic stock indices are expected to move sideways [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the continuous loosening of the capital market, rumors of continued inquiry and renewal of repurchase - style reverse repos, and the conclusion of Sino - US consultations, the market's buying power has further increased. The bond market is expected to strengthen sideways, and it is recommended to allocate on dips [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price of rebar futures fluctuated strongly on Wednesday. The fundamentals show that the apparent demand for rebar has declined, and the supply - demand is relatively balanced. In the later stage, there may be a slight accumulation of inventory. It is expected that the price will move weakly in a sideways trend, and it is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is supported by steel mill production and Sino - US negotiations. The supply and demand fundamentals have little impact, and it is more affected by macro - news. It is expected to move sideways, and it is recommended to observe [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke remains loose. The short - term market is expected to continue to move sideways. Attention should be paid to factors such as coal mine inventory reduction, coking enterprise profit repair, and steel terminal demand [8][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations have not made a breakthrough, but the US information is optimistic. The market expects the US to impose tariffs on copper, and the LME copper inventory has decreased. The domestic copper market has low inventory and weak consumption. It is expected to move sideways at a high level, and it is recommended for cautious trading within a range [11]. - **Aluminum**: Guinea's mine - end disturbances have not yet affected the current supply of bauxite, but the impact cannot be ignored. The downstream demand for aluminum is weakening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to strengthen observation [13]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment is complex. The nickel ore market is tight, but the downstream demand is weak. The refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is expected to move weakly in a sideways trend, and it is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies [14]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is gradually improving, but the US tariff policy suppresses downstream demand. It is expected to move sideways, and it is recommended for trading within a range [16]. - **Gold and Silver**: US economic data shows resilience, and the tariff policy causes market concerns. The central bank's gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support the prices of precious metals. It is expected that the prices will continue to move sideways, and it is recommended for cautious trading within a range [17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: In the long - term, PVC demand is weak due to the real - estate drag, and the supply pressure is large. The inventory is currently being reduced, and the macro - factors are dominant. It is expected to be weak in a sideways trend, and attention should be paid to the tariff negotiation progress and domestic stimulus policies [20]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. The non - aluminum off - season reduces the purchasing willingness for high - priced caustic soda. It is expected to be weak in a sideways trend, and attention should be paid to factors such as alumina production and 6 - 8 month maintenance [22]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is affected by the strong oil price and is expected to continue to rebound, but the overall valuation is high, and the supply - demand is tending to be loose. It is recommended to short on rallies [25]. - **Rubber**: The terminal demand is weak, and the short - term fundamentals lack effective drivers. It is expected to move sideways, and attention should be paid to macro - news [26]. - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the demand is limited. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected to be weak in a sideways trend. Attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer start - up and urea device maintenance [29]. - **Methanol**: The supply is loose, the main downstream demand is okay, but there are maintenance plans for olefin devices, and the traditional downstream demand support is insufficient. It is expected to be weak in a sideways trend [31]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure remains, the demand enters the traditional off - season, and the inventory has different trends. It is expected to move sideways in a weak trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and domestic policies [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is weak, the downstream market is not good, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short the 01 contract [34]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply - demand is still loose, but the recent improvement in Sino - US relations is expected to cause the cotton price to rebound in a sideways trend [35]. - **Apples**: The trading atmosphere in the apple market is average, and the market is affected by factors such as the off - season and the impact of other fruits. It is expected to move sideways [35]. - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in oil prices and the weakening of downstream polyester demand, the PTA price is under short - term pressure. It is expected to move sideways within a range [36]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The short - term pig price is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend, and it is recommended to short on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The short - term demand is weak, and the supply is sufficient. The medium - term supply is expected to increase, and the long - term supply pressure may be relieved. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [41]. - **Corn**: The short - term market supply - demand game intensifies, and the price has support. The medium - and long - term supply - demand tightens, but the price increase space is limited. It is recommended to operate within a range and pay attention to substitutes [43]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term is affected by US soybean weather, and the medium - and long - term is affected by cost and supply - demand. It is recommended to buy on dips [45]. - **Oils**: The overall fundamentals of oils are mixed. Different oils have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to trade within a range and pay attention to the oil - meal ratio short - selling strategy [50].

2025 年 06 月 12 日 锌：短期震荡，关注库存 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 22140 | 1.35% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2658.5 | 0.17% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 170227 | 11596 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 7127 | -2387 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 125779 | -9292 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 208522 | -4563 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 275 | -20 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -33.05 | 1.98 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | 广东 0# 锌升贴水 | 275 | -10 | 进口 ...

从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F0314 ...

点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 我在前文《》谈到，需要关注本周美债的售卖结果。 周二的3年期美债发行为本周三批标售中的第一批，招标结果表现平淡，对市场影响有限。 数据显示，580亿美元3年期美债发行中标收益率较发行前交易水平高约0.4个基点，而且其他标售指标也平淡无奇。一级交易商获配15.2%，略高于之前一 次；直接投标人获配比例降至18%，间接投标人获配比例升至66.8%。投标倍数2.52倍，而前六次平均为2.62倍。 本周的关注重点，依然还是周四即将发行的30年期的国债，尽管它整体的规模是本周三批里面最小的(220亿)，但期限是最长的。 本周六，6月14日特朗普79岁生日当天，将举行大规模阅兵式庆祝，包括150辆战车、50架飞机、6600多名士兵参与，这是特朗普长期以来的心愿。 我十分怀疑那天，要爆出什么大新闻啊。毕竟如果想要打脸川普，制造轰动效应，那天绝对是个好日子。而以川普目前塑造的硬汉形象，正愁找不到靶子 呢，谁敢跳就强硬按下谁。 你没见到马首富已经认怂了嘛？！ 加州的骚乱还在持续，洛杉矶的局面稍微有些失控，我在网络上已经看到零元购的视频，并且街头抗议的趋势已经逐渐扩散至纽约，芝加哥，亚 ...

Group 1 - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by only 0.1% month-on-month in May, below the expected 0.2%, while the April increase was 0.2% [1] - Year-on-year CPI rose slightly by 2.4%, in line with expectations, compared to 2.3% in April [1] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.2%, and remained at 2.8% year-on-year, which is the lowest level since March 2021 [1] Group 2 - The price increases for services continued to slow down, while the price increases for goods remained moderate, indicating that the impact of tariffs has not yet been fully passed on to consumers [1] - Prices for new and used cars, as well as clothing, have decreased, suggesting that the cost pressures from tariffs have not significantly affected consumer prices yet [1] - Following the release of the CPI data, the dollar index fell approximately 20 points, and U.S. stock futures rose, with the Nasdaq 100 futures increasing by 0.4% [1] Group 3 - Traders expect a 75% chance of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates before September, based on the series of lower-than-expected inflation data [1] - Economists anticipate that once tariffs are raised, it will become more challenging to protect consumers from cost increases, which may lead to larger price hikes by companies in the coming months [2]

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/6/11 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors shorting long-term U.S. Treasuries are facing pressure ahead of the May inflation data release due to rising prices and declining yields since mid-May [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Evidence suggests that short sellers of long-term U.S. Treasuries are experiencing challenges as prices have increased and yields have decreased [1] - The SOFR repo rate has recently fallen below the federal funds rate, indicating that some traders are forced to borrow cash at lower-than-market rates to secure the necessary securities for margin calls [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are expected to benefit from ongoing geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainty, with predictions of reaching historical highs by 2026 [3] - Analysts suggest that the significant adjustments in commodity prices create attractive opportunities for economic improvement later this year and in 2026, particularly in cyclical sectors [3] - There is a recommendation for investors to shift towards sectors that may benefit from macroeconomic improvements, such as energy and precious metals [3] Group 2 - Current technical analysis indicates that spot gold has shown slight increases but is forming a bearish flag pattern, suggesting continued selling pressure [4] - The price is being suppressed by the EMA50, and the RSI indicator shows a divergence, reinforcing the likelihood of a continued downward trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term due to a relatively neutral sentiment, tight raw - material supply, but weakening consumer resilience [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to rise, but the upward height is limited because of improved domestic commodity atmosphere, inventory depletion, and the impact of US tariff policies [3]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weakly operational due to weak downstream consumption and high inventory of recycled lead products [4]. - Zinc prices may continue to decline if there is no production - control move from the industrial side, considering the surplus of zinc ore and weak terminal consumption [6]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as the supply side faces uncertainties and downstream has a strong demand for low - price procurement [7][8]. - Nickel fundamentals have slightly improved in the short term, but are bearish in the long run, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate as there is a lack of marginal changes in supply and demand [11]. - Alumina prices are expected to be anchored by costs, and it is recommended to short lightly on rebounds [13]. - The future trend of stainless steel depends on whether downstream demand can initiate substantial restocking [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.45% to $9725/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 79030 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 2000 to 120400 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 3.4 million tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic copper spot import loss widened, and the scrap - copper substitution advantage increased [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 0.44% to $2494/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20050 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.1 to 35.6 million tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 36.0 million tons [3]. - **Market**: The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to rise, and the spot premium in East China remained flat [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed up 0.67% to 16877 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1987/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 4.22 million tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 5.09 million tons [4]. - **Market**: Downstream battery enterprises' production rate dropped to 60%, and the production rate of primary lead smelting rose to 70% [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 0.36% to 21715 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2639.5/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 0.31 million tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.17 million tons [6]. - **Market**: Zinc ore remained in surplus, and zinc smelters' profits increased [6]. Tin - **Price**: On June 10, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 263420 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [7]. - **Supply**: It is expected that domestic tin ore imports will decrease by 500 - 1000 tons in June, and the smelting enterprises' operating rate is low [7]. - **Demand**: Downstream enterprises' orders did not increase significantly, and the willingness to replenish inventory at low prices decreased as prices rose [8]. Nickel - **Price**: SHFE nickel main contract closed at 121360 yuan/ton, up 0.05%, and LME main contract closed at $15530/ton, down 0.42% [9]. - **Supply**: Nickel ore supply was tight, and some Indonesian smelters reduced production [9]. - **Market**: The price of nickel - iron rebounded, and the price of nickel sulfate was expected to strengthen [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index was 60,537 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed at 60,760 yuan, up 0.10% [11]. - **Market**: The contract positions decreased, and the main contract was expected to switch to LC2509 [11]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 0.21% to 2883 yuan/ton, and the Shandong spot price was 3275 yuan/ton, with a premium of 337 yuan/ton over the 07 contract [12][13]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts were 8.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.33 million tons [13]. - **Market**: The bauxite price in Guinea decreased, and it is recommended to short lightly on rebounds [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12460 yuan/ton, down 1.42%, and spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory was 120039 tons, a decrease of 1624, and the social inventory increased by 2.06% [15]. - **Market**: The market competition was fierce after the price - limit policy was lifted, and downstream users held a wait - and - see attitude [15].

欧盘前，金价出现连阳走势我分析中给出提示不着急猜顶，顺势看涨到3338附近等待拐点的出现。欧盘开盘走势偏于震荡直到晚间拉涨到3342 附近由涨转跌，但是跌势不强在欧盘震荡的位置再度拉涨，现在金价交投于3350附近。从盘面上来看，这波涨势由趋势线支撑3300这里起涨， 不管是地缘冲突或者中美贸易谈判的各种消息面刺激买盘令金价上行，美盘的二次上涨已经越过3338。 下一个关键压制位处于3360附近，这里是3403到3300的618位置，可以作为一个转折点对待。下方初步支撑关注3338昨日高点的位置，其次是 今晚二次起涨点3328这里，只有有效跌破这两个位置才能继续往下看。后市具体的操作思路是等待3360附近去介入空单看跌，首要目标是3340 位置，其次3328附近。 没有不成功的投资，只有不成功的操作，秦氏金升浸染金融行业十余载，有丰富的实战操盘经验和独特的交易理念，我们拥有全球稳健的交易 系统在这里，对黄金、原油、等投资领域研究多年，具有扎实的理论基础和实战经验，擅长技术面消息面结合式操作，注重资金管理和风险控 制，操作风格稳健果断，以随和负责的性格与犀利果断的操作而被广大投资朋友认可。分析文章只是对市场未来可 ...