Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the overall social financing and credit exceeded expectations. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock rebounded by 0.2 pct to 8.9%, and credit data improved significantly, becoming one of the main supporting items for social financing [1][6]. - The improvement in short-term loans for enterprises and residents reflects the marginal boost in corporate business activities and residents' spending willingness. However, the impact of seasonal factors needs attention. The positive trend of medium- and long-term loans for residents and enterprises requires attention to its sustainability [1][6]. - The improvement in June's credit data indicates that incremental policies are gradually taking effect, and the economic fundamentals show "resilience." However, structural pressures still exist and may require further policy support [1][6]. - In the bond market, the overall favorable environment for the bond market in the third quarter has not fundamentally changed. The current prominent stock-bond "seesaw" effect is more of a disturbing factor. Long-term interest rates are expected to fluctuate narrowly around 1.65%, and there is no need to overly worry about adjustment risks [1][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1.1. In terms of total volume, government bonds and credit form support - In June, the new social financing was 419.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90.08 billion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing was 8.9%, up 0.2 pct from the previous month. The social financing growth rate (excluding government bonds) was 6.1%, up 0.078 pct from the previous month [7]. - Government bonds remained the core driving force for social financing and are expected to support the economic performance in the second quarter. Fiscal front-loading has been in place since the beginning of the year, and government bond issuance has increased significantly year-on-year. In the second quarter, the net financing of government bonds significantly exceeded the seasonal level [7]. - In June, the new RMB loans (social financing caliber) increased by 16.73 billion yuan year-on-year, exceeding expectations. The improvement in credit supply is due to the seasonal increase in banks' credit supply demand in the end-of-quarter month and the positive factors in economic operation with the continuous implementation of a package of stable growth policies [2][7]. 1.2. In terms of structure, short-term corporate loans performed brightly - In June, the new RMB loans were 224 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11 billion yuan. Among them, short-term loans for residents increased by 1.5 billion yuan year-on-year, medium- and long-term loans for residents increased by 1.51 billion yuan year-on-year, short-term loans for enterprises increased by 49 billion yuan year-on-year, and medium- and long-term loans for enterprises increased by 4 billion yuan year-on-year [13]. - Residents' willingness to increase leverage improved moderately. The "618" promotion and summer travel plans in June may have led to the concentrated release of household consumption demand, and policies such as trade-in of consumer goods also provided support [13]. - Medium- and long-term loans for residents are a comprehensive reflection of the relief of early mortgage repayment pressure and the year-on-year decline in real estate transactions. The reduction of existing mortgage rates may reduce early mortgage repayment, but the reduction of deposit rates in May may increase the pressure [13]. - Short-term corporate loans continued to improve year-on-year, becoming the main supporting item for new credit. This may be due to the end-of-quarter impulse and the implementation of structural monetary policy tools in early May [14]. - The impact of replacement bond issuance on medium- and long-term corporate loans was marginally relieved. The low base in the same period last year and the improvement in corporate operations, as reflected in the PMI data, also contributed to the increase [14]. 1.3. Under the low-base effect, the year-on-year growth of M1 was high - In June, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.3%, up 0.4% from the previous month and 2.1% from the same period last year. The year-on-year growth rate of M1 was 4.6%, up 2.3% from the previous month and 6.3% from the same period last year [22]. - The increase in residents' deposits was 247 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33 billion yuan. Non-financial corporate deposits increased by 177.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.73 billion yuan. Fiscal deposits decreased by 82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 700 million yuan. Non-bank deposits decreased by 52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34 billion yuan [22]. - The year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates of M1 and M2 both improved, and the year-on-year growth of M1 was significant. This is mainly due to the low-base effect caused by the "manual interest compensation" rectification in April last year and the bond bull market, which led to a decline in M1 and M2 growth last year [22]. - The continuous fiscal efforts at the end of the quarter also supported the growth of M1 and M2. The net financing scale of government bonds in the second quarter this year was significantly higher than that in the same period last year, and fiscal expenditure was strong [23]. - The phased easing of external tariff games and the continuous strengthening of domestic stable growth policies boosted corporate business expectations and residents' consumption confidence, which may have promoted the activation of general deposits [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In June 2025, credit performance was not weak, with corporate short - term loans being the main support and bills "yielding space" for credit. Supported by government bond issuance, the social financing growth rate remained high. Due to the low - base effect after the ban on manual interest supplements last year and corporate sector's redemption of wealth management products, M1 and M2 growth rates rebounded significantly [1][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Credit: Bills "Yield Space" to Corporate Short - term Loans - **Resident Sector**: In June, resident short - term loans increased by 26.21 billion yuan, 1.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year, rebounding from the previous month due to the shopping festival effect. Resident medium - and long - term credit increased by 33.53 billion yuan, 1.51 billion yuan more than the same period last year. However, the year - on - year growth rate of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was - 8.6%, with the decline rate expanding compared to the previous month, indicating a weaker sprint than last year [1][12]. - **Corporate Sector**: In June, corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, 40 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and the growth rate remained around 7.1%. Corporate short - term loans increased significantly, with an increase of 1.16 trillion yuan, 490 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Bill financing decreased by 410.9 billion yuan, 317.6 billion yuan less than the same period last year [2][14][20]. Social Financing: Government Bonds Still Provide Support, and Corporate Bond Issuance Willingness Continues - **Government Bonds**: In June, government bond issuance was large, with an increase of 1.35 trillion yuan, 503.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. According to the current issuance plan, government bonds may still support social financing in July, with a net financing of about 1.4 trillion yuan and a year - on - year increase of about 700 billion yuan. From August to the end of the year, it may turn to a year - on - year decrease [3][23]. - **Corporate Bonds**: In June, corporate bond issuance was still strong, with an increase of 24.22 billion yuan, 3.22 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The new policy on science and technology innovation bonds may drive corporate bond financing. Unaccepted bills decreased by 18.99 billion yuan, close to the same period last year and at a seasonal low, indicating a continuous conversion from off - balance - sheet bills to on - balance - sheet [3][27]. Deposits: End - of - Quarter Deposit Rush, Significant Increase in M1 and M2 Growth Rates - **M1**: In June, the new - caliber M1 increased by 5 trillion yuan, 2.6 trillion yuan more than the same period in 2024, at a seasonally high level. The year - on - year growth rate rose from 2.3% to 4.6% [4][30]. - **M2**: Among the M2 components, non - bank deposits were significantly lower than the seasonal level, while corporate deposits increased significantly as the main support. Corporate customers' redemption of wealth management products helped banks boost general deposits at the end of the quarter. In June, inter - bank deposits decreased by 520 billion yuan, 340 billion yuan less than the same period in 2024. Corporate deposits increased by 1.7773 trillion yuan, 777.3 billion yuan more than last year. After the cross - quarter in July, corporate sector deposits may flow out, disturbing the bank's liability side [4][35].

Group 1 - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the issuance of government bonds supported a slight increase in social financing growth in June [1] - Looking ahead, social financing performance may continue to be supported by the shift in the main line of debt reduction towards stable growth, along with the traditional accelerated issuance of government bonds around mid-year [1] - On the credit side, banks increased lending on the supply side due to the half-year end timing and the low base from the previous year, with significant growth in short-term loans to enterprises, while medium and long-term loan issuance remained relatively stable year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The report suggests that corporate financing sentiment remains cautious amid trade friction, and current mortgage demand is still at a relatively low level based on real estate sales data [1] - The recovery in the retail sector is expected to depend on the implementation of previous comprehensive policies and subsequent incremental policies [1] - M1 improvement is mainly driven by a low base and the recovery of corporate funding, while the increase in M2 reflects the stability of bank liabilities, which helps maintain a loose liquidity environment [1] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China emphasized "technological innovation + service consumption" as the dual focus of monetary policy during a press conference on July 14 [1] - CITIC Securities believes that structural easing will become the main line of policy in the next phase, while total policies such as interest rate cuts may remain on hold [1] - In the short term, this approach is expected to help stabilize the credit environment, but long-term attention is needed on the transmission effects and the pace of real economy recovery [1]

21世纪经济报道记者余纪昕 上海报道 7月14日，中国人民银行发布6月金融数据。数据显示，2025年6月末社会融资规模存量为430.22万亿 元，同比增长8.9%。总体来看，金融总量保持合理增长，主要指标增速略有回升，支持实体经济力度 稳固。 其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额为265.22万亿元，同比增长7%；对实体经济发放的外币贷款 折合人民币余额为1.22万亿元，同比下降26.6%；委托贷款余额为11.18万亿元，同比持平；信托贷款余 额为4.45万亿元，同比增长5.5%；未贴现的银行承兑汇票余额为2.08万亿元，同比下降7.4%；企业债券 余额为33.13万亿元，同比增长3.5%；政府债券余额为88.74万亿元，同比增长21.3%；非金融企业境内 股票余额为11.89万亿元，同比增长2.9%。 中信证券首席经济学家明明告诉记者，6月份的信贷总量与结构均呈现出边际改善之势。6月新增信贷 2.24万亿元，同比多增约1100亿元，一方面源于政策刺激下实体融资需求边际改善，另一方面也和2024 年6月低基数有关。拆分来看，企业中长贷结束了同比少增的情况，是本月金融数据的一大亮点；票据 融资上，本次冲量特征并 ...

Group 1 - Consumer inflation expectations for the next year have decreased to 3%, the lowest level in five months, down from 3.2% [1] - The median inflation expectations for the next three and five years remain unchanged at 3% and 2.6% respectively [1] - There is a decline in uncertainty regarding price pressures in both one-year and three-year expectations [1] Group 2 - There are mixed signals regarding the labor market; the likelihood of unemployment in the next 12 months has decreased to the lowest level since December of the previous year [2] - Consumers are slightly more optimistic about their financial situation, with a decrease in the proportion of households expecting worse economic conditions in a year [2] - The proportion of households facing difficulties in obtaining credit has decreased, and the likelihood of missing minimum payments in the next three months is at its lowest since May of the previous year [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, particularly for low-priced consumer goods and imported durable goods due to ongoing uncertainties and potential economic risks [5]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index rebounded significantly in June, reaching 60.5, up 15.9% from May's 52.2, indicating a recovery from previous declines [8][9]. - Retail sales in May 2025 were $715.42 billion, a 0.9% month-over-month decline, marking the largest single-month drop since March 2023 [9]. - Inflation data showed a mild increase in May, with the CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year, below market expectations, but long-term inflation risks remain [11][13]. - Employment data showed a mixed picture, with non-farm payrolls adding 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding expectations, but revisions indicated a slowdown in job growth [15][19]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The consumer confidence index rebounded in June, reflecting a recovery from previous declines, with inflation expectations decreasing from 6.6% to 5.1% [8]. - Retail sales data for May showed a significant decline, particularly in durable goods, as the demand normalized following a previous surge [9]. - Inflation data indicated a mild increase, with CPI rising 2.4% year-over-year, but long-term inflation concerns persist due to potential tariff impacts [11][13]. - Employment data showed a stable job market, but with signs of sectoral divergence, particularly in manufacturing and services [15][17]. Essential Consumption - Beverage and tobacco sectors outperformed the market, with beverage sales showing resilience, while alcoholic beverages and dairy products continued to underperform [2][34]. - Alcoholic beverage retail sales in April were $5.63 billion, with a year-over-year increase of 1.6%, but overall sales volume continued to decline [2][29]. - Dairy product shipments totaled $13.61 billion in April, with a year-over-year increase of 2.5%, indicating a stable but lackluster performance [34]. - Beverage shipments reached $11.97 billion in April, with a year-over-year increase of 4.7%, showcasing strong demand in essential categories [34]. Optional Consumption - The restaurant sector showed resilience with retail sales of $97.36 billion in May, a year-over-year increase of 5.3%, but a month-over-month decline of 0.9% [39]. - Department store sales in May were $76.76 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 2.2%, but a continued weakening trend [42]. - Apparel retail sales reached $26.18 billion in May, with a year-over-year increase of 3.7%, but a decline in momentum due to the end of pre-tariff purchasing [44]. Market Performance - The consumer sector saw a broad rally in May, with significant gains in essential and discretionary categories, although valuations remain at historical highs [4]. - The consumer discretionary ETF saw a net inflow of $553 million, while the essential consumer ETF had a net inflow of $522 million, indicating investor interest [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises maintaining a cautious approach towards the consumer sector, particularly in light of ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and economic growth [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was a volatile upward trend, with the 30 - year variety showing a relatively strong trend. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market, and Treasury bond futures may experience a slightly more volatile trend. For trading - type investments, a band - operation strategy is recommended [5][37][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a volatile upward trend. By the end of the week, the 30 - year Treasury bond rose 0.71%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.14%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond rose 0.09% [5] Consumption Data - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41326 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 184324 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [8] - In May, driven by the trade - in policy, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture in units above the designated size increased by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively. The sales of basic daily necessities and some upgraded consumer goods also showed good growth momentum. The retail sales of automobiles in units above the designated size increased by 1.1% year - on - year [10] Investment Data - From January to May, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0%. Among them, the broad - based infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42%, the narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, the manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, and the real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% [13] Real Estate Market - From January to May, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing nationwide was 35315 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, and the sales volume was 34091 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% [15] - In the first half of June, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10% [17] - In May, the sales prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The sales prices of second - hand residential properties in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [21] Service Industry and Industrial Production - In May, the national service industry production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year. Among them, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries showed relatively fast growth [23] - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 5.7%. The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 95.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [26][28] Unemployment Rate - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the same as the same period last year [31] Capital Market Interest Rates - This week, the capital market interest rates remained stable. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.37%, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.65%, a slight decline. The loan prime rate (LPR) announced on June 20 was the same as last month [34] Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The market logic is that from January to May, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was lower than market expectations, while May's consumption growth was significantly better than expected. Exports maintained a relatively high positive growth, industrial production grew steadily and rapidly, the unemployment rate decreased slightly, and the social financing scale and credit data were close to market expectations. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market [37] - The trading strategy is that trading - type investments should adopt a band - operation strategy [38]

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Data - In May 2025, China's new social financing scale reached 22,894 billion RMB, exceeding the market expectation of 20,505 billion RMB and significantly higher than the previous month's 11,591 billion RMB[6] - New RMB loans in May 2025 amounted to 6,200 billion RMB, below the market expectation of 8,026 billion RMB and higher than the previous month's 2,800 billion RMB[6] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, maintaining a high growth level compared to the previous month[7] - Government bonds were a key support for social financing, with government bond financing in May 2025 reaching 14,633 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion RMB[33] Group 2: M1 and M2 Trends - M1 growth in May 2025 was 2.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved liquidity in the economy[38] - M2 growth was 7.9%, slightly down from 8.0% in the previous month, reflecting a stable but slightly declining trend[38] - The gap between M1 and M2 growth rates has narrowed, suggesting a shift in deposit structures and liquidity dynamics[38] Group 3: Credit Performance and Structure - Total credit in May 2025 was weak, with new loans of 6,200 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 3,300 billion RMB, indicating cautious lending behavior[10] - Corporate loans showed a significant contraction, with new corporate loans at 5,300 billion RMB, down 2,100 billion RMB year-on-year[16] - Household loans saw mixed performance, with short-term loans decreasing by 208 billion RMB and medium to long-term loans increasing by 746 billion RMB, indicating a slight improvement in household credit conditions[19]

报 告 正 文 有效融资需求暂显不足。 5月社融同比保持多增，除了政府债融资保持较高规模以外，低利率带动企业债券融资好转。不过，5月信贷依然偏弱，一方面化债对于企 业贷款的替代效应仍然存在，关税政策也继续影响着企业的融资意愿，反映在企业短期贷款和票据融资整体走弱；另一方面，实体部门融资需求仍然偏弱，降息后 居民的加杠杆意愿尚未有明显增强，财政政策有待加力提效 。 财政资金拨付提振M1。 5月M1增速反弹，一是主要受到去年同期整顿存款"手工补息"带来的低基数影响，二是政府债发行前置，企业现金流趋于改善。5月M2增速 小幅回落，主因5月财政多收少支背景下，政府存款对居民和企业存款增长构成一定压制，不过低基数效应仍然存在。5月末，M2-M1增速差收窄，指向财政资金投 放至实体带动企业资金活化程度好转 。 直接融资支撑社融同比延续多增。 2025年5月社会融资规模增量为2.29万亿元，同比多增额收窄至2271亿元，直接融资是主要的支撑。一方面，5月政府债券融资规 模抬升至1.46万亿元，但同比多增额缩减至2367亿元；另一方面，企业债券净融资规模下降至1496亿元，同比多增额扩大至1211亿元。5月人民币贷款规模增加 ...

信贷同比延续少增。 5月份新增人民币贷款6200亿元，同比少增额收窄至3300亿元。其中，居民部门贷款新增540亿元，同比由多减转为少增217亿元，短期贷款减 少208亿元、中长期贷款增加746亿元，从同比变化来看，居民短贷同比多减额略降至451亿元，中长贷同多增额收窄至232亿元。企业部门贷款增加5300亿元，主要 由中长贷和短贷贡献，票据融资较弱，同比少增额降至2100亿元，从分项来看，企业短贷增加1100亿元，同比由多减转为多增2300亿元，企业中长贷增加3300亿 元，同比少增额继续扩大至1700亿元，票据融资规模增加746亿元，同比少增2826亿元 。 报 告 正 文 有效融资需求暂显不足。 5月社融同比保持多增，除了政府债融资保持较高规模以外，低利率带动企业债券融资好转。不过，5月信贷依然偏弱，一方面化债对于企 业贷款的替代效应仍然存在，关税政策也继续影响着企业的融资意愿，反映在企业短期贷款和票据融资整体走弱；另一方面，实体部门融资需求仍然偏弱，降息后 居民的加杠杆意愿尚未有明显增强，财政政策有待加力提效 。 财政资金拨付提振M1。 5月M1增速反弹，一是主要受到去年同期整顿存款"手工补息"带来的 ...