山东钢铁：铁矿石市场将呈现"供强需弱"特征 长期看价格下移为大概率事件 智通财经5月13日电，山东钢铁在互动平台表示，2025年铁矿石市场将呈现"供强需弱"特征，尽管短期 宏观情绪或供应扰动可能引发阶段性反弹，但长期看，价格下移为大概率事件。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures rose slightly after reaching a high and then falling back, maintaining a low - level oscillation. In the short term, rubber prices will continue to be under pressure due to weak demand expectations affected by the trade war and a supply - demand imbalance, but the downside space is limited. The market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects, weather changes in major producing areas, rubber tapping in domestic and foreign major producing areas, rubber import, demand changes, and inventory changes [7][84] - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now, and aggressive investors can consider range trading [9][85] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2509 of natural rubber fluctuated between 14,600 - 15,060 yuan/ton. The futures price reached a high and then fell back, maintaining a low - level oscillation with a slight overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of May 9, 2025, the main contract RU2509 closed at 14,620 yuan/ton, up 65 points or 0.45% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of May 9, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [18] - As of May 9, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,300 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars/ton from the previous week [22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly. As of May 9, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 20 yuan/ton, narrowing by 35 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [27] Important Market Information - The US economic data was relatively strong last week, and the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged. In China, the expansion pace of enterprise production and business activities slowed down, and three departments issued a package of financial policies, but the market reaction was mediocre [7][84] - In April, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks improved year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay. The trade - in policy continued to be promoted, stimulating the continuous strengthening of the auto market [7][84] - The trade deficit in the US in March increased by 14% month - on - month, reaching a record 140.5 billion US dollars. The export of agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and beef was severely impacted [33] - The initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 13,000 to 228,000, and the continuing jobless claims in the previous week decreased by 28,000 to 1.879 million, both better than market expectations [33] - The labor productivity in the US in the first quarter decreased by 0.8% year - on - year in annualized quarterly terms, and the unit labor cost jumped by 5.7%, the largest increase in a year [33] - The three - department financial policy includes a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in the policy interest rate, a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan" [34] - In April, the CPI in China increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.1% year - on - year; the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.5% year - on - year; the PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year [35] - The second - hand housing transaction volume in key cities increased year - on - year in April. The auto market continued to strengthen, and the price war pressure was relatively reduced [36][37] Supply - side Situation - As of March 31, 2025, the production in the main producing areas of Indonesia increased slightly from the previous month; the production in the main producing areas of Vietnam decreased slightly; the production in the main producing areas of Malaysia and India decreased significantly; the production in the main producing areas of Thailand decreased significantly; the main producing areas in China started tapping gradually and the output was increasing. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in March 2025 was 489,300 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [42] - As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1%; the cumulative output was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [46][49] - As of March 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [52] Demand - side Situation - As of May 8, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 58.35%, a decrease of 14.08% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 44.77%, a decrease of 11.47% from the previous week [55] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.0058 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.86% and a month - on - month increase of 42.93%; the monthly sales volume was 2.9155 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% and a month - on - month increase of 36.97% [59][62] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - duty truck sales volume was 111,483 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3.69% and a month - on - month increase of 37.02% [67] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [70] - As of March 31, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [75] Inventory - side Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,500 tons, a decrease of 270 tons from the previous week [81] - As of May 4, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,700 tons or 0.12%. The total social inventory of dark rubber in China was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%; the total social inventory of light rubber in China was 530,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [81] - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, an increase of 4.3%; the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, an increase of 0.38% [81] Fundamental Analysis - From the supply side, the main natural rubber - producing areas around the world are gradually starting tapping. The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China in April 2025 was 685,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.98%; the cumulative import volume from January to April was 2.869 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.2%. The supply side exerts certain pressure on rubber prices [83] - From the demand side, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased significantly last week. The finished product inventory is at a historical high, and the market performance is weak. In the terminal auto market, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China in April increased by 9.4% year - on - year and decreased by 19% month - on - month; the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks from January to April was flat year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay [83] - In terms of inventory, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week; China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased slightly, and the inventory level is still high [83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is strong while the demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][11]. - The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,680 - 64,880 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,349 tons, a 26.69% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 86,988 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 13,940 tons, a 1.79% week - on - week decrease [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 70,015 yuan/ton, a 0.57% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 5,663 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 70,765 yuan/ton, a 1.44% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 7,985 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,868 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On May 8th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 65,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract was 970 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 54,852 tons, a 7.48% week - on - week increase; the downstream inventory was 42,156 tons, a 6.67% week - on - week decrease; other inventories were 34,561 tons, a 3.54% week - on - week decrease. The total inventory was 131,569 tons, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease, all higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market is downward, and the futures price of the 07 contract closed below the MA20. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions [8]. - **Expectation**: In April 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 73,810 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 75,500 physical tons, a 2.29% month - on - month increase. The import volume in April was 20,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 24,000 physical tons, a 20.00% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has decreased daily, lower than the historical average, and the degree of supply surplus has increased [8]. 3.2 Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive factors**: Manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile on a month - on - month basis, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [9]. - **Negative factors**: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [10]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Prices**: The prices of most lithium - related products, including lithium ore, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries, showed certain fluctuations. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.93% to 743 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.10% to 65,250 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply - side data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 62.6%, a 0.16% decrease; the monthly production of lithium carbonate was 73,810 tons, a 6.65% decrease [16]. - **Demand - side data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 229,200 tons, a 4.13% increase; the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 68,650 tons, a 0.36% decrease [16]. 3.4 Supply - Related Content - **Lithium Ore** - Price: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time [21]. - Production: The production of lithium ore from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, etc.) has shown different trends [21]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has been in a state of change, with periods of surplus and shortage [24]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Production: The production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) and the overall production have shown different trends [27]. - Import: The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed [27]. - Supply - demand balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated, with some months showing a surplus and others a shortage [32]. - **Lithium Hydroxide** - Production: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) and the overall production have shown different trends [38]. - Export: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed [38]. - Supply - demand balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated [40]. 3.5 Cost and Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and the recycling of different types of lithium - containing materials (phosphate - iron lithium battery black powder, ternary battery black powder, etc.) have shown different trends over time [43][46][49]. 3.6 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate (smelter inventory, downstream inventory, other inventory) and lithium hydroxide (downstream inventory, smelter inventory) has changed over time [16][51]. 3.7 Demand - Related Content - **Lithium Batteries** - Price: The price of lithium batteries has fluctuated [55]. - Production: The monthly production of lithium battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, energy storage) has changed [55]. - Loading volume: The monthly loading volume of power batteries (lithium iron phosphate, ternary batteries) has increased [16]. - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed [55]. - **Ternary Precursor** - Price: The price of ternary precursor has fluctuated [60]. - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursor has changed [60]. - Supply - demand balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of ternary precursor has fluctuated [63]. - **Ternary Materials** - Price: The price of ternary materials has fluctuated [66]. - Production: The weekly operating rate and monthly production of ternary materials have changed [66]. - Export and import: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed [68]. - **Phosphate Iron/Phosphate Iron Lithium** - Price: The price of phosphate iron and phosphate iron lithium has fluctuated [70]. - Production: The monthly production of phosphate iron and phosphate iron lithium has changed [70][73]. - Export: The monthly export volume of phosphate iron lithium has changed [73]. - **New Energy Vehicles** - Production: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) has increased [78]. - Sales: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) has increased [78]. - Export: The export volume of new energy vehicles has increased [78]. - Penetration rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased [79].

红枣属于季产年销品种，需求跟随价格变动弹性较大。2024/2025年度红枣大幅丰产，供应充足，为红 枣价格的持续下行奠定基础。 新季红枣上市初始，枣农挺价惜售，但受限于下游承接力较弱，销量及利润不佳，买卖双方互相博弈。 叠加红枣下树时间较晚，销售期缩短使得枣农挺价心态被削弱，开秤价高开低走，期货价格也随之不断 下行。 直到春节旺季，红枣消费增加，使得价格出现反弹。然而，今年的旺季较去年缩短20天，因此对价格的 提振幅度有限。春节后红枣消费逐步进入淡季，且随着天气转暖，红枣进入冷库的时间逼近，一般货价 格开始松动，期货价格继续震荡寻底。4月，中美贸易摩擦升级，但我国红枣出口极少，价格走势主要 取决于自身供需面，因此受宏观扰动影响小。当前，红枣市场供应压力持续加大，销区消费较弱，且随 着温度升高，时令鲜果供应不断增加，进一步抑制红枣需求。供强需弱下，期货价格继续探底。 从供给端来看，2024/2025年度新疆灰枣产量达70万吨，与去年相比增加37万吨。观察历年数据可知， 当灰枣产量处于60万～65万吨时已属于丰产季，而2024/2025年度高达70万吨的产量无疑进一步加剧市 场的供应压力。 此外，天气因素对新季红 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The current supply - demand situation of various commodities is complex, with different trends and influencing factors for each commodity. For example, the pig market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, sugar has a changing supply - demand balance both internationally and domestically, the oil market is affected by supply - side and demand - side factors, and PVC has issues with weak domestic demand and ongoing inventory reduction [1][2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Pig - **Day - to - day View**: Weak and stable [1] - **Medium - term View**: Wide - range oscillation [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [1] - **Core Logic**: Supply is abundant as the inventory of breeding sows has been high, and the pressure of supply is postponed. Demand has the potential to increase due to possible stockpiling by slaughterhouses. Currently, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the pig price is likely to decline in the short term [1][2] Sugar - **Day - to - day View**: Reach the bottom and then rise [3] - **Medium - term View**: Rise first and then fall [3] - **Reference Strategy**: Cumulative purchase options [3] - **Core Logic**: Internationally, Brazil's new sugar - making season is expected to increase production, while India has a significant reduction. Domestically, the production increase expectation has been basically fulfilled, and the sales progress is good. The overall supply - demand is tight, and the sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4][5] Crude Oil - **Day - to - day View**: Weak oscillation [6] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [6] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell futures contracts and buy call options for protection [6] - **Core Logic**: On the supply side, OPEC+ will increase production, and US sanctions may affect the supply of some countries. On the demand side, there is a seasonal increase in demand, but the refinery's operating rate is low. The overall oil price will be volatile, with potential for short - term increases but also a risk of decline in the second quarter [7][8][9] PVC - **Day - to - day View**: Weak operation [10] - **Medium - term View**: Lack of upward driving force [12] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PVC out - of - the - money put options at an appropriate time [12] - **Core Logic**: The cost of calcium carbide is supported, supply has increased, domestic demand is weak, and inventory has been decreasing. The future price may be affected by macro - policies [10][11]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年4月29日 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为94110吨，环比减少3.08%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为14195 吨，环比减少1.81%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为72573元/吨，日环比减少1.25%,生产所得为-4671元/吨，有所亏损；外 购锂云母成本为74053元/吨，日环比减少0.92%,生产所得为-7815元/吨，有所亏损；回收端生产成本接近矿 石端成本，排产积极性一般；盐湖端季度现金生产成本为31868元/吨，盐湖端成本显著低于矿石端，盈利空间 充足，排产动力十足。 1、基本面: 中性。 2、基差: 04月28日，电池级碳酸锂现货价为68850元/吨，07合约基差为1890元/吨，现货升水期货。 偏多。 冶炼厂库存为52400吨，环比增加0.52%,高于历史同期平均水平；下游库存为42823吨，环比增加2.61%,高于 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The supply of polyolefins remains abundant, and the fundamentals are weak. In the medium to long term, the industry is in a capacity expansion cycle, and there is an expectation of a continued decline in the price center of crude oil on the cost side. Therefore, the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds. For L2509, the focus range is [7050 - 7250], and for PP2509, it is [7050 - 7200] this week and [7050 - 7170] next week. The short position of the L - PP09 spread should be held [3][4][5]. Summary Based on Directories This Week's Review PE - **Viewpoint Review**: The supply - demand situation is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with a volatile and weak trend. The new 208 - million - ton devices of Wanhua and others were put into production in the first quarter, and the 70 - million - ton Shandong New Era and 50 - million - ton ExxonMobil devices are planned to start in April. Although there is an expectation of supply reduction due to counter - sanctions, as demand gradually weakens, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the fundamentals is increasing. The L2509 was expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7250], and the short position of the L - PP09 spread should be held [3]. - **Viewpoint Review**: The L2509 fluctuated in the range of [7086 - 7220] this week, basically in line with expectations. The weekly output increased for 5 consecutive weeks, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.5%. The peak season of agricultural films is coming to an end, and the operating rate has declined for 4 consecutive weeks. The fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and the market fluctuated weakly [3]. PP - **Viewpoint Review**: Attention should be paid to the changes in PDH devices, and the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds. Some devices are planned for maintenance and restart next week, and it is expected that the output will decrease slightly. Currently, the propane import gap has not significantly affected the PP end, and the PDH operating rate is basically the same as the same period in previous years. In terms of valuation, due to the double - weak situation of coal, the profits of oil - based and coal - based production are significantly higher than the same period last year, and there is still room to short the profits. In the short term, the operation of PDH devices is uncertain, so it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium to long term, multiple devices are planned to be put into production in the second quarter, and the medium - to - long - term pattern is weak. The PP2509 was expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7200] [5]. - **Viewpoint Review**: The PP2509 fluctuated in the range of [7056 - 7148] this week, basically in line with expectations. The supply - side output was 730,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons, and it has declined for 2 consecutive weeks. The cumulative year - on - year increase in output from January to the 17th week is 16.3%. The downstream operating rate has declined for 5 consecutive weeks, showing a situation of weak supply and demand, and the total commercial inventory has declined for 2 consecutive weeks [5]. Next Week's Outlook PE - The supply remains abundant, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of funds. The new 258 - million - ton devices of Wanhua, Exxon, etc. have been put into production since the beginning of the year, and the 70 - million - ton Shandong New Era and 50 - million - ton ExxonMobil devices are planned to start in the second quarter. The import volume decreased significantly in March, and the import margins of LL and LD are negative. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the pressure of inventory accumulation in the industry chain is increasing. The L2509 is expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7250]. Currently, the concentration of short positions in the 09 contract is relatively high. As the long holiday approaches, if a large number of short positions are closed for profit, the market may rebound periodically. The short position of the L - PP09 spread should be held [4]. PP - High maintenance cannot offset high production, and the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds. Multiple devices such as Ningbo Taishu and Ningxia Baofeng were shut down unexpectedly at the end of the week, and the maintenance losses will be postponed to next week. Although the supply pressure has been marginally relieved, according to data, the planned new maintenance volume before May is less than the device restart volume, and the 955,000 - ton new device of Exxon was put into production in late April. In the medium to long term, multiple devices are planned to be put into production in the second quarter, and the medium - to - long - term pattern is weak. The PP2509 is expected to be in the range of [7050 - 7170] [6]. PE - Related Data - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The effective production capacity is increasing throughout the year. The production capacity utilization rate fluctuates between 76% - 87%. The monthly output, import volume, and export volume also show certain fluctuations. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of output and apparent consumption are positive, and the inventory at the end of the period shows a certain degree of change [7]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The PE main contract closing price, regional prices, and various costs and profits have changed. The PE output has increased slightly, and the downstream operating rate has decreased slightly. The inventory of enterprises, society, and traders has changed to varying degrees, and the position volume has increased significantly [8]. - **Production and Inventory**: This week's PE output is 640,000 tons, increasing for 5 consecutive weeks. The cumulative year - on - year increase in output from January to the 17th week is 16.5%. Next week, it is expected that the total output will be 658,700 tons, an increase of 16,200 tons compared with this week [18]. - **Import and Export**: From January to March, the cumulative PE import volume was 3.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. Currently, the import margins of LL and LD have turned negative, and the import pressure will gradually ease. It is expected that the total import volume of polyethylene in April and May will be about 1.01 million tons and 950,000 tons respectively [28]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 40% (a week - on - week increase of 0.01 pct). The peak season of agricultural films is coming to an end, and the operating rate has declined for 4 consecutive weeks. The operating rate of the packaging industry is running at a low level [31][37][40]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profit is at a relatively high level compared with the same period [45]. - **Position Volume**: As of April 25th, the net short position of the L2509 main contract accounts for 63%. Attention should be paid to the capital dynamics of seats such as Guotai, Qiankun, and CITIC [50][51]. PP - Related Data - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The effective production capacity is increasing throughout the year. The production capacity utilization rate fluctuates between 77% - 79%. The monthly output, import volume, and export volume also show certain fluctuations. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of output and apparent consumption are positive, and the inventory at the end of the period shows a certain degree of change. The 50 - million - ton fourth line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical's production plan has been postponed to mid - June [52]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The PP main contract closing price, regional prices, and various costs and profits have changed. The output has decreased, and the production capacity utilization rate has decreased. The downstream operating rate has decreased slightly, and the total commercial inventory, enterprise inventory, and trader inventory have all decreased [53]. - **Supply**: This week's PP output is 730,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons, and it has declined for 2 consecutive weeks. The cumulative year - on - year increase in output from January to the 17th week is 16.3%. Due to the unexpected shutdown of multiple devices at the end of the week, the production capacity utilization rate of polypropylene is expected to continue to decline, and it is expected to run at around 74% next week [61]. - **Import and Export**: In March, PP turned into a net exporter again [69]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate has declined slightly for 3 consecutive weeks. The operating rate of the raffia is at a relatively high level compared with the same period. The profit of BOPP is relatively low, and the operating rate of PP non - woven fabrics is running smoothly [71][72][75][81]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profit is at a relatively high level [87]. - **Position Volume**: As of April 25th, the net short position of the PP2509 main contract accounts for 51%. Attention should be paid to the capital dynamics of seats such as Dongzheng, CITIC, and Guotai [106][107].