证券日报网讯12月19日，凯盛新能（600876）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司2025年前三季度 营业总收入26.77亿元，期末净资产38.82亿元。其中第三季度营业总收入10.03亿元，同比上升40.15%； 归母净利润为-1.47亿元，同比上升23.50%；扣非净利润为-1.93亿元，同比上升6.41%。目前公司营业收 入、净资产等相关财务指标均不触及《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》规定的财务类强制退市情形。公 司经营亏损的主要原因在于光伏行业延续"供强需弱"格局，产能利用率持续回落，市场价格长期低位运 行，导致利润率大幅收缩。公司采取的应对措施主要包括：响应行业"反内卷"政策措施，主动实施减 产；优化产能产线布局，合理控制产能投放节奏，提高成本管控能力；采取有效措施处置闲置低效资 产，回笼资金；严控带息负债规模，压缩资本开支，降低财务杠杆等。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market continues to show a strong trend, with the main contract reaching 1192.00 CNY/ton, a significant increase of 2.05% [1] Industry Summary - As of December 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.4993 million tons, an increase of 0.005 million tons from the previous week, reflecting a growth rate of 0.33% [2] - The total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises is 1.386 million tons (including some external warehouse inventories), which is an increase of 0.012 million tons from December 11, with a growth rate of 0.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%. Among this, the heavy soda ash inventory is 644,000 tons, which has decreased by 0.002 million tons, a decline of 0.3% [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Jianxin Futures, the soda ash market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure that is difficult to resolve quickly. Although cost support is gradually emerging, the driving force remains limited. Without significant changes in the supply-demand structure, prices are expected to continue fluctuating at low levels, with a cautious approach recommended towards rebound trends [4] - According to Wukuang Futures, as enterprises resume production and new capacity in the Alashan region is expected to be released, market supply pressure is gradually becoming apparent. Downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, with procurement mainly focused on just-in-time inventory replenishment, leading to low stocking willingness. Additionally, increased cold repairs in glass production lines further suppress demand for soda ash. In the short term, without significant positive stimuli, soda ash prices are expected to remain under pressure [4]

Core Viewpoint - The MMA industry chain is experiencing a downturn, with prices hitting historical lows due to a supply-demand imbalance and weak cost support, leading to expectations of continued low prices in the near future [1] Price Trends - The traditional peak season in October did not boost the MMA industry, instead marking the beginning of a downward trend across the entire chain, with MMA prices occasionally rebounding but lacking sufficient upward momentum [2] - The average price of MMA in November fell by 6.67% month-on-month, while PMMA saw a nearly 4% decline [2] - The annual average price for MMA in 2023 was 10,270 yuan, down 25.3% from 2024, and PMMA's average price was 14,643 yuan, down 17.11% from 2024 [2] Market Dynamics - As the year ends, production companies are under pressure to recover funds, leading to a willingness to lower prices despite already low levels [3] - The price decline is compressing profit margins across the industry chain, with upstream acetone industry losses expanding from 200-300 yuan in October and November to 800-900 yuan by mid-December [4] - The profit distribution is currently skewed towards the downstream PMMA segment, which maintains some profitability due to smaller price declines compared to MMA and a concentrated market structure [4] Supply and Demand Imbalance - The mismatch in the expansion pace of upstream and downstream capacities, coupled with weak terminal demand, is weakening the synergistic effects within the industry chain [5] - 2023 saw significant capacity additions for key MMA raw materials and MMA itself, with new large-scale acetone facilities coming online and increased import expectations [5] - Demand for PMMA, the largest consumer of MMA, is not keeping pace with supply growth, facing pressures in traditional application areas like construction and advertising [6]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货聚烯烃年报 仍将处于产能高峰期，偏弱运行 20251215 萧勇辉 交易咨询号：Z0019917 从业资格号：F03091536 0769-22110802 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 宏观与能源：全球经济增速放缓，国内地产业仍不景气，经济增速下降；原油偏弱，煤炭持稳。 观点:2025年，在国内经济增速下降，房地产不景气背景下，聚烯烃整体维持高新增产能投放压力， 低开工率，低利润的 ...

Economic Outlook - The meeting emphasized the need to address the "strong supply and weak demand" issue, indicating a shift in focus from "demand insufficiency" to a more precise diagnosis of economic challenges[4] - The long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy remains unchanged, providing a foundation for market confidence during the transition period[4] Policy Framework - The policy framework aims for a balance between short-term growth stabilization and long-term structural reforms, utilizing a "cross-cycle" systemic approach[4] - Fiscal policy will maintain a deficit rate of around 4.0% in 2026 to counteract downward pressures in real estate and local government finances[7] - Monetary policy will focus on stabilizing nominal GDP growth and improving corporate credit fundamentals, with a flexible approach to tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments[9] Key Tasks - The meeting outlined eight key tasks, focusing on nurturing new growth drivers and resolving existing risks[11] - A "rural and urban resident income increase plan" will be implemented to boost consumption and stabilize the income of a large flexible employment group[12] - Investment strategies will include increasing central budget investments and optimizing special bond usage to counteract declining fixed asset investment growth, which recorded a -0.5% year-on-year decline in the first three quarters[13] Innovation and Reform - The establishment of international technology innovation centers in major urban areas aims to enhance regional development and innovation ecosystems[14] - The meeting stressed the need to reduce institutional transaction costs and credit costs, addressing "involution" competition and promoting a unified market[15] Risk Management - The meeting proposed a dual approach to real estate risk management, focusing on "de-stocking" and controlling new supply while encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing[16] - Local government debt management will adopt a comprehensive and categorized approach to mitigate operational debt risks, indicating a shift towards more refined debt management strategies[16] Conclusion - The 2026 Chinese credit market is expected to enter a new phase characterized by marginal improvements, structural differentiation, and orderly risk clearance under a supportive macro policy environment[17]

Core Insights - The central economic work conference highlighted the structural contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand" as the main issue facing China's economy, emphasizing the need for a dual approach of expanding domestic demand while optimizing supply structure [1][7] - The conference reiterated the importance of "investing in people" alongside "investing in material," signaling a shift towards prioritizing human capital and social welfare in economic policy [2][8] - The concept of "international economic and trade struggles" was reaffirmed, indicating that external economic pressures will be a long-term variable in China's economic strategy [3][11] - The need for synergy between stock and incremental policies was emphasized to enhance macroeconomic regulation and address structural issues [4][12] Group 1: Economic Judgments - The conference identified "strong supply and weak demand" as a critical economic contradiction, necessitating a balanced approach to address consumption weakness and price declines [1][7] - It was noted that previous strategies focused primarily on demand expansion, but the current situation requires a more nuanced approach that includes supply-side adjustments [7] Group 2: Policy Framework - The "Five Musts" framework was introduced, emphasizing the integration of "investing in material" and "investing in people" to enhance economic growth and address current challenges [2][8] - The focus on human capital investment aims to improve productivity and support long-term economic development, particularly in technology and innovation sectors [9] Group 3: International Relations - The conference's emphasis on "international economic and trade struggles" reflects a strategic response to ongoing global trade tensions, particularly with the U.S., and highlights the importance of maintaining a high level of openness while enhancing technological self-sufficiency [3][11] Group 4: Macroeconomic Policies - The integration of stock and incremental policies is crucial for effective macroeconomic governance, with a focus on enhancing the effectiveness of both types of policies to stabilize economic growth [4][12][14] - The conference called for increased efforts in counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to address both short-term and long-term economic challenges [12][13] Group 5: Fiscal and Monetary Policies - Fiscal policy will maintain necessary deficits and spending levels, with an emphasis on supporting key projects and enhancing public welfare [5][16] - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with a focus on ensuring reasonable price recovery while supporting domestic demand and innovation [5][17] Group 6: Key Economic Tasks - The conference prioritized "domestic demand-led growth" as a key economic task, with specific actions to boost consumption and increase residents' income [6][18] - The emphasis on urban renewal and strategic projects aims to stimulate investment and consumption, aligning with broader economic goals [20] Group 7: Market Integration and Competition - The conference highlighted the need for a unified national market and deeper measures to combat "involution" in competition, aiming to enhance market efficiency and resource allocation [7][21][22] Group 8: Real Estate Market Stability - The focus on stabilizing the real estate market includes city-specific policies to manage supply and demand, as well as measures to address local government debt risks [8][23][24]

01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 高库存下迎来淡季， PVC创新低 PVC周报 2025/12/13 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2550元/吨，周同比持平；山东电石价格报2930元/吨，周同比上涨25元/吨；兰炭陕西中料870元/吨，周同比持 平。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润持续下滑，乙烯制利润低位运行，目前估值中性偏低。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率79.4%，环比下降0.5%；其中电石法79.7%，环比下降3%；乙烯法78.9%，环比上升5.5%。上周供应端负荷小幅下降，主 因宁波镇洋、宜宾天原、河南宇航开工下降，下周预期负荷回升。12月整体负荷预期仍然在高位，减产幅度偏小，叠加新装置释放产量，供 应压力较大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面随着印度BIS认证政策撤销和反倾销税率市场预期不落地，年末出口 ...

Group 1 - The external environment is assessed positively, with exports growing by 5.4% from January to November, indicating resilience against external shocks [1][13] - The upcoming year is expected to maintain high export growth due to dual resilience in market share and external demand [1][13] Group 2 - The policy approach is shifting from extraordinary measures to more conventional methods, emphasizing the effectiveness of existing policies rather than relying on new incremental policies [2][14] - The overall economic cycle has improved, with indicators like M1 and corporate deposits showing recovery, suggesting a gradual move away from extraordinary policy dependence [2][14] Group 3 - Risk management pressure has decreased, with significant risks in real estate and hidden debts being largely controlled, allowing the government to focus on other areas like reform and opening up [3][15] Group 4 - Fiscal support is expected to decrease, with budget growth rates for 2023-2025 set at 3.3%, 5.1%, and 5.1%, respectively, aligning closely with economic targets [4][5][16] - The fiscal deficit is projected to remain around 4% in 2026, indicating a stabilization rather than an increase in fiscal deficit rates [5][17] Group 5 - The economy is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with strong supply but weak demand, leading to challenges in domestic consumption and employment [6][18] - The nominal GDP growth is anticipated to rise from 4.0% in 2025 to approximately 4.5% in 2026, with CPI expected at around 0.7% and PPI at -1.4% [6][18] Group 6 - The midstream manufacturing sector is expected to be the most stable and promising area, benefiting from external demand resilience and domestic supply constraints [7][19]

Economic Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, highlighted the normalization of external challenges and emphasized the "strong supply and weak demand" contradiction domestically[1] - The conference identified three main issues: external challenges, supply-demand imbalance, and risk hazards, indicating a worsening external environment due to trade frictions[1] Economic Goals and Macro Policies - The focus shifted from "preventing and resolving risks" to "better coordinating domestic economic work and international trade struggles," indicating a more proactive approach to external challenges[1] - Emphasis on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, moving away from merely stabilizing asset prices[1] - The goal is to achieve qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth, enhancing the sense of gain for residents and enterprises[1] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is to "maintain necessary" rather than "increase intensity," indicating a lower necessity for further increases in deficit and special bonds[1] - The emphasis on addressing local fiscal difficulties has increased, with a focus on ensuring basic livelihood, wages, and operations[1] - The conference proposed reforms to the local tax system to alleviate fiscal pressures, including adjustments to consumption tax and shared tax distribution[2] Monetary Policy - The goal of "price recovery" has been explicitly included as a monetary policy target, indicating a significant increase in the importance of price stability[3] - The terminology for interest rate cuts has shifted from "timely" to "flexible and efficient," suggesting a more responsive monetary policy approach[3] - There is a renewed focus on "expanding domestic demand," with monetary policy aimed at supporting consumption and innovation[3] Investment and Consumption - The conference aims to "stop the decline in investment," with specific measures to increase central budget investment and optimize the use of local government bonds[3] - A systematic approach to increasing residents' income has been proposed, moving from short-term subsidies to a comprehensive income increase plan[3] - The focus on consumption remains paramount, with a shift from merely increasing funding to improving efficiency in consumption policies[3] Real Estate Market - The strategy has shifted from "stopping the decline" to "stabilizing" the real estate market, emphasizing inventory reduction and supply optimization[4] - The conference proposed reforms to the housing provident fund system to support cross-city home purchases and improve access to funds[4] Capital Market - The focus has moved from stabilizing the stock market to ensuring the normal operation of market mechanisms and building confidence[4] - Emphasis on deepening capital market reforms and innovating financial services to better support new productive forces[4] Price and Competition - Price pressures are expected to decrease, with a lower emphasis on price targets compared to previous years[4] - The approach to "anti-involution" has shifted from "comprehensive rectification" to "in-depth rectification," indicating a focus on regulating competition and industry structure[4]

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 2025 年中央经济工作会议如何指引 A 股？ ——中央经济工作会议点评 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议整体延续政治局会议 相对积极的表态。短期来看，过去 10 年间，会后 7 天大盘风格往往相对占优。 行业表现上，从平均超额收益水平来看，近 5 年，社会服务、公用事业、煤炭、 传媒这五个行业会后 7 天平均超额水平相对更高。中长期来看，建议重点关注 会议"推动投资止跌回稳"下，明年重大项目的安排。 专题报告 相关报告 1、《如何理解 12 月政治局会 议？对资本市场意味着什么？ ———政策专题》2025-12-08 2、《今年以来服务消费政策部 署梳理，美政府结束停摆——国 内外产业政策周报（1116）》 2、《黄金税收政策调整，美国 与亚洲多国达成合作——国内 外产业政策周报（1103）》 3、《发布会召开介绍和解读四 中全会精神，有哪些增量信息？ — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （1025）》 4、《整治内卷聚焦价格治理， 特朗普威胁对华大幅加征关税 — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 ...