1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, PP will remain in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with upward pressure difficult to relieve. The high level of PP device maintenance can only alleviate part of the supply pressure, while the large inventory of supply and the upcoming new device production make it hard to fundamentally solve the supply - surplus problem. On the demand side, downstream speculative replenishment has led to high raw material inventory and weak spot trading [1]. - In the near term, the bearish trend of PP is expected to continue as it is difficult to reverse the fundamental situation. To see PP stabilize and rebound, improvements in the spot market, repair of basis, high device maintenance in the fourth quarter, high demand growth, and no increase in imports are required [5]. - In the long term, from the production forecast in the first quarter of 2026, new PP device production will be relatively limited, mainly focusing on digesting existing capacity. Coupled with an overall optimistic macro - expectation, PP is expected to show a bottom - up recovery [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply - demand aspect**: Although recent device maintenance has alleviated some supply pressure, the large inventory of supply and the upcoming 400,000 - ton new device of Guangxi Petrochemical make it difficult to fundamentally solve the supply - surplus problem. On the demand side, downstream speculative replenishment has led to high raw material inventory, weakening the demand - side support [1]. - **Macro aspect**: This week, crude oil prices peaked and fell. The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation, a 10% reduction in fentanyl tariffs, was lower than market expectations, leading to a weakening of the macro - environment and a general decline in chemical products. Macro - sentiment and cost - side fluctuations have a greater impact on the PP market [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Recent strategy review**: A unilateral long - at - low strategy was proposed on September 19 and closed after the National Day due to the decline in propane prices during the holiday [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The predicted price range of polypropylene in the next month is 6,500 - 7,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.94% and a historical percentile of 20.9% over the past three years [11]. - **Hedging strategy**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short PP2601 futures (25% hedging ratio, entry range 6,900 - 7,000 yuan/ton) and sell call options (50% hedging ratio, entry range 20 - 40) to lock in profits and reduce costs. For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy PP2601 futures (50% hedging ratio, entry range 6,500 - 6,550 yuan/ton) to lock in procurement costs [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The coal price rose due to the shutdown of Shaanxi Shiyangou Coal Mine after an accident; relevant departments mentioned rectifying involution - style competition and establishing a fair and innovative business environment; a 450,000 - ton device of Quanzhou Guoheng malfunctioned and is expected to stop until November 7; two new PP lines (900,000 tons in total) of Daxie Petrochemical are expected to stop for 3 - 4 months due to upstream technical transformation [18]. - **Negative information**: The result of the Sino - US meeting in Busan, a 10% reduction in fentanyl tariffs, was lower than market expectations, leading to a decline [14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Event Concerns - The meeting result of OPEC+ on December's crude oil production; the situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict; relevant policy recommendations after the Fourth Plenary Session [19]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and fund movement**: The market was mainly oscillating in the first half of the week and declined in the second half. This week, the trading volume decreased slightly, and the net short positions of the top five profitable seats increased significantly. Market sentiment has slightly improved, with more long - short competition [21]. - **Basis structure**: After speculative replenishment, downstream inventory is high, weakening spot demand. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 170 yuan/ton (weakened by 48 yuan compared to last week), - 70 yuan/ton in East China (weakened by 8 yuan), and - 40 yuan/ton in South China (strengthened by 32 yuan) [23]. - **Spread structure**: Due to the relatively optimistic macro - expectation and fewer PP device productions in the first half of next year, the L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure [26]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Due to the continuous weakness of PP, the profit situation of each production line is not optimistic. The recent increase in propane prices has led to a decline in PDH device profits, currently at - 300 yuan/ton. If the profits are further compressed, PDH devices may reduce production [31]. 3.5 Supply - demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - demand Balance Sheet Deduction - From the balance sheet, the future supply - demand pressure is not too large. The key is to digest the existing inventory. Maintaining supply - demand balance requires high device maintenance in the fourth quarter, a high demand growth rate (current apparent demand growth rate is 11%), and limited increase in imports [39]. 3.5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PP operating rate is 77.06% (+1.13%). This week, devices such as Yulong Petrochemical and Zhongjing Petrochemical restarted, slightly increasing the operating rate. In November, devices such as Daxie Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical will be under maintenance, but the upcoming 400,000 - ton new device of Guangxi Petrochemical and the large existing capacity make it difficult to fundamentally relieve the supply pressure [45]. 3.5.3 Import - export and Deduction - **Import**: Due to the weak overseas prices, some low - price PP supplies may flow into China, but the increase is expected to be limited. - **Export**: Weak overseas demand and the off - season for exports restrict PP exports, but some enterprises have increased export orders by reducing prices this week [48]. 3.5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The current average downstream operating rate is 52.61% (+0.24%). Affected by previous price fluctuations, downstream speculative replenishment has led to high raw material inventory and pre - empted some replenishment demand. This week, the spot market was inactive, with weak trading and a weak basis [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current supply-demand pattern of PE is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, which is difficult to change. The supply pressure remains high due to high inventory capacity and the successive commissioning of multiple devices in the fourth quarter, while the demand support will gradually weaken at the end of the year [1][8][33]. - In the short - to medium - term, PE is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, and a bearish view is recommended. In the long - term, the supply pressure of LLDPE may ease next year, but the supply pressure of non - standard products may suppress its price [8]. - The macro environment has a significant impact on the PE market. The weakening of the macro atmosphere and the decline in crude oil prices have led to a general decline in chemical products, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy changes [1]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply - demand level: Supply pressure is high as the total output remains high despite a slight increase in recent maintenance volume, and new devices are to be commissioned. Demand support is weak as the incremental space for demand is limited at the end of the year, and downstream raw material inventory is high [1]. - Macro level: Crude oil prices have peaked and declined, and the result of the Sino - US trade negotiation is lower than market expectations, leading to a weakening of the macro atmosphere. The influence of macro emotions and cost fluctuations on the PE market has increased [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Weak and volatile [10]. - Price range: L2601 is between 6800 - 7100 [10]. - Strategy suggestion: Short on rallies [10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - Price range forecast for polyethylene: 6800 - 7200 [12]. - Hedging strategies: For inventory management, short plastic futures and sell call options; for procurement management, buy plastic futures and sell put options [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Not provided in the content. - Bearish information: The Sino - US meeting result is lower than market expectations, new devices are commissioned, and the restart of some devices increases supply [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - OPEC + meeting results on December crude oil production, the situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and relevant policy suggestions after the Fourth Plenary Session [18]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The disk reached a peak on Tuesday and then declined this week [20]. - Capital movement: The open interest increased this week, with no significant changes in the top five long and short positions in the order book, a slight reduction in net short positions of the top five profitable seats, and a slight increase in net short positions of the main profitable seats [20]. - Basis structure: The spot price lacks support and follows the decline of the PE disk. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 79 yuan/ton (weakened by 20 compared with last week), in East China was 31 yuan/ton (- 10), and in South China was 251 yuan/ton (+ 70) [22]. - Spread structure: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to the relatively optimistic macro expectations and the limited commissioning of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year [24]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The production profits of all production lines have been compressed, and the coal - based production line with the best profit is also in a loss state. PE devices are not sensitive to profit conditions, so there is a lack of strong cost support during the downward trend [28]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand of PE is difficult to change. Supply pressure is high due to high inventory capacity, new device commissioning, and expected increase in imports after October. Demand support will gradually weaken as the incremental space for demand is limited at the end of the year [33]. 5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 80.86% (- 0.59%). Although the maintenance loss has increased, new device commissioning will still lead to high supply pressure [36]. 5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: Overseas supply - demand is weak, and low - price goods are flowing into China, resulting in an increase in imports in the fourth quarter [41]. - Export: Enterprises are more active in expanding export channels, but the overall export volume is small and has little impact on the supply - demand pattern [41]. 5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The average downstream operating rate of PE is 45.75% (- 0.38%). The agricultural film is in the peak season with increasing operating rate and orders, while the packaging film has insufficient new orders and a declining operating rate [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, along with their core driving logics. The current pattern of strong meal and weak oil in the beans and oils market persists [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The consensus on expanding agricultural product imports reached in the Sino - US leaders' meeting has boosted short - term sentiment. However, the market is still in a situation of "strong supply and weak demand". Only when trade policy breakthroughs resonate with seasonal demand recovery can the market break free from this situation. The futures price of soybean meal is oscillating strongly but faces pressure at the upper limit of the range [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: weak; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The main pressure on the palm oil market comes from the expected 10% year - on - year increase in Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 to about 56 - 57 million tons, and weak exports of Malaysian palm oil. The optimistic expectations from Sino - US negotiations cannot offset the industrial chain pressure. The futures price of palm oil has fallen below the lower limit of the previous oscillating range and will continue to be weak [7] Soybean Oil (2601) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar strengthened again, with a daily increase of 1.54%. The demand for rebar has a seasonal rebound, but the supply has also increased. The fundamentals have not improved under the situation of both supply and demand increasing, and the pressure of inventory reduction remains. Supported by market sentiment and cost, the rebar price is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated upwards, with a daily increase of 1.45%. The market sentiment has improved, and the price of hot - rolled coil has rebounded from a low level. However, the supply pressure remains, and there are concerns about demand. With cost support, the price is expected to continue the volatile and stable trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened, with a daily increase of 1.94%. The market sentiment has improved, and the iron ore price has rebounded from a low level. However, the supply of iron ore is at a high level, while the demand continues to weaken. The fundamentals of iron ore are not good under the situation of strong supply and weak demand. The high - valued iron ore price is still prone to pressure. The iron ore price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - Regarding the Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the two sides agreed to further determine specific details and fulfill their respective domestic approval procedures [6]. - From January to September, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 5373.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. Among them, the state - owned holding enterprises, joint - stock enterprises, foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises, and private enterprises had different profit growth rates [7]. - Tangshan Fengnan District launched a level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather from 12:00 on October 27, 2025, due to expected adverse diffusion conditions [8]. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3180 yuan, 3140 yuan, and 3232 yuan respectively, with price changes of 10 yuan, 30 yuan, and 13 yuan [9]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3330 yuan, 3220 yuan, and 3349 yuan respectively, with price changes of 40 yuan, 20 yuan, and 16 yuan [9]. - Other: The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2960 yuan, with a change of 30 yuan; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2160 yuan, with a change of 20 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 793 yuan, with a change of 13 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 813 yuan, with no change [9]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3100 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.54%. The trading volume was 1,696,201 lots, an increase of 614,508 lots, and the open interest was 1,953,001 lots, a decrease of 97,544 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3299 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.45%. The trading volume was 595,934 lots, an increase of 165,988 lots, and the open interest was 1,482,730 lots, a decrease of 18,766 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 786.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.94%. The trading volume was 363,294 lots, an increase of 52,955 lots, and the open interest was 558,846 lots, a decrease of 6,796 lots [14]. Relevant Charts - Steel inventory: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mills + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil [15][16][18]. - Iron ore inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports in China, the inventory of 247 steel mills, etc. [20][21][26]. - Steel mill production: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, independent electric furnace operating rate, and profitability of steel mills [29][31][32]. Future Outlook - Rebar: The supply and demand have both increased. The weekly output of rebar has increased by 5.91 tons, and the demand has a seasonal rebound. However, the fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory reduction pressure remains. With market sentiment and cost support, the price is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner [36]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply and demand pattern has improved slightly. The weekly output has increased by 0.62 tons, and the demand has performed well. However, there are concerns about demand. With cost support, the price is expected to continue the volatile and stable trend [36]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern has continued to weaken. The demand for iron ore is expected to continue to decrease, while the supply is at a high level. The iron ore price is expected to continue to oscillate [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,308 tons, a 1.14% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, production was 87,260 tons, and next - month production is forecasted to be 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. Lithium carbonate imports in September 2025 were 19,597 tons, and next - month imports are forecasted to be 22,000 tons, a 12.26% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 104,347 tons, a 1.49% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,592 tons, a 3.50% week - on - week increase. Next - month demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decrease [8]. - Cost side: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 76,653 yuan/ton, a 0.93% daily increase, with a production loss of 2,342 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 80,139 yuan/ton, a 1.46% daily increase, with a production loss of 7,835 yuan/ton. The recycling - end production cost is close to the ore - end cost, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore - end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Overall situation: The imbalance between supply and demand persists, with strong supply and weak demand. The downward trend is difficult to change. The 2601 lithium carbonate contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 78,660 - 80,380 yuan/ton [9][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week's production increase and future production and import forecasts show a growing supply [8][9]. - Demand: Inventory increases in downstream enterprises and expected future demand changes [8][9]. - Cost: Different raw - material production costs and profit situations [9]. - Other factors: Bullish factors include manufacturers' production cut plans and a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Bearish factors include high supply at the ore/salt - lake end and weak acceptance from the power - battery end [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Data**: - Futures closing prices of different contracts show price fluctuations, and most contracts have price changes. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 420 yuan to 79,520 yuan, a 0.53% decrease [16]. - Base - difference data shows that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate on October 24 was 75,400 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract base difference was - 4,120 yuan/ton, indicating spot discount to futures [9][16]. - Registered warehouse receipts decreased by 60 to 28,699, a 0.21% decrease [16]. - **Upstream Price Data**: - Lithium ore prices increased, with lithium spodumene (6%) rising by 11 dollars to 881 dollars/ton, a 1.26% increase, and lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) rising by 50 yuan to 1,940 yuan/ton, a 2.65% increase [16]. - Other raw - material prices also had different degrees of changes, such as a 4.01% increase in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate [16]. - **Supply - side Data**: - Production and cost data of different raw - material lithium carbonate, such as daily lithium spodumene production cost increasing by 708 yuan to 76,653 yuan/ton, a 0.93% increase [19]. - Import and export data of lithium carbonate and lithium ore, such as a 10.61% increase in monthly lithium - concentrate imports [19][20]. - **Demand - side Data**: - Inventory data of downstream enterprises, such as a 1.49% increase in the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate to 104,347 tons [19]. - Battery - loading volume data, such as a 21.60% increase in the monthly total power - battery loading volume to 76,000 GWh [20]. 3.3 Supply - Related Content - **Lithium Ore Supply**: - Price trends of lithium ore over the years and production trends of domestic lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines [26][27]. - Import volume and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore, such as the import volume and proportion of Australian lithium ore [27]. - Supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore, showing the relationship between production, import, export, and demand in different months [30]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: - Weekly and monthly production, production capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, recycling) [31][32]. - Supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate, with different monthly supply - demand balance situations [38]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: - Capacity utilization, production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) [40][41]. - Supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide, showing the relationship between production, import, export, and demand in different months [43]. 3.4 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Different raw - material production costs and profit situations of lithium carbonate, such as the cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica [46]. - Recycling production cost and profit of lithium carbonate from different waste materials, such as waste lithium - iron - phosphate batteries and ternary materials [48]. - Cost - profit situations in the production and processing of lithium hydroxide, such as the profit and cost of smelting and causticizing methods [51]. 3.5 Inventory - Weekly and monthly inventory data of lithium carbonate, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory [19][53]. - Monthly inventory data of lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory and downstream inventory [53]. 3.6 Demand - Related Content - **Lithium Battery Demand**: - Battery price trends, production volume, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries [55][56]. - Cost data of different types of lithium - battery cells [56]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: - Price trends, cost - profit situations, production volume, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors [61][62][65]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: - Price trends, cost - profit situations, production volume, and import - export volume of ternary materials [67][68][70]. - **Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium Demand**: - Price trends, cost - profit situations, production volume, and export volume of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium [73][76]. - **New - Energy Vehicle Demand**: - Production volume, sales volume, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new - energy vehicles [80][81]. - Retail - wholesale ratio and inventory data of new - energy vehicles [85].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The PVC market is currently in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. With continuous release of new production capacity, weak real - estate demand, high inventory, and weak cost support, the PVC futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Cost Support Weakening - The price of calcium carbide, the main raw material for calcium carbide - based PVC, is continuously low, and the international crude oil market is weak, which weakens the cost support for ethylene - based PVC [2]. - Although some enterprises are in a loss state, the "alkali - for - chlorine" model of chlor - alkali integrated enterprises maintains production, and the cost's regulatory effect on supply is limited [3]. High Supply Pressure - In 2025, domestic PVC new production capacity features large - scale, technology switching, and concentrated production. The annual planned/expected new capacity is 2.5 - 3.5 million tons, and the actual new capacity is about 2.5 million tons, pushing the total domestic PVC capacity close to or exceeding 30 million tons [3]. - As of now, 1.45 million tons of new PVC capacity have been added this year, and another 0.5 million tons are to be fully released in the fourth quarter [3]. - After the holiday, the overall operating rate of PVC enterprises remains high, and the supply pressure has not been significantly relieved [4]. - The new PVC capacity is mainly ethylene - based, which has a cost - squeezing effect on calcium carbide - based PVC and intensifies industry competition [4]. Persistent Weak Demand - PVC is a typical post - real - estate cycle product, and the real - estate market has been weak since 2025. In the first three quarters of 2025, real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9%, new commercial housing sales area decreased by 5.5%, and sales volume decreased by 7.9%, which directly suppresses the procurement demand in the hard - product fields such as pipes and profiles [4]. - Although the operating rate of some downstream enterprises has slightly increased after the weather turns cool, orders are generally insufficient, and enterprises mainly replenish inventory based on low - price rigid demand [5]. - The traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" did not arrive as expected, and the demand improvement expectation after the holiday was disappointed [5]. High Inventory Pressure - As of the week of October 17, PVC social inventory reached 1.0338 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.52%. The PVC futures warehouse receipt volume also reached a historical peak, indicating strong hedging willingness in the industry and difficult spot sales [6].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic PVC futures market continues to show a weak downward trend post-National Day holiday, with the 2601 contract breaking through key support levels of 4800 yuan/ton and 4700 yuan/ton, reaching a low of 4644 yuan/ton [1] Cost Support Weakening - PVC prices lack effective support from the cost side, as the price of calcium carbide, a key raw material for calcium carbide method PVC, remains low due to the impact of staggered production in Inner Mongolia [2] - International crude oil prices have also been weak, with WTI crude oil futures dropping to a low of $56.63 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures falling to $60.11 per barrel, both hitting new lows since the second quarter of this year [2] - The expectation of oversupply in the global oil market continues to weigh on the outlook for oil prices, which in turn weakens the cost support for ethylene-based PVC [2] - Despite some companies facing losses, integrated chlor-alkali enterprises maintain production through a "sodium carbonate compensating for chlorine" model, resulting in stable PVC operating rates above 76% [2] Significant Supply Pressure - In 2025, new domestic PVC production capacity is characterized by large scale, technology switching, and concentrated commissioning, with an expected annual increase of 2.5 to 3.5 million tons [3] - As of now, 1.45 million tons of new PVC capacity has been added this year, with major plants like Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua already in stable operation [3] - The overall operating rate of PVC enterprises remains high despite some planned maintenance, indicating persistent supply pressure [3] - New capacity primarily utilizes the ethylene method, which is more sensitive to crude oil and ethylene price trends, intensifying competition within the industry [3] Weak Demand Situation - PVC demand is closely tied to the real estate market, which has been weak since 2025, with real estate development investment down by 13.9% and new housing sales area declining by 5.5% year-on-year [4] - The weak construction and sales data directly suppresses the procurement demand for hard products like pipes and profiles [4] - Despite a slight recovery in downstream operating rates, overall orders remain insufficient, leading to pressure on profitability and a focus on low-price essential stock replenishment [6] - High inventory levels continue to accumulate, with PVC social inventory reaching 1.0338 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 33.52% [6] - The current PVC market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with multiple negative factors contributing to a lack of upward momentum [6]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products shows mixed results, with egg futures experiencing a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 3009.00 yuan per 500 kg, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.52% [1] - Current egg prices are under pressure due to significant supply-side challenges, with no clear signs of excess capacity being eliminated, leading to a continued weak price outlook [1][2] - The national inventory of laying hens remains at a high level compared to the past five years, and the market is characterized by a stalemate between slaughterhouses and farmers, resulting in limited changes in the market dynamics [1][2] Group 2 - Short-term forecasts indicate that egg prices have hit new lows, with accumulated inventories and weak downstream demand, leading to a wide fluctuation in the main contract within the range of 2800 to 3000 yuan [1] - The medium-term outlook suggests that while inventories are decreasing, the supply-demand imbalance persists, with high ages of chickens affecting supply pressure, indicating limited upward momentum for current prices [2] - Long-term projections highlight that the continuous increase in egg-laying capacity may extend the price bottom cycle, necessitating patience for the market to adjust through the elimination of excess capacity [2]

Core Insights - The iron ore market is currently facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with short-term trends dependent on policy stimuli and production cuts from steel mills [1] Supply Side - Australia shipped 14.149 million tons of iron ore to China this week, a decrease of 454,000 tons week-on-week - Brazil's shipments to China were 7.269 million tons, down by 220,000 tons week-on-week - Overall shipment volumes have slightly declined [1] Demand Side - The capacity utilization rate of 163 steel mills is at 90.33%, a decrease of 0.24% week-on-week - Daily pig iron production is 2.4095 million tons, down by 5,900 tons week-on-week - Demand remains relatively stable [1] Inventory Levels - Imported iron ore port inventory stands at 135.6 million tons, an increase of 2.5077 million tons week-on-week - The average daily throughput at 45 ports is 3.27 million tons, a decrease of 112,800 tons week-on-week - Total inventory at steel mills is 89.827 million tons, down by 634,600 tons week-on-week, indicating a slight overall increase in inventory [1] Market Dynamics - Iron ore futures have been on a downward trend, primarily due to the shift in fundamentals towards strong supply and weak demand - Global major mining shipments are at seasonal highs, leading to ample port arrivals and inventory accumulation, which exerts price pressure [1] Steel Industry Challenges - The downstream steel industry is facing difficulties, with steel mill profits being squeezed and operating near breakeven - Some steel mills are planning maintenance and production cuts, leading to a decline in daily consumption and cautious procurement, which weakens demand support [1] Macro Environment - The overall market sentiment is bearish, influenced by changes in China-U.S. trade relations, raising concerns about global growth and commodity demand, which casts a shadow over iron ore prices [1] Short-term Outlook - The iron ore market is under pressure from three main factors: ample supply, weakening demand, and insufficient macro confidence - Short-term trends will depend on stimulus policies and production cuts from steel mills - Iron ore main contract 01 has recently seen a slight decline, with a short-term reference range of 750 to 800, indicating high volatility and the need for risk management [1]

Core Viewpoint - The LPG market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to its strong correlation with crude oil prices, seasonal variations, and recent tariff issues affecting price dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - LPG is a terminal product and chemical raw material used in producing polypropylene and gasoline blending products, with its price closely tied to crude oil [1] - The price ratio between LPG and crude oil has seen substantial volatility, reaching a near five-year high in April [1] - The U.S. is the largest source of LPG imports for China, accounting for approximately 50% of total imports, followed by countries in the Middle East [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand - China's LPG imports are diversifying, with a notable decrease in propane imports from the U.S. to the lowest level since 2021 [1] - Domestic LPG demand is primarily driven by chemical needs, particularly from propane dehydrogenation (PDH) processes, with potential benefits for alternative production methods if PDH feedstock is restricted [1] - Current supply pressures are indicated by the October CP (Saudi LPG contract price) opening lower than expected, suggesting a significant supply burden [3] Group 3: Cost Factors - The current weak trend in crude oil prices contrasts sharply with the performance of precious and base metals, influenced by factors such as the rise of new energy vehicles and ongoing trade tensions [2] - LNG prices are currently lower than LPG prices, with an expanding price gap accelerating LNG's market penetration [2] - Shipping costs for LPG are relatively low, with favorable conditions in key transit areas like the Panama Canal [2] Group 4: Inventory and Utilization - Port inventory levels are at mid-range historical levels, while refinery inventory rates are near multi-year lows, indicating a mixed supply situation [3] - The overall chemical industry is facing profitability challenges, with declining margins in PDH and related products, contributing to a bearish outlook for LPG prices [3]