1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the decline of manufacturing PMI, weaker than the seasonal level and with weakening supply and demand, may indicate certain downward pressure on the Q4 economy [2][7]. - Both domestic and external demands declined, and price indicators did not continue the improvement trend of last month. The differentiated structure of "strong raw material prices and weak finished - product prices" may restrict the repair of corporate profits [2][7]. - The business climate of large enterprises fell below the boom - bust line, and the business climates of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries significantly declined [2][7]. - The business climate of the non - manufacturing industry is mainly driven by holiday service consumption, and the overall expansion strength is still weak [2][7]. - The trading logic of the bond market in Q4 focuses on the weakening economic fundamentals and the expectation of monetary easing, and a repair market may be welcomed. It is expected that the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond (tax - exempt) may decline to 1.65% - 1.7%, and the yield of the taxable bond may decline to 1.7% - 1.75% [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 pct from the previous month, lower than the Wind consensus forecast of 50.0%. The non - manufacturing business activity index slightly increased by 0.1 pct to 50.1%, slightly higher than the boom - bust line and lower than the Wind consensus forecast of 50.3%. Among them, the service industry business activity index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.1 pct, and the construction industry business activity index was 49.1%, a decrease of 0.2 pct [5]. 3.2 Event Comment - **Manufacturing PMI and economic pressure**: The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 fell back to a nearly two - year low. The production index and new order index decreased by 2.2 pct and 0.9 pct respectively to 49.7% and 48.8%. The procurement volume index decreased significantly by 2.6 pct to 49.0%, and the difference between the "finished - product inventory - on - hand orders" index widened by 0.6 pct to 3.6 pct. The weak pattern of production and demand was partly due to the pre - release of some demand before the National Day holiday and partly reflected the lack of endogenous momentum, indicating certain downward pressure on the Q4 economy [7]. - **Demand and price situation**: In October, external demand did not continue its resilience, and the new export order index significantly declined by 1.9 pct to 45.9%. The new order index for domestic demand also turned from rising to falling. The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index both decreased by 0.7 pct, recording 52.5% and 47.5% respectively. The difference between them remained at 5.0 pct, and the main raw material purchase price index was still in the expansion range. The "strong raw material prices and weak finished - product prices" structure may restrict the repair of corporate profits [7]. - **Enterprise and industry changes**: Among enterprises, the PMIs of large and small enterprises both fell by 1.1 pct to 49.9% and 47.1% respectively, and the PMI of medium - sized enterprises slightly fell by 0.1 pct to 48.7%. In terms of industries, the PMIs of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries were 50.5% and 50.2% respectively, a decline of 1.1 pct and 1.7 pct from the previous month. The consumer goods industry remained in the expansion range, slightly falling by 0.5 pct to 50.1%, while the PMI of the basic raw material industry further dropped to 47.3%. The overall market expectation was optimistic, with the production and business activity expectation index at 52.8%, and the expectation indexes of industries such as non - ferrous metals and transportation equipment rising to the high - level boom range above 60% [7]. - **Non - manufacturing industry situation**: In October, the non - manufacturing PMI slightly increased by 0.1 pct to 50.1%, and the service industry PMI rose to 50.2%. The on - hand order index fell by 0.8 pct while the new order index remained flat, indicating that the holiday effect was the main driver. The business activity indexes of industries such as transportation, accommodation, and culture and entertainment were all in the high - level boom range above 60%, but industries such as real estate continued to be sluggish. The construction industry business activity index turned from rising to falling, decreasing by 0.2 pct to 49.1%, possibly dragged down by the slowdown of holiday construction and the decline of post - holiday real estate sales [7]. - **Bond market outlook**: Currently, the endogenous momentum for the repair of production and demand may be limited. On the day when the PMI data was released, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond decreased by 0.95 BP. The economic fundamentals still face a pattern of weak supply and demand, the pressure on enterprises for passive inventory replenishment continues, and the ex - factory - raw material price gap still restricts the repair of corporate profits. Although 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been put in place and local governments have an additional 200 billion yuan of special bond quotas, the sustainability of the recovery of real estate sales and the transmission effect of policy funds on infrastructure investment still need to be observed. The trading logic of the bond market in Q4 focuses on the weakening economic fundamentals and the expectation of monetary easing, and a repair market may be welcomed. It is expected that the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond (tax - exempt) may decline to 1.65% - 1.7%, and the yield of the taxable bond may decline to 1.7% - 1.75% [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the bond market is expected to break through and start a downward trend, with a higher probability of yield decline. If the market restarts the expectation of interest rate cuts, the long - term interest rate is expected to challenge the low level before the bond market adjustment in July. The 10 - year treasury bond yield may fall to 1.70%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield may drop to the range of 2.00 - 2.05%. [7][61] - The fundamental data in October may be weak. With the prior implementation of fiscal and quasi - fiscal policies in the fourth quarter, interest rate cuts may become a more flexible incremental stimulus tool, and the bond market may restart the trading of the expectation of "looser monetary policy". [2][30] - The potential negative factors in the bond market in November, such as government bond supply and bond fund redemption fee regulations, may have a lower - than - expected impact due to regulatory and market precautions. [3][34] - Institutional behavior in November may affect the market through two main lines. The short - and long - end assets may be repriced, and the profit - taking power of the allocation disk may slow down the decline of interest rates but is less likely to reverse the upward trend. [6][45] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. October Bond Market: Calm After the Storm - In October, the long - term interest rate continued the trading logic of September and achieved a "step - down" due to the decline in risk appetite caused by the US tariff pressure. The 10 - year treasury bonds generally showed a "head - and - shoulders top" pattern, indicating that the interest rate may have basically completed the topping process. [1] - The bond market pricing in October was mainly based on three main lines: when the central bank would buy bonds, the evolution of Sino - US relations, and the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees. The market could be divided into three stages. [13] - In terms of various bond market varieties in October, interest - rate bonds recovered, and credit bonds were stronger than interest - rate bonds. The yields of most bonds declined. [17][18] 2. Macro - Narrative Vacuum Period: Rising Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts - In November, before the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in December, the market will enter a macro - narrative vacuum period. Whether the macro - economic data in October can boost the expectation of interest rate cuts will be the key to bond market pricing. [22] - The manufacturing PMI in October was lower than expected, with significant drag from production and new order sub - items, indicating a possible economic slowdown. [22] - The end - of - month bill interest rates approaching zero in October suggest that credit demand may have returned to a low point. [23][24] - High - frequency price data indicates that the year - on - year decline of PPI in October may widen again. [29] 3. Government Bond Supply and Bond Fund Redemption Fee Regulations: Apparent Negative Factors - The potential negative factors in the bond market in November are the significant increase in government bond net supply compared to October and the uncertainty of the official implementation of the new regulations on public bond fund redemption fees. However, the actual impact may be lower than expected due to regulatory and market precautions. [3][34] - The slow issuance of local government bonds in October is likely to be accelerated in November and December. It is estimated that the net supply of government bonds in November and December will be 1.23 trillion and 0.81 trillion yuan respectively. The large - scale supply in November may prompt the central bank to strengthen liquidity support, and the capital market may remain stable. [3][35] - If the new regulations on bond fund redemption fees are strictly implemented as in the solicitation draft, the bond market may experience a short - term shock at the time of implementation, especially credit - type bond funds may be more affected. [5][40] 4. Institutional Behavior: Returning to a Neutral Variable - In November, institutional behavior may affect the market through two main lines. The short - and long - end assets may be repriced. After the central bank announced the resumption of treasury bond trading operations, the market's willingness to price short - term varieties increased, and the long - term interest rate may decline as the negative factors in the bond market are exhausted and institutional investors pursue year - end performance. [6][45] - The profit - taking power of the allocation disk may slow down the decline of interest rates but is less likely to reverse the upward trend. Banks' self - operated institutions may prefer to take profits during the bond market's upward period. [51] 5. Bond Market Breakthrough: Starting a Downward Trend - Currently, the bond market has two characteristics: low duration and limited short - selling power. The risk of trading long - term bonds is relatively controllable. [55][58] - It is predicted that the bond market yield in November is more likely to decline. The bond market strategy in November can consider increasing duration on rallies, and priority can be given to ultra - long treasury bonds or policy - financial bonds with sufficient spread protection. Tax - inclusive bonds may perform better. [7][61]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term market is mainly volatile. Traders should pay attention to the impact of the capital market and equity market fluctuations on the bond market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Influencing Factors - **L利多因素**: The central bank increased the volume of MLF to maintain abundant liquidity, and the loose capital market supported the bond market sentiment. The basic consensus reached in the Sino - US economic and trade consultations led to a phased increase in market risk appetite [2]. - **利空因素**: The strengthening of the equity market suppressed the bond market sentiment, with a significant stock - bond seesaw effect. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds increased, and the adjustment of spot bonds dragged down the performance of futures [2]. 3.2 Market Data - **国债到期收益率**: Data on 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y treasury bond yields from April 2024 to August 2025 are presented [3]. - **资金利率**: Data on deposit - type institutional pledged repurchase weighted interest rates (1 - day and 7 - day) and 7 - day reverse repurchase rates from December 2023 to June 2025 are shown [3]. - **国债期限利差**: Data on the term spreads of 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y from April 2024 to August 2025 are provided [4][5]. - **国债期货持仓**: Data on the positions of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from December 2015 to December 2023 are given [8]. - **国债期货成交**: Data on the trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from April 2024 to August 2025 are presented [9]. - **国债期货基差**: Data on the basis of the current - quarter contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided, with different time ranges for each [10][11][12][14]. - **国债期货跨期价差**: Data on the current - quarter minus next - quarter spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are given, with different time ranges for each [18][20]. - **跨品种价差**: Data on the TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL cross - variety spreads are provided, with different time ranges for each [21][22].

Overall Performance - As of October 23, 2025, there are 982 public pure fixed-income products with a duration of 2-3 years, of which 694 have complete net value disclosures. The average net value growth rate over the past year is 3.29%, with an average maximum drawdown of 0.16% [5] - Among these products, 615 achieved positive returns each quarter, representing 88.6% of the total [5] - The top three products by net value growth rate are: Minsheng Wealth's "Fuzhu Fixed Income Stable Three-Year Closed No. 2 Product A" at 4.88%, Huaxia Wealth's "Fixed Income Debt Closed Product No. 79S" at 4.65%, and Zhongyou Wealth's "Zhongyou Wealth Hongjin Closed 2023 No. 40 (Anying Fund) RMB Financial Product" at 4.63% [5] Highlighted Product Analysis - Minsheng Wealth's "Fuzhu Fixed Income Stable Three-Year Closed No. 2 Product A" primarily invests in medium to high-grade credit bonds, achieving a net value growth rate of 6.985% since inception. As of the 2025 semi-annual report, the bond holding ratio is 91.69%, with the top ten holdings being credit bond assets, accounting for 41.94% [6] - Minsheng Wealth attributes the performance to the continuous strength of the equity market and the impact of new public fund sales regulations, leading to a decline in bond yields, particularly in long-end trading varieties. The outlook suggests that the equity market's expectations and institutional behaviors will negatively impact the bond market, indicating a lower probability of success in the short to medium term [6]

截至2025年10月31日 13:13，30年国债ETF博时(511130)上涨0.30%，最新价报107.83元。拉长时间看，截至2025年10月30日，30年国债ETF博时近1周累计上 涨0.60%。 流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘中换手13.25%，成交24.33亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至10月30日，30年国债ETF博时近1周日均成交35.61亿 元。 资金流入方面，30年国债ETF博时最新资金净流入1.95亿元。拉长时间看，近5个交易日内有4日资金净流入，合计"吸金"6.04亿元，日均净流入达1.21亿元。 30年国债ETF博时紧密跟踪上证30年期国债指数，上证30年期国债指数从上海证券交易所上市的国债中，选取符合中国金融期货交易所30年期国债期货近月 合约可交割条件的债券作为指数样本，以反映沪市相应期限国债的整体表现。 以上产品风险等级为：中低 （此为管理人评级，具体销售以各代销机构评级为准） 风险提示：基金不同于银行储蓄和债券等固定收益预期的金融工具，不同类型的基金风险收益情况不同，投资人既可能分享基金投资所产生的收益，也可能 承担基金投资所带来的损失。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来 ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 342.6 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on October 30, with a net injection of 130.1 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 212.5 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing [1]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The end of the tax period has led to continued net injections by the central bank, resulting in a further easing of the interbank funding market. The overnight repo rate for deposit-taking institutions fell over 9 basis points to around 1.31%, with ample supply in the market [3]. - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 4.31% [3]. Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is at 1.64%, showing a slight decrease from the previous day [7]. Group 4: Bond Market Overview - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market have seen yields decline, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.19% and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.05% [13]. Group 5: International Relations and Economic Cooperation - Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump discussed economic and trade issues, emphasizing the importance of cooperation and the need to avoid a cycle of retaliation. Both sides aim to finalize agreements to enhance economic ties [14]. - The U.S. will cancel certain tariffs on Chinese goods, while China will adjust its countermeasures accordingly, indicating a potential thaw in trade relations [15]. Group 6: Financial Policy Developments - The Ministry of Finance and other departments issued a notice to improve duty-free shop policies to boost consumption, effective from November 1, 2025 [15]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced the expansion of pilot programs for pension financial products nationwide, with increased fundraising limits for financial institutions [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Referring to the experience of Japan and South Korea during their technology transformation phases, the technology bull market did not significantly impact the bond market. Bond investors need not overly worry about the ongoing technology bull market in the equity market. The linkage between stock and bond markets is more of a short - term factor, and long - term bond market pricing should still consider fundamental factors [1][3][31]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Overseas Experience of the Impact of the Technology Stock Bull Market on the Bond Market Japan: From "Trade - Oriented" to "Technology - Oriented" - After World War II, Japan implemented a "trade - oriented" economic strategy, achieving relatively high economic growth from 1956 - 1973. In the 1970s, due to the loss of labor dividends and the oil crisis, Japan shifted towards a technology - oriented economy [1][10]. - The government introduced a series of policies to support high - tech industries. The VLSI plan promoted the development of the semiconductor industry, leading to a technology stock bull market. From 1970 - 1985, the Nikkei 225 index rose from about 2300 to about 13000, and the information and communication industry index reached 31.75 in 1985, compared to 1 in January 1970 [13][14]. - From 1975 - 1985, the Japanese bond market was highly volatile, mainly due to the two oil crises in 1973 and 1980. The bond yield changed with inflation and policy interest rates, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was not significant. After 1980, there was a period of stock - bond double - bull [18]. South Korea: Comprehensive Promotion of Technology Transformation - South Korea's economic transformation was similar to Japan's, gradually shifting from labor - intensive to capital - intensive and then to technology - intensive. In 1986, it proposed a technology - oriented strategy and launched a series of plans to support high - tech industries [2][23]. - After 1986, the South Korean stock market entered two accelerated growth periods. In the first half of 1997, the stock market rebounded, led by the electrical and electronic equipment industry, while the national bond yield remained stable or declined, showing a simultaneous strengthening of stock and bond markets [2][26]. Comparison with China - China is currently in an important economic transformation stage, with the economic growth engine shifting from traditional industries to emerging industries, and the role of consumption in driving domestic demand increasing. China has formed a technology - led equity market bullish atmosphere [3][29]. - Similar to Japan and South Korea, the linkage between the stock and bond markets in China may be limited. The stock - bond seesaw effect in the third quarter was likely due to short - term factors, and the long - term bond market pricing depends on fundamental and policy factors [3][30].

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract down 0.27%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts rose by 0.13%, 0.16%, and 0.10% respectively [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with mid-to-short term bonds performing well. The yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" increased by 1.05 basis points to 1.8910%, while the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" saw a slight rise of 0.10 basis points to 1.8140% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 557.7 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on October 29, with a net injection of 419.5 billion yuan for the day [2] - The interbank market liquidity has turned loose, with the weighted average rate for repos falling, particularly the overnight repo rate dropping over 6 basis points to 1.40% [2] Operational Suggestions - The bond market is experiencing a divergence in trends, with short-term bonds supported by expectations of renewed central bank bond purchases, while long-term bonds are pressured by U.S.-China trade relations and rising risk appetite [3] - There is potential for short-term fluctuations in the bond market, but a recovery in market sentiment may present trading opportunities if there are event shocks leading to market adjustments [3]

Group 1 - As of October 29, public fund reports for the third quarter have been fully disclosed, with bond funds experiencing over 500 billion units of net redemptions, marking the highest net redemption among fund types [1][3] - The total scale of bond funds at the end of the third quarter was 10.58 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from 10.82 trillion yuan at the end of the second quarter [3] - Over 2,100 bond funds recorded net redemptions in the third quarter, accounting for nearly 55% of the total, with 292 funds having net redemptions exceeding 1 billion units [3] Group 2 - The overall yield of bond funds was suppressed in the third quarter, with many funds showing yields below 1%, and over 1,000 funds recording negative returns [6][7] - The yield on government bonds increased, with the one-year, three-year, five-year, and ten-year government bond yields rising by 12 basis points, 20 basis points, 22 basis points, and 35 basis points respectively compared to the end of the second quarter [6] - Convertible bond funds performed well, with some achieving returns exceeding 20%, benefiting from a strong equity market [7] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the bond market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, with expectations of a supportive central bank and reduced selling pressure due to lower fund durations [9][10] - The current rise in long-term interest rates is seen as a normal response to changes in fundamental expectations, but a significant and sustained increase is not anticipated due to weak economic growth [9] - The bond market is expected to return to being driven by economic fundamentals and monetary policy after the release of pressure on the liability side [10]

Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 29, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering, amounting to 557.7 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 138.2 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 419.5 billion yuan [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank's increased reverse repo operations have led to a loosening of the interbank market funding conditions, with the weighted average rate for repos falling, particularly the overnight repo rate for deposit institutions dropping over 6 basis points to 1.40% [3] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system also decreased to 1.38%, with supply around 100 billion yuan [3] - Non-bank institutions' overnight quotes for pledged certificates of deposit and credit bonds are around 1.45%, lower than the previous day's levels [3] - Market expectations remain positive, with the central bank's actions aimed at stabilizing the funding conditions at the end of the month [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64%, down over 2 basis points from the previous day [7] Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures show a decline of 0.27% for the 30-year main contract, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts increased by 0.13%, 0.16%, and 0.10% respectively [12] Key Economic Indicators - From January to September, state-owned enterprises reported total operating income of 613.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while total profits decreased by 1.6% to 316.70 billion yuan [13]